Australian Broker Call
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April 07, 2025
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| ALD - | Ampol | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Macquarie |
| BGL - | Bellevue Gold | Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Bell Potter |
| VEA - | Viva Energy | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Macquarie |
Overnight Price: $22.58
Macquarie rates ALD as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
Macquarie downgrades both Ampol and Viva Energy ((VEA)) to Neutral from Outperform due to lower assumed refining margins.
The analyst explains higher than expected US tariffs will result in a weaker outlook for oil demand with a flow-on impact on refining margins.
The broker lowers EPS estimates for Ampol by -10% and -12% for FY25/FY26 on forecast refining margins of US$8.44/US$10.11 per bbl, respectively, with ongoing high capex of around -$600m in 2025.
Target price falls -15% to $23.70.
Target price is $23.70 Current Price is $22.58 Difference: $1.12
If ALD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $29.78, suggesting upside of 41.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 94.00 cents and EPS of 166.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 181.0, implying annual growth of 252.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 95.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6. |
Forecast for FY26:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 190.00 cents and EPS of 200.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 210.0, implying annual growth of 16.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 165.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.32
Citi rates AOV as Buy (1) -
Citi has revisited Amotiv's outlook following a downgrade in FY25 revenue and EBITDA guidance, and weak commentary on 4WD and LPE segments.
The broker expects the 4WD division to improve, supported by expected RBA cuts. But increased uncertainty around the LPE outlook has prompted the analyst to apply a -20% discount to peers in its SOTP valuation.
The broker cut earnings forecasts on subdued consumer outlook and higher costs.
Buy maintained. Target cut to $12.35 from $14.13.
Target price is $12.35 Current Price is $7.32 Difference: $5.03
If AOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.65, suggesting upside of 70.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 40.40 cents and EPS of 72.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.8, implying annual growth of 14.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5. |
Forecast for FY26:
Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 42.40 cents and EPS of 75.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.9, implying annual growth of 5.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.1. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates AOV as Outperform (1) -
Amotiv released a FY25 trading update with the revenue guidance revised to "marginal revenue growth", Macquarie explains, and a "marginal" fall in underlying earnings (EBITDA) in FY25 against FY24.
This suggests an earnings downgrade of around -2% to -4% compared to previous consensus forecasts, the analyst highlights.
US tariffs are not expected to impact FY25 earnings with around 8% of revenue generated in the US. The downgrades resulted from soft demand for lighting, power and electrical; weaker new vehicle sales; softness in NZ and the RV, caravan and truck markets.
Macquarie lowers EPS estimates by -5.5% and -11.8% for FY25/FY26, respectively.
No change to the Outperform rating as the broker believes the earnings have been rebased and there is valuation support.
Target price falls -16% to $10.90.
Target price is $10.90 Current Price is $7.32 Difference: $3.58
If AOV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.65, suggesting upside of 70.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 36.90 cents and EPS of 82.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.8, implying annual growth of 14.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5. |
Forecast for FY26:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 38.60 cents and EPS of 85.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.9, implying annual growth of 5.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.1. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates AOV as Add (1) -
In a trading update, management at Amotiv has downgraded FY25 guidance to a marginal decline in earnings (EBITA), from previously expected growth, observes Morgans.
Management cited ongoing softness in its Lighting, Power & Electrical (LPE) and 4WD Accessories & Trailering segments, particularly across A&NZ.
The company also flagged approximately 8% exposure to the US market, where tariffs on South Korean and Thai imports are expected to compress LPE margins from FY26.
Despite near-term challenges, the broker highlights strong cash generation and the resilience of Amotiv’s largely non-discretionary revenue base.
Morgans reduces the target price to $10.75 from $12.95 and retains an Add rating.
Target price is $10.75 Current Price is $7.32 Difference: $3.43
If AOV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.65, suggesting upside of 70.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 41.00 cents and EPS of 83.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.8, implying annual growth of 14.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5. |
Forecast for FY26:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 83.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.9, implying annual growth of 5.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.1. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates AOV as Buy (1) -
Amotiv has downgraded its FY25 guidance, now anticipating marginal revenue growth and a slight decline in underlying EBITA compared with previous expectations for growth, driven by weaker demand in its Lighting, Power & Electrical (LPE) and 4WD segments.
Positively, UBS points out, demand remains robust in its Powertrain and Undercar division, and cost efficiencies and pricing actions flagged at the half-year are on track.
Tariffs recently introduced by the US on imports from South Korea and Thailand (25% and 36% respectively) are expected to have a limited financial impact in FY25, though Amotiv is assessing options to manage potential risks.
UBS maintains a Buy rating and a price target of $12.60, and earnings forecasts are unchanged pending further analysis.
Target price is $12.60 Current Price is $7.32 Difference: $5.28
If AOV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.65, suggesting upside of 70.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
UBS forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 86.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.8, implying annual growth of 14.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5. |
Forecast for FY26:
UBS forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 53.00 cents and EPS of 95.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.9, implying annual growth of 5.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.1. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ARB ARB CORPORATION LIMITED
Automobiles & Components
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Overnight Price: $28.49
Citi rates ARB as Neutral (3) -
Citi notes ARB Corp posted on social media suggesting it will have accessories for the Shark, and the first accessory will most probably be a Zenith Bar, compatible up to 12,000lbs, the broker details.
The analyst assesses the adoption of the ARB accessories against the Shark and believes, given the strong sales in Shark, it could be a positive for ARB Corp.
Neutral. Target price $39.54.
Target price is $39.54 Current Price is $28.49 Difference: $11.05
If ARB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $40.95, suggesting upside of 45.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 66.90 cents and EPS of 120.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 125.9, implying annual growth of 0.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.4. |
Forecast for FY26:
Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 75.70 cents and EPS of 136.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 141.7, implying annual growth of 12.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 76.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.16
Citi rates ASK as Buy (1) -
Citi notes the takeover for Abacus Storage King from Ki Corporation, which currently owns 49% of the REIT, and US-listed Public Storage for $1.47 per security, less any dividends or distributions declared after the takeover proposal.
The broker highlights this is a discount to the NTA valuation of around -8% compared to the current discount of circa -27.5%.
Citi believes the entry of Public Storage into the Australian market may increase competition and expects other REITs in the sub-sector to be well supported in the market, including Abacus Group ((ABG)) and National Storage REIT ((NSR)).
Buy rated with a $1.40 target.
Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.16 Difference: $0.24
If ASK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.37, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.20 cents and EPS of 6.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.2, implying annual growth of -41.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.4. |
Forecast for FY26:
Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.30 cents and EPS of 6.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.4, implying annual growth of 3.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $63.18
Macquarie rates ASX as Neutral (3) -
Macquarie highlights average daily trading volumes grew 14.3% in 3Q25 against a year previously and the 2Q25 volumes, which rose 6.8%.
The 3Q25 futures volumes per day rose 27.4% versus 3Q24, and volume growth for 90-day bank bills was up 33.8% and 3-year bonds up 28.8%, well above the broker's forecasts.
The analyst lifts EPS forecasts for ASX by 2.6% for FY25 and 1.7% for FY26. Target price slips to $65 from $66.50, with a Neutral rating retained.
Target price is $65.00 Current Price is $63.18 Difference: $1.82
If ASX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $63.34, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 224.00 cents and EPS of 264.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 260.9, implying annual growth of 6.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 219.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.3. |
Forecast for FY26:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 228.00 cents and EPS of 268.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 266.8, implying annual growth of 2.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 222.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates ASX as Sell (5) -
ASX delivered strong third-quarter trading activity, driven by heightened market volatility in March, resulting in double-digit growth in futures volumes (+30%) and cash equity turnover (+16%).
UBS remains cautious, maintaining a Sell rating due to ongoing execution and regulatory risks around the CHESS replacement project.
UBS has lowered its price target to $62.50 from $66.00, reflecting revised FY25 earnings forecasts slightly upward (+1.8%) but marginally lower for FY26 (-0.4%) due to softer equity markets.
The broker notes the stock trades at a high 23.8x forward PE, offering little appeal given the modest circa 3% EPS growth forecast over FY25-29. Earnings forecasts have been updated slightly.
Target price is $62.50 Current Price is $63.18 Difference: minus $0.68 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $63.34, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
UBS forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 224.00 cents and EPS of 264.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 260.9, implying annual growth of 6.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 219.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.3. |
Forecast for FY26:
UBS forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 227.00 cents and EPS of 267.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 266.8, implying annual growth of 2.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 222.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.15
Bell Potter rates BGL as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -
Bellevue Gold shares will remain suspended as the company hasn't been able to update FY25 production guidance, but it did announce 3Q production was 25.7koz. This was lower than Bell Potter's forecast of 36koz.
The company also announced a cash outflow of -$32m in 3Q which reduced the cash and bullion balance to $49m.
The broker expects 4Q production to be stronger, but thinks an equity raise is likely before trading recommences. The analyst is forecasting a $150m raise at a 20% discount to the last closing price.
Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target cut to $1.30 from $2.00.
Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.155
If BGL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.56, suggesting upside of 36.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.7, implying annual growth of -27.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4. |
Forecast for FY26:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.2, implying annual growth of 202.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.30
Citi rates BOE as Buy (1) -
Citi has maintained a Buy rating on Boss Energy, expecting uranium prices to rise as contracting activity picks up.
Once geopolitical and tariff concerns abate, the broker expects contracting activity to pick up again, which is expected to underwrite higher U308 prices.
The analyst does not envisage the 10% US tariff on Australia will impact the Honeymoon project and expects it will most likely fall under exemption 6, "energy and other certain minerals that are not available to the United States".
Citi raises earnings (EBITDA) estimates for Boss by 8% in FY25 and 7% in FY26 due to lower AUD versus USD assumptions.
Between Boss Energy and Paladin Energy ((PDN)), the broker prefers the former on better operational performance.
Buy retained and $3.30 target price retained.
Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.30 Difference: $1
If BOE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.86, suggesting upside of 82.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.2, implying annual growth of -72.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 65.9. |
Forecast for FY26:
Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 20.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.0, implying annual growth of 743.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CGF CHALLENGER LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $5.54
Citi rates CGF as Buy (1) -
Citi explains TAL Dai-Ichi's conditional acquisition for JPY80bn of the 15.9% stake, or 104.1m shares, in Challenger owned by MS&D supports the broker's view the stock has looked "inexpensive" for a while.
The price of the transaction is set at $8.81, which is almost 60% above Friday's closing price and a 20% premium to Citi's valuation of $7.45.
It is also above the price received by Apollo for its sale of a 10.2% stake at $6.51. The analyst stresses this should offer support for Challenger shares.
Target price $6.70 with Buy rating retained.
Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $5.54 Difference: $1.16
If CGF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.95, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 28.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.5, implying annual growth of 218.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8. |
Forecast for FY26:
Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 30.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.8, implying annual growth of 5.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.00
Citi rates CSC as Buy (1) -
Ahead of Capstone Copper's 1H25 result, Citi has updated estimates to factor in its latest metals forecasts and US$600m senior notes issue.
The broker forecasts 54.5kt production at a cost of US$2.49/lb, noting 1Q was guided to be the weakest on shutdown and power outage in Chile.
The analyst expects the company to reiterate guidance but has opened a 90-day downside watch on the stock, given its high leverage to copper prices.
Buy retained. Target cut to $11.80 from $12.80.
Target price is $11.80 Current Price is $7.00 Difference: $4.8
If CSC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.80, suggesting upside of 85.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 58.3. |
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of 38.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.1. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FBU FLETCHER BUILDING LIMITED
Building Products & Services
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Overnight Price: $2.91
UBS rates FBU as Neutral (3) -
UBS maintains a Neutral rating on Fletcher Building, highlighting a slower-than-anticipated recovery in residential and non-residential volumes, and revises down EBIT forecasts by -11% for FY26 and -14% for FY27.
The broker sees limited near-term upside, noting that consensus earnings expectations appear overly optimistic given flat housing prices, rising development costs, and delays in major infrastructure projects.
The broker does point to potential long-term upside if new CEO Andrew Reding successfully implements strategic initiatives reminiscent of Fletcher's early-2000s turnaround.
Reflecting lower forecasts, the price target has been slightly lowered to NZ$3.40 from NZ$3.45. EPS and dividend forecasts have been reduced, with dividend resumption pushed out to FY28.
Current Price is $2.91. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $3.04, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
UBS forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.48 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4. |
Forecast for FY26:
UBS forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.12 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.1, implying annual growth of 33.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $9.56
Shaw and Partners rates GTK as Buy (1) -
Gentrack Group is Shaw and Partners' top pick. Following -16% fall in share price since the FY24 results in November, the broker is keen to remind the company had reiterated confidence in achieving medium-term revenue growth of over 15%.
The broker forecasts 9% revenue growth in 1H25, rising to 14% in the 2H, and 18% annual recurring revenue growth in FY25.
Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at $11.80.
Target price is $11.80 Current Price is $9.56 Difference: $2.24
If GTK meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.93, suggesting upside of 41.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY25:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.66 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 54.5. |
Forecast for FY26:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 26.67 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.9, implying annual growth of 54.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.3. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
IMR IMRICOR MEDICAL SYSTEMS INC
Medical Equipment & Devices
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Overnight Price: $1.30
Morgans rates IMR as Speculative Buy (1) -
Imricor Medical Systems has strengthened its balance sheet with a $70m capital raising, positioning the company to deliver several value-adding catalysts, according to Morgans, which could significantly re-rate the share price.
These catalysts include the company's first ventricular tachycardia (VT) procedure, further sales in Europe and the Middle East, and anticipated FDA approval for atrial flutter in the second half of 2025, explains the broker.
The analysts note the new capital will fund expanded marketing, new clinical trials, and the US commercial rollout.
Morgans raises its target price to $2.28 from $2.18 on improved longterm growth assumptions and retains a Speculative Buy rating.
Target price is $2.28 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $0.98
If IMR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 75% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY25:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.21 cents. |
Forecast for FY26:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.46 cents. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
JHX JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC
Building Products & Services
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Overnight Price: $34.84
Citi rates JHX as Neutral (3) -
Citi notes investors are focused on the price, accretion and balance sheet risk of James Hardie Industries' proposed acquisition of Azek.
The broker reiterated Neutral rating while waiting for more information to form a better view.
Target $56.
Target price is $56.00 Current Price is $34.84 Difference: $21.16
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $53.60, suggesting upside of 55.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 227.22 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 268.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Forecast for FY26:
Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 245.63 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 293.8, implying annual growth of 9.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $22.85
Citi rates LOV as Sell (5) -
Citi's analysis of Lovisa Holdings' store data conducted in collaboration with its Innovation Lab showed no early evidence of an acceleration in store rollouts.
The broker's analysis suggests 1.5 net new stores were added per week in 3Q, down from 1.65 in 1H. At this pace, an acceleration to 2.8 per week would be required to meet the FY25 forecast of 1000 stores.
The analysts are surprised no new stores opened in the US in February and March, and unless it picks up pace, questions will be asked about the longer-term growth strategy in that region.
Sell. Target unchanged at $25.86.
Target price is $25.86 Current Price is $22.85 Difference: $3.01
If LOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.25, suggesting upside of 45.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 87.10 cents and EPS of 82.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.0, implying annual growth of 10.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.1. |
Forecast for FY26:
Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 104.00 cents and EPS of 122.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 105.6, implying annual growth of 27.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 90.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates MYS as Buy (1) -
Ord Minnett envisages synergy benefits from the Auswide merger for Mystate over the next two to three years.
Management sees synergy savings of $20m–$25m to be achieved by the end of FY27, post the merger on February 18.
The broker lowers EPS forecasts by -10% to -15% for FY25 to FY27 due to timing adjustments on the merger synergies and lower growth assumptions due to a more moderate recovery in net interest margins.
The Buy rating is retained. The target price is lowered to $4.53 from $4.74.
Target price is $4.53 Current Price is $3.73 Difference: $0.8
If MYS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 24.50 cents and EPS of 33.50 cents. |
Forecast for FY26:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 28.50 cents and EPS of 38.90 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.57
Citi rates PDN as Buy (1) -
Citi has maintained a Buy rating on Paladin Energy despite the recent sell-off, expecting uranium prices to rise as contracting activity picks up.
Once geopolitical and tariff concerns abate, the broker expects contracting activity to pick up again, which is expected to underwrite higher U308 prices.
The analyst does not envisage the 21% US tariff on Namibia will impact the Langer Heinrich mine and expects it will most likely fall under exemption 6, "energy and other certain minerals that are not available to the United States".
Citi lowers the FY25 EPS estimate for Paladin on the back of the flooding and is now forecasting a loss of -3c per share, due to a reduced production assumption, down -18%, and higher production costs.
Between Boss Energy ((BOE)) and Paladin, the broker prefers the former on better operational performance.
Buy retained. Target cut to $10.20 from $11.00.
Target price is $10.20 Current Price is $4.57 Difference: $5.63
If PDN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 123% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.78, suggesting upside of 137.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -7.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY26:
Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 26.24 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $19.15
Ord Minnett rates SUN as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett lowers EPS forecasts for Suncorp Group by -4.7% and -0.2% for FY25/FY26.
The Accumulate rating and $21 target price are retained.
Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $19.15 Difference: $1.85
If SUN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $20.91, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY25:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 117.3, implying annual growth of 5.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 95.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5. |
Forecast for FY26:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 117.8, implying annual growth of 0.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 85.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.58
Macquarie rates VEA as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
Macquarie downgrades both Ampol ((ALD)) and Viva Energy to Neutral from Outperform due to lower assumed refining margins.
The analyst explains higher than expected US tariffs will result in a weaker outlook for oil demand with a flow-on impact on refining margins.
The broker lowers EPS estimates for Viva by -28% and -12% for FY25/FY26 on forecast refining margins of US$8.42/US$10.00 per bbl, respectively, with a slower On The Run (OTR) store rollout across the Express network.
Target price falls -39% to $1.70.
Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.58 Difference: $0.12
If VEA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.82, suggesting upside of 95.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 2.70 cents and EPS of 8.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7. |
Forecast for FY26:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 9.60 cents and EPS of 22.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.1, implying annual growth of 87.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
| ALD | Ampol | $21.03 | Macquarie | 23.70 | 28.00 | -15.36% |
| AOV | Amotiv | $6.85 | Citi | 12.35 | 14.13 | -12.60% |
| Macquarie | 10.90 | 12.94 | -15.77% | |||
| Morgans | 10.75 | 12.95 | -16.99% | |||
| ASX | ASX | $63.47 | Macquarie | 65.00 | 66.50 | -2.26% |
| UBS | 62.50 | 66.00 | -5.30% | |||
| BGL | Bellevue Gold | $1.15 | Bell Potter | 1.30 | 2.00 | -35.00% |
| CSC | Capstone Copper | $6.36 | Citi | 11.80 | 12.80 | -7.81% |
| IMR | Imricor Medical Systems | $1.16 | Morgans | 2.28 | 2.18 | 4.59% |
| MYS | Mystate | $3.54 | Ord Minnett | 4.53 | 4.74 | -4.43% |
| PDN | Paladin Energy | $4.11 | Citi | 10.20 | 11.00 | -7.27% |
| VEA | Viva Energy | $1.44 | Macquarie | 1.70 | 2.80 | -39.29% |
Summaries
| ALD | Ampol | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $22.58 |
| AOV | Amotiv | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $7.32 |
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $7.32 | ||
| Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $7.32 | ||
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $7.32 | ||
| ARB | ARB Corp | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $28.49 |
| ASK | Abacus Storage King | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $1.16 |
| ASX | ASX | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $63.18 |
| Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $63.18 | ||
| BGL | Bellevue Gold | Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Bell Potter | Overnight Price $1.15 |
| BOE | Boss Energy | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $2.30 |
| CGF | Challenger | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $5.54 |
| CSC | Capstone Copper | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $7.00 |
| FBU | Fletcher Building | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $2.91 |
| GTK | Gentrack Group | Buy - Shaw and Partners | Overnight Price $9.56 |
| IMR | Imricor Medical Systems | Speculative Buy - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.30 |
| JHX | James Hardie Industries | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $34.84 |
| LOV | Lovisa Holdings | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $22.85 |
| MYS | Mystate | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.73 |
| PDN | Paladin Energy | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $4.57 |
| SUN | Suncorp Group | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $19.15 |
| VEA | Viva Energy | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.58 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 12 |
| 2. Accumulate | 1 |
| 3. Hold | 7 |
| 5. Sell | 2 |
Monday 07 April 2025
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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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