Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates 29M as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

29Metals reported 3Q2024 results which showed robust zinc production, gold was in line, and annualised year-to-date copper production is above guidance but meeting Morgan Stanley's expectations.

With gearing on the balance sheet rising to 54% in 2025 from 37% in 2024, the analyst envisages risks rising as the company is forecast to generate negative cash flow in 2025.

Target price 45c.The stock is downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight with the stock trading around the target price  Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.015
If 29M meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.53, suggesting upside of 19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates A2M as Buy (1) -

Given both a 3Q update from competitor Danone claiming increased market share and supply disruption at Synlait Milk ((SM1)), Citi believes it is possible a2 Milk Co is losing market share.

More positively for a2 Milk Co, the broker highlights management at Danone is seeing early signs of growth recovery in the IMF market in the company's China, North Asia, and Oceania segments.

Buy rated with a $7.04 target.

Target price is $7.04 Current Price is $5.81 Difference: $1.23
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.28, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ADH as Add (1) -

Following a "positive" trading update by Adairs for the first 16 weeks of FY25, Morgans marginally raises its FY25 and FY26 revenue forecasts and increases its gross margin assumptions by 40 bps to 60.7%.

The broker highlights a stronger-than-expected start to FY25 for the Adairs brand. 

Overall, the analysts expect a continuation of positive sales momentum while maintaining gross margins, and ongoing cost
optimisation with the new distribution centre and Warehouse Management System (WMS) in place.

The broker's target rises to $2.75 from $2.20 partly assisted by a new valuation methodology. Add.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.59 Difference: $0.16
If ADH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.21, suggesting downside of -16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ANZ as Hold (3) -

In the lead up to the bank reporting season, Morgans makes minor changes to its earnings forecasts for the big four banks.

For ANZ Bank's FY24 result on November 8, the broker forecasts a flat final dividend of 83 cents and an enlargement of the
$2bn buyback.

Morgans' target increases to $26.11 from $25.95. Hold.

The broker's major bank order of preference is Westpac, ANZ, National Australia Bank and CommBank. Outside of this, Judo Capital's outstanding growth potential is also noted.

Target price is $26.11 Current Price is $31.71 Difference: minus $5.6 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.44, suggesting downside of -13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AZY as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners observes the updated scoping study from Antipa Minerals' 100% owned Minyari Dome gold project.

The update is based on the increased mineral resource which validates Minyari as a "standalone" project the broker highlights, with the 35km proximity to Telfer's 22mt processing facility viable from an economic standpoint. This negates capex of around $216m for a 3mt p.a. mill.

Rio Tinto ((RIO)) recently agreed to buy Antipa Minerals' 32% stake in Citadel for $17m. The analyst notes the company post transaction will have $23m cash on hand.

There are no changes to the broker's earnings forecasts. Buy, High Risk rating and 4c target price unchanged.

Target price is $0.04 Current Price is $0.03 Difference: $0.008
If AZY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BAP as Neutral (3) -

A combination of peer trading updates and Bapcor's own AGM last week reinforces Citi's view around challenging industry conditions, particularly in retail.

That said, the broker highlights Bapcor is a good business (particularly trade), with scale and growth optionality, and the analysts see turnaround potential. Evidence of such may become clearer in the 2H once the -$20-30m cost-out program takes effect.

Target $5.17. Neutral.

Target price is $5.17 Current Price is $4.80 Difference: $0.37
If BAP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.24, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BIO as Buy (1) -

Biome Australia keeps notching up records, Bell Potter observes, with 1Q25 cash receipts at around $3.89m and sales circa $4.25m, both new highs.

Sales growth advanced 68% year-on-year because of same-stores pharmacy sales. FY25 total sales are tracking to around $17m annualising the quarter, compared to the broker's estimate of around $18.9m. A guidance update is possible on Nov 19 at the AGM.

A one-off circa $1.5m staff bonuses underpinned the first negative operating cash flow quarter in the last four quarters.

There are no changes to the analyst's forecasts. Unchanged Buy rating and 85c target.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.72 Difference: $0.135
If BIO meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BRE as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett highlights Brazilian Rare Earths has reported the discovery of two new rare earth targets near its Monte Alto project.

As per the broker's comments, the new xenotime mineralisation style could enhance project economics, with initial intersections showing high-grade rare earth oxides (TREO) of 8-14%.

Auger drilling also identified further monazite-sand occurrences. The broker has maintained its Speculative Buy rating with a price target of $7.00. No material changes were made to financial forecasts.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $2.43 Difference: $4.57
If BRE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 188% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BRG as Neutral (3) -

After reviewing Whirlpool's 3Q results showing industry weakness in the US impacting on the company's Global Small Domestic Apliances segment, Citi's thoughts turned to peer Breville Group.

The broker is now more cautious around Breville's sales growth outlook in the Americas, yet when reviewing the performance of both competitors over FY23 the analysts conclude execution on the whole has been better at Breville Group.

In a negative for Breville from a competition standpoint, observes Citi, Whirlpool management noted its new semi and fully-auto espresso machines (launched in April) are gaining good traction with customers.

The $36.51 target and Neutral rating are maintained.

Target price is $36.51 Current Price is $32.00 Difference: $4.51
If BRG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.73, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BXB as Neutral (3) -

The analyst at Citi sees evidence within Brambles' 1Q results that volume is on track, but US pricing will need to maintain current strength through H2 for management to hit FY25 target given flat European pricing.

An around -400bps sequential slowdown (1Q25 vs 4Q24) in group constant currency sales growth implies to the broker some pull forward/timing benefit may have assisted management in FY24.

Sales growth for Q1 of 3% is slower than re-affirmed FY25 guidance for 4-6% growth. Neutral. Target $18.50.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $18.29 Difference: $0.21
If BXB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.01, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BXB as Overweight (1) -

Although Brambles reported 1Q25 trading update which broadly met management's expectations, Morgan Stanley highlights the update is tracking below FY25 guidance.

Weaker volumes are being offset from higher prices which are boosting the top line. The broker points to macro-economic headwinds pushing manufacturing and retail inventory levels down, including reduced US produce volumes and a return to Australian seasonal patterns.

Morgan Stanley states net new business volumes will increase in 2H25.

The Overweight rating and $20 target are maintained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $18.29 Difference: $1.71
If BXB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.01, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BXB as Hold (3) -

The 1Q trading update by Brambles was marginally softer-than-expected by Morgans with sales growth (constant FX) of 3% missing the broker's 4% forecast.

For CHEP Americas, sales increased by 5% (broker's forecast 4%) driven mainly by 4% price growth. CHEP EMEA sales rose by 1% and CHEP Asia-Pacific sales were flat.

Group volumes were flat as net new business growth of 1% was offset by a -1% decline in like-for-like volumes, explains the analyst.

Management is staying with FY25 guidance for constant currency revenue growth of between 4-6% and underlying EBIT growth of 8-11%.

Target rises to $18.00 from $17.95. Hold retained.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $18.29 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If BXB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.01, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BXB as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett highlights Brambles reported 1Q25 sales growth of 3%, driven by price increases, while volumes were flat.

The Americas region led with 5% growth, while EMEA saw 1% growth, and APAC was flat.

The broker notes management reiterated FY25 guidance for 4-6% sales growth and 8-11% EBIT growth. Price target of $20.60. Buy rating maintained. No changes were made to financial forecasts.

Target price is $20.60 Current Price is $18.29 Difference: $2.31
If BXB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.01, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BXB as Buy (1) -

UBS notes Brambles reported 1Q25 sales growth of 3%, with price increases of 3% and flat volumes. The broker highlights the Americas region led the performance with 5% growth, while EMEA saw a 1% increase, and APAC remained flat.

The broker notes the slower start to FY25 is in line with earlier guidance, expecting a back-end-weighted improvement in volumes.

Brambles reiterated FY25 guidance for 4-6% sales growth and 8-11% EBIT growth and UBS has maintained its Buy rating and kept its price target unchanged at $19.10. No material changes were made to financial forecasts.

Target price is $19.10 Current Price is $18.29 Difference: $0.81
If BXB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.01, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates C79 as Hold (3) -

Chrysos reported 1Q25 revenue of $13.7m which came in below Bell Potter's forecast of $14.7m but reflected a rise of 2% on the previous quarter and up 54% year-on-year.

The analyst attributes later adoption in the quarter to a soft exploration market and lower contributions to minimum monthly assay payments.

Management retained FY25 guidance with Bell Potter forecasts broadly in the mid-point for both revenue and EBITDA.

The broker lowers EPS forecasts for FY25 and FY26 by -10% and -12%, respectively because of higher capex assumptions, increased debt draw down with a decline of -20% and -22% in annual assay capacity for FY25/FY26, respectively.

Hold rating retained. Target price falls to $5.50 from $5.70.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $5.37 Difference: $0.13
If C79 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.26, suggesting upside of 18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates C79 as Accumulate (2) -

Chrysos reported 1Q25 revenue of $13.7m, slightly below expectations, comments Ord Minnett.

The broker does note the company has reiterated its FY25 guidance, plus the shares had sold off pre-release already.

Accumulate rating maintained with a price target of $6.09. No material changes were made to financial forecasts. FY25 is expected to generate a loss.

Target price is $6.09 Current Price is $5.37 Difference: $0.72
If C79 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.26, suggesting upside of 18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CAR as Buy (1) -

For CAR Group's Trader Interactive business, Citi sees potential downside to its own forecast for a pick-up in dealer yield growth in H2 as price increases may be tough to implement.

The broker forms this view on pricing after a review of results from RV manufacturer Winnebago and powersports manufacturer
Polaris this week showing ongoing challenging retail conditions.

In a positive for take up of depth products as well as Media revenue for Trader Interactive, according to the analyst, Polaris noted a higher-than-expected promotional environment as OEMs dealt with high inventory levels.

Buy rating and $39.50 target price unchanged.

Target price is $39.50 Current Price is $36.95 Difference: $2.55
If CAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.67, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CBA as Reduce (5) -

In the lead up to the bank reporting season, Morgans makes minor changes to its earnings forecasts for the big four banks.

For CommBank's 1Q trading update on November 13, the broker expects progress toward its own forecast for a 2bps increase in net interest margin (NIM) in H1.

Morgans' target increases to $96.81 from $96.13. Reduce.

The broker's major bank order of preference is Westpac, ANZ, National Australia Bank and CommBank. Outside of this, Judo Capital's outstanding growth potential is also noted.

Target price is $96.81 Current Price is $143.43 Difference: minus $46.62 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $101.14, suggesting downside of -29.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CSL as Buy (1) -

CSL hosted an R&D event and UBS analysts report the presentations suggested no immediate major pipeline upside.

The company received a complete response letter from the FDA regarding garadacimab for hereditary angioedema prevention, which requires addressing manufacturing issues.

CSL is unsure if the resubmission will need a factory reinspection, but UBS believes this will eventually be resolved.

Minor EPS adjustments were made, with a -1% cut across FY25-27 forecasts. The price target remains unchanged at $340. UBS maintains a Buy rating, citing CSL Behring's gross margin improvement story as a key reason for ongoing optimism.

Target price is $340.00 Current Price is $293.57 Difference: $46.43
If CSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $335.13, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DXS as Neutral (3) -

Management at Dexus is yet to comment on a media report of the REIT's $3bn attempt to control North Queensland Airports Group.

If successful, Citi notes this would increase infrastructure assets under management by Dexus materially from the $11bn at June 30 this year.

The funds management business is a key area of potential growth for the entity, suggest the analysts.

Neutral retained. Target $7.30.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $7.19 Difference: $0.11
If DXS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.84, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates FMG as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

Fortescue reported a fall in 1Q25 production of -12% on the previous quarter with shipments lower than Bell Potter's expectations and costs higher than forecast.

The analyst views the result as "soft", exemplifying some of the headwinds the company will face in FY25 as cost inflation remains stubborn and production declines despite a lift from Iron Bridge.

Bell Potter lowers EPS forecasts by -19% in FY25 and -10% in FY26 due to lower prices realised and higher cost assumptions.

The stock is downgraded to Sell from Hold with a reduced target price of $17.04 from $17.58.

Target price is $17.04 Current Price is $19.13 Difference: minus $2.09 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.33, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

Citi maintains its $19.40 target for Fortescue after further reviewing yesterday's 1Q operational update.

In a reflection of the broker's Neutral rating, the analyst sees upside risk from larger-than-expected stimulus in China and potential downside from steel production cuts in China.

A summary of the analyst's initial thought's yesterday follows.

Upon first read of today's market update, Citi analysts believe Fortescue's Q1 update revealed slightly higher costs and lower-than-expected price realisations, but broadly taken, the performance seems in line.

One of the items highlighted is the Feasibility Study assessing a 1mtpa capacity green iron metal project in the Pilbara is proposed to commence in 2025.

The broker also points out management has made no changes to FY25 guidance.

Target price is $19.40 Current Price is $19.13 Difference: $0.27
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.33, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie highlights Fortescue reported 1Q25 production and shipments which met expectations, but costs came in higher than anticipated and realised prices were lower than forecasts.

Cash declined -US$1.5bn over the quarter which is attributed to a debt drawdown of US$1bn and a dividend payment of US$1.9bn, resulting in "implied" cash flow of US$1.1bn, the broker notes.

Macquarie lowers FY25 EPS estimates by -7% and less than -1% for FY26. Target price lifts to $14.50. Underperform rating maintained.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $19.13 Difference: minus $4.63 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.33, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley observes production for 1Q25 from Fortescue was slightly below forecasts and costs higher than anticipated.

The broker notes Iron Bridge pricing came in below the 65% index by -2%.

No change to Equal-weight rating and $17.55 target price. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $17.55 Current Price is $19.13 Difference: minus $1.58 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.33, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FMG as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett observes Fortescue reported record shipments of 47.7Mt for the September quarter, despite lower price realisations and higher-than-expected C1 costs.

Hematite ore mined fell by -8% quarter-on-quarter, but shipments aligned with expectations, the broker suggests.

The company maintained its FY25 guidance, and Iron Bridge continues to ramp up, targeting 5-9Mt for FY25.

Price target $20.50, with minor adjustments to FY25 earnings due to lower realisations and higher costs. The Accumulate rating remains unchanged.

Target price is $20.50 Current Price is $19.13 Difference: $1.37
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.33, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HMC as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley highlights HMC Capital is buying Global Switch for $1.9bn with the aim of using it to seed listed and unlisted data centre vehicles.

The group also announced a $300m equity raising with debt of $535m, providing $1,9bn in liquidity to establish the DigiCo REIT and an unlisted infrastructure fund.

DigiCo is expected to be IPO'ed in December. The analyst states if HMC Capital can launch the funds, the transaction will be positive "ultimately".

The broker lifts EPS slightly for the updated guidance from management. Equal Weight rating. Target price lifts to $9.10 from $8.80. Industry View: In-Line. 

Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $9.21 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If HMC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.15, suggesting downside of -21.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IFL as Neutral (3) -

Following yesterday's quarterly business update by Insignia Financial, Citi ponders whether the worst may be behind the company.

Suspending the dividend makes the balance sheet more resilient, in the broker's view, and additional cost savings will likely be targeted at the November 13 investor day.

The analyst infers from management commentary flows into the company's Expand wrap platform remain relatively stable despite being explicitly targeted by some other players.

With markets advancing well in Q1, the broker's mark-to-market exercise raises EPS forecasts for Insignia Financial. The target is increased to $3.15 from $2.70. Neutral.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $3.02 Difference: $0.13
If IFL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.75, suggesting downside of -15.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IFL as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley observes Insignia Financial reported outflows of -$2bn in 1Q25 with funds under management lagging behind peers.

The analyst believes the company has more work to do to stabilise flows. Wealth experienced slightly better than forecast outflows the analyst notes but worse than the June quarter.

Management flagged -$14bn in one-off Wealth outflows for the balance for FY25 because of "client transitions". This compares to outflows of $128m in this quarter.

No change to Underweight rating and $2.21 target price. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $2.21 Current Price is $3.02 Difference: minus $0.81 (current price is over target).
If IFL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.75, suggesting downside of -15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IFL as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Following Insignia Financial's release of 1Q25 update, UBS highlights the update is showing stabilised Wrap flows following the MLC Expand migration, with a net gain of $522m.

However, the broker highlights a headwind from flagged client transitions, with an expected further -$1.4bn in outflows for FY25.

Despite these challenges, the broker sees upside potential from cost-cutting initiatives, as well as easing concerns around gearing.

UBS has upgraded its rating to Neutral from Sell and raised its price target to $3.10 from $2.30. Financial forecasts for FY25-27 have been increased by 7.5%-26%.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $3.02 Difference: $0.08
If IFL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.75, suggesting downside of -15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates KAR as Buy (1) -

Citi updates forecasts following Karoon Energy's 3Q results. The broker's positive short term trading view on Karoon Energy stock expires on November 24. Target is reduced to $2.10 from $2.20. Buy.

A summary of the analysts' initial thoughts in yesterday's research follows.

In an initial view, Citi believes Karoon Energy's Q3 update is a net positive with an additional US$25m in buying back the company's own shares taking advantage of the low share price.

Also, management has narrowed down 2025 guidance to 10.5-10.8mmboe from 10.5-12.5mmboe.

3Q24 was softer on timing of cargoes but otherwise largely in line and the broker believes the positives mentioned will prove more important.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.39 Difference: $0.81
If KAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.25, suggesting upside of 62.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KAR as Outperform (1) -

Karoon Energy reported 3Q2024 production which was weaker than Macquarie's forecasts. Sales declined -26% due to timing on Bauna liftings.

Even accounting for the tough hurricane season Who Dat oil production was weaker than forecast despite improved gas production.

Management announced another US$25m buyback. The broker views this as positive.

Adjusting for lower oil prices, higher production costs as well as increased depreciation/amortisation charges and interest which meets guidance, Macquarie lowers EPS forecast by -14% in 2024 and lifts EPS estimate by 3% in 2025.

No change to target price, $2.15. Outperform rating remains.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.39 Difference: $0.76
If KAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.25, suggesting upside of 62.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates KAR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley highlights Karoon Energy shrank 2024 production guidance range to 10.5-10.8mmboe with a further US$25m buyback announcement which the analyst views as positive.

The company increased production 25% in Sept quarter or 6% on the June quarter, while revenue advanced 32% on the quarter and up 29% on the year.

The broker retains earnings forecasts. The company is hosting an investor tour on Oct 27-30.

For Karoon Energy, the price target is $1.99, no change. Equal-weight. Sector call In-Line.

Target price is $1.99 Current Price is $1.39 Difference: $0.6
If KAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.25, suggesting upside of 62.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates KAR as Add (1) -

Third quarter production for Karoon Energy was just ahead of the consensus expectation. Morgans suggests a continuation of this type of operating performance should support improving investor confidence.

Management narrowed 2024 production guidance to 10.5-10.8mmboe from 10.5-12.5mmboe and flagged a further US$25m on-market share buyback.

The Add rating and $2.50 target are maintained.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.39 Difference: $1.11
If KAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 80% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.25, suggesting upside of 62.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LFG as Buy (1) -

Yesterday's AGM trading update by Liberty Financial was accompanied by limited management commentary, notes Citi, but was largely consistent with the broker's forecasts, particularly regarding ongoing positive volume momentum during 2024.

The loan portfolio rose by 1% compared to Q4 of FY24 led by higher margin Secured Finance and Financial Services, observe the analysts.

Management noted the net interest margin (NIM) is stabilising, with strong engagement on the funding side supporting an 'improving period' for this metric.

Buy rating. Target $4.15.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $3.43 Difference: $0.72
If LFG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LFG as Outperform (1) -

Liberty Financial's trading update at its AGM revealed loan book growth of 1% on the previous quarter for 1Q25. This was below Macquarie's expectations due to increased competition in mortgages and motor finance.

The analyst observes non-bank lenders are seeking to expand commercial and non-mortgage lending including vehicle financing.

Margins remained stable with expectations of better funding costs offset by loan competition.

Macquarie lowers EPS estimates by -9% in FY25 and -5% in FY26 because of lower volume expansion and higher impairments.

Target price declines by -2% to $4. Maintain Outperform rating. At 7x FY25 earnings forecasts, the broker sees "value" and an improvement in conditions on interest rate cuts.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.43 Difference: $0.57
If LFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LNW as Outperform (1) -

Post meetings with land-based and iGaming companies/customers in Las Vegas and tribal casinos in Oklahoma, Macquarie highlights customers remained positive on the possibility of increased floor share for Light & Wonder. There were also minimal concerns over litigation on Dragon Train.

The broker notes Gaming Ops may "stall" in the near-term in 4Q2024 and 1Q2025 as 2200 Dragon Train machines are converted to lower fee pay products.

Macquarie estimates growth in EBITDA at a 9% compound average rate through to 2027 with improving quality of earnings as the company grows Gaming Ops and IGaming.

With high confidence in FY25 earnings guidance the analyst believes the stock has overreacted to the litigation and offers an opportunity.

Outperform rating and $169 target price.

Target price is $169.00 Current Price is $139.80 Difference: $29.2
If LNW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $169.20, suggesting upside of 17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Neutral (3) -

On the back of ASIC investigations into Mineral Resources' alleged financial dealings with overseas entities, Macquarie cuts the stock's target price by -19% to $38 due to a higher risk premium and lower ascribed multiples on service and gas divisions.

The broker also highlights what is viewed as "significant refinancing events" for FY27/FY28 as $2bn worth of bonds come up for renewal.

Neutral rating unchanged with a lower $38 target price. No change to Macquarie's earnings forecasts.

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $35.91 Difference: $2.09
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $46.86, suggesting upside of 37.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MMS as Buy (1) -

Upon initial assessment, Citi  analysts comment today's 1Q25 trading update by McMillan Shakespeare suggests the business is running slightly ahead of forecasts on novated sales growth, while impact to yields from price competition is in line.

Citi expects the company to have delivered mid-single digit new novated sales growth, which is slightly ahead of its forecasts of 3% growth YoY in 1H25 and 4% HoH (including SA Gov contract loss).

With no detail on order growth provided, the broker expects this has been aided by order bank unwind. Buy. Target $20.05.

Target price is $20.05 Current Price is $15.19 Difference: $4.86
If MMS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.17, suggesting upside of 33.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MTS as Neutral (3) -

Following an initial assessment of today's Metcash trading update and outlook, Citi highlights evident gross margin pressure. It's felt consensus will need to lower its 2H profit forecast of $154m given a weak trade market is expected to persist.

Management provided 1H profit guidance of between $132-$135m compared to forecasts by the broker and consensus for $153m and $144m, respectively. 

Target $4.00. Neutral.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.30 Difference: $0.7
If MTS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.05, suggesting upside of 26.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MVF as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes total IVF cycles rose 13.2% in Sept quarter, year-on-year, including frozen rising 15.9% and fresh cycles advancing 11.2% on Sept 2023 quarter.

Carrier screening was included in Medicare Benefits Scheme from Nov 2023 the broker highlights with an addition of around 95k tests to date. Monash IVF is anticipating incremental boosts in IVF volumes from screening.

Macquarie forecasts the company will add market share of 43bps for FY25, generated from specialist growth.

There are no changes to the analyst's earnings forecasts. Target price remains at $1.50. Outperform retained.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: $0.295
If MVF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.54, suggesting upside of 26.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NAB as Reduce (5) -

In the lead up to the bank reporting season, Morgans makes minor changes to its earnings forecasts for the big four banks.

For National Australia Bank's FY24 result on November 7, the broker forecasts a -1% decline in revenue, a 1% rise in costs, and a -3bps decline in the credit impairment expensing rate.

Morgans target falls to $31.48 from $31.61. Reduce.

The broker's major bank order of preference is Westpac, ANZ, National Australia Bank and CommBank. Outside of this, Judo Capital's outstanding growth potential is also noted.

Target price is $31.48 Current Price is $38.90 Difference: minus $7.42 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.75, suggesting downside of -15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NEM as Buy (1) -

Responding to yesterday's falling Newmont Corp share price, Citi notes the 3Q cost performance was "disappointing" and the following investor conference call with management suggested a downward reset of expectations.

Production from the Tier 1 portfolio in 2025 will be flattish, notes the broker, and underlying costs in 2025 will also be flattish, not down.

The analyst feels prior mid-term guidance of 6.7moz in 2028 is under review, given a 6.0moz mid-cycle target is deemed good by management.

Buy. Target US$66. 

Target price is $95.00 Current Price is $81.87 Difference: $13.13
If NEM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NST as Buy (1) -

Citi leaves its earnings estimates largely unchanged for Northern Star Resources following yesterday's 1Q operational update. The Buy rating and $18.30 target are maintained.

A summary of the broker's initial research on the day of the results follows.

Citi's initial assessment of Northern Star Resources' September quarter update is that sales of 393.9koz are in line with consensus at the group level. 

Pogo performance has beaten the guided 1Q 50koz to sell 59koz. Production was weaker versus sales at 373.9koz with higher sales due to delays from the June quarter.

Headgrades across the group declined QoQ. AISC of $2082/oz is also in line with forecasts. Management has stuck with its prior guidance for FY25.

Target price is $18.30 Current Price is $17.41 Difference: $0.89
If NST meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.08, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NST as Outperform (1) -

Northern Star Resources presented mixed 1Q25 results. Sales met consensus but came in 2% above Macquarie's forecast. Production was lower than expected and costs slightly higher than anticipated.

Increased capex provided for a weaker cash position than the analyst forecast.

Management retained FY25 guidance for sales and all-in-sustaining costs. Improving production over FY25 is expected by the company from better grades at Kalgoorlie Consolidate gold mines, higher output at Yandal and increased throughput and grades at Pogo.

Macquarie lifts FY25 EPS by 3% with growth of EPS estimates by 9% for FY26 as Thunderbox's mill performance boosts the analyst's long-term throughput to 6.2mt per annum.

Target price is raised 5% to $20. No change to Outperform rating.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $17.41 Difference: $2.59
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.08, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NST as Underweight (5) -

Northern Star Resources reported a "slower" start to FY25 than Morgan Stanley expected with 1Q25 gold production -4.7% lower than the broker's forecast due to Kalgoorlie production Centre production down some -15% on lower grades.

All-in-sustaining costs were higher than anticipated due to lower grades. No change to the broker's earnings forecasts. 

No change to Underweight rating and $14.35 target price. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $14.35 Current Price is $17.41 Difference: minus $3.06 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.08, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NST as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett points out Northern Star's 1Q25 production missed expectations by -8%, primarily due to weaker grade and throughput at KCGM.

FY25 guidance was maintained, the broker highlights.

Ord Minnett has increased its price target to $16.50 from $16.20, also referring to a positive environment for gold generally, while maintaining a Hold rating. Financial forecasts were adjusted to reflect higher costs and lower production.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $17.41 Difference: minus $0.91 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.08, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates REH as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Macquarie views Reece's 1H25 guidance update as "disappointing", coming in at $300m-$320m, well below the broker's forecast at $338.6m.

The analyst points to the surprise decline in US dollar denominated sales of -6.5% with weaker repair & remodeling markets and softness in the smaller end of new construction builds. 

A&NZ sales were flat in 1Q25 with weaker volumes offset by M&A additions. Macquarie lowers EPS forecasts by -8% and -6% for FY25/FY26, respectively.

The stock is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform with a rise in target price to $24.10 from $22.85 due to higher valuation multiples on lower earnings forecasts. The earnings downgrade is highlighted as a "clearing event" by the broker.

Target price is $24.10 Current Price is $24.45 Difference: minus $0.35 (current price is over target).
If REH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $22.09, suggesting downside of -7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates REH as Underweight (5) -

Reece reported a soft trading updated and 1H25 guidance below expectations, Morgan Stanley notes with weakness in key housing construction as well as repair & remodeling markets.

Sales in A&NZ were flat and supported by recent M&A activity. US sales revenue declined -6.5% due to lower volumes and deflation continuing in certain areas.

Morgan Stanley sees a "bearish" outlook for the company particularly in A&NZ. The downgrade in management's 1H25 guidance results in a fall in the analyst's EPS estimates by -7% for FY25/FY26.

Underweight rating reiterated. Target price $18. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $24.45 Difference: minus $6.45 (current price is over target).
If REH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $22.09, suggesting downside of -7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates REH as Reduce (5) -

Morgans highlights a "weak" 1Q trading update by Reece, while management's 1H underlying EBIT guidance of between $300-320m missed market expectations for $337m.

The company noted ongoing softness in housing activity in both the A&NZ region (broadly flat 1Q revenue) and in the USA where revenue fell by -6.5% (in US dollars).

Reduce retained. The analyst's target falls to $19.95 from $21.00 as underlying earnings forecasts fall by -7% across FY25-27.

Target price is $19.95 Current Price is $24.45 Difference: minus $4.5 (current price is over target).
If REH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $22.09, suggesting downside of -7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates REH as Lighten (4) -

Reece provided a weaker-than-expected trading update at its AGM, Ord Minnett points out. The company reported 1Q25 sales of $2.23bn, a decline of -5%, with a -6.5% drop in US sales and flat revenue in A&NZ.

As per the broker, Reece expects 1H25 EBIT to be in the range of $300-320m, which is -8% below consensus.

The broker has downgraded its FY25 and FY26 forecasts by -9% and -4%, respectively, due to weaker construction markets. The price target was lowered to $23.20 from $23.50.

Lighten rating remains in place.

Target price is $23.20 Current Price is $24.45 Difference: minus $1.25 (current price is over target).
If REH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $22.09, suggesting downside of -7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RHC as Hold (3) -

Ramsay Health Care hosted investor site tours at its Joondalup and Hollywood hospitals in Perth and Ord Minnett analysts report both facilities are showing strong growth.

The broker noted the company's focus on digital and data initiatives could generate -$47m in annual savings by FY25, though margin pressures from labour costs and adverse case mix remain challenges.

The broker retains its Hold rating, with the price target unchanged at $42.40. No material changes were made to financial forecasts.

Target price is $42.40 Current Price is $41.77 Difference: $0.63
If RHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.40, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RHC as Neutral (3) -

UBS analysts had joined in on Ramsay Health Care's investor tours in Perth, showcasing Joondalup Health Campus and Hollywood Private Hospital.

As per the broker's report, the private hospitals operator signed a long-term public sector partnership for Joondalup, extending through 2048.

UBS noted a renewed focus on Emergency Departments as a key part of Ramsay's strategy to recover margins in its Australian operations, with increased patient acuity observed.

The broker highlighted ongoing negotiations with payors over reimbursement. Neutral rating retained with a price target of $45.10. No material updates were made to financial forecasts.

Target price is $45.10 Current Price is $41.77 Difference: $3.33
If RHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.40, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RRL as Neutral (3) -

Management at Regis Resources will update the market on its capital management strategy in the 1H, with Citi favouring debt repayments given the current cost to service debt of around -$20m per year.

The broker was commenting after noting meaningful cash build in Q1. Post the hedge-book close, cash rose by $85m quarter-on-quarter, resulting in $380m of cash and bullion at quarter's end.

Management had pre-released production numbers ahead of the September result, notes Citi.

The target for Regis Resources rises to $2.90 from $2.20 largely due to a roll-forward of the broker's valuation model.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.81 Difference: $0.09
If RRL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.45, suggesting downside of -12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RRL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes Regis Resources pre-reported 1Q25 production which was slightly better than expected with higher production from Tropicana. All-in-sustaining costs met expectations.

Management indicated cash and bullion came in at $380m at quarter end, rising $85m on the previous quarter.

The broker notes FY25 guidance is on track resulting in a lift to EBITDA estimates of 4% in FY26 from higher Duketon production assumptions. Increased depreciation/amortisation charges lower FY25 EPS forecast by -37% and lift FY26 estimate by 2%.

Target price rises 3% to $3 with an unchanged Outperform rating.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.81 Difference: $0.19
If RRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.45, suggesting downside of -12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RRL as Equal-weight (3) -

Regis Resources announced 1Q25 production which was pre- released and came in line with Morgan Stanley's and consensus expectations.

The broker assesses a slight build in inventory with lower sales and cash costs came in higher by 14% compared to forecasts due to increased costs at Duketon and Tropicana for 1Q25 update.

Management retained FY25 guidance. Morgan Stanley lowers FY25 EPS estimate by -17.2% and lifts FY26 EPS estimate by 7.3%.

The target for Regis Resources rises to $2.45 from $2.05, and the rating is retained at  Equal-weight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.81 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.45, suggesting downside of -12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RWC as Buy (1) -

Citi keeps its $5.85 target and Buy rating for Reliance Worldwide following yesterday's summary (see below) of the company's investor day. Based on management's presentations, its felt a US commercial acquisition is getting close.

From yesterday: Cit's initial conclusion from today's market update by Reliance Worldwide is that the operational turnaround for the EMEA region is happening, but at a slower pace.

For management to maintain guidance the broker suggests there could be an argument that US/APAC may be tracking modestly above expectations.

Target price is $5.85 Current Price is $5.58 Difference: $0.27
If RWC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.75, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RWC as Outperform (1) -

Reliance Worldwide produced a trading update at its AGM and investor briefing which was broadly in line with Macquarie's expectations. excluding ongoing weakness, the broker highlights, in EMEA.

Management confirmed 1H25 revenue to come in flat or up/down by single digits excluding Holman and Supply Smart with better EBITDA margins on the previous corresponding period.

Macquarie notes guidance meets expectations. The analyst tweaks EPS forecasts lower by -2% in FY25 and FY26 because of weaker UK trading and lower Holman estimates in APAC.

Outperform rating unchanged. Target price rises 2% to $6.50.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.58 Difference: $0.92
If RWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.75, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RWC as Accumulate (2) -

Reliance Worldwide expects flat sales for 1H25, Ord Minnett notes, adding management anticipates improvement in EBITDA margins due to cost management initiatives.

The broker maintains its Accumulate rating and increased the price target to $5.80 from $5.70. Financial forecasts were largely unchanged.

While volumes in end-markets remain subdued, the analyst expects cost savings initiatives and the recent acquisition of Holman Industries to ensure a "resilient" FY25 result.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.58 Difference: $0.22
If RWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.75, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STX as Neutral (3) -

Strike Energy reported 1Q25 production which met Macquarie's forecasts. Pricing came in below estimates by -10% due to forex impacts, the company asserts, as the Santos ((STO)) contract is in US dollars.

Management reconfirmed the release of final investment decision for South Erregulla peaking plant in the current quarter with Macquarie viewing the joint venture project for West Erregulla as an overhang for the stock.

Macquarie lowers EPS forecasts by -9% in FY25 and -4% in FY26 because of lower realised gas prices and higher finance costs.

Target price slips -4% to 22c on forecast lower revenue. Neutral rating unchanged.

Target price is $0.22 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.01
If STX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.29, suggesting upside of 43.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUL as Buy (1) -

The analysts at Citi are not rattled by the slower sales growth revealed via Super Retail's AGM trading update. Supercheap Auto and Macpac momentum slowed with respective 2% and 4% like-for-like sales growth over the first 16 weeks of H1.

The analysts believe margin pressure will be largely limited to this period and see potential for Black Friday trading (November 29) to make up for the poor start to FY25. It's also thought the consumer environment is on the improve.

Buy rating. Target falls to $19 from $20. 

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $15.87 Difference: $3.13
If SUL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.59, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SUL as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes group sales for Super Retail rose 4% in the first 16 weeks of 1H25 which is a slowdown from the first seven weeks of trading at sales growth of 5%, year-on-year.

Sales from MacPac and SCA have slowed with BCF and Rebel advancing.

Management continues to expect 25 new stores in FY25.

Macquarie lowers EPS estimates by -3.7% in FY25 and -0.5% in FY26. Target price slips by -5% to $16.50. No change to Neutral rating.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $15.87 Difference: $0.63
If SUL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.59, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUL as Underweight (5) -

Super Retail offered a trading update for the first 16 weeks of FY25. Morgan Stanley highlights commentary "the outlook for the consumer remains uncertain" which is in line with previous statements.

Management retained FY25 guidance including 25 new store openings with 9 new ones already in place.

Supercheap auto saw slowing same store sales from the first seven weeks, Rebel was in line with previous seven week updated as was BCF and Macpac experienced slowing sales.

The analyst noted NZ conditions remain challenging.

Underweight. Target price unchanged at $15.75. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $15.75 Current Price is $15.87 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If SUL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.59, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SUL as Hold (3) -

Now that Ord Minnett is whitelabeling wholesale Barrenjoey research, Super Retail has returned as a covered company.

As per the broker's latest commentary, Super Retail's AGM trading update showed a slowdown in sales growth and increased margin pressure.

The broker reduced EPS forecasts for FY25-27 by -4%-3% and lowered the price target to $16.50 from $17, while maintaining a Hold rating.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $15.87 Difference: $0.63
If SUL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.59, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates VSL as Hold (3) -

Management at Vulcan Steel expects the steel market will remain soft through 2024 but is optimistic on 2025 given the decline in New Zealand interest rates has resulted in notable lift in business confidence.

An update on Q1 trading conditions revealed a -13% year-on-year fall in revenue and earnings (EBITDA) also declined by -30%.

Hold. The target rises to $6.85 from $6.70. The analyst notes trading conditions are expected to improve in Australia alongside a lift in business confidence, subject to present industry disruptions abating.

Target price is $6.85 Current Price is $7.44 Difference: minus $0.59 (current price is over target).
If VSL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WBC as Hold (3) -

In the lead up to the bank reporting season, Morgans makes minor changes to its earnings forecasts for the big four banks.

For Westpac's FY24 result on November 4, the broker forecasts a flat cash EPS in H2 driven by relatively flat revenue and a -2% deterioration in costs.

The analyst assumes a flat final dividend of 75 cents and, given the bank's significant excess franking balance, a 10 cent special dividend.

Morgans' target eases down to $27.04 from $27.05. Hold.

The broker's major bank order of preference is Westpac, ANZ, National Australia Bank and CommBank. Outside of this, Judo Capital's outstanding growth potential is also noted.

Target price is $27.04 Current Price is $32.11 Difference: minus $5.07 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.92, suggesting downside of -13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates WTC as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Bell Potter comments both Richard White and the WiseTech Global board have made "the right move" in the now former CEO and director stepping down from both roles and becoming a consultant to the company.

It’s not a perfect solution but it’s the best of a bad situation, the broker exclaims.

Price target is lowered by -7% to $123.75 to account for any negative impacts from the saga, potentially. Upgrade to Buy from Hold. No changes made to forecasts.

Bell Potter: "[...] given the nature of enterprise software and the difficulty in shifting to a different solution we regard the prospect of any negative impact on the business as minimal".

Target price is $123.75 Current Price is $99.37 Difference: $24.38
If WTC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $118.78, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WTC as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

While acknowledging governance issues create uncertainty as well as the leadership transition at WiseTech Global, Citi believes the board and Richard White have reached a  solution whereby strategy and governance have been divided.

Some near-term negative share price reaction might occur on uncertainty on the transition but the analyst does not see any risk to earnings and the outlook for the company. Industry freight volumes remain a tailwind also for growth in FY25.

Citi upgrades the stock to Buy from Neutral. Target price is lowered -10% because of reduced longer-term earnings growth forecasts to $124.50.

Target price is $124.50 Current Price is $99.37 Difference: $25.13
If WTC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $118.78, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources