Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates AIA as Outperform (1) -

Due to prompting for Air New Zealand ((AIZ)) in late July over issues around information disclosure regulatory regime and pushing for a Section 56G into economic regulation of specific airport services, ComCom conducted a short review on regulatory settings.

Macquarie highlights the request and study were unknown to Auckland International Airport, but ComCom found no reasonable grounds to start a Section 56G inquiry.

The analyst believes after a long period of regulatory uncertainty, investors can be confident around the regulatory framework for PSE5 (five-year pricing).

Outperform and target at NZ$8.75 are unchanged. No change to the analyst's earnings estimates.

Current Price is $6.95. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ASX as Neutral (3) -

ASX reported 1Q26 average trading volume growth of 18.2% against 10.4% in 1Q25, with futures volumes per day up 0.2% on the previous year, including growth across 90-day bank bills and declines in 3-year bonds.

Macquarie also points to a rise in capital markets, with IPOs of $22.3bn against $4.5bn a year ago, and secondary capital raisings around $9.9bn compared to $9.2bn in 1Q25.

The analyst tweaks EPS estimates up 0.6% for FY26 and 1.3% for FY27. The AGM is scheduled for October 23.

No change to Neutral rating. Target falls to $63 from $64.50.

Target price is $63.00 Current Price is $58.06 Difference: $4.94
If ASX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $62.72, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ASX as Accumulate (2) -

ASIC has given the go-ahead for Cboe to list IPOs on the Australian market, which is in direct competition with ASX.

This will bring the licensing for new company listings to four, Ord Minnett points out, including ASX, Cboe, the National Stock Exchange of Australia, and Sydney Stock Exchange.

IPO revenue currently represents around 1.5% of ASX group revenue. If say 20% of the company's IPO revenue moves to Cboe, the analyst estimates only an impact of -0.5% to underlying net profit.

Post the September monthly update and ASIC announcement, Ord Minnett lifts its EPS forecasts by 0.6% for FY26 and 0.7% for FY27.

Accumulate rating and $63 target retained.

Target price is $63.00 Current Price is $58.06 Difference: $4.94
If ASX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $62.72, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASX as Sell (5) -

ASX announced mixed trading activity over 1Q26, according to UBS. Average daily futures volumes rose 15.4% in September, while cash equity average daily turnover rose 16.6% on the prior year.

Higher-margin on-market turnover was lower, at growth of 14.2%. Capital raisings lifted significantly, with collateral balances up 4.1% to $12.7bn on the previous period.

UBS sees ongoing risks regarding the ASIC review, as well as the CHESS technology replacement. Additionally, the broker points to growing competition, as evidenced by ASIC giving Cboe the green light to list new companies on the market.

Sell rating and $62.15 target remain unchanged.

Target price is $62.15 Current Price is $58.06 Difference: $4.09
If ASX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $62.72, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Overweight (1) -

Greater tolerance for inflation signals the onset of an environment characterised by lower interest rates, higher inflation, and a softer US dollar, all favourable for commodities and the mining sector, highlights Morgan Stanley.

In this context, the broker reiterates its Attractive industry view, upgraded last quarter, as miners continue to trade at appealing valuations relative to industrials.

Iron ore has historically benefited from periods of US dollar weakness, observe the analysts. While new supply remains a potential headwind, it's felt consensus forecasts are reasonable.

Metallurgical and thermal coal prices remain low but stable. Both are well positioned to benefit from China’s “anti-involution” policies aimed at improving industrial efficiency, explain the analysts.

While there is scope for upside in base metals, much of it appears already priced in, according to the broker. It's noted copper is well placed to benefit from lower interest rates and a weaker US dollar, but pure-play miners trade at elevated valuations.

For BHP Group, the Overweight rating is kept. Target rises to $48.00 from $46.50. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $48.00 Current Price is $41.96 Difference: $6.04
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.15, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

UBS sees multiple factors supporting iron ore above US$100/t, including tight Chinese port stocks, resilient steel demand, and strong growth in South-East Asia and India.

India’s move to net importer status, declining iron grades, and sticky costs near -US$90-110/t through 2026–29 are also seen as underpinning prices.

The broker notes iron ore is holding near US$105/t despite China’s weak property sector and models a more constructive scenario of US$96-102/t for 2026–30 and US$90/t long term, above its US$85/t base case.

In this scenario, UBS estimates fair value for BHP Group, Rio Tinto ((RIO)), Fortescue Metals ((FMG)), and Mineral Resources ((MIN)) would rise by between 7-12%.

For BHP Group: target $43.00, Neutral rating.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $41.96 Difference: $1.04
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.15, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BOE as Underweight (5) -

Greater tolerance for inflation signals the onset of an environment characterised by lower interest rates, higher inflation, and a softer US dollar, all favourable for commodities and the mining sector, highlights Morgan Stanley.

In this context, the broker reiterates its Attractive industry view, upgraded last quarter, as miners continue to trade at appealing valuations relative to industrials.

Regarding uranium, Morgan Stanley turns more constructive. The target for Boss Energy is increased to $1.85 from $1.65 and the rating is kept at Underweight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $2.02 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If BOE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.37, suggesting upside of 18.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BOQ as Trim (4) -

Bank of Queensland’s FY25 result is due on October 15 due to its August year-end. Morgans notes headline earnings have been pre-disclosed but underlying trends will be key for the outlook.

The analyst anticipates FY25 cash earnings of between $375-385m, up 9-12% year-on-year, with cash return on equity (ROE) at 6.5% and a 2c rise in the second-half dividend to 20c.

Management has aimed to rebalance the loan portfolio by reducing home lending and redirecting funds into business loans. Yet, the pace of home loan run-off during a period of strong system growth has been sharper than expected by the broker, weighing on overall portfolio performance.

Morgans cuts its FY26 and FY27 earnings forecasts by -4% and -6%, respectively, mainly on lower forecast loan balances. The target price is lowered to $6.20 from $6.60. Trim rating retained.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $7.22 Difference: minus $1.02 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.38, suggesting downside of -12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CSL as Buy (1) -

Correction: earlier it was suggested the US and CSL agreed on Most Favored Nation (MFN) pricing for Medicaid and future drugs, that should have been the US and Pfizer. FNArena apologises for any confusion that might have resulted from this error.

The US and Pfizer agreed on Most Favored Nation (MFN) pricing for Medicaid and future drugs, plus a US$70bn on shoring investment and Section 232 tariff exemption.

UBS notes CSL's MFN exposure is limited to Medicaid which is around 10% of US sales, representing an estimated (and unmitigated) -4% impact (or -US$210m) to FY27 EBIT. This is sharply down from prior worst case scenario of -US$1.3bn risk.

The broker reckons direct-to-consumer MFN pricing is unlikely to affect CSL’s products. Additionally, the company could gain full Section 232 tariff exemption by investing US$1.5-2bn in its US fractionation facility, removing a potential  -13% EBIT drag.

Overall, MFN and tariff impacts are seen manageable with mid-single digit EBIT impact.

Buy. Target unchanged at $300.

The UBS report was published on Friday.

Target price is $300.00 Current Price is $205.34 Difference: $94.66
If CSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $276.82, suggesting upside of 34.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DRR as Equal-weight (3) -

Greater tolerance for inflation signals the onset of an environment characterised by lower interest rates, higher inflation, and a softer US dollar, all favourable for commodities and the mining sector, highlights Morgan Stanley.

In this context, the broker reiterates its Attractive industry view, upgraded last quarter, as miners continue to trade at appealing valuations relative to industrials.

Iron ore has historically benefited from periods of US dollar weakness, observe the analysts. While new supply remains a potential headwind, it's felt consensus forecasts are reasonable.

The broker's target for Deterra Royalties rises to $4.35 from $4.00. Equal-weight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $4.16 Difference: $0.19
If DRR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.34, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Sell (5) -

After recently upgrading gold price forecast when spot gold touched US$3,600/oz, UBS notes the price has already moved higher to US$4,000/oz.

On this occasion, the broker isn't upgrading price estimates but is considering a scenario in which it lifted long-term price forecast to US$3,200/oz from US$2,800/oz. This would push NPVs higher for gold stocks by 25% in the broker's view.

The broker expects few surprises at the upcoming quarterlies but highlights catalysts for gold miners will be delivery of production in line with guidance, and generating free cash flow. 

The broker remains of the view the sector’s strong balance sheets and cash generation will support shareholder returns via dividends and buybacks. However, limited new discoveries, depleting assets, and shrinking reserves may push management toward increased M&A activity.

Under a flat spot (real) gold price scenario of US$4,000/oz, the broker sees 62% upside to Evolution Mining's target price.

Sell. Target unchanged at $7.90.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $11.25 Difference: minus $3.35 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.11, suggesting downside of -27.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Overweight (1) -

Greater tolerance for inflation signals the onset of an environment characterised by lower interest rates, higher inflation, and a softer US dollar, all favourable for commodities and the mining sector, highlights Morgan Stanley.

In this context, the broker reiterates its Attractive industry view, upgraded last quarter, as miners continue to trade at appealing valuations relative to industrials.

Iron ore has historically benefited from periods of US dollar weakness, observe the analysts. While new supply remains a potential headwind, it's felt consensus forecasts are reasonable.

The broker's target for Fortescue rises to $21.20 from $19.90. Overweight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $21.20 Current Price is $19.25 Difference: $1.95
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.54, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GGP as Buy (1) -

Greatland Resources pre-released September quarter production of 80.89koz of gold and around 3.37kt of copper, which annualised comes in above the miner's guidance range of 260-310koz for FY26, Citi notes.

All-in-sustaining costs are expected to be lower at the end of FY26 compared to guidance of $2,400-$2,800/oz. Net cash was $750m and better than both Citi and consensus estimates.

The full September quarter results are due on October 27, and management is anticipated to highlight the reconciliation of stockpiles and open cut to date following the July downgrade.

Citi notes the December quarter should bring forth a study for the expanded Havieron satellite. The analyst is anticipating commencement in 2028.

Buy rating remains with a lift in target price to $9 from $8.70.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.35 Difference: $0.65
If GGP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.73, suggesting upside of 18.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GMD as Buy (1) -

After recently upgrading gold price forecast when spot gold touched US$3,600/oz, UBS notes the price has already moved higher to US$4,000/oz.

On this occasion, the broker isn't upgrading price estimates but is considering a scenario in which it lifted long-term price forecast to US$3,200/oz from US$2,800/oz. This would push NPVs higher for gold stocks by 25% in the broker's view.

The broker expects few surprises at the upcoming quarterlies but highlights catalysts for gold miners will be delivering production in line with guidance, and generating free cash flow. 

The broker remains of the view the sector’s strong balance sheets and cash generation will support shareholder returns via dividends and buybacks. However, limited new discoveries, depleting assets, and shrinking reserves may push management toward increased M&A activity.

Under a flat spot (real) gold price scenario of US$4,000/oz, the broker sees 67% upside to Genesis Minerals' target price.

Buy. Target unchanged at $6.50.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $6.14 Difference: $0.36
If GMD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.64, suggesting downside of -8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IDX as Buy (1) -

Following a visit to Integral Diagnostics's new and the third MRI at Olympic Park in Melbourne, Bell Potter reaffirms its bullish outlook on the company.

The new MRI scans around 50 patients/day, lifting total site throughput to 135/day, with 80% bulk-billed, and incremental margins at the practice around 50%. 

The site operates 14 hours daily, seven days a week, and includes a mini day-procedure hospital to enhance efficiency and patient outcomes.

The broker highlights MRI/CT tailwinds underpin double-digit medium-term earnings growth and a potential re-rating.

No change to forecasts. Buy retained with $4 target price.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: $1.3
If IDX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.57, suggesting upside of 32.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IFT as Buy (1) -

Citi reiterates its Buy rating on Infratil with a NZ$14.10 target price on the back of CDC's independent valuation for the September quarter, which revealed a 0.6% or $32m rise in the mid-point valuation to $6,780m.

The upgrade comes on the back of a 2.2% valuation increase, or $148m, in the prior quarter, bringing the CDC valuation up around 3% since March reporting.

The analyst believes this confirms the potential NAV upside for CDC as well as possible NAV increases for other Infratil businesses.

The stock is trading around -25% to its reported NAV, which is greater than the historical circa -14% average.

Current Price is $10.95. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Underweight (5) -

Greater tolerance for inflation signals the onset of an environment characterised by lower interest rates, higher inflation, and a softer US dollar, all favourable for commodities and the mining sector, highlights Morgan Stanley.

In this context, the broker reiterates its Attractive industry view, upgraded last quarter, as miners continue to trade at appealing valuations relative to industrials.

Regarding lithium, the broker expects battery electric vehicle (BEV) and energy storage system (ESS) sales in China to continue exceeding expectations. Mineral Resources is Morgan Stanley's preferred lithium exposure.

For IGO Ltd, the broker's target rises to $4.60 from $3.90. Underweight rating unchanged. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $5.32 Difference: minus $0.72 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.12, suggesting downside of -4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Overweight (1) -

Greater tolerance for inflation signals the onset of an environment characterised by lower interest rates, higher inflation, and a softer US dollar, all favourable for commodities and the mining sector, highlights Morgan Stanley.

In this context, the broker reiterates its Attractive industry view, upgraded last quarter, as miners continue to trade at appealing valuations relative to industrials.

Regarding rare earths, Morgan Stanley notes pricing is increasingly bifurcated, a trend reinforced by growing government support for strategic mineral projects.

The broker retains an Overweight rating on Iluka Resources, citing an attractive valuation and potential upside from a recovery in the US housing cycle. The target rises to $8.60 from $6.40. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $7.48 Difference: $1.12
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.39, suggesting downside of -15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates INR as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter has initiated coverage of ioneer with a Speculative Buy rating and target price (valuation) of 36c.

The company's 100%-owned Rhyolite Ridge lithium-boron project in Nevada is fully permitted and designed to produce 22ktpa lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) and 127ktpa boric acid over 25 years, with an 82-year reserve life.

All-in-sustaining cost (AISC) is low at US$5,626/t due to benefit from boric acid co-production (20-25% of revenue). The company has offtakes secured with Ford, Toyota/Panasonic, and EcoPro.

A US$996m loan from US Department of Energy is in place and an asset-level sell-down (up to 50%) is expected by early 2026 to fund the US$1.7b capex. The broker expect FID in mid-2026 and first production from 2029.

Projected EBITDA averages US$360m in the first five year of production (2030–34) based on a long-term lithium price estimate of US$19,000/t.

Target price is $0.36 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.14
If INR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHX as Neutral (3) -

Citi expects James Hardie Industries to report 2Q26 adjusted earnings (EBITDA) of between US$326-US$331m against consensus of around US$279m.

The analyst's sales forecast of US$1.29-US$1.30bn sits some 10% above consensus. The company has flagged net profit after tax of US$151-US$157m, which at the midpoint is around 67% higher than circa US$91m previously guided.

Destocking is attributed as the main factor for the improved guidance. Assuming minimal destocking effects in 3Q26 and none in 4Q26, the broker estimates the 2Q26 results imply FY26 EBITDA could be approximately 7-10% above current Visible Alpha consensus.

Target $33 and Neutral rating unchanged.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $30.24 Difference: $2.76
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.22, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates KAR as Buy (1) -

Citi acknowledges a near-term hit to the share price on negative sentiment around the operational shutdown of Karoon Energy's PRA-2 well at Bauna.

This delays around 1.6kbpd or circa 8% of Bauna production, and 6% of the group, with remediation costs of around -US$5m for the company.

Production guidance for 2025 remains unchanged after a robust 3Q report from Bauna versus the analyst's forecast.

Citi lifts 2025 core earnings estimate by around 3% on 3Q production and lowers 2026 earnings forecast by circa -19% due to deferred output and downtime.

Buy rating unchanged. Target falls to $2.20 from $2.40.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.56 Difference: $0.64
If KAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.08, suggesting upside of 37.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LYC as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Greater tolerance for inflation signals the onset of an environment characterised by lower interest rates, higher inflation, and a softer US dollar, all favourable for commodities and the mining sector, highlights Morgan Stanley.

In this context, the broker reiterates its Attractive industry view, upgraded last quarter, as miners continue to trade at appealing valuations relative to industrials.

Regarding rare earths, Morgan Stanley notes pricing is increasingly bifurcated, a trend reinforced by growing government support for strategic mineral projects.

While this backdrop remains constructive, Morgan Stanley sees value in taking some profits on Lynas Rare Earths as the share price approaches $20.

The broker raises its target to $19.45 from $14.75 but downgrades to Equal-weight from Overweight, despite noting Lynas trades on multiples well below US-based MP Materials. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $19.45 Current Price is $19.27 Difference: $0.18
If LYC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.32, suggesting downside of -31.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Overweight (1) -

Greater tolerance for inflation signals the onset of an environment characterised by lower interest rates, higher inflation, and a softer US dollar, all favourable for commodities and the mining sector, highlights Morgan Stanley.

In this context, the broker reiterates its Attractive industry view, upgraded last quarter, as miners continue to trade at appealing valuations relative to industrials.

Iron ore has historically benefited from periods of US dollar weakness, observe the analysts. While new supply remains a potential headwind, it's felt consensus forecasts are reasonable.

Regarding lithium, the broker expects battery electric vehicle (BEV) and energy storage system (ESS) sales in China to continue exceeding expectations.

Mineral Resources is Morgan Stanley's preferred iron ore and lithium exposure. The target is raised to $49.00 from $41.50. Overweight retained. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $49.00 Current Price is $42.30 Difference: $6.7
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.03, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MSB as Speculative Buy (1) -

The US CMS has assigned Mesoblast's Ryoncil (remestemcel) a permanent J-Code (J3402) effective 1 October, 2025, providing a clear, standardised reimbursement pathway under Medicaid and private insurance.

Bell Potter reckons this removes a major barrier to hospital adoption, enabling confident ordering for on-label use. The pricing indicates reimbursement at US$205,640 per vial (average selling price plus 6%).

This implies US$1.5m per patient before -13% discount based on 8 vials per course.

The broker forecasts FY26 Ryoncil revenue of US$72m, rising to US$303m in FY27 as paediatric penetration lifts and adult use begins.

Speculative Buy. Target rises to $4.00 from $3.50.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: $1.33
If MSB meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NEM as Buy (1) -

After recently upgrading gold price forecast when spot gold touched US$3,600/oz, UBS notes the price has already moved higher to US$4,000/oz.

On this occasion, the broker isn't upgrading price estimates but is considering a scenario in which it lifted long-term price to US$3,200/oz from US$2,800/oz. This would push NPVs higher for gold stocks by 25% in the broker's view.

The broker expects few surprises at the upcoming quarterlies but highlights catalysts for gold miners will be delivering production in line with guidance, and generating free cash flow. 

The broker remains of the view the sector’s strong balance sheets and cash generation will support shareholder returns via dividends and buybacks. However, limited new discoveries, depleting assets, and shrinking reserves may push management toward increased M&A activity.

Under a flat spot (real) gold price scenario of US$4,000/oz, the broker sees 25% upside for Newmont Corp's target price.

Buy. Target unchanged at $140.

Target price is $140.00 Current Price is $133.82 Difference: $6.18
If NEM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NST as Neutral (3) -

After recently upgrading gold price forecast when spot gold touched US$3,600/oz, UBS notes the price has already moved higher to US$4,000/oz.

On this occasion, the broker isn't upgrading price estimates but is considering a scenario in which it lifted long-term price to US$3,200/oz from US$2,800/oz. This would push NPVs higher for gold stocks by 25% in the broker's view.

The broker expects few surprises at the upcoming quarterlies but highlights catalysts for gold miners will be delivering production in line with guidance, and generating free cash flow. 

The broker remains of the view the sector’s strong balance sheets and cash generation will support shareholder returns via dividends and buybacks. However, limited new discoveries, depleting assets, and shrinking reserves may push management toward increased M&A activity.

Under a flat spot (real) gold price scenario of US$4,000/oz, the broker sees 96% upside for Northern Star Resources' target price.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $21.10.

Target price is $21.10 Current Price is $24.79 Difference: minus $3.69 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $23.32, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PDN as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Greater tolerance for inflation signals the onset of an environment characterised by lower interest rates, higher inflation, and a softer US dollar, all favourable for commodities and the mining sector, highlights Morgan Stanley.

In this context, the broker reiterates its Attractive industry view, upgraded last quarter, as miners continue to trade at appealing valuations relative to industrials.

Regarding uranium, Morgan Stanley turns more constructive. The target for Paladin Energy is increased to $9.50 from $7.30 and the rating is upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $8.80 Difference: $0.7
If PDN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.99, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PLS as Overweight (1) -

Greater tolerance for inflation signals the onset of an environment characterised by lower interest rates, higher inflation, and a softer US dollar, all favourable for commodities and the mining sector, highlights Morgan Stanley.

In this context, the broker reiterates its Attractive industry view, upgraded last quarter, as miners continue to trade at appealing valuations relative to industrials.

Regarding lithium, the broker expects battery electric vehicle (BEV) and energy storage system (ESS) sales in China to continue exceeding expectations. Mineral Resources is Morgan Stanley's preferred lithium exposure.

For Pilbara Minerals, the broker's target rises to $2.85 from $2.30. Overweight retained. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: $0.25
If PLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.26, suggesting downside of -16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PRU as Buy (1) -

After recently upgrading gold price forecast when spot gold touched US$3,600/oz, UBS notes the price has already moved higher to US$4,000/oz.

On this occasion, the broker isn't upgrading price estimates but is considering a scenario in which it lifted long-term price to US$3,200/oz from US$2,800/oz. This would push NPVs higher for gold stocks by 25% in the broker's view.

The broker expects few surprises at the upcoming quarterlies but highlights catalysts for gold miners will be delivering production in line with guidance, and generating free cash flow. 

The broker remains of the view the sector’s strong balance sheets and cash generation will support shareholder returns via dividends and buybacks. However, limited new discoveries, depleting assets, and shrinking reserves may push management toward increased M&A activity.

Under a flat spot (real) gold price scenario of US$4,000/oz, the broker sees 61% upside to Perseus Mining's target price.

Buy. Target unchanged at $5.10.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.97 Difference: $0.13
If PRU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.80, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIC as Buy (1) -

UBS believes there is a considerable opportunity for Ridley Corp from a turnaround in the recently purchased fertiliser business (IPF).

Industry research suggests there is scope for staff incentives, cost cutting with efficiency uplift, as well as better pricing strategies and service, noting the acquired business was mature and had underperformed for a prolonged period.

Applying base synergy assumptions, UBS forecasts earnings (EBITDA) from IPF to rise to $87.5m in FY29 from $83.5m in FY26.

If management can achieve what they have historically managed in terms of a turnaround, the upside range for UBS' earnings (EBITDA) forecasts stands at $98-$124m, or a CAGR of 5-14% to FY29.

In turn, this infers EPS upside for Ridley Corp of between 8%-30% and valuation potential of over $4 per share.

Buy rated with an upgraded target price of $3.50 from $2.80.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: $0.6
If RIC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Equal-weight (3) -

Greater tolerance for inflation signals the onset of an environment characterised by lower interest rates, higher inflation, and a softer US dollar, all favourable for commodities and the mining sector, highlights Morgan Stanley.

In this context, the broker reiterates its Attractive industry view, upgraded last quarter, as miners continue to trade at appealing valuations relative to industrials.

Iron ore has historically benefited from periods of US dollar weakness, observe the analysts. While new supply remains a potential headwind, it's felt consensus forecasts are reasonable.

While there is scope for upside in base metals, much of it appears already priced in, according to the broker. It's noted copper is well placed to benefit from lower interest rates and a weaker US dollar, but pure-play miners trade at elevated valuations.

Regarding lithium, the broker expects battery electric vehicle (BEV) and energy storage system (ESS) sales in China to continue exceeding expectations.

For Rio Tinto, the target price rises to $129.50 from $121 and the Equal-weight rating is kept. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $129.50 Current Price is $124.18 Difference: $5.32
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $120.08, suggesting downside of -4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RIO as Accumulate (2) -

Leveraging existing West Angelas processing infrastructure, Ord Minnett notes Rio Tinto and its partner Robe River joint venture will invest US$733m to sustain production of 35m tonnes of iron ore at West Angelas. First ore from new deposits is flagged for 2027.

The analyst considers the expansion of Robe River lowers the risk profile around reserve depletion for Rio, with capital intensity of US$421 per tonne in line with management's guidance and viewed as a positive result.

West Angelas is one of the miner's four projects noted at the London Investor Day to generate around 130Mtpa of replacement capacity.

Ord Minnett believes Rio Tinto is well positioned to achieve its medium-term capacity target of 345-360Mtpa.

No change in Accumulate rating and $127 target price.

Target price is $127.00 Current Price is $124.18 Difference: $2.82
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $120.08, suggesting downside of -4.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RRL as Sell (5) -

After recently upgrading gold price forecast when spot gold touched US$3,600/oz, UBS notes the price has already moved higher to US$4,000/oz.

On this occasion, the broker isn't upgrading price estimates but is considering a scenario in which it lifted long-term price to US$3,200/oz from US$2,800/oz. This would push NPVs higher for gold stocks by 25% in the broker's view.

The broker expects few surprises at the upcoming quarterlies but highlights catalysts for gold miners will be delivering production in line with guidance, and generating free cash flow. 

The broker remains of the view the sector’s strong balance sheets and cash generation will support shareholder returns via dividends and buybacks. However, limited new discoveries, depleting assets, and shrinking reserves may push management toward increased M&A activity.

Under a flat spot (real) gold price scenario of US$4,000/oz, the broker sees 104% upside to Regis Resources' target price.

Sell. Target unchanged at $5.40.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $6.16 Difference: minus $0.76 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.16, suggesting downside of -17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

Greater tolerance for inflation signals the onset of an environment characterised by lower interest rates, higher inflation, and a softer US dollar, all favourable for commodities and the mining sector, highlights Morgan Stanley.

In this context, the broker reiterates its Attractive industry view, upgraded last quarter, as miners continue to trade at appealing valuations relative to industrials.

While there is scope for upside in base metals, much of it appears already priced in, according to the broker. It's noted copper is well placed to benefit from lower interest rates and a weaker US dollar, but pure-play miners trade at elevated valuations.

For South32, the broker's target slips to $3.25 from $3.30. Overweight rating. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.93 Difference: $0.32
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.24, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates S32 as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett highlights the White House has approved what is viewed as a "controversial" project, Ambler Road. It is a 340km development that will provide access to large deposits of copper, zinc, cobalt, and other critical minerals in northern Alaska.

South32, together with US-based Trilogy Metals, is in the joint venture Ambler Metals, which includes the Upper Kobuk Minerals Project.

The analyst notes the US government is taking a 10% stake in Trilogy Metals, with a sell-down of South32's stake to 6% from 11%. South32 is retaining its 50% share of the Ambler Metals JV.

Ord Minnett does not include this in South32's valuation despite current US stock market pricing of Trilogy, which would equate to more than US$1.5bn for South32's 50% stake.

No change to Buy rating and $4 target. There have been no changes to the analyst's earnings estimates.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $2.93 Difference: $1.07
If S32 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.24, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SBM as No Rating (-1) -

St. Barbara has raised $58m via an institutional placement of 126.1m shares, with most of the funds to be directed to Simberi expansion final investment decision.

Macquarie notes Simberi is evolving to a low-cost sulphide processing operation from processing remnant oxides.

Post equity raising, the analyst lifts EPS forecasts by 8.9% for FY26 and 9.1% for FY27, with dilution in the latter years.

Macquarie remains on research restriction.

Current Price is $0.53. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Underweight (5) -

Greater tolerance for inflation signals the onset of an environment characterised by lower interest rates, higher inflation, and a softer US dollar, all favourable for commodities and the mining sector, highlights Morgan Stanley.

In this context, the broker reiterates its Attractive industry view, upgraded last quarter, as miners continue to trade at appealing valuations relative to industrials.

While there is scope for upside in base metals, much of it appears already priced in, according to the broker. It's noted copper is well placed to benefit from lower interest rates and a weaker US dollar, but pure-play miners trade at elevated valuations.

For Sandfire Resources, the broker's target rises to $11.45 from $8.35. Underweight rating. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $11.45 Current Price is $15.66 Difference: minus $4.21 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.68, suggesting downside of -19.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SKY as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter views a number of de-risking events at the Tallebung Project have taken place since initiating coverage on Sky Metals.

Extensive drilling has uncovered new shallow, high-grade tin-silver-tungsten zones outside the existing resource, with further infill and extensional drilling underway. Upgraded mineral resource is expected in 1H26, the analyst highlights.

Ore sorting and metallurgical trials have also demonstrated strong potential to lower processing costs and produce saleable tin concentrate, paving the way for a 2026 mine development study.

No change in Speculative Buy rating. Target rises to 12c from 8c. Bell Potter remains positive on tin markets and believes Sky will achieve significant value from the Tallebung Project.

Target price is $0.12 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.032
If SKY meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SM1 as Hold (3) -

Synlait Milk reported FY25 earnings (EBITDA) of NZ$107.2m, which met guidance according to Bell Potter.

Sales rose 12% on the prior year, with adjusted earnings (EBITDA) up 137% as expected.

The company announced the sale of its North Island assets to Abbott for around NZ$307m, with the transaction expected to complete in April 2026.

Bell Potter highlights its earnings forecasts are under review due to the company's portfolio adjustments and the shift of A2 Milk Company ((A2M)) EL product volumes to Yashili NZ from Synlait.

Target price is lifted to $0.72 from $0.585. No change to Hold rating.

Target price is $0.72 Current Price is $0.70 Difference: $0.02
If SM1 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.72, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates STM as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans highlights Sunstone Metals has total resources to JORC Code (2012) standards of 2.7moz gold equivalent at Bramaderos and 1.2moz at El Palmar, both in Ecuador.

The broker highlights Bramaderos’ higher-grade Limon epithermal target as a potential low-capital start-up opportunity before developing larger porphyries.

El Palmar hosts five porphyry copper/gold targets with substantial exploration upside and plans to move to full ownership by June 2026, explains the analyst.

Morgans maintains a Speculative Buy rating but lowers it target to 3.5c from 12c based on recent copper-gold porphyry resource transactions in Ecuador.

Target price is $0.04 Current Price is $0.02 Difference: $0.014
If STM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VAU as Neutral (3) -

After recently upgrading gold price forecast when spot gold touched US$3,600/oz, UBS notes the price has already moved higher to US$4,000/oz.

On this occasion, the broker isn't upgrading price estimates but is considering a scenario in which it lifted long-term price to US$3,200/oz from US$2,800/oz. This would push NPVs higher for gold stocks by 25% in the broker's view.

The broker expects few surprises at the upcoming quarterlies but highlights catalysts for gold miners will be delivering production in line with guidance, and generating free cash flow. 

The broker remains of the view the sector’s strong balance sheets and cash generation will support shareholder returns via dividends and buybacks. However, limited new discoveries, depleting assets, and shrinking reserves may push management toward increased M&A activity.

Under a flat spot (real) gold price scenario of US$4,000/oz, the broker sees 75% upside to Vault Minerals' target price.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $0.72.

Target price is $0.72 Current Price is $0.74 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If VAU meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.67, suggesting downside of -7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates VEE as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Veem's nine-year supply deal with Northrop Grumman marks a major step, Morgans suggests, following Level 1 supplier approval with Huntington Ingalls Industries–Newport News Shipbuilding.

These partnerships expand VEEM’s role in the US submarine program, explains the broker.

The company is raising $14m at $1.30 a share, cutting pro forma net debt to around $0.6m from $13.7m at end-FY25.

Management expects 1H26 earnings to be slightly below 1H25, with stronger 2H26 growth as new defence orders ramp up.

Morgans cuts its FY26 earnings forecast by -13% and lifts FY27 and FY28 by 2% each. The target price is raised to $1.66 from $1.30. The rating is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy on valuation.

Target price is $1.66 Current Price is $1.47 Difference: $0.195
If VEE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WEB as Buy (1) -

In the context of Web Travel offering a trading update less than two months after its financial result, the share price action this week to the latest trading update is viewed by Citi as a relief rally.

The analyst believes investors have taken comfort from a backdrop of reduced volatility compared to last year and weaker peer results that make Webjet’s outlook appear more resilient.

Softer European RevPar data as the boost from major sporting events cycles out, setting up easier year-on-year comparisons ahead provides additional comfort.

No new announcements were made by the company, the analyst notes. Rather the update was taken by the market as a de-risking event for 1H26 earnings. Target price remains at $5.50 with a Buy/High Risk rating.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $1.33
If WEB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.90, suggesting upside of 38.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WEB as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie regards Web Travel's 1H26 trading update as a slight beat, with total transaction value (TTV) slightly above guidance of at least $3.1bn and 1.7% higher than its expectation.

TTV margin guidance of at least 6.5% was reaffirmed, though 1H margin was softer (6.2–6.4%) due to the sale of its destination management company and mix effects.

The broker is now more confident of 6.5% as a sustainable margin floor, with lower-margin TTV regions expected to be offset by supply and customer mix optimisation.

Minor increases to FY26-27 EPS forecasts. Outperform.

Target rises to $6.98 from $6.74 on roll-forward.

Target price is $6.98 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $2.81
If WEB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.90, suggesting upside of 38.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WEB as Underweight (5) -

Management at Web Travel has pre-released interim results (March year-end), which Morgan Stanley notes were broadly in line with  consensus, highlighting bookings of 5.07m and total transaction value (TTV) of $3.17bn.

TTV margins of between 6.2–6.4% imply to the broker revenue of $197-203m, consistent with guidance.

Management reiterated full-year targets, including TTV margins of at least 6.5% for FY26 and record earnings (EBITDA) of over $139m at a group level.

Morgan Stanley observes the company maintained a TTV margin range despite the period being complete and awaits full results on November 25. 

Target price $4.25. Underweight. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $0.08
If WEB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.90, suggesting upside of 38.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WEB as Buy (1) -

Web Travel reported a trading update with 1H26 bookings of 5.07m, up from 4.30m in the prior period, with total transaction value of $3.17bn for 1H26 against $3.06bn a year earlier.

Revenue margins were flagged around 6.2-6.4% against Ord Minnett's forecast of 6.3%. Management still anticipates FY26 revenue margins to be at least 6.5% compared to the analyst’s 6.55% estimate.

Ord Minnett views the trading update as affirmation of the AGM guidance in late August, with Web Travel seemingly winning market share against an uncertain geopolitical environment.

The weak share price prior to the update suggests the market was primed for more disappointment, which makes this update "solid" and positive following FY25 revenue margins that were below expectations.

No change to Buy rating. Target moves to $7.53 from $7.37.

Target price is $7.53 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $3.36
If WEB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 81% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.90, suggesting upside of 38.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates WEB as Buy (1) -

Web Travel's 1H26 update showed bookings up 18% y/y to 5.07m and total transaction value (TTV) up 22% y/y to $3.17bn. This compared with the guidance for TTV of at least $3.1bn.

FY26 TTV margin was reiterated for at least 6.5%. Shaw and Partners reckons the update de-risks topline and revenue margins, with focus now on operating leverage ahead of the 1H26 result where record EBITDA is expected.

Regional performance was led by the Americas (up 27%), with Europe and APAC up 12%, and MEA flat.

The broker lifted FY26 EBITDA forecast by 2.4% and FY27 by 2.3%, after raising FY26 TTV by 2.1% and FY27 by 2.0%.

Buy. Target rises to $6.40 from $6.30.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $2.23
If WEB meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.90, suggesting upside of 38.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WEB as Buy (1) -

Web Travel delivered a solid 1H26 trading update, assesses UBS, with total transaction value (TTV) of $3.17bn, 2% ahead of the broker's forecast and the consensus.

Regional performance was strong, highlight the analysts, led by the Americas, up 27%, while Europe and APAC each rose 12% and Middle East and Africa were flat.

TTV margins of 6.2-6.4% imply to the broker revenue of around $200m, 4% above forecast and 1% ahead of consensus.

FY26 guidance is unchanged, with TTV margins of at least 6.5% and record earnings (EBITDA) expected at $145m versus consensus of $151m, note the analysts.

UBS attributes the stronger top-line result mainly to Americas growth and minimal currency impact but awaits further clarity on the margin flow-through to profit. Unchanged $5.75 target price and Neutral rating.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $1.58
If WEB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.90, suggesting upside of 38.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

Greater tolerance for inflation signals the onset of an environment characterised by lower interest rates, higher inflation, and a softer US dollar, all favourable for commodities and the mining sector, highlights Morgan Stanley.

In this context, the broker reiterates its Attractive industry view, upgraded last quarter, as miners continue to trade at appealing valuations relative to industrials.

Metallurgical and thermal coal prices remain low but steady, note the analysts and both are well positioned to benefit from China’s “anti-involution” policies aimed at improving industrial efficiency.

Rising steel demand in India, supported by new blast furnace capacity is expected to underpin the seaborne met coal market, while thermal coal could see upside from a La Nina-driven cold winter across North-East Asia.

For Whitehaven Coal, the broker forecasts over 17% operating cash flow (OCF) and around 10% free cash flow (FCF) on spot in FY26, with a combined dividend and buyback yield of 3.2%.

The target price eases to $8.00 from $8.30. Overweight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $6.52 Difference: $1.48
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.44, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ZIP as Buy (1) -

Citi views PayPal's launch of a holiday promotion as a negative for Zip Co, and indicative of rising competition. The promotion includes US consumers earnings 5% cashback through PayPal rewards points on BNPL purchases from now until year-end.

Applying app data from Sensor Tower the analyst notes PayPal has the highest app overlap with Zip at around 50% which is believed to reflect PayPal's large user base at around 440m active accounts in the June quarter.

The analyst highlights the major unknown is whether PayPal will underwrite BNPL purchases for the paycheck to paycheck user which is Zip's core customer.

The broker retains a Buy rating and $4.50 target.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.66 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If ZIP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.95, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources