Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates AMP as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Ord Minnett has reviewed its diversified financials and insurance coverage following a mixed September quarter. The broker sees a muted earnings outlook with ongoing headwinds weighing on near-term growth prospects.

While operating trends remain subdued, current valuation multiples already reflect much of the softer earnings profile, suggests the analyst.

The broker still sees upside for AMP after the class action settlement removed a major risk overhang.

With a stronger balance sheet and capital position, Ord Minnett believes the settlement effectively clears the decks for the wealth manager. Consequently, the broker's rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate. Target to $1.95 from $1.52.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $1.68 Difference: $0.27
If AMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.88, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates APE as Outperform (1) -

Eagers Automotive has bought a 65% equity stake in CanadaOne for $1,043m, which is composed of $386m in scrip and $658m in cash. The owner/founder of CanadaOne, Pat Priestner, will retain a 30% stake in operating companies and 35% in property.

The Canadian market is around 1.6x larger than the Australian market and has grown at a long-term rate of up to 5.5% versus the Australian market at 3.4%.

The deal will be funded by a $452m entitlement offer of around 21.5m new shares at $21, a discount of -28.4% from the close. Nick Politis picked up 100% of his pro rata entitlement.

The analyst tweaks EPS estimates down -4% for 2025 for dilution, and up 7% and 5% for 2026/2027, respectively.

Target price lifts to $29.98 from $27.33. Macquarie believes the re-rating in the stock is justified and reflects the higher quality rating ascribed to overseas opportunities and a possible earnings upgrade cycle boosted by rate cuts.

Target price is $29.98 Current Price is $29.32 Difference: $0.66
If APE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.76, suggesting downside of -19.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates APE as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Eagers Automotive has agreed to acquire a 65% stake in CanadaOne for $1,043m. The target is ranked among the country’s top five dealerships and holding over $700m in freehold property, highlights Ord Minnett.

The broker raises its target for Eagers to $31.00 from $23.50 and upgrades to Accumulate from Hold, given the deal will be around 15% earnings per share accretive on a pro-forma June 2025 basis.

Accretion will be supported by CanadaOne’s above-average sales, 4% return on sales, and strong parts and service contribution, explain the analysts.

The broker notes founder Pat Priestner retains 35% ownership and will also hold a 7% interest in Eagers, while Mitsubishi will invest -$50m in Eagers and acquire 20% of Easyauto123 for -$70m.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $29.32 Difference: $1.68
If APE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.76, suggesting downside of -19.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ASX as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett has reviewed its diversified financials and insurance coverage following a mixed September quarter. The broker sees a muted earnings outlook with ongoing headwinds weighing on near-term growth prospects.

While operating trends remain subdued, current valuation multiples already reflect much of the softer earnings profile, suggests the analyst.

For the ASX, Ord Minnett upgrades its rating to Accumulate from Hold, reflecting a more appealing valuation and what the broker sees as reduced earnings risks for the market operator. The target is reduced to $63.00 from $64.50.

Target price is $63.00 Current Price is $58.59 Difference: $4.41
If ASX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $62.97, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CAR as Buy (1) -

Citi believes CAR Group will benefit from improving conditions in the US leisure market, with RV dealers expressing cautious optimism and powersports sales gaining momentum from aggressive promotions.

A decline in long-term rates should ease affordability pressures for powersports, note the analysts. Hiring trends also suggest a pick-up in Trader Interactive's headcount, which is considered a positive indicator despite dealer numbers still down year-on-year.

The overall backdrop for Trader Interactive is improving, which the broker suggests may support price increases in the first quarter of 2026.

Citi retains a Buy rating and $42.55 target.

Target price is $42.55 Current Price is $37.36 Difference: $5.19
If CAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.14, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CGF as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett has reviewed its diversified financials and insurance coverage following a mixed September quarter. The broker sees a muted earnings outlook with ongoing headwinds weighing on near-term growth prospects.

While operating trends remain subdued, current valuation multiples already reflect much of the softer earnings profile, suggests the analyst.

The broker maintains a positive view on Challenger, supported by anticipated federal regulatory changes that would enhance the appeal of annuities for Australia’s expanding retiree market.

The Accumulate rating is maintained and the target increased to $9.85 from $9.00.

Target price is $9.85 Current Price is $8.63 Difference: $1.22
If CGF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.84, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CPU as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett has reviewed its diversified financials and insurance coverage following a mixed September quarter. The broker sees a muted earnings outlook with ongoing headwinds weighing on near-term growth prospects.

While operating trends remain subdued, current valuation multiples already reflect much of the softer earnings profile, suggests the analyst.

For Accumulate-rated Computershare, the broker's target eases to $41.55 from $42.00

Target price is $41.55 Current Price is $36.80 Difference: $4.75
If CPU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.49, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GLF as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley retains a positive view on residential-exposed stocks including Stockland, Gemlife Communities and Mirvac Group.

The broker's 8th Australian Alphawise survey showed the biggest positive change in 2025 for investors, with the First Home Guarantee expected to help, and revealed a positive outlook for residential sentiment.

The survey showed 55% of potential buyers indicated they were interested in buying for investment this year, up from 35% in 2024.

Gemlife Communities is rated Overweight. Target set at $5.40. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.54 Difference: $0.86
If GLF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

Two recent announcements support Citi's view that Goodman Group is delivering on its strategy to grow data centre assets.

The LAX01 Vernon data centre development in LA has reached a "topping out" phase, i.e. the structural framework is completed, and is viewed as a significant event for the group. Construction started in March this year.

It is anticipated to be power-ready by late 2026, with a leasing deal expected soon. LAX01 will be 32MW of IT power (49.5MW) and will be powered by Vernon Public Utilities.

Citi also pointed to a US$1.3bn logistics partnership in the US with a large Australian institutional investor who will acquire a 49% stake. Goodman will retain 51% and manage the assets.

Buy rating and $40 target are retained.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $33.70 Difference: $6.3
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.65, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IFL as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has reviewed its diversified financials and insurance coverage following a mixed September quarter. The broker sees a muted earnings outlook with ongoing headwinds weighing on near-term growth prospects.

While operating trends remain subdued, current valuation multiples already reflect much of the softer earnings profile, suggests the analyst.

For Hold-rated Insignia Financial, the broker's target eases to $4.80 from $5.00

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.50 Difference: $0.3
If IFL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JBH as Buy (1) -

Growth in Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) retail categories slowed to 3.1% year-on-year in August, from 4.8% in July. Food sales rose 1.7% y/y but alcohol and tobacco declined -18.7%, on weaker tobacco sales, explains Citi.

The broker observes discretionary spending momentum eased, with household goods up 3.0% year-on-year and department stores up 2.8%, both softer than July. Western Australia and Queensland were the strongest states, while New South Wales underperformed.

Citi expects momentum to lift in the December quarter as spending shifts to Black Friday.

The broker's top retail picks remain JB Hi-Fi, Harvey Norman ((HVN)),  Super Retail ((SUL)), and Coles Group ((COL)).

No change to forecasts for JB Hi-Fi. The target price of $120 and the Buy rating are maintained.

Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $118.26 Difference: $1.74
If JBH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $108.97, suggesting downside of -8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MGR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley retains a positive view on residential-exposed stocks including Stockland, Gemlife Communities and Mirvac Group.

The broker's 8th Australian Alphawise survey showed the biggest positive change in 2025 for investors, with the First Home Guarantee expected to help, and revealed a positive outlook for residential sentiment.

The survey showed 55% of potential buyers indicated they were interested in buying for investment this year, up from 35% in 2024.

Equal-weight for Mirvac Group. Target $2.45. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.29 Difference: $0.16
If MGR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.45, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MPL as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett has reviewed its diversified financials and insurance coverage following a mixed September quarter. The broker sees a muted earnings outlook with ongoing headwinds weighing on near-term growth prospects.

While operating trends remain subdued, current valuation multiples already reflect much of the softer earnings profile, suggests the analyst.

For the health insurers, the broker's revenue and margin expectations have been revised lower.

Ord Minnett continues to favour nib Holdings over Medibank Private, citing a stronger earnings outlook and more appealing valuation.

The target for Medibank Private rises to $5.10 from $4.80. Accumulate rating maintained.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.86 Difference: $0.24
If MPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.05, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NHC as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Morgans updated its model for New Hope on transition of coverage to Chris Creech, adjusting production, costs, capex, and key inputs.

Notable changes included a lower WACC, delayed Safeguard impacts, reduced New Acland yields, revised short-term ROM production, and higher capex.

FY25 result was described as solid by the broker, considering the -8% y/y net profit decline was achieved amid -16% y/y fall in thermal coal prices. 

Looking ahead, the broker notes production growth is supported by low-cost, high-margin, long-life assets, underpinning long-term strength.

Upside comes from thermal coal prices likely having found a natural floor, making the company a high-quality exposure to the next price cycle.

Target trimmed to $4.35 from $4.45. Rating downgraded to Accumulate from Buy.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $3.95 Difference: $0.4
If NHC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.13, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NHF as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Ord Minnett has reviewed its diversified financials and insurance coverage following a mixed September quarter. The broker sees a muted earnings outlook with ongoing headwinds weighing on near-term growth prospects.

While operating trends remain subdued, current valuation multiples already reflect much of the softer earnings profile, suggests the analyst.

For the health insurers, the broker's revenue and margin expectations have been revised lower.

Ord Minnett continues to favour nib Holdings over Medibank Private, citing a stronger earnings outlook and more appealing valuation.

The target for nib Holdings rises to $8.50 from $7.65, and the rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $7.52 Difference: $0.98
If NHF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.89, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NIC as Neutral, High Risk (3) -

Citi revised its model for Nickel Industries to factor in ENC acquisition payment delays and a new US$800m bond issuance.

The two ENC acquisition payments of US$126.5m each are now due in 1H27, a delay of six months. The US$800m 9% senior unsecured notes maturing 2030 will replace the 11.25% $400m notes that were due to amortise Oct 2028.

The broker expects US$250m to be used to repay existing Indonesian debt. While bond refinancing and bank debt repayments are positive outcomes, the larger new issuance means higher interest payments, the broker explains.

Catalysts ahead include RKAB permit at Hengjaya mine, outstanding $100m VAT refund and ENC commissioning in 1H2026.

Neutral, High Risk. Target rises to 80c from 70c on roll forward.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.76 Difference: $0.045
If NIC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.04, suggesting upside of 37.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QBE as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has reviewed its diversified financials and insurance coverage following a mixed September quarter. The broker sees a muted earnings outlook with ongoing headwinds weighing on near-term growth prospects.

While operating trends remain subdued, current valuation multiples already reflect much of the softer earnings profile, suggests the analyst.

For general insurers, the trading backdrop is becoming more challenging as both investment yields and premium rates soften, though the analyst believes share prices already capture much of this outlook.

Ord Minnett prefers Steadfast Group over the insurers, given brokers typically experience less margin volatility and are trading at relatively inexpensive valuations compared to historical levels.

The target for QBE Insurance falls to $24.30 from $25.50. Hold maintained.

Target price is $24.30 Current Price is $21.10 Difference: $3.2
If QBE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.54, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SCG as Buy (1) -

Scentre Group continues to execute effectively on debt refinancing, driving lower financing costs, a key catalyst highlighted by Citi.

The company issued EUR500m of 8-year senior notes, which worked out to 129.5bps margin over 3m BBSW after swapping back into AUD. This is -8.5bps lower than the 138bps margin achieved from $1bn senior notes issued last month.

The weighted average cost of senior issuances stood at a 220bps margin and subordinated at 370bps margin at the 1H result, and the broker expects this to have decreased, lowering finance costs.

Buy. Target unchanged at $4.60.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.13 Difference: $0.47
If SCG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SDF as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has reviewed its diversified financials and insurance coverage following a mixed September quarter. The broker sees a muted earnings outlook with ongoing headwinds weighing on near-term growth prospects.

While operating trends remain subdued, current valuation multiples already reflect much of the softer earnings profile, suggests the analyst.

For general insurers, the trading backdrop is becoming more challenging as both investment yields and premium rates soften, though the analyst believes share prices already capture much of this outlook.

Ord Minnett prefers Steadfast Group over the insurers, given brokers typically experience less margin volatility and are trading at relatively inexpensive valuations compared to historical levels.

Target for Steadfast Group eases to $6.65 from $6.80. Buy maintained.

Target price is $6.65 Current Price is $6.13 Difference: $0.52
If SDF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.85, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGP as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley retains a positive view on residential-exposed stocks including Stockland, Gemlife Communities and Mirvac Group.

The broker's 8th Australian Alphawise survey showed the biggest positive change in 2025 for investors, with the First Home Guarantee expected to help, and revealed a positive outlook for residential sentiment.

The survey showed 55% of potential buyers indicated they were interested in buying for investment this year, up from 35% in 2024.

Morgan Stanley remains Overweight rated with a $6.90 target price on Stockland.

Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $6.16 Difference: $0.74
If SGP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.28, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SUN as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has reviewed its diversified financials and insurance coverage following a mixed September quarter. The broker sees a muted earnings outlook with ongoing headwinds weighing on near-term growth prospects.

While operating trends remain subdued, current valuation multiples already reflect much of the softer earnings profile, suggests the analyst.

For general insurers, the trading backdrop is becoming more challenging as both investment yields and premium rates soften, though the analyst believes share prices already capture much of this outlook.

Ord Minnett prefers Steadfast Group over the insurers, given brokers typically experience less margin volatility and are trading at relatively inexpensive valuations compared to historical levels.

The target for Suncorp Group rises to $22.50 from $22.00. Hold maintained.

Target price is $22.50 Current Price is $20.50 Difference: $2
If SUN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.80, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources