Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates ALD as Outperform (1) -

Industry refining margins are likely moving through a cyclical low, according to Macquarie, noting these margins (diesel/jet) at Ampol have begun improving.

The company has completed refinery maintenance, capex will pass a peak in 2024, and -$50m of cost reductions will soon be harvested, highlights the broker. 

Outperform. The target rises to $33.75 from $32.35.

Target price is $33.75 Current Price is $28.55 Difference: $5.2
If ALD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.34, suggesting upside of 16.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BBT as Add (1) -

BlueBet Holdings confirmed the company is on track to achieve monthly earnings profitability by the end of 1H25.

Pleasingly, Morgans observes November trading month-to-date is well above the previous year, with momentum assisted by a strong Spring racing carnival.

Management indicated a net win margin of 15.8% across the four days at Flemington. The broker lifts the 2Q25 net forecast to 10.2%.

Morgans is upbeat about the company's outlook due to higher marketing spending, which is expected to increase consumer awareness and market share.

Target price is raised to 35c from 33c. Add rating retained.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.075
If BBT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BEN as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes recent coverage by the Financial Review suggesting Treasury is considering a regional services bank levy, with potential implications for Bendigo & Adelaide Bank.

The analysts explain major banks may be required to either maintain regional points of presence or pay a levy.

Morgan Stanley believes Bendigo & Adelaide Bank is most likely to receive an annual credit, though the net benefit is expected to be smaller than reported in the media, contributing less than 5% to earnings.

Target price $12. Equal-weight. Industry View In-Line.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $13.54 Difference: minus $1.54 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.74, suggesting downside of -20.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BVS as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners maintains its Buy rating and $1.70 target for Bravura Solutions after management at the AGM reiterated FY25 earnings (EBITDA) and cash earnings guidance.

The analysts note a growing pipeline and ongoing strategy execution.

The broker sees potential upside to its forecast terminal FY34 cash earnings margins of 18%, as management targets best-in-class cash earnings margins of around 30%.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.66 Difference: $0.045
If BVS meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CCX as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

Bell Potter downgrades City Chic Collective to Sell from Hold and halves the target price to 7c from 14c.

The company provided a 20-week trading update for 1H25 at the AGM, with trading revenue falling -4.8% on the previous year. A&NZ full-price store sales grew 7.5% year-on-year, though the rate of growth had slowed since the start of FY25.

US online sales declined further. A&NZ online sales showed some "green shoots" with 3.4% growth.

Management pointed to revenue and earnings at the lower end of the FY25 guidance range, though the broker does not believe this can be achieved based on the delay in the company's recovery.

Following the update, Bell Potter has downgraded earnings forecasts by -47% in FY25 and -34% in FY26. Sell rated. Target price 7c.

Target price is $0.07 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: minus $0.025 (current price is over target).
If CCX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.16, suggesting upside of 45.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CNB as Outperform (1) -

Carnaby Resources has expanded its total resource base by 27% through the acquisition of the Trekelano copper deposits for approximately -$9m. As part of the transaction, management raised $17m in two tranches at 31c per share.

Macquarie highlights the proximity of the Trekelano deposits, located only 20km from the company’s existing tenements at Greater Duchess.

Regarding Greater Duchess, management separately announced a binding agreement with Glencore for tolling and offtake of 100% of product, highlights the broker.

Macquarie raises the target price to 90c from 88c and retains an Outperform rating.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0.495
If CNB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 122% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FND as Buy (1) -

Findi's 1H operating revenue of $30.7m came in materially below Ord Minnett's $40m forecast, largely the result of Indian general elections during which restrictions are placed on the movement of both cash and travel over a six-week period.

Better-than-expected cost control saw earnings (EBITDA) delivery of $12.9m, only a slight miss on the broker's $14.1m forecast.

Management's FY25 guidance, assuming a strong 2H skew, is retained.

The target falls to $7.76 from $8.72. Buy.

Target price is $7.76 Current Price is $5.50 Difference: $2.26
If FND meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GQG as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS has downgraded GQG Partners to Neutral from Buy with the broker anticipating a period of cyclical weakness in fund flows ahead for the asset manager.

Interestingly, the downgrade is not inspired by the much publicised Adani exposure with which UBS feels "comfortable". 

UBS's research has discovered funds flows into the International Opportunities fund have pretty much ground to a halt recently.

The broker also believes positive outperformance over 3-5 year horizons will be somewhat diluted by one-year underperformance as stronger historical performance numbers roll off.

Target drops to $2.30 from $3.30.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.09 Difference: $0.21
If GQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.00, suggesting upside of 35.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HUB as Neutral (3) -

Citi's key takeaways from Hub24's investor day include the strategic focus on improving the adviser experience via increased investments in technology and data capabilities as a point of difference from competition.

Management is also seeking to expand the market with Discover as a low-cost solution and leveraging the Class and My Prosperity acquisitions.

Both remain in the early phase of development and have the scope to increase funds under management, the broker suggests.

Citi is not expecting consensus upgrades but highlights its estimates currently sit 5%-7% above earnings consensus.

Neutral. Target price rises 33% to $75.50.

Target price is $75.50 Current Price is $75.25 Difference: $0.25
If HUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $63.07, suggesting downside of -15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates HVN as Buy (1) -

At the AGM, Harvey Norman revealed aggregate sales growth of 1.7% for July 1 to October 31, supported by growth in all four main markets, Bell Potter observes.

Malaysia and Singapore traded below expectations. Australia's growth of 3.1% was boosted by franchisees, and Ireland outperformed.

The analyst is looking for improved growth into the seasonally stronger November-December trading period. Bell Potter's forecast sales revenue is lowered to 2% growth for 1H25 from 2.4% post the update.

Like JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)), the broker believes there is "sizeable upside" from the AI-driven upgrade cycle in consumer electronics in FY25.

Target price unchanged at $5.80 with a Buy rating.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $4.81 Difference: $0.99
If HVN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.95, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IMB as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans initiates coverage of Intelligent Monitoring with a Speculative Buy rating and a 70c target price.

The broker highlights the company provides monitored security solutions in A&NZ, and the recent acquisition of ADT has transformed the business. Some 210k businesses, homes, and individuals are served.

ADT was a neglected business but has brought forth a strong brand presence, the analyst states, and has boosted earnings to $24.5m in FY24 from $3m-$6m in FY19-FY23.

Management aims to return ADT Commercial to its leadership position of over $130m in revenue, up from just over $1m at the time of acquisition.

The broker explains the security industry is highly fragmented, offering potential for further acquisitions. Speculative Buy. Target price 70c.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $0.145
If IMB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MTS as Neutral (3) -

On first inspection, Citi notes Metcash's 1H25 earnings came in 2% above forecast but -1% below consensus estimates.

Underlying net profit was in line with recent guidance. Hardware, down -15%, and liquor came in lower than anticipated, while food was better than expected, up around 4%, the broker highlights.

Management's trading update for the first four weeks of 2H25 revealed an improvement in liquor, with sales up 4.4% against a flat implied result from September 8 to October 20.

Food sales, excluding Superior Foods and IHG, were in line, and the company expects a better result from hardware in 2H25.

Neutral rated. Target price $3.40.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.43 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If MTS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.61, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MTS as Buy (1) -

UBS notes Metcash reported 1H25 profit after tax at the upper end of guidance. Sales growth of 6.3% met expectations, with underlying earnings below the broker's forecast by -1.4% and -0.8% below consensus.

Underlying net profit, down -5.5% at $134.6m, was at the top end of guidance, with a dividend per share at 8.5c, above UBS's estimate but below the market's.

Sales for the first four weeks of 2H25 grew 8%, boosted by acquisitions. Trading for 2H25 is expected to be better than 2H24. Management has lowered capex guidance to -$205m from -$235m.

On balance, the broker observes food performed better, hardware and liquor were below expectations, and cash realisation remained subdued at 66% compared to the three-year average of 85.5%. Hardware remains challenged, the broker highlights.

Buy with a $3.60 target price.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.43 Difference: $0.17
If MTS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.61, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NST as Buy (1) -

Citi provides an early assessment of today's offer by Northern Star Resources to acquire De Grey Mining ((DEG)) for $2.08 per share, suggesting the deal is likely to complete given the significant premium to the last traded share price.

The analysts note the transaction addresses Northern Star's ageing and capital-intensive portfolio, enhancing its growth potential.

De Grey's Hemi deposit is expected to add around 530koz per annum, with a recent scoping study indicating potential to reach 700koz per annum when including regional deposits, explains the broker.

Citi sees additional upside from underground exploration opportunities.

Buy rating. Target $18.30.

Target price is $18.30 Current Price is $16.13 Difference: $2.17
If NST meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.25, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PAR as Speculative Buy (1) -

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals is now in a position to start phase 3 trials for the new drug application Zilosul for treating knee osteoarthritis.

Bell Potter notes the company does not have sufficient funding for the trials, and the board is considering options including raising equity or partnering options.

A Speculative Buy rating is retained. Target price is raised to 80c from 47c.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: $0.305
If PAR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PNI as Add (1) -

Morgans observes the $400m equity placement for Pinnacle Investment Management, with an additional $25m SPP. Around -$143m is targeted for two new offshore affiliate stakes and circa -$182m for other growth plans, mainly Horizon 3 acquisitions.

The analyst notes acquisitions of equity stakes in VSS (US-based) and Pacific Asset Management (UK-based) allow for increased exposure to offshore private market assets for VSS.

The latter offers exposure to technology-based adviser solutions and single-manager solutions.

Morgans upgrades EPS forecasts by 9% and 9.6% for FY25 and FY26, respectively. Add rating retained. Target price lifts to $27.25 from $21.50.

Target price is $27.25 Current Price is $24.36 Difference: $2.89
If PNI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.98, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PPE as Buy (1) -

PeopleIN’s first-quarter earnings (EBITDA) aligned with Ord Minnett's forecast, with management on track to deliver similar earnings in the second quarter as market conditions show signs of stabilisation.

Cash flow conversion improved, returning to the company’s typical 80%-85% range, observes the analyst. Net debt/normalised earnings declined to 1.7 times from 2.1 times as of June 30, reflecting improved financial positioning, highlights the broker.

Ord Minnett raises the target price to $1.14 from $1.12 and maintains a Buy rating.

Target price is $1.14 Current Price is $0.98 Difference: $0.16
If PPE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates QBE as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Bell Potter downgrades QBE Insurance to Hold from Buy due to the strong share price performance. Target price shifts to $19.20 from $19.05.

The broker highlights the Q3 trading update revealed growth in gross written premium of 2%, including rate increases of 5.9% and portfolio exits of -2%.

Premium rate increases across the group declined to 4.9% from over 8% a year earlier. Management retained 2024 guidance, with catastrophe losses at circa US$950m year-to-date compared to a budget of US$1.28bn for 2024.

Hold rated. Target price $19.20.

Target price is $19.20 Current Price is $20.24 Difference: minus $1.04 (current price is over target).
If QBE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.70, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RFG as Buy (1) -

Retail Food's 1Q25 trading update came in lower than Bell Potter's expectations. Domestic sales grew 1.8% year-on-year, which was weaker than forecast due to lower net new outlet growth.

Cafe, Coffee & Bakery sales grew 5.2% year-on-year. In contrast, quick-service restaurants continued to face challenging conditions, with industry traffic declining -1.3% in 1Q25 compared to the prior year. Network sales fell -6.3% due to increased competition.

The broker now expects more store closures and a weaker recovery in quick-service restaurants.

Bell Potter's net profit forecasts are lowered by -5% and -4% for FY25 and FY26.

Target price slips -5% to 10.5c. Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $0.11 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0.033
If RFG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SHV as Buy (1) -

Select Harvests reported FY24 net profit in line with guidance, with revenue up 84% year-on-year and a turnaround in earnings to profitability from losses in FY23.

Post-leasing cash outflow came in at -$12.1m compared to -$27.5m in FY23, with net debt reduced to $162.3m from $237.9m at 1H24, boosted by the capital raising, Bell Potter highlights.

Management noted minimal weather disruptions year-to-date, and almond prices are forecast to rise in 2025 to levels seen four to five years ago.

Bell Potter lifts net profit after tax forecasts by 4% for FY25 and 9% for FY26. Target price rises to $5 from $4.60. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.18 Difference: $0.82
If SHV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.78, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SHV as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Ord Minnett raises its target price for Select Harvests to $4.95 from $4.60 and upgrades its rating to Buy from Accumulate following solid FY24 results.

The broker sees potential upside in FY25 driven by the global almond price rally, a good (but not outstanding) crop bloom, and stable cost escalations. Costs are rising, but remain within inflation levels, according to the broker.

As expected, no dividend was declared. 

Target price is $4.95 Current Price is $4.18 Difference: $0.77
If SHV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.78, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SXG as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter highlights the advancements made over 2024 by Southern Cross Gold in the Sunday Creek project with mineralisation discoveries outside the initial exploration areas.

The company is expected to have six drill rigs on-site, and the broker believes some "important milestones" will be achieved in 2025, including an upgrade in the exploration target to 3moz of gold equivalent at 10g/t gold equivalent.

The broker has updated the possible development scenarios to value Sunday Creek given the new mineralisation discoveries.

No change to Speculative Buy rating. Target price is raised to $4 from $2.05.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.09 Difference: $0.91
If SXG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WC8 as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett cuts its target price for Wildcat Resources to 50c from 80c following the release of the maiden resource estimate for the Tabba Tabba lithium-tantalum project in Western Australia's Pilbara region.

The broker attributes the lower target to challenges in the lithium market and a lower ore grade being shipped to the mill. Additionally, the previously forecast valuation premium for the project's second stage has been removed.

Ord Minnett notes once the lithium market improves, the company is unlikely to face significant hurdles in securing financing, given Tabba Tabba’s status as Australia’s largest undeveloped lithium prospect. The Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.25
If WC8 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WTC as Buy (1) -

WiseTech Global's investor day on December 3 is likely to be keenly observed, with the number one focus being the depth of management, followed by the state of new product releases, Citi states.

The new product, Global Customs, offers strong revenue potential, so Citi expects questions around the global rollout wins following the FedEx and Kuehne & Nagel wins in FY23 and what is on the horizon for new wins and potential take-up by customs brokers.

This segment, which is not yet global, could represent around 50% of transactions. The analyst is also seeking clarification on Landslide Logistics, the potential for Container Transport Optimisation, and the rollout of Compliance Wise (released in October).

The question of price increases is topical, given logistics operator DSV recently pointed to cost pressures.

Long-term earnings margins are also of interest, alongside new product developments with generative AI, the broker notes.

Buy rated. Target price $124.50.

Target price is $124.50 Current Price is $127.77 Difference: minus $3.27 (current price is over target).
If WTC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $139.79, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources