Australian Broker Call

Shaw and Partners rates A1M as Buy (1) -

A set of updates by AIC Mines, with a lift in group ore reserves and detailed production targets over the next few years.

Shaw and Partners notes group mineral reserves rose to 9.0Mt, showing a 45% increase in contained copper and a 52% increase in contained gold. Copper reserves at Jericho were up 77% and at Eloise it was 12% higher.

The broker believes the Eloise project is now in a strong position, and the company already has plans to expand to 1.1mtpa from 750kt. EPC contracts are likely to be awarded in May and debt funding negotiations are progressing well.

Buy, High risk. Target unchanged at $1.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: $0.65
If A1M meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 186% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.77, suggesting upside of 119.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AFG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Australian Finance Group's total lodgements rose 18.5% year-on-year in 3Q25, with volumes up 10.4% and average loan size 7.3% higher.

The broker's analysis showed AFG Home loan lodgement was $1.5bn in 3Q vs $1.4bn in 2Q, with 56% being AFG's own funded AFG Securities product. The analyst reckons the data points to upside risk to settlements in 2H25 (broker's estimate is 20% growth).

Outperform. Target rises to $1.80 from $1.68 on updated market multiple and valuation roll forward.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $0.1
If AFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AIA as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie assesses the decline in Auckland International Airport's passenger volumes in 3Q25 points to slight downside risk to the airport's 2H25 passenger volume guidance.

International passenger volume fell -2.3% y/y in March and by -3.8% for domestic volume. For 3Q, international is down -0.8% and domestic is down -2.5%, which compares with the required 4.7% growth in international passenger volume and -2% fall in domestic to meet the guidance.

The broker observed the airport has readily accepted the ComCom's final PSE4 pricing determination. The analyst expects a -11% discount in each of FY26-27 and a similar reduction in revenue, but sees the risk of a 40/60 or 30/70 bias to FY27.

Outperform. Target unchanged at NZ$8.63.

Current Price is $7.43. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AIZ as Neutral (3) -

Yesterday's guidance by Air New Zealand for pre-tax profit of NZ$150-190m fell below the UBS estimate of NZ$226m (consensus NZ$224m) due to lower engine compensation and increased operating costs. 

The analysts expect FY25 earnings to mark the trough for the company, but Engine maintenance delays and higher airport charges are expected to push the return to pre-covid capacity out to FY27. 

Despite weaker yields and cargo demand, valuation support is underpinned by a strong balance sheet and a planned $100m share buyback, explains the broker.

UBS retains a Neutral rating with an unchanged price target of NZ63 cents.

Current Price is $0.54. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALD as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes Ampol's Lytton refinery was a drag on 1Q25 earnings before interest and tax due to weak realised margins, while non-refining margins strengthened. The company was not eligible for Fuel Security Services Payment from the cyclone impact.

The broker upgraded FY25 convenience retail earnings before interest and tax by 3.4% on higher fuel margins and shop contribution. Macquarie also lifted the outlook for New Zealand business on rising fuel sales volume, fuel margins and shop sales.

The analyst assessed whether Lytton refinery will be restructured or closed, noting investors are losing patience with capex spend and cash burn from the refinery. The federal government may find it difficult to prevent its closure, according to the broker.

Neutral. Target cut to $23.50 from $23.70.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $20.65 Difference: $2.85
If ALD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.40, suggesting upside of 32.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALD as Overweight (1) -

Ampol is expected to receive a "muted" response by the market to the March 2025 quarter results, according to Morgan Stanley, with the stock already down -24% year-to-date compared to the ASX200 Energy sector down -20% and the ASX200 Industrial up 1%.

The company reported a Lytton refinery margin of US$6.07/bbl, up 32% on the previous quarter and down -49% on a year earlier, on production of 1.38m bbl.

Fuel sales came in at 6.1bn litres, down -18% on the previous quarter and -7% on a year previously.

The broker highlights Ampol expects ongoing margin compression in refining margins this quarter and modest volumes and margin tailwinds. Management confirmed the cost-out target of -$50m for 2025.

Overweight rated. Target price retained at $30. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $20.65 Difference: $9.35
If ALD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.40, suggesting upside of 32.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALD as Buy (1) -

Ampol’s March quarter update was negatively impacted by Cyclone Alfred, notes UBS. This caused a ten-day shutdown at the Lytton refinery and pushed refining margins to US$6.07/bbl, well below the consensus forecast of US$8.30/bbl.

Despite refining pressures, the broker highlights resilience in Convenience Retail and Fuels & Infrastructure (F&I) Australia, both growing earnings (EBIT) at between 4-5% year-on-year.

The analysts expect refining margins will recover modestly in 2H25 and flag stable performance in Convenience Retail as a key support.

UBS cuts the target price to $31.10 from $31.40 and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $31.10 Current Price is $20.65 Difference: $10.45
If ALD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.40, suggesting upside of 32.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMI as Outperform (1) -

Aurelia Metals released the closing cash balance of $106.7m for end-March, ahead of the quarterly report on April 23, and it was $18.7m higher than Macquarie's forecast. 

The broker has lifted 3Q production estimate based on the cash balance, which pushed up FY25 EPS by 9%.

The company approved the development of Great Cobar and the feasibility study showed capital costs of $91.8m, higher than broker's $80m estimate. The broker incorporated the project into the forecasts for the first time, which supports its Outperform rating.

Outperform. Target price 31c.

Target price is $0.31 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.04
If AMI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AV1 as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter expects Adveritas to report a strong March quarter, forecasting annualised recurring revenue (ARR) growth of 68% year-on-year to approximately $9m, supported by a large $1m contract. 

While the broker forecasts a net operating cash outflow of -$0.6m, management has flagged the potential for positive cash flow during the quarter.

Bell Potter retains its FY25 ARR forecast of $10.2m, rising to $16.3m in FY26 and $23.6m in FY27.

The company continues to build traction in e-commerce and digital agencies, adding to its leadership in sports betting fraud prevention, with around 50 active clients, observe the analysts.

Bell Potter retains a Buy (Speculative) rating and maintains its target at 12c.

Target price is $0.12 Current Price is $0.08 Difference: $0.04
If AV1 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BOQ as Sell (5) -

Citi understands the market's favourable reaction to Bank of Queensland's 1H25 result, given the 10% beat to consensus on cash earnings. However, a deeper analysis showed the beat was due to a very low bad debt charge of $3m, as some commercial debt issues were resolved.

The broker notes operating costs were also lower than expected, but going ahead, doesn't expect either bad debt or operating costs to provide the same benefits to earnings.

The key question for the broker is the path to the bank's return on equity (ROE) goal of 8%,  as the 1H was just 6.2%. This would require revenue improvement where there's a lot of uncertainty, and up to four rate cut expectations by Citi analysts.

The analyst thinks the bank would have to optimise the funding mix, which means more expensive funding.

Sell. Target unchanged at $6.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $6.86 Difference: minus $0.86 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.15, suggesting downside of -14.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BOQ as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie notes Bank of Queensland is making progress on its transformation strategy but sees the FY26 return on equity target of 8% and cost-to-income ratio of 56% as still "unattainable" even if cost targets are met.

The broker highlights the cost reduction in 1H25 was mainly due to lower investment spend of -$50m and doesn't believe this is sustainable.

For the quarter, the bank reported flat h/h margins, and looking ahead, the broker expects volumes to stay weak mainly on falling mortgage balances.

FY25-26 pre-provision earnings were cut by -1%, but EPS forecasts raised by 6% and 4%, respectively, on lower impairments and lower share count on AT1 redemption.

Underperform. Target unchanged at $5.75.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $6.86 Difference: minus $1.11 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.15, suggesting downside of -14.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BOQ as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -

On balance, Morgan Stanley sees Bank of Queensland as making solid progress on the bank's transformation post the 1H25 results and upgrades the stock to Equal-weight from Underweight. Target price moves to $6.60 from $6.20.

The analyst points to low loan losses as boosting earnings and expects the market will like the results. Cash profit came in above forecast by 5% and 10% above consensus due to the low loan loss charge.

Credit quality has remained "sound" and the CET1 is below Morgan Stanley's estimate but in line with consensus. A 1c increase in the dividend per share to 18c beat expectations.

Morgan Stanley lifts EPS forecasts by 7% for FY25 and around 3% for FY26.

The sector view remains In-Line.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $6.86 Difference: minus $0.26 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.15, suggesting downside of -14.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BOQ as Hold (3) -

Morgans highlights Bank of Queensland announced better-than-expected 1H25 earnings and dividend results, with management staying pat on the FY26 target for return on equity and capital ratio tier 1.

If achieved, this supports a "material" upgrade to earnings forecasts and a valuation of over $10, the broker explains.

First-half EPS grew 7% on the previous half and was above consensus by 11%. Lower costs and loan impairment expenses boosted the results on a slight decline in revenue of -1%. An 18c dividend, fully franked, was declared, 1c above expectations.

Net interest margin was flat at 157bps, in line with the previous quarter. Morgans lifts EPS estimates by 3% for FY25 and 6% for FY26.

Target price rises to $7.04 from $6.95. No change to Hold rating.

Target price is $7.04 Current Price is $6.86 Difference: $0.18
If BOQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.15, suggesting downside of -14.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BOQ as Sell (5) -

Bank of Queensland’s 1H cash net profit rose by 7% half-on-half to $183m, supported by a -5% reduction in costs and a lower credit loss ratio of 1bps versus the 5bps expected by UBS.

Overall, the result exceeded expectations, with EPS of 27.9c and an 18c dividend, representing beats of 11.2% and 6.7%, respectively, compared to the broker's forecasts.

FY25 guidance remains unchanged, but UBS lifts earnings forecasts across FY25-27 by 7.7%, 3.8% and 1.8%, respectively, citing improved capital discipline, reduced impairments and lower cost assumptions.

The broker retains a Sell rating and maintains the $6.50 target price.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $6.86 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.15, suggesting downside of -14.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CNU as Outperform (1) -

Chorus' 3Q25 update showed 9,000 new fibre connections, taking the uptake to 72%. Copper connections fell -16k and Macquarie notes 19k copper connections remain in areas where the company has fibre availability.

The company shifted its annual price revision timing to January from October for simplification reasons. FY25 guidance was reiterated, and the broker notes the implied solid 2H25 (earnings) EBITDA estimate reflects the price increase.

No change to forecasts. Outperform maintained.

Target unchanged at NZ$9.83.

Current Price is $7.40. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates COG as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter highlights a strong March quarter result for COG Financial Services, with group profit (NPATA) of $5.8m, up 9% year-on-year, driven by record performance in novated leasing, which rose by 54% to $3.7m.

The broker attributes strength in novated to a spike in demand for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles ahead of fringe benefits tax changes in April, with nearly 7,000 plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) sold in March alone across Australia.

Asset management and lending earnings (EBITDA) increased by 8% year-on-year, while finance broking and aggregation earnings fell by -27%.

Bell Potter raises its target price to $1.35 from $1.23 and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.2
If COG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.27, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COG as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes COG Financial Services reported a "solid" March quarter result with profits up 9% and net profit after tax rising to $5.9m, which was above the broker's forecast by 11%.

Novated leasing volumes and profit growth were the attributable factors. The Finance Broking & Aggregation segment continued to show some cyclical weakness while asset management and lending grew on a year earlier as margins stabilised.

The analyst lifts net profit after tax forecasts by 4%.

Buy rating and target raised to $1.38 from $1.34.

Target price is $1.38 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.23
If COG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.27, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GMD as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie highlights Genesis Minerals' 3Q25 result was strong with production beating its forecast by 10% due to higher processed grades and stronger recoveries.

Cash build of $91m was $25m higher than the broker's forecast, and cash balance at the end of the quarter was $293m.

The broker lifted the FY25 production forecast by 3% and raised the medium-term production outlook. The EPS forecast for FY25 was lifted by 2% and by 8% for FY26.

Neutral. Target price $4.20.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.39 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If GMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.02, suggesting downside of -8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates GMD as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Following Genesis Minerals' record production in 3Q25, Shaw and Partners lifted FY25 estimate to the upper end of the company's guidance range.

The broker notes the early restart of the Laverton mill and ramp-up to full capacity of 3mtpa have placed the company in a solid position to meet its accelerated growth strategy of 325kt before the FY29 target.

The broker recently upgraded gold price forecasts, and this, together with a higher production forecast, has increased the valuation and target price to $4.00.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy on recent share price gains.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.39 Difference: minus $0.39 (current price is over target).
If GMD meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.02, suggesting downside of -8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GMD as Buy (1) -

March quarter production was in line with expectations held by UBS. Production of 59.8koz included 4koz from ore purchase agreements. Costs were slightly higher-than-forecast including the ore purchased material.

FY25 guidance of 190-210koz remains on track, with UBS modelling 220koz including the purchased ore.

The Laverton restart continues to outperform and Tower Hill development remains on schedule for first ore in 2028, underpinning a ten-year production outlook of 350kozpa, highlight the analysts.

UBS retains a Buy rating and maintains the $4.50 target price.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.39 Difference: $0.11
If GMD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.02, suggesting downside of -8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ILU as Neutral, High Risk (3) -

Iluka Resources’ March quarter revenue of $260m was -11% below Citi's estimate, driven by a -5% sales volume shortfall and softer price realisations, with zircon, rutile and synthetic rutile prices down -8% versus forecasts.

Zircon prices fell around -7% quarter-on-quarter, but appear to have stabilised early in the June quarter, with contracted volumes to date of 78kt, notes the broker.

Citi highlights US tariffs on zircon will apply from April, though the US accounted for just 6% of zircon sales. Rare earths, including magnet materials, are exempt from US tariffs but may face Chinese export controls.

Citi lowers its target price to $4.40 from $5.10 and retains a Neutral (High Risk) rating, noting there are cheaper mining sector alternatives.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: $0.83
If ILU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.15, suggesting upside of 36.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ILU as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie assesses Iluka Resources' 1Q25 report as overall weak as sales and revenue fell short of forecasts, and production was broadly in line.

Production was 7% ahead of consensus, with rutile outperforming, but sales missed largely due to -38% miss on synthetic rutile due to shipment timing, and ilmenite shipments also missed forecasts. Total mineral sands sales was -19% below the broker's forecast.

The broker cut FY25 production estimate by -5% and incorporated a higher zircon proportion in the revenue mix, which resulted in a downgrade to earnings forecasts. EPS estimate for FY25 cut by -7% and for FY26 by -5%.

Outperform. Target trimmed to $6.50 from $6.80.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: $2.93
If ILU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 82% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.15, suggesting upside of 36.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Equal-weight (3) -

Iluka Resources reported first quarter 2025 results, and Morgan Stanley notes consolidated sales came in below consensus expectations but above the analyst's forecast by 6%.

Prices were generally softer, which resulted in zirconia, rutile, and synthetic rutile revenue down -14% and some -2% below the broker's estimate. With the kiln running at full capacity, synthetic rutile production came in at 55kt, Morgan Stanley states.

For the upcoming quarter, Iluka has contracted around 46kt/32kt of zircon/zircon in concentrate, with zircon prices in line with 1Q.

No change to the Equal-weight rating and target price at $3.65.

Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: $0.08
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.15, suggesting upside of 36.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ILU as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett views the Iluka Resources' 1Q 2025 result as offering little new information, with revenues coming in below consensus estimates by -11% due to lower volumes and prices.

The broker highlights zircon and rutile prices fell -7% over the quarter, and the analyst has lowered 2025 zircon prices by -6% and -3.7% in 2026, post management's updated pricing guidance.

On a positive note, Ord Minnett emphasises Iluka is transitioning to a rare earth producer and expects the company to invest $112m in capex in Eneabba, which is almost twice the previous quarter due to concrete pouring.

Buy rating. Target price lifts to $5.90 from $5.40.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: $2.33
If ILU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.15, suggesting upside of 36.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ILU as Neutral (3) -

March quarter results for Iluka Resources were in line with UBS estimates but slower on a sequential basis on seasonal factors and broader macroeconomic sentiment.

The broker sees the mineral sands market nearing a bottom, with zircon still in surplus and further clarity on Chinese anti-dumping duties expected in coming months.

Guidance for FY25 remains unchanged, with Balranald targeted for commissioning in the second half of 2025 and Eneabba in 2027.

The broker remains constructive on rare earths given growing geopolitical focus on supply chain diversification.

UBS retains a Neutral rating and an unchanged target price of $5.30.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: $1.73
If ILU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.15, suggesting upside of 36.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JHX as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett revisits James Hardie Industries for the weaker US volumes in the repair and remodel markets and the requirement to refinance a bridging facility being used to fund the cash portion of the Azek takeover with long-term financing.

The analyst explains the weak macroeconomic backdrop in the US, with consumer sentiment sinking and the prospect of higher price rises from tariffs. Industry players suggest to the broker there is lower interest in larger repair and remodelling projects as consumers downgrade expectations.

Ord Minnett believes FY26 volume forecasts are too high for the company and downgrades EPS estimates by -6% for FY26 and FY27.

No change to Hold rating. Target price declines to $41 from $47.

Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $34.18 Difference: $6.82
If JHX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $52.74, suggesting upside of 50.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates JIN as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter notes near-term earnings (EBITDA) pressure for Jumbo Interactive as growth in ticket sales slows from elevated pandemic levels, though strong lottery participation and product enhancements are expected to support a rebound into FY26.

The broker highlights FY25 is likely to mark a low point in margin, with improved outcomes expected from the OzLotto game update and further growth in the charity lottery segment.

Jumbo’s international business, including the UK and Canada, is also gaining traction but remains a modest contributor near-term, note the analysts.

While valuation remains full, the broker sees long-term upside from increased digital penetration, higher jackpot frequency, and margin recovery as marketing costs stabilise. 

Bell Potter lowers its target price to $11.10 from $13.20 and retains a Hold rating.

Target price is $11.10 Current Price is $10.12 Difference: $0.98
If JIN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.92, suggesting upside of 39.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates KAR as Buy (1) -

Karoon Energy is moving Neon Oil Field to the Define stage and also upgraded 2C reserves by 44%. Following this, Citi has incorporated Neon into the forecasts at 60% equity interest and lifted the risk weighting to 50% from 25%.

The broker raised the capex forecast by US$100m and deferred the final investment decision and first oil timeline by six months to 1H26 and 1H29, respectively. Peak production forecast was also lifted to 45kbpd from 40kbpd.

The broker notes the company's elevated exposure to oil price risk but pointed out its bear case oil price forecast of US$50/bbl in 2025-26 is well above the break even of less than US$40/bbl.

Buy. Target rises to $2.20 from $2.00.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.955
If KAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 77% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.20, suggesting upside of 64.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KAR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Karoon Energy's 1Q25 report was solid, with production 4% ahead of its estimate. While revenue fell short by -5%, it was due to the timing of Bauna shipments.

Two recent highlights include the return of Bauna's production to 27bopd, and a resource upgrade at the Neon oil field and defined development plan, bringing into frame a second Brazilian asset for the company. The broker lifted FY25 capex forecast to factor in Neon FEED costs.

FY25 EPS estimate was revised 3% higher following the solid 1Q, but FY26 was cut by -1% due to higher financing costs.

Outperform. Target lifted to $2.15 from $2.00. 

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.905
If KAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 73% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.20, suggesting upside of 64.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates KAR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley is anticipating a "muted" response to Karoon Energy's first quarter update and the progress on Neon development.

The broker notes 1Q 2025 production came in at 2.5mmboe, a decline of -9% on the previous quarter and down -20% on a year earlier, and below the analyst's estimate by -1%.

Revenue came in at US$148.6m, down -33% on 4Q 2024 and -9% on a year earlier. It was also below Morgan Stanley's forecasts and consensus by -7% due to reduced production and timing on Bauna shipments.

Capex guidance for 2025 rose to US$105–US$125m, with US$7m–US$10m for Neon Define phase 1.

Equal-weight and target price remains at $1.65. Industry view is In-Line. No change to EPS estimates.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.405
If KAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.20, suggesting upside of 64.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates KYP as Buy (1) -

Kinatico's 3Q25 update showed SaaS revenue of $4m, up $2m quarter-on-quarter and pointing to annual recurring revenue of $16m.

Shaw and Partners now believes its 2H25 revenue forecast looks conservative and lifted it to $8.3m from $7.3m.

The broker believes the company is shielded from tariff impacts due to its compliance and regulatory solutions.

Buy, High risk. Target rises to 29c from 28c.

Target price is $0.29 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.12
If KYP meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LOV as Sell (5) -

UBS lowers its FY26 net profit forecast for Lovisa Holdings by -19.4%, reflecting the impact of newly announced US tariffs on sourcing costs and potential demand softness.

The broker estimates tariffs will materially reduce gross profit margins and lead to slower earnings growth, despite some ability to offset costs through price increases and operating efficiencies.

Store rollout remains the key growth driver, believe the analysts,though net openings have slowed from FY23 levels. 

UBS cuts the target price to $23 from $27 and retains a Sell rating.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $23.82 Difference: minus $0.82 (current price is over target).
If LOV meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.68, suggesting upside of 24.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates MAU as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners has initiated coverage of Magnetic Resources with a Buy, High risk rating and target price of $2.53.

The company is developing the 100% owned Lady Julie Gold Project in Laverton, and the latest mineral resource estimate showed 1.92Moz at 1.80g/t gold. The broker highlights 80% of the resource is from the largest and highest-grade LIN4 deposit.

The company is due to release the feasibility study in the current quarter, which will pave the way for a formal decision to proceed to the construction phase. Data room is open for due diligence to gold producers 

The broker's estimate shows the company is trading at $188/oz resource multiple vs its peers at $275/oz.

Target price is $2.53 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: $1.01
If MAU meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 66% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MEI as Speculative Buy (1) -

Meteoric Resources has announced a maiden Mineral Resource Estimate of 398mt at 2,204ppm total rare earth oxides (TREO) for the Barra do Pacu deposit, part of its Caldeira ionic clay rare earths project in Brazil, explains Bell Potter,

This new resource complements the high-grade Capao do Mel deposit, points out the broker, and will contribute to the upcoming PFS, now in its final stages.

Bell Potter highlights the project's competitive advantage lies in low capital intensity per tonne of contained TREO at $0.2m and a superior magnetic rare earth oxides (MREO) enrichment of 22%, which increases basket value.

The Speculative Buy rating is maintained, but the target is lowered to 17c from 40c with forecast revisions by the analysts reflecting reduced assumptions for NdPr prices and updated funding requirements for the Southern Zone.

Bell Potter assumes a $280m equity raise at 10c.

Target price is $0.17 Current Price is $0.11 Difference: $0.06
If MEI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.24, suggesting upside of 87.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Outperform (1) -

In a flash update, Macquarie notes the resignation of two independent non-executive directors from the Mineral Resources board casts "serious" doubt over the ASX-disclosed executive transition plan, which the broker states it was taking comfort in.

The analyst has the company under review.

Outperform. Target price $35.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $16.61 Difference: $18.39
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 111% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.81, suggesting upside of 63.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NAN as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

Bell Potter highlights downside risk for Nanosonics from newly introduced 10% US tariffs, which apply to capital devices such as Trophon and Coris but exclude US-made consumables.

The broker estimates a greater than -10% impact to earnings (EBIT) from 2026, noting margins are already thin and offsetting measures are yet to be announced.

Sales growth in FY25 is guided at 11-14%, but the broker sees FY26 earnings under pressure from launch costs for Coris with limited offsetting revenue until FY27. 

Bell Potter cuts the target price to $4.05 from $4.80 and downgrades to Sell from Hold given valuation concerns and uncertain medium-term earnings visibility.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $4.85 Difference: minus $0.8 (current price is over target).
If NAN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NGI as Buy (1) -

Navigator Global Investments reported 3Q25 results which were basically in line with Ord Minnett's expectations, with the Strategic funds coming in slightly better than expected, the broker notes.

Strategic's assets under management grew around US$200m over the period, with Strategic Markets (Marble, Invictis and Longreach) lifting assets under management by 15% or US$300m, which offset the decline of -US$100m in assets under management from NGI Strategic Portfolio.

Ord Minnett makes slight changes to earnings estimates.

No change to Buy rating and $2.50 target price.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.73 Difference: $0.77
If NGI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PDN as Buy (1) -

Citi notes a class action served on Paladin Energy in the Supreme Court of Victoria alleging it contravened ASX continuous disclosure obligations between 27 June 2024 and 11 November 2024.

The company guided to FY25 UO8 production of 4.0-4.5mlb, and downgraded it to 3.0-3.6mlb in November. The class action states the initial guidance was too optimistic and the company failed to flag the material risk that it may not be met.

For context, the company disclosed ramp-up challenges on 28 October before downgrading guidance on 11 November.

Buy. Target unchanged at $10.20. 

Target price is $10.20 Current Price is $4.37 Difference: $5.83
If PDN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 133% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.28, suggesting upside of 81.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PPT as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi lowers its target for Perpetual to $18.25 from $24.80 and downgrades to Neutral from Buy after the company recorded net outflows of -$8.9bn in the March quarter, returning to peak levels seen in late-2024.

All asset management boutiques experienced outflows and performance metrics continue to deteriorate, observes the broker.

While equity markets provided modest mark-to-market support, the analyst notes outflows were driven by client reallocations and ongoing underperformance, particularly at Barrow Hanley and TSW.

Wealth Management was a bright spot, posting strong net inflows of $0.9bn, largely due to a new client win, though Citi sees no progress updates on the planned sale of this business or debt refinancing.

FY25 cost guidance was lowered to 3-4% growth from around 4%.

Target price is $18.25 Current Price is $15.63 Difference: $2.62
If PPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.36, suggesting upside of 31.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIC as Buy (1) -

UBS has cut its FY25 earnings (EBITDA) for Ridley Corp by -6% to $97m and FY26 by -5% to $107m, following the sale of its Wasleys feedmill and a weaker second-half trading update due to avian influenza and Cyclone Alfred.

The Wasleys sale to Baiada is expected to reduce annual earnings (EBITDA) by -$3.5m from FY26, partly offset by savings in depreciation and interest, explain the analysts.

UBS sees the transaction as strategically minor, with Baiada already accounting for most of the mill’s output.

The broker expects earnings to rebound in FY26 and FY27, projecting EPS growth of 20% and 12% year-on-year, respectively, as short-term headwinds unwind and operating leverage improves.

UBS lowers the target price to $2.80 from $2.90 and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.44 Difference: $0.36
If RIC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Rio Tinto's 1Q25 iron ore shipments of 70.0mt was down -17% q/q and fell short of Citi's forecast of 75.0mt, with lower-grade SP10 making up a bigger proportion of shipments (32%). Other commodities were broadly in line.

The company didn't revise FY25 shipment guidance but now expects to make it to the lower end of the 323-338mt range due to -13mt impact from bad weather. Plans are in place to offset some of this via additional investment of $150m.

No change to cost and capex guidance.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $130.

Target price is $130.00 Current Price is $108.37 Difference: $21.63
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $121.75, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Against consensus forecasts, Macquarie asserts the first quarter results from Rio Tinto were mixed, with weather impacting Pilbara and missing expectations by -4%, aluminium broadly in line, and copper coming in better than anticipated by 4%.

Concentrate production at Escondida was 11% above forecasts with better copper grades. The broker also points to lower grades as part of the Pilbara blend strategy as an aspect to watch. Maintenance, as planned, impacted Oyu Tolgoi, though March was a record month.

Macquarie continues to prefer BHP Group ((BHP)) over Rio due to better operating leverage and lower-risk assets.

Macquarie retains a Neutral rating, with the target price trimmed -1% to $115.

Target price is $115.00 Current Price is $108.37 Difference: $6.63
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $121.75, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley details Western Australian iron ore shipments were below the analyst’s and consensus forecasts by -4.5% and -3.7%, and production was also lower than forecast by -5.7% and -4.8%, respectively, due to the impact of cyclones on the Pilbara.

Copper production at 210kt beat both Morgan Stanley and consensus expectations, as did bauxite, while aluminium was broadly in line with estimates.

The company has assumed book debt of US$0.7bn post the Arcadium deal, with net debt expected to be US$14.2bn at the end of 2025.

Equal-weight with $115.50 target retained. Industry View: Equal-weight. No change to EPS estimates.

Target price is $115.50 Current Price is $108.37 Difference: $7.13
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $121.75, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RIO as Add (1) -

Rio Tinto reported a "softer" start to 2025, with the Pilbara operations impacted by weather events in the first quarter, which curbed iron ore output. Morgans remains concerned the company will need to rely on lower-grade products, underwriting potential earnings volatility.

Copper and aluminium performed well, with Oyu Tolgoi operating smoothly over the period, achieving record production in March.

The analyst continues to watch the trend of low-grade iron ore discounts.

No change to Add rating. Target price slips to $123 from $126.

Target price is $123.00 Current Price is $108.37 Difference: $14.63
If RIO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $121.75, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

March quarter iron ore production for Rio Tinto at the Pilbara was impacted by weather and FY25 guidance trimmed to the "lower end" of 323-338mt guidance range, as expected  by UBS. Ore quality remains low and continues to impact realised pricing, note the analysts.

Aluminium and bauxite operations were stable, with bauxite output exceeding expectations at 15Mt.

Copper production fell -8% quarter-on-quarter due to maintenance at Oyu Tolgoi and shipping issues at Escondida, explains UBS, though volumes are expected to recover in H2.

Simandou remains on track for first production by end-2025, highlights the broker, and the Rincon lithium project has commenced commissioning.

Neutral. Target $120.

Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $108.37 Difference: $11.63
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $121.75, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RMD as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes the analyst's 3Q25 operational forecasts for ResMed are broadly in line with consensus and include revenue growth of 8% for the quarter on a year earlier, with some margin improvements resulting in an EPS growth estimate of 9%.

The broker expects the market to concentrate on new patient starts, any possible impacts of Zepbound approval, margin guidance, potential tariff impacts, and capital deployment.

No change to the analyst's US$280 target price and Overweight rating for ResMed. Industry View: In-Line.

Current Price is $33.04. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $44.38, suggesting upside of 32.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SHV as Buy (1) -

Select Harvests has cut its FY25 almond crop forecast by around -10% to between 24,000-26,500t, marking a second downgrade and mitigating the benefit of stronger almond prices, notes Bell Potter.

The broker lifts FY25 almond price assumptions to $10.35/kg from $9.20/kg, supported by spot pricing above $11/kg and strong hedging by the company at an Australian dollar rate of 0.648.

Water cost inflation is expected from FY26, note the analysts, due to Southern Murray-Darling Basin storage levels falling to around 51%, leading to increased water pricing assumptions over FY26–27.

Buy. Target unchanged at $5.80 after the broker allows for a lower FY25 crop, rising almond prices across FY25-27, and elevated water costs in later years.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $1.2
If SHV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.60, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SHV as Buy (1) -

Select Harvests' business update was accompanied by another earnings downgrade, much to the chagrin of Ord Minnett.

The broker points to rising almond prices globally and, despite the company lifting price guidance by 12.5% to $10.35/kg from $9.20/kg, management still downgraded the outlook on crop to a lower range of 24,500mt to 26,500mt from 27,500mt to 29,000mt, or -10.6%.

At the midpoint, this is down by -14.5% on last year’s crop and below the industry average. The analyst details a decline in year-on-year volumes of -5.6%.

Ord Minnett lowers earnings (EBITDA) estimates by -9% to $98m, and the net profit after tax forecast falls by -23% to $39.5m.

Buy rating retained due to a rising almond price. Target price slips to $5.60 from $5.85.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $1
If SHV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.60, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SHV as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS raises its target for Select Harvests to $5.40 from $5.00 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral following a -15% share price decline.

The analysts also view the company as a beneficiary of rising almond prices supported by US tariffs as China reallocates almond imports away from California.

The broker lifts its FY25 almond price forecast to $10.35/kg from $9.20/kg, while also cutting crop volume guidance to 24-26.5kt due to weak yields.

Despite the volume downgrade, UBS raises its FY25 EBIT forecast by 7% to $61m and upgrades FY26 by 12% to $86m on a recovery in volumes and increased third-party processing.

UBS raises the target price to $5.40 from $5.00 and upgrades the rating to Buy from Neutral.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $0.8
If SHV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.60, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ZIP as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett highlights Zip Co has upgraded its FY25 cash earnings (EBITDA) guidance by around 4% due to a robust performance in the March quarter.

The company achieved higher revenue margins of 8.6% from 7.8% in the previous quarter alongside improved growth in total transaction value.

The company still has a low market penetration in North America and Ord Minnett likes the medium-term outlook. The analyst lifts cash earnings (EBITDA) by 5%–6% for the period from FY25–FY27.

No change to Buy rating. Target price falls to $3 from $3.60.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $1.72 Difference: $1.28
If ZIP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.07, suggesting upside of 84.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ZIP as Buy (1) -

Zip Co delivered a stronger-than-expected March quarter, notes UBS, with group revenue rising 26% year-on-year to $276m and cash earnings (EBITDA) reaching $46m, leading to upgraded FY25 guidance of at least $153m from $147m.

US customer growth accelerated to 9% year-on-year and revenue surged by 51% to $173m, exceeding the broker's expectations. Credit performance and user engagement also improved, while the A&NZ revenue margin rose 130bps quarter-on-quarter to 11.5%.

Group transaction volume (TTV) grew 36% to $3.3bn, with 6.3m total customers reported.

While macro risks remain, particularly in the US, UBS believes these are already priced in. The target price is lowered to $3.20 from $3.35. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $1.72 Difference: $1.48
If ZIP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 86% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.07, suggesting upside of 84.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources