Australian Broker Call

Shaw and Partners rates A1M as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners reminds investors AIC Mines is well positioned to benefit from continued upward momentum in the copper price (which recently hit two-year highs), given the company has no hedging and improved production.

The company has reported four "solid" quarters of production in a row and is on track to exceed FY24 production targets, highlights the broker.

Additionally, the analysts see upside at the Jericho deposit after the recent Swagman discovery, given proximity to the existing Eloise underground infrastructure.

Buy, High Risk and 90c target retained.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.415
If A1M meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 86% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates A4N as Speculative Buy (1) -

Alpha HPA's latest pricing update was better than Bell Potter's expectations.

Marketing and independent consultants inferring the price of High Purity Alumina equivalent (HPAe) is stronger than what the company indicated in its 2020 feasability study.

The better prices allow the broker to raise its already "conservative" price forecast to US$27.50/t from US$25/t of HPAe.

Management has also signed Letters of Intent to supply 2,290tpa to more than six end users with agreement for 1,290tpa in the last 3-weeks.

The broker's forecasts assume the final investment decision for the first HPA project around June, and the first production from 2026.

A Speculative Buy rating is retained and the target is lifted to $1.95 from $1.75.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $0.99 Difference: $0.965
If A4N meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 98% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ABB as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Aussie Broadband reconfirmed FY24 earnings guidance at the March quarter trading update where 33,159 subscribers were added, which is marginally below the Ord Minnett forecast of 34,704.

Around 132,000 customers are expected to migrate from the Origin White ((ORG)) label by October 2024, while the NBN market share lifted to 6.8% with 14,788 subscribers added over the quarter. Singapore results from Symbio should be earnings positive.

Ord Minnett forecasts EBITDA at $118.8m at the midpoint of management's EBITDA guidance of $118m-$121m. 

The rating is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy and the target is lifted marginally to $4.19 from $4.16.

Target price is $4.19 Current Price is $3.89 Difference: $0.3
If ABB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AGL as Accumulate (2) -

AGL Energy announced an earnings guidance upgrade for FY24 by 8% to $760m-$810m as a result of better generation volumes, improved power station availability and flexibility.

Ord Minnett notes that the considerable investment in upgrading its aging generation assets is paying off.

Management also highlighted that the upgrade is a result of more robust summer demand in New South Wales and Queensland.

The broker upgrades earnings forecasts to the midpoint of management guidance.

Accumulate with Fair value at $11.50.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $10.13 Difference: $1.37
If AGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.56, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

Neutral rating retained, as well as the $30 price target on second consideration of ANZ Bank's interim result, released yesterday. Estimates have been lifted by between 7%-3% (assisted by the $2bn buyback).

Update repeated to include updated forecasts.

Earlier, the broker had responded as follows:

UBS believes the market's focus is shifting towards the integration of the Suncorp bank business, while today's capital return announcement should be positively received.

On the broker's initial assessment, ANZ Bank's financial release today seems to have beaten expectations on most key metrics, including the interim dividend of 83c.

UBS categorises today's release as "largely in line", with positives coming through the $2bn buyback, the Suncorp bank integration and the prospect of further capital return.

ANZ Bank is the broker's local favourite, with the broker believing it is the least exposed bank to structural headwinds to retail bank profits.

Neutral rating and $30.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $29.12 Difference: $0.88
If ANZ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.57, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ARB as Buy (1) -

As a result of slightly slower than expected 3Q sales for ARB Corp, Citi lowers FY24-FY26 EPS forecasts by -2-3%.

The broker lists numerous positives in the outlook for ARB including stronger-for-longer trading conditions in Australia driven by a strong order book, reduced fitting constraints and supply normalisation. Balance sheet optionality to make acquisitions is also highlighted.

Regarding the US strategy, Citi likes that management is taking greater control over distribution and gaining richer customer insights from its new website. A promising partnership with Toyota is also noted.

The Buy rating is maintained and the target falls to $44.20 from $44.90.

Target price is $44.20 Current Price is $38.90 Difference: $5.3
If ARB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $39.02, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ARB as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley determines from yesterday's Q3 update by ARB Corp Q2 momentum has carried through to the Q3 and the overall trajectory is in line with consensus expectations. Key segment performances remain solid/improving, notes the broker.

The outlook is supported by improving new vehicle supply and order books in Australia, suggest the analysts, and exports are starting to trend positively.

Equal-weight. Target is $35.50. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $35.50 Current Price is $38.90 Difference: minus $3.4 (current price is over target).
If ARB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $39.02, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ARB as Hold (3) -

ARB Corp's March Q group sales revenue was up 6% year on year and up 2% in the nine months in FY24 to date, Morgans notes.

Positive outlook commentary focused on the order book, accelerating the store development, organic OEM sales growth and favourable trading to continue into the first half FY25. US expansion remains on track.

The solid sales update was broadly in line with Morgans' expectations. No margin or quantifiable order book commentary was provided. The broker views ARB as a high quality business with a long duration growth profile but it remains fully valued at current levels.

Target rises to $39.10 from $38.30, Hold retained.

Target price is $39.10 Current Price is $38.90 Difference: $0.2
If ARB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $39.02, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ARB as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

ARB Corp reported a 6.4% rise in 3Q24 sales with 9-month sales up 2.1%.

Breaking down the divisions, Ord Minnett notes domestic aftermarket sales lifted 6.8% in the 3Q and export sales fell -8.8%, with OEM up 25.5% over the quarter.

New vehicle sales underpinned growth in aftermarket sales, according to the analyst, and the company is expected to benefit from the investment in its network.

Target lifts to $44 from $42.50 and the rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $38.90 Difference: $5.1
If ARB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $39.02, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

Aurizon Holdings presented at the Macquarie conference, highlighting the 3Q was impacted by wet weather with a notable "drag" on Bulk with loss of rail lines in WA, Mt Isa, and somewhat in the Northern Territory.

Iron ore failed to provide any earnings relief with 3Q volumes down -8% to -10% and Macquarie expects Bulk to come in below budget for the 2H FY24.

Management has retained guidance with robust coal volumes, a 5% rise in QLD and 16% in NSW providing an offset to Bulk as they represent 90% of EBITDA.

The broker downgrades EPS forecasts by -4.8% and -0.1% for FY24 and FY25.

The target price is lowered to $3.73 from $3.85 and a Neutral rating is retained.

Target price is $3.73 Current Price is $3.85 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.91, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BAP as Neutral (3) -

Citi believes Bapcor will be facing increased competitive pressures, having noted Super Retail Group will be launching a website to grow its Super Cheap Auto trade business.

This news comes at a time when Bapcor is facing challenges around execution and management turnover, notes the broker.

Super Cheap will be aiming to leverage its store network in trade, explains the analyst, which at 337 stores (at 1H FY24) is almost 50% larger than the 226 stores in Bapcor’s trade division.

The Neutral rating and $4.70 target are unchanged.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.46 Difference: $0.24
If BAP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.71, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BC8 as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Black Cat Syndicate's updated restart study for the Paulsens project is largely unchanged, notes Shaw and Partners, apart from a $3,500/oz gold price assumption, up from $2,900/oz used in the November 2023 study.

The study represents the base case for secured debt funding, explains the broker.

The Buy, High Risk rating and 74c target are retained.

Target price is $0.74 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.46
If BC8 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 164% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -

Citi analysts, upon initial glance, believe CommBank's reported 3Q unaudited cash earnings of $2.4bn have beaten market consensus by 3-4%.

While the bad debt charge was slightly better than anticipated, the broker believes the key driver was largely better revenue. While the NIM is not detailed, the broker's analysis suggest there has been slight improvement, which would imply CommBank is performing better than its peers.

Sell rating and $82 target.

Target price is $82.00 Current Price is $119.74 Difference: minus $37.74 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $93.15, suggesting downside of -20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CBA as Sell (5) -

"Slower core earnings growth offset by better BDD outcome", such is UBS's initial response to today's release of March quarter financials by CommBank.

The result itself is seen as in line with market consensus. The broker suggests, despite a visible deterioration in asset quality metrics, the credit impairment charges reported today suggest some consensus upgrades are likely for 2H 24 cash earnings.

Also, CommBank continues to lean on its proprietary distribution channels to defend and drive volume growth in mortgages and this strategy has so far seen it grow at 0.7x system, highlights the broker.

Sell with a target price of $105.00.

Target price is $105.00 Current Price is $119.74 Difference: minus $14.74 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $93.15, suggesting downside of -20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DHG as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett doesn't warm to Domain Holdings Australia's pricing strategy which has resulted in market share losses in the weaker markets, Queensland and Western Australia, and they note management is looking to increase pricing by another 8% in FY25.

To offset the potential price hike, management will include the Audience Boost amplification feature with residential listings. Management envisages this provides a better value proposition and the broker thinks this is a potential winner if they succeed.

Post the 3Q trading update, Ord Minnett adjusts the Fair Value for a change in the time value of money, but the stock is still viewed as overvalued.

The Fair Value is raised to $2.60 from $2.50 and the Lighten rating is retained.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $3.15 Difference: minus $0.55 (current price is over target).
If DHG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.35, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DHG as Neutral (3) -

While UBS found Domain Holdings Australia's market update was in line with forecasts, broadly taken, there was also relative weakness to REA Group ((REA)) on listing volume growth.

Another slight negative remains higher cost growth. 

The Neutral rating is reiterated as the broker is not 100% confident on risks as yet. The target price has fallen to $3.55 from $3.75.

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $3.15 Difference: $0.4
If DHG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.35, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FLT as Neutral (3) -

The most important items from Flight Centre Travel's 3Q market update, according to UBS analysts, are: trading was in line with management's expectations and FY24 profit guidance remains intact.

The broker's analysis suggests the company needs to lifts its margin in H2 to meet the FY24 forecast (seen as achievable). The broker continues to see upside to FY25 projections.

Forecast left unchanged. Target $22.50. Neutral.

Target price is $22.50 Current Price is $21.05 Difference: $1.45
If FLT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.51, suggesting upside of 18.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

Following on from Goodman Group's March quarter presentation, Citi analysts have concluded medium-term growth continues to look attractive.

The public debate is merely how much is already priced-in, suggest the analysts.

Management did respond well to market expectations and upgraded FY24 EPS growth guidance to 13% from an earlier indicated 11%, but Citi analysts see room to beat this when the financials will be released in August.

The Buy rating and $32.50 target are maintained. 

Target price is $32.50 Current Price is $34.29 Difference: minus $1.79 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.50, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GMG as Outperform (1) -

Goodman Group upgraded FY24 earnings guidance at the 3Q trading report to 13% from 11%.

Macquarie highlights management has upgraded earnings guidance in the 3Q over the last 3-years and Goodman Group has beaten guidance over the last 6-years.

Management fees and better management income underpinned the upgrade with 3Q commencements soft, however, the analyst notes the size of the data centre developments leads to volatile and lumpy earnings recognition.

Macquarie lifts FY24 EPS by 1.2% which is an increase to 14% growth from 12% previously and FY25 EPS lifts by 0.7%.

Accordingly, the target price is raised to $36.37 from $34.84.

An Outperform rating is unchanged with the group expected to deliver 3-year forward compound average EPS growth of 12.5%.

Target price is $36.37 Current Price is $34.29 Difference: $2.08
If GMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.50, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GMG as Overweight (1) -

Goodman Group has upgraded its FY24 EPS guidance to 13% growth from 11% previously, which implies to Morgan Stanley 106.6cps though consensus is already at 107.1cps.

The broker raises its EPS forecast to 108.7cps, implying 15.3% growth on FY23 and raises its target to $36.65 from $35.30. The FY24 performance fee forecast is raised to circa $280m, which drove the bulk of Morgan Stanley's forecast EPS increase.

The company has increased its data centre pipeline to 3.9GW (from 3.6GW), headlined by an additional 300MW in advanced stages of power connection procurement, explain the analysts.

Management noted tenants are maintaining a "cautious approach given the macro uncertainty", and noted occupancy in the China partnership has declined to 93%, from 96% in the 1H.

The Overweight rating is maintained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $36.65 Current Price is $34.29 Difference: $2.36
If GMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.50, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GMG as Hold (3) -

Goodman Group's March Q update saw FY24 operating earnings guidance increased, with management focusing its comments on growing data centre demand as AI usage and cloud computing expands.

The thematic tailwinds undoubtedly continue for Goodman, Morgans suggests, with any forecast weakness in traditional logistics demand more than offset by expanded alternative use cases such as data centre and residential conversion.

But with the stock trading on a 28x forward PE, and delivering annual forecast earnings growth of 15%pa, the broker feels the stock is currently trading at fair value. Target rises to $33.50 from $29.00, Hold retained.

Target price is $33.50 Current Price is $34.29 Difference: minus $0.79 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.50, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GPT as Buy (1) -

Management at GPT has re-emphasised guidance for FY24 FFO of 32cps and DPS of 24cps, which is seen "constructively" by analysts at Citi.

The broker observes retail & logistics continue to produce resilient growing operational performances. While Office occupancy remains stable, the broker does acknowledge higher risk of lower occupancy in 2024 and 2025 is possible due to lease expiries during the periods.

Citi points out GPT shares are trading at a sizable discount to NTA (excluding value from funds management), offering a 5.9% dividend yield, while trading on a forward-looking PE ratio of circa 13x.

Buy. Target $4.90.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.25 Difference: $0.65
If GPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.95, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GPT as Equal-weight (3) -

At yesterday's AGM for GPT Group, management provided a 1Q trading update, affirming 2024 funds from operations (FFO) and DPS guidance. Morgan Stanley assesses all seems to be progressing as expected.

Retail occupancy costs are now at 16.2%, compared to 16.1% in 2023, which the broker attributes to sales growth being mildly behind contracted 4-5% rent increases.

The Equal-weight rating and $4.70 target are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.25 Difference: $0.45
If GPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.95, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HLI as Hold (3) -

Helia Group reported a -25% fall in 1Q24 premiums on the previous corresponding period, as weak demand for lenders' mortgage insurance and low claim levels continue to bite.

The company is also losing business from Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)), which is its largest client as the bank insures less of its high loan/value ratio loans.

Ord Minnett reduces the FY24 earnings forecast by -8%, in line with the mid point of FY24 revenue guidance of $360m to $440m.

Fair Value of $4 and Hold rating retained.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.79 Difference: $0.21
If HLI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IPH as Buy (1) -

IPH Ltd has made a non-binding $1.90 per share offer for Qantm Intellectual Property (QIP)), while giving shareholders in the target the opportunity to still receive 4.7c in franking dividends through the payout of a special dividend of 11c fully franked.

The broker notes the successful track record for making acquisitions at IPH, but also that market share in Australia would rise to 47% (from the current 32%) while the next competitor sits on 9% share.

Buy. Target $8.50.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $6.04 Difference: $2.46
If IPH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.35, suggesting upside of 41.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JBH as Buy (1) -

Citi analysts are "fine" with today's release of JB Hi-Fi's quarterly trading indications. It appears there has been an Easter-effect in the numbers.

The Australian sales growth in 3Q was -0.1% only, below expectations, but Citi believes the impact of Easter timing is to blame. But then The Good Guys sales growth of -0.8% is slightly better than forecasts. 

The broker notes management's comments regarding a "challenging and competitive retail market".

 Buy rating and $65.00 target price.

Target price is $65.00 Current Price is $59.97 Difference: $5.03
If JBH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $56.25, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JIN as Neutral (3) -

Jumbo Interactive's trading update at the Macquarie conference revealed a 38% rise in Lottery retailing year-to-date against the broker's forecast of 29% for FY24.

The Macquarie analyst, however, retains a cautious outlook for May/June and the forecasts are retained.

Management highlighted that participation rates are high in the lower jackpots with 50% of players in the $200m jackpot having played again.

Strategically, Managed Services remains a priority for Jumbo Interactive with three acquisitions of -$50m already in hand. Looking ahead, expansion will be disciplined and a special dividend in lieu of no corporate activity is seen as unlikely.

Neutral rating and $17.15 target remain unchanged.

Target price is $17.15 Current Price is $16.15 Difference: $1
If JIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.44, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JIN as Overweight (1) -

Brokers continue to report on presentations made at this year's Macquarie Australia Conference. This time Morgan Stanley notes management at Jumbo Interactive reiterated FY24 guidance and predicted 100% operating cash flow conversion of earnings (EBITDA).

Compared to the previous corresponding period, year-to-date total transaction value (TTV) and revenue are up by 22% and 38%, respectively, compared to the broker's forecasts for 16% and 32%.

Overweight rating retained. Target price is $20.80. Industry view: In line.

Target price is $20.80 Current Price is $16.15 Difference: $4.65
If JIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.44, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JIN as Lighten (4) -

Transaction volumes for Jumbo Interactive were slightly better than the Ord Minnett forecast for the 10-months ending April.

The broker lifts the FY24 volume forecast by 3% and EPS forecast also lifts by 3% to circa 35% growth on FY23 with an increase in lottery volumes.

Ord Minnett doesn't view the long term prospects for the company in an upbeat light as growth is tied to Lottery Corporation ((TLC)) ticket sales which rely on inflation and population growth.

At the current Fair Value of $13.10 the stock screens as overvalued, thus a Lighten rating.

Target price is $13.10 Current Price is $16.15 Difference: minus $3.05 (current price is over target).
If JIN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.44, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie - Cessation of coverage

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LTM as Buy (1) -

It is Citi's view Arcadium Lithium's Q1 EBITDA of $80m (adjusted $109m) is in line with market consensus, with average pricing of US$20,000/t better; volumes weaker and COGs in line.

Capex spending proved higher too, but should be lower in 2H as 20204 guidance is unchanged. Production is still expected to be 2H weighted.

The broker is already looking forward to September when a strategy day and site visits are scheduled. Buy rating retained on valuation, growth profile, and diversity.

There's a hint investors may need to remain patient.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $7.12 Difference: $2.88
If LTM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.93, suggesting upside of 40.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LTM as Outperform (1) -

Arcadium Lithium reported 1Q24 revenue of US$261m in line with consensus and reflecting a 1% increase, although the results were a miss on EBITDA and net profit, according to Macquarie.

Price realisation improved off the back of fixed prices and price floors to US$20.5kg for the company's lithium chemical products and came in between 70% to 85% above the China LCE 99.5% and the China lithium oxide prices.

One-off costs of -US$84m impacted on the EBITDA result of US$80m. Macquarie adjusts FY24 EPS estimate by -2% and less than -1% for FY25.

Overweight rating maintained and the target lowered -6% to $9.40 from $10.

Target price is $9.40 Current Price is $7.12 Difference: $2.28
If LTM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.93, suggesting upside of 40.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NEC as Buy (1) -

UBS highlights conditions remain tough for Nine Entertainment with the media company expecting 4Q metro FTA ad markets to decline at similar levels to 3Q, in line with the broker's current base case.

Better cost savings have allowed for small upgrades to forecasts. Buy rating retained as UBS sees scope for ad markets to improve, with Nine Entertainment relatively resilient compared with peers, and the strong balance sheet allowing for a continuation of the share buyback.

Valuation/price target $2.10, up from $2.04.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: $0.58
If NEC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.17, suggesting upside of 42.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NWS as Buy (1) -

In an initial response to today's market update, UBS saw News Corp publishing a weaker performance, though only slightly missing market consensus (-1%-2%).

The broker blames continued softness in macro conditions. Digital Real Estate, driven by REA Group ((REA)), was yet again the positive stand-out.

Dow Jones missed forecasts at the EBITDA line, due to reinvestment, and Book Publishing disappointed too, suggests the broker.

Target $50.40, Buy.

Target price is $50.40 Current Price is $38.58 Difference: $11.82
If NWS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.13, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORI as Buy (1) -

Upon first glance, UBS believes Orica released a strong 1H result earlier this morning with EBIT beating consensus by some 7% despite major 1H maintenance. The FY24 outlook remains positive, the broker adds.

Capex is expected to be "slightly above" the -$410-430m range, with additional -$25m expected for the acquisitions.

Buy. Target $21.30.

Target price is $21.30 Current Price is $18.30 Difference: $3
If ORI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.94, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PAR as Speculative Buy (1) -

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals is expecting FDA feedback from its recent discussions on the pathway for iPPS which could prove to be a positive in the short term for the company, notes Bell Potter.

The discusssions centred around the design of the phase 3 and confirmatory study for treatment of osteoarthritis with iPPS. The analyst notes that doses lower than the 2mg twice weekly for 6 weeks have proven ineffective in pain treatment. 

Patient results have shown up no toxity or safety concerns, inferring the FDA will approve the minimum dose.

Bell Potter adjusts earnings and the valuation for expected equity raisings from shareholders over FY25/FY26 to fund the two Phase 3 trials.

A Speculative Buy rating is retained and the target drops to 47c from $1.40.

Target price is $0.47 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.22
If PAR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 88% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PNV as Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett believes shares in PolyNovo look 'overvalued' in light of the slowing in sales growth momentum as has become apparent in the biotech's latest market update.

Some 74% of all sales stem from the USA, highlights the analyst. On current forecasts, five-year CAGR will be 25% p.a., but Ord Minnett (Morningstar) believes the market is expecting more, getting too excited in advance.

Fair value estimate is $1. Sell.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $2.29 Difference: minus $1.29 (current price is over target).
If PNV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.01, suggesting downside of -11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PPT as Buy (1) -

The decision to divest the Corporate Trust and Wealth management businesses at a price well ahead of expectations ($1.5-1.9bn) should have been well-received, counters Bell Potter. Instead the Perpetual shares were sold down post the announcement.

In a 'the market is wrong' research update today, the broker believes the deal will be transacted as a de-merger and therefore limit tax liability.

Buy. Target $27.60. No changes made to forecasts.

Target price is $27.60 Current Price is $22.32 Difference: $5.28
If PPT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.59, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PPT as Neutral (3) -

Citi finds it difficult to assess how much shareholders of Perpetual will receive on February 2025, when the deal completes for KKR to acquire the company's Wealth Management and Corporate Trust divisions.

There is around $770m of debt to be repaid, but other outgoings are uncertain at this stage, note the analysts. The jury is still out, suggests the broker, on whether management has achieved tax effectiveness for both the company and shareholders.

At face value, Citi feels the $2.1bn purchase price is reasonable.

Forecasts are unchanged, but the broker's target falls to $23.25 from $25.95 on the general uncertainty posed by the deal. A Neutral rating is maintained.

Target price is $23.25 Current Price is $22.32 Difference: $0.93
If PPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.59, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PPT as Overweight (1) -

Net proceeds post debt paydown will be returned to shareholders, notes Morgan Stanley, after Perpetual has opted to sell its Wealth and Trust divisions to US private equity firm KKR for cash gross proceeds of $2.175bn.

Management will pay down around $771m of debt.

While net proceeds are not clear as separation costs and tax on gains are unknown, prima facie the transaction appears to be a strong result for shareholders, suggest the analysts. The sale price is 45% above the broker's $1.5bn valuation.

Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating and $26.10 target. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $26.10 Current Price is $22.32 Difference: $3.78
If PPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.59, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PPT as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett assesses the proposed acquisition of Perpetual wealth management and corporate trust business by KKR as a reflection that Perpetual shares were undervalued.

The offer is above the broker's expectations and will provide a stepping stone to a capital return for shareholders, notes the analyst.

The deal is $2.2bn or $19.20 per share and Perpetual shareholders will retain ownership of Perpetual Asset Management, which Ord Minnett values at $15.40 per share.

Share price volatility is likely to reflect the more competitive nature of the asset management business, is the suggestion made.

Accumulate rating and a Fair Value of $26.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $22.32 Difference: $3.68
If PPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.59, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PPT as Neutral (3) -

UBS observes the strategic review has resulted in the Perpetual board supporting the sale of Corporate Trust and Wealth Management units to KKR for $2.175bn, leaving Perpetual Asset Management as an unlevered pure-play asset manager

The broker finds it impossible to assess what the precise value will be from this deal for shareholders, as plenty of details remain unknown.

UBS also notes Washington H Soul Pattinson's ((SOL)) previous $27 per share offer was rejected and its last disclosed 11.66% interest will carry weight in the Scheme shareholder vote which is targeted for January 2025.

The Neutral rating and target price of $25.00 are retained.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $22.32 Difference: $2.68
If PPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.59, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PSI as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley considers global insurance player Ardonagh Group has made an attractive cash offer to shareholders of PSC Insurance, valuing the company at  $6.19 per share.

Ardonagh intends to merge PSC Australia and New Zealand with its Envest Australian insurance distribution business.

The acquisition is subject to regulatory approval, and is expected to complete in September 2024. The broker is not expecting a 2H dividend.

Overweight rating, $5.85 target and In-Line industry view.

Target price is $5.85 Current Price is $5.74 Difference: $0.11
If PSI meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.77, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PXA as Accumulate (2) -

Pexa Group's Q3 update has not changed Ord Minnett's fair value estimate of $17.25. Management disappointed slightly by sticking with its FY24 guidance, which is slightly below the broker's forecast.

The broker has now pushed out its expectations into FY25, but still believes operational leverage should kick in as soon as volumes in the Australian housing market revert to long-term averages.

With the market seen as overly focused on the loss-making entrance into the UK, Ord Minnett views the stock as undervalued.

The Accumulate rating and $17.25 target are unchanged.

Target price is $17.25 Current Price is $14.23 Difference: $3.02
If PXA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.24, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates REA as Neutral (3) -

REA Group's quarterly updated has proven stronger-than-expected, Citi analysts report in an initial commentary. The analysts expect consensus forecasts to be upgraded by between 2% and 3%.

The broker also notes management has reiterated its cost guidance of mid to high-teens cost growth in FY24, with 3Q growing 18% yoy. This does imply an acceleration in costs in 4Q24 of circa 23% assuming 16% cost growth, the report stipulates.

Also, management now expects listing volumes to grow 5%-7% yoy in FY24, up from previous guidance of 3%-5%.

Neutral rating and $187 target. 

Target price is $187.00 Current Price is $185.00 Difference: $2
If REA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $175.56, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates REA as Neutral (3) -

UBS finds REA Group's quarterly update has yet again beaten the street, and volumes in particular have started Q4 in a strong fashion.

On the back of the latter, management has now upgraded volume and yield forecasts for FY24 with the release of Q3 trading update earlier this morning.

Neutral. Target $184.40.

Target price is $184.40 Current Price is $185.00 Difference: minus $0.6 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $175.56, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SDR as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights meaningful contributions are required from Channels Plus (C+) and Dynamic Revenue Plus (DR+) if SiteMinder is to achieve targeted 30% revenue growth. The latter implies to the analysts group revenue of around $1bn in FY30.

The broker anticipates more of the company's incremental revenue will need to be driven by growth in the SiteMinder system, or gross booking value (GBV), as opposed to subscriptions x average revenue per user (ARPU).

As a result, Morgan Stanley expects GBV and effective take rate to come much more sharply into investor focus.

Overweight retained. The broker's target rises to $6.80 from $6.45 to reflect minor revisions from higher growth and higher reinvestment. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $5.63 Difference: $1.17
If SDR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.52, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SIQ as Buy (1) -

Smartgroup Corp provided a trading update for the 1Q24 at the AGM.

Bell Potter's key takeaways include the ongoing investment in improving efficiency for the customer via digitalisation and rationalisation of the technology stack.

The company confirmed capital expenditure guidance of -$11m-$13m in the 2Q24, including expanding the fleet capabilities.

1Q new order settlements grew 7% and leasing yields were flat over the 2H23; average monthly revenue expanded 5% and EBITDA lifted 3% compared to the 2H23.

Earning forecasts are adjusted by 0.8% for FY24 and 0.2% for FY25, while Bell Potter notes the unwinding of the orderbook represents a potential uplift to EBITDA.

Unchanged Buy rating and $11 target.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $8.74 Difference: $2.26
If SIQ meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.11, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SIQ as Buy (1) -

Citi assesses margins will likely bottom in FY24 with leverage to come through in FY25, after reviewing numbers and commentary from yesterday's AGM for Smartgroup Corp.

Opex is growing in line with revenue at 5%, yet earnings (EBITDA) grew by 3% as increased novated lease settlements and greater product attachment drove higher product costs, explain the analysts.

While operating leverage is likely to take longer to materialise than the broker initially thought, demand for novated leasing is still expected to grow.

The Buy rating is unchanged. The broker's target falls to $10.45 from $11.55 partly due to lowering 1H earnings forecasts by -9%, reflecting lower novated volume growth expectations, and after allowing for an additional cost for the SA government contract.

Target price is $10.45 Current Price is $8.74 Difference: $1.71
If SIQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.11, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SIQ as Equal-weight (3) -

First quarter trading for Smartgroup Corp is tracking mostly in line with consensus expectations for 2024, according to Morgan Stanley, with revenue a slight beat and costs a miss.

Revenue growth was mostly driven by volumes, explains the broker, with average monthly new lease orders up by 7%, compared to the 2H of FY23.

Average monthly revenue has risen by 5% when compared to the 1H of FY23, and implies to the broker $142m for the 1H of FY24, which aligns with the consensus estimate.

Electric vehicle take-up was solid (up by 42%) in Morgan Stanley's view, but stabilising. In the 2H of FY23 a rise of 41% occurred.

Equal-weight rating. Target $9.50. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $8.74 Difference: $0.76
If SIQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.11, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SIQ as Hold (3) -

Smartgroup Corp's March Q showed continuing solid trends for lease demand, Morgans notes, up 7% on the prior half. EV’s accounted for 42% of orders, up from 41% last half.

While the incremental uplift in EV orders is slowing, it also implies solid non-EV vehicle order growth, the broker points out. Morgans expects improvement from the June Q as incremental cost growth slows and the likelihood of further unwind of the order book flows through.

Morgans sees Smartgroup's investment case fairly balanced at the current valuation. Target slips to $9.70 from $9.80, Hold retained.

Target price is $9.70 Current Price is $8.74 Difference: $0.96
If SIQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.11, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SIQ as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett picked up Smartgroup Corp quarterly update revealed 42% of all new car orders in Q1 are now comprising EVs.

Settlement volumes during the quarter were up circa 7% from a year ago, resulting in a 5% sequential increase in monthly revenues, the analyst highlights.

Costs increased too but the net performance was still 3% ahead of the broker's forecast. Buy rating retained. Target price has lost -10c to $10.50.

Forecasts have been lifted.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $8.74 Difference: $1.76
If SIQ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.11, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUL as Buy (1) -

Citi leaves its earnings estimates unchanged for Super Retail following a trading update by management up until the end of April.

Sales are matching the consensus forecast and came in about -1% below the broker's estimate. The group gross margin is in line with the previous corresponding period, and aligns with expectations held by the broker and consensus.

Citi has already allowed for the company's new enterprise agreement in its forecasts. The agreement implies costs for retail team member will rise by around 3% in FY25.

The Buy rating and $19 target are unchanged.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $13.77 Difference: $5.23
If SUL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.14, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUL as Underweight (5) -

As part of Super Retail's trading update, management noted consumers are becoming increasingly focused on value, with the number of items per sale falling.

So far in 2024, like-for-like sales were down by -1%, which aligns with the consensus expectation for the 2H, notes the broker, while sales  in FY24-to-date are up by 2%, also broadly in line with consensus.

Twenty stores have been added and four closed this year, and management intends to open an additional seven stores prior to year-end.

Underweight. The target is $14.09. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $14.09 Current Price is $13.77 Difference: $0.32
If SUL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.14, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SVW as Lighten (4) -

Boral ((BLD)) will soon be integrated into Seven Group and Ord Minnett has increased its far value assessment to $32 from a previous $30.50.

Lighten rating retained on what appear to have been minuscule amendments to forecasts.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $39.41 Difference: minus $7.41 (current price is over target).
If SVW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $40.60, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SYR as Buy (1) -

UBS has used a general sector update on graphite to lower its price forecasts, which has negative impact on forecasts and valuations for companies levered to the theme.

The latest update on clean vehicle provisions for the IRA in the US seem to have been the catalyst. UBS doesn't see market conditions improving imminently, but is willing to stick with its Buy ratings.

For Syrah Resources, the impact on the price target is a decline to 80c from $1.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.33
If SYR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.81, suggesting upside of 72.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TCL as Buy (1) -

Post Transurban Group's investor day, UBS analysts report the demand outlook remains strong, as yet again confirmed by company management, with margin expansion to support further growth.

Margin expansion should follow on the back of lower opex (costs). The West Gate Tunnel project remains on track for late 2025 completion.

Target $14.80. Buy.

Target price is $14.80 Current Price is $12.93 Difference: $1.87
If TCL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.62, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLG as Buy (1) -

UBS has used a general sector update on graphite to lower its price forecasts, which has negative impact on forecasts and valuations for companies levered to the theme.

The latest update on clean vehicle provisions for the IRA in the US seem to have been the catalyst. UBS doesn't see market conditions improving imminently, but is willing to stick with its Buy ratings.

For Talga Group, the impact on the price target is a decline to $1.70 from $2.20.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: $0.99
If TLG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 139% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources