Australian Broker Call

Citi rates AMP as Buy (1) -

Ahead of a panel discussion at Citi's Australia/NZ conference on regional and non-bank lenders, the broker highlights the talking point is likely to be around innovation on the liability side of the balance sheet.

Since 2020, mortgage profitability has eroded, and with most lenders being price takers, this isn’t likely to reverse soon, the broker notes. As a result, innovation is shifting to the funding side, where there may be a chance to reposition for better profitability.

In late 2023, Pepper Money accelerated its use of whole loan sales as a funding tool. This marked a more disciplined capital recycling strategy, proving prudent as asset spreads tightened, and is being contemplated by Bank of Queensland.

Other liability-side innovations to manage costs are Judo Capital's expansion into savings deposits, AMP's digital bank launch, Bendigo & Adelaide Bank and Bank of Queensland's focus on digital deposits.

Buy. Target unchanged at $2.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.68 Difference: $0.325
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BEN as Sell (5) -

Ahead of a panel discussion at Citi's Australia/NZ conference on regional and non-bank lenders, the broker highlights the talking point is likely to be around innovation on the liability side of the balance sheet.

Since 2020, mortgage profitability has eroded, and with most lenders being price takers, this isn’t likely to reverse soon, the broker notes. As a result, innovation is shifting to the funding side, where there may be a chance to reposition for better profitability.

In late 2023, Pepper Money accelerated its use of whole loan sales as a funding tool. This marked a more disciplined capital recycling strategy, proving prudent as asset spreads tightened, and is being contemplated by Bank of Queensland.

Other liability-side innovations to manage costs are Judo Capital's expansion into savings deposits, AMP's digital bank launch, Bendigo & Adelaide Bank and Bank of Queensland's focus on digital deposits.

Sell. Target unchanged at $11.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $13.06 Difference: minus $2.06 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.35, suggesting downside of -13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BOQ as Neutral (3) -

Ahead of a panel discussion at Citi's Australia/NZ conference on regional and non-bank lenders, the broker highlights the talking point is likely to be around innovation on the liability side of the balance sheet.

Since 2020, mortgage profitability has eroded, and with most lenders being price takers, this isn’t likely to reverse soon, the broker notes. As a result, innovation is shifting to the funding side, where there may be a chance to reposition for better profitability.

In late 2023, Pepper Money accelerated its use of whole loan sales as a funding tool. This marked a more disciplined capital recycling strategy, proving prudent as asset spreads tightened, and is being contemplated by Bank of Queensland.

Other liability-side innovations to manage costs are Judo Capital's expansion into savings deposits, AMP's digital bank launch, Bendigo & Adelaide Bank and Bank of Queensland's focus on digital deposits.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $6.60.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $7.22 Difference: minus $0.62 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.38, suggesting downside of -11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CNU as Outperform (1) -

The New Zealand Government will assess the feasibility of selling its debt and equity holdings in Chorus, observes Macquarie.

The National Infrastructure Funding and Financing (NIFFCo) agency will examine a potential sale to private investors in early 2026, rather than holding the securities to maturity.

The government’s move is aimed at freeing capital for other national projects, notes the broker, following completion of the Ultra-Fast Broadband initiative in 2022.

Macquarie highlights Chorus expects no material impact on the terms, maturity profile, or refinancing approach of its debt, and makes no changes to its earnings forecasts.

Outperform rating and an unchanged NZ$9.83 target price.

Current Price is $8.16. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates COG as Buy (1) -

COG Financial Services has announced the acquisition of a non-controlling stake in its subsidiary Fleet Network for $23.9m.

Bell Potter notes the transaction is being funded with a $20m placement at $2 per share and a valuation price around 6x FY25 earnings (EBITDA). This aligns with previous acquisitions in salary packaging and novated leasing sector.

The analyst is becoming more cautious on the stock, expecting the company to benefit from consolidation. If the forward earnings (EBITDA) multiple moves above 11x, Bell Potter believes the market is pricing in further asset sales or M&A.

Maintain Buy rating with an upgraded target price to $2.70 from $2.25.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.40 Difference: $0.3
If COG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.41, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Sell (5) -

UBS retains a Sell rating on Evolution Mining with a higher target price of $8.10 from $7.90.

The broker also lifts its copper price estimates by 6% to US$5.20/lb in 2026 and by 13% to US$5.95/lb in 2027, with a 16% rise in 2028 to US$5.80/lb due to supply side disruption.

There is a "scarcity premium" in ASX copper stocks like Sandfire Resources ((SFR)), with copper representing around 70% of the miner's FY26 forecast revenue and circa 21% of Evolution Mining.

The analyst lifts earnings (EBITDA) forecasts slightly for Evolution by 1% in 2026 and 3% in 2027.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $10.93 Difference: minus $3.03 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.39, suggesting downside of -25.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FBU as Buy (1) -

In an initial assessment, Citi feels today's first quarter update by Fletcher Building on key product sales volumes reflects mixed trading conditions. Some improvement is noted across key segments but ongoing weakness in residential and aggregates remains.

The update is broadly in line with expectations, according to the broker, supported by flat 1H26 sales and a NZ$26m benefit from one-off reversals. Wallboards, cement, and ready-mix volumes improved modestly, highlights the analyst, while residential sales fell -16%.

Management is aiming for an additional -NZ$100m cost reduction, half targeted for 2H26, mainly through back-office efficiencies.

Buy rating. NZ$3.50 target.

Current Price is $2.90. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $3.13, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GQG as Outperform (1) -

GQG Partners’ September 2025 update was weaker than Macquarie’s expectations, with net outflow of -US$1.7bn in the September month below both Macquarie’s -US$1.5bn estimate and consensus at -US$0.4bn.

All strategies experienced net outflows, observes the broker, with the US Equity and Emerging Markets strategies seeing the largest withdrawals. Funds under management (FUM) of US$167.2bn was -3% below Macquarie's forecast and -2.4% below consensus.

The analyst notes weaker fund performance relative to benchmarks across all flagship funds and expects softer inflows through FY25.

Macquarie cuts its earnings forecasts moderately to reflect lower FUM and tempered flow assumptions.

Target falls to $2.50 from $2.55. Outperform rating kept, with the broker noting a resilient FUM base given fund positioning, coupled with an attractive yield.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.60 Difference: $0.905
If GQG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.50, suggesting upside of 60.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GQG as Buy (1) -

GQG Partners has reported September net outflows of -US$1.7bn (-$2.6bn), reducing funds under management (FUM) by -1% to US$167.2bn, Ord Minnett notes.

Emerging Markets and US strategies were the most affected, explains the broker, each with -US$600m of withdrawals, while Global and International funds saw smaller outflows.

September-quarter outflows of -US$4.9bn, exceeded both Ord Minnett and market run-rate expectations for the second half. It's noted the company's defensive positioning contributed to -4 percentage points of relative underperformance despite positive absolute returns.

Ord Minnett now forecasts monthly outflows of around -US$400m in the December quarter. Buy rating and a $2.80 target price retained.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $1.60 Difference: $1.205
If GQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.50, suggesting upside of 60.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes reports of China expanding export controls on heavy rare earths to include most medium and heavy rare earths, and certain production and processing equipments.

This is a positive for Iluka Resources as its Eneabba refinery will produce a high mix of heavy rare earths (Dysprosium and Terbium), the broker highlights.

The company has sourced nearly all refinery equipment ex-China, so the 2027 project timeline remains unchanged.

The broker reckons Lynas Rare Earths may also benefit despite its NdPr focus, as it is well placed to build a US magnet manufacturing presence via its MoU with Noveon Magnetics.

The company, though, still needs to secure heavy rare earths supply, so the broker will monitor further updates on its MoU with Menteri Besar Inc.

Overweight for Iluka Resources. Target unchanged at $8.60. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $7.51 Difference: $1.09
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.39, suggesting downside of -17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JDO as Buy (1) -

Ahead of a panel discussion at Citi's Australia/NZ conference on regional and non-bank lenders, the broker highlights the talking point is likely to be around innovation on the liability side of the balance sheet.

Since 2020, mortgage profitability has eroded, and with most lenders being price takers, this isn’t likely to reverse soon, the broker notes. As a result, innovation is shifting to the funding side, where there may be a chance to reposition for better profitability.

In late 2023, Pepper Money accelerated its use of whole loan sales as a funding tool. This marked a more disciplined capital recycling strategy, proving prudent as asset spreads tightened, and is being contemplated by Bank of Queensland.

Other liability-side innovations to manage costs are Judo Capital's expansion into savings deposits, AMP's digital bank launch, Bendigo & Adelaide Bank and Bank of Queensland's focus on digital deposits.

Buy. Target unchanged at $2.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.71 Difference: $0.295
If JDO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.08, suggesting upside of 25.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates L1G as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter observes L1 Group announced September FUM covering only the Platinum funds, which declined -0.5% or -$36m to $7,561m from the end of August.

Pro-forma combined FUM, including L1 Capital's FUM of $9.4bn (up from $8.4bn in June) rose to $16.95bn at the end of September from $16.4bn at the end of June.

L1 Group is the new name for the merged entities Platinum Asset Management and L1 Capital, and the merger took effect on Oct 1.

Over the quarter, L1 Capital obtained $1bn in FUM via flows and investment returns. In contrast, Platinum lost around -$0.3bn, made up of outflows of -$1.1bn, offset by investment returns of $0.8bn.

Bell Potter lifts its net profit after tax forecasts by 10.8% for FY26 and 6.2% for FY27 due to better FUM.

Target price rises to 90c from 70c. No change to Hold rating.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.97 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If L1G meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LYC as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes reports of China expanding export controls on heavy rare earths to include most medium and heavy rare earths, and certain production and processing equipments.

This is a positive for Iluka Resources as its Eneabba refinery will produce a high mix of heavy rare earths (Dysprosium and Terbium), the broker highlights.

The broker reckons Lynas Rare Earths may also benefit despite its NdPr focus, as it is well placed to build a US magnet manufacturing presence via its MoU with Noveon Magnetics.

The company, though, still needs to secure heavy rare earths supply, so the broker will monitor further updates on its MoU with Menteri Besar Inc.

Equal-weight retained for Lynas Rare Earths. Target unchanged at $19.45. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $19.45 Current Price is $19.81 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.32, suggesting downside of -34.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LYC as Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett explains Lynas Rare Earths’ share price surged after announcing a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with US magnet maker Noveon Magnetics.

Lynas and Noveon aim to build a scalable US supply chain for rare earth magnets though the broker notes no material details were disclosed.

The analysts view the share price rally as speculative, driven by enthusiasm across the rare earth sector rather than fundamentals.

Lynas currently produces around 125tpa of dysprosium and terbium, notes the broker. Output may not be expanded until 2028 as new heavy rare earth separation lines are developed.

Ord Minnett cautions the Lynas valuation exceeds fundamentals at the broker's $10 target and retains a Sell rating.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $19.81 Difference: minus $9.81 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.32, suggesting downside of -34.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MVP as Speculative Buy (1) -

Medical Developments International announced 1Q26 trading update with revenue lifting around 2.1% to $10.9m, which met Bell Potter's expectations.

The growth was generated from the Penthrox business, with the Respiratory business noted as seasonally weak over the period.

Management confirmed FY26 guidance for underlying earnings (EBIT), and cash on hand stood at around $16.1m. Positively, the analyst point to an improvement in operating cash flow of circa -$0.8m versus around -$2.7m in the previous period.

Demand for Penthrox from hospitals in Australia rose 26% on the previous year, with European in-market demand up around 12%.

No change to Speculative Buy rating. Target rises to 85c from 80c due to a lower cost of capital post the RBA interest rate cuts.

Bell Potter retains its EPS forecasts.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.67 Difference: $0.18
If MVP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWL as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Following a deeper analysis of Netwealth Group's 1Q26 net flow which was 2% above its forecast, Citi has upgraded FY26 net flow estimate to $16bn from $15.8bn.

The broker assumes 2H flow will be same as 1H, with 1H flow expected to slow from the very strong start in 1Q.  FY26 revenue margin was also lifted to account for higher proportion of cash balance but FY27-28 margin trimmed on admin-fee tiering.

FY26-27 EBITDA increased by 2% while FY28 trimmed by -1% on higher operating expenses.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target cut to $35.00 from $35.50 on lower multiple.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $32.51 Difference: $2.49
If NWL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.50, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OCA as Outperform (1) -

Management at Oceania Healthcare has outlined a pragmatic near-term strategy at its investor day, according to Macquarie, focused on improving sales, reducing costs, and adding service offerings.

The approach prioritises stability over growth, with the company trading at around 0.5x book value, highlights the analyst.

Strong applications from potential residents in 1H26, up 58% year-on-year, are expected to drive higher settlements in 2H26, while annualised cost savings of NZ$20m sit at the top end of guidance.

Development will remain modest at 100-150 units per year through FY31, notes Macquarie, supported by divestments and a planned reduction in gearing to 30-35%.

The broker cuts its FY26 earnings forecast by -2.8% and raises FY27 by 1.8%, expecting positive free cash flow (FCF) by FY27.

Outperform. Target price NZ99c.

Current Price is $0.57. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PME as Upgrade to Hold from Trim (3) -

Morgans upgrades Pro Medicus to Hold from Trim with a lift in the target price to $290 from $285.

Post FY25 result failed to establish any new updates for the company to justify an upgrade in the stock then. Heightened volatility in growth-related companies with high valuations has seen momentum ebb for the likes of Pro Medicus.

Given the stock's pullback, the analyst believes there is a more favourable risk-reward profile for one of the highest quality companies on the ASX.

Positively, Pro Medicus announced an Authority to Operate from the US Department of Veterans Affairs for its Visage 7 CloudPACS platform, which will permit the company to transition its current on-premise implementation to the cloud.

The $10m enterprise contract with the University of Heidelberg is the first ex-US contract since 2020. The analyst highlights Europe remains a large market with significant opportunities.

Target price is $290.00 Current Price is $305.55 Difference: minus $15.55 (current price is over target).
If PME meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $322.77, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PPM as Buy (1) -

Ahead of a panel discussion at Citi's Australia/NZ conference on regional and non-bank lenders, the broker highlights the talking point is likely to be around innovation on the liability side of the balance sheet.

Since 2020, mortgage profitability has eroded, and with most lenders being price takers, this isn’t likely to reverse soon, the broker notes. As a result, innovation is shifting to the funding side, where there may be a chance to reposition for better profitability.

In late 2023, Pepper Money accelerated its use of whole loan sales as a funding tool. This marked a more disciplined capital recycling strategy, proving prudent as asset spreads tightened, and is being contemplated by Bank of Queensland.

Other liability-side innovations to manage costs are Judo Capital's expansion into savings deposits, AMP's digital bank launch, Bendigo & Adelaide Bank and Bank of Queensland's focus on digital deposits.

Buy. Target unchanged at $2.40.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: $0.4
If PPM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates QPM as Speculative Buy (1) -

QPM Energy has secured a seven-year $114m lease agreement with Macquarie Group ((MQG)) to fund gas turbines for its 112MW Isaac Power Station, Bell Potter notes.

The facility is interest only during construction, with a $70m bullet due at maturity and lower pricing than feasibility assumptions, highlights the analyst.

The lease is a key step toward funding the $215m project, suggests the broker, which is expected to generate $71m in annual revenue and a $49m margin.

Bell Potter expects commissioning in mid-2027 and retains a Speculative Buy rating with a 9c target price.

Target price is $0.09 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.047
If QPM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 109% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QUB as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley transferred coverage of Qube Holdings to Samantha Edie.

The broker forecasts FY26 adjusted-EPS growth of 12% supported by solid tailwinds across containers, autos, agri, and energy, which is expected to more than offset short-term softness in Ports & Bulk.

Patrick’s earnings are seen up 4% in FY26 (after flat FY25) on a conservative assumption. The broker highlights operational momentum remains positive with major port container volumes up 5% FY26 to-date and vehicle imports up 5% y/y in 1Q26.

The company's long-term incentives focus on adjusted-EPS and and relative total shareholder return, which could help close the gap between fundamentals and valuation, in the broker's view.

Rating upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight following share price weakness since the FY25 result. Target rises to $4.50 from $4.40.

Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $0.33
If QUB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.63, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RRL as Sell (5) -

Citi lifted the target price on Regis Resources to $5.00 from $4.80.

Sell rating remains.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $5.69 Difference: minus $0.69 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.21, suggesting downside of -14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SFR as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

UBS downgrades Sandfire Resources to Sell from Neutral and lifts the target price to $14.50 from $13.10. The higher target reflects current high valuation ascribed to the stock, which equates to multiples of larger, higher quality peers such as Freeport McMoRan.

The broker also lifts its copper price estimates by 6% to US$5.20/lb in 2026 and by 13% to US$5.95/lb in 2027, with a 16% rise in 2028 to US$5.80/lb due to supply side disruption.

There is a "scarcity premium" in ASX copper stocks like Sandfire, with copper representing around 70% of the miner's FY26 forecast revenue and circa 21% of Evolution Mining ((EVN)).

The analyst raises Sandfire's earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by 10% for 2026 and 21% for 2027.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $16.13 Difference: minus $1.63 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.92, suggesting downside of -17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SFX as Hold (3) -

Sheffield Resources reported September quarter production of 249kt, slightly ahead of Ord Minnett’s 227kt estimate, though sales of 217kt fell well short of expectations due to port delays.

The broker notes working capital for the Thunderbird Mineral Sands Project remains under strain in a weak mineral sands market, with inventory building as expansion to 16mtpa outpaces demand.

Ord Minnett believes the project’s debt restructure will hinge on the improved cash flow potential from the expansion. The expansion is expected to lower C1 operating costs by around -$80/t and add $15-20m in annual free cash flow (FCF) if sales improve.

Ord Minnett lowers its target price to 13c from 20c in line with net asset value (NAV) and maintains a Hold rating.

Target price is $0.13 Current Price is $0.16 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If SFX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources