Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates 29M as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley generally lowers its price targets for stocks in its Resources sector coverage after cutting 2022 forecasts for most key commodities. This comes as China lockdowns impact and global growth is considered an ongoing concern.

However, there is an average upside of 21% to those lowered price targets and the broker suggests concerns have been more than factored into current share prices.

Morgan Stanley lowers its target price for 29metals to $2.75 from $3.20 due to lower gold, copper and lead price forecasts. The Equal-weight rating is retained. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: $0.69
If 29M meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.03, suggesting upside of 53.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ADH as Buy (1) -

UBS now incorporates macro pressures into its forecasts for Adairs. Estimates for FY23-25 revenue are cut by -7-11%. The broker assumes online sales slow across Adairs and Mocka, with a large unwinding of the Adairs gross margin uplift experienced across FY19-21.

Acknowledging limited investor appetite for retail stocks the broker looks through the macro challenges and assesses Adairs offers value at 6x FY23 PE estimates. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $3.70 from $5.20.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $1.83 Difference: $1.87
If ADH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 102% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.50, suggesting upside of 95.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AFG as Outperform (1) -

Australian Finance Group's less mature $4bn mortgage book, relative to other nonbanking financial institutions, should benefit in the current rate hiking environment according to Macquarie. 

With the company's securitisation book achieving a 30% compound annual growth rate between the first half of FY17 and FY21, Macquarie is anticipating the company can deliver a further 15% annual book growth in FY23 and FY24.

The broker updates its earnings per share forecasts -1, -13% and -15% through to FY24, accounting for anticipated book growth and net interest margin movement.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.82 from $2.94.

Target price is $1.82 Current Price is $1.55 Difference: $0.27
If AFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.51, suggesting upside of 68.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AKE as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley generally lowers its price targets for stocks in its Resources sector coverage after cutting 2022 forecasts for most key commodities. This comes as China lockdowns impact and global growth is considered an ongoing concern.

However, there is an average upside of 21% to those lowered price targets and the broker suggests concerns have been more than factored into current share prices.

Morgan Stanley lifts its target price for Allkem to $12.90 from $11.60 after updating its financial model for an operational update, including updated pricing at Olaroz and updated production guidance at Mt Cattlin. Equal-weight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $12.90 Current Price is $10.00 Difference: $2.9
If AKE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALD as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley estimates a $200-$300m buyback is possible by early 2023 for Ampol though refining margins need to remain elevated. It's estimated there will be $850m of debt capacity to fund an off-market buyback by the end of 2022.

The Overweight rating and $39 target price are retained. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $34.34 Difference: $4.66
If ALD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.95, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AWC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley generally lowers its price targets for stocks in its Resources sector coverage after cutting 2022 forecasts for most key commodities. This comes as China lockdowns impact and global growth is considered an ongoing concern.

However, there is an average upside of 21% to those lowered price targets and the broker suggests concerns have been more than factored into current share prices.

Morgan Stanley retains its Overweight rating for Alumina Ltd and likes the attractive 2022 dividend yield. The target price falls to $1.85 from $2.20 on negative impacts from updates to the broker's alumina and aluminium price forecasts for 2022. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: $0.33
If AWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.00, suggesting upside of 34.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AX1 as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS believes a more bearish view of the consumer discretionary sector is required. Higher interest rates, food inflation, soaring fuel and energy costs are all combining along with more sober house prices. The broker reduces earnings estimates for the sector in FY23 by -23% on average.

UBS revises estimates to reflect the deteriorating environment. Gross margins have been reduced on the expectation of the mix shift back to lower-margin third-party brands and increased discounting. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy and the target is lowered to $1.25 from $2.50.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.22 Difference: $0.03
If AX1 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.75, suggesting upside of 47.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Buy (1) -

Queensland's government has increased coal royalties, adding an extra three tiers. Coal royalty payments to Queensland are forecast to increase to $2bn in FY23 from $1.35bn.

Consequently, Citi reduces BHP Group's coal division EBITDA by -7.1% in FY23 with group EBITDA decreasing -1%.

In addition, with the closure of Mount Arthur assumed for 2030, the broker reduces the DCF valuations for NSW energy coal. 

While the valuation, in aggregate, has decreased to $43.80 a share from $44.20 a share the target is unchanged at $50 and a Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $41.03 Difference: $8.97
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $46.05, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

BHP Group looks to pay higher royalties on its QCoal operations, with the Queensland Government introducing new progressive royalty rates from July. Macquarie anticipates the company will pay an average 14% rate over the next five years, peaking at less than 20% in FY23.

The broker notes current elevated coking coal prices will drive higher royalty payments in the near term. With the increase in royalty payments set to impact earnings, Macquarie has downgraded its forecasts -4% in FY23, up to -3% through to FY25, and by less than -3% in the following years.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $51.00 from $57.00.

Target price is $51.00 Current Price is $41.03 Difference: $9.97
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $46.05, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley generally lowers its price targets for stocks in its Resources sector coverage after cutting 2022 forecasts for most key commodities. This comes as China lockdowns impact and global growth is considered an ongoing concern.

However, there is an average upside of 21% to those lowered price targets and the broker suggests concerns have been more than factored into current share prices.

Morgan Stanley retains its Equal-weight rating for BHP Group and prefers the Overweight-rated Rio Tinto in the iron ore space for its higher iron ore grades grades and aluminium exposure.

The target price falls to $40.05 from $46.20 after a -13%  cut to the broker's 2022 forecast iron ore price and other reduced commodity price forecasts. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $40.05 Current Price is $41.03 Difference: minus $0.98 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $46.05, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BPT as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

A recent decline in Beach Energy's share price, down -16% over the last fortnight, has seen Macquarie lift its rating on the company given an improved risk-reward outlook. Further, the broker has lifted its base case oil price deck, further supporting Beach Energy's valuation. 

Looking ahead, Macquarie highlights the company is investing in a sizable growth program to lift production. The company is targeting 28m barrels equivalent with its investment program, which the broker finds achievable. 

The rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform and the target price increases to $1.65 from $1.51.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.67 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.83, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CCX as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS believes a more bearish view of the consumer discretionary sector is required. Higher interest rates, food inflation, soaring fuel and energy costs are all combining along with more sober house prices. The broker reduces earnings estimates for the sector in FY23 by -23% on average.

UBS revises estimates to reflect the deteriorating environment, reducing sales forecast across the Americas, EMEA and Australasia. The broker assumes that, while sales reduce, there is only modest margin compression. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy and the target lowered to $2.00 from $4.50.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.79 Difference: $0.21
If CCX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.94, suggesting upside of 123.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CRN as Outperform (1) -

Coronado Global Resources looks to pay higher royalties on its Curragh coal operations, with the Queensland Government introducing new progressive royalty rates from July. Given elevated coking coal prices, Macquarie anticipates the company's royalty payments will increase around 20% in the near-term. 

With the increase in royalty payments set to impact earnings, Macquarie has downgraded its forecasts -5% in 2022, -7% for 2023 and 2024, and around -3% in the following years.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.80 from $3.20.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $1.65 Difference: $1.15
If CRN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.77, suggesting upside of 69.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CRN as Add (1) -

As a result of the imposition of new QLD royalties, Morgans estimates the effective royalty rate at Coronado Global Resources' Curragh mine rises to 21% from 13% in 2022, and to 14% from 11% in 2023.

After allowing for the royalty change, lower volumes and higher price and cost forecasts, the broker lowers its target to $2.50 from $2.97. Despite this, there's still considered to be compelling capital and dividend upside risk and the Add rating is maintained.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.65 Difference: $0.85
If CRN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.77, suggesting upside of 69.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CWY as Buy (1) -

Cleanaway Waste Management has made another downgrade to earnings guidance.. As a result of rainfall in south-east Queensland the company expects to incur -$30-40m in costs to remediate its New Chum landfill.

This means the site will also be closed for much of FY23, which means a further -$10m impact on operating earnings. Ord Minnett considers this a minor negative and the company can capitalise on structural tailwinds. Buy rating and $3.20 target maintained.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: $0.58
If CWY meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.10, suggesting upside of 21.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DRR as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley generally lowers its price targets for stocks in its Resources sector coverage after cutting 2022 forecasts for most key commodities. This comes as China lockdowns impact and global growth is considered an ongoing concern.

However, there is an average upside of 21% to those lowered price targets and the broker suggests concerns have been more than factored into current share prices.

Morgan Stanley maintains its Overweight rating and keeps its $5.25 target for Deterra Royalties unchanged after lower FY22-23 iron ore price forecasts offset higher MAC production forecasts. A higher 2024 iron ore price forecast lifts EPS estimates. Industry view: In-Line.

MAC refers to the royalty agreement with BHP Group ((BHP)) for Mining area C.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $4.27 Difference: $0.98
If DRR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.09, suggesting upside of 19.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley generally lowers its price targets for stocks in its Resources sector coverage after cutting 2022 forecasts for most key commodities. This comes as China lockdowns impact and global growth is considered an ongoing concern.

However, there is an average upside of 21% to those lowered price targets and the broker suggests concerns have been more than factored into current share prices.

Morgan Stanley lowers its target for Evolution Mining to $4.60 from $4.90 to reflect lower gold price forecasts for FY22, though EPS estimates for FY23-24 rise due to a lower forecast for the Australian dollar. Equal-weight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.44 Difference: $1.16
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting upside of 25.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates FBU as Outperform (1) -

Fletcher Building's investor day leaves Credit Suisse looking under the cushions for margins.

The broker notes that consensus estimates already sit at mid-cycle margins and any improvement from here only returns the company to its former FY23 target. The broker says this suggests Fletcher building may miss its FY29-FY23 plan, unless it is being conservative. 

Put more simply, the company estimates volumes this half are 10% to 15% higher, but that the margins are only back at the mid-cycle margin of 9% to 10%. 

Credit Suisse says despite this, the figures suggest strong value and momentum remains and visibility is good. Target price is cut to $7.50 from $9.30 despite EPS and DPS forecasts being fairly stable. Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $4.54 Difference: $2.96
If FBU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.50, suggesting upside of 63.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley generally lowers its price targets for stocks in its Resources sector coverage after cutting 2022 forecasts for most key commodities. This comes as China lockdowns impact and global growth is considered an ongoing concern.

However, there is an average upside of 21% to those lowered price targets and the broker suggests concerns have been more than factored into current share prices.

Morgan Stanley retains its Underweight rating for Fortescue Metals due to a lack of valuation support and a risk of rising Fortescue Future Industries (FFI) spend.

The target price falls to $14.20 from $15.95 after a -13% cut to the broker's forecast 2022 iron ore price. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $14.20 Current Price is $17.62 Difference: minus $3.42 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.97, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GUD as Outperform (1) -

G.U.D. Holdings has updated its full year earnings guidance to $147m, a downgrade from previous guidance of $155-160m. Macquarie notes timing of new vehicle supply is attributed to the guidance downgrade, anticipating impacts will continue through July.

Macquarie downgrades its earnings per share forecasts -7% and -14% for FY22 and FY23 accordingly. 

Looking ahead, growth prospects for the company's AutoPacific Group brand remain strong having won new business in both towing and trailering, and given its exposure to the $2.4bn Australian New Zealand 4WD accessories and trailering market.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $14.10 from $16.95.

Target price is $14.10 Current Price is $7.76 Difference: $6.34
If GUD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 82% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.77, suggesting upside of 63.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HVN as Downgrade to Sell from Buy (5) -

UBS believes a more bearish view of the consumer discretionary sector is required. Higher interest rates, food inflation, soaring fuel and energy costs are all combining along with more sober house prices. The broker reduces earnings estimates for the sector in FY23 by -23% on average.

UBS revises estimates for Harvey Norman earnings to reflect the deteriorating macro environment. The sales mix is skewed to large items that can be deferred such as furniture and bedding, white and brown goods.

The broker also notes the company adopts an approach which prioritises market share and franchisee health over shareholders in the short term.

Rating is downgraded to Sell from Buy and the target reduced to $3.35 from $6.50.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $3.85 Difference: minus $0.5 (current price is over target).
If HVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.84, suggesting upside of 30.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley generally lowers its price targets for stocks in its Resources sector coverage after cutting 2022 forecasts for most key commodities. This comes as China lockdowns impact and global growth is considered an ongoing concern.

However, there is an average upside of 21% to those lowered price targets and the broker suggests concerns have been more than factored into current share prices.

Morgan Stanley lowers its 2022 nickel price forecast by -12% and retains its Underweight rating for IGO. The target price falls to $10.20 from $10.65. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $10.20 Current Price is $10.41 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.49, suggesting upside of 26.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley generally lowers its price targets for stocks in its Resources sector coverage after cutting 2022 forecasts for most key commodities. This comes as China lockdowns impact and global growth is considered an ongoing concern.

However, there is an average upside of 21% to those lowered price targets and the broker suggests concerns have been more than factored into current share prices.

The target price for Iluka Resources actually rises to $11.40 from $11.15 partly due to a lower Australian dollar forecast, which drives increases for 2022-24 EPS forecasts. The Equal-weight rating is unchanged. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $11.40 Current Price is $9.02 Difference: $2.38
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.12, suggesting upside of 39.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IPH as Outperform (1) -

While IPH's share price has declined -10% from early 2021, Macquarie analysts note this is indicative of the company's share price resilience with the Small Ords declining around -30% in the same period, and that IPH's scope for global growth is now better than it was pre-pandemic. 

The broker notes industry volumes remain healthy, and that industry readthroughs from the US market are broadly supportive of Macquarie's view on IPH's defensiveness.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $8.25 from $9.70.

Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $7.38 Difference: $0.87
If IPH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IPL as Neutral (3) -

Citi reduces US ammonia price assumptions by -6% for FY23, to US$900/t, and by -19% for FY24. Urea prices are expected to decline by -6% in FY23. Uncertainties abound, including the prospect of rate hikes, exacerbated by supply chain disruptions from the Russia/Ukraine conflict.

The broker notes shares in Incitec Pivot are down -9% over the past month and in line with the broader market, envisaging the risk/reward is balanced at current levels although further declines in fertiliser prices could limit gains in the shares.

Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $3.50 from $3.70.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.41 Difference: $0.09
If IPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.06, suggesting upside of 21.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JBH as Neutral (3) -

UBS believes a more bearish view of the consumer discretionary sector is required. Higher interest rates, food inflation, soaring fuel and energy costs are all combining along with more sober house prices. The broker reduces earnings estimates for the sector in FY23 by -23% on average.

UBS revises estimates for JB Hi-Fi to reflect the deteriorating environment. The Good Guys is more exposed to big-ticket items and the housing category and a decline in sales is envisaged, although EBIT margins are expected to settle above pre-pandemic levels. Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $38 and $54.

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $39.37 Difference: minus $1.37 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $51.83, suggesting upside of 33.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LNK as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley upgrades its rating for Link Administration to Overweight from Equal-weight on valuation support.

The broker believes the company's assets are strategically attractive at current valuation levels, as indicated by the current $5.50 Dye & Durham offer and several other past offers for parts of the business.

The  target price falls to $4.40 from $5.50 on a sum-of-the-parts calculation, while FY23 earnings (EBITDA) estimate falls by -4%. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: $0.85
If LNK meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.96, suggesting upside of 36.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LOV as Buy (1) -

UBS believes a more bearish view of the consumer discretionary sector is required. Higher interest rates, food inflation, soaring fuel and energy costs are all combining along with more sober house prices. The broker reduces earnings estimates for the sector in FY23 by -23% on average.

UBS reduces sales estimates for Lovisa Holdings across the US, Europe and Australasia while slightly increasing estimates for Asia. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $16 from $20.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $13.34 Difference: $2.66
If LOV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.67, suggesting upside of 57.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley generally lowers its price targets for stocks in its Resources sector coverage after cutting 2022 forecasts for most key commodities. This comes as China lockdowns impact and global growth is considered an ongoing concern.

However, there is an average upside of 21% to those lowered price targets and the broker suggests concerns have been more than factored into current share prices.

The broker likes the margin expansion potential from a weaker Australian dollar for Mineral Resources and maintains an Overweight stance.

Increases to the broker's FY23-24 EPS forecasts result from upgrades to its iron ore price forecast and the weaker currency. These changes overpower the lower iron ore price forecast for 2022 and the target price rises to $66.70 from $63.30. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $66.70 Current Price is $48.77 Difference: $17.93
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $70.43, suggesting upside of 49.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NCM as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley generally lowers its price targets for stocks in its Resources sector coverage after cutting 2022 forecasts for most key commodities. This comes as China lockdowns impact and global growth is considered an ongoing concern.

However, there is an average upside of 21% to those lowered price targets and the broker suggests concerns have been more than factored into current share prices.

For Newcrest Mining  a decrease to gold, silver and copper forecasts lowers FY22-23 EPS estimates. However, the FY24 EPS forecast rises slightly higher due to a lower forecast for the Australian dollar.

The broker likes the longer-term growth prospects and its Overweight rating is retained, while the target price falls to $28.60 from $32.10. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $28.60 Current Price is $23.57 Difference: $5.03
If NCM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.90, suggesting upside of 24.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NST as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley generally lowers its price targets for stocks in its Resources sector coverage after cutting 2022 forecasts for most key commodities. This comes as China lockdowns impact and global growth is considered an ongoing concern.

However, there is an average upside of 21% to those lowered price targets and the broker suggests concerns have been more than factored into current share prices.

Morgan Stanley considers Northern Star Resources has the best earnings sensitivity and near-term catalysts in its gold sector coverage.

A decrease in the broker's Australian dollar forecasts lifts FY23-24 EPS estimates, while a decrease to gold forecasts lowers the FY22 EPS estimate. The target price falls to $10.55 from $12.35 and the Overweight rating is unchanged. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $10.55 Current Price is $8.10 Difference: $2.45
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.21, suggesting upside of 53.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NUF as Buy (1) -

Citi reduces US ammonia price assumptions by -6% for FY23, to US$900/t, and by -19% for FY24. Urea prices are expected to decline by -6%. Uncertainties abound, including the prospect of rate hikes, exacerbated by supply chain disruptions from the Russia/Ukraine conflict.

Meanwhile, Nufarm is expected to benefit from higher crop plantings and production levels. Yields are expected to be above 10-year averages for the Australian crop in FY21-22 and FY22-23.

The broker trims FY23-24 top-line growth by -0.4-1% to reflect lower crop production levels in FY23. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $6.30 from $7.40.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $5.06 Difference: $2.34
If NUF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.87, suggesting upside of 35.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORI as Neutral (3) -

Citi reduces US ammonia price assumptions by -6% for FY23, to US$900/t, and by -19% for FY24. Urea prices are expected to decline by -6% in FY23. Uncertainties abound, including the prospect of rate hikes, exacerbated by supply chain disruptions from the Russia/Ukraine conflict.

The broker remains Neutral on Orica given the current volatility and estimates are unchanged as lower prices and volume growth assumptions have already been factored in. Target is reduced to $16.20 from $16.40.

Target price is $16.20 Current Price is $15.57 Difference: $0.63
If ORI meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.21, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates OZL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley generally lowers its price targets for stocks in its Resources sector coverage after cutting 2022 forecasts for most key commodities. This comes as China lockdowns impact and global growth is considered an ongoing concern.

However, there is an average upside of 21% to those lowered price targets and the broker suggests concerns have been more than factored into current share prices.

After allowing in forecasts for a lower Australian dollar and slight decreases to copper and gold price estimates, the broker's target price for OZ Minerals falls to $23.20 from $26.10. Equal-weight Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $23.20 Current Price is $20.68 Difference: $2.52
If OZL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.68, suggesting upside of 25.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PMV as Buy (1) -

UBS believes a more bearish view of the consumer discretionary sector is required. Higher interest rates, food inflation, soaring fuel and energy costs are all combining along with more sober house prices. The broker reduces earnings estimates for the sector in FY23 by -23% on average.

UBS revises estimates for Premier Investments to reflect the current deterioration in the macro environment. Sales estimates are reduced across all divisions. Investments income is also reduced to reflect lower earnings forecasts for Breville Group ((BRG)).

Buy rating maintained and the target is lowered to $23 from $31.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $19.55 Difference: $3.45
If PMV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.50, suggesting upside of 43.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley generally lowers its price targets for stocks in its Resources sector coverage after cutting 2022 forecasts for most key commodities. This comes as China lockdowns impact and global growth is considered an ongoing concern.

However, there is an average upside of 21% to those lowered price targets and the broker suggests concerns have been more than factored into current share prices.

Morgan Stanley prefers Rio Tinto in the iron ore space for its higher iron ore grades and aluminium exposure and retains its Overweight rating. 

The target price falls to $119.50 from $128.50 after a -13% cut to the broker's forecast 2022 iron ore price and other reduced commodity price forecasts. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $119.50 Current Price is $104.50 Difference: $15
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $123.07, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RMC as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie observes funding costs have increased more quickly than previously expected. Book growth for Resimac Group is still expected, supported by ongoing variable rate settlement activity and the refinancing of fixed-rate loans as these mature.

Still, the broker expects cash rates need to stabilise in order for investors to be more confident in the outlook. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target is lowered to $1.30 from $1.91.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.22 Difference: $0.08
If RMC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RRL as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -

Morgan Stanley generally lowers its price targets for stocks in its Resources sector coverage after cutting 2022 forecasts for most key commodities. This comes as China lockdowns impact and global growth is considered an ongoing concern.

However, there is an average upside of 21% to those lowered price targets and the broker suggests concerns have been more than factored into current share prices.

Morgan Stanley sees the least upside for Regis Resources among its gold coverage and notes recent production issues. The rating falls to Underweight from Equal-weight and the target declines to $1.75 from $2.30. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.66 Difference: $0.09
If RRL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.20, suggesting upside of 44.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley generally lowers its price targets for stocks in its Resources sector coverage after cutting 2022 forecasts for most key commodities. This comes as China lockdowns impact and global growth is considered an ongoing concern.

However, there is an average upside of 21% to those lowered price targets and the broker suggests concerns have been more than factored into current share prices.

South32 remains a key pick for Morgan Stanley for its base metals and met coal exposures. The target price falls to $5.10 from $5.80 and the Overweight rating is maintained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.09 Difference: $1.01
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.91, suggesting upside of 46.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SBM as Neutral (3) -

St. Barbara stocks have taken a hit after news the final investment decision on Simberi sulphide is again deferred. A sale of Simberi appears the sensible option to Citi as the company needs the cash.

The business is preoccupied with ongoing operating issues at Gwalia, and with projects in three countries along with a stretched balance sheet, Citi finds it hard to be positive.

The broker reduces estimates for EBITDA by -2-13% for FY22-24, as Beaver Dam and the sulphide project are delayed amid softer expectations for gold prices. Neutral/High Risk maintained. Target is reduced to $1.15 from $1.60.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.93 Difference: $0.22
If SBM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.24, suggesting upside of 52.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SBM as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

St. Barbara has announced it will delay the Final Investment Decision for its Simberi project as it undergoes a strategic review. 

Macquarie notes the company has suggested its front end engineering design report indicated a significant increase to required capital expenditure. The company is facing a potential production hiatus at its Atlantic project given delays to its tails solution permitting.

The broker incorporates a four-week hiatus into forecasts, driving a -3% decline to earnings per share expectations in FY23, but delays to the project's pit development drive further -11% and -21% forecast declines in FY25 and FY26.

The rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and the target price decreases to $1.00 from $1.70.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.93 Difference: $0.07
If SBM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.24, suggesting upside of 52.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley generally lowers its price targets for stocks in its Resources sector coverage after cutting 2022 forecasts for most key commodities. This comes as China lockdowns impact and global growth is considered an ongoing concern.

However, there is an average upside of 21% to those lowered price targets and the broker suggests concerns have been more than factored into current share prices. 

Morgan Stanley lowers its FY22-24 EPS forecasts for Sandfire Resources due to lower gold, copper and zinc metals forecasts. The Overweight rating is retained, while the target falls to $6.45 from $7.35. Industry View: Atractive.

Target price is $6.45 Current Price is $4.88 Difference: $1.57
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.00, suggesting upside of 54.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SSM as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett assesses recent commitments by NBN Co to upgrade eligible households to the highest-grade fibre technology improves earnings visibility for the Service Stream telco segment in FY23 and FY24.

The broker believes the company's exposure to 5G roll-out programs for major telco infrastructure owners provides access to growth opportunities in both wireless and fibre markets.

The broker trims EBITDA margins by -0.5% to account for the likely cost pressures on professional services and contractors. With lower earnings risk into the FY22 result, the broker maintains a Buy rating and reduces the target to $1.30 from $1.42.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.81 Difference: $0.49
If SSM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SUL as Buy (1) -

UBS believes a more bearish view of the consumer discretionary sector is required. Higher interest rates, food inflation, soaring fuel and energy costs are all combining along with more sober house prices. The broker reduces earnings estimates for the sector in FY23 by -23% on average.

UBS revises earnings estimates. EBIT margins have been reduced for all Super Retail brands. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $9.50 from $13.00.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $8.63 Difference: $0.87
If SUL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.50, suggesting upside of 50.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SVW as Buy (1) -

Presentations at an investor briefing highlighted the importance of the company's structures and controls in transforming the earnings performance of Boral. Seven Group has reiterated FY22 EBIT growth guidance of 8-10%, despite the climate and energy headwinds.

This suggests to UBS that both WesTrac and Coates are performing better than recent commentary had suggested.

In the case of Coates, the outlook is strong because of the number of Australian infrastructure projects currently under construction. Demand for mining fleet re-builds also underpins WesTrac earnings. UBS retains a Buy rating and $27.11 target.

Target price is $27.11 Current Price is $16.39 Difference: $10.72
If SVW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.44, suggesting upside of 66.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SYM as Overweight (1) -

Following its investor day, Symbio Holdings issued guidance at the lower end of the prior $35m-$38m range, which didn't overly surprise Morgan Stanley given slippage in Singapore and the need for reinvestment.

While profitability in Singapore has been delayed to the 1Q of 2023, management noted many customers have already been signed up.

The Overweight rating and $4.80 target are retained. Industry View; In Line.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $3.77 Difference: $1.03
If SYM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SYR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley generally lowers its price targets for stocks in its Resources sector coverage after cutting 2022 forecasts for most key commodities. This comes as China lockdowns impact and global growth is considered an ongoing concern.

However, there is an average upside of 21% to those lowered price targets and the broker suggests concerns have been more than factored into current share prices.

For Syrah Resources, Morgan Stanley retains its $1.40 target price after raising its graphite forecast and lowering its Australian dollar forecast. There's considered to be less bullish upside to longer-term graphite prices. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.16 Difference: $0.24
If SYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TPW as Neutral (3) -

Temple & Webster will be cycling tough comparables in FY23 and the macro headwinds are gaining strength. Macquarie still expects consumer spending will hold up amid active customer growth and the shift online.

Macquarie reduces estimates for earnings per share in FY22 by -37%, FY23 by -65% and FY24 by -34%, driven by updated revenue assumptions and a change in valuation method.

The broker also transfers coverage to another analyst. Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $3.60 from $9.70.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.29 Difference: $0.31
If TPW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.86, suggesting upside of 69.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates UNI as Buy (1) -

UBS believes a more bearish view of the consumer discretionary sector is required. Higher interest rates, food inflation, soaring fuel and energy costs are all combining along with more sober house prices. The broker reduces earnings estimates for the sector in FY23 by -23% on average.

UBS revises estimates to reflect the deteriorating environment, lowering FY22 and FY23 estimates for earnings per share by -6.1% and -4.6%, respectively. Buy retained. Target is reduced to $4.50 from $5.00.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.63 Difference: $0.87
If UNI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.65, suggesting upside of 22.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley generally lowers its price targets for stocks in its Resources sector coverage after cutting 2022 forecasts for most key commodities. This comes as China lockdowns impact and global growth is considered an ongoing concern.

However, there is an average upside of 21% to those lowered price targets and the broker suggests concerns have been more than factored into current share prices.

Morgan Stanley raises its coal price forecasts for 2022 and 2023 by 28% and 50% and expects an increasingly tight market with prices higher for longer. Whitehaven Coal is the preferred exposure in the broker's coverage and the Overweight rating is maintained.

The analyst also likes the company's relative growth prospects in the sector and raises its target price to $7.75 from $5.60. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $7.75 Current Price is $4.70 Difference: $3.05
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.53, suggesting upside of 42.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources