Australian Broker Call

May 26, 2017

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

Last Updated: 12:36 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
AHG - AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS Downgrade to Neutral from Buy UBS
ANN - ANSELL Downgrade to Sell from Neutral UBS
API - AUS PHARMACEUTICAL IND Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral Credit Suisse
MLB - MELBOURNE IT Downgrade to Hold from Buy Ord Minnett
SIG - SIGMA HEALTHCARE Downgrade to Sell from Neutral Citi
ABC  ADELAIDE BRIGHTON LIMITED

Building Products & Services

Overnight Price: $5.62

Deutsche Bank rates ABC as Hold (3) -

The company has provided slightly more downbeat guidance at its AGM. Deutsche Bank reduces FY17 expectations for net profit by -2%.

The broker remains cautious on the stock, believing Western Australia remains a risk, while the company's price/earnings multiple is 8% ahead of its global peer average.

Hold rating retained. Target falls to $4.99 from $5.09.

Target price is $4.99 Current Price is $5.62 Difference: minus $0.63 (current price is over target).
If ABC meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.18, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.7, implying annual growth of 7.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.1, implying annual growth of 4.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates ABC as Outperform (1) -

The company's outlook from its AGM is softer than expected for the first half. The balance of positives and negatives in the outlook largely offset each other, Macquarie observes, but the underlying result is expected to be lower than the prior corresponding half.

The broker ascribes the negatives predominantly to the wet weather patterns in NSW in March and Northern Territory  in January-February.

Macquarie downgrades forecasts for FY17 earnings per share by -3.5% and FY18 by -1.0% to account for the headwinds from electricity costs although price traction is largely expected to be a mitigating factor.

Target is reduced to $6.25 from $6.30. Outperform retained.

Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $5.62 Difference: $0.63
If ABC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.18, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 29.80 cents and EPS of 31.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.7, implying annual growth of 7.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 22.30 cents and EPS of 36.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.1, implying annual growth of 4.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AHG  AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components

Overnight Price: $3.03

UPDATED

Deutsche Bank rates AHG as Buy (1) -

The company has downgraded FY17 underlying net profit guidance to $87-89m. Deutsche Bank observes the stock is down -19% over the last two months, that largely reflects expectations of a downgrade.

The company has initiated a cost reduction program across the automotive business, expected to result in pre-tax savings of $10m per annum. Deutsche Bank reduces forecasts for FY17 net profit by -4%. Buy rating retained. Target drops to $4.30 from $4.60.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.03 Difference: $1.27
If AHG meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.81, suggesting upside of 26.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.8, implying annual growth of -5.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.5, implying annual growth of 9.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Macquarie rates AHG as Outperform (1) -

The company has warned that FY17 underlying net profit will be $87-89m. This compares to AGM guidance that suggested the company continues to expect the FY17 result to be ahead of FY16 levels.

Macquarie reduces forecasts for FY17 earnings per share by -10.3% and FY18 by -7.1%. Outperform retained as the stock appears good value relative to peers. Target is reduced to $3.76 from $4.37.

Target price is $3.76 Current Price is $3.03 Difference: $0.73
If AHG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.81, suggesting upside of 26.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 26.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.8, implying annual growth of -5.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.50 cents and EPS of 29.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.5, implying annual growth of 9.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Morgan Stanley rates AHG as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley observes a decline in new car sales and slow going with the logistics transformation program have underscored the downgrading of FY17 net profit guidance to -8.5-10.5% below FY16.

The company has also announced a cost reduction program which will cost -$35m. Morgan Stanley believes weak consumer confidence and continued pressure on finance will remain a drag on the stock. Underweight maintained. Target is $3.00. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.03 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If AHG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.81, suggesting upside of 26.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 19.80 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.8, implying annual growth of -5.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.5, implying annual growth of 9.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates AHG as Hold (3) -

Weak sales in WA, tighter credit conditions impacting on sales elsewhere, and a slight delay in the Cold Logistics cost-out has led Auto Holdings to downgrade guidance to -6% below consensus forecasts. The company will now begin a cost-out in Auto to offset both such conditions and new regulations.

The broker has cut forecast earnings but believes the cost-out can provide a buffer from further weakness, while it is expected Cold Logistics will eventually be exited. Hold retained, target drops to $3.69 from $3.89.

Target price is $3.69 Current Price is $3.03 Difference: $0.66
If AHG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.81, suggesting upside of 26.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.8, implying annual growth of -5.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.5, implying annual growth of 9.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

UBS rates AHG as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

The company has downgraded FY17 net profit guidance to a range of $87-89m, down -8.4-10.5% versus FY16. The company has also flagged -$35m in restructuring costs which will be taken below the line. The refrigerated logistics division is expected to report a materially improved second half.

The weaker performance is driven by continued weak new car sales in Western Australia and a softening on the east coast, UBS observes. The broker believes, given an apparent plateauing of house prices and subsequent wealth effect, there is a risk that the weaker household cash flow that is forecast will impact on new car sales data in FY18.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy. Target is reduced to $3.05 from $4.95.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $3.03 Difference: $0.02
If AHG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.81, suggesting upside of 26.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 26.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.8, implying annual growth of -5.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 23.30 cents and EPS of 28.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.5, implying annual growth of 9.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALL  ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED

Gaming

Overnight Price: $21.04

Citi rates ALL as Buy (1) -

Citi analysts label Aristocrat's interim report "a comfortable, high quality beat". Aust/NZ operations were the only one performing in-line, and there were higher costs too to offset, alongside negative FX movements and higher taxes.

This has triggered 3-7% upgrades to FY17-19 estimates, which has pushed up the share price target to $25.45 from $23.85. Buy rating not just retained; the analysts reiterate this one remains a conviction Buy.

Target price is $25.45 Current Price is $21.04 Difference: $4.41
If ALL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.33, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 33.00 cents and EPS of 84.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.2, implying annual growth of 54.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.4.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 41.00 cents and EPS of 98.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.0, implying annual growth of 17.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates ALL as Neutral (3) -

Upon the first half results, Credit Suisse upgrades North American operating margin forecasts. Estimates for earnings per share are upgraded 11-14% across the forecast period.

The broker can envisage solid growth in earnings per share out to FY20 on the back of the Dragon Link roll-out in North America. Neutral rating retained. Target rises to $23.50 from $20.50.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $21.04 Difference: $2.46
If ALL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.33, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 88.06 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.2, implying annual growth of 54.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.4.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 72.00 cents and EPS of 102.45 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.0, implying annual growth of 17.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Deutsche Bank rates ALL as Buy (1) -

Deutsche Bank believes the above-market first half result is a strong positive, given a 38.5% increase in operating earnings.

The broker was disappointed with a lower-than-anticipated increase in the dividend and the maintenance of full-year earnings guidance, yet suspects this should be viewed in the context of the new CEO and the company's usual conservatism.

Buy rating maintained. Target rises to $26.85 from $21.70.

Target price is $26.85 Current Price is $21.04 Difference: $5.81
If ALL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.33, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 93.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.2, implying annual growth of 54.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.4.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 109.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.0, implying annual growth of 17.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Macquarie rates ALL as Outperform (1) -

First half revenue and net profit were much better than expected. FY17 guidance is reiterated for net profit growth of 20-30% which Macquarie believes could be conservative.

Australasian margin growth has continued and Macquarie extrapolates this to the second half. While forecasting an overall revenue decline in FY17 the broker highlights the strength of Dragon Link's early performance in Queensland.

The broker believes this company is well-placed to outmanoeuvre competition, while North America and the digital business underpin a strong earnings outlook. Target prices rises 22% to $24.00. Outperform.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $21.04 Difference: $2.96
If ALL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.33, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 80.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.2, implying annual growth of 54.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.4.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 34.80 cents and EPS of 89.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.0, implying annual growth of 17.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Ord Minnett rates ALL as Buy (1) -

First half net profit was 7% above Ord Minnett's forecasts. The broker believes the company continues to deliver on growth initiatives and there are further digital growth and capital management opportunities available.

The broker believes the risk/reward remains attractive, given strong execution by management and the scarcity of earnings growth in the market. Buy rating retained. Target rises to $23 from $21.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $21.04 Difference: $1.96
If ALL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.33, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 77.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.2, implying annual growth of 54.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.4.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 41.00 cents and EPS of 91.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.0, implying annual growth of 17.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates ALL as Buy (1) -

First half results revealed a significant increase in market share, delivering a 49% rise in net profit. UBS observes, from an operational perspective, around 80% of the estimated FY18 earnings uplift will be driven by an 18% increase in US revenues.

The broker is yet to include upside from adjacent market entry or improvement in the US economy in its forecasts. Buy rating retained. Target rises to $23.20 from $18.91.

Target price is $23.20 Current Price is $21.04 Difference: $2.16
If ALL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.33, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 88.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.2, implying annual growth of 54.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.4.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 43.00 cents and EPS of 110.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.0, implying annual growth of 17.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AMP  AMP LIMITED

Insurance

Overnight Price: $5.18

Citi rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

Citi analysts report AMP has used it Investor Day briefings to try to convince the investment community it is all but ex-growth. Citi analysts comment a lot of what was being said, and what is being targeted, makes sense, but there are execution risks.

As such, they find today's share price seems to offer some value, but they also think there is no rush for investors to get in. Neutral rating retained. Target $5.60. Estimates have been left unchanged.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.18 Difference: $0.42
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.63, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 34.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 36.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.0, implying annual growth of 3.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

At its strategy briefing management acknowledged that the economics of wealth management are changing and margins are shifting across the value chain and Credit Suisse believes, while this adds pressure and uncertainty to near-term earnings, it also creates opportunity.

Credit Suisse is supportive of the strategy adopted by management but high investor expectations are a key concern. Neutral retained. Target is $5.50.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $5.18 Difference: $0.32
If AMP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.63, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.0, implying annual growth of 3.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes AMP continues its strategy of tilting the portfolio towards higher growth and capital-light business. Nevertheless, the broker believes the investment case is not sufficiently compelling at the current price.

The performance of AMP Capital is increasingly less reliant on the group relationship and the broker believes this could support a business restructure opportunity. Neutral retained. Target is $5.35.

Target price is $5.35 Current Price is $5.18 Difference: $0.17
If AMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.63, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 28.40 cents and EPS of 33.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.80 cents and EPS of 34.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.0, implying annual growth of 3.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates AMP as Add (1) -

In order to fight margin compression in wealth management, AMP will focus on advice and SMSF services. The broker believes revenue growth can be achieved.

By leveraging its advisor network, AMP hopes to double bank profits over five years. The broker sees this as a stretch. The broker nevertheless believes the market is underestimating long term growth potential from growing Chinese investment in funds management.

Add and $5.88 target retained.

Target price is $5.88 Current Price is $5.18 Difference: $0.7
If AMP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.63, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 29.60 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 30.10 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.0, implying annual growth of 3.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Ord Minnett rates AMP as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett observes a strong message around decreasing capital intensity, a five-year growth strategy and strong control of expenses from the company's investor briefing.

The company is looking to shift investment from higher capital intensity businesses such as wealth protection and New Zealand to low capital intensity businesses or where it has a competitive advantage.

Ord Minnett maintains an Accumulate rating and raises the target to $5.88 from $5.80.

Target price is $5.88 Current Price is $5.18 Difference: $0.7
If AMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.63, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.0, implying annual growth of 3.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

The investor briefing showcased the higher growth businesses, UBS observes. While there is clearly some growth potential, the broker was left questioning how material the impact may ultimately be, given the drag from the three businesses that are now effectively in run-off or "value management".

The broker notes new revenue initiatives are aimed at offsetting a tougher world for wealth management. Neutral rating and $5.30 target retained.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $5.18 Difference: $0.12
If AMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.63, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.0, implying annual growth of 3.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ANN  ANSELL LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices

Overnight Price: $25.18

Citi rates ANN as Sell (5) -

Citi analysts remain undeterred in their Sell rating for Ansell, noting the proceeds from the sale of the Sexual Wellness division are some -10% below their own expectation.

They note the company expects to realise a net profit after tax in the order of US$365m, which is expected to be recorded in FY18 since the deal is expected to be finalised before September.

Citi analysts believe all the good news, including a 10% buy back and the sale of the division, are already reflected in today's share price. State the analysts: "even our most optimistic scenarios didn't justify the current share price". Raw material prices headwinds are expected to continue in FY18. Target $20.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $25.18 Difference: minus $5.18 (current price is over target).
If ANN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $23.80, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 58.21 cents and EPS of 140.86 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 139.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 58.21 cents and EPS of 118.41 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 191.5, implying annual growth of 37.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Credit Suisse rates ANN as Neutral (3) -

The company has announced the sale of its sexual wellness business for US$600m. A share buy-back program on market for up to 10% of issued capital has also been announced.

Credit Suisse believes the onus is now on management to invest wisely and boost not only earnings growth but also the return on invested capital. Neutral rating retained. Target rises to $25.80 from $22.70.

Target price is $25.80 Current Price is $25.18 Difference: $0.62
If ANN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.80, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 59.47 cents and EPS of 134.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 139.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 62.13 cents and EPS of 130.23 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 191.5, implying annual growth of 37.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates ANN as Equal-weight (3) -

The company has announced the sale of its sexual health business. The price of US$600m was at the upper end of Morgan Stanley's expectations.

 The company has also announced a buy-back of up to 10% of issued capital. On the broker's pro-forma analysis of the sale, around 3%  accretion to earnings per share is indicated.

The broker retains a Equal-weight rating. Target is $23.59. Sector view is In-Line.

Target price is $23.59 Current Price is $25.18 Difference: minus $1.59 (current price is over target).
If ANN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $23.80, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 60.20 cents and EPS of 134.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 139.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 64.19 cents and EPS of 140.86 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 191.5, implying annual growth of 37.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates ANN as Hold (3) -

Ansell has sold its condom business to the Chinese for $600m, a price the broker sees as reasonable. But the company will now have to drive the core industrial safety business hard, the broker suggests, to fill the earnings void.

Acquisitions will be necessary to support growth, but with nothing on the horizon, a 10% buyback will be implemented. Hold retained, target rises to $23.41 from $21.79.

Target price is $23.41 Current Price is $25.18 Difference: minus $1.77 (current price is over target).
If ANN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $23.80, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 58.47 cents and EPS of 140.86 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 139.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 53.16 cents and EPS of 132.89 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 191.5, implying annual growth of 37.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Ord Minnett rates ANN as Hold (3) -

The company's sale of the sexual wellness business makes good strategic sense in Ord Minnett's view. The broker believes the decision to apply half the funds to a share buy-back signals a surprising dearth of investment opportunities. That said, the broker supports the capital management.

The broker believes the earnings outlook is now uninspiring with flat earnings per share expected until the group cycles past the sale. Hold rating retained. Target is raised to $26.00 from $23.50.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $25.18 Difference: $0.82
If ANN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.80, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 59.80 cents and EPS of 134.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 139.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 57.14 cents and EPS of 482.39 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 191.5, implying annual growth of 37.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates ANN as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

The company will sell its sexual wellness business for US$600m. This has been the fastest growth asset for the company, UBS observes. On a three-year outlook the broker estimates the continuing business will grow operating earnings at 2-4%.

The broker believes valuation is not supporting the current stock price and downgrades to Sell from Neutral. The company will commence a buy-back on market for up to 10% of issued stock.

The broker suspects the growth outlook may improve with industrial recovery. The company continues to examine acquisitions but has conceded there is a lack of opportunities that satisfy its valuation metrics. Target is raised to $24 from $22.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $25.18 Difference: minus $1.18 (current price is over target).
If ANN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $23.80, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 59.80 cents and EPS of 135.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 139.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 61.13 cents and EPS of 132.89 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 191.5, implying annual growth of 37.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

API  AUSTRALIAN PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES

Health & Nutrition

Overnight Price: $1.97

Credit Suisse rates API as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Following Sigma's ((SIG)) trading update, Credit Suisse revises assumptions for earnings for Australian Pharmaceutical industries.

Credit Suisse lowers revenue growth assumptions for the company's retail division and this results in earnings downgrades of -3-5% over the forecast period.

Target is reduced to $1.90 from $2.05 and the rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral.  A slower shop-front trading environment and a more competitive wholesaling dynamic suggests the sector will be challenged over the short to medium term.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.97 Difference: minus $0.065 (current price is over target).
If API meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.88, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 7.05 cents and EPS of 11.17 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.4, implying annual growth of 7.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 8.20 cents and EPS of 11.76 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.4, implying annual growth of 8.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BLX  BEACON LIGHTING GROUP LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation

Overnight Price: $1.42

Morgans rates BLX as Add (1) -

The broker has pulled back its earnings forecasts for Beacon because retail is quite simply very tough at present. The company's offshore exposure and other segments, such as street lighting, provide some diversity but there's also evidence of Master's exit having provided a short term boost.

The broker retains Add, looking through to weakness to highlight a competitive advantage, new store openings, and a major competitor leaving the market. Target falls to $1.61 from $1.92.

Target price is $1.61 Current Price is $1.42 Difference: $0.195
If BLX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 4.80 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.69.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.72.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GMG  GOODMAN GROUP

Infra & Property Developers

Overnight Price: $8.55

Deutsche Bank rates GMG as Initiate Coverage with Hold (3) -

While the company stands to benefit from the increasing shift to online retail, Deutsche Bank believes this is factored into the current share price. Accordingly, the broker initiates coverage with a Hold rating.

While 43% of the company's operating earnings relate to Australasia, the broker notes the likely additional industrial requirements for Amazon in Australia is 1-2 warehouses, initially.

Deutsche Bank notes the investment portfolio continues to deliver solid results, with above-peer average rental reversions over the last five years. Target is set at $8.54.

Target price is $8.54 Current Price is $8.55 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.91, suggesting downside of -7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.6, implying annual growth of -38.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 46.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.9, implying annual growth of 2.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MLB  MELBOURNE IT LIMITED

IT & Support

Overnight Price: $2.55

ADDED

Ord Minnett rates MLB as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

The company has now completed the acquisition of WME and the associated capital raising. Nevertheless, given a strong recent share performance Ord Minnett is downgrading to Hold from Buy. Target is $2.59.

Management expects 12-18% accretion for earnings in 2017 on an underlying basis, which assumes WME is owned for a full year. The company has updated FY17 guidance to $37.5-41.5m.

Target price is $2.59 Current Price is $2.55 Difference: $0.04
If MLB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.17.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 21.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.70.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SAR  SARACEN MINERAL HOLDINGS LIMITED

Gold & Silver

Overnight Price: $1.06

Macquarie rates SAR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie recently visited the Carosue Dam operation in Western Australia. The broker believes exploration success has greatly improved the production and earnings outlook.

Notwithstanding the capital requirements for the establishment of an underground mine at Thunderbox, already factored into forecasts, Macquarie expects earnings and cash flow metrics will improve significantly.

The broker reiterates an Outperform rating and $1.30 target.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.06 Difference: $0.245
If SAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 6.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.02.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 9.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.66.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SIG  SIGMA HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Health & Nutrition

Overnight Price: $0.76

UPDATED

Citi rates SIG as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Yesterday, in a first response post bad news announcement from the company, Citi analysts had elected not to make any changes to their $1.20 price target, forecasts or Neutral rating. This has all changed 24 hours later. Citi has downgraded to Sell.

Behind the downgrade hides a significant change in view and that is now that Sigma is likely to lose its major customer Chemist Warehouse once the current agreement expires in 2019.

This, the analysts explain, will translate in the loss of circa -33% of revenues in H2 FY20. Target price tumbles to 65c from $1.20. Estimates have been culled.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.76 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If SIG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.86, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.50 cents and EPS of 5.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.0, implying annual growth of 11.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.50 cents and EPS of 5.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.2, implying annual growth of 3.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SIQ  SMARTGROUP CORPORATION LTD

Vehicle Leasing & Salary Packaging

Overnight Price: $7.09

Morgans rates SIQ as Hold (3) -

Smartgroup's AGM revealed the acquisition of salary packager AccessPay Group for $15m, with 4% earnings accretion expected. No formal guidance was provided other than "the business continues to trade well".

The broker retains Hold, noting the company is delivering solid organic growth and such bolt-on acquisition opportunities provide upside risk to forecasts. Target rises to $7.40 from $7.15.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $7.09 Difference: $0.31
If SIQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.29, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 47.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.5, implying annual growth of 49.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 53.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.5, implying annual growth of 13.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WBC  WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION

Banks

Overnight Price: $30.61

UPDATED

Deutsche Bank rates WBC as Buy (1) -

The sale of a 19% interest in BT Investment Management ((BTT)) is a sensible way to enhance the capital position, in Deutsche Bank's opinion, while reducing exposure to a segment that is diminished in strategic importance.

Management has also flagged an intention to sell its remaining 10% interest. In the broker's opinion this highlights the banking sector's ongoing efforts to improve readiness for APRA's unquestionably strong requirements. Buy rating and $35.60 target retained.

Target price is $35.60 Current Price is $30.61 Difference: $4.99
If WBC meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.34, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 188.00 cents and EPS of 234.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.0, implying annual growth of 6.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 188.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 192.00 cents and EPS of 244.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 244.3, implying annual growth of 2.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 188.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Summaries
ABC - ADELAIDE BRIGHTON Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $5.62
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.62
AHG - AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $3.03
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.03
Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $3.03
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $3.03
Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - UBS Overnight Price $3.03
ALL - ARISTOCRAT LEISURE Buy - Citi Overnight Price $21.04
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $21.04
Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $21.04
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $21.04
Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $21.04
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $21.04
AMP - AMP Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $5.18
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $5.18
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.18
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $5.18
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $5.18
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $5.18
ANN - ANSELL Sell - Citi Overnight Price $25.18
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $25.18
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $25.18
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $25.18
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $25.18
Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $25.18
API - AUS PHARMACEUTICAL IND Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $1.97
BLX - BEACON LIGHTING Add - Morgans Overnight Price $1.42
GMG - GOODMAN GRP Initiate Coverage with Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $8.55
MLB - MELBOURNE IT Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.55
SAR - SARACEN MINERAL Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.06
SIG - SIGMA HEALTHCARE Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $0.76
SIQ - SMARTGROUP Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $7.09
WBC - WESTPAC BANKING Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $30.61
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

12

2. Accumulate

1

3. Hold

15

5. Sell

5

Friday 26 May 2017

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.