Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates AGL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley reviews the utility sector, highlighting growth in data centres as an "underappreciated" tailwind for the industry.

The analyst notes data centre demand is projected to reach 3.2GW by 2030, with higher power prices and renewable project developments supporting incremental load growth.

AGL Energy remains the preferred utility with the "relative leverage" to data centres. Overweight rating and a target price of $12.88.

The Industry view is "Cautious."

Origin Energy ((ORG)) is Underweight rated.

Target price is $12.88 Current Price is $10.53 Difference: $2.35
If AGL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.59, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ALL as Add (1) -

Morgans updates its forecasts for Aristocrat Leisure to align with industry data points and feedback ahead of the company's FY24 result on November 13.

iGaming is outpacing the broker's previous estimates post-integration, while Pixel United performing in line with forecast.

A strong cash flow and balance sheet positions management well for potential M&A or share buybacks, in the broker's view, with additional upside potential from non-core asset sales across FY25-26.

The target rises to $67 from $56. Add.

Target price is $67.00 Current Price is $61.50 Difference: $5.5
If ALL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $61.30, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AMC as Neutral (3) -

While destocking in healthcare and North American beverages presented 1Q headwinds for Amcor, a good performance on costs meant both EBIT and EPS were in line with Citi's forecasts.

Group sales of $3,353m missed the consensus forecast by -4%. 

Management maintained FY25 EPS guidance of between 72-76c

Target $17. Neutral.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $16.01 Difference: $0.99
If AMC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.80, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMC as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie notes Amcor's Q1 FY25 results met expectations, with EPS rising 5% on a constant currency basis.

The analyst anticipates cost and volume comparisons will be less challenging in 1H25 than in 2H25. Healthcare showed early signs of de-stocking in 1H25, with volumes increasing in both rigids and flexibles by 3%.

Management has retained its FY25 guidance.

Macquarie lowers EPS forecasts by -3% for FY25 and FY26, mainly due to lower sales expectations.

The target price is reduced to $16.30 from $16.50, Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform, reflecting reduced upside potential for the company’s future earnings.

Target price is $16.30 Current Price is $16.01 Difference: $0.29
If AMC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.80, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AMC as Equal-weight (3) -

Amcor reported 3Q2024 results in line with consensus expectations, with Morgan Stanley noting lower depreciation/amortisation charges provided an earnings boost.

Volumes grew 2% across the portfolio, a 1% improvement from the previous quarter, though North American beverage and healthcare sectors lagged.

Management reiterated FY25 guidance, projecting 3%-8% EPS growth. Morgan Stanley observes net debt increased, with leverage rising to 3.5x, and Amcor aims to reduce this to 3x by the end of FY25, partly through the sale of its 50% stake in Bericap for US$122m.

The target price remains at $15.00, with an Equal-weight rating and an Industry view of "In Line."

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $16.01 Difference: minus $1.01 (current price is over target).
If AMC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.80, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AMC as Hold (3) -

Lower 1Q sales for Amcor were more than offset by cost-out and restructuring benefits, explains Morgans.

Volumes are on the improve sequentially despite headwinds from healthcare (ongoing destocking) and North America beverages
(continued soft demand), explains the analyst.

Management maintained FY25 guidance for underlying EPS of between US72-76c and free cash flow of US$900-1,000m.

The target eases to $15.75 from $15.94. Hold maintained.

Target price is $15.75 Current Price is $16.01 Difference: minus $0.26 (current price is over target).
If AMC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.80, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMC as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett notes Amcor’s 1Q25 EPS met consensus expectations, supported by lower depreciation/amortisation charges and reduced tax payments, though cash flow was weaker than anticipated.

Management retained FY25 guidance, and the new CEO emphasised a focus on organic growth, aiming to leverage global flexible packaging opportunities and reduce customer churn.

The broker highlights the sale of Amcor’s 50% stake in Bericap is expected to complete by December 2024.

The Lighten rating and $14.10 target price remain unchanged.

Target price is $14.10 Current Price is $16.01 Difference: minus $1.91 (current price is over target).
If AMC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.80, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ARB as Buy (1) -

ARB Corp competitor Fox Factory experienced ongoing weakness in the September quarter, highlights Citi.

In a potential positive readthrough for ARB Corp, the broker noted from management commentary at Fox the outlook is incrementally improving as OEM issues resolve and new vehicle models are starting to ship.

Buy. Target $50.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $41.42 Difference: $8.58
If ARB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.18, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASB as Buy (1) -

First-time FY25 EBIT guidance for Austal of $80m (in line with consensus) is an improvement on the more general prior guidance for “growth”, highlights Citi.

While accounting treatment is still being finalised, the broker sees further upside potential should the US$450m submarine
contract be treated as recurring income.

Target $4.14. Buy.

Target price is $4.14 Current Price is $3.16 Difference: $0.98
If ASB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.26, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AW1 as Buy, High Risk (1) -

American West Metals' Storm Copper project continued to deliver outstanding drill results throughout the September quarter, highlights Shaw and Partners.

Given upcoming material share price catalysts, the broker believes recent share price weakness presents an excellent buying opportunity for investors.

Buy. 32c target. High Risk.

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0.248
If AW1 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 344% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

Aurizon Holdings re-confirmed its FY25 guidance at the AGM. Macquarie highlighted improved Queensland export coal volumes but noted corridors with higher volume sensitivity to earnings leverage saw a slight decline.

The analyst observed an absence of wet weather supported a rebound in bulk volumes; however, uncertainties remain regarding bad debts and potential plant closures.

The downturn in iron ore volumes from Mineral Resources' ((MIN)) affected WA operations, while concentrates and fertilisers saw improvements. The bad debt concerns relate to Whyalla.

Macquarie maintains a Neutral rating and a target price of $3.60, with no changes to the broker’s EPS estimates.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.40 Difference: $0.2
If AZJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.52, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BRG as Neutral (3) -

Citi has previously highlighted the risk to Breville Group's sales posed by market share gains from SharkNinja.

In a further update, the broker highlights the recent strong US launch of SharkNinja's Ninja Luxe Cafe, an all-in-one coffee machine with espresso making capability.

Now the company intends launching in the UK, Germany and France (all direct markets for Breville, notes the analyst) as well as other European markets.

The $36.51 target and Neutral rating are maintained.

Target price is $36.51 Current Price is $31.13 Difference: $5.38
If BRG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.73, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CMM as Buy (1) -

Capricorn Metals announced a $200m equity raising at $6 per share to fund the Karlawinda expansion and Mt Gibson projects, as highlighted by Ord Minnett.

The analyst notes progress on Mt Gibson was “stalled” during the permit phase, but with permitting expected in 2024, the project is moving towards a final investment decision.

Following the raising, the company is considered in a strong financial position, with net cash and bullion totaling approximately $275m.

Ord Minnett maintains a Buy rating with a target price of $7.50.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $6.50 Difference: $1
If CMM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.33, suggesting upside of 13.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates COI as Speculative Buy (-1) -

Bell Potter observes Comet Ridge and Santos ((STO)) are continuing to advance the Mahalo joint venture. The analyst notes Comet had cash on hand of $11.4m with an un-drawn debt facility at the end of 1Q25. 

The broker highlights, the joint venture is moving to front end engineering design in 2025 and the 100% Mahalo norther development is moving through the federal permitting process.

Target price slips to 26c from 27c. Speculative Buy rating unchanged.

Target price is $0.26 Current Price is $0.16 Difference: $0.105
If COI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSL as Buy (1) -

As a line of sight for CSL, Citi reviews competitor Takeda's September quarter results. The growth in Ig and Albumin sales for Takeda were in line with forecasts by the broker and consensus for CSL.

For CSL's 1H results next February, the analyst forecasts sales growth for Ig and Albumin of 13% and 7%, respectively, compared to the respective consensus forecasts for 11% and 9%.

Buy rating with $345 target price unchanged.

Target price is $345.00 Current Price is $281.62 Difference: $63.38
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $335.13, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DXS as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley highlights Dexus could fall out of the ASX50 Index based on the Quant team's predictions.

The analyst believes the timing is ideal to reiterate its Underweight rating on the REIT with concerns around the prospects for cash flow generation in the next 2-3 years.

Morgan Stanley prefers Charter Hall ((CHC)), Stockland ((SGP)) and Scentre Group ((SCG)) the most with Overweight ratings on Goodman Group ((GMG)) and Centuria Capital Group ((CNI)).

Underweight rating. Unchanged $8.25 target. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $7.07 Difference: $1.18
If DXS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.84, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IME as Speculative Buy (1) -

Q1 revenue for ImExHS was in line with Morgans forecast, but the broker sees room for margin improvement via services pricing and cost controls.

Management's guidance was in line with the broker's forecasts.

The Speculative Buy rating and $1.15 target are maintained.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: $0.7
If IME meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 156% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IMR as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans concludes from Imricor Medical Systems' 3Q update showing cash receipts of US$305,000, the company is well funded to
complete the sales expansion and clinical program.

The cash balance sits at US$19.6m, which includes the proceeds from the $35m capital raise, notes the broker.

Speculative Buy rating retained with a 94c target price. No changes to earnings forecasts.

Target price is $0.94 Current Price is $0.64 Difference: $0.305
If IMR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JBH as Hold (3) -

Morgans raises its target for JB Hi-Fi to $75 from $69 after Q1 sales came in ahead of expectations. Even then, the broker's revised EPS estimates are still short of consensus forecasts for FY25 and FY26 by -2% and -0.9%, respectively.

The broker has lowered its gross margin forecast by -10bps in FY25 and -20bps in FY26 to reflect a weaker Australian dollar forecast.

The Hold rating is kept on valuation.

Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $81.83 Difference: minus $6.83 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $76.30, suggesting downside of -6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JHX as Add (1) -

US housing data continues to fall short of expectations, highlights Morgans, as existing homes sales fall to a 14-year low, along with lower housing starts and permits.

Given the broker regards James Hardie Industries as a high quality, offshore earning, growth company, buying into recent share price weakness on falling market sentiment is recommended to investors.

The analyst reiterates the company's entrenched market position, pricing power, and strong returns on capital.

The Add rating and $57.25 target are maintained.

Target price is $57.25 Current Price is $48.02 Difference: $9.23
If JHX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $56.98, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LNW as Add (1) -

Morgans updates its forecasts for Light & Wonder to align with industry data points and feedback ahead of the company's 3Q result on November 13.

The broker's EPSA estimates across FY24-25F fall by -1%, driven by slightly lower expectations on margins, offset by less aggressive capital management in FY25.

The $180 target and Add rating are maintained.

Target price is $180.00 Current Price is $142.97 Difference: $37.03
If LNW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $169.20, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LTR as Lighten (4) -

Liontown Resources reported 28.2kdmt of spodumene concentrate in its Q1 FY25 trading update, with Ord Minnett indicating the company is on track to achieve steady-state output by the March quarter of 2025.

Management did not provide updated guidance. The analyst notes Kathleen Valley shipped 10.8kdmt of spodumene concentrate this quarter, with the ramp-up progressing well.

The company holds $263m in cash following the receipt of net proceeds from LG Solution’s convertible note.

The Lighten rating and 75c target price remain unchanged.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.81 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If LTR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.88, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates M7T as Add (1) -

There were no significant surprises for Morgans within Mach7 Technologies' 1Q report.

The broker is comfortable in recommending investors buy on weakness at the current share price level.

The Add rating and $1.36 target are maintained.

Target price is $1.36 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.94
If M7T meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 224% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MAP as Speculative Buy (1) -

From 1Q results for Microba Life Sciences, Morgans observes strong growth in the testing business with continued momentum into Q2.

The broker notes the company is well capitalised and management is preparing for further testing services growth with new key hires and investment in the UK sales force.

The Speculative Buy rating and 33c target are maintained.

Target price is $0.33 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.16
If MAP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 94% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MIN as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Upon today's news Managing Director will step down over the next 12-18 months and the Chairman will exit before the FY26 AGM, Citi downgrades its rating for Mineral Resources to Sell from Neutral.

The analyst believes the slow pace of change will likely weigh on the stock price.

The target also falls by -$15 to $35 after the broker lowers its DCF-based valuation to 0.75x from 1.0x on an upcoming ASIC probe.

Also, it's felt there are negative ESG implications for many investors with concerns around culture and any other undisclosed matters.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $40.61 Difference: minus $5.61 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $43.79, suggesting upside of 18.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Neutral (3) -

Mineral Resources has announced the accelerated leadership transition with Chris Ellison, founder and managing director to step down following alleged historical financial dealing with overseas entities. Macquarie believes this is a positive step.

Regarding the company's recent results, the analyst emphasises the divestment of Mineral Resources' gas business, for an upfront payment of $0.86bn and up to $0.3bn in contingent liabilities, overshadowed the company's Q1 FY25 results.

The deal allows Mineral Resources to retain potential "upside" in the Lockyer, Erregulla Oil, and Moriary Deep prospects, Macquarie notes.

Operationally, the company reported Onslow shipping at an 11mt per annum rate in October, with mining rates at 62mt per annum. The analyst observes the third crusher is set for commissioning in Q2 FY25.

Macquarie lowers forecast FY25 EPS by -32% but raises FY26 EPS by 2%. The Neutral rating and $38 target price remain unchanged.

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $40.61 Difference: minus $2.61 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $43.79, suggesting upside of 18.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Overweight (1) -

Macquarie Group announced 1H25 results missed Morgan Stanley's estimate by -5% and were -7% below consensus, though results were up 14% year-on-year.

Management has lowered FY25 guidance, with expectations of a decline in commodities income and no anticipated increase in Macquarie Capital (MacCap) investment income.

The broker notes the declared dividend per share was lower than forecast, but the $2bn share buyback has been extended by an additional 12 months.

The target price remains at $250, with an Overweight rating and an Industry view of "In-Line."

Target price is $250.00 Current Price is $223.20 Difference: $26.8
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $212.62, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MQG as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett notes Macquarie Group reported "soft" results for 1H25, missing consensus estimates by -6%.

Management has lowered FY25 guidance due to reduced trading revenue from Commodities and Macquarie Capital (MacCap), because of  weaker investment income.

The broker reduces its FY25 earnings forecast by -7%, marking the sixth guidance downgrade since FY23, when earnings peaked.

Macquarie Group remains "optimistic" about its outlook, highlighting potential gains from green asset sales. Fundraising for infrastructure and green energy continued, with $7.2bn raised in 1H25.

The target price is raised to $245 from $230, with the Accumulate rating unchanged.

Target price is $245.00 Current Price is $223.20 Difference: $21.8
If MQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $212.62, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MX1 as Speculative Buy (1) -

Micro-X's 1Q results revealed mobile digital radiography (DR) sales were lower-than-expected and sales of the Argus are yet to materialise, highlights Morgans.

While the cash balance is low, the broker notes liquidity will be improved by a $6.4m R&D tax incentive payment which is due shortly.

The target falls to 19c from 21c. Speculative Buy.

Target price is $0.19 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0.117
If MX1 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 160% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NEM as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS downgrades Newmont Corp to Neutral from Buy and lowers the target price to US$54 from US$67, citing a "loss of confidence" in the company’s ability to meet guidance and restore market trust.

The broker reduces 2025 gold production estimates by -10% to 5.6moz and raises ongoing capex to -US$1.8bn from -US$1.5bn, resulting in higher all-in-sustaining costs of US$1,450/oz.

UBS also cuts 2025 EPS forecasts by -17% and reduces free cash flow estimates by -30% for 2025/2026.

The report highlights Newmont has struggled to regain confidence in its operational performance, increase cash returns, and lower costs.

Current Price is $69.15. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NIC as Buy (1) -

Nickel Industries reported a Q3 2024 trading update with lower-than-expected nickel production and higher cash costs, Bell Potter notes.

The company reported EBITDA of US$108.4m, which the analyst views as a positive result. Production from the Hengjaya mine nearly doubled compared to the previous quarter, with ore sales rising by 53%.

Cash on hand at the end of the quarter was US$193.1m, down from US$358.1m in the previous quarter due to the acquisition of an additional 16.1% stake in ENC.

Bell Potter lowers EPS estimates by -34% and -30% for 2024 and 2025, respectively, due to higher kiln furnace costs, lower nickel pig iron production, and softer nickel prices.

The target price declines to $1.43 from $1.47, with the Buy rating retained.

Target price is $1.43 Current Price is $0.92 Difference: $0.51
If NIC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.13, suggesting upside of 23.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NIC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes Nickel Industries' Q3 2024 nickel production was -6% below its estimate but 8% above consensus.

Total nickel sales, however, were weaker, coming in -5% below the analyst's and -7% below consensus expectations.

As the only pure nickel stock, Morgan Stanley views the company favourably, citing its profitability at current nickel prices.

The broker has raised EPS forecasts by 38.9% for 2024 and 105.7% for 2025.

The target price is increased to $1.10 from $1.00, with an Overweight rating and an Industry View of "Attractive."

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.92 Difference: $0.18
If NIC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.13, suggesting upside of 23.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NOU as Buy (1) -

Noumi reported Q1 FY25 sales that largely met Bell Potter’s expectations. Revenue grew 2.8% year-on-year, slightly surpassing the broker’s forecast due to an 8% increase in plant-based beverages.

The dairy business achieved double-digit growth in domestic channels, offsetting declines in export UHT markets, the analyst highlights.

Bell Potter notes that litigation issues over the past three years have been resolved, including the settlement of legacy Fonterra Milk Products liabilities, the Blue Diamond dispute, ASIC proceedings, and shareholder class actions.

Bell Potter believes the company’s profile is now de-risked. The Buy rating remains unchanged.

The target price is raised to 29.5c from 19.5c due to reduced legal liabilities

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.045
If NOU meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NST as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley notes Northern Star Resources reported a weaker-than-expected Q1 FY25 result, with production approximately -4% below both the broker’s and consensus forecasts, and all-in-sustaining costs 6% higher than expected.

The broker raises its EPS forecast by 38% for FY25 and slightly lowers FY26 EPS by -0.3%.

The Underweight rating remains unchanged, with the target price increasing to $15.60 from $14.35. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $15.60 Current Price is $17.58 Difference: minus $1.98 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.73, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NUZ as Speculative Buy (1) -

Beyond noting Neurizon Therapeutics 'cash position of $15m is "solid" and a small R&D rebate is forthcoming, Morgans garnered no further material new insights from 1Q results. 

The company has had a name change from Pharmaust.

The Speculative Buy rating and 42c target price are retained.

Target price is $0.42 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.22
If NUZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 110% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORG as Buy (1) -

Consistent with the consensus forecast, Citi now believes Origin Energy will utilise its balance sheet to maintain a flat dividend, despite a falling oil price and lower year-on-year earnings in the Energy Markets division.

For the medium-term, the analyst continues to argue a flat profile for consensus EBITDA in the Energy Markets is pessimistic.

Overall, the broker suggests the company's growing dividend profile is supportive of a higher valuation multiple.

The Buy rating and $11.00 target are maintained.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $9.72 Difference: $1.28
If ORG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.59, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PBH as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes PointsBet Holdings’ 1Q25 results showed stronger-than-expected customer growth in both the Australian and Canadian markets.

The analyst highlights results were especially positive given lower-than-anticipated promotional spending. Gross margins reached 13.2%, with a net interest margin of 10.2%.

Active customers increased by 5% over the quarter, exceeding the analyst's forecast by 3%.

The target price is raised to 95c from 85c due to a slight increase in EBITDA estimates, with the Buy rating retained.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.86 Difference: $0.09
If PBH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PIQ as Reduce (5) -

The Reduce rating and 50c target are maintained.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.73 Difference: minus $0.225 (current price is over target).
If PIQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PIQ as Reduce (5) -

Commenting after recent quarterly results which provided no major new insights, Morgans notes it is comfortable in avoiding the stock until funding and management's commercial strategy become clearer.

Regarding the diabetic kidney disease (DKD) asset, the broker suggests the recent exit from the key Sonic Healthcare ((SHL)) USA distribution agreement has left it harder to quantify overall marketability.

The Reduce rating and 50c target are maintained.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.73 Difference: minus $0.225 (current price is over target).
If PIQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SYR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes Syrah Resources' Q3 2024 results reflect ongoing challenges in the natural graphite market.

The analyst highlights there was no production at Balama, and Vidalia has yet to ramp up, with sales not expected until 2025.

Due to a reduction in loss-making volumes, Morgan Stanley raises EPS forecasts by 18.1% for 2024 and 7.9% for 2025.

The target price increases by 5c to 35c, with an Equal-weight rating and an Industry View of "Attractive."

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.29 Difference: $0.06
If SYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.57, suggesting upside of 102.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TPG as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley retains an Underweight rating on TPG Telecom, with a target price of $4.40.

The broker acknowledges the asset sale will enable TPG to reduce gearing and allow for a capital return; however, the analyst believes the loss of structural growth assets (fibre) could lead investors to derate the company.

The new business structure will be ex-fibre, with TPG holding the number three position in mobile.

Target price remains at $4.40, with an Underweight rating and an Industry view of "In-Line."

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.51 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If TPG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.88, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WBC as Sell (5) -

Citi’s first take on Westpac’s FY24 results shows a performance broadly in line with consensus estimates and the broker’s forecast.

The bank reported lower-than-expected bad and doubtful debts, which offset slightly weaker-than-expected earnings.

Citi highlights positive momentum across business divisions: mortgages grew at 1.2x system rate, business lending increased 9% through new accounts and merchant acquisition, and institutional lending rose 9%, with net interest margins up 4bps excluding markets.

Westpac declared a 78c final dividend per share, with no special dividend for 2H25, but announced a $1bn incremental buyback.

Overall, Citi views the result as "neutral." Target price $24.75. Sell rated.

Target price is $24.75 Current Price is $32.10 Difference: minus $7.35 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.92, suggesting downside of -13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WBC as Neutral (3) -

UBS assesses an in-line FY24 result for Westpac today, in an initial glance, though the lack of a 2H special dividend may disappoint the market. An announced $1bn buyback may offset some of the disappointment, note the analysts.

Diluted EPS of 109cps compared to forecasts by the broker and consensus for 95cps and 110cps, respectively, while the final 76 cent fully-franked dividend missed the consensus forecast for 86 cents.

The group net interest margin (NIM) increased by 8bps to 1.97% (consensus forecast 1.95%). Underlying NIM trends look
encouraging to UBS though a period of higher-than-expected cost growth might be a headwind.

Neutral. Target $33.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $32.10 Difference: $0.9
If WBC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.92, suggesting downside of -13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources