Australian Broker Call

Citi rates AMC as Buy (1) -

Citi reaffirms Amcor as one of its top picks in the current uncertain macro backdrop, noting the margin support in the near term and fewer linkages to macro trends.

The broker highlights resin costs have been subdued and there may be a near-term benefit because of the lag in contractual pass-through. 

At the same time, the analyst made -2% downgrades to 3Q25 estimates to factor in some macro headwinds. The Berry Global deal completion is expected to be a catalyst for mid-2025, with US/China regulatory hurdles cleared.

Buy. Target unchanged at $19.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $14.65 Difference: $4.35
If AMC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.88, suggesting upside of 16.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AMP as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi notes AMP's 1Q25 flows were largely positive, but the stock faces headwinds from superannuation class action and uncertain equity markets, which would put pressure on assets under management and fees.

The broker cut EPS forecast for FY25 by -3% and for FY26 by -4%.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Neutral on value opportunity. Target cut to $1.30 from $1.60.

The broker believes the 2c/share dividend guidance for each FY25 half reflects caution ahead of the class action in May.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.155
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.49, suggesting upside of 28.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Buy (1) -

BHP Group 3Q25 report was largely in line with Citi's estimates, with Met Coal the only key commodity to fall short on impact from weather and geotech. 

The company maintained guidance range across all operations, and, within that, some were upgraded to the upper half, and Samarco to the upper end.

Citi notes the company is on track to meet FY25 unit cost guidance, except BMA, which is affected by weather and geotech challenges.

Buy. Target unchanged at $45.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $36.48 Difference: $8.52
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.87, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

BHP Group reported better-than-expected copper production, up 5% for 3Q25, while iron ore was in line with consensus estimates, Macquarie observes.

BHP Mitsubishi coal came in below expectations by -5% due to weather, and NSW Energy Coal was better than anticipated by 4%.

Escondida increased copper production by 400kt for FY27–FY31 with the extension of the Los Colorados life beyond FY29, and Macquarie raises the group copper production forecast by 3% for FY25, 11% for FY26, and 5% for FY29–FY31, with demolition capex deferred until FY31.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and $42 target price, and tweaks EPS estimates.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $36.48 Difference: $5.52
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.87, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BHP as Add (1) -

Morgans highlights a strong March quarter for BHP Group, led by a material copper production beat and resilient iron ore volumes from WAIO despite cyclone disruptions.

Copper production rose 20% year-on-year and is now tracking toward the upper end of FY25 guidance, with Escondida’s medium-term outlook upgraded to sustain 900kt-1mtpa from FY27 to FY31.

BMA coal faced headwinds from severe weather and operational challenges, resulting in a production shortfall and an upward revision to FY25 unit cost guidance, explain the analysts.

Morgans raises the target price to $48.70 from $48.10 and maintains an Add rating.

Target price is $48.70 Current Price is $36.48 Difference: $12.22
If BHP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.87, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett details BHP Group reported a better-than-anticipated 3Q25 result, with all commodities performing well except met coal, which was impacted by weather in Queensland and geotechnical problems.

Costs for iron ore, energy coal, and copper were all in line with expectations and aligned with meeting FY25 guidance. Met coal costs are likely to be higher due to the weather.

Copper was the standout, beating forecasts by 5%, the analyst explains, due to Escondida experiencing a rise in ore mined and improved ore grades, alongside improved mill throughput.

Management has upgraded the medium-term production outlook for Escondida with the extension of the life of the Los Colorados processing mill beyond FY29.

Accumulate rating and $42 target unchanged. Ord Minnett lifts EPS estimates by 1.4% for FY25 and trims the FY26 estimate by -0.2%.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $36.48 Difference: $5.52
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.87, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BOQ as Sell (5) -

After a full review of Bank of Queensland's 1H25 result, Citi analysts lifted FY25 cash earnings forecast by 4% on lower bad debt expense and cost control.

However, forecasts for FY26-27 earnings were cut by -3% mainly on lower net interest income. Importantly, the broker's estimate for the cost-to-income ratio for FY26 is 63% vs the bank's guidance of 56%.

Sell. Target unchanged at $6.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $7.18 Difference: minus $1.18 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.15, suggesting downside of -15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CAR as Add (1) -

Morgans conducts a review of CAR Group at the half way point of the 2H of FY25, noting the 1H theme of ongoing strong inventory levels has largely persisted.

The broker remains attracted to the long-term growth opportunity for the group both domestically and offshore, with operations now
in the US, Latin America and Korea.

The target slips to $40.80 from $41.40. Add.

Target price is $40.80 Current Price is $32.68 Difference: $8.12
If CAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.30, suggesting upside of 29.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CGF as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter describes a mixed March quarter for Challenger, with life sales of $1.4bn, down from $2.2bn in the December quarter, but strong year-on-year growth in lifetime and Japanese annuities of 22% and 33%, respectively.

Group assets under management fell -4% to $125.6bn, with life flows negative for a third consecutive quarter.

Positively, within Challenger index plus, the company secured a $500m annuities mandate to be funded over the next two quarters, notes the broker.

The Funds Management division experienced negative investment returns and outflows, highlight the analysts, with funds under management (FUM) down by -5% to $115.2bn due to negative market movements and outflows of -$1.9bn.

The $7.80 target and Buy rating are unchanged.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $6.80 Difference: $1
If CGF meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.29, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CGF as Buy (1) -

In the March quarter update, Challenger tightened FY25 net profit guidance range to $450-465m range from $440-480m, which Citi believes is a reflection of confidence in delivering profit despite volatile markets.

The broker marginally cut its forecast to $459m from $460m earlier. Overall, the broker views the small rise in capital ratio (1.62 times, up 0.01x) as offering resilience, with regulatory capital change likely to offer further tailwind.

Small downward revisions to FY25-26 EPS forecasts on adjustments to life sales, book growth and FUM.

Buy. Target rises to $7.55 from $6.70 as the broker removed the -10% valuation discount. 

Target price is $7.55 Current Price is $6.80 Difference: $0.75
If CGF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.29, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CGF as Add (1) -

Management at Challenger has narrowed FY25 net profit guidance to $450-465m from $440-480m, implying to Morgans stronger confidence in current earnings momentum.

For Q3, retail annuity sales rose 2% year-on-year to $604m and institutional annuity sales climbed to $147m from $49m, although total Life net book growth fell -0.9% over the quarter.

Assets under management (AUM) declined by -4% to $126bn due to negative market movements and weak Challenger Index Plus flows, explains the analyst.

Morgans expects structural growth drivers to persist, including the launch of a retirement income partnership with NGS Super from 2026, which adds longevity-linked annuity exposure.

Morgans raises the target price to $7.51 from $6.93 largely due to a valuation roll-forward and maintains an Add rating.

Target price is $7.51 Current Price is $6.80 Difference: $0.71
If CGF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.29, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CGF as Buy (1) -

Challenger updated the market with a tightening of the FY25 guidance range for net profit, which suggests 10% growth on FY24, Ord Minnett explains.

The company also reported a more robust capital position than anticipated in the March quarter update, and the more upbeat tone came despite an annuity net outflow of -$180m and a decline in funds under management of -5%, due to market volatility.

The analyst notes sales of the retail lifetime product advanced by 22% due to a bigger contribution from its Japanese market distributors.

Buy rating reiterated due to potential changes in Australian retirement policies, which could make annuities a more attractive option, with an $8 target price.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $6.80 Difference: $1.2
If CGF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.29, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CPU as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley considers the impact of market volatility on Computershare, explaining the analyst expects corporate activity and transactional revenues in share plans to weaken by -US$60m in FY26.

Offsetting, the decline the broker believes Computershare can achieve expected margin income for FY25 of US$760m guidance due to relatively stable rates and improved balances.

In FY26, margin income is anticipated to decline slightly to US$734m as interest rate yields are forecast to weaken by -30bps overall.

As the company reports in US dollars, the currency weakness against multiple currencies is an EPS tailwind of around 4 points annualised, and accordingly, the broker lifts EPS estimates by around 1.5% for FY25 and 2% for FY26.

The target price slips to $34.70 from $36.60. No change to Equal-weight rating. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $34.70 Current Price is $38.19 Difference: minus $3.49 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $38.67, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GMD as Hold (3) -

March quarter production of 59.2koz for Genesis Minerals was well ahead of Bell Potter's expectations, partly supported by strong ore purchases and above-resource grade performance at Laverton.

Costs (AISC) were reported at $2,323/oz, while the realised gold price reached $4,496/oz, lifting the closing cash position by $111m to $348m.

FY25 guidance for production of between 190-210koz at a cost (AISC) in the range of $2,200-2,400/oz was reiterated, and Bell Potter has upgraded its production estimate to the top end of the range.

The broker highlights long-term upside from the recently released 65mt at 2.1gold/t Production Target, equating to 4.5moz, a 36% increase on the previous Ore Reserve estimate.

Bell Potter raises FY25 EPS forecast by 24% and increases its valuation to reflect incremental upside from the Production Target, while noting expansion to 400kozpa is likely achievable with modest mill upgrades. 

Bell Potter raises the target price to $4.45 from $3.75 and retains a Hold rating.

Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $4.37 Difference: $0.08
If GMD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.20, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GMD as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett downgrades Genesis Minerals to Hold from Accumulate, with a target price set at $4.15 from $3.75.

The company announced a mixed quarterly report, according to the broker, with production better than forecast by 10%, offset by higher-than-anticipated costs, some 6% above forecast.

Genesis is tracking to exceed FY25 production guidance and all-in sustaining costs, with the broker stating possible upside of 5%, despite management retaining FY25 guidance.

With the stock up by 130% over the last 12 months, Ord Minnett envisages few reasons for the level of outperformance to continue.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $4.37 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If GMD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.20, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHX as Neutral (3) -

March quarter results from James Hardie Industries' strategic partner in the US, D.R. Horton, showed a -15% year-on-year decline in homes closed and a similar fall in net orders.

This compares with the consensus for volume growth from 1Q26 from James Hardie, Citi highlights, while also recognising the stock may already be pricing in a downgrade amid a challenging consumer demand outlook.

The broker sees an increasing risk to the 2.8x pro-forma leverage goal from the company's merger with Azek.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $56.

Target price is $56.00 Current Price is $34.95 Difference: $21.05
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $52.74, suggesting upside of 55.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates KAR as Add (1) -

Morgans describes Karoon Energy's March quarter result as solid, with production marginally ahead of expectations despite a planned maintenance shutdown at the Bauna operation.

Excluding the shutdown, uptime for the Bauna floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) facility reached 92.3%, up from 84.6% in the previous quarter.

The Neon field has progressed into the define phase, prompting a circa 6% increase in FY25 capex, though full-year production and cost guidance remains unchanged, observes the broker.

Morgans lowers the target price to $2.25 from $2.40 and retains an Add rating. 

Short-term headwinds to oil demand stemming from macroeconomic uncertainty linked to “Trade War 2.0” and accelerated supply from OPEC Plus have reduced Morgans’ near-term conviction in the outlook for oil.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $1.34 Difference: $0.91
If KAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.17, suggesting upside of 66.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates LM8 as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners assesses strong drill results by Lunnon Metals at Lady Herial.

The results include 13m at 10.29 gold/t, 27m at 4.01gold/t, and 19m at 5.37gold/t with a maiden resource targeted for the June quarter and development scheduled for the September quarter.

The broker sees the shallow, high-grade nature of mineralisation as conducive to a low-cost, rapid start-up, potentially generating $70-90m gross cash flow at current gold prices if 15-20koz can be produced.

This value is not reflected in the current market capitalisation, point out the analysts.

The $17.8m cash balance as at March end supports near-term development plans, with additional third-party processing options also available, notes Shaw.

A Buy rating and a 60c target price are maintained.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.34
If LM8 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 131% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MQG as Sell (5) -

Citi highlights Macquarie Group's announcement to sell the North American and European public investments business to Nomura for $2.8bn, which boosts existing excess capital of around $3bn excluding hybrids on the balance sheet.

The transaction is expected to be completed by the end of 2025, with a small impact in 4Q26, the analyst expects.

Citi believes the sale will refocus Macquarie Asset Management on its competitive strengths, including private markets and the domestic market, where it retains the public investments business.

The sale makes sense to the analyst given the lack of returns since acquiring Waddell & Reed in 2020, where public base fees have declined by around -13% and assets under management rose by 6%. The key question now is how the capital will be allocated.

The Sell rating and $177 target are maintained. Macquarie Group is due report its results on May 9.

Target price is $177.00 Current Price is $179.82 Difference: minus $2.82 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $206.31, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MQG as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes the sale of Macquarie Group's US and European public investments business and stresses the move strengthens the group's strategic shift to focus on private markets, with only slight earnings implications.

The $2.8bn all-cash sale to Nomura is subject to regulatory approval and is expected to be finalised by the end of 2025.

Public Investments generates around 20% of Macquarie Asset Management's (MAM) net profit, and management is divesting around 55% of MAM's assets under management.

UBS estimates this translates to a forecast net impact on profit after tax of around $100m, or 2–2.5% of group earnings.

Neutral rated. Target $235. The broker's earnings forecasts for FY25/FY26 sit around -5% to -10% below consensus.

Target price is $235.00 Current Price is $179.82 Difference: $55.18
If MQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $206.31, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MVF as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Ord Minnett upgrades Monash IVF to Buy from Hold, with a target price set at $1.10, down from $1.25, following the -30% decline in the share price after the embryo mix-up at its Brisbane clinic last week and a wave of negative media coverage.

Unfortunately, this is not an isolated incident in the global IVF industry, the analyst explains, noting that since 1973, an estimated 60m IVF cycles have been performed, with 205 "severe" incidents documented, around 80% in the US, and embryo mix-ups accounting for approximately 75% of these incidents.

Some 76 legal suits with $4.4m in damages were the result. Despite this, US IVF cycles have expanded at over twice the rate of Australia’s over the last ten years, Ord Minnett explains.

The broker lowers FY26–FY27 EPS estimates by -11% and -9%, respectively.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $0.72 Difference: $0.53
If MVF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.42, suggesting upside of 102.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PLS as Buy (1) -

Pilbara Minerals delivered a March quarter update broadly in line with Bell Potter's expectations. Production and sales volumes were disrupted by P1000 project tie-ins and six days lost due to cyclone activity, explain the analysts.

FY25 production guidance of 700-740kt was reiterated, with the broker modelling towards the upper end of the range.

The P1000 project is targeted to reach nameplate capacity in the current quarter. Bell Potter highlights ongoing progress at the P680 and P1000 expansion projects, which remain on track, and expects long-term volume growth to underpin value. 

The Buy rating and $2.00 target are maintained.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $0.57
If PLS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.91, suggesting upside of 36.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PLS as Buy (1) -

Citi notes Pilbara Minerals' 3Q25 report was weak quarter-on-quarter, but this was expected due to P1000 tie-in and ramp-up, and cyclone impacts.

Operating costs beat consensus, and the company reiterated FY25 guidance across all metrics.

Buy. Target cut to $1.60 from $1.65.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $0.17
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.91, suggesting upside of 36.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as Outperform (1) -

According to Macquarie, Pilbara Minerals reported 3Q25 production and sales of 125kt each, which were below consensus expectations by -12% on both counts. Production fell on the previous quarter by -34% due to Ngungaju transitioning to care and maintenance.

Over the period, the company completed the acquisition of Latin Resources and has started a specific exploration program, including the target to infill the existing resource, expand it, and test new targets, the broker explains.

Outperform rating is retained due to potential for capital management and possible cost-outs. Target price $2.40. FY25 EPS forecast by the broker is lowered by -7%.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $0.97
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.91, suggesting upside of 36.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PLS as Add (1) -

Morgans observes Pilbara Minerals' March quarter performance was disrupted by ramp-up and tie-in activities, although FY25 guidance was maintained and the P1000 project continues to progress in line with expectations.

The broker expects operational improvements to emerge in the June quarter and sees Pilbara Minerals as better positioned than peers due to its scale and long-term expansion strategy.

Morgans retains an Add rating and lowers the target price to $2.30 from $2.40.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $0.87
If PLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.91, suggesting upside of 36.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates REA as Hold (3) -

Morgans conducts a review of REA Group at the half way point of the 2H of FY25, noting the 1H theme of a resilient new listings
environment has largely persisted.

The broker reiterates the group's strong market position and growth opportunities (both domestic and offshore) and continues to look for an attractive entry point. Hold and $248 target maintained.

Target price is $248.00 Current Price is $239.99 Difference: $8.01
If REA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $269.43, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RGN as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights Region Group's 3Q25 update showed solid operational momentum, with leasing spreads rising to 4% vs 2.1% during 1H. 

The company recorded 90 new leases with an average rise of 4%, pushing year-to-date leasing spreads to 2.6% from 2.1% by the end of 1H.

Two shopping centres were sold for $94m, and the proceeds will go towards lowering group debt and share buy-back. The company reiterated FY25 guidance.

Buy. Target unchanged at $2.40.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.22 Difference: $0.18
If RGN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.25, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates S32 as Buy (1) -

Citi describes South32's 3Q25 report as solid, with net cash rising US$299m to US$252m from strong operating performance and partial unwind of working capital.

Alumina/aluminium production was in line with the broker's forecasts but Cannington and South Africa manganese missed due to wealther-related disruption and planned maintenance, respectively. The company maintained FY25 guidance for all operations, exception Cannington which it cut by -10%.

Buy. Target unchanged at $4.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $2.69 Difference: $1.31
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.84, suggesting upside of 47.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie explains South32 reported lower-than-consensus 3Q25 results for copper, by -3%, silver by -25%, lead by -33%, zinc by -15%, and manganese by -30%. In contrast, aluminium was higher by 2% and nickel by 1%.

Management lowered guidance for Cannington by -10% to 239kt of zinc equivalent, with cost rises of 11% due to geotechnical issues.

The broker notes a fatality at Sierra Gorda in April was not reported, and such incidents at non-managed JVs should be disclosed regardless of which entity has operational control.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating with a $4.50 target price. EPS estimates are tweaked lower by around -1% to -3% for FY26–FY27, with the FY25 forecast down by -9%.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $2.69 Difference: $1.81
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.84, suggesting upside of 47.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates S32 as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes South32 met or beat consensus for alumina, aluminium and nickel production in the March quarter but fell short for copper, zinc, silver, lead, manganese and nickel.

The company reiterated FY25 guidance for all, except its silver and lead operations in Cannington. Cash flow rose US$299m to end the quarter with a cash balance of US$252m on a one-off $100m receipt from Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and improved operating performance.

The broker cut EPS forecast for FY25 and FY26 by -8.7% and -4.1%, respectively, mainly on account of volume and cost issues at Cannington.

Buy. Target trimmed to $4.20 from $4.30.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $2.69 Difference: $1.51
If S32 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.84, suggesting upside of 47.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SEK as Add (1) -

Morgans conducts a review of Seek at the half way point of the 2H of FY25 noting the 1H theme of an ongoing normalisation of the company's job ad volumes has largely persisted.

The broker has noticed some recent improvements in terms of volumes and applications per job.

Add maintained. Target is steady at $27.20.

Target price is $27.20 Current Price is $20.35 Difference: $6.85
If SEK meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.01, suggesting upside of 42.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Santos reported 1Q25 production of 21.9mboe and revenue of US$1,294m, which were lower than forecast by -1%, with Cooper Basin flooding expected to impact the second quarter and possibly the third, the analyst explains.

Currently, there are no expectations that management will lower production guidance, although guidance was lowered in 2010 due to flooding by -3.8% at the midpoint.

Free cash flow of US$465m was better than expected and capex came in lower, Macquarie stresses, with sustaining capex rising only 20% compared to original projections of 28% for the full year.

The analyst lowers EPS estimates by -3.7% for 2025 due to lower expectations around Cooper Basin in anticipation of flooding impacts.

Outperform maintained. Target price slips -1% to $8.50.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $5.65 Difference: $2.85
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.66, suggesting upside of 36.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates STO as Buy (1) -

Santos described the 1Q25 report as challenging but reaffirmed FY25 guidance for production and sales. The company also maintained FY25 guidance for cost, though noted it will be elevated in the 1H and decline in the 2H.

Ord Minnett cut EPS forecasts for FY25 by -3.9% and for FY26 by -0.3% following the result. The broker notes key catalysts are due in the year ahead, with the Barossa oil and gas project more than 95% complete and due for production in the September quarter.

The Pikka oil and gas project is due to come on stream in mid-2026, but could start at the end of 2025 if weather and logistics assist in an acceleration.

Buy. Target unchanged at $8.20.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $5.65 Difference: $2.55
If STO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.66, suggesting upside of 36.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TCL as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes Transurban Group's 3Q25 traffic update shows a 1.8% y/y rise, with NSW slightly down sequentially but Melbourne higher, and North American traffic maintaining decent growth. Brisbane was lower but this was expected due to the cyclone impact.

The broker highlights the company is a defensive exposure in an uncertain macro environment but some downside pressure to near-term cash flow is likely. FY25 dividend forecast cut slightly on lower traffic forecast, but FY26-27 lifted as higher traffic is expected to offset higher finance costs.

Next catalyst NSW toll review.

Neutral retained. Target rises to $14.00 from $13.80.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $13.86 Difference: $0.14
If TCL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.53, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TCL as Hold (3) -

Morgans highlights Transurban Group's 3Q25 update showed continued traffic improvement. The broker incorporated the update and recent Euro debt issuance into the forecasts.

The analyst is forecasting 9% compounded annual EBITDA growth across FY25-28 but a lower 5% growth in free cash flow due to higher interest rate expenses. This is due to the assumption of corporate tax payments and higher interest rates, plus expensing of interest rates vs capitalisation.

For FY25, free cash forecast is lifted by 1% but lowered across FY26-27.

Hold. Target rises marginally to $12.65 from $12.64 based on DCF valuation at mid-2026.

Target price is $12.65 Current Price is $13.86 Difference: minus $1.21 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.53, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates THL as Buy (1) -

Tourism Holdings stated the geopolitical and tariff developments have hurt consumer confidence and is impacting the operating environment for its businesses. As a result, it expects FY25 net profit to be lower than the consensus of $45.2m.

Ord Minnett notes the company had to emphasise it doesn't need to raise equity because the banking covenants are in a comfortable position. The broker's own view is that balance sheet risk is low.

Given the soft trading environment, the broker lowered estimates, resulting in a -25% downgrade to FY25 EPS forecast and a -19% cut to FY26.

Buy. Target lowered to NZ$2.92 from NZ$3.07.

Current Price is $1.33. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $1.73, suggesting upside of 29.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WAF as Outperform (1) -

West African Resources pre-released most of the March quarter production numbers, with gold at 50koz and sales of 48koz at an average sales price of US$2,832/oz, while Macquarie highlights all-in sustaining costs of US$1,262/oz came in much better than anticipated by 11%.

Increased spending at the Kiaka development lifted net debt to $128m, some $68m more than expected, and around $75m is required to achieve first gold, the analyst explains.

Management's 2025 guidance came in at gold production of 190–210koz from Sanbrado, with consensus at 198koz, and all-in sustaining costs of over US$1,350/oz. The broker notes 1Q25 production is around 25% at the midpoint.

Group production guidance of 290–360koz for 2025 includes a contribution from Kiaka, which is anticipated to start in 2H25.

No change to the Outperform rating. Target price increases by 4% to $2.80. EPS forecasts are raised slightly.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: $0.38
If WAF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources