Australian Broker Call

Citi rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

Citi is surprised at the timing of the $1.5bn buyback announcement by ANZ Bank, given continuing covid uncertainty, regulatory relief by APRA and an expected rise in deferred loan balances.

The unusual timing suggests to the broker that the bank saw an advantage in moving now and beating the other major banks to the punch. The analyst now incorporates $1.5bn in the second half forecast, for a cumulative $9bn in buybacks over three years.

Citi's retains its Neutral rating and $29.50 target price.

Target price is $29.50 Current Price is $27.15 Difference: $2.35
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.00, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley observes capital management is starting earlier than expected. ANZ Bank has announced it will start a $1.5bn on-market share buyback in August. Based on the current share price, the broker calculates it would reduce shares on issue by -1.9%.

The capital position of the bank is far stronger than it was a year ago and the decision follows an announcement by APRA that it would provide regulatory relief for banks that allow borrowers affected by the pandemic to defer loan repayments.

The broker believes the buyback announcement should make investors more confident in the majors' capacity to start buybacks although a more prudent approach may be warranted in terms of larger-off-market buybacks.

Equal-weight rating, $28 target maintained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $27.15 Difference: $0.85
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.00, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ANZ as Accumulate (2) -

Broadly consistent with Ord Minnett’s expectations, ANZ Bank announced an initial $1.5bn on-market buyback to commence in August. The company said its capital position may allow future capital returns. 

In total, the broker forecasts $4.5bn of on-market buybacks for the bank over the next three halves.

The analyst feels the announcement may have surprised the market, given concerns around the current lockdowns in NSW and Victoria, and the announcement of relief from APRA for covid-19 deferral programs.The broker maintains its Accumulate rating and $30 target price.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $27.15 Difference: $2.85
If ANZ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.00, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AWC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley observes the market overreacted to the increased cost of production in the recent quarterly numbers, which was largely attributed to the impact of the Willowdale crusher at the Western Australian operations.

Rising caustic prices are usually beneficial to the arbitrage opportunities for the company's alumina exports to China, the broker points out, given its lower intensity of use.

Morgan Stanley decreases estimates for 2021 earnings amid elevated costs, which are expected to continue for the remainder of the year.

Overweight rating. Industry view: Attractive. Target is $2.15.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.55 Difference: $0.6
If AWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.83, suggesting upside of 19.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CIM as Buy (1) -

In anticipation of CIMIC Group's first-half result on Wednesday, 21 July, Ord Minnett highlights potential key areas of focus. This includes the recent decision to ban all construction and non-essential maintenance in Greater Sydney.

The broker forecasts net profit 3% above guidance, and has lifted revenue growth estimates for future years, as contract awards have tracked positively for the company in the year to date.

The analyst explains an offset to the above is a tempering of margin expectations, which leads to modest downgrades to earnings expectations. Ord Minnett retains its Buy rating and $29 target price.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $18.98 Difference: $10.02
If CIM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.91, suggesting upside of 25.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COE as Neutral (3) -

First quarter production was slightly better than Macquarie expected, because of stronger margins. The company has approved the phase 2B works at Orbost and remains hopeful this will increase production rates.

The broker's primary concern centres on the forward capital commitments and the performance of Sole following the phase 2B works will also be important. Neutral retained. Target is reduced to $0.29 from $0.31.

Target price is $0.29 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.04
If COE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.35, suggesting upside of 46.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates COE as Equal-weight (3) -

Cooper Energy has delivered production results that were weaker than Morgan Stanley expected, while this was offset by higher sales volumes given an increase in purchases of third-party gas.

The main risk, the broker observes, is the upcoming Basker Manta abandonment program. The broker assesses Cooper Energy will need to expand its debt facilities, as debt increases significantly in 2022 given the outlay required for the abandonment.

Equal-weight retained. Target is $0.34. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $0.34 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.09
If COE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.35, suggesting upside of 46.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates COE as Add (1) -

After fourth quarter results, Morgans increases the FY21 earnings (EBITDA) forecast by 10% though the FY22 Sole production forecast was trimmed, resulting in the FY22 earnings forecast reducing by -10%.

When also factoring-in an increase in net debt, the broker lowers its target price to $0.34 from $0.36. While Sole and its troubled Orbost plant remain the key focus, the company appears oversold relative to the risks, according to the analyst.

Target price is $0.34 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.09
If COE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.35, suggesting upside of 46.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COE as Buy (1) -

The most pleasing aspect for Ord Minnett of Cooper Energy's quarterly result was the strong realised gas price, which rose 8% on the prior period. The analyst highlights the company is the cheapest of the exploration and production companies under Ord Minnett's coverage.

Management has provided APA Group ((APA)) with approvals to undertake capital works to improve performance and reliability at
the Orbost gas plant. Initial testing on the scope of work have been encouraging, according to the company.

The broker lowers its price target to $0.45 from $0.46 and maintains its Buy rating. It's believed there could be corporate appeal, given the company’s low valuation.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.2
If COE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 80% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.35, suggesting upside of 46.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates COH as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

After a strong performance over the year to date, Morgan Stanley downgrades Cochlear to Equal-weight from Overweight.

The broker suspects it is better to own stocks with more reasonable valuations along with near-term business momentum. Target is raised to $230 from $227. Industry view: In-Line.

Morgan Stanley notes ASX200 healthcare valuations are at record highs and over the last five years have traded at an average 61% premium to the ASX200 ex financials, while the current premium is 99%.

This reflects the lack of growth in the largest contributor, CSL ((CSL)) in FY22, with investors backing a strong FY23 rebound.

Target price is $230.00 Current Price is $241.32 Difference: minus $11.32 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $217.30, suggesting downside of -9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes ASX200 healthcare valuations are at record highs and over the last five years have traded at an average 61% premium to the ASX200 ex financials, while the current premium is 99%.

This reflects the lack of growth in the largest contributor, CSL in FY22, with investors backing a strong FY23 rebound. The broker asserts the high-growth offshore earners present valuation challenges and are priced for "unlikely perfection".

Moreover, FY22 guidance from CSL could disappoint. Morgan Stanley retains an Equal-weight rating and raises the target to $271 from $267. In-Line industry view.

Target price is $271.00 Current Price is $282.74 Difference: minus $11.74 (current price is over target).
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $302.01, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DTL as Hold (3) -

Data#3 expects to report FY21 profit (PBT) of $36.8m, which is circa -8% below Morgans forecast for $39.9m. This was due to timing delays caused by global chip shortages, which caused delivery delays to customers in the fourth quarter, explains the analyst.

The broker reduces FY21 and FY22 EPS forecasts by -8% and -9%, though this has been more than offset by rolling the valuation forward by twelve months. Morgans lifts its target price to $5.90 from $5.75 and maintains its Hold rating.

Forward indicators suggest these chip delays are unlikely be resolved in the next 12-18 months, notes the analyst. Consequently, a catchup in FY22 is not expected.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $5.33 Difference: $0.57
If DTL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates EDV as Initiation of coverage with Underperform (5) -

Credit Suisse initiates coverage on Endeavour Group with an Underperform rating and sets a target price of $5.86. The rating is driven by the company's variable profit history, capital intensity, wide range for potential profits and hotel gaming regulatory risks. 

The broker acknowledges upside risks as the second half performance in retail liquor is likely to be very strong, and pubs gaming activity has the potential to recover strongly, following a period of venue restrictions.

With declining per-capita consumption of alcohol and an already high market share, achieving strong returns with an expansionary liquor retail strategy is challenging, notes the analyst. Also, expansion of Hotels is generally via acquisition and considered to achieve low returns. 

Target price is $5.86 Current Price is $6.43 Difference: minus $0.57 (current price is over target).
If EDV meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ELD as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

UBS initiates coverage with a Buy rating and $12.79 target. The broker considers Elders a high-quality stock centred on the improving Australian agricultural cycle and forecasts a compound 10% three-year earnings growth rate.

The stock is currently trading at a discount to the ASX Small Industrials of around -35% compared with a through-cycle discount of -20%. Therefore, the broker considers this discount too great as it does not reflect the growth outlook and the company's diversified position in the industry.

Target price is $12.79 Current Price is $11.32 Difference: $1.47
If ELD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.03, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HLS as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes ASX200 healthcare valuations are at record highs and over the last five years have traded at an average 61% premium to the ASX200 ex financials, while the current premium is 99%.

This reflects the lack of growth in the largest contributor, CSL ((CSL)) in FY22, with investors backing a strong FY23 rebound.

Updated covid-19 testing assumptions drive upgrades to the broker's earnings estimates for Healius which also benefits from an ongoing share buyback.

Equal-weight retained. Target rises to $4.65 from $3.95. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $4.75 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If HLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.53, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HUM as Outperform (1) -

Cash net profit is now expected to be $68.4m, below forecasts, while transaction volumes for FY21 were ahead of expectations.

There was little explanation provided and the gaps in disclosure give rise to risks around the composition of the report heading into the August results, Macquarie asserts.

Still, with volume showing signs of recovery the broker envisages upside from current levels and retains an Outperform rating. Target is reduced to $1.25 from $1.30.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.06 Difference: $0.19
If HUM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.32, suggesting upside of 27.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HUM as Buy (1) -

FY21 cash net profit of $68.4m missed UBS estimates. The main reason appears to be higher costs related to the international expansion, although the broker awaits further detail from the official results on August 19.

The company has also announced the departure of CFO Jason Murray who will be replaced by Adrian Fisk. UBS reduces net profit forecast by -7-15% over FY22-24. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $1.50 from $1.60.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.06 Difference: $0.44
If HUM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.32, suggesting upside of 27.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IAG as Accumulate (2) -

In a worse outcome than Ord Minnett expected though perhaps not that material to the group, Insurance Australia Group announced it will sell its stake in Malaysia-based insurer AMGeneral Holdings. The outcome was considered to be at a low price.

Nonetheless, the broker sees a positive, in that it might free-up management time for the core businesses in A&NZ. Ord Minnett retains its Buy rating and $5.30 target price.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.83 Difference: $0.47
If IAG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.43, suggesting upside of 12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JHX as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett's FY22 net profit estimate of US$566m sits at the top-end of management’s range (US$520-570m). It's believed management may choose to raise the bottom-end of the range by US$10-15m. The broker maintains its Accumulate rating, with a $48 target price.

The analyst looks forward to the company's update on the expected cost impact of the group's cost of goods sold inflation, at the first quarter result on 10 August.

Ord Minnett expects a meaningful impact in FY22, though pulp and freight benchmarks have turned lower off high levels. Pallets, however, have continued to move higher, notes the broker.

Target price is $48.00 Current Price is $45.31 Difference: $2.69
If JHX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $46.11, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NGI as Buy (1) -

After the recent quarterly update, Ord Minnett notes performance added over US$350m to assets under management (AUM), which was slightly offset by net outflows of -1%.

The broker highlights the diversified fund delivered 8.59% in absolute terms over the first half of 2021. The analyst likes the value
proposition, owing to a positive outlook for fund flows, as well as the potential for more accretive transactions.

Ord Minnett retains its Buy rating and $2.40 target price. The FY22 unfranked dividend yield is considered attractive.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $1.66 Difference: $0.74
If NGI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NHC as Buy (1) -

Citi raises 2021 benchmark thermal coal forecasts to US$112/t from US$88/t and raises the 2022 forecast by US$5/t to US$80/t. This sees the broker's FY22 EPS forecast for New Hope Corporation's rise by 65%.

The broker's price target is unchanged at $2.10 and is struck off largely unchanged FY23 EPS forecasts. However, with FY21 and FY22 dividends raised, the 12 month estimated total return is 27%. Citi maintains its Buy rating.

The broker's forecast FY22 dividend rises to 25 cents, at a payout ratio of 65%, for a yield of around 14%.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.85 Difference: $0.25
If NHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.12, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OSH as Neutral (3) -

CEO Keiran Wulff has resigned and the new CFO Peter Fredricson will take on the role of acting CEO. He has withdrawn guidance around the timing of the sell down in Alaska to focus on value optimisation.

Macquarie anticipates new management will be less connected to the Alaskan oil asset compared with will Dr Wulff and more willing, therefore, to make difficult decisions about reducing exposure.

Prior to the Alaskan acquisition the broker believes Oil Search was the most attractive oil & gas takeover target in the Asia-Pacific region, observing that natural owners of PNG gas/LNG assets are unlikely to be natural owners of Alaskan oil.

Target is reduced to $3.95 from $4.15. Neutral maintained.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $3.67 Difference: $0.28
If OSH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.47, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates OSH as Equal-weight (3) -

Oil Search CEO Kieran Wulff has resigned for health reasons, although the company has reported his management style was inconsistent with board expectations

Morgan Stanley observes the resignation comes at a critical time as Oil Search commences a sales process to sell a stake in its Alaskan oil project.

The issue now is whether the process will be halted until a new CEO comes on board. The broker believes, without an Alaskan sell down, Oil Search is too leveraged.

Equal-weight. Target is $4.50. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.67 Difference: $0.83
If OSH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.47, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates OSH as Add (1) -

Oil Search has announced the sudden departure of CEO Kieran Wulff, attributed to both health reasons and unacceptable behaviour. Management also outlined that it won't be in a position to progress its Alaskan oil project (Pikka development) in the second half of 2021.

The above announcements, while unsettling, do not alter Morgans's view. The broker's Add rating and $4.70 target price are unchanged. The Alaska delay is considered disappointing, given a shortage of near-term catalysts outside Alaska.

Regarding the CEO departure, in the absence of details, the analyst is left wondering if there is any ongoing risk to the culture or the governance profile.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $3.67 Difference: $1.03
If OSH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.47, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PRN as Outperform (1) -

Perenti Global has a new five-year contract at the Iduapriem gold mine in Ghana. Macquarie observes the company continues to transform its African portfolio, with a focus on more secure jurisdictions and contracts with reputable companies.

The contract, worth $280m over the next five years, adds to a significant level of work in hand and a large order book. Margin compression remains a headwind although Macquarie believes much of this is already factored into the price, retaining an Outperform rating and $0.95 target.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.89 Difference: $0.06
If PRN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PSQ as Buy (1) -

Pacific Smiles Group's FY21 update is in-line with prior guidance, with patient fees exceeding Ord Minnett's estimate by 0.2%. The mid-term outlook is considered to remain positive, and the investment thesis remains unchanged.

Underlying earnings (EBITDA) were around -3% below the broker's estimate, likely impacted by the two week Victorian lockdown period in May, and NSW lockdowns in late June.

As was the case in the first half of 2021, most ‘lost’ demand is likely to return into the system upon easing of lockdowns, expects the broker. Ord Minnett retains its Buy rating and lowers its target price to $3.20 from $3.21.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.47 Difference: $0.73
If PSQ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RMD as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes ASX200 healthcare valuations are at record highs and over the last five years have traded at an average 61% premium to the ASX200 ex financials, while the current premium is 99%.

This reflects the lack of growth in the largest contributor, CSL ((CSL)) in FY22, with investors backing a strong FY23 rebound.

The broker also suggests share gains related to the S11 launch for ResMed seem priced in and a lack of inventory means risk is embedded in fourth-quarter expectations.

Equal-weight. Industry view: In-Line. Price target is raised to $30.10 from $27.40.

Target price is $30.10 Current Price is $34.52 Difference: minus $4.42 (current price is over target).
If RMD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.60, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGP as Neutral (3) -

Citi sees the $620m Halcyon acquisition as significantly accelerating the group’s strategy to scale up in land lease. This segment is considered attractive due to structural tailwinds.

The broker retains its Neutral rating, awaiting further information on the direction of the business under a new CEO, and lifts its target price to $4.68 from $4.64. 

Target price is $4.68 Current Price is $4.36 Difference: $0.32
If SGP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.59, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGP as Neutral (3) -

Stockland has acquired land lease community operator Halcyon for $620m, funded by debt. This provides a platform for growth, Macquarie acknowledges and, as Stockland achieves scale it should experience an improvement in both rental operating margins and development margins on the initial portfolio.

Macquarie supports Stockland's entrance into this sub-sector yet, given growth in residential sales is likely to be difficult going forward, retains a Neutral rating. Target is reduced to $4.50 from $4.67.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.36 Difference: $0.14
If SGP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.59, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGP as Overweight (1) -

Stockland will acquire the Halcyon land lease business for $620m, comprising 1500 established sites plus 2300 development sites, the majority of which are in Queensland.

Morgan Stanley estimates Halcyon will generate FY22 operating earnings of $21-22m. Overall, the broker considers the acquisition a positive strategic move given the potential to double Stockland's current land lease settlement target.

Further details are expected at the August 20 results. Overweight rating. Target is $5. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.36 Difference: $0.64
If SGP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.59, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SGP as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett estimates Stockland's acquisition of land lease operator and developer Halcyon for $620m (pre costs), is 1% accretive
to earnings and increases gearing by 2%. The broker maintains its Lighten rating and reduces its target price to $4.20 from $4.30.

In comparison to the previously challenged-retirement business, the broker notes the land lease model has a stronger track record, is a better fit for listed investment and better aligned with the company’s skill set.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.36 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If SGP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.59, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGP as Neutral (3) -

Stockland has acquired Queensland-based Halcyon for $620m, with 50% of the payment deferred until mid 2022. Halcyon has a portfolio of six villages and seven developments.

UBS notes around 33% of the price relates to the rental asset across 1500 completed units, reflecting a 4.5% cap rate versus established precedents of 5.9%.

While the price is elevated, the broker points out the villages are unique and thus deserve a premium for the quality/location. UBS retains a Neutral rating and $4.74 target.

Target price is $4.74 Current Price is $4.36 Difference: $0.38
If SGP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.59, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SHL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes ASX200 healthcare valuations are at record highs and over the last five years have traded at an average 61% premium to the ASX200 ex financials, while the current premium is 99%.

This reflects the lack of growth in the largest contributor, CSL ((CSL)) in FY22, with investors backing a strong FY23 rebound.

Updated covid-19 testing assumptions drive upgrades to the broker's earnings estimates for Sonic Healthcare. Overweight maintained. Target is raised to $39.50 from $38.60. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $39.50 Current Price is $39.84 Difference: minus $0.34 (current price is over target).
If SHL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $37.49, suggesting downside of -5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SRL as Outperform (1) -

The company is continuing to progress with its work on Sunrise, intent on securing access and completing the work scope for electrical and water infrastructure. Now, a second drilling program to test the potential of the Phoenix platinum zone has commenced.

Sunrise Energy has also acquired additional exploration tenements in NSW to expand its nickel and cobalt inventory. Securing a development partner for Sunrise remains the key catalyst, in Macquarie's view. Outperform retained. Target is $2.50.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.91 Difference: $0.59
If SRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SXY as Buy (1) -

Citi makes a modeling update, which has only a minor impact to forecast earnings on an absolute basis. The broker's target price falls to $3.99 from $4.05. 

Target price is $3.99 Current Price is $3.26 Difference: $0.73
If SXY meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.87, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TCL as Buy (1) -

As a result of ongoing lockdowns, Ord Minnett lowers traffic forecasts by -60 basis points (bp) in FY21 and -170bp in FY22. This results in a fall in the broker's free cash flow (FCF) per share estimates, by -1.4% in FY21 and -3% in FY22.

The analyst explains, the impact on FY21 earnings is expected to stem largely from lower traffic numbers at Citylink from Melbourne’s two-week lockdown in June. A majority of the impact from the lockdown in NSW is expected to be seen in the first half of FY22.

Ord Minnett retains its $16 target price and Buy rating.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $14.30 Difference: $1.7
If TCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.35, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TLS as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett makes some minor adjustments to forecasts after Telstra confirmed discussions regarding the potential acquisition of Digicel Pacific, valued at $2bn, in partnership with the Australian government.

The broker estimates such a transaction would be 4-5% EPS accretive, and would increase net present value (NPV) by 3%. Without government support, however, it's believed the transaction would have a negligible impact on NPV.

Ord Minnett maintains its Buy rating and $4.25 target price.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $3.76 Difference: $0.49
If TLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.14, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse has marginally lowered outer-years earnings forecasts, as one of the company's largest US growth brands (Matua), exported from NZ, is facing supply challenges of sauvignon blanc grapes. This comes after the short 2021 Marlborough NZ vintage.

The broker retains its Neutral rating and $11.30 target.

Target price is $11.30 Current Price is $11.95 Difference: minus $0.65 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.94, suggesting downside of -7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources