Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates 360 as Buy (1) -

Third-quarter Hardware revenue for Life360 missed Bell Potter's forecast by -3% due to a delay in a new product launch, but adjusted and statutory earnings (EBITDA) exceeded expectations due to a better gross margin and lower operating expenses.

A key highlight, according to the broker, was record paying circle growth of 159,000 quarter-on-quarter compared to the analysts' forecast of 121,000.

Management raised FY24 adjusted earnings guidance to US$39-42m from US$36-41m.

The target price rises to $26.75 from $22.50, largely due to an increase in the broker's valuation multiple and a lower weighted average cost of capital (WACC) assumption. Buy.

Target price is $26.75 Current Price is $22.39 Difference: $4.36
If 360 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.30, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates 360 as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights Life360's 3Q2024 result showed revenue in line with expectations and EBITDA slightly lower than consensus but meeting the analyst's estimate.

Monthly average users and paying circle growth were higher than expected, with management raising EBITDA guidance.

Morgan Stanley noted some concern over transparency on advertising and hardware delays, with management reducing 2024 revenue guidance.

The Overweight rating and $23 target price remain. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $22.39 Difference: $0.61
If 360 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.30, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates 360 as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes momentum has continued across Life360's core Subscriptions business in Q3 with most metrics beating the broker's forecasts. Subscription revenue of $71.8m beat the broker's $70.5m estimate.

Negatives, according to the analysts, included one-time softness in Hardware (a delay in the new Tile range and discounting to clear inventory) and a lack of positive surprises from Advertising.

Buy rating with a revised target price of $23.14, up from $19.28. 

Target price is $23.14 Current Price is $22.39 Difference: $0.75
If 360 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.30, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALL as Buy (1) -

Aristocrat Leisure's FY24 earnings (EBITA) of $2,121m beat Citi's and consensus forecasts by 1%.

The analysts are now more positive on Social Casino, citing higher-than-expected margins and resilient bookings.

Growth in gaming operations and cost control drove a 2H EBITA margin increase of 260bps, with Citi forecasting an additional 150bps of margin expansion in FY25 due to a favourable mix shift.

The broker's underlying earnings forecasts have increased for Gaming and Digital but are expected to decrease in FY25 and FY26 due to the sale of Plarium, resulting in an unchanged $74 target.

The Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $74.00 Current Price is $66.62 Difference: $7.38
If ALL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $69.75, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes Aristocrat Leisure reported FY24 earnings up 17% year-on-year, meeting consensus.  North America and Pixel United performed better than expected, while land-based rest-of-the-world was below expectations.

North American land-based gaming continues to increase market share in higher-quality/higher-margin premium gaming operations, with 4,400 net installs over the year and market share above 40%, the broker states.

Management provided "vague" guidance, as anticipated.

The broker highlights the company’s high free cash flow generation after capex, expected to reach $1.7bn in FY25, to support further buybacks, estimated at $750m per annum, and a return to net cash flow in FY27 with M&A options.

Considering the sale of Plarium in March, Macquarie has lowered EPS forecasts by -2% in FY25 and -4% in FY26.

The target price rises to $75, up from $67, due to a higher valuation premium ascribed to the stock of 30% versus 15% previously. Outperform rating remains.

Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $66.62 Difference: $8.38
If ALL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $69.75, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlighted FY25 gaming operations have started with robust momentum, with floor trends continuing to support gaming operations for Aristocrat Leisure.

Management pointed to better gaming margins in 2H24 due to cost base leverage as they scale and cycle elevated supply chain costs, with these margins viewed as sustainable into FY25.

Interactive iGaming has 92% access to the North American customer base, with a growing number of game launches in FY25 compared to over 44 in FY24.

The broker notes group cost optimisation is essentially complete, and a strategic review of remaining casual gaming assets is ongoing.

Overweight rating. Target $67. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $67.00 Current Price is $66.62 Difference: $0.38
If ALL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $69.75, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALL as Accumulate (2) -

Aristocrat Leisure's FY24 US game installations exceeded guidance, and operating earnings were a slight beat against the consensus forecast, setting a solid foundation for further EPS growth, according to Ord Minnett.

The broker anticipates rising revenues from Aristocrat's share of winnings from games it licenses or leases to casinos, along with increasing market share in the casino machine replacement market.

The target rises to $72 from $59 after the broker updates forecasts for the results and the sale of Plarium. Accumulate.

Target price is $72.00 Current Price is $66.62 Difference: $5.38
If ALL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $69.75, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AVL as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners suggests revenues from Project Lumina could reach $240m by 2030 and $850m by 2040 for Australian Vanadium, and the broker stresses the market is "severely underestimating" the opportunity.

The analyst explains the company's subsidiary, VSUN Energy, under Project Lumina, will develop a "modular, scalable, turnkey, utility-scale battery energy storage system" using vanadium flow batteries for the Australian market.

Shaw retains a Buy, High Risk rating with a target price of 8c.

Target price is $0.08 Current Price is $0.01 Difference: $0.07
If AVL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 700% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AZJ as Hold (3) -

Management at Aurizon Holdings has reiterated FY25 guidance for both operating earnings and capital expenditure but noted weak volumes in the bulk haulage division.

These volumes were down -20% year-on-year, primarily due to weaker bauxite/alumina and grain shipments in its Western Australian operations, explains the analyst.

The share buyback program was increased by $100m, raising it to $250m for the current fiscal year.

Hold. The target falls to $3.40 from $3.60.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.39 Difference: $0.01
If AZJ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.47, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BCB as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners notes Bowen Coking Coal has successfully raised $70m in capital at 9c per share for the development of the Plumtree mine, prepayment of port and rail capacity, and debt reduction.

The broker states the company is performing well and remains upbeat on the outlook for coking coal, with global steel production continuing to increase.

Shaw and Partners notes the capital raising has allowed Bowen Coking Coal to lower its debt with Taurus and New Hope ((NHC)), alleviating balance sheet and cash flow concerns. Total net debt stands at $70m post-raising.

Buy, High Risk. Target price falls to 4c from 5c due to equity dilution.

Target price is $0.04 Current Price is $0.01 Difference: $0.03
If BCB meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 300% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BRG as Accumulate (2) -

Supporting the outlook for Breville Group, peer De'Longhi (in the Small Domestic Appliance industry) reported a strong 3Q24 result, with underlying sales and margin trends improving.

An acceleration in De'Longhi’s growth mirrors Breville's strong sales momentum from 2H24 which has continued into 1H25, point out the analysts.

The Accumulate rating and $33 target are maintained.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $31.49 Difference: $1.51
If BRG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.73, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CBA as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie observes CommBank reported a "solid" 1Q25 trading update. The broker notes pre-provision earnings were better than expected, up circa 5% quarter-on-quarter due to strong volume growth and stable margins.

The bank reported mortgage growth of around 1.3 times the system and increased its share (ex-Bankwest) to 66%, with channel checks suggesting to the broker competition is rising again.

The broker assesses new mortgage loans are being written above cost but below historical levels. Lower cash rates are expected to impact the bank's margin, with the first cut anticipated in May 2025. The analyst estimates a decline in margins of around -1bps in FY25 and -7bps in FY26.

Macquarie lifts EPS forecasts by 1% to 2% for FY25 to FY27.

The Underperform rating remains with a lift in the target price to $97 from $95. 1H25 results are due Feb 12, 2025.

Target price is $97.00 Current Price is $149.62 Difference: minus $52.62 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $102.08, suggesting downside of -33.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley highlights CommBank's 1Q25 earnings were lower than expected. Cash profit and pre-provision profit rose approximately 5% on 2H24 but fell below the broker's forecast by -2%. There were no major surprises in operational trends.

Revenue growth of 3.5% was below the analyst's forecast by -1%. Adjusting for changes in liquid assets, margins were stable, with business loans and household deposits advancing at 1.0x the system, and mortgages growing at around 1.3x the system.

Credit quality remained sound, Morgan Stanley states, with low loan losses, and the CET1 ratio was in line with estimates.

For CommBank, the target price is $113.50. The Underweight rating is retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $113.50 Current Price is $149.62 Difference: minus $36.12 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $102.08, suggesting downside of -33.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CBA as Reduce (5) -

Morgans makes only minor downgrades to its forecasts for CommBank following a 1Q trading update showing costs slightly higher than anticipated.

Unaudited cash NPAT increased by 5% to around $2.5bn. Net interest income grew by 3.5%, driven by at or above system home lending growth and a broadly stable underlying margin, explains the analyst.

The broker retains its Reduce rating, and the target eases to $95.45 from $96.81.

Target price is $95.45 Current Price is $149.62 Difference: minus $54.17 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $102.08, suggesting downside of -33.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CBA as Sell (5) -

CommBank's 1Q profit run-rate is tracking ahead of consensus expectations for H1 FY25, with Ord Minnett noting a 'robust' net interest income, supported by strong volumes in business lending and mortgages.

Credit quality remains stable, with arrears rates in line with peers, and the net interest margin (NIM) widened to 2.08% from 2.00% quarter-on-quarter, highlights the analyst.

Despite these positives, Ord Minnett maintains a cautious stance on the current share price and retains a Sell rating.

The target price increases to $105 from $100.

Target price is $105.00 Current Price is $149.62 Difference: minus $44.62 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $102.08, suggesting downside of -33.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CMM as Buy (1) -

Capricorn Metals has raised $200m via the issue of 33.3m new shares at an issue price of $6.00/share to fund aggressive production growth across both projects within the next three years, explains Bell Potter.

The Mt Gibson Gold Project is now fully funded, observes the broker, while an expansion at the Karlawinda Gold Project (KGP) has received recent board approval.

Buy rating unchanged. The target falls to $7.23 from $7.50.

Target price is $7.23 Current Price is $6.16 Difference: $1.07
If CMM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.24, suggesting upside of 21.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates COL as Buy (1) -

Following today's Coles Group investor day, Citi still expects cost savings will support earnings across FY25 and FY26.

Management reiterated its target of over -$1bn in savings from the Simplify and Save to Invest program over four years.

No new targets or capital management changes were disclosed.

The Buy rating and $21 target are retained.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $17.62 Difference: $3.38
If COL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.61, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DUR as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett believes Duratec's Defence earnings will be supported over the next three years by the award of Early Contractor Involvement (ECI) Head contracts to the Duratec Ertech joint venture.

The broker's higher earnings forecasts are also driven by stronger relative growth in Energy, positively impacting the company’s margins.

The target price increases to $1.60 from $1.43, with an Accumulate rating retained.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.55 Difference: $0.05
If DUR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.69, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EGL as Buy (1) -

After management at Environmental Group lowered FY25 guidance for normalised earnings (EBITDA) growth, the new implied range for FY25 is between $10.9-11.4m compared to Bell Potter's prior $12.0m forecast.

Management attributed lower earnings to “material” cost overruns from a single project managed by Baltec, due to “several” variations in the design scope of two gas turbine silencer units with a customer in Singapore.

The broker is comfortable this issue is confined to the single project and not indicative of broader systemic challenges.

The target falls to 40c from 43c. Buy rating.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.12
If EGL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FCL as Outperform (1) -

Fineos Corp's investor day detailed the company's position as a leading software provider to the Life sector, Macquarie explains, including confirmation of robust cash flows to support organic growth with M&A possibilities.

Management outlined three-year and five-year targets. Subscription fees are targeted to reach over 65% of total revenue, with a 75% gross margin, a 25% EBITDA margin, and 30% of revenue allocated to R&D within three years.

For five years, the aim is for subscription fees to account for over 75% of revenue, a 75% gross margin, a 40% EBITDA margin, and 25% of revenue allocated to R&D.

Macquarie highlighted the medium-term targets are above the broker's forecasts, with the opportunity to modernise Life Insurance clients viewed as "material."

No change to the $2.11 target price and Outperform rating

Target price is $2.11 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $0.41
If FCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FLT as Buy (1) -

In an initial assessment of today's' AGM trading update by Flight Centre Travel, Citi notes an in-line outcome.

The mid-point of FY25 profit PBT guidance of between $365-405m aligns with forecasts by consensus and the broker.

While 15% international ticket growth in the four months to October and 3% growth in corporate volumes appear stronger than underlying markets, the analyst notes converting strong volumes to super override accruals is less straight-forward with airfare deflation.

Super override is a term used in the airline industry to describe additional commissions or bonuses paid to travel agencies or corporate clients when they exceed certain sales targets. 

Buy. Target $24.35.

Target price is $24.35 Current Price is $16.63 Difference: $7.72
If FLT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.81, suggesting upside of 36.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FLT as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes Flight Centre Travel's 1Q25 trading update was "generally" disappointing, with deflation in airfares creating a significant headwind.

The analyst notes the company has faced cyclical challenges. July was satisfactory, but August and September were soft. Total transaction values at $6bn showed a slight increase, with Australian international volumes up 15%, offset by airfare deflation and business closures.

Revenue margins advanced 20bps to 11.4%, suggesting 1Q25 revenue of $590m, according to the analyst. Cost margins rose slightly, but management expects improvements.

Management's mid-point for FY25 guidance came in below both the broker's and consensus estimates, with a larger-than-normal 2H skew in earnings expected.

Macquarie believes airfare deflation will slow in 2Q25 as comps become easier.

Outperform with a $23.34 target.

Target price is $23.34 Current Price is $16.63 Difference: $6.71
If FLT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.81, suggesting upside of 36.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GNC as Outperform (1) -

GrainCorp reported FY24 results with net profit of $77m versus Macquarie's forecast of $66m, and EBITDA of $268m versus the broker's estimate of $259m.

At first glance, the analyst notes agribusiness performed slightly better, with softer grain volumes from FY23 and lower margins.

Nutrition and processing, previously under energy, were in line with expectations, with a 33% rise in EBITDA on record crush volumes, offset by lower margins.

Management continues to explore crush expansion with an ongoing feasibility study and is working with Ampol ((ALD)). A FEED phase-in is targeted for FY28.

Macquarie believes the company's balance sheet is a strength, with $337m in net cash, supporting an annualised $500m buyback and a 48c FY24 dividend per share.

Outperform rating and $10.07 target price.

Target price is $10.07 Current Price is $8.85 Difference: $1.22
If GNC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.83, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IFL as Neutral (3) -

Citi makes no overall change to forecasts after Insignia Financial's management retained the key components of FY25 guidance during a strategy update.

Dividends will depend on equity market performance, among other factors, and full dividend restoration may take some time, suggests the broker.

The Neutral rating and $3.15 target are maintained.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $3.17 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If IFL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.03, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IFL as Underweight (5) -

Insignia Financial reconfirmed FY25 guidance and outlined management's target for FY28 costs.

The company's aim is to reduce opex to a mid-point of -$800m versus FY25 guidance of -$947m-$952m by FY28, equating to a 30% rise in FY28 earnings if achieved.

The cost-out program is considered "credible" by the broker, but investors will need time to gain confidence, given the company's historical challenges in achieving cost-cutting measures.

Morgan Stanley expects higher leverage in FY25, so no dividend is anticipated in 2H25, with the 1H25 dividend to remain on pause.

The Underweight rating and $2.68 target price remain unchanged. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $2.68 Current Price is $3.17 Difference: minus $0.49 (current price is over target).
If IFL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.03, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ING as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlighted the importance of Inghams Group reconfirming FY25 guidance at the AGM.

The company has successfully covered 100% of the first two tranches from Woolworths Group’s ((WOW)) contract, which started in September, and is growing volumes with other retailers.

Year-to-date FY25 volumes are up 1.2% on 1H24 and 2.3% on 2H24. The second tranche begins in mid-3Q25.

The company maintained its selling prices, which is viewed positively alongside the volume replacement. Management guided 2H25 volumes to be flat compared to the previous corresponding period.

Quick service restaurant volumes are stabilising in A&NZ, the broker notes. Outperform. Target price $3.50.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: $0.51
If ING meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.45, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHX as Neutral (3) -

Following yesterday's update on 2Q results, Citi raises its target to $56 from $50.90 and retains a Neutral rating for James Hardie Industries given ongoing challenges for both R&R and new housing in the near-term.

Yesterday's Broker Call Report: Citi's first take on James Hardie Industries' 2Q25 results shows EBIT above consensus, boosted by lower costs across APAC, corporate, and general administration, which are not viewed as the "key drivers" for earnings performance.

North America sales were lower than consensus due to reduced prices and volumes, with EBIT in line due to cost reductions. APAC volumes fell -10% year-on-year, but earnings were above consensus, aided by the Philippine shutdown and an improved earnings mix.

Europe was also weak, with sales below consensus by -4%, and margins down -200bps below expectations.

Management revised earnings guidance to the low end of the range due to caution around volumes and the FY26 outlook, which the broker notes is generally in line with peers.

Target price is $56.00 Current Price is $53.35 Difference: $2.65
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $59.14, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JHX as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie was impressed by James Hardie Industries' cost management, which improved margins in both North America and APAC for 2Q25 results, which came in better than expected.

Management noted Europe was soft, particularly in Germany, with the UK showing some signs of improvement.

The broker believes the company is well-positioned for a recovery in the repair and restoration market in North America, and management indicated a floor under FY25 guidance at the previous bottom end of the range.

Macquarie leaves FY25 EPS forecasts unchanged and cuts the FY26 EPS estimate by -3.3%.

The target price lifts to $65.10 from $64.20. Outperform.

Target price is $65.10 Current Price is $53.35 Difference: $11.75
If JHX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $59.14, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JHX as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes James Hardie Industries' 2Q25 earnings came in at the top end of guidance and 8% above consensus. APAC was the main driver, with EBIT well above the broker's and consensus forecasts by 44% and 27%, respectively.

North America net profit also came in higher and at the top end of guidance.

Management revised FY25 guidance to the bottom end of the range, which the analyst views positively as concerns over further earnings weakness have been alleviated.

The repairs and restoration market remains soft, and management does not anticipate a recovery this year. Conditions are expected to remain challenging, the broker believes, but should improve with -75bps rate cuts.

The Overweight rating is retained. The target price lifts to $60 from $59. Industry View: In-Line. Earnings forecasts are adjusted by Morgan Stanley.

Target price is $60.00 Current Price is $53.35 Difference: $6.65
If JHX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $59.14, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JHX as Add (1) -

A 2Q earnings EBIT margin of 29% came in at the upper end of James Hardie Industries' guidance for between 27.5% to 29.5%. Declining volumes were offset by a higher average selling price, along with operating cost savings, explains Morgans.

Adjusted net income of U$157m beat forecasts by the broker and consensus by 16% and 8%, respectively.

Management lowered FY25 adjusted net income guidance to around U$635m from between US$630-$700m due to the challenging environment.

Morgans views any US housing weakness as an opportunity to buy the highest quality building products business on the ASX.

The target rises to $60.25 from $57.25. Add.

Target price is $60.25 Current Price is $53.35 Difference: $6.9
If JHX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $59.14, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JHX as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett's target for James Hardie Industries rises to $57 from $54 following a significant 1H profit beat against forecasts by the broker and consensus.

The beat resulted from cost control in the North American fibre cement (NAFC) business and record profits from the Asia-Pacific fibre cement operations, explains the analyst.

The highlight for Ord Minnett was management's forecast for higher quarter-on-quarter volumes in the three months to December for the NAFC division.

Management is guiding to FY25 profit of US$635m.

The Hold rating is maintained.

Target price is $57.00 Current Price is $53.35 Difference: $3.65
If JHX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $59.14, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates JIN as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Bell Potter initiates coverage on founder-led Jumbo Interactive, which operates ozlotteries.com, a reseller of digital lottery tickets (i.e., Powerball, Oz Lotto) in Australia, with a Buy rating and a target price of $16.50.

The company also provides lottery software platforms and lottery-management expertise to government and charity lotteries primarily in Australia, the UK, and Canada, explains the broker.

As revenues from charity and government clients grow, the analysts explain reliance upon The Lottery Corporation (TLC) products, which accounted for 75% of FY24 revenue, will ease.

The broker's investment case for Jumbo Interactive partly relies on the growing proportion of Australian lottery ticket sales via online channels and the company’s best-in-class Jumbo Lottery Platform.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $12.59 Difference: $3.91
If JIN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.73, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JLG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley observes there were no surprises at Johns Lyng's AGM, with management reconfirming FY25 guidance, including the Keystone acquisition.

FY25 business-as-usual revenue growth guidance suggested no changes compared to the CAT revenue mix, the analyst notes.

Morgan Stanley highlights CAT consensus estimates are higher than guidance due to a portion from Keystone and expectations of upside in US CATs.

The broker notes the strata business is not reliant on insurance commissions, though the exact exposure remains unknown.

The Overweight rating and $4.40 target are maintained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.20 Difference: $0.2
If JLG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.67, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LNW as Buy (1) -

Light & Wonder's -2% miss against the consensus forecast for Q3 adjusted earnings (EBITDA) was driven by lower Gaming Ops Fee-Per-Day (FPD) and reduced Systems and Table Products revenue, explains Bell Potter.

Management reaffirmed the 2025 earnings (AEBITDA) target of US$1,400m.

The broker raises its target to $180 from $165 on higher free cash flow (FCF) forecasts and favourable currency movements.

Target price is $180.00 Current Price is $151.67 Difference: $28.33
If LNW meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $174.40, suggesting upside of 18.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LNW as Outperform (1) -

Light & Wonder reconfirmed its FY25 EBITDA target of $1.4bn in its 3Q25 results. The company's revenues came in slightly lower than Macquarie's forecast by -1%, with EBITDA 2% better than estimated.

Gaming continued to show momentum, the installed base increased by almost 600 units, 31% growth in North American shipments, and 13.1k unit sales.

Macquarie notes the North American installed base has grown for 17 consecutive quarters and the company held the number one ship share in 3Q25.

The broker notes iGaming grew 4% for the quarter and suggests growth prospects remain strong with US state legislation and new content.

Management replaced or converted 95% of the approximately 2.2k Dragon Train units in North America.

The Outperform rating remains unchanged. Changes to FX assumptions lift the target price to $180 from $169.

Target price is $180.00 Current Price is $151.67 Difference: $28.33
If LNW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $174.40, suggesting upside of 18.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MAD as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Following a review of cyclical drivers for Mader Group and after recent share price strength, Bell Potter raises its target to $7.20 from $6.80 and downgrades to Hold from Buy.

The broker’s assumed weighted average cost of capital (WACC) was also lowered to 10% from 10.5%.

The analysts see limited upside risk to FY25 guidance in the current environment as North American mining activity remains challenged.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $6.79 Difference: $0.41
If MAD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MIN as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter highlights Bald Hill is Mineral Resources' highest-cost lithium mine, including sustaining capital costs, following management’s decision to transition the mine to care and maintenance.

The broker notes shipped SC6 volumes in FY25 will now fall to approximately 60kt, down from prior guidance of 120-145kt SC6 equivalent.

The Buy rating is maintained, and the target price is reduced to $61.00 from $61.50.

Target price is $61.00 Current Price is $34.95 Difference: $26.05
If MIN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 75% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.86, suggesting upside of 24.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MIN as Sell (5) -

Mineral Resources will place Bald Hill in care and mantenance with management citing cash preservation against market conditions.

Citi lowers its FY25 and FY26 earnings EBITDA forecasts by -4% and -6%, respectively, noting Bald Hill is worth around $40m per annum to the company's mining services earnings.

The broker maintains its target of $35 and Sell rating.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $34.95 Difference: $0.05
If MIN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.86, suggesting upside of 24.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Neutral (3) -

Mineral Resources announced Bald Hill will move to care and maintenance starting immediately due to weaker prices and higher cash costs, with FY25 sales reduced to 60kt from 120-140kt. Plant operations will cease in December.

Current operating costs are above spodumene prices, the broker highlights, and notes risks to Mt Marion and Wodgina profitability with management's current cost guidance.

The company is now more exposed to iron ore, third-party, and JV partner service earnings.

Macquarie cuts EPS forecasts by -21% for FY25 and -2% for FY26 due to Bald Hill's move into care and maintenance.

The target price falls -8% to $35. No change to the Neutral rating.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $34.95 Difference: $0.05
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.86, suggesting upside of 24.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Overweight (1) -

Placing Bald Hill into care and maintenance and ceasing production is viewed by Morgan Stanley as a "sensible" move for Mineral Resources and aligns with the analyst's expectations.

The broker's forecasts already included the expected closure by the end of 2024, and the change will enable the company to conserve cash in the current lithium market.

Morgan Stanley notes Bald Hill was still cash positive at current spot spodumene prices, though the capex contribution was unknown, making the move positive. No change to the analyst's earnings estimates.

Target $58. Overweight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $58.00 Current Price is $34.95 Difference: $23.05
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 66% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.86, suggesting upside of 24.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MYS as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett raises forecasts for Mystate following the merger with Auswide Bank.

The broker anticipates material upside to earnings and valuation on a three-year view and highlights an attractive dividend yield.

The target rises to $4.74 from $4.31. The Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $4.74 Current Price is $3.67 Difference: $1.07
If MYS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NHF as Buy (1) -

Management at nib Holdings warned of extraordinary growth in claims at the New Zealand operations, leading to an operating loss of -$10m in 1H25, missing the consensus expectation for operating earnings of $20m, explains Ord Minnett.

Management intends to cut costs and raise prices in New Zealand, actions the broker suggests should have been undertaken earlier.

Guidance is for FY25 group underlying operating earnings of between $235-250m.

The Buy rating is maintained, with the target falling to $6.90 from $7.25.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $5.70 Difference: $1.2
If NHF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.84, suggesting upside of 19.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NIC as Initiation of coverage with Buy (3) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage on Nickel Industries with a Buy rating, citing exposure to a rebound in nickel prices and the company's lower position on the cost curve relative to peers.

The analyst highlights the quality of the company’s asset base and its technology advantages in processing laterite ores, which account for around 60% of the world’s known nickel resources.

Assuming stable nickel prices, Ord Minnett expects output growth and robust margins to lift attributable earnings (EBITDA) to around US$483m in 2027, up from US$248m in 2024.

A $1.60 target is set.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $0.88 Difference: $0.72
If NIC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 82% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.21, suggesting upside of 34.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NUF as Sell (5) -

Today's release of Nufarm's FY24 revenue and underlying earnings (EBITDA) exceeded Citi's expectations, primarily due to a volume increase in the Crop Protection business. However, the positive impact of higher volumes was offset by pressure from pricing.

In an initial review, the broker also notes margins for Seed Technologies were materially below both the previous period and the expected 20.4%.

The analyst believes pricing will continue to be a headwind in the near term for both Nufarm and the broader industry.

While management reiterated the FY26 revenue goal, the outcome remains closely tied to a recovery in long-term average pricing in Crop Protection, explains Citi.

Target $3.65. Sell.

Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $3.66 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If NUF meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.59, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NUF as Neutral (3) -

UBS's snapshot of Nufarm's FY24 result suggests the broker believes the challenging report was well known to investors.

EBITDA fell -29%, with a net profit loss of -$4m. Geographically, the results were mixed, with Europe and Seeds performing lower than the broker's forecasts. North America and APAC were better than estimated, and Omega-3 revenue met expectations.

The analyst notes "solid" 2H24 cash flow, which should help alleviate concerns about the balance sheet.

Neutral rated with a $4.50 target price.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.66 Difference: $0.84
If NUF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.59, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates NXL as Buy (1) -

Nuix confirmed FY25 guidance at the AGM, sending the stock down -20%, Shaw and Partners observes, which the analyst believes is an "over-reaction."

Management reiterated growth around 15% in annualised contract values, ongoing positive roll-out of Neo, revenue growth above cost growth excluding legal costs, and positive underlying free cash flow for the year.

The broker suspects the market reacted to the following comment: "sales are not linear over the course of the year, and our current expectations are growth will be weighted towards the second half of the fiscal year."

Shaw and Partners highlights the business is typically not cyclical with a second-half skew; rather, contract renewals are scheduled for 2H25.

The analyst reiterates a Buy rating and $7.20 target price.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $5.90 Difference: $1.3
If NXL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NXT as Buy (1) -

Citi looks at the recent acquisition of Global Switch data centres in Sydney by HMC Capital as a read-through for NextDC.

Despite the acquisition multiple being lower than NextDC's current trading multiple, the broker notes HMC Capital highlighted the Sydney market as under-supplied over the next five years, aligning with Citi's recent sector analysis.

Citi maintains a short-term upside call on NextDC, expiring on January 18, with a Buy rating and a target price of $20.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $17.13 Difference: $2.87
If NXT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.10, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORI as Neutral (3) -

Orica's FY24 results revealed EBIT in line with forecasts by Citi and consensus, while revenue missed the broker’s forecast by -7%, and the EBITDA margin beat by 1%. Profit of $409.4m met consensus expectations.

Management expects earnings to increase in FY25 compared to FY24.

The broker’s initial reaction is positive, viewing the results as "solid" and the FY25 outlook as aligning with growth expectations. A final unfranked dividend of 28c for FY24, representing a 59% payout ratio, is 1c above the analyst's forecast.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $17.57 Difference: $1.43
If ORI meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.57, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORI as Outperform (1) -

Orica reported a FY24 net profit of $409m, slightly above Macquarie's $406m forecast, marking an 11% year-on-year increase. Net interest was higher than expected, with operating cash flow slightly better. Gearing of 26% sits within the target range of 30-40%.

The broker considers the result "solid," and management offered a positive outlook with higher depreciation/amortisation guidance.

Ongoing growth in blasting solutions is expected by Orica in FY25, with demand boosted by the re-contracting cycle. A full-year contribution from acquisitions and strong tech adoption is also anticipated.

Management expects a return on operating funds employed of an average 13%-15% over the next three years, higher than the previous target of 12%-14%.

Outperform rating with a $19.76 target price.

Target price is $19.76 Current Price is $17.57 Difference: $2.19
If ORI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.57, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PDN as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter retains its Buy rating for Paladin Energy but lowers the target price to $9.70 from $14.40 after management reduced FY25 production guidance to 3.0-3.6mlbs, down from 4.0-4.5mlbs.

The broker places less reliance on historical data after management cited ongoing issues with stockpile processing and greater ore grade variability.

The analysts also highlight that Fission Uranium shareholders would be approximately -27% worse off if the scrip deal with Paladin proceeded at current share prices. The Paladin share price needs to exceed $10 to offer a premium in the deal for shareholders.

Target price is $9.70 Current Price is $7.47 Difference: $2.23
If PDN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.33, suggesting upside of 68.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QBE as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie upgrades QBE Insurance to Outperform from Neutral with a rise in the target price to $20.80 from $17.10.

The broker flags the rise in portfolio exits in anticipation of a pickup in the North American pricing cycle, as the insurer has "streamlined" its disclosures.

Quarterly filings with the insurance commissioner suggest gross written premium has contracted by -5.8% in 3Q24 year-to-date, with crop down -10%, while 2Q24 catastrophe losses were in line with expectations, including US hurricanes, European flooding, and Canadian events.

Macquarie lifts EPS estimates by 7.5% in FY24 and 10% in FY25 due to higher insurance margins as bond yields flatten and North America continues to improve.

QBE Insurance will report its 3Q24 trading update on Nov 27.

Target price is $20.80 Current Price is $18.67 Difference: $2.13
If QBE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.34, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGM as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

The AGM trading update by Sims confirms to Citi near-term improvement in the US market, but the A&NZ region remains tough reflecting lower Asian steel prices/margins given high China steel exports.

In line with rising market multiples, the broker raises its multiple for Sims and the target increases to $13.50 from $13.00. The rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy following a 34% rise in share price in the last six months.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $12.72 Difference: $0.78
If SGM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.19, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Buy (1) -

Citi observes from the latest Nielsen data for the four weeks to November 2, Treasury’s Americas sales fell by -5% (market -3%), driven by volume (-5%), with pricing flat.

This outcome is a slight acceleration in the rate of decline from the prior four-week period of -4%, notes the broker, and a continuation of this trend could pose risk to FY25 EBITS guidance of between $780-$810m.

Treasury Wine Estates is Buy rated with a $12.97 target price.

Target price is $12.97 Current Price is $10.87 Difference: $2.1
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.71, suggesting upside of 26.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates XRO as Buy (1) -

Following today's 1H results for Xero, Citi, in an initial glance, continues to view earnings (EBITDA) guidance as conservative and sees potential for the stock price to outperform.

Earnings of NZ$312m increased by 52% year-on-year, beating broker and consensus forecasts by 7% and 10%, respectively.

While profit of NZ$95m missed consensus by -13%, the analyst highlights a non-cash derivative revaluation loss of -NZ$50m and -NZ$10m in transaction costs.

Free cash flow (FCF) met Citi's forecast, with strong operating cash flow conversion of 110%. Additionally, Xero achieved approximately 44% in the ‘Rule of 40’ metric, ahead of the broker's estimate.

Management reiterated opex guidance, with Product & Development spending expected to be flat year-on-year versus previous guidance of being higher, notes the analyst.

Buy. Target $185.

Target price is $185.00 Current Price is $161.55 Difference: $23.45
If XRO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $169.75, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates XRO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie's initial take on Xero's 1H25 results shows improved cost management, with a gross margin around 89%, opex to sales at 71.2%, and a free cash flow margin of 21%, driven by 8.9% sales growth in small businesses.

Average revenue per user was better than anticipated at NZ$43.01, up 11% year-on-year, due to strong uptake of higher-priced plans in Australia, robust payments performance, and "idle" subscription churn.

Management reiterated FY25 guidance.

The rating is Outperform, with a target price of $188.50.

Target price is $188.50 Current Price is $161.55 Difference: $26.95
If XRO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $169.75, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates XRO as Buy (1) -

At first glance, UBS notes Xero's 1H25 results were "strong," with good cost control and free cash flow generation again a highlight for the company.

Revenues met consensus expectations but were 5% higher than the broker's forecast, with subscribers falling short by -2% against consensus, meeting UBS's estimates but offset by growth in average revenue per user.

A&NZ and the rest of the world performed in line with expectations; the UK was stronger than anticipated, while North America was the main weak point versus consensus.

Management retained guidance for an opex ratio of 73% for FY25, with UBS noting greater investment in growth areas, including the US, which is seasonally weaker in 2H. Churn rates are expected to be minimal, confirming Xero's pricing power.

Buy rated. Target price $175.

Target price is $175.00 Current Price is $161.55 Difference: $13.45
If XRO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $169.75, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources