Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates 360 as Buy (1) -

Ahead of Life360's 1Q25 result on May 13, Bell Potter's FY25 revenue and EBITDA forecasts are in line with the company's guidance and consistent with consensus.

The broker estimates 3Q revenue to be up 28% y/y to US$100.5m and expects another quarter of positive cash flow.

The broker will look for confirmation of new pet device launch in 4Q and any new advertising partnerships.

Buy. Target rises to $28.15 from $28.00 on time creep in the DCF.

Target price is $28.15 Current Price is $22.70 Difference: $5.45
If 360 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.21, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates A2M as Buy (1) -

UBS retains a Buy rating on a2 Milk, expecting net profit to rise by around 60% from FY25 to FY28, driven by infant formula (IF) market share gains across English-label and China-label products. Reduced losses in the US and Mataura Valley Milk are also expected.

The analysts have now fully incorporated an additional NZ$1.00 per share of upside into the company's valuation from a second China-label product, helping lift the 12-month price target to NZ$9.95 from NZ$8.68.

Current Price is $8.26. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $7.40, suggesting downside of -10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie previews the upcoming 1H25 result for Aristocrat Leisure on May 14, with a forecast of net profit after tax of $809m, adjusted for forex, which represents growth of 6% on a year earlier and is slightly below consensus at $812m.

The analyst expects the result will reinforce the resilient and strong characteristics of the company's land-based business and a better outlook for Product Madness profitability and iGaming and iLottery outlooks.

Macquarie continues to forecast a compound average growth rate to FY27 of 14% per annum for earnings, with momentum across all aspects of the business.

The broker tweaks EPS lower by -1% and -2% for FY25/FY26, respectively. No change to $75 target price and Outperform rating.

Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $67.79 Difference: $7.21
If ALL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $76.93, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ARB as Neutral (3) -

Citi observes a -2% fall in ARB Corp's April sales index, down from a 5% rise in March, pointing to softer Australian Aftermarket sales in 2H25.

The broker notes a sharp drop in BYD Shark sales (-54% month-on-month), which could provide a partial offset if aftermarket accessories like ARB’s Zenith Bar launch on schedule by July.

The analysts continue to see BYD Shark as a risk to ARB’s sales until it launches a suite of aftermarket parts.

Citi maintains a cautious domestic view, despite incremental optimism around US operations, which have shown operational improvements. A Neutral rating and $39.54 target price are maintained.

Target price is $39.54 Current Price is $31.00 Difference: $8.54
If ARB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $40.95, suggesting upside of 30.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ARB as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes new vehicle sales fell -6.8% in April but ARB Corp comparatively outperformed, posting -3.6% decline.

The company is doing well with LCV sales, which posted a small decline compared with the broader drop of -4.6% seen in the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries data.

The broker is optimistic the sales trends will improve from next month, and while the recent decline is a headwind, the company will see benefits from new and refurbished stores and strategic partnerships.

Buy. Target unchanged at $45.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $31.00 Difference: $14
If ARB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $40.95, suggesting upside of 30.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ARX as Speculative Buy from Add (1) -

Morgans moves Aroa Biosurgery to Speculative Buy from Add and retains a 93c target price.

The analyst highlights 4Q25 results which met expectations, with a focus on NZ$1.1m in positive cash flow. Myriad sales rose 32% year-on-year, while OviTex sales increased 17%. Cash at the end of March was NZ$22m, down from NZ$29.5m a year earlier.

Management reiterated FY25 guidance for revenue of NZ$81–NZ$84m and earnings (EBITDA) of NZ$2–NZ$4m, and believes the 10% US tariff on imported goods from NZ will be largely offset by other commercial agreements.

The company is due to report FY25 results on May 27, with guidance for FY26 anticipated to be announced.

Target price is $0.93 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: $0.48
If ARX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 107% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie highlights Aurizon Holdings had a tough 3Q25, and soft CQCC volumes point to downward pressure on the FY25 EBITDA guidance of $1.66-1.74bn. The broker's forecast is at the low end at $1.66bn.

Both above and below rail business performances were weak, with export volumes -11% for CQCC and -4.4% for HVCC. The broker doesn't believe the lost volumes would be recouped.

Iron ore volume was soft, and the broker sees a growing risk the bulk/freight CGU is written down, given the business closure of the company's clients.

Neutral. Target cut to $3.32 from $3.41.

Target price is $3.32 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: $0.32
If AZJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.33, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates C79 as Hold (3) -

Chrysos' 3Q25 revenue beat Bell Potter's forecast, and the company reiterated FY25 guidance, which is tracking at the lower end of the $60-70m range. The broker's estimate is $62.9m.

The key news was just the one unit deployed during the quarter, which missed the broker's forecast of two. Five units are currently being deployed, suggesting some of them could generate revenue in late Q4.

Overall, the broker cut the forecast for units installed to 4 from 5, assuming the fifth one gets pushed back to 1Q 2026. FY25 EPS forecast cut while FY26-27 was upgraded.

Hold Target cut to $4.40 from $4.70.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.97 Difference: $0.43
If C79 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.74, suggesting upside of 43.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates C79 as Accumulate (2) -

In an update ahead of conference appearances this week, Chrysos revealed it deployed one new unit in 3Q25, taking the total to 35.

While this was lower than Ord Minnett's forecast of 36, the broker is taking comfort from five units deployment currently underway that would likely mean its FY25 target of 38 units would be met.

The broker is more encouraged by the two new lease agreements signed, which reduces customer concentration.

FY25 EBITDA forecast cut by -2% and capex forecast lowered for FY25 but increased in FY26.

Accumulate. Target lifted to $6.02 from $5.95 on revisions and roll forward.

Target price is $6.02 Current Price is $3.97 Difference: $2.05
If C79 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.74, suggesting upside of 43.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CTD as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Following a trading update, UBS lowers its target for Corporate Travel Management to $13.55 from $17.60 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral.

The broker believes the current share price reflects sufficient downside risk from macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly in the US.

While FY25 guidance has been downgraded, with group revenue down by -$29m and earnings (EBITDA) revised to around $167m from $197m, the analyst highlights strong new client momentum.

New business win momentum has accelerated to $1.6bn per annum total transaction value (TTV) from $1bn TTV per year in FY25.

Target price is $17.60 Current Price is $11.41 Difference: $6.19
If CTD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.61, suggesting upside of 29.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates DUG as Buy (1) -

DUG Technology reported strong momentum in its 3Q25 trading update, assesses Shaw and Partners, underpinned by the growing adoption of its Elastic MP-FWI technology.

The company secured $22.7m in service awards during the quarter, up from circa $10m in each of the first two quarters of FY25.

The broker highlights significant operating leverage despite ongoing international expansion. International growth continues across the Middle East, Brazil, and India, with a strong tender pipeline and strategic local partnerships, note the analysts. 

Gross operating cash flow was $3.3m, and the company ended March with $16.3m in cash and net debt of $6.6m.

The broker views DUG's share price as having likely bottomed, with multiple near-term catalysts such as DUG Nomad and DUG Cool, which are not yet factored into forecasts.

Shaw retains a Buy rating and $3.00 target price.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $1.85
If DUG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 161% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EDV as Neutral (3) -

Following yesterday's March quarter update, Citi makes minor downgrades to Endeavour Group's FY25-27 forecasts.

Despite these changes, the broker raises the target price to $4.59 from $4.50, reflecting higher peer multiples.

Near-term earnings challenges remain, with FY25 core EPS expected to fall -9.9% before returning to growth in FY26 and FY27, explain the analysts.

The broker remains cautious, retaining a Neutral rating, citing structural headwinds for margins, a lack of near-term catalysts, and potential gaming regulatory risks.

Target price is $4.59 Current Price is $3.98 Difference: $0.61
If EDV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.52, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EDV as Hold (3) -

Endeavour Group's 3Q25 trading update was largely in line with expectations, according to Morgans. Normalised retail sales fell -1.3% versus the broker's forecast of -1.1%, and like-for-like sales declined by -1.3%.

The analyst highlights total sales growth was slower than Coles Group ((COL)), with like-for-like liquor sales growth of 3.4% over the same period.

Management stressed consumer spending remains under pressure outside of special occasions, while hotel sales normalised, up 4.9%, slightly below Morgans' forecast of 5.1%.

The analyst makes slight changes to earnings forecasts. The outlook for sales continues to remain weak, with cost inflation expected to retain pressure on margins.

No change to Hold rating and $4.35 target price.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $3.98 Difference: $0.37
If EDV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.52, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EDV as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Endeavour’ Group's 3Q25 sales fell -1.7% to $2.84bn, with Retail down -3.1% and Hotels up by 5.1%.

Retail missed consensus and UBS expectations, driven by competitive pressure, weaker liquor trends, and soft like-for-like growth of -3.7%, while Hotels outperformed on resilience in gaming and strength in food and beverage.

Execution concerns, especially in Retail, and limited confidence in an EBIT margin recovery are behind the broker's downgrade to Neutral from Buy.

UBS also flags increased promotional intensity, ongoing One Endeavour separation costs, and rising industry competition as key headwinds. The target price falls to $4.25 from $4.50.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $3.98 Difference: $0.27
If EDV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.52, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FLT as Buy (1) -

Following a trading update, UBS downgrades its Flight Centre Travel FY25 and FY26 EPS forecasts by -14% and -15%, respectively. The analysts point to weaker macro conditions, particularly in the US, and a softer outlook for consumer confidence and travel demand.

Management's underlying FY25 profit before tax (PBT) guidance was reduced to $300-335m from the bottom of the $365-405m range, broadly flat on FY24.

UBS also assumes a slower recovery in override revenue and lower revenue growth momentum across all regions into FY26.

Despite near-term headwinds, the analysts see strong corporate new business momentum, a growing share in leisure from independent agents, and benefits from productivity initiatives.

The broker suggests further upside exists should interest rate cuts improve Australian leisure demand, particularly for non-Baby Boomer travellers.

UBS cuts the target price to $15.00 from $20.00 but maintains a Buy rating, citing medium-term earnings upside and a forecast three-year EPS compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17%.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $12.61 Difference: $2.39
If FLT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.39, suggesting upside of 39.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GMG as Neutral (3) -

UBS expects the key focus at Goodman Group’s quarterly update on May 28 will be FY25 operating EPS guidance, currently forecast at 9% growth, with the broker noting potential for a modest 1% upgrade.

A material uplift in development work in progress (WIP) from the 1H25 level of $13bn is also anticipated, as data centre projects begin construction.

Neutral rating. Target $36.80.

Target price is $36.80 Current Price is $30.78 Difference: $6.02
If GMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.57, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GOR as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter notes Gold Road Resources has entered into a scheme implementation deed with a revised offer from Gold Field to acquire 100% interest. The new price is at $3.40/share comprising of fixed $2.52/share (less special dividends) and variable valued at 88c via interest in Northern Star Resources ((NST)).

The fixed component sits in the middle of the original $2.27 fixed offer and the broker's modelled value of $2.75. Still the broker believes it is a good outcome given Gruyere's value is not yet assured.

Hold. Target price cut to $3.05 from $3.25 to account for special dividend estimated at 35c.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $3.29 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If GOR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.34, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GOR as Resume at Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has resumed coverage of Gold Road Resources after a period of restriction, with a Neutral rating and target price of $3.40.

The broker views the upgraded offer from Gold Fields as a fair deal as it implies $3,878/oz gold price, which is at a 21% premium to its real long-term gold price forecast. Additionally, it takes the risk out of the company's execution of Gruyere's underground option.

The broker has now factored in Gruyere underground in the forecast, leading to a push back in the no earnings expectation to 2048 from 2033.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.29 Difference: $0.11
If GOR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.34, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley cut FY26 earnings forecasts for insurers on lower investment yields, but continues to favour Insurance Australia Group on double-digit underlying EPS growth, improving quality and capital management options.

For Insurance Australia Group, the broker cut FY25 cash net profit forecast by -1% on mark-to-market, offset by an estimated 10% budget beat in 2H25 on catastrophe claims.

FY26-27 forecasts cut by -3% on lower investment yields. Equal-weight. Target cut to $7.85 from $8.05.

Target price is $7.85 Current Price is $8.32 Difference: minus $0.47 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.48, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ILU as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes the main comment from Iluka Resources' strategy update was that all project decisions will be based on returns rather than to protect market share. The company highlighted Typhoon and Sonoran deposits as potential life-extension opportunities.

Balranald is on track for 2H25 commissioning, and the broker highlights the focus will be on unlocking other deep deposits flagged by the company.

The broker cut production forecasts for FY26-29 following the update. FY25 EPS forecast was cut -8% while FY27 was upgraded by 3%.

Outperform. Target unchanged at $6.50.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $4.01 Difference: $2.49
If ILU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.12, suggesting upside of 26.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IPD as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans was disappointed by the installed base in the US as revealed in the latest cash flow update from ImpediMed's 3Q25.

Cash receipts grew to $4.1m from $3.4m in the previous quarter, and the installed base reached 36 units, with 22 units in the US and 14 in the rest of the world. The broker had forecast 40 units in the US compared to 20 units in 2Q25.

Management has hired additional staff to improve the US growth base. The analyst liked the fact that price increases on renewals averaged 19% in the quarter.

Morgans lowers EPS forecasts due to slower US growth by -1.8% in FY25 and -8.9% in FY26.

Speculative Buy rating maintained, with the target price lowered to 15c from 16c.

Target price is $0.15 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.115
If IPD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 329% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates M7T as Add (1) -

Morgans views the latest quarterly report from Mach7 Technologies as mixed due to a slight shrinkage in subscription value and no new contract wins of note.

Delays with the Veterans Affairs contract have weighed on the company's year-to-date performance, the broker emphasises. Organic growth and upgrades from existing customers are offering some revenue support.

Management retained FY25 guidance of 15% to 25% growth in compound average recurring revenue, and Morgans notes the company has boosted transaction contract revenue by $5.1m over the quarter.

No change to the analyst's earnings estimates. Add rating with $1.37 target retained.

Target price is $1.37 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $1.03
If M7T meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 303% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates MMI as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Metro Mining shipped 425kt of direct shipping bauxite ore in April, up by 12% year-on-year and in line with its 2025 shipping schedule, which targets 6.5-7.0m wet metric tonnes (wmt), explains Shaw and Partners.

With bauxite prices already locked in for the June quarter, the broker believes the company is on schedule to generate around $60m in site earnings (EBITDA).

Production performance supports confidence in guidance delivery, and the broker has not made any changes to its forecasts. It's felt operational execution remains key.

Buy, High risk. Target unchanged at 17c.

Target price is $0.17 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.116
If MMI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 215% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MX1 as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans details the $4m capital raising for Micro-X and an additional $2.4m from its strategic partner Billion Prima during 3Q25, as well as the updated cash flow report.

The company entered into a 12-month agreement for $3.2m to commercialise a baggage and screening unit, the broker explains. Management has shifted the company’s focus to medical imaging and the development of a head CT scanner, as well as a lightweight portable CT scanner.

Cash receipts for the period came in at $0.8m and year-to-date at $2m, with $3.2m in project receipts, the analyst notes.

Speculative Buy rating and 17c target unchanged. No changes to Morgans' earnings forecasts.

Target price is $0.17 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.113
If MX1 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 198% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NXT as Add (1) -

Morgans dissects the latest updates from cloud service providers, including Google Cloud, Microsoft's Azure, Amazon's AWS, and Meta, showing the April results were generally better than expected and AI commentary more upbeat alongside data centre demand.

Capex from the tech majors rose an average of 2%, the broker notes, to US$309bn, a rise of 46% on a year earlier.

Data centre stocks, including NextDC, started de-rating three months ago, along with the company's largest clients of Microsoft, AWS, and Alphabet.

The analyst believes NextDC is well placed to benefit from growth in demand. Medium-term growth is underwritten by around 60MW that is contracted, with revenue streams to flow over time.

Add rating and $18.80 target price retained.

Target price is $18.80 Current Price is $13.71 Difference: $5.09
If NXT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.50, suggesting upside of 43.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QBE as Buy (1) -

Ahead of QBE Insurance's 1Q25 update on May 9, Citi expects the insurer to at least reiterate the FY25 outlook for combined ratio and gross written premiums (GWP).

The broker believes there's upside risk for GWP given the focus on volume growth. Catastrophe losses are expected to be slightly higher due to LA wildfires.

Buy. Target unchanged at $23.30.

Target price is $23.30 Current Price is $21.35 Difference: $1.95
If QBE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.27, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QBE as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has analysed 1Q2025 results of 18 global reinsurers to evaluate what it means for QBE Insurance. The key finding was the premium rates were stable compared with 4Q2024, with strength in the US offsetting some weakness seen in Europe.

Ahead of QBE's 1Q25 trading update on May 9, the broker notes the key events in 1Q were California fires, weather event in the US midwest and south regions, Australia flooding and earthquakes in Myanmar/Thailand.

Outperform. Target unchanged at $23.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $21.35 Difference: $1.65
If QBE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.27, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QBE as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley cut FY26 earnings forecasts for insurers on lower investment yields, but continues to favour the group on double-digit underlying EPS growth, improving quality and capital management options.

For QBE Insurance, the broker cut FY25-26 earnings forecast by -3-4% on a -25bps lower investment yield estimate and a -US$26m pre-tax investment.

Adjusted net profit forecast for FY25-27 trimmed by -1-2% on AT1 redemption and new debt issuance expected this year.

Overweight. Target cut to $24.60 from $25.05.

Target price is $24.60 Current Price is $21.35 Difference: $3.25
If QBE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.27, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates QBE as Buy (1) -

Ahead of QBE Insurance's 1Q25 update on May 9, UBS reviews market trends across key guidance measures.

Solid volume growth should keep FY25 gross written premium (GWP) guidance of circa 5% growth on track, suggests the broker.

The combined operating ratio (COR) guidance of around 92.5% is also expected to remain intact.

The broker's target falls to $24.50 from $24.60. Buy maintained.

Target price is $24.50 Current Price is $21.35 Difference: $3.15
If QBE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.27, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RWC as Buy (1) -

Reliance Worldwide announced the potential impact of US tariffs on FY25 EBITA of -US$25-30m, assuming flat macro and 145% China tariff.

Citi believes both assumptions may not materialise and expects estimates to change as tariffs are negotiated. For now, the broker cut FY25 EBITDA forecast by -5%, FY26 by -15%, and FY27 by -7%.

While volumes in America will decline in FY26, the broker expects some offset from a 6% price increase. The forecast for FY27 assumes a reversal of the tariff impact.

Buy. Target cut to $5.25 from $5.90. 

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $4.09 Difference: $1.16
If RWC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.82, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RWC as Outperform (1) -

Reliance Worldwide estimates tariff impact on FY26 EBITDA of -US$25-35m, which is -US$20m worse than Macquarie's forecast. However, the impact on FY27 was US$10m better than the broker expected.

There's upside risk to this, the broker points out, as the company has factored in current tariff settings, and there's a potential for it to get better.

The analyst believes the company is well-positioned to deal with headwinds, with offsets likely from lagged price increases, cost reduction and sourcing shifts.

Outperform. Target cut to $5.55 from $5.60.

Target price is $5.55 Current Price is $4.09 Difference: $1.46
If RWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.82, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RWC as Equal-weight (3) -

Reliance Worldwide flagged a -US$25-35m cut to FY26 EBITDA forecast from global tariffs, and Morgan Stanley sees this as a one-off impact.

The broker notes the company's plans to diversify its product sourcing away from China, and the target to reduce China-sourced cost of goods by US$80m in FY25, down -30% vs FY24. The company is also targeting zero tariff-impacted product sourced from China for sale in the US.

Following the update, the broker cut FY25 EBIT forecast by -5% and FY26 by -13%. 

Equal-weight. Target cut to $4.60.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.09 Difference: $0.51
If RWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.82, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RWC as Hold (3) -

Morgans observes Reliance Worldwide's trading update came in weaker than expected, with management downgrading FY25 sales and earnings guidance due to a decline in the US market over the last few months.

The analyst details the company's views on the potential impact of tariffs, highlighting that around 48% of Reliance's Americas cost of goods sold are sourced outside of the US and could be subject to tariffs.

Management is attempting to pivot sourcing of products from alternative countries to China, such as Vietnam, Taiwan, Korea, and Thailand.

Morgans estimates the impact on FY26 earnings to be around US$25–US$35m.

The broker lowers earnings (EBITDA) estimates by -4% and -7% for FY25/FY26, with a decline in the target price to $4 from $4.15.

Hold rating retained.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.09 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If RWC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.82, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RWC as Accumulate (2) -

Reliance Worldwide flagged a -US$25-35m hit to FY26 EBITDA due to the impact of higher tariffs, which is a -8-11% downgrade to Ord Minnett's previous forecasts.

The broker believes the company's estimate is a worst-case scenario, given it is based on 145% China tariffs but has downgraded earnings forecasts to reflect the update.

Accumulate. Target cut to $5.00 from $5.70.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.09 Difference: $0.91
If RWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.82, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RWC as Neutral (3) -

Following a trading update, UBS lowers FY26 EPS estimates for Reliance Worldwide by -20% due to a weaker outlook for US housing and renovation demand and a projected -US$30m net tariff impact.

Approximately 30% of the group's cost of goods sold (COGS) is exposed to potential US tariffs, note the analysts, but management plans mitigation via sourcing diversification, price increases, and cost management.

The broker expects minimal direct impact in FY27, with exposure to Chinese input production falling significantly by then.

Revenue guidance for North America was downgraded by management, with sales now expected to fall slightly in FY25, and renovation volumes forecast to decline -6% in 2H25 and -3% in 1H26.

Despite this, Reliance remains well positioned in the US plumbing market as the only push-to-connect manufacturer and continues to improve sourcing from alternative regions, highlights UBS.

The broker cuts its price target to $4.50 from $5.60 and maintains a Neutral rating.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.09 Difference: $0.41
If RWC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.82, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SBM as No Rating (-1) -

St. Barbara's 3Q25 production missed Macquarie's forecast by -21% as stronger processing grades were offset by lower milling volumes and recoveries. Cost was 10% higher than expected.

While the company reiterated the previously downgraded FY25 guidance of 55-65koz, the broker is now forecasting 52koz, below the lower end. FY25 cost forecast of $4,493/oz is above the company's $3,900-4,200 guidance.

Additionally, the PFS for Simberi expansion showed a lower average production and higher capex. FY25 EPS forecast cut by -73% and FY26 by -72%. 

The broker is currently on research restriction.

Current Price is $0.32. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SDR as Buy (1) -

Citi cut FY25-27 revenue forecast for SiteMinder by -1-4%, citing weakness in US travel demand and slower monetisation outlook for DR-plus.

The broker has taken the lead from recent updates from travel-related peers, including Booking.com and Airbnb. There's less impact on EBITDA forecasts given the broker's view cost growth will be lower.

EPS forecast for FY25 cut by -2.2% and by -8.7% for FY26. Buy. Target cut to $6.60 from $7.20.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $3.78 Difference: $2.82
If SDR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 75% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.68, suggesting upside of 69.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SMP as Buy (1) -

SmartPay has entered into an exclusivity period with an international bidder (one of the two initial bidders) for 100% cash takeover, forcing Tyro Payments ((TYR)) to withdraw from the acquisition process.

The revised offer from the international bidder is NZ$1.20/share (A$1.12/share), which compares with Tyro's offer of NZ$1.00. The exclusivity period is May 2-June 6, but no competing proposal could be made between May 2-25.

The broker believes the upgraded price still falls short of the premium in two recent deals in the payments space.

Buy. Target unchanged at $1.33.

Target price is $1.33 Current Price is $0.93 Difference: $0.4
If SMP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley cut FY26 earnings forecasts for insurers on lower investment yields, but continues to favour the group on double-digit underlying EPS growth, improving quality and capital management options.

The broker lifted FY25 net profit forecast for Suncorp Group by 1% on an estimated 10% budget beat on catastrophe claims in 2H, partly offset by lower investment earnings.

For FY26-27, the analyst cut net profit forecasts by -3-4% on lower investment yields.

Overweight. Target price $22.75.

Target price is $22.75 Current Price is $20.35 Difference: $2.4
If SUN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.03, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TCG as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans notes the updated mineral resource estimate from Turaco Gold, showing an increase of 40% in contained ounces, with Afema now at 90.8Mt @ 1.2g/t Au for 3.55moz.

The analyst details that Afema has four deposits, all located within the mining licence, and positions Turaco Gold as one of the most attractive undeveloped gold assets on the ASX.

The stock is considered attractively priced. Speculative Buy rating retained, with the target price raised to $1.29 from $1.10.

Target price is $1.29 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: $0.84
If TCG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 187% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates UNI as Buy (1) -

Based on foot traffic/sales trends and observations from social media, Citi believes 2H25 is turning out to be another strong period for Universal Store.

The broker notes average weekly foot traffic at clothing retailers accelerated in recent weeks, and sales also increased in the March quarter, though April data might be softer due to public holidays.

 Social media activity showed the brand continues to gain momentum.

Buy. Target price $10.53.

Target price is $10.53 Current Price is $7.79 Difference: $2.74
If UNI meets the Citi target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.27, suggesting upside of 30.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WBC as Sell (5) -

The key news in Westpac's 1H25 result, according to Citi, was the pressure on net interest margin (NIM) as the bank accelerated deposit growth and funded assets where competition is the highest.

Statutory earnings of $3.317bn missed the broker and consensus forecasts by -3-4%. Citi notes the earnings trajectory could ultimately put pressure on dividends, which is already at a 75% payout. The broker cut the FY26 dividend forecast by -2.6%.

The cash earnings forecast is trimmed by -3-5% for FY25-27, after cutting loan growth estimates and NIM forecasts by -1-2bps.

The analyst's core view is earnings are difficult to achieve when there isn't much scope to lower costs and the outlook for revenue growth is subdued.

Sell. Target unchanged at $27.75.

Target price is $27.75 Current Price is $31.81 Difference: minus $4.06 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.98, suggesting downside of -8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WBC as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie observes Westpac reported a slight miss on expectations for the 1H25 result, but it triggered a reason for the market to review the more updated expectations on margins, expenses, and dividends for the bank.

The analyst expects downward revisions to more closely align with internal estimates, including Macquarie lowering its earnings forecast by around -1%.

The margin was better than anticipated, and costs for the period were in line with guidance, with 2H25 costs expected to rise over 3%, higher than originally flagged.

Target price lowers to $27.50 from $28. No change to Underperform rating.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $31.81 Difference: minus $4.31 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.98, suggesting downside of -8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WBC as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley describes a "sound" interim result for Westpac but maintains an Underweight weighting, suggesting too much optimism is reflected in the share price. Target of $27.30 is unchanged. Industry view remains In-Line.

The broker believes the bank faces emerging margin headwinds, a risk of higher cost growth, and below-system mortgage growth. A reduced scope for further buybacks and dividend growthn is also envisaged.

For the half, group revenue growth remained weak, according to the analysts, easing to circa 0.5% half-on-half from around 1% in 2H24.

Cash profit missed forecasts by Morgan Stanley and consensus by -2.5%, as revenue was -2% lower than forecast. Net interest income (NII) was in line with the analysts' forecast, but trading income and fee income were misses.

Target price is $27.30 Current Price is $31.81 Difference: minus $4.51 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.98, suggesting downside of -8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WBC as Hold (3) -

The broker notes asset quality was sound and provisioning for loan losses remains conservative.

Westpac's Tier 1 capital ratio was better than anticipated, the analyst explains, but the flat dividend might point to a potential 25bps rise in the capital ratio from January 2027.

Net interest margin fell -4bps and opex rose around 3% against the previous half-year, with the analyst expecting a bigger rise in 2H25.

Morgans lowers EPS estimates by -4% to -5% for FY25–FY27 and corresponding downgrades to dividend per share forecasts have been implemented of -3% to -8%.

No change to Hold rating. Target price slips to $28.35 from $29.02.

Target price is $28.35 Current Price is $31.81 Difference: minus $3.46 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.98, suggesting downside of -8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WBC as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett notes Westpac's 1H25 earnings missed market expectations, and interim dividend, while flat vs year ago, missed its forecast and also the consensus.

Net interest margin was -3bps lower sequentially at 1.8%, narrowing more than expected. No quantitative guidance for 2H was provided, likely due to global uncertainty.

The bank warned about cost increase in 2H from the Unite project ramp-up. The broker has not factored any benefit from the project but acknowledges upside risk for earnings of nearly 20% by FY29 if Unite delivers as expected.

EPS forecast for FY25 cut by -0.4% while FY26 was lifted by 0.7%. Lighten. Target unchanged at $27.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $31.81 Difference: minus $4.81 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.98, suggesting downside of -8.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WBC as Buy (1) -

Westpac’s 1H25 cash earnings were broadly in line with the UBS forecast but cost and capital pressures remain key issues, in the broker's view. The interim dividend of 76c compared to the consensus estimate for 80c.

Return on equity fell to 9.4%, impacted by a -6bps credit loss ratio and higher expenses from increased headcount and IT spending, explain the analysts. The net interest margin (NIM) contracted by -3bps half-on-half.

UBS cut its FY25-27 earnings forecasts by -6.1%, -3.6%, and -3.2% respectively.

Cost growth of 5.6% year-on-year and capital pressure from a $12bn risk weighted assets (RWA) increase is weighing on sentiment, suggests UBS. 

Despite lower dividend forecasts and trimmed return on equity (ROE) expectations, UBS sees Westpac as the most credible re-rate story in a fully priced banking sector. The broker lowers the target price to $36.00 from $38.00 and maintains a Buy rating.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $31.81 Difference: $4.19
If WBC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.98, suggesting downside of -8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources