Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates 360 as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes the launch of Life360's Pet Tracking device, with the device sold out on the first day of launch.

The device is deemed as offering incremental subs, annual recurring revenue, and a lock-in for up to 12 months, which are considered to be an 'Offence' strategy by the company. From a defence position, it lifts functionality and touchpoints in the bundle, the analyst states.

Morgan Stanley explains that for many customers, they prefer a customised Gold plan at $13.33 versus an add-on Internet of Things sub (generic with hardware issues) at around $5.55/month.

An installed hardware base on a subscription model is harder to disrupt than free location tracking alternatives. More touchpoints such as elderly monitoring, auto insurance, and card payments for children have been identified by the company.

Overweight rating with $58.50 target retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $58.50 Current Price is $50.14 Difference: $8.36
If 360 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $49.50, suggesting downside of -0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates A2M as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley upgrades a2 Milk Co to Overweight from Equal-weight with a higher target price of $10 from $8.10, as the analyst revisits the stock coverage in the food and beverage sector.

a2 Milk's acquisition of the Pokeno blending and canning facility is considered "transformative" and offers the broker greater confidence in top-line growth for an increased portfolio of China label products.

The vertical integration into manufacturing brings forth margin benefits and diversifies the risk away from Synlait ((SM1)), its manufacturing partner.

Morgan Stanley lifts its earnings estimates by around 7% for FY27/FY28.

Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $9.00 Difference: $1
If A2M meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.17, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AEL as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes Amplitude Energy's September quarter (1Q26) production came in at 6.85PJe (74TJe/day) vs its forecast of 6.7PJe. Gas sales were in line with expectations, though revenue missed due to flat q/q gas prices at $10.16/GJ.

The Orbost plant performed strongly at 65TJ/day, awaiting approval to exceed 68TJ/day, while the Otways output declined naturally.

The broker notes a minor delay in the East Coast Supply Project (ECSP) JV, which is now expected to spud in January 2026. Net debt is seen around $84m post-$150m equity raising.

FY26 guidance for production is 69-74TJe/day, opex $50-54m and capex $125–150m, mainly due to ECSP capex of $110–130m.

The broker trimmed FY26 EPS forecast by -13% after lowering net profit estimate, with no change to FY27-28.

Buy. Target unchanged at 28c.

Target price is $0.28 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.04
If AEL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.32, suggesting upside of 34.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AEL as Outperform (1) -

Amplitude Energy’s September quarter result met Macquarie’s expectations, with production of 6.85PJe in line with the broker's forecast. Realised gas prices of $10.16/GJ were slightly lower-than-expected due to timing and spot exposure.

The broker notes the focus now shifts to the January drilling campaign targeting the Elanora and Isabella prospects, which could add more than 15c per share of value.

Macquarie expects management will exercise its optional rig slot to test the Nestor prospect in March 2026.

Net debt fell to $84m following a $150m equity raise.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and 35c target price.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.11
If AEL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.32, suggesting upside of 34.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AL3 as Buy, High Risk (1) -

AML3D’s September quarter update was broadly in line with Shaw and Partners' expectations. The broker's revenue and earnings (EBITDA) forecasts are unchanged while capital expenditure assumptions are brought forward.

The broker notes the US Navy opportunity for up to ten Arcemy systems, supporting a pipeline valued at $150-200m, alongside 1,600 part orders.

Customer receipts of $2.5m for the quarter were -9% year-on-year, with operating cash flow (OCF) at -$0.59m. AML3D ended the period with $30.7m in cash and no debt.

Shaw observes solid progress in diversification away from defence, citing the $2.3m ArcemyX contract with the Tennessee Valley Authority.

The broker reiterates its 40c target price and Buy, High Risk rating.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.19
If AL3 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 90% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates APE as Overweight (1) -

Eagers Automotive's investor day focused on the track record of the company and the benefits of key partners, which emphasised the growth options, according to Morgan Stanley.

For the analyst, highlights included the alignment across culture, operations, and opportunity, reinforced by equity with CanadaOne and Mitsubishi, as well as "operational synergy" from sharing best practices.

New BYD models and the Denza launch in late 2025 should offer tactical upside, as well as management having levers in a possible downturn. Morgan Stanley states Eagers has "never let a good crisis go to waste."

Overweight rating and $32 target price retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $31.10 Difference: $0.9
If APE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.38, suggesting downside of -11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASB as Neutral, High Risk (3) -

Citi attended the Strategic Shipbuilding Agreement (SSA) briefing in Perth, which on balance is viewed as very positive for Austal due to the large future workload and improved demand visibility.

The SSA will provide infrastructure support and industry consolidation, which should assist the government to receive naval ships more quickly and improve ship complexity over time, the analyst states.

Neutral/High risk rating. Target $7.86.

Target price is $7.86 Current Price is $7.23 Difference: $0.63
If ASB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.94, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AUB as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley points out media comments that AUB Group is in discussions with private equity, with no comment from the group and the stock placed into a trading halt.

The analyst notes another listed Australian insurance broker, PSI, was acquired at a 32.7% premium to the three-month weighted average price.

Morgan Stanley believes the market is failing to understand the market share gains being delivered by brokers, noting the share of Australian premiums written through brokers reached around 50% in 2024. This is over 10% gain in the last decade.

Overweight rating maintained. Target remains at $39. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $35.98 Difference: $3.02
If AUB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.14, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AUB as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett points out an AFR report AUB Group is in takeover talks with private equity firm EQT which prompted a 12% share rally and trading halt.

There was no official response, the broker notes. This morning, the company announced it received a non-binding takeover proposal at $43/share.

The broker's initial analysis (done before the announcement) suggested a takeover price of $42-45/share would be required to attract the Board's attention. The analyst also pointed to recent broker M&A implying $50/share as a fair “agreed” level.

The broker speculates the media leak may be a strategic move by parties involved to test market or negotiation reactions.

Overall, the broker suggests a takeover would likely require $50/share to secure shareholder support.

Buy. Target unchanged at $36.67.

Target price is $36.67 Current Price is $35.98 Difference: $0.69
If AUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.14, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AUB as Neutral (3) -

Management at AUB Group has paused trading following reports suggesting potential private equity interest, with UBS noting speculation that Swedish-based EQT may be preparing a takeover bid.

The broker highlights strong global private equity activity in insurance broking, representing 60-70% of transactions, and sees local interest as unsurprising given recent sector takeovers and subdued valuations.

The analysts apply acquisition multiples from the Ardonagh/PSC Insurance deal (24.8x PE) which implies a valuation of around $47 per share for AUB Group, or $44 per share allowing for the company's typical discount.

UBS retains its $35.50 target price and Neutral rating.

Target price is $35.50 Current Price is $35.98 Difference: minus $0.48 (current price is over target).
If AUB meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $37.14, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BGA as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter highlights Bega Cheese re-iterated FY26 EBITDA guidance at $215–220m at the AGM despite softer SMP prices and lower milk production.

The company revealed milk supply contracted for FY26 has increased, outperforming the national -2% y/y decline and the south-eastern region pool decline of -3% y/y.

FY27 EBITDA is expected to see a big shift due to the $35-40m operational savings from Strathmerton and PCA closures. FY28 EBITDA target of over $250m was reaffirmed.

Net profit forecast changes by the broker following the update are less than 1%. Buy with an unchanged target price of $7.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $5.34 Difference: $1.66
If BGA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.26, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BTL as Speculative Buy (1) -

Beetaloo Energy’s September quarter update met Morgans’ expectations, with the company advancing toward key milestones ahead of the C-5H flow test.

As background, the company has delivered the largest frac in Australian history at C-5H and is now positioned for a pivotal IP30 flow test ahead of a final investment decision (FID), explains the analyst.

Approvals are nearing completion, notes the broker, with site works for the gas plant underway and a FID expected shortly after.

Morgans highlights Beetaloo’s low-cost, liquids-rich position and the widening valuation gap versus McArthur basin peer Tamboran Resources ((TBN)).

Morgans maintains a Speculative Buy rating and a 70c target price, down from 71c.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.415
If BTL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 146% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CKF as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Collins Foods’ 2025 Investor Day reaffirmed Morgans’ confidence in the company’s growth outlook, with guidance for low- to mid-teens FY26 profit growth reiterated.

The broker highlights opportunities to unlock further volume growth in Australia through enhanced customer experience, full digital rollout, productivity gains, and new store formats such as T-line kitchens and dual drive-thrus.

These initiatives are already driving double-digit transaction growth in remodelled stores, observe the analysts.

In Europe, Morgans sees strong potential from the planned rollout of 40-70 new KFC stores in Germany over five years, supported by improved brand management and capital discipline.

Morgans downgrades to Accumulate from Buy due to recent share price appreciation and retains a $12.20 target price.

Target price is $12.20 Current Price is $10.95 Difference: $1.25
If CKF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.70, suggesting downside of -1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CVW as Buy (1) -

ClearView Wealth's September quarter update was consistent with Morgans’ expectations, with claims experience tracking within target ranges and new business up 13% year-on-year to $9.6m.

Operating efficiencies have improved the cost-to-income ratio, highlights the broker, supported by technology simplification and the migration to a single cloud-based insurance platform. The latter remains on schedule for completion in the first half of FY26.

FY26 guidance remains unchanged, implying to the analyst 40% earnings growth, with further margin expansion expected into FY27.

Morgans lifts its target price to 73c from 69c and maintains a Buy rating.

Target price is $0.73 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0.135
If CVW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DMP as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -

Morgan Stanley downgrades Domino's Pizza Enterprises to Underweight from Equal-weight, with a drop in target price to $14.60 from $15.55 as the analyst revisits the stock coverage in the food and beverage sector.

The share price has rallied 15% on positive expectations around the cost-out program, but the medium-term move to sustainable profitability requires re-investment to restore franchise profitability.

Japan and France remain challenging, with no visible strategy for a turnaround, and although the valuation ascribed to the stock is not demanding, Morgan Stanley believes there are few reasons for ongoing re-rating, with execution risks still in place.

Target price is $14.60 Current Price is $15.45 Difference: minus $0.85 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.36, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ELS as Buy (1) -

After initiating coverage just a day earlier, Bell Potter has lifted the target price on Elsight to $2.0 from $1.90 following the September quarter (3Q25) update.

While an earnings update was not provided, the broker reckons the company has achieved profitability in FY25, forecasting EBIT of US$9.4m at a margin of 50.3% for 2H25.

The update showed 3Q25 revenue rose to US$8.7m, up 19x y/y and 1.3x y/y, driven by deliveries to a European drone defence OEM. Gross margin for Hardware was 80%, Cloud Service 82% and Data Usage 66%.

Cash flow was strong with US$5.6m operating cash flow. Order book stood at US$10.2m, suggesting to the broker its US$23.9m FY25 revenue estimate is 99% secured.

EPS forecast for FY26 upgraded by 2% and by 1% for FY27. Buy retained.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $0.57
If ELS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FND as Buy (1) -

Findi's trading update at the Morgans Conference pointed to a softer FY26 outlook, impacted by integration delays and slower rollout of Brown Label ATM contracts, explains the broker.

FY26 revenue guidance of $100-105m and earnings (EBITDA) of $10-12m were both below the broker's expectations, reflecting a roughly six-month delay in achieving operational targets.

Management expects a return to normal run rates by the fourth quarter, supported by a new $30m debt facility to enhance balance sheet flexibility.

The analyst highlights strong underlying revenue growth of around 60% and sees the planned India IPO as a key catalyst.

Buy rating retained, but target price lowered to $5.43 from $7.57.

Target price is $5.43 Current Price is $2.17 Difference: $3.26
If FND meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 150% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GGP as Outperform (1) -

Greatland Resources’ September quarter result aligned with Macquarie’s expectations, with production up 9% on the consensus forecast and costs (AISC) of -$2,155/oz, also a 10% beat.

The broker highlights recovery improvements of around 6% q/q to 89% from optimised plant performance, with FY26 guidance unchanged at 285koz at costs (AISC) of -$2,600/oz, weighted to the first half.

Production is tracking at 28% of the guidance mid-point, highlights the broker.

Macquarie notes the Havieron definitive feasibility study (DFS) remains on track for December and sees it as a key catalyst.

Outperform rating and a $10.50 target price unchanged..

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $7.51 Difference: $2.99
If GGP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.50, suggesting upside of 53.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GYG as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has initiated coverage on Guzman y Gomez with an Outperform rating and a $31.10 target price, viewing the recent -40%-plus share price retreat as an attractive entry point.

The broker highlights the company's strong market share gains in the quick-service restaurant (QSR) segment.

This is supported by a consumer preference for “fresh” offerings and growth across breakfast and late-night dayparts (9pm to midnight), which represent around 20% of sales.

Comparable sales are expected to re-accelerate as cost-of-living pressures ease, suggests the broker.

It's thought expansion remains on track, with openings comparable to McDonald’s early growth phase and long-term potential of around 900 restaurants.

Target price is $31.10 Current Price is $26.04 Difference: $5.06
If GYG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.35, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HLO as Buy (1) -

Helloworld Travel's AGM update exceeded Morgans’ expectations, with FY26 earnings (EBITDA) guidance of $64-72m, up 15-30% on FY25 and well ahead of consensus at $57.2m.

The upgrade reflects both organic growth and recent acquisitions, note the analysts, including the purchase of the remaining 50% of Mobile Travel Holdings for -$36m.

Strong forward bookings, with FY26 air departures up 11%, support management’s positive outlook, in the broker's opinion.

Morgans lifts its FY26-28 forecasts by up to 6%, noting upside from further consolidation opportunities.

The broker reiterates its Buy rating and raises its target price to $2.50 from $2.32.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.90 Difference: $0.6
If HLO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.39, suggesting upside of 26.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HLO as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett updated forecasts for Helloworld Travel following a strong update on forward bookings at the AGM and the remaining 50% acquisition of travel agency Mobile Travel Agents (MTA).

MTA is expected to add $440m or 12% to TTV and boost EBITDA by $10m in FY26. The broker forecasts net cash of $39m in FY26 and no debt, leaving the company with options through $58m Webjet Group ((WJL)) holdings.

At the AGM, the company stated forward bookings were strong for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. EBITDA guidance for FY26 was provided at $64–$72m, including interest income and MTA contribution.

The broker lifted FY26 EPS forecast by 27% and FY27 by 31%.

Hold. Target rises to $1.93 from $1.79.

Target price is $1.93 Current Price is $1.90 Difference: $0.03
If HLO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.39, suggesting upside of 26.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IAM as Speculative Buy (1) -

Income Asset Management’s September quarter update showed solid group momentum, assesses Morgans, with revenue up around 35% year-on-year to $5.4m.

The broker notes bond and loan funds under administration (FUA) rose 12% to $2.7bn.

Management is now targeting average margins of 5-7bps on custodial holdings following the Perpetual Corporate Trust transition, the custody and administration arm of Perpetual ((PPT)).

Excluding one-off fraud costs, quarterly earnings (EBITDA) were positive at $294k. Total fraud-related costs are estimated at -$3m, though no client funds were affected, notes the broker.

Morgans maintains a Speculative Buy rating and an unchanged 8.4c target price.

Target price is $0.08 Current Price is $0.03 Difference: $0.056
If IAM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 200% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates KYP as Buy (1) -

At the AGM, Kinatico provided a September quarter (1Q26) update showing revenue rose 13% y/y to $9.1m vs its forecast of $8.9m. SaaS revenue was up 58% y/y to $4.8m, marginally higher than the broker's $4.7m estimate.

EBITDA grew 21% y/y to $1.4m, indicating margin expansion.

Given the beats were modest vs the broker's forecasts and it is only 1Q, no revisions were made to estimates.

Buy. Target rises to 45c from 35c on a higher multiple and lower WACC in the valuation.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.075
If KYP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates KYP as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Kinatico’s September quarter trading update was broadly in line with Shaw and Partners’ expectations, featuring steady software-as-a-service (SaaS) revenue growth and strong transactional revenue.

The broker highlights SaaS revenue of $4.8m, equating to annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $19.2m, up $1.7m quarter-on-quarter, with none of this as yet derived from Kinatico Compliance.

Transactional revenue reached $4.3m and earnings (EBITDA) rose 21% year-on-year to $1.4m. The company remains debt-free.

The analysts note early success in Kinatico Compliance’s small-to-medium business (SMB) strategy, with seven customers onboarded without sales or implementation support, signaling scalability.

The broker observes upside potential from geographic expansion (not factored into the current share price) into South-East Asia during 2026. Given established relationships with multinational partners, execution risk for this expansion strategy is seen as low.

Shaw raises its target price to 46c from 37c and retains a Buy, High Risk rating.

Target price is $0.46 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.085
If KYP meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LLC as Buy (1) -

Lendlease Group's shares trade at around a -12% discount to the June-end NTA of $6.55, which infers to Citi that the market is anticipating a write-down of assets to lower values, which will impact earnings.

The analyst believes this event is unlikely as commercial real estate improves.

Management has previously flagged $2bn of CRU asset realisations in FY26, with sales in place for two assets worth $1bn, including the Australian retirement business and TRX Mall in Malaysia. Both are due for completion at year-end (2025).

Citi considers upside risks to the shares on a share buyback post-asset sales and possible development project wins.

Buy. Target price $6.70.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $5.76 Difference: $0.94
If LLC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.46, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MAD as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Bell Potter had a look at cyclical drivers for Mader Group, concluding the key operating markets remain in growth mode, despite recent softening in North America..

In Australia, the broker notes the iron ore majors reported a strong September quarter, supporting the company's equipment services demand.

North American activity softened since the June quarter, with carload growth slowing for coal (3.8% y/y vs 15% at FY25), quarry materials (2.7% vs 5.9%), and metallic ores (-11% vs -8.5%), the broker observed.

The broker will look ahead to OEM and dealer commentary over the coming weeks to gauge sentiment among resource companies and investment levels.

The broker re-iterated the FY26 guidance of over $1bn revenue and net profit of over $65m looks conservative based on positive momentum at FY25-exit. 

Target unchanged at $9. Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy following recent share price gains.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $9.50 Difference: minus $0.5 (current price is over target).
If MAD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MAF as Accumulate (2) -

Morgans notes MA Financial announced a robust 3Q2025 trading update across all segments and believes the company can exceed all its FY26 growth targets.

Asset management gross inflows rose 50% y/y, while net flows lifted 59% y/y, with assets under management up 34% y/y.

The MA Money loan book achieved a 125% rise to $4bn on the prior year, with a robust pipeline of corporate advisory work.

Morgans raises its EPS estimates by 2%-4% on higher growth assumptions.

No change to Accumulate rating, with a lift in target price to $10.80 from $10.63.

Target price is $10.80 Current Price is $9.79 Difference: $1.01
If MAF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates MAU as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Magnetic Resources’ September quarter update aligned with Shaw and Partners' expectations, featuring the Lady Julie definitive feasibility study (DFS) and the granting of all mining leases.

The study outlines a maiden 1moz reserve at 1.72g/t gold, note the analysts, with production of 147koz per year over 11.5 years and post-tax net present value of $1.1bn.

Magnetic ended the quarter with $37.8m in cash after a $35m placement, leaving it well funded for growth, in the broker's opinion.

Shaw highlights the project’s shovel-ready status, with financing and optimisation updates due in early 2026. The broker's Buy, High Risk rating and $3.98 target price are maintained.

Target price is $3.98 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: $2.6
If MAU meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 188% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MEI as Outperform (1) -

The September quarter update for Meteoric Resources met Macquarie’s expectations. Management advanced multiple milestones including its prefeasibility study (PFS), a $42.5m placement, and approval to build a pilot plant for the Caldeira Project in Brazil.

The broker notes the preliminary licence for Caldeira is now expected in the December quarter, with no delay to the overall project schedule.

Meteoric ended the quarter with $44.4m in cash, leaving it well funded to progress development, suggests the analyst.

While the broker sees short-term volatility in rare earth markets, the investment case is considered intact.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and a 39c target price.

Target price is $0.39 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.195
If MEI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.33, suggesting upside of 73.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MEI as Speculative Buy (1) -

No new information in Meteoric Resources' September quarterly, but Ord Minnett notes it was an active quarter that included a pre-feasibility study and maiden ore reserve statement.

The construction start of a pilot plan and receipt of local consent within the Caldeira project environment zone were other highlights.

The broker updated its model to incorporate updated commodity price forecasts, resulting in a lift to the target price to 35c from 30c.

Speculative Buy maintained.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.155
If MEI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 79% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.33, suggesting upside of 73.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MEK as Buy (1) -

Morgans upgrades Meeka Metals to a Buy from Speculative Buy with a higher target of 33c from 31c, post the first ever quarter of production since commissioning the Murchison Gold project.

Positively, Meeka generated positive free cash flow, and grade was 38% better than the feasibility study, with lower processing costs of -29%. The analyst points to better all-in-sustaining costs.

Morgans lifts its FY26 gold production to 50koz from 47koz previously, as grade performance is better, and continues to believe management can execute well.

Target price is $0.33 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.135
If MEK meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MME as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans highlights MoneyMe announced a robust 1Q26 trading update with book growth of 26% y/y due to a rise in originations of 18%.

Gross revenue grew 15% y/y, and the run rate aligns with the analyst's 1H25 gross revenue forecasts of around $120m.

Morgans continues to rate the stock Speculative Buy with a 21c target price, with no major changes to its earnings forecasts.

Target price is $0.21 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.095
If MME meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 83% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NEM as Buy (1) -

Newmont Corp's September quarter result was broadly in line with UBS’s expectations, producing 1.42moz of gold at costs (AISC) of -US$1,566/oz and generating free cash flow (FCF) of US$1.6bn, ahead of consensus.

FY25 guidance was reaffirmed despite royalty pressures, note the analysts, though 2026 production guidance was softer, leading UBS to trim its forecast by -150koz to 5.59moz.

The outlook for Nevada Gold Mines remains positive, with news reports of potential structural changes to Newmont’s 38.5% stake under review with the aim of gaining control, highlights the broker.

UBS cites spot gold prices above forecast as a key tailwind and sees growth resuming in 2027. The target price is raised to $160 from $140. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $160.00 Current Price is $123.19 Difference: $36.81
If NEM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $154.20, suggesting upside of 30.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NWL as Overweight (1) -

Netwealth Group has applied for financial assistance under the Superannuation Industry Supervision Act, with the platform provider highlighting 1,088 members were affected by First Guardian, with total exposure of around -$101m.

Management has applied under Part 23 of the Act, which includes loss from theft or fraud, a substantial reduction in fund assets affecting benefit payments, and public interest justification.

Morgan Stanley notes it is too soon to assert any possible outcomes but remains Overweight on the stock due to the long-term structural tailwinds and the group's competitive differentiation.

Target at $41.50 retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $41.50 Current Price is $31.72 Difference: $9.78
If NWL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.55, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PLS as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

Pilbara Minerals’ September quarter result exceeded Morgans’ expectations, with production, costs, and revenue all ahead of forecasts. The broker's target price is raised to $2.80 from $2.30.

Spodumene output of 225kt beat the broker's forecast by around 11%, aided by 78% recoveries, while costs (FOB) of -$540/t were -10% below forecast. Revenue rose 30% quarter-on-quarter to $251m, though cash fell to $852m.

Morgans highlights ongoing government engagement under the Australia-US critical minerals framework, with management preferring shared infrastructure support over price floors.

As the broker believes recent share price strength reflects sentiment rather than fundamentals, Morgans' rating for Pilbara Minerals is downgraded to Sell from Hold.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $3.28 Difference: minus $0.48 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.61, suggesting downside of -15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PNR as Hold (3) -

Pantoro Gold's September quarter production was a significant miss vs Bell Potter's forecast, but the broker takes comfort in a stronger start made in the current December quarter.

Gold production in 1Q26 came in at 19,551oz at cost (AISC) $3,139/oz, missing the forecast for 25,120oz production and cost of $2,174/oz, and guidance of 26,250oz at $1,950-2,250/oz.

The shortfall was due to the loss of a remote bogger after a rockfall at the OK underground mine, reducing head grade to 2.2g/t (from 2.8g/t), the broker observes.

The December quarter production is tracking at 9koz/month, and the October cash build was $18-25m, the broker highlights. The company is now developing higher-grade zones to diversify and stabilise production at Norseman.

EPS forecast for FY26 trimmed by -7% but lifted by 5% for FY27. Hold. Target unchanged at $5.35.

Target price is $5.35 Current Price is $5.24 Difference: $0.11
If PNR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.59, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PNR as Trim (4) -

Pantoro Gold announced a weaker than anticipated 1Q26 operating result, even compared to Morgans' existing "conservative" expectations.

Group gold production of 19.6koz was well below the analyst's estimate of 24.4koz and consensus at 25.2koz.

Management retained FY26 guidance of 100-110koz at all-in-sustaining costs of $1,950-$2,250/oz.

Morgans has reduced forecast gold production to 104koz from 109koz previously and increased all-in-sustaining costs to $2,302/oz from $2,036/oz. The miner experienced lower grade and lower ounce production with higher unit costs.

No change in Trim rating, with target lowered to $5.02 from $5.96.

Target price is $5.02 Current Price is $5.24 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If PNR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.59, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PNR as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Pantoro Gold made a disappointing start to FY26, with 1Q26 production and cost, and consequently, cash balance missing Ord Minnett's estimates and the consensus.

The broker, however, views this as temporary, caused by sequencing issues at Scotia and a trapped bogger at the OK underground mine.

The company maintained FY26 production and cost guidance as production recovers at a faster rate at northern Scotia and on improved consistency at OK.

The broker is forecasting production of 102koz, at the lower end of 110-110koz guidance, and costs higher at $2,347/oz vs guidance of 1,950-2,250/oz.

EPS forecast for FY26 trimmed by around -7%. Target cut to $6.40 from $6.65.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Accumulate on -15% share price fall since the broker moved to Accumulate.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $5.24 Difference: $1.16
If PNR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.59, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PRU as Neutral (3) -

Perseus Mining reported mixed 1Q26 results with production of 100koz, some -2% below consensus, and all-in-sustaining costs of US$1,463/oz, Citi observes.

Edikan and Sissingue had softer performance, offset by better performance at Yaoure. Production guidance remains in place for a more heavily weighted 2H26, with underground development starting at Yaoure in 3Q26 and construction at Nyanzaga.

A resource update is anticipated from the latter towards the end of FY26. Cash and bullion came in at US$837m, up US$10m q/q, with around US$160m per quarter being generated from existing mines.

Neutral/High risk rated. Target set at $4.80, unchanged.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.73 Difference: $0.07
If PRU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.26, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PRU as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Following recent share price weakness, Macquarie upgrades its rating for Perseus Mining to Outperform from Neutral.

The company's September quarter result was broadly in line with the broker's expectations, with 100koz gold produced and costs (AISC) of -US$1,463/oz, a 7% beat.

FY26 guidance of 400-440koz at costs (AISC) of -US$1,460-1,620/oz is unchanged, with output expected to lift in the second half as grades improve at Edikan and Sissingue.

Cash fell -US$8m to US$744m, impacted by working capital and currency movements, though the company remains debt-free and holds US$94m in bullion, highlights the analyst.

Macquarie lifts its FY26 earnings forecast 1% and trims FY27-28 slightly. Target unchanged at $5.50.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.73 Difference: $0.77
If PRU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.26, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PRU as Buy (1) -

Perseus Mining’s September quarter result was consistent with UBS’s expectations, with 100koz gold produced at costs (AISC) of -US$1,463/oz. The latter outperformed the broker's forecasts and is tracking within FY26 cost guidance of -US$1,460-1,620/oz.

The broker notes production will lift through the year as the Yaoure CMA underground mine ramps up, with first ore targeted for early 2026.

Perseus remains debt-free, holding US$837m in cash and bullion plus a 17.8% Predictive Discovery ((PDI)) stake.

Buy rating and $6.15 target retained.

Target price is $6.15 Current Price is $4.73 Difference: $1.42
If PRU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.26, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates REA as Buy (1) -

UBS previews upcoming September quarter results for REA Group, predicting a solid start to FY26 with strong depth contribution despite softer listing volumes.

National listings fell -8% y/y (Proptrack data) but appear to be stabilising, suggest the analysts. Depth revenue is forecast to rise 8% in the quarter, supported by the adoption of new packages such as Amax and Luxe.

The broker forecasts FY26 depth growth of 7.5% and mid-teens earnings growth over FY26-28.

Macro conditions remain supportive, in the analysts' view, with house prices forecast to rise 7% in 2025.

UBS trims its target price to $285 from $291 due to India divestments and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $285.00 Current Price is $220.90 Difference: $64.1
If REA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $274.32, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates RMS as Buy, High Risk (1) -

In line with Shaw and Partners' forecasts, Ramelius Resources’ September quarter result featured 55,013oz of production at costs (AISC) of -$1,836/oz. Operating cash flow (OCF) of $159.1m translated to free cash flow (FCF) of $129m.

The broker notes realised prices averaged $4,528/oz, aided by hedging. The upcoming integrated studies are expected to outline a path to 500koz annual production by FY30 through Dalgaranga and Rebecca-Roe integration.

Ramelius ended the quarter with $827.7m in cash and gold after acquisition and tax payments, explain the analysts.

Shaw maintains a Buy, High Risk rating and $3.64 target price.

Target price is $3.64 Current Price is $3.30 Difference: $0.34
If RMS meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.39, suggesting upside of 37.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SFR as Neutral (3) -

Sandfire Resources’ September quarter result was broadly in line with Macquarie’s expectations. There was 35.5kt copper equivalent production, 2% ahead of the broker's forecasts, and earnings (EBITDA) of US$137m, a 5% beat.

The broker attributes the result to higher realised copper prices of US$9,772/t and an additional shipment from Motheo, which drove a 9% revenue beat.

Regulatory changes in Botswana add some uncertainty, highlights the analyst, with new rules allowing the government to increase its project stake to 24% from 15%.

Macquarie expects an updated Black Butte pre-feasibility study in December, a key catalyst for strategy.

Neutral rating kept. Target price increased to $15.50 from $15.00.

Target price is $15.50 Current Price is $16.03 Difference: minus $0.53 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.50, suggesting downside of -6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Underweight (5) -

Sandfire Resources reported a weaker than anticipated 1Q26 update, with Morgan Stanley pointing to a miss on copper production of -3.5% versus estimate and consensus.

Matsa missed by -4.5% and Motheo by -2.4% on the broker's forecasts, as well as coming in lower on consensus.

Group C1 costs lifted 14.8% against Morgan Stanley's forecast, but were in line with consensus, due to lower grades at Motheo and by-products at Matsa.

On balance, the financial results were a slight miss on consensus, and the FY26 guidance across all metrics remains unchanged. The miner expects a pick-up in the following three quarters to achieve FY26 guidance.

No change in $11.45 target price. Underweight rating. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $11.45 Current Price is $16.03 Difference: minus $4.58 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.50, suggesting downside of -6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SFR as Hold (3) -

Morgans upgrades the Sandfire Resources target price to $15.80 from $12.50 while retaining a Hold rating post 1Q26 production results, which were softer q/q but met expectations.

Production remains weighted to 2H26 on a 48%/52% basis, with the miner retaining FY26 guidance.

Costs at Matsa were higher (US$85/t), with Motheo reporting a decline in costs of -12% q/q to US$42/t, with revenue of US$328m due to better shipments and lower charges.

Net debt declined by -50% q/q to US$62m, and a net cash position is anticipated as early as next quarter.

Target price is $15.80 Current Price is $16.03 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.50, suggesting downside of -6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SFR as Accumulate (2) -

Sandfire Resources’ September quarter result was broadly in line with Ord Minnett’s forecasts. The broker notes management is tracking well to FY26 guidance.

Annualised copper production was 157kt copper equivalent, with grade variability at Matsa offset by stronger zinc output, explain the analysts.

Costs at Motheo were -$42/t, slightly below Ord Minnett's expectations, and are expected to rise modestly to -$44/t as the A4 ramp-up progresses.

Sandfire is nearing a net cash position, highlights the broker, paving the way for potential capital returns given its $262m franking balance.

Ord Minnett trims FY26 earnings by -3%, raises its target price to $16.50 from $16.30, and retains an Accumulate rating.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $16.03 Difference: $0.47
If SFR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.50, suggesting downside of -6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SFR as Sell (5) -

Sandfire Resources delivered a steady September quarter, slightly ahead of UBS’s expectations, producing 24.6kt copper, equal to 23% of FY26 guidance.

The broker notes strong performance at Motheo, offsetting cost pressures at Matsa, leading to group revenue of US$328m and earnings (EBITDA) of US$157m. Net debt reduced to US$62m, with the company expected to be net cash by December.

UBS forecasts copper prices to average US$6/lb in FY27, supporting above-consensus earnings.

The broker maintains a cautious view, citing valuation constraints despite strong execution.

UBS retains a Sell rating and raises its target price to $15.55 from $14.55.

Target price is $15.55 Current Price is $16.03 Difference: minus $0.48 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.50, suggesting downside of -6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley lowers the target price on Treasury Wine Estates to $6.45 from $6.90, as the analyst revisits the stock coverage in the food and beverage sector.

The broker has adopted a more conservative approach to its Treasury Americas estimates, removing any assumed payments from Republic National Distributing Company (RNDC).

The company lacks any visible catalysts for a re-rating, and there are ongoing risks around further earnings downgrades.

Equal-weight rating retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $6.45 Current Price is $6.22 Difference: $0.23
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.28, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates VEA as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley expects a slightly positive reaction to Viva Energy's 3Q2025 update, including improving crack spreads, a levelling out of convenience stores ex-tobacco, and ongoing benefits from synergies.

The Geelong refining margin (GRM) was US$11.30/bbl, up 43% on the prior quarter and up 18% y/y. The company expects fully optimised production from mid-November when the ultra-low sulphur gasoline unit comes online.

Sales volumes over the quarter were 4.2BL, up 2% q/q, which met the analyst's forecast and were -2% below consensus, with growth in avgas offsetting lower store numbers and weakness in retail.

Convenience sales of $392m declined -8% q/q and -17% y/y, including a fall in tobacco sales of -15% q/q. Management expects a more robust 4Q2025 season with lower costs.

Target set at $2.15 with an unchanged Equal-weight rating. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.77 Difference: $0.385
If VEA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.59, suggesting upside of 43.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VEA as Buy (1) -

Viva Energy's September quarter update was mixed, according to Ord Minnett. Ongoing weakness is noted across the Convenience & Mobility and Commercial & Industrial segments, offset by a strong result from the Geelong refinery.

Refining margins surged to US$11.30/bbl from US$8.20/bbl in the first half, highlights the broker. Current margins are estimated near US$12.00/bbl, supporting modest earnings forecast upgrades.

Convenience sales fell -12.5% year-on-year due to lower tobacco demand, though recent stabilisation offers some optimism, in the analyst's view.

Ord Minnett trims its target price to $3.30 from $3.40 and maintains a Buy rating.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $1.77 Difference: $1.535
If VEA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 87% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.59, suggesting upside of 43.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VEA as Buy (1) -

Viva Energy’s September quarter update was slightly softer than expected by UBS, with convenience sales still affected by illicit tobacco. Positively, the broker believes sales may be near the floor following new enforcement measures and stabilisation since July.

The broker notes a 3.5% improvement in gross margin within the Convenience & Mobility segment, aided by better product mix and pricing. Additionally, $35m in synergies and -$80m in group-wide cost savings remain on track.

Refining margins stayed strong at US$11.3/bbl, highlight the analysts, supported by the successful catalytic cracker turnaround.

UBS lifts its 2025 earnings forecast by 1% and lowers 2026-27 by up to -3%. The target price is reduced to $2.65 from $2.75. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $1.77 Difference: $0.885
If VEA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.59, suggesting upside of 43.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes the Williams transaction has provided a valuation reference point for Woodside Energy's Louisiana LNG at around US$1.6bn for HoldCo, which is basically in line with its expectations.

The analyst attributes around US$160m to HoldCo from the US$250m Williams transaction, which assists Woodside's balance sheet, with the energy producer retaining a 90% stake in HoldCo.

The stock remains Neutral rated with a $25.50 target price.

Target price is $25.50 Current Price is $24.69 Difference: $0.81
If WDS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.78, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WTC as Neutral (3) -

WiseTech Global has announced this morning officers of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) and the Australian Federal Police (AFP) visited its Sydney office yesterday.

They executed a search warrant regarding alleged trading in WiseTech shares by Richard White and three employees from late 2024 to early 2025.

In a quick response, Macquarie points out Richard White was not an employee during this period, but it remains too early to draw conclusions, given no further details have been released.

Past references suggest cases like this can take up to 18 months to fully resolve, the broker points out.

As the broker remains confident in the company's long-term ability to execute, share price weakness is seen as likely providing an opportunity for investors with a longer time horizon.

No changes to forecasts.

Target price is $108.50 Current Price is $85.02 Difference: $23.48
If WTC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $123.99, suggesting upside of 70.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates WZR as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Wisr’s September quarter update was broadly in line with Shaw and Partners' expectations, featuring $146.8m in loan originations, up 90% year-on-year, and reaffirmed FY26 revenue growth guidance of 15%.

The loan book rose 15% to $868m, highlights the analyst, with credit quality improving as the average score lifted to 807 and net losses declined to 1.63%. The net interest margin (NIM) increased 3.7%, though was temporarily impacted by warehouse setup costs.

Automation reached 82% of approvals, and instant settlements via the New Payments Platform improved customer access, notes the broker.

Buy/High Risk rating and 7c target are maintained. 

Target price is $0.07 Current Price is $0.03 Difference: $0.036
If WZR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 106% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources