Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates ALL as Equal-weight (3) -

Recent data shows FY21 year-to-date Digital revenues grew 15% albeit growth has slowed in recent months. RAID, launched in March 2019, continues to perform strongly, generating monthly revenues well ahead of all prior company games at the same stage.

The company's latest success EverMerge (launched May 2020) is monetising very strongly, according to the analyst though it has slowed since March. It is now contributing around 9% of monthly Digital revenues.

Morgan Stanley retains its Equal-Weight rating and $41 target price. There is no industry rating.

Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $42.24 Difference: minus $1.24 (current price is over target).
If ALL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $43.52, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates API as Neutral (3) -

Australian Pharmaceutical Industries has rejected Wesfarmers ((WES)) proposal to acquire the company at $1.38/share stating that the 18.7% premium to 3-month volume weight average price (VWAP) of $1.163 is “significantly below the Australian market average for transactions of this nature.”

Citi continues to expect a transaction is more likely than not, and notes applying the long-term average takeover premium of 30% to the
3-month VWAP implies a price of $1.51/share or an additional $65m over the original proposal.

Neutral rating and target price of $1.38 are both retained.

Target price is $1.38 Current Price is $1.44 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If API meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.39, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates API as Equal-weight (3) -

The Australian Pharmaceutical board has rejected the $1.38 takeover offer from Wesfarmers ((WES)), concluding it undervalues the company.

While Morgan Stanley estimates a potential valuation scenario of $1.45-1.75,  it also sees some risk to the outlook, given the highly
competitive and regulated industry the company operates in.

Looking at recent history, the analyst highlights Wesfarmers walked away from Lynas Rare Earths ((LYC)), after its board rejected an offer. The broker maintains its Equal-weight and $1.40 price target. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.44 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If API meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.39, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ARF as Equal-weight (3) -

Goodstart Early Learning, Arena REIT's largest tenant (contributing around 30% to rent revenue) has agreed to extend all its leases by 25 years. The REITs weighted average lease expiry (WALE) is now around 20 years, making it the longest within Morgan Stanley's coverage.

In return, the REIT has agreed to install solar panels across 87 of its childcare centre assets (leased to Goodstart Early Learning), helping the tenant save on power bills going forward. The broker considers this a win for both parties.

Morgan Stanley maintains its Equal-weight rating and $3.66 target price. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $3.66 Current Price is $3.54 Difference: $0.12
If ARF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.54, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BEX as Add (1) -

BikeExchange has missed Morgans' FY21 revenue forecast by -8%, despite achieving record look through total transaction volume (TTV) and revenue in the fourth quarter. This was due to a sequential slowdown in growth, thought to stem from cycling prior covid tailwinds.

Morgans retains its Speculative Buy rating, and believes the company is well placed to become a conduit for bike retailers to enhance their e-commerce offering. The broker's target price is lowered to $0.31 from $0.34.

The analyst sees continuing additions to the retailer network in Europe and the US as critical to enable the company's e-commerce strategy. FY22 is considered an important year, as the company is increasing investment and needs to demonstrate tangible benefits.

Target price is $0.31 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.1
If BEX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BXB as Overweight (1) -

While Brambles has outperformed the market since the third quarter update in April, Morgan Stanley believes the discount to market remains too steep and raises its target price to $12.90 from $12.30. The Overweight rating is maintained. Industry view is In-Line.

In a results preview, the broker expects FY21 profit of US$549m, up 9% from the previous corresponding period, and broadly in-line with consensus expectations. The analyst's forecasts reflect 5% underlying revenue growth and 6% underlying profit growth in FY21.

Morgan Stanley forecasts a 4% increase in constant FX sales growth, and a 6% improvement in earnings (EBIT).

Target price is $12.90 Current Price is $11.68 Difference: $1.22
If BXB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.23, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CIA as Neutral (3) -

Champion's Irons better than expected first-quarter FY22 earnings of C$406, 5% ahead of Citi's estimates benefited from positive provisional pricing gains of C$61m.

All-in cost increased by 12% quarter-on-quarter to C$72.6/t partly due to maintenance activities and also Phase II construction activity that was running in parallel.

Citi expects a strong net cash position of around C$213m at the end of first quarter FY22 to pave the way for dividend payments in FY22.

Given the first quarter actual mark to market for iron ore prices the broker raises FY22 earning per share estimates by 7%.

Neutral rating retained and target price increases to $7.25 from $6.60.

Target price is $7.25 Current Price is $7.54 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If CIA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CIA as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reports high realised prices drove strong revenue and underlying earnings for Champion Iron in the first quarter, beating the broker's expectations by 15% and 16% respectively. 

Macquarie expects high spot iron ore pricing to continue to drive significant earnings upside momentum, and has increased earnings forecasts for FY22 and FY23 by 55% and more than 200%. 

Additionally, the Bloom Lake phase 2 expansion remains on track and completion is expected by mid-2022. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $9.90 are retained. 

Target price is $9.90 Current Price is $7.54 Difference: $2.36
If CIA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CMM as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Capricorn Metals will acquire Mt Gibson Gold for $39.6m, with mining studies to commence immediately. The transaction will comprise $25.6m cash and $14.0m in Capricorn Metals shares. 

Mt Gibson represents an inferred 2.1m ounce resource. The company will spend around $5m at the project over the first year for infill and extensional drilling, geotechnical and metallurgical testing, and environmental studies.

Macquarie notes while potential for another development project is positive and presents a key opportunity for the company to diversify its production base, the ramp-up of Karlawinda is likely to be more meaningful for Capricorn Metals in the near-term. 

Given recent share price strength, the rating is downgraded to Underperform and the target price increases to $2.20 from $2.10.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.13 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If CMM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CPU as Neutral (3) -

While Computershare's FY21 guidance of earnings per share (EPS) -8% (ex entitlement) or 51.5c/share appears achievable in UBS's view, the broker remains more cautious around the guidance outlook for FY22 with the broker's EPS estimate of 48.8c being around -11% below consensus at 55c.

While UBS sees earnings upside risk for Computershare if interest rates rise, the broker thinks these factors are unlikely to play out on a 12-month view.

UBS notes Computershare's outer-year earnings remain heavily reliant on global bond yields (75% weighted to USD) with 15% earnings upside to consensus in FY23 and 20% in FY24 if the forward curve is applied.

Neutral rating and the target of $16.25 are both unchanged.

Target price is $16.25 Current Price is $16.04 Difference: $0.21
If CPU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.07, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Equal-weight (3) -

After a read through on CSL's peer Grifols, Morgan Stanley expects second half plasma revenue growth at 6%, supported more by albumin and specialty products,  with circa 7% price benefit on Ig (mix & price).

The analyst also expects CSL's collections to improve though they do not have the immediate benefit of the inorganic growth Grifols has generated from recent center acquisitions.

Morgan Stanley retains its Equal-weight rating and $271 price target. In-Line industry view.

Target price is $271.00 Current Price is $291.02 Difference: minus $20.02 (current price is over target).
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $302.01, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FCL as Outperform (1) -

According to Macquarie, the timing of Fineos Corporation Holdings' cash collection in July appears to have been reflected in EUR22.7m cash receipts from customers in the fourth quarter, down -15% on cash receipts in the prior quarter. 

The broker notes Fineos is on track to hit the upper end of revenue guidance of EUR102-105m given average utilisation of 88% in FY21. 

The company also signed two new clients, American Public Life Insurance and Beneva, during the quarter. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $4.36 from $4.63. 

Target price is $4.36 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.46
If FCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.42, suggesting upside of 19.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FCL as Hold (3) -

During the June quarter cash receipts were down -11%, which Ord Minnett notes marks the third consecutive quarter of declines. The company continues to invest in product development.

While the headline was a key point of concern, the broker will be looking for commentary in the FY21 results regarding debt balances and the quantum of receipts that have slipped into FY22 in order to better understand the underlying rate of cash burn.

Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $4.01 from $4.10.

Target price is $4.01 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.11
If FCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.42, suggesting upside of 19.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates FMG as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

June quarter production beat expectations as did price realisation. This was offset by higher costs. Higher costs and increased capital expenditure could prove sticky, Credit Suisse suspects, given the inflationary backdrop.

The broker also suspects efficiency initiatives are more of an attempt to limit cost escalation rather than reduce costs.

Credit Suisse envisages an opportunity to take profits on valuation grounds and downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Target is reduced to $22 from $23.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $26.30 Difference: minus $4.3 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $22.14, suggesting downside of -11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Outperform (1) -

Fortescue Metals Group has reported a strong fourth quarter, with shipments and realised costs 3% and 5% ahead of Macquarie forecasts respectively. This strong result more than offsets higher cash costs, up 7% on Macquarie expectations.

The company is guiding to FY22 shipment range of 180-185m tonne, which is 1-4% higher than Macquarie had forecast, while capital expenditure guidance of US$2.8-3.2bn was 16-30% higher than Macquarie's expectations. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $27.00 are retained. 

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $26.30 Difference: $0.7
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.14, suggesting downside of -11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Underweight (5) -

While Fortescue Metals Group had strong fourth quarter production, Morgan Stanley increases forecast sustaining capex at the company's operations as well as for the new hub development in FY25.

The broker retains its Underweight rating and lowers its target price to $18.55 from $18.65, and sees a risk of a declining iron ore price, and a widening low grade discount. Industry view: Attractive.

The analyst notes a still respectable FY22 EV/EBITDA multiple of 4.1x and dividend yield of 12%, though these are forecast to change to 8x and 5% in FY23.

Target price is $18.55 Current Price is $26.30 Difference: minus $7.75 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $22.14, suggesting downside of -11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FMG as Reduce (5) -

Fortescue Metals Group reported strong fourth quarter shipments of 49mt, exceeding the 45mt forecast by Morgans, with a realised price close to expectations. There was considered solid price realisation at 86%, albeit with discounts continuing to grow post quarter-end.

FY22 guidance surprised the broker on high sustaining capex and an aggressive planned renewables spend. Post dividend, it's thought there are downside risks to the record share price. Morgans retains its Reduce rating and lowers its target price to $19.40 from $20.

While the group is in great shape and paying big dividends, the analyst expects current valuations will prove unsustainable against any sign of moderating iron ore prices.

Target price is $19.40 Current Price is $26.30 Difference: minus $6.9 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $22.14, suggesting downside of -11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FMG as Buy (1) -

Production was very strong with record iron ore shipments and prices in the June quarter. Net cash at the end of the quarter of US$2.7bn was better than Ord Minnett expected, and should augur well for dividends when full year results are reported on August 30.

The broker remains positive about Fortescue Metals amid attractive valuation metrics and a strong iron ore market. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $29 from $30.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $26.30 Difference: $2.7
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.14, suggesting downside of -11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

Fortescue Metals FY22 capex guidance is higher than expected and the group expects Fortescue Future Industries Pty Ltd to spend -$400-600m on decarbonisation projects.

UBS notes Iron Bridge is progressing well with the first module delivered during the June quarter FY21. The project is now 69%
owned by Fortescue with Baosteel reducing its share.

In the broker's opinion, the risk/reward is balanced with high cash returns supportive near-term, while iron ore prices are vulnerable.

Neutral rating and the price target of $18 are both unchanged.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $26.30 Difference: minus $8.3 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $22.14, suggesting downside of -11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Equal-weight (3) -

While Insurance Australia Group's FY21 cash profit was solid, Morgan Stanley notes below the line refunds and staff cost provisions reduce FY21 excess capital by around -$400m, versus the broker's prior forecast.

The broker highlights reported loss of -$427m was well below an estimated -$183m, on below-the-line charges. Management has guided to "low single-digits" FY22 gross written premium (GWP) growth.

The analyst feels lockdowns are depleting the group's safety buffer on Business Interruption (BI) provisions, doesn't believe the stock is cheap and sees few positive catalysts.

Morgan Stanley's Equal-weight rating is unchanged and the target price falls to $4.80 from $4.85. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.90 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.27, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IPL as Buy (1) -

Within a market update, Incitec Pivot noted strong second-half performance from firm commodity prices and solid manufacturing
performance, with manufacturing plants on line and performing well.

Citi notes so far, urea prices are up 90% year-to-date (YTD), DAP is up 50% YTD and potash is up 40% YTD driving fertiliser and explosive prices.

Citi reiterates that the current outlook fits with the broker's thesis and recently raised Incitec Pivot's earnings forecasts following strong price momentum in fertiliser markets.

Buy rating and the target price of $3.00 are both retained.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.71 Difference: $0.29
If IPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.02, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IPL as Outperform (1) -

Incitec Pivot is in a better position, Credit Suisse assesses, having completed the turnarounds and with all plants operating at or close to capacity. The company has confirmed cost reductions and technology-driven revenue improvements for FY22/23.

The broker assesses the market is in reasonable shape, with the exception of coal in the US. Fertiliser pricing is also favourable for the short term. The company has reaffirmed guidance for $60m in EBIT uplift from cost savings.

Outperform maintained. Target is reduced to $2.99 from $3.02.

Target price is $2.99 Current Price is $2.71 Difference: $0.28
If IPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.02, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IPL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reports that all Incitec Pivot plants are online and reporting no manufacturing issues for the first time in a while. The broker highlights WALA has now reported 8 weeks of consistent performance post re-start, but notes this needs to be sustained.

According to the broker, Incitec Pivot has been able to capture the cycle to drive strong second half performance on firm commodity prices.

While Macquarie has reduced its realised ammonia pricing forecast to US$495 per tonne from US$540 per tonne on through-the-cycle pricing, the broker sees potential upside and is forecasting FY22 realised ammonia pricing of US$380 per tonne.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $3.05 from $3.04. 

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.71 Difference: $0.34
If IPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.02, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IPL as Overweight (1) -

With the company confirming the Waggaman plant is producing at nameplate, Morgan Stanley expects the solid performance from all manufacturing assets will now allow investors to focus on the upside potential in fertiliser.

Management has also reiterated its intention to deliver $40-50m in manufacturing benefits by FY23. Still, the broker suspects it will take some time for the market to rebuild confidence. Overweight maintained. Industry view: In-Line. Target is $2.95.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.71 Difference: $0.24
If IPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.02, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IPL as Add (1) -

Morgans upgrades forecasts for higher fertiliser prices and stronger-than-expected production at Waggaman. It's felt Incitec Pivot's trading update reiterated the company is on-track for a strong second half, given firm fertiliser prices and a solid manufacturing performance.

While the analyst recognises Waggaman needs to run properly for an extended period of time for the market to fully rerate the stock, management is confident manufacturing issues have now been rectified.

Morgans lifts its target price to $3.02 from $2.92, due to higher fertiliser prices, a slightly lower Australian dollar and the greater-than-expected production from Waggaman. The Add rating is unchanged.

Target price is $3.02 Current Price is $2.71 Difference: $0.31
If IPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.02, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IPL as Buy (1) -

Realised ammonia prices of US$442/t June quarter were below Ord Minnett's estimates. This was due to internal pricing for Dyno Nobel based on through-the-cycle benchmark averages rather than spot prices.

At current commodity prices and currency, the broker calculates Incitec Pivot could deliver net profit of $585m in FY22. Buy rating retained. Target is raised to $3.20 from $3.10.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.71 Difference: $0.49
If IPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.02, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IRE as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Credit Suisse expects organic growth will be driven by the UK, Australian superannuation and OneVue. The company's update, which reaffirmed guidance, supported the broker's expectations.

While the outlook has improved and there is takeover interest, although the offer of $15.30-15.50 was rejected, Credit Suisse believes growth acceleration is required to warrant further upside.

Hence, the rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target is raised to $13.50 from $11.00.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $14.25 Difference: minus $0.75 (current price is over target).
If IRE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.74, suggesting downside of -8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IRE as No Rating (-1) -

Iress reaffirmed FY21 guidance yesterday, announced a $100m buyback, and set an FY25 earnings target 30% above the broker's forecast. Iress also announded it had received a new offer from private equity of $15.30-15.50 cash.

The board has sent private equity home to try again. The broker can say no more, being now on research restriction.

Current Price is $14.25. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $12.74, suggesting downside of -8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IRE as Hold (3) -

Iress has rejected an indicative takeover offer from EQT Fund Management pitched at $15.30-15.50, however, it has provided limited non-public information to the bidder.

Meanwhile, while the first half result missed Morgans expectations, FY21 guidance was reaffirmed. The broker views the company is trading at fair value, noting the potential takeover may lend upside to its Hold rating. Morgans increases its target to $13.45 from $11.37.

Management detailed its five-year strategic plan to double profit and EPS, and the analyst sees strong strategic merit in the company's technology and product plans.

Target price is $13.45 Current Price is $14.25 Difference: minus $0.8 (current price is over target).
If IRE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.74, suggesting downside of -8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHG as NeutralNeutral (3) -

Janus Henderson’s second-half result is a 16% beat driven by higher assets under management (AuM) from market strength and
outperformance and even stronger performance fees than Citi expected.

Citi sees the potential for a further rerate if flows turn, and lifts earnings per share estimates by 9% in FY21-23.

The broker notes the lack of second-quarter flows from the intermediated channel is disappointing and believes there remains some risk surrounding the trends in US small and mid-cap strategies.

Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $58.10 from $54.

Target price is $58.10 Current Price is $53.64 Difference: $4.46
If JHG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $53.33, suggesting downside of -7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JHG as Equal-weight (3) -

The June quarter earnings beat Morgan Stanley's estimates by around 16% amid better operating margin and performance fees.

Given the buyback of US$200m has been announced earlier than expected and outflows are better, the broker expects a positive reaction in the stock.

Equal-weight retained. Target is $54.70. Industry view is In-line. 

Target price is $54.70 Current Price is $53.64 Difference: $1.06
If JHG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $53.33, suggesting downside of -7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KAR as Outperform (1) -

While Karoon Gas' June quarter production and revenue proved a little better than forecast, costs were also higher. Production declines at Buana are tracking in line with expectation.

Karoon is continuing to conduct a strategic review and will make an announcement late this year. In the meantime, the broker notes elevated oil prices are making a material difference to Karoon's balance sheet.

Outperform and $1.60 target retained.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $0.3
If KAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.82, suggesting upside of 45.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates KAR as Overweight (1) -

Karoon Energy grew both production and sales during the June quarter amid less downtime. Morgan Stanley observes the company's first financial year as a producer in Brazil is proving successful and cash generation is strong at a time when Brent oil has rebounded from its lows.

For longer-term investors the broker also suggests the stock offers potential for further M&A in Brazil, although execution on existing work is likely to be the priority. Overweight maintained. Attractive industry view. Target is $1.85.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $0.55
If KAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.82, suggesting upside of 45.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates KAR as Add (1) -

Morgans assesses a strong fourth quarter operational result from Karoon Energy. There's considered upside risk should the current Bauna performance be maintained, while at the same time reducing downtime.

The broker makes only minor adjustments to forecasts, and rolls the financial model forward to the December quarter, resulting in a fall in Morgans' target price to $2 from $2.10.

The analyst notes reports of significant buyer interest in Bauna crude, which saw it track Brent prices higher during the quarter.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $0.7
If KAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.82, suggesting upside of 45.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates LFG as Outperform (1) -

Ahead of the results on August 30, Liberty Financial has indicated underlying net profit will be in excess of $220m, before any adjustment to collective provisioning.

Credit Suisse adjusts forecasts to allow for bad debts and assumes realised losses will be in line with historical averages. On the asset side, forecasts for loan growth in secured finance are reduced because of elevated competition.

Outperform maintained. Target is reduced to $8.10 from $9.00.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $7.57 Difference: $0.53
If LFG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.32, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MQG as Sell (5) -

While containing few surprises, Macquarie Group's update saw annuity-style businesses slightly ahead of Citi's expectations, benefiting from a disposition fee from winding up the Macquarie Infrastructure Corporation.

The group has revised its dividend payout ratio to 50-70% (from 60-80%), which Citi takes as a cue that investment will be accelerated on top of recent acquisitions in Waddell & Reed and the AMP Capital global businesses.

Citi notes while this is a positive indicator for medium-term earnings, the challenge builds for the group through coming quarters as they need to cycle heightened volatility in the second half, particularly in commodities.

Sell rating and $140 target price both retained.

Target price is $140.00 Current Price is $157.13 Difference: minus $17.13 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $161.86, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates MQG as Neutral (3) -

There was no change to the short-term outlook from the company's quarterly update, considering the environment is uncertain. Macquarie Group continues to maintain a cautious stance and a conservative approach to capital, funding and liquidity.

The pay-out ratio has also been lowered to a range of 50-70% from 60-80%. Credit Suisse maintains a Neutral rating and $150 target.

Target price is $150.00 Current Price is $157.13 Difference: minus $7.13 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $161.86, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley had expected the first quarter would be flat yet Macquarie Group indicated it was up significantly on the prior corresponding quarter despite the large FX headwinds.

Nevertheless, the broker only expects a modest reaction given a lower dividend target. The pay-out range has been lowered to 50-70% to allow additional flexibility.

The broker suggests this could signal more capital intensive growth ahead and also believes the structural growth in renewable assets is an opportunity worth pursuing.

The Overweight rating and $175 target price are maintained. Industry view in-line.

Target price is $175.00 Current Price is $157.13 Difference: $17.87
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $161.86, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MQG as Add (1) -

Morgans assesses a relatively solid first quarter update. Management noted improved trading conditions, with group operating income significantly up on the previous corresponding period. 

The analyst notes the group's payout ratio has rarely gone above 70% in the last five years, so gives little weight to the dividend payout ratio target being reduced to 50%-70% from 60%-80%.

Morgans makes slight upgrades to its forecasts, maintains its Add rating and increases its target price to $172.3 from $171. The analyst believes the company has capitalised well on the covid environment to make some measured/value-add acquisitions.

Target price is $172.30 Current Price is $157.13 Difference: $15.17
If MQG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $161.86, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MQG as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett observes a strong start to FY22 with first quarter operating profit indicated as "significantly up" on the prior corresponding quarter. There was also positive commentary on client activity in the commodities and global markets division.

The broker believes the growth prospects are bright with ongoing capital deployment across divisions and the stock remains a key preference in the sector. Accumulate retained. Target is raised to $172 from $170.

Target price is $172.00 Current Price is $157.13 Difference: $14.87
If MQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $161.86, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NAB as Hold (3) -

Much faster than expected. Brokers said it in response to ANZ Bank's share buyback announcement earlier in the month. Ord Minnett repeats the same mantra following today's announcement that NAB will commence a $2.5bn buyback in August.

Ord Minnett highlights it has already accounted for a total of $4.5bn in buybacks in the years ahead. As said, it's merely the timing that has come as a surprise.

CommBank ((CBA)) is expected to announce the first step of a $5bn buyback at its results release in August while Westpac ((WBC)) is not expected to announce its buyback until November, when the FY21 results are up for release. Westpac too is expected to, ultimately, buy back shares worth a total of $5bn.

Target price is $27.80 Current Price is $25.77 Difference: $2.03
If NAB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.38, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHF as Neutral (3) -

Visa statistics are strong lead indicators for nib Holdings' international students & workers insurance business, the broker notes. Student visas declined -32% in the June quarter and workers -49%.

Nib’s pricing remains some of the cheapest amongst major insurers for these products. Business remains depressed, but while lockdowns continue in NSW there is some upside risk to the broker's forecast.

Neutral and $6.30 target retained.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $7.07 Difference: minus $0.77 (current price is over target).
If NHF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.45, suggesting downside of -9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NST as Equal-weight (3) -

Following the 2021 investor briefing, Morgan Stanley now includes forecasts for post-merger synergies with Saracen ((SAR)). This has removed much of the upside potential from the previously unquantified synergy benefits

 Meanwhile, guided gold production, costs and capital expenditure were all weaker than prior forecasts. The broker finds the stock fairly valued, already factoring in improvements at Pogo and healthy resource conversion across all sites.

Equal-weight rating. Target is reduced to $10.60 from $11.10. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $10.60 Current Price is $10.13 Difference: $0.47
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.43, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PAN as Outperform (1) -

The highlight of Panoramic Resources' quarterly report, the broker suggests, was being able to secure key management and technical staff in the current tight labour market.

Savannah Nickel is fully funded and with underground mining commencing ahead of schedule, an earlier processing re-start and production ramp-up are on the cards. Spot nickel prices are currently 15-22% above the broker's FY22-23 forecasts.

Outperform and 20c target retained.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.03
If PAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PAR as Reduce (5) -

In the wake of the fourth quarter cashflow report, Morgans was surprised by the level of cash required to navigate the osteoarthritis (OA) regulatory submission up to this point.

With the major trial-related costs yet to come, and in the absence of any partnership deals, the analyst doesn't rule out the need for additional capital.

The key catalyst remains the potential acceptance of the investigational new drug (IND) application from the US FDA for the company's OA program, originally lodged in March, explains the broker. Morgans retains its Reduce rating and $1.69 target price.

Target price is $1.69 Current Price is $2.22 Difference: minus $0.53 (current price is over target).
If PAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PBH as Outperform (1) -

The company has announced a $400m capital raising, a year earlier than Credit Suisse expected, while June quarter revenue was slightly lower than forecast.

The broker believes the capital raising is evidence of the company aggressively moving in on new markets and assesses there are several scenarios for the long-term, including takeover and organic success on the positive side or, on the negative side difficulties overcoming high marketing costs and poor execution.

The broker retains an Outperform rating and reduces the target to $13.30 from $16.15 on lower margin assumptions, accelerating operating losses and a higher share count.

Target price is $13.30 Current Price is $11.29 Difference: $2.01
If PBH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PBH as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes the PointsBet business in the US continues to build market share. Active customers grew around 25% over the June quarter with equal contributions from the US and Australian business.

The company has clarified its medium-term aspirations, targeting operations in 18 US states by the end of 2022. For Ord Minnett this gives context to the $400m capital raising just announced.

Ord Minnett assesses the stock is trading at a discount to valuation and retains a Buy rating. Target is revised down to $13.60 from $15.90.

Target price is $13.60 Current Price is $11.29 Difference: $2.31
If PBH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as Outperform (1) -

Pilbara Minerals's June quarter performance was weak, the broker suggests, with shipments in line but higher costs impacting on cash flow. The ramp-up of the Ngungaju project is being accelerated to take advantage of the strong spodumene spot market.

With prices strong, Pilbara is looking to ramp up spot sales through its online digital platform. What can't you buy online now?

Progressing downstream plans offers a key upside catalyst, the broker suggests. Outperform retained, target rises to $2.00 from $1.60.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.72 Difference: $0.28
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.57, suggesting downside of -11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PLS as Hold (3) -

Production in the June quarter was lower than Ord Minnett expected because of reduced plant utilisation. Meanwhile, expansion plans are tracking according to expectations.

The company is making an effort to achieve a higher proportion of sales exposed to spot prices through the BMX digital sales platform, given the tightness in the market for spodumene.

Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating and raises the target to $1.60 from $1.50.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.72 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.57, suggesting downside of -11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PPM as Outperform (1) -

Ahead of the first half results on August 24, Credit Suisse modestly increases forecasts for bad debts and assumes a reduced release of provisioning.

The net profit guidance in prospectus forecasts for FY21 is $121m and the broker's estimates are 2% ahead of this. The broker retains an Outperform rating and reduces the target to $3.25 from $3.55.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.46 Difference: $0.79
If PPM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QAN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley assesses the recovery outlook remains uncertain yet remains positive, believing there is significant upside once activity returns to normal.

The broker now assumes second-half domestic capacity is around 60% instead of 70% which drives a substantial reduction to FY21 EBITDA estimates.

Given the persistence of disruptions, the broker also lowers estimates for FY22 and now assumes 80% normal domestic capacity. Around 10% of pre-pandemic international capacity is assumed for FY22.

Overweight maintained. Target is $7.00. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $4.62 Difference: $2.38
If QAN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.75, suggesting upside of 25.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates RIO as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse found the first half dividend reaffirms the investment case despite iron ore shipments underperforming. The broker lifts net profit estimates for 2021 by 2.4%.

While assuming a 70% pay-out in the second half, the net cash position is growing and could support stronger dividends, in the broker's opinion. Outperform rating and $133 target maintained.

Target price is $133.00 Current Price is $134.17 Difference: minus $1.17 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $134.71, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Outperform (1) -

After a meeting with Rio Tinto, Macquarie came away noting country risk across the portfolio is heightened. Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia
(covid) and Richards Bay Minerals in South Africa (unrest and safety) are of near-term concern.

Having benefited from copper price tailwinds in the first half, management continues to focus on copper volume growth. Macquarie maintains its Outperform rating and $162 target price.

The analyst points out, iron-ore prices continue to drive earnings upgrade momentum, with the company trading on 2021-23 free cash flow yields of more than 20% at spot prices.

Target price is $162.00 Current Price is $134.17 Difference: $27.83
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $134.71, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Sell (5) -

UBS believes the iron ore price is the key driver of Rio Tinto and sees the risk/reward as skewed to the downside despite high cash returns near-term.

UBS notes Rio's spot 2022 free cash flow yield is 19%, falling to 5% at US$80/t.

The broker expects iron ore supply to lift in second half FY21 and demand to fall, resulting in a material build in inventories and lower iron ore prices.

The broker has trimmed 2021-23 earnings estimates by -3% due to higher costs & forex.

Sell rating is unchanged and the target price is lowered to $102 from $104.

Target price is $102.00 Current Price is $134.17 Difference: minus $32.17 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $134.71, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RMS as Outperform (1) -

The fourth quarter result was in-line with Macquarie's  expectations with key production metrics released prior, while FY22 guidance was better on production but weaker on all-in sustaining costs (AISC).

The broker highlights the release of various studies, which present potential upside to the base case, will be important catalysts over 2021. Mine life extensions are considered a key positive catalyst for Edna May in particular.

Macquarie trims its target price to $1.90 from $2 and retains its Outperform rating.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.65 Difference: $0.25
If RMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.11, suggesting upside of 23.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RMS as Overweight (1) -

June quarter production was in line with expectations while guidance for FY22 has come in 3% above Morgan Stanley's forecasts. Gold production guidance has increased to 260-300,000 ounces while growth capital expenditure of $50m is in line with the broker's estimates.

Morgan Stanley notes drilling at Shannon has showed the mine becomes sub-economic at depth while Vivien remains promising, with a resource extension planned. Delays have likely contributed to weakness at Edna May, the broker suggests.

Overweight maintained with a target of $2.20. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.65 Difference: $0.55
If RMS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.11, suggesting upside of 23.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RRL as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes Regis Resources delivered an overall strong quarter with the acquisition of Tropicana starting to contribute.

The broker has updated gold prices on the assumption they have peaked.

As a result, Citi's FY22, FY23, and FY24 earnings guidance reduce -17%, -11%, and -11% respectively, with lower gold prices of -6%, -6%, and -5% respectively.

Citi maintains a Neutral rating and the target price is lowered to $2.80 from $3.10 in line with recent changes.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: $0.18
If RRL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.49, suggesting upside of 35.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates RRL as Outperform (1) -

Regis Resources had a record quarter at Duketon with total production of 356,000 ounces. The main issues, Credit Suisse notes, were grade and recovery at Moolart Well owing to metallurgically complex ore that was encountered ahead of expectations.

The broker notes the FY22 outlook is weighted towards the second half with guidance for 460-515,000 ounces. The stock remains a top pick amongst intermediate gold stocks and Credit Suisse retains an Outperform rating. Target is reduced to $4.00 from $4.40.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: $1.38
If RRL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.49, suggesting upside of 35.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RRL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley updates FY21-23 estimates following the June quarter production and FY22 guidance. Production was largely in line with estimates.

The broker considers the miner a quality operator with the addition of Tropicana providing diversity. A decision is expected on McPhillamys in the first half as well as an updated definitive feasibility study, both of which are considered key catalysts for the stock.

Overweight maintained. Target is reduced to $3.45 from $3.50. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: $0.83
If RRL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.49, suggesting upside of 35.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SBM as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley found the fourth quarter mixed, with gold production -8% below its estimates although costs were 11% better. FY22 guidance is below expectations, largely because of delays to the Simberi mill re-start and weaker grades at Touquoy.

Still, the broker points out the gold at the latter has not been lost and will be deferred to future production while Beaver Dam is unlikely to contribute much to FY23.

Delivery is considered key to St Barbara and Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating. Target is reduced to $2.40 from $2.70. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $1.73 Difference: $0.67
If SBM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.14, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SFR as Outperform (1) -

Sandfire Resources produced a June quarter in line with expectations. FY21 production was 70,800t of copper and 39,500 ounces of gold. While DeGrussa is not overly material to value because of the short mine life, the outlook remains solid in the broker's view.

Botswana is increasingly in focus and the civil strife currently in South Africa is not affecting the company's plans to date, as Namibia offers an alternative supply chain if required. Outperform rating retained. Target is $8.55.

Target price is $8.55 Current Price is $6.90 Difference: $1.65
If SFR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.60, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SFR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Sandfire Resources' fourth quarter result had been largely pre-released and production and cost guidance for FY22 was in-line with estimates. 

Development at Motheo is now underway and delivering this project on time and on budget is a key catalyst, believes the broker. However, the analyst delays the forecast development of Black Butte by three years.

Macquarie retains its Outperform rating and lowers its target price to $9.80 from $10.20.

Target price is $9.80 Current Price is $6.90 Difference: $2.9
If SFR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.60, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SFR as Hold (3) -

Sandfire Resources produced better copper grades than Ord Minnett expected in the June quarter and issued FY22 guidance of 64-66,000t copper. From a cost perspective, at US$1-1.10/lb, the guidance was seen as disappointing.

The broker would become more constructive on the stock at a lower entry point and retains a Hold rating, considering the uncertainty regarding the mine life at DeGrussa and legal challenges at Black Butte.

That said, with the expansion of Motheo looking increasingly likely, further upside is still considered possible. Target is raised to $7.50 from $7.30.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $6.90 Difference: $0.6
If SFR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.60, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TSI as Buy (1) -

Operating cash outflows were better in the June quarter, Ord Minnett observes although total costs per year are a key issue.

The broker welcomes the commentary surrounding discussions to expand the limit of the current facility and now forecasts an additional drawdown and future capital raising to facilitate growth.

As a result of higher operating expenses and the potential for additional funding requirements, the broker reduces the target to $2.71 from $3.03 and adds a Speculative grade to its Buy rating.

Target price is $2.71 Current Price is $1.98 Difference: $0.73
If TSI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates URW as Sell (5) -

Citi is not as optimistic as management at the global shopping mall owner, instead commenting a lot more uncertainty needs to resolve itself before the broker can switch to a more positive view.

As far as the interim report itself is concerned, Citi thinks it presents a mixed picture for the business, albeit with the added observation it is early in the recovery process, still.

Management has not provided guidance for FY21 and thus further re-affirms Citi's view: too many uncertainties. Rating thus remains Sell. Target price EUR27.70 (well below the share price).

Current Price is $5.79. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.70, suggesting downside of -19.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates URW as Sell (5) -

First half results reflected the impact of lockdown restrictions yet even without this Ord Minnett finds few reasons to be positive on the stock.

Management provided no guidance for 2021 and the main areas of concern include increased vacancies at US flagship malls, rising average cost of debt and the majority of leasing activity being short term.

The broker continues to avoid the stock until there is more progress on deleveraging the balance sheet and retains a Sell rating with a target of $3.70.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $5.79 Difference: minus $2.09 (current price is over target).
If URW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.70, suggesting downside of -19.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources