Australian Broker Call
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March 10, 2020
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| CAR - | CARSALES.COM | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | UBS |
| DHG - | DOMAIN HOLDINGS | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
| MGR - | MIRVAC | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
| ORA - | ORORA | Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight | Morgan Stanley |
| REA - | REA GROUP | Upgrade to Buy from Sell | UBS |
| SGP - | STOCKLAND | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | UBS |
| SWM - | SEVEN WEST MEDIA | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | UBS |
AIZ AIR NEW ZEALAND LIMITED
Transportation & Logistics
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Overnight Price: $1.89
Credit Suisse rates AIZ as Neutral (3) -
Air New Zealand has suspended earnings guidance amidst uncertainty regarding the duration and scale of the coronavirus outbreak. Guidance issued on February 24 for pre-tax profit of NZ$300-350m has been withdrawn.
The company has noted, over the last week, there has been additional weakness in demand and a decline in bookings across the network.
Credit Suisse is not surprised by the decision and revises forecasts to reflect the net effect of lower capacity guidance, lower yields and lower oil costs.
Importantly, the broker assumes that weakness in passenger demand will likely coincide with a lower oil price and offset the cost benefit. Neutral maintained. Target reduced to NZ$2.00 from NZ$2.49.
Current Price is $1.89. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 20.88 cents and EPS of 18.98 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 11.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 20.88 cents and EPS of 22.02 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.1, implying annual growth of 26.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 12.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates AIZ as Neutral (3) -
Air New Zealand has withdrawn its FY20 guidance because of a deterioration in conditions in the market. The most significant reduction in demand has occurred on Asian, US, trans-Tasman and domestic routes.
The airline plans to reduce overall capacity by -10% for the remainder of the second half, including a reduction to Asia of -26%. UBS considers it unlikely revised earnings guidance will be provided before June.
The broker's downside scenario signals earnings-per-share downside of up to -45%, which incorporates the inability to access lower jet fuel prices until hedging rolls off in late 2020. Target is reduced to NZ$1.86 from NZ$2.00. Rating is Neutral.
Current Price is $1.89. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 20.88 cents and EPS of 20.41 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 11.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 26.57 cents and EPS of 26.29 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.1, implying annual growth of 26.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 12.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $13.53
Macquarie rates AMC as Outperform (1) -
Amcor is a clear winner from a lower oil price, Macquarie asserts, via lower resin and other raw material costs. However, this is likely to be a lagged benefit.
Amcor is the most defensive stock in the broker's coverage and with 86% of sales exposed to the consumer sector it provides a resilient earnings profile. Outperform rating and $16.95 target maintained.
Target price is $16.95 Current Price is $13.53 Difference: $3.42
If AMC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.69, suggesting upside of 23.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 66.52 cents and EPS of 90.38 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 69.46 cents and EPS of 99.39 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 103.7, implying annual growth of 10.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 76.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -
After assessing the impact of the -30% slump in global oil prices, Macquarie notes the petroleum division accounts for just 8% of the valuation.
If oil prices remain at current levels, the broker expects BHP Group will likely delay Scarborough and slow down expenditure on longer-term options such as Trion.
Still, buoyant iron ore prices are driving upgrade momentum, with Macquarie assessing the spot price scenario is generating increased earnings of 16% in FY21 and 25% in FY22. Outperform maintained. Target is $42.
Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $29.00 Difference: $13
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $39.64, suggesting upside of 36.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 196.16 cents and EPS of 293.96 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 305.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 201.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 180.18 cents and EPS of 255.45 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 297.4, implying annual growth of -2.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 199.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CAR CARSALES.COM LIMITED
Automobiles & Components
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Overnight Price: $15.26
UBS rates CAR as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -
While there are short-term risks stemming from the impact of coronavirus, UBS makes only minor changes to online media forecasts, assessing valuations are long-dated.
The broker suspects the greatest impact from the current epidemic is likely to be on new listing volumes.
Rating is upgraded to Neutral from Sell. Target is reduced to $15.65 from $17.50.
Target price is $15.65 Current Price is $15.26 Difference: $0.39
If CAR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.25, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 56.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.4, implying annual growth of 64.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.6. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 62.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.1, implying annual growth of 11.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $27.15
Ord Minnett rates CTX as Hold (3) -
Ord Minnett considers the significant one-day fall of 15.3% following a slump in crude oil prices is overdone. Refining margins could fall, although cuts to production could offset this.
Retail fuel margins are expected to increase, while volumes and product mix are additional positives. Hold rating and $35 target maintained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $27.15 Difference: $7.85
If CTX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $34.60, suggesting upside of 27.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 193.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 182.0, implying annual growth of 20.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 108.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 217.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 205.8, implying annual growth of 13.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 122.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
DHG DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED
Real Estate
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Overnight Price: $2.68
UBS rates DHG as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
While there are short-term risks stemming from the impact of coronavirus, UBS makes only minor changes to online media forecasts, assessing valuations are long-dated.
The broker suspects the greatest impact from the current epidemic is likely to be on new listing volumes.
Rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target is steady at $3.60.
Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.68 Difference: $0.92
If DHG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.37, suggesting upside of 25.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.9. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.9, implying annual growth of 45.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $13.89
Morgan Stanley rates GMG as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley estimates a possible -7-17% decline in the valuation should coronavirus materially affect the business.
This is based on the idea that tenants will take longer to commit to expansions and projects will take longer to build and lease.
Earnings guidance should be safe, however, and the broker suspects any major hit to earnings is likely to come in FY22.
Overweight rating. Target is $17.80. In-Line industry view.
Target price is $17.80 Current Price is $13.89 Difference: $3.91
If GMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.68, suggesting upside of 20.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 58.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.8, implying annual growth of -35.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 33.00 cents and EPS of 64.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.5, implying annual growth of 9.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
JHX JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES N.V.
Building Products & Services
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Overnight Price: $26.34
Citi rates JHX as Buy (1) -
Given defensive revenue drivers and global stimulus measures underway, Citi believes an opportunity is emerging and James Hardie remains a preferred exposure.
Having executed the first year of its three-year strategy amid a recovering US housing market, the broker expects high double-digit growth in earnings per share.
Citi reiterates a Buy rating and $36 target.
Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $26.34 Difference: $9.66
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $34.83, suggesting upside of 32.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 71.20 cents and EPS of 119.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 122.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 81.37 cents and EPS of 134.99 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 144.9, implying annual growth of 17.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 84.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates JHX as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett believes the recent sell-off has offered a buying opportunity in James Hardie and an Accumulate rating is maintained.
The broker makes adjustments to its model and trims the target to $32 from $33 because of changes to earnings forecasts.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $26.34 Difference: $5.66
If JHX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $34.83, suggesting upside of 32.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 59.58 cents and EPS of 119.44 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 122.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 71.20 cents and EPS of 134.26 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 144.9, implying annual growth of 17.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 84.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.02
UBS rates MGR as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
UBS reassesses FY22-24 earnings estimates, given recent project acquisitions. The broker envisages growth of 7% from FY21-24 as the business maintains a quality bias and defensive characteristics.
Mirvac is the broker's preferred residential exposure and the rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target is raised to $3.49 from $3.30.
Target price is $3.49 Current Price is $3.02 Difference: $0.47
If MGR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.46, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.20 cents and EPS of 17.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of -36.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.80 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of -4.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.74
Morgan Stanley rates ORA as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -
After the sale of Australasian Fibre Orora intends to return $1.2bn of capital to shareholders. At the first half result management outlined a more aggressive timeframe than Morgan Stanley had expected.
The broker believes the capital management will include a special dividend, a capital return and an on-market buyback.
Incorporating this, the stock appears undervalued and the broker upgrades to Overweight from Equal-weight. Target is raised to $3.50 from $3.30. Sector view is Cautious.
Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $0.76
If ORA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of 25.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.2, implying annual growth of 2.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.35
Morgan Stanley rates OSH as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley assesses, while energy stocks are under severe pressure on the drop in the oil price, Australian energy stocks are better positioned to handle a period of weaker oil prices.
During the last oil price correction in 2014-16 equity raisings occurred across the sector as companies were mid way through a heavy LNG construction cycle. This time around, the balance sheets are better, the analysts highlight.
Oil Search has been hardest hit, the broker notes, because of the uncertainty in PNG. One of the main risks is that expenditure in PNG is set by the global majors and this means it is unlikely these projects will move forward in the current climate.
Overweight rating, In-Line industry view. Target is $7.80.
Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $3.35 Difference: $4.45
If OSH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 133% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.77, suggesting upside of 102.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 30.31 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 30.51 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.0, implying annual growth of 2.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $96.77
UBS rates REA as Upgrade to Buy from Sell (1) -
While there are short-term risks stemming from the impact of coronavirus, UBS makes only minor changes to online media forecasts, assessing valuations are long-dated.
The broker suspects the greatest impact from the current epidemic is likely to be on new listing volumes.
However, UBS points out investors have shown a willingness to look through short-term volume outcomes for REA Group in the past. Rating is upgraded to Buy from Sell. Target is steady at $110.
Target price is $110.00 Current Price is $96.77 Difference: $13.23
If REA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $103.19, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 123.00 cents and EPS of 246.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 241.8, implying annual growth of 203.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 122.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 148.00 cents and EPS of 295.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 287.3, implying annual growth of 18.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 146.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.34
UBS rates SGP as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -
UBS upgrades to Neutral from Sell on the basis of an improving residential market. The company recently increased FY20 residential volume guidance by 4%.
A strengthening macro backdrop supports longer-term margins and volumes. While retaining a preference for Mirvac Group ((MGR)) the broker acknowledges Stockland has a higher financial and operating leverage to improving residential markets. UBS maintains a $4.80 target.
Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.34 Difference: $0.46
If SGP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.77, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 27.60 cents and EPS of 37.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.2, implying annual growth of 178.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 28.70 cents and EPS of 37.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.7, implying annual growth of 1.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.11
UBS rates SWM as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -
Despite the difficulties in assessing the quantum and duration of the coronavirus epidemic, UBS believes there is enough evidence to reduce media forecasts based on the negative impact on consumer & business confidence, and industry risk stemming from cancelled advertising.
The broker now assumes a -10% decline in the second half in both the metro free-to-air TV and radio markets.
Seven West is downgraded to Neutral from Buy, given heightened refinancing risk, while there is limited visibility on asset sales. Target is reduced to $0.12 from $0.30.
Target price is $0.12 Current Price is $0.11 Difference: $0.01
If SWM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.32, suggesting upside of 187.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 1.8. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.9, implying annual growth of -3.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 1.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
TYR TYRO PAYMENTS LIMITED
Business & Consumer Credit
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Overnight Price: $2.92
Ord Minnett rates TYR as Accumulate (2) -
The first eight days of March have revealed a deceleration in growth for Tyro Payments on an absolute basis but Ord Minnett notes, when adjusted on the same-day basis, the growth rate remains robust at around 26%.
Given the company is a pure domestic operator and has a strong balance sheet it is expected to grow above system and consolidate market share in the medium term. Accumulate maintained. Target is reduced to $4.45 from $4.60.
Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: $1.53
If TYR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of minus 4.10 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of minus 2.10 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $10.07
Macquarie rates WOR as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie assesses Worley is one of the more exposed contractors to the implications of the dive in the oil price.
The company has diversified its business with the ECR acquisition and increased exposure to more stable operating expenditure.
Nevertheless, the energy division is 47% of revenue. Outperform maintained. Target is $19.16.
Target price is $19.16 Current Price is $10.07 Difference: $9.09
If WOR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 90% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.93, suggesting upside of 68.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 50.30 cents and EPS of 98.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 91.2, implying annual growth of 150.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 51.60 cents and EPS of 110.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 105.5, implying annual growth of 15.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $22.00
Macquarie rates WPL as Outperform (1) -
The substantial fall in spot oil has meant prices are close to break-even levels for Woodside Petroleum and Macquarie observes resolving the supply uncertainty is now the clear catalyst.
At current prices, the broker considers the growth options available to Australian producers may be deferred to protect balance sheets. Outperform rating and $33 target maintained.
Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $22.00 Difference: $11
If WPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $35.64, suggesting upside of 62.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 123.51 cents and EPS of 171.17 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 195.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 148.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 108.98 cents and EPS of 149.67 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 192.6, implying annual growth of -1.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 150.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
| CAR | CARSALES.COM | $15.26 | UBS | 15.65 | 17.50 | -10.57% |
| CBA | COMMBANK | $72.83 | Macquarie | 69.00 | 75.00 | -8.00% |
| HT1 | HT&E LTD | $1.40 | UBS | 1.40 | 1.55 | -9.68% |
| JHX | JAMES HARDIE | $26.34 | Ord Minnett | 32.00 | 33.00 | -3.03% |
| KAR | KAROON ENERGY | $0.44 | Macquarie | 1.90 | 2.00 | -5.00% |
| MGR | MIRVAC | $3.02 | UBS | 3.49 | 3.30 | 5.76% |
| NEC | NINE ENTERTAINMENT | $1.41 | UBS | 1.85 | 2.00 | -7.50% |
| ORA | ORORA | $2.74 | Morgan Stanley | 3.50 | 3.30 | 6.06% |
| REA | REA GROUP | $96.77 | UBS | 110.00 | 105.00 | 4.76% |
| SKI | SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE | $2.05 | Macquarie | 2.35 | 2.37 | -0.84% |
| SWM | SEVEN WEST MEDIA | $0.11 | UBS | 0.12 | 0.30 | -60.00% |
| SXL | SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA | $0.55 | UBS | 0.95 | 1.05 | -9.52% |
| TYR | TYRO PAYMENTS | $2.92 | Ord Minnett | 4.45 | 4.60 | -3.26% |
Summaries
| AIZ | AIR NEW ZEALAND | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $1.89 |
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $1.89 | ||
| AMC | AMCOR | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $13.53 |
| BHP | BHP | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $29.00 |
| CAR | CARSALES.COM | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $15.26 |
| CTX | CALTEX AUSTRALIA | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $27.15 |
| DHG | DOMAIN HOLDINGS | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $2.68 |
| GMG | GOODMAN GRP | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $13.89 |
| JHX | JAMES HARDIE | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $26.34 |
| Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $26.34 | ||
| MGR | MIRVAC | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $3.02 |
| ORA | ORORA | Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.74 |
| OSH | OIL SEARCH | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.35 |
| REA | REA GROUP | Upgrade to Buy from Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $96.77 |
| SGP | STOCKLAND | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $4.34 |
| SWM | SEVEN WEST MEDIA | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $0.11 |
| TYR | TYRO PAYMENTS | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.92 |
| WOR | WORLEY | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $10.07 |
| WPL | WOODSIDE PETROLEUM | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $22.00 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 11 |
| 2. Accumulate | 2 |
| 3. Hold | 6 |
Tuesday 10 March 2020
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