Australian Broker Call

Credit Suisse rates AHY as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Credit Suisse lowers its rating to Neutral from Outperform with a target price of $1.50.

Essity has been given access to Asaleo Care's financial accounts to try and work out a takeover transaction. The broker believes a takeover is likely and there is an opportunity for Essity to amalgamate its Australian medical business with Asaleo.

Even so, Credit Suisse concedes the risk of no-deal is a possibility in which case the share price may retrace its recent gains.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: $0.12
If AHY meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.33, suggesting downside of -2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AIA as Neutral (3) -

As balance-sheet risks have been removed the share price has recovered quickly, with more confidence around the restart of international travel.

A faster-than-expected recovery in domestic air travel is also a positive sign for international travel once NZ borders reopen, UBS assesses.

The broker retains a Neutral rating until there is a more attractive entry price or border openings are closer to being realised. Target is raised to NZ$7.30 from NZ$6.70.

Current Price is $6.34. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AIZ as Sell (5) -

UBS observes the stock is heavily dependent on the duration of border closures and the pace of the travel recovery. The broker shifts its base case assumption from a gradual opening of NZ borders in 2021 to a full opening in the second quarter of 2022.

This reflects analysis around the vaccine roll-out program plus a belief that a travel bubble with Australia is unlikely once vaccination of vulnerable groups has been completed by early May.

Hence, greater financial pressure is expected on Air New Zealand in FY21 and FY22. Sell rating maintained and the target is steady at NZ$0.65.

Current Price is $1.46. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ALU as Outperform (1) -

With revenue pre-released, Credit Suisse found no surprises in Altium's top line numbers. The company's earnings missed the broker's forecasts led by cost growth driving operating deleverage.

Altium has guided to revenue of US$190-$195m for the year with operating income of US$70-$76m. While a  considerable acceleration is required to achieve the guidance, the broker does not see enough positive news to provide comfort this can be achieved.

Outperform rating retained with a target of $35.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $29.19 Difference: $5.81
If ALU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.33, suggesting upside of 13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALU as Neutral (3) -

First half operating earnings margins were below Macquarie's estimates and future margins are expected to remain under pressure before a turnaround in FY23.

Hence, the broker suggests investor confidence will require further indication of the company's ability to transition to a cloud-based platform. Macquarie retains a Neutral rating and lowers the target to $30 from $31.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $29.19 Difference: $0.81
If ALU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.33, suggesting upside of 13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALU as Overweight (1) -

A first look at first half results by Morgan Stanley focused on restated FY21 guidance (ex TASKING - the sold business) and the numbers are slightly below expectation. The broker thinks consensus FY21 revenue and earnings estimates will now move a little lower.

More negatively, the analyst says while the 2025 target of $500m revenue is retained, it now assumes 10-20% contribution from yet-to-be-announced M&A.

Overweight rating and $37 target retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $29.19 Difference: $7.81
If ALU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.33, suggesting upside of 13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALU as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

The results in the first half were slightly below expectations. Revenue guidance is been revised to US$190-195m with operating earnings of US$70-76m.

UBS retains forecasts at the lower end of these ranges but believes the market reaction to the results suggests many envisage considerable risk in achieving the skew to the second half.

On the positive side, UBS believes pent-up demand is likely to return as business confidence improves and this should mean a return to normalise pricing levels after significant discounting was experienced.

The broker also believes a strong balance sheet could allow the company to capitalise on M&A opportunities. UBS takes a medium-term view and upgrades to Buy from Neutral. Target is reduced to $34 from $36.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $29.19 Difference: $4.81
If ALU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.33, suggesting upside of 13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AMS as Add (1) -

First half earnings (EBITDA) for Atomos were ahead of Morgans expectations, driven by improved gross margins and meaningful cost reductions.

The company also reported strong operating cash flow which saw the group end the first half with $23m of net cash, highlights the broker.

The analyst continues to see upside to near-term forecasts, driven by new product releases, continued strength in the existing product range and potential entry into new market verticals such as gaming.

Add rating and target rises to $1.38 from $1.36.

Target price is $1.38 Current Price is $1.06 Difference: $0.32
If AMS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ANN as Neutral (3) -

In line with its FY21 guidance, Ansell delivered 1H21 earnings (EBIT) of $147m, slightly up on Macquarie’s $146m forecast. Revenue from the Industrial business unit was slightly ahead of consensus expectations.

Covid-19 is expected to impact the macroeconomic outlook in the near term, observes Macquarie in its first glance at the 1H21 result.

PPE demand is expected to remain elevated for the next 12 months, with ongoing supply-demand imbalance resulting in higher outsourced supplier/raw material costs, which Macquarie expects Ansell to pass on to customers.

Management also highlighted potential supply disruptions due to Covid-19 cases at factories.

Underperform and price target of $36.35 remain unchanged.

Target price is $36.35 Current Price is $38.57 Difference: minus $2.22 (current price is over target).
If ANN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $40.96, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AZJ as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

An initial assessment of Aurizon Holdings' first half result prompts Citi to downgrade to Neutral from Buy with the target falling to $4.28 from $5.15.

Aurizon Holdings reported a first half operating income of $454m, a 9% beat to consensus. For the full year, the company has upgraded its operating income guidance to $870-$910m driven by a circa $40m retrospective recognition of Wiggins Island Rail Project (WIRP) fees.

Where bulk performed better than expected, coal faltered with coal revenue decreasing by -8%. While believing coal markets will re-adjust in the short term and earnings will be relatively resilient, Citi expects fossil fuel exposed stocks to trade at a discount to historic multiples.

Target price is $4.28 Current Price is $4.00 Difference: $0.28
If AZJ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AZJ as Outperform (1) -

Aurizon Holdings' first-half operating income of $454m was 10% above Credit Suisse's forecast led by a non-recurring $40m benefit. The result is considered solid by the broker in light of the -4% decline in coal volumes.

Credit Suisse notes the bulk segment posted a strong margin improvement and expects this segment to constitute a higher proportion of Aurizon's business in future.

The broker reports management at the company expects robust medium-to-long term coal demand due to steel production growth in India and Southeast Asia.

Outperform retained with the target rising to $5.55 from $5.40.

Target price is $5.55 Current Price is $4.00 Difference: $1.55
If AZJ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AZJ as Outperform (1) -

Coal earnings (EBIT) were down -17% in the first half. Macquarie was disappointed with the outcome, as actual volumes were well below contracted levels. Additional iron ore contracts helped offset the drag.

The broker considers acquisitions such as Conports positive, setting up potential for growth in the rail haulage segment. The buyback was not expanded, which may disappoint some, but the potential to bid for OneRail means Macquarie was not surprised by the decision.

Outperform retained. Target rises to $4.40 from $4.31.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.00 Difference: $0.4
If AZJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AZJ as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley assesses Aurizon Holdings' growth in Bulk and resilient free cash flow yield provides some offset to coal market headwinds. A sustained recovery in coal market conditions is considered necessary to see a re-rate back toward historical multiples.

First half earnings (EBIT) of $454m were around 6% ahead of the broker's estimates.

The company lifted FY21 earnings guidance by around 4% at the midpoint, owing to a non-recurring $40m Wiggins Island Rail Project (WIRP) revenue catch-up for FY16-20. Additionally, there were considered strong gains in the Bulk division from short term grain volumes.

Equal-weight rating. Target is reduced to $4.53 from $5.18. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $4.53 Current Price is $4.00 Difference: $0.53
If AZJ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AZJ as Add (1) -

While Aurizon Holdings's earnings (EBIT) declined -11% on pcp, they were 3% better than Morgans had expected. The key driver was the growth in Bulk and decline in overheads, while lower volumes affected Coal and Network.

In terms of the broker's valuation, it's considered the disconnect with the share price can be partly explained by the anticoal thematic as well as negative sentiment arising from the China coal import restrictions.

The company says it has around $900m of excess capital that it can deploy. While the analyst assumes this continues to be used for share buybacks, investment opportunities seem to be increasing.

The Add rating is unchanged and the target price is decreased to $4.56 from $4.76.

Target price is $4.56 Current Price is $4.00 Difference: $0.56
If AZJ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AZJ as Buy (1) -

First half underlying earnings were broadly in line with UBS estimates. Coal volumes were -4% lower, which the broker points out exposes the fixed cost leverage in this division. Other divisions performed well.

UBS believes the underperformance in the share price is overdone, given a significant amount of the decline in FY21 forecasts will be recovered in two years under revenue cap provisions.

The broker retains a Buy rating. Target is reduced to $5.25 from $5.55.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $4.00 Difference: $1.25
If AZJ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BEN as Neutral (3) -

An "extraordinary" result from Bendigo & Adelaide Bank, the broker suggests, and duly rewarded. Earnings beat forecasts by 26%, mortgage growth was very strong and bad debts and funding costs fell sharply.

The dividend split was unusual, but greater confusion surrounds why the bank has sought to underwrite its DRP, effectively raising $150m in new capital when the bank's tier one level is alreadly comfortably above APRA requirements.

Despite slowing loan growth and improving profitability, the broker can only foresee half-year dividends of 23.5¢ out to FY23, which is the bottom of the Board’s 60-80% range. Target rises to $10.50 from $10.00, Neutral retained (High Risk).

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $10.56 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.42, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BEN as Neutral (3) -

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank's first half cash earnings at $219.7m were down -2% versus last year. The dividend includes the second half deferred dividend as well and comes to a total of $0.28.

Credit Suisse considers this a strong result driven by higher net interest margin (NIM), in-line expenses and lower bad debts. Ongoing concerns of the broker centre around the bank's ability to generate capital organically.

Credit Suisse maintains a Neutral rating with the target rising to $9.80 from $7.

Target price is $9.80 Current Price is $10.56 Difference: minus $0.76 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.42, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BEN as Neutral (3) -

The bank beat expectations in the first half. Still, margin pressures and low interest rates are likely to impact revenue growth in FY22, Macquarie asserts.

The pre-provision profit in the first half of $330m was 6% above forecasts amid higher revenue and lower expenses.

The strong performance and the recent rally in the share price suggests to Macquarie there is limited upside from current levels and a Neutral rating is retained. Target is raised to $10.25 from $9.00.

Target price is $10.25 Current Price is $10.56 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.42, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BEN as Underweight (5) -

In the opinion of Morgan Stanley, the first half result for Bendigo and Adelaide Bank featured good growth and operating leverage,
demonstrating the strategy is on track after the challenges of the second half 2020.

The growth and operating leverage resulted from loans and revenue rising (half-on-half) by circa 4.5% and 5% respectively, while costs were down around -3%.

With dividends resuming, the bank will use full DRP underwriting to raise around 38 basis points of capital and keep the proforma CET1 ratio within its target range of 9-9.5%, explains the broker. The dividend was 28 cents, comprising a final dividend of 4.5 cents and a first half interim dividend of 23.5 cents.

Morgan Stanley upgrades EPS forecasts for FY21-23 by 16%,12% and 9%, respectively, due to stronger loan growth, better margins and lower cost growth. Ongoing margin management, cost reduction and capital generation are considered key issues going forward.

Underweight retained. Target is raised to $9.90 from $8.60. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $9.90 Current Price is $10.56 Difference: minus $0.66 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.42, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BEN as Hold (3) -

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank reported a first-half FY21 cash net profit up 155% half-on-half (HoH) and 20% above Ord Minnett’s forecast. Revenue was 1% ahead of the broker's estimate, while expenses were -1% below.

A fully franked interim dividend of 23.5 cents was declared, with a fully underwritten dividend reinvestment plan (DRP). The bank will also pay a deferred final dividend of 4.5 cents.

The broker highlights the second-half outlook for net interest margin (NIM) is better than the company guided to at the previous result, which has driven meaningful upgrades to Ord Minnett's forecasts.

The analyst increases EPS forecasts for FY21-23 by 24%, 15% and 13% in FY23. Lower loan losses have driven the bulk of the FY21
upgrade, although in FY22 and FY23 higher revenue forecasts were the dominant factor.

Hold recommendation and target price increased to $10.40 from $9.

Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $10.56 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.42, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BEN as Neutral (3) -

First half results were slightly ahead of expectations. UBS was most impressed with interest margin management, which expanded slightly and despite headwinds. This was most evident in deposit management.

The most disappointing element was the bank again elected to use a dilutive dividend reinvestment plan to help pay the dividend.

With ambitions for above-system mortgage growth and an anticipated pick up in lending to small business and agriculture, the CET1 ratio is also expected to come under pressure. Neutral rating maintained. Target is raised to $10.00 from $8.50.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $10.56 Difference: minus $0.56 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.42, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

Marginally under Macquarie’s expectation (72%), iron-ore accounted for around 70% of BHP Group’s 1HFY21 earnings (EBITDA).

Copper was the only other material contributor to earnings at 25% with Petroleum and Coal accounting for less than 5% of earnings.

The minimum dividend of US$3.0bn (50% payout) was boosted by US$2.1bn for a total of US$1.01/share, 26% above the broker’s forecast and a payout ratio of 85%.

At first sniff at BHP's 1HFY21 result, Macquarie notes that buoyant iron-ore prices underpin strong upgrade momentum for BHP, with a spot price scenario generating around 30% and circa 90% higher earnings than its forecasts for FY21 and FY22, respectively.

Outperform rating and price target of $50 are unchanged.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $45.75 Difference: $4.25
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $46.54, suggesting downside of -0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Buy (1) -

BHP Group's first-half result is 4% above Ord Minnett's forecast and in line with consensus led by a stronger than expected copper result. The broker is pleasantly surprised at the high dividend payout ratio of 85%, a beat to the broker's expected 65%.

On initial assessment, the broker considers the result solid although notes some investors had hoped for a portion of returns to be directed towards an on market Plc buyback.

Buy rating retained with a target price of $53.

Target price is $53.00 Current Price is $45.75 Difference: $7.25
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $46.54, suggesting downside of -0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Buy (1) -

BHP Group’s underlying earnings (EBITDA) of US$14,680m at FY21 interim was up 21% year on year (yoy), and slightly below UBS’s expected US$15,361m.

At first peek, the broker notes that while underlying net profit of US$6,036m was a miss to UBS (US$6,640m) and consensus (US$6,331m), the higher dividend (85% dividend pay-out vs the 3-year historical average of 70%) is positive.

Dividend forecasts could be lifted if BHP continues to return 100% of free cash flow, suggests the broker. Underlying EPS of US119.4cps was up 16% yoy.

The Buy rating and target price of $48 (set in line with NPV) remain unchanged.

Target price is $48.00 Current Price is $45.75 Difference: $2.25
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $46.54, suggesting downside of -0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BPT as Neutral (3) -

Beach Energy's profit beat consensus but only due to tax and interest expense. Earnings were more in line but -4% below the broker.

While the broker suggests spending on high return projects underpinned by a robust balance sheet is commendable, it fears that the capital intensity of the business is creeping upwards, and therefore the outlook over the 5 year period has a reasonable chance of being trimmed.

The broker thinks the market is correctly valuing uncertainty of the company achieving its free cash flow outlook and retains Neutral. Target falls to $1.73 from $1.98.

Target price is $1.73 Current Price is $1.68 Difference: $0.05
If BPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.97, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BPT as Outperform (1) -

Management is not confident about the outlook on Western Flank in the longer term, a fact that makes Credit Suisse nervous about being positive. The broker also fears this uncertainty may make investors jittery about staying invested in Beach Energy.

FY25 production remains on-track albeit with risk to upper end and nearer-term guidance, notes the broker.

Outperform retained. Target falls to $1.96 from $2.07.

Target price is $1.96 Current Price is $1.68 Difference: $0.28
If BPT meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.97, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BPT as Outperform (1) -

First half results have disappointed Macquarie. Western Flank production has declined and there is elevated expenditure across the business.

Despite this, Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating and is attracted to further bolt-on M&A as well as the exposure to rising east coast gas prices. Target is reduced to $1.95 from $2.15.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $1.68 Difference: $0.27
If BPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.97, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BPT as Equal-weight (3) -

FY21 production guidance was lower for Beach Energy, as Morgan Stanley expected. Western Flank uncertainty is considered likely to impact the stock price shorter term though portfolio diversification will assist medium term, comments the analyst who also sees any material pullbacks as an opportunity.

Production has been trending lower primarily due to lower customer nominations from gas customers (given spot gas prices have been weak) along with lower crude oil production from the Western Flank in the Cooper Basin, explains the broker.

Overall, financial results were close to Morgan Stanley's estimates at the earnings (EBITDAX) level albeit lower at the profit (NPAT) level due to exploration expense.

Equal-weight retained for Beach Energy with a target of $1.90. Industry view Attractive.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.68 Difference: $0.22
If BPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.97, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BPT as Add (1) -

First half underlying earnings (EBITDA) were -2% below Morgans estimates, while profit (NPAT) was 11% ahead (due to tax-related timing assumptions).

Consequently the broker lowers the FY21 profit forecast by -5% due to lower expected production and drilling in the Western Flank. 

The analyst still sees value in the sector as commodity prices continue to recover and thinks the company will meet some key milestones in the next 12 months to de-risking the growth potential.

Add rating and the price target increases to $2.16 from $2.14..

Target price is $2.16 Current Price is $1.68 Difference: $0.48
If BPT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.97, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BPT as Buy (1) -

Beach Energy reported first-half FY21 underlying net profit -11% below Ord Minnett’s forecast.

Underlying operating earnings (EBITDA) of $407m came in -35% below the same period last year and -9% behind the broker's estimate due solely to a -$39m write-down of exploration assets.

The analyst is concerned over the indication of well interference issues, which are causing faster-than-expected decline rates at the Western Flank. These issues are yet to be fully understood and the company’s five-year target relies on stable production from the asset.

Buy recommendation on Beach Energy remains and the target price falls to $2.10 from $2.25.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.68 Difference: $0.42
If BPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.97, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BRG as Hold (3) -

Breville Group delivered first-half sales of $711m, up 28.8% over last year and reaching $1.1bn of sales in 2020. Gross margins increased to 35% from 33.9% driven by the product mix and a lower AUD, partially offset by higher freight costs.

The company has upgraded its operating income guidance for FY21 to circa $136m from $128-132m. Given the company reported operating income of $94.6m in the first half, this implies the second half operating income has to grow only 3.1%, points out the broker.

Management highlighted that while they continue to see positive momentum, inventory positions remain tight and sales in the second half remain somewhat uncertain, reports the broker.

Hold rating with a target of $24.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $30.51 Difference: minus $6.51 (current price is over target).
If BRG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.04, suggesting downside of -10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CCL as No Rating (-1) -

CCEP has increased its takeover bid for Coca-Cola Amatil to $13.50 a share cash and declared this the final.

The revised offer implies an equity value of $9.8bn and represents a 35% premium to consensus target prior to the announcement of the first offer in November.

The offer was revised following an "improved economic outlook" for Australasia. Macquarie cannot provide a rating or target at present.

Current Price is $13.41. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $12.52, suggesting downside of -6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CCL as Equal-weight (3) -

CCEP has increased its offer price to independent shareholders by around 6% to $13.50 from $12.75, with the consideration to be reduced by the cash amount of Coca-Cola Amatil's FY20 final dividend (consistent with the first offer).

CCEP has declared this is its best and final offer.

Coca-Cola Amatil's related party committee and Group MD unanimously consider the revised scheme in the best interest of independent shareholders.

The indicative timetable for the CCEP proposed scheme of arrangement has put the implementation date as late April/early May 2021.

Morgan Stanley maintains its rating as Equal-weight with a target price of $12.75. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $12.75 Current Price is $13.41 Difference: minus $0.66 (current price is over target).
If CCL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.52, suggesting downside of -6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CCL as Hold (3) -

Coca-Cola Amatil has announced an increase in the indicative takeover proposal from Coca-Cola European Partners (CCEP) to $13.50 a share from $12.75 for independent shareholders. The board has unanimously recommended the increased offer.

Ord Minnett believes the increased offer price is more reasonable for a change of control in an improved business and is now more likely to be accepted, while lower net debt helps fund the 5.9% higher equity value offered by CCEP.

Hold rating and the target rises to $13.50 from $12.75.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $13.41 Difference: $0.09
If CCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.52, suggesting downside of -6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CCP as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett comments upon news reports last week suggesting Credit Corp Group could face regulatory review by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) because its “market share” post acquisition of Collection House's ((CLH)) purchased debt ledger book was about 70%.

The broker considers it unlikely a regulatory review would have a material impact on the company.

In looking at market share in the purchased debt ledger (PDL) market, the analyst maintains there should be a clear distinction between definitions of ‘market’, as back books and existing arrangements versus forward flows are two distinct markets.

In addition, the vendors of PDLs are not required to sell these assets and one of the company's major risks has always been that the vendors may choose not to sell the assets at all, explains the analyst.

Hold recommendation with a $31.50 target price maintained.

Target price is $31.50 Current Price is $32.14 Difference: minus $0.64 (current price is over target).
If CCP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $33.45, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates COE as Neutral (3) -

Cooper Energy missed Credit Suisse's first-half forecasts led mostly by higher costs associated with the APA Group ((APA)) transition agreement. The broker is not really surprised, having expected a messy result given the uncertainty related to Orbost and the APA transitional arrangement.

Until Orbost is resolved, Credit Suisse suspects gaining traction on future growth may prove challenging. The broker continues to prefer remaining on the sidelines until there is more clarity while the thesis remains ‘Waiting for Orbost’.

Neutral rating. Target is $0.34.

Target price is $0.34 Current Price is $0.31 Difference: $0.03
If COE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.38, suggesting upside of 19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COE as Neutral (3) -

First half earnings were below expectations because of the impact of the Orbost plant problems, with production stabilising at a lower rate. Macquarie anticipates more expenditure may be required.

While the company has indicated it is within the covenants set by the reserve-base lending facility, the broker suspects Cooper Energy may need to refinance.

The broker retains a Neutral rating and finds better risk/reward elsewhere, given the operating challenges and risks to the balance sheet. Target is reduced to $0.35 from $0.37.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.31 Difference: $0.04
If COE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.38, suggesting upside of 19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates COE as Add (1) -

Morgans is gaining confidence in the progress Cooper Energy and APA Group ((APA)) are making at Sole, just as some investors lose patience.

Such confidence stems from signs of steadier output from Orbost, recovering gas market conditions and ongoing banker/customer support. The first half result commentary encouraged the analyst, as the plant operator (APA Group) ramped up production at Orbost.

Underlying earnings (EBITDAX) in the first half fell short of Morgans estimate due mainly to higher-than-expected opex.

The Add rating is maintained and the target price decreased to $0.39 from $0.415. 

Target price is $0.39 Current Price is $0.31 Difference: $0.08
If COE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.38, suggesting upside of 19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COE as Buy (1) -

Cooper Energy reported a first-half FY20 net loss of -$17m, with revenue broadly in-line with Ord Minnett’s expectation, although operating costs were significantly above forecast.

While the result was affected by higher operating costs associated with ongoing remediation works at the Orbost Gas Plant, management believes the period represents the start of a step change in output and prices, explains the broker.

Full-year guidance of 2.7–2.9m barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe) implies to the analyst a 25–42% increase in production in the current half, while the commencement of gas supply agreements (GSA) for Sole gas should also see higher prices.

The Buy rating is maintained and the target falls to $0.45 from $0.47.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.31 Difference: $0.14
If COE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.38, suggesting upside of 19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CQR as Sell (5) -

Charter Hall Retail's earnings were slightly below the broker, due to lower rental income beyond that which was covid-impacted. Guidance is reinstated, with forecast full year earnings ahead of expectations, and further growth expected in FY22.

The broker has revised its estimates to reflect lower rental income and revised debt costs. Guidance suggests a yield of 6.6%, which would be attractive if the broker could be more comfortable with the level of growth.

Sell retained, target falls to $2.87 from $2.97.

Target price is $2.87 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: minus $0.7 (current price is over target).
If CQR meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CQR as Outperform (1) -

Charter Hall Retail REIT's first-half result was a beat with operating earnings ahead of Credit Suisse's estimated 12.64c. The REIT has guided to FY21 earnings and distribution of at least 27.3c and 23.4c.

The broker evaluates the result was mostly led by resilient fundamentals including rent collection of 94% and high occupancy while specialities lagged slightly.

Outperform rating with the target falling to $3.99 from $4.03.

Target price is $3.99 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: $0.42
If CQR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CQR as Outperform (1) -

Operating earnings guidance for the FY21 year is ahead of Macquarie's expectations and earnings per security in the first half of 13.17c was ahead of forecasts.

The company expects operating earnings of no less than 27.3c per security in FY21. The broker believes the next 18 months will be key to underlying income growth and likely to be a test of post-pandemic tenant appetite. Target Country ((WES)) is a key component of upcoming expiries.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and considers the valuation attractive, with a 7.0% distribution yield. Target is raised to $4.04 from $3.94.

Target price is $4.04 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: $0.47
If CQR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CQR as Equal-weight (3) -

Charter Hall Retail REIT reported first half FY21 operating profit of $75.2m, in-line with Morgan Stanley's $75.7m estimate.

The REIT provided first-time FY21 profit guidance of 'no less than 27.3 cents ', slightly better than forecast by the broker. It also guided to second half DPS of 12.7 cents, ahead of the analyst's 11 cent estimate and consensus of 11.8 cents.

Morgan Stanley highlights Shopping mall occupancy rose to 97.8% from 97.3% and there were positive leasing spreads for all new leases and renewals. The REIT commented malls in regional locations are doing well with help from the breaking of the drought.

Equal-weight and target of $3.72 are unchanged. Industry view: In-line

Target price is $3.72 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: $0.15
If CQR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CQR as Accumulate (2) -

Charter Hall Retail REIT reported first half FY21 funds from operations (FFO) of $75.2m, in-line with Ord Minnett’s $74.8m forecast. An interim distribution of 10.7 cents was declared.

Guidance was a positive surprise for the broker, with FY21 operating EPS expected to be no less than 27.3 cents, ahead of the analyst's 26.9 cent forecast and consensus of 26.6 cents.

Ord Minnett believes second-half earnings and distribution will be more reflective of stabilised earnings, annualising at 28.3 cents and 25.4 cents, respectively.

Accumulate rating and $4 target are unchanged.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: $0.43
If CQR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CQR as Neutral (3) -

First half results were slightly below UBS estimates. FY21 earnings guidance is for "no less than 27.3c", slightly ahead of the broker's forecast. Distribution guidance of at least 23.4c per security was also strong.

Charter Hall Retail has evolved beyond supermarkets to encompass convenience retail that includes long WALE investments such as service stations and distribution centres.

The broker suggests, nonetheless, other stocks may offer investors a better bond proxy and considers the more yield-focused names will underperform in 2021. Neutral rating and $3.60 target retained.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: $0.03
If CQR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DHG as Outperform (1) -

Excluding revenue deferral, acquisitions and JobKeeper, Domain Holdings Australia’s 1H21 earnings (EBITDA) of $54.5m was up around 19% year-on-year (y-y), and 5% above Macquarie’s estimate.

With trading in January 2021 reflecting an encouraging start to the year, management indicated it is witnessing atypical seasonal patterns and highlighted it expects upcoming strength in Melbourne listings. 

At first glance, the broker remains optimistic on the outlook for listings in 2H21, given the group should be cycling a soft pcp (2H20 was covid-impacted) and forecast growth of 15% y-y.

For the group, costs fell -9.9% in 1H21 on a like-for-like basis, which Macquarie notes is a positive outcome.

Outperform rating and price target of $5.25 remain unchanged.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $5.29 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If DHG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.55, suggesting downside of -11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GPT as Buy (1) -

GPT Group reported earnings 3% ahead of the broker's forecast and a dividend 11% ahead. No guidance was offered at this stage but it is expected at the April update.

With 38% of the group's portfolio located in Melbourne, covid hit retail hard, with the city locked down for most of the reporting period. Mall values continue to fall, the broker notes, as expected.

An announced buyback is a positive, as it suggests sufficient gearing capacity, and the stock is trading below the broker's valuation. Neutral retained, target falls to $4.51 from $4.63 on lower discounted cash flow.

Target price is $4.51 Current Price is $4.18 Difference: $0.33
If GPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.64, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates GPT as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Credit Suisse considers GPT Group's result to be better-than-expected with funds from operations well above the broker's forecast of 25.6c although less than last year.

No FY21 guidance was provided but the broker expects it to be a better earnings year.

The broker is of the view the group suffers from negative sentiment towards both the office and retail sectors with not enough attention given to its industrial exposure or management platform.

The broker upgrades to Outperform from Neutral with the target falling to $4.78 from $4.83.

Target price is $4.78 Current Price is $4.18 Difference: $0.6
If GPT meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.64, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GPT as Neutral (3) -

2020 results were ahead of Macquarie's estimates, supported by rent collection and logistics income. GPT Group has announced a 5% buyback, which the broker calculates will take gearing to 26% and adds 4% to earnings.

Macquarie assesses the stock is not trading at a material discount compared with peers but without a material difference in the growth profile it is unlikely to outperform. Neutral retained. Target is reduced to $4.61 from $4.66.

Target price is $4.61 Current Price is $4.18 Difference: $0.43
If GPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.64, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GPT as Underweight (5) -

GPT Group's funds from operations (FFO) beat Morgan Stanley's estimate by 9%, driven by Retail with stronger than expected rent
collections and a reversal of first half provisioning.

The broker remains cautious with forecasts and assumes there is some risk that income across all future expiries could face downward pressure as the concept of market rent is reset in Retail.

The group has activated a buyback for up to 5% of outstanding securities, funded by conservative gearing of 23.2%, explains the analyst.

Underweight rating and target of $4.37 are retained. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $4.37 Current Price is $4.18 Difference: $0.19
If GPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.64, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GPT as Accumulate (2) -

GPT Group reported 2020 funds from operations (FFO) of $554.7m, well ahead of Ord Minnett’s $502.5m forecast, due to lower covid-19 provisions. A final distribution of 13.2 cents was declared, up 42% on the first half, bringing the full-year payout to 22.5 cents.

The broker highlights 2020 rental abatements were up only -$8.7m on -$86.6m in the first half due to overly conservative provisioning. 2020 retail provisions were 30% of underlying net property income (NPI), better than the 50% expected by Ord Minnett.

The group has established a Logistics joint venture with Canadian investor QuadReal. The fund is targeting a total commitment of -$800m (GPT Group -$400m) and has committed 22% across two developments.

Accumulate rating has remained unchanged with the target rising to $5 from $4.90.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.18 Difference: $0.82
If GPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.64, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GPT as Neutral (3) -

2020 results were ahead of UBS estimates, mostly driven by one-offs including a reversal of covid-19 related provisions and lower corporate costs.

UBS revises earnings estimates up by 2% to reflect another re-setting of interest rates as well as logistics development/acquisitions. This is mostly offset by increased corporate overheads.

The company has announced a 5% buyback which should provide short-term support but UBS envisages better long-term value elsewhere. Neutral rating and $4.55 target are unchanged.

Target price is $4.55 Current Price is $4.18 Difference: $0.37
If GPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.64, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GWA as Neutral (3) -

An initial analysis of GWA Group's first-half result shows the net profit at $20m was below Citi’s forecast of $22m but 3% ahead of consensus. An interim dividend of 6c was declared.

The group's cost out targets were on track, observes Citi, with $2m in cost savings during the first half. Further, sales in the UK were up 5.7% and delivered market share gains in a challenging market environment.

No quantitative guidance has been provided and the outlook for commercial and multi-residential completions are expected to remain subdued. 

Neutral rating retained with a target of $2.60.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $3.71 Difference: minus $1.11 (current price is over target).
If GWA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.95, suggesting downside of -13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HLS as Equal-weight (3) -

In anticipation of results Morgan Stanley considers the focus will be on the execution of the Sustainable Improvement Program (SIP), the operating margin arbitrage against peers and deployment of capital from a de-leveraged balance sheet.

The key expectation for the first half, drawn by the broker from consensus, is for revenue to be up by 9% to $978m. The broker forecasts EBIT of $144m at 14.8% margin and EPS of $0.13.

Equal-weight rating and the target price rises to $4.05 from $4. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $4.06 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If HLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.17, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IGO as No Rating (-1) -

Macquarie observes IGO's first-half result was mixed with solid production offset by softer cash flow and weaker second half guidance for IGO's Tropicana operations.

The broker has incorporated the global lithium acquisition into its estimates with production from Greenbushes and the Kwinana Hydroxide plant ramp-up expected to generate $300mpa in earnings for IGO from FY25 onwards.

Macquarie is under research restriction for IGO and cannot provide a target or rating.

Current Price is $6.55. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $6.09, suggesting downside of -9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ING as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Inghams Group's first-half result preview suggests strong volumes with first-quarter core poultry volume lifting 6.2% versus last year. Also, the result should not be impacted much by lower pricing, if Macquarie's updated forecasts prove correct.

Macquarie expects strong poultry volumes to continue into 2Q with better than expected pricing. Further margin recovery will require covid normalisation, inventory work-through and lower input costs, adds the broker.

Macquarie upgrades to Outperform from Neutral with a target of $3.78.

Target price is $3.78 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: $0.29
If ING meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.67, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IPL as Neutral (3) -

Plant reliability continues to be an issue for Incitec Pivot, highlights Credit Suisse, noting the WALA turnaround and inspection is to extend to mid-March at an additional cost of -US$15m.

Louisiana Missouri (LoMo) ammonium nitrate manufacturing facility is expected to re-start at the end of March while Cheyenne suffered a short downtime as well. The company has guided the impact of the downtime to LoMo and Cheyenne to -US$11m.

Management guides to FY22 for sustained reliability improvements.

Neutral rating with a target of $2.73.

Target price is $2.73 Current Price is $2.57 Difference: $0.16
If IPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.95, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IPL as Outperform (1) -

The extension of the WALA operations shut down and the US new ammonia plant downtime will impact the FY21 operating income by -$35m, highlights Macquarie.

Even so, the broker still sees upside risk to consensus earnings with fertiliser prices remaining positive and driven by buoyant soft commodity prices. 

Also, Dyno Americas is performing resiliently which leads the broker to expect strong earnings recovery for Incitec in FY21-22.

The Outperform rating is unchanged with the target rising to $2.93 from $2.82.

Target price is $2.93 Current Price is $2.57 Difference: $0.36
If IPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.95, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IPL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley was disappointed with the re-emergence of reliability issues in the first half. Still, the business appears to be performing well and the company is positioned to leverage strength in commodity markets.

Morgan Stanley upgrades forecasts, as fertiliser strength offsets the outages related to the explosives plants. Earnings forecasts for the Americas explosives market and Waggaman plant are reduced by -9% for FY21 while Asia Pacific forecasts are lifted by 6%.

Overweight reiterated. The target is raised to $3.25 from $3.15. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.57 Difference: $0.68
If IPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.95, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IPL as Add (1) -

Despite a number of North American plant outages, Morgans estimates the rest of the business will offset these impacts. The fertiliser business is considered to be benefiting from favourable seasonal conditions and rising prices.

The analyst increases profit (NPAT) estimates for FY21-23 by 34.6%, 25.5% and 24.6%, respectively.

With rising earnings momentum from strengthening fertiliser prices, the company is now firmly in the upgrade cycle, explains Morgans.

Add rating and price target increased to $3.25 from $2.50.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.57 Difference: $0.68
If IPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.95, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IPL as Buy (1) -

Incitec Pivot has indicated first half earnings will be negatively affected by -$35m from unplanned manufacturing outages at Waggaman and the Louisiana and Cheyenne AN plants.

UBS observes FY21 is a busy "turnaround" year for the company as Moranbah is also scheduled for maintenance in the second half.

The company expects explosives earnings from Dyno Nobel America will be in line with the prior corresponding half.

UBS retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $2.85 from $2.40. The broker assesses the stock is highly leveraged to the recent strong recovery in global fertiliser pricing and this more than offsets the manufacturing issues.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.57 Difference: $0.28
If IPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.95, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JBH as Neutral (3) -

The broker does not make clear where JB Hi-Fi's result came in compared with forecasts, rather focusing on the second half. Despite struggling with low inventory levels due to covid, the company demonstrated continung sales strength in January.

Management expects to eke out positive sales for both JB and the Good Guys in the second half, given underlying demand remains strong despite cycling the home electronic explosion of the same period last year.

The company has de-geared through covid thanks to strong cash generation, low capex and only a 65% payout ratio. Its level of cash now suggests to the broker the potential for capital management and/or acquisitions. Neutral and $53 target retained.

Target price is $53.00 Current Price is $52.44 Difference: $0.56
If JBH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $53.38, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates JBH as Neutral (3) -

No surprises at JB Hi-Fi's result given the result was pre-released. Credit Suisse expects work from home, limited opportunity for international travel and housing activity will continue to lead to above-trend sales revenue during 2021.

Earnings changes are largely due to an upgrade to the gross margin assumption for The Good Guys, highlights the broker. Also, cash generation was exceptional and the strong net cash balance has the broker expecting an off-market buyback.

Credit Suisse retains its Neutral rating with the target rising to $57.03 from $54.72.

Target price is $57.03 Current Price is $52.44 Difference: $4.59
If JBH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $53.38, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JBH as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes JB Hi-Fi delivered positive comps in the first half with JB Australia growing by 24.2% and with The Good Guys up 26.4%.

Sales momentum remained strong, observes the broker, with elevated demand for consumer electronics and home appliances while gross margin fell -9bps to 22%. 

Momentum in consumer durable spending is expected to continue in 2021 as international travel remains restricted and strong housing turnover will likely support spending on home improvement.

Neutral rating with the target price rising to $55.10 from $53.10.

Target price is $55.10 Current Price is $52.44 Difference: $2.66
If JBH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $53.38, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JBH as Equal-weight (3) -

First half results were pre-released and the main news suggests trading was elevated in January, although it has slowed. Australian gross margin was down -9 basis points as a result of the shift in mix.

The main uncertainty in Morgan Stanley's view is the period beyond March as elevated comparables are cycled. Flat comparables are assumed. Equal-weight rating, $52 target and Attractive industry view retained.

Target price is $52.00 Current Price is $52.44 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $53.38, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JBH as Hold (3) -

After JB Hi-Fi reported first half results in-line with recent guidance, Morgans would prefer to see where sales rates settle throughout the second half. The broker maintains a Hold rating and decreases the target to $50 from $52.19.

As flagged at the January trading update, gross margins were marginally lower in both businesses (JB Aust/ JB NZ), while The Good Guys (TGG) saw strong margin expansion, relays the broker.

The analyst notes the result represents a continuation of strong sales trends across the business, albeit with some softening versus recent trends (largely in TGG) which was impacted by stock shortages.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $52.44 Difference: minus $2.44 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $53.38, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JBH as Hold (3) -

JB H-Fi reported a first-half FY21 net profit of $317.7m, in-line with January guidance and Ord Minnett’s forecast.

Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) grew at 76%, with the core JB Australia division up 58%, while JB New Zealand was up 357% and The Good Guys (TGG) up 142% off a lower base.

The broker highlights trading from January though moderating was still strong with like-for-like (LFL) sales growth of 18.6% (JB Australia), 14.1% (TGG) and 21.7% (JB New Zealand).

Morgan Stanley notes TGG is performing better and the broker is more confident on market share gains and also confident consumer discretionary retailers can continue to do well, as alternative spending is less available.

The Hold rating is unchanged and the target price increases to $55 from $50.

Target price is $55.00 Current Price is $52.44 Difference: $2.56
If JBH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $53.38, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JBH as Neutral (3) -

First half net profit was up 86% and ahead of expectations while UBS found few surprises in the results. As online is driving around 44% of sales growth the company is comfortable that additional investment in this channel can be absorbed.

While the consumer backdrop is favourable, UBS considers this factored into the share price and there is little consideration for the pulling forward of demand or the transfer to online which has lower incremental margins.

Neutral maintained. Target is raised to $51.50 from $51.00.

Target price is $51.50 Current Price is $52.44 Difference: minus $0.94 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $53.38, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KMD as Neutral (3) -

Action Watch industry data from September to November show overall sales growth for US retailers and attractive operating metrics.

Macquarie notes the data are consistent with Rip Curl's performance and supports the broker's positive outlook commentary. Rip Curl's same-store growth was up 21% in the first half with wholesale sales down -15%. 

Going into the second half, the broker assumes surf wholesale sales will grow 19% and expects FY21 wholesale sales to be circa -4% below FY19 levels.

Neutral rating with a target of $1.25.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: $0.04
If KMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.35, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NEA as Buy (1) -

Nearmap's result highlighted improving momentum in North America, the broker notes, with most key metrics trending positively. Planned additional investment will nonetheless impact negatively on margins and cash flow over the next 12 months.

Yet investment should accelerate penetration of the North American market and support a transition from a mere content provider to more of an insights/analytics provider, the broker suggests.

Execution risk is high and weak macro conditions may impact the near term but Citi suggests the recent capital raising provides ample capacity to fund growth. Buy retained, target rises to $3.10 from $3.00.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.57 Difference: $0.53
If NEA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.93, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NEA as Neutral (3) -

Nearmap's first-half result shows annualised contract value was up 16.1% with revenue growing by 18% versus last year. There were "no real negative surprises" and better operating cost reflected cost reductions implemented post-covid. 

Revenue was slightly ahead of Macquarie's forecast mostly led by fx rate assumptions and AUD appreciation is expected to remain a headwind going into the second half.

Nearmap's churn rate also stabilised at lower levels, highlights the broker, a 42% improvement versus last year.

Macquarie maintains its Neutral rating with the target price rising to $2.60 from $2.40.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.57 Difference: $0.03
If NEA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.93, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NEA as Overweight (1) -

The performance in North America proved very strong, Morgan Stanley observes, versus some bearish views on the company's ability to compete effectively.

Australasian sales were softer than expected in the first half but the broker asserts the main focus is on the US. FY21 Annual contract value (ACV) guidance has been upgraded to the top of the $120-128m range.

The main positive surprise was free cash flow and the $129m in the bank which Morgan Stanley suggests puts the company in a strong position to pursue proactive reinvestment in the second half.

Overweight reiterated. Target is $3.10. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.57 Difference: $0.53
If NEA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.93, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NST as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie resumes coverage of Northern Star Resources post completion of its merger with Saracen Mineral Holdings. The broker highlights the merger has created an ASX-listed gold miner with global scale.

Operational synergies, potential expansions and exploration are expected to continue to drive production growth to 2moz in 3-5 years. Going ahead, some key catalysts include production growth, cost reduction and further M&A activity, adds the broker.

Outperform rating is reinstated with a target price of $14.10.

Target price is $14.10 Current Price is $11.88 Difference: $2.22
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.05, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NST as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley updates its modelling following the merger with Saracen. The latter has now delisted and Northern Star is controlling all assets of the combined entity.

Operating synergies are likely to be revealed over the next 12-24 months and the broker suspects the level and timing of synergies may disappoint some very high expectations.

As a result of the merger, Morgan Stanley raises the target to $12.95 from $11.55 and retains an Underweight rating. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $12.95 Current Price is $11.88 Difference: $1.07
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.05, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGF as Outperform (1) -

Contributing strongly to SG Fleet Group's 1H21 profit of $25.4m, up on AGM guidance of $22-24m, was strong residual value supporting end-of-lease income (EOL), up 143% and an elevated order pipeline, with benefits expected to flow into future periods.

While supply issues are expected to remain, SG Fleet is confident it will grow the order book strongly.

At first glance at the 1H21 result, Macquarie notes that taking into account the strong 1H21, SG Fleet considers the typical 1H/2H profit split (circa46/54 - circa47/53) unlikely. 

Macquarie maintains its Outperform rating and target price of $1.92.

Target price is $1.92 Current Price is $2.49 Difference: minus $0.57 (current price is over target).
If SGF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SIQ as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie downgrades to Neutral from Outperform with a target of $7.29.

Among the fleet and novated companies, Macquarie finds Smartgroup Corp has the least used car price exposure and this helps driving its fleet income.

The broker expects new car supply to remain a constraint throughout 2021, especially since the retail channel is preferred over novated and fleet. Also, going forward regulatory uncertainty may impact the timing of both capital management and corporate activity.

Target price is $7.29 Current Price is $7.59 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If SIQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.10, suggesting downside of -7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates STO as Buy (1) -

Ahead of the FY20 results, Santos has published the 2020 reserve statement which includes a 34 mmboe increase in 2P reserves, largely from the Cooper basin and GLNG.

This offsets a write-down of -27mmboe for the Reindeer field in Western Australia, to be recognised in the February 18 results.

Overall, UBS observes, the new statement allows for longer production from the two key assets which lifts valuation and the target is raised to $7.70 from $7.60. Buy maintained.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $6.90 Difference: $0.8
If STO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.48, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SWM as Outperform (1) -

Seven West Media's first-half results were ahead of the broker's forecasts at the operating income and net profit levels. The beat was primarily on lower costs since revenue was lower than the broker expected.

The company has guided for FY21 operating expenses to be at the lower end of the $1.03-1.05bn range.

TV's recovery has continued into the third quarter and early bookings indicate higher TV revenues for the year, notes the broker.

Credit Suisse increases its forecast for the second-half metro TV market growth to 20% from 12%. Outperform rating. Target rises to $0.70 from $0.50.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: $0.2
If SWM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.54, suggesting downside of -6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SWM as No Rating (-1) -

At first glance, first half earnings beat Morgan Stanley's expectations. A reduction in debt helped. The company considers the advertising market remains positive for both free-to-air TV and broadcaster video-on-demand, or BVOD.

The main issue, the broker finds, is how much of the earnings uplift is cyclical and stemming from cost reductions. Moreover, can M&A realistically create shareholder value?

Morgan Stanley is unable to provide a rating and target at present. Industry view: Attractive.

Current Price is $0.50. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $0.54, suggesting downside of -6.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SWM as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Ord Minnett reduces the rating for Seven West Media to Accumulate from Buy after the recent share price rise. The broker increases the target to $0.55 from $0.28 after factoring-in FY21 estimates for revenue growth of 6.1% and cost reduction of -8.1%.

Post the first half results, the analyst highlights underlying net profit after tax (excluding significant items) was $86.6m, up 25%
on the same period last year.

The company announced it was in discussions with Google for its news content. This is after agreeing to a long-term partnership with Google for the search engine giant’s News Showcase Product, from which the broker estimates revenue of $39.5m to $69.2m yearly. 

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: $0.05
If SWM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.54, suggesting downside of -6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SWM as Buy (1) -

UBS upgrades FY21 operating earnings (EBITDA) estimates to around $240m. First half results were ahead of estimates, primarily because of the timing of costs. The broker finds the forward booking data for the TV advertising market encouraging.

The company has indicated TV revenues may have fallen by around -18% in the third quarter and -40% in the fourth quarter of FY20. Against such weak comparables TV revenue is forecast to be up 7-10% in the third quarter of FY21.

UBS retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $0.60 from $0.40.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: $0.1
If SWM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.54, suggesting downside of -6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VTG as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett takes over research on Vita Group after an internal transfer from Baillieu.

Telstra Corp ((TLS)) announced its intention to transition to full ownership of its retail store network, which currently has 104 stores operated by Vita Group, 166 by independent licensees and 67 by Telstra.

Vita Group's ’s Master Licence Agreement with Telstra runs until 30 June 2025, but Ord Minnett understand it has provisions for early termination, which include the negotiation of a compensation payment to the company.

The broker estimates a total value of $1.30-1.70 per share while acknowledging significant uncertainty around the stock.

The analyst applies a discount to valuation due to significant uncertainty surrounding the timing and quantum of any payment from
Telstra, the use of those funds by the company and what Vita Group looks like going forward.

Ord Minnett updates the target to $1.11 from $1.49 and changes the rating to Speculative Buy (from Buy).

Target price is $1.11 Current Price is $0.89 Difference: $0.22
If VTG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources