Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates ALD as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has downgraded its crude oil price forecasts to US$60/bbl from US$70/bbl in 2025, and to US$70/bbl from US$80/bbl in 2026.

The broker assumes an AUD/USD rate of 63c for 2025 and 65c for 2026. Further out, the oil price is expected to revert to the US$70–US$80/bbl range, as a higher price will be needed to boost investment in new supply.

Ord Minnett’s analysis also suggests the average time for oil prices to bottom from a peak in the cycle is around five months, and therefore recommends investors “buy the dips” on selective stocks.

Karoon Energy ((KAR)) is Buy rated, along with Santos ((STO)) and Woodside Energy ((WDS)), which has been upgraded from Hold.

The broker also favours refiners Ampol and Viva Energy ((VEA)), both Buy rated.

Target price for Ampol  is set at $34 with EPS estimates cut by -0.6% and -0.7% for 2025 and 2026 respectively.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $24.95 Difference: $9.05
If ALD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.65, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates APA as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Ord Minnett has downgraded its crude oil price forecasts to US$60/bbl from US$70/bbl in 2025, and to US$70/bbl from US$80/bbl in 2026.

The broker assumes an AUD/USD rate of 63c for 2025 and 65c for 2026. Further out, the oil price is expected to revert to the US$70–US$80/bbl range, as a higher price will be needed to boost investment in new supply.

Ord Minnett’s analysis also suggests the average time for oil prices to bottom from a peak in the cycle is around five months, and therefore recommends investors “buy the dips” on selective stocks.

Karoon Energy ((KAR)) is Buy rated, along with Santos ((STO)) and Woodside Energy ((WDS)), which has been upgraded from Hold.

The broker also favours refiners Ampol ((ALD)) and Viva Energy ((VEA)), both Buy rated.

Target price for APA Group remains at $8.60 with no change in EPS estimates. The stock is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $8.36 Difference: $0.24
If APA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.81, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASX as Sell (5) -

UBS highlights ASX was a beneficiary of elevated market volatility in April, with average trading activity recording more than 30% y/y increase across both cash equities and derivatives.

The stronger near-term outlook is positive, but the broker is more concerned about the medium-term impact on revenue growth from a drawn-out recovery in the capital raising profile.

There's also continuing cost pressures as D&A catches up to capex, and, as a result, the broker remains of the view compounded annual EPS growth won't exceed 3% over FY25-29.

EPS forecast for FY25-26 lifted by 3.2% and 1.7% on April trading activity boom. Sell. Target rises to $66.45 from $62.50.

Target price is $66.45 Current Price is $70.11 Difference: minus $3.66 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $64.00, suggesting downside of -8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AUB as Buy (1) -

AUB Group updated FY25 underlying net profit after tax guidance toward the upper end of the outlook range at $190m–$200m, representing a narrowing of the range and in line with consensus expectations, according to Ord Minnett.

The FY25 result will also incorporate a one-off after-tax cost of -$12.8m, which implies strong momentum into FY26.

The stock has outperformed the market since the 1H25 results, the analyst explains, and at current valuations continues to trade at a discount to peer Steadfast Group ((SDF)).

The Buy rating is maintained, with the target price unchanged at $35.58.

Target price is $35.58 Current Price is $32.03 Difference: $3.55
If AUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.76, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AX1 as Overweight (1) -

In an arrangement with Accent Group, Sports Direct, a leading global sports retailer, will enter the Australian market.

Morgan Stanley believes this development could potentially be at the expense of the market incumbent, Rebel, which is owned by Super Retail.

The broker believes Sports Direct in Australia and New Zealand will be successful given the business model is proven in multiple markets.

The analysts also expect start-up losses until Sports Direct attains scale.

Morgan Stanley has an Overweight rating for Accent Group, and the target falls to $2.50 from $2.70 on near-term earnings dilution. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.85 Difference: $0.65
If AX1 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.42, suggesting upside of 27.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

Aurizon Holdings' trading update was soft, with declines in both coal and bulk volumes so far in FY25 (10 months to April), leaving Citi wondering why the company didn't downgrade guidance.

The broker points to several weak reads, but didn't revise its forecasts. Network volumes point to under-recovery, and the broker highlights the key question will be whether the -$80m is recovered this year via take or pay, or through revenue cap in FY27.

Coal volumes were down mainly at CQCN, partly offset by positive trends in NSW and SEQ. The broker sees risk of write-downs growing in the bulk division, with the company flagging an additional $15m in provisioning from Northern Iron Ore debt.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $3.40.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: $0.4
If AZJ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.33, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes Aurizon Holdings' 3Q25 trading update implied a -6% volume decline in coal, -12% fall in Network and -20% drop in bulk. The Network decline was in line with the broker's estimate, while the rail outcome suggested some share gains in NSW.

FY25 EBITDA guidance range of $1.66-1.74bn was recapped, but it came with caveats, including Network shortfall and impairment risk from three customers.

The broker has factored in an additional cost of -$10m and downgraded coal EBITDA by -$20m, resulting in a revised EBITDA forecast of $1.616bn, -3% below the guidance range.

Neutral. Target cut to $3.20 from $3.40.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: $0.2
If AZJ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.33, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BPT as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has downgraded its crude oil price forecasts to US$60/bbl from US$70/bbl in 2025, and to US$70/bbl from US$80/bbl in 2026.

The broker assumes an AUD/USD rate of 63c for 2025 and 65c for 2026. Further out, the oil price is expected to revert to the US$70–US$80/bbl range, as a higher price will be needed to boost investment in new supply.

Ord Minnett’s analysis also suggests the average time for oil prices to bottom from a peak in the cycle is around five months, and therefore recommends investors “buy the dips” on selective stocks.

Karoon Energy ((KAR)) is Buy rated, along with Santos ((STO)) and Woodside Energy ((WDS)), which has been upgraded from Hold.

The broker also favours refiners Ampol ((ALD)) and Viva Energy ((VEA)), both Buy rated.

Target price fo Beach Energy is set at $1.40, down from $1.50, with EPS estimate cut by -7.3% for FY26. No change to Hold rating.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: $0.57
If BPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.39, suggesting upside of 15.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BSL as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi downgrades Bluescope Steel to Neutral from Buy, citing share price outperformance and a more balanced risk-reward outlook.

The broker highlights a recent solid operational performance and a valuation discount to US peers, yet macro headwinds are building. These include rising US steel import pressure, softening forward US pricing, and below-average Asia export spreads.

Spot US hot rolled coil (HRC) prices remain elevated, but forward prices have dropped circa -10% month-on-month, note the analysts. Increased ASEAN and Chinese steel imports are expected to weigh on margins in H2 of 2025.

BlueScope’s Asia-facing exports remain under pressure, highlights Citi, with current HRC spreads at US$207/t versus a long-run average of US$245/t, impacted by elevated Chinese steel exports.

Citi retains a $26.50 target price.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $23.38 Difference: $3.12
If BSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.04, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CPU as Equal-weight (3) -

Computershare reaffirmed FY25 EPS guidance of circa 135c, with earnings (EBIT) excluding margin income  expected to grow 30% year-on-year.

However, Morgan Stanley notes FY25 margin income was revised down to US$750m from US$760m due to weaker average client balances. 

Despite the margin income downgrade, underlying revenue ex-margin income remains in line with expectations, driven by continued strength in employee share plans and steady corporate actions activity, explain the analysts.

No change to Equal-weight rating or $34.70 target. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $34.70 Current Price is $38.94 Difference: minus $4.24 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $38.89, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CPU as Sell (5) -

Computershare reconfirmed FY EPS growth guidance of 15%, with lower growth prospects for margin income balances anticipated in 2H25, UBS details.

The trend is expected to continue into FY26 as cash rates fall, and the analyst now forecasts a -6% headwind to profit growth, leading to a flat outlook for FY26 EPS.

UBS also questions the sustainability of transactional revenue trends across employee share plans and stakeholder relationship management.

The stock remains Sell rated on valuation concerns, with UBS lowering its FY26 EPS estimate by -1%. Target price moves to $38.70 from $39.00.

Target price is $38.70 Current Price is $38.94 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $38.89, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CVN as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has downgraded its crude oil price forecasts to US$60/bbl from US$70/bbl in 2025, and to US$70/bbl from US$80/bbl in 2026.

The broker assumes an AUD/USD rate of 63c for 2025 and 65c for 2026. Further out, the oil price is expected to revert to the US$70–US$80/bbl range, as a higher price will be needed to boost investment in new supply.

Ord Minnett’s analysis also suggests the average time for oil prices to bottom from a peak in the cycle is around five months, and therefore recommends investors “buy the dips” on selective stocks.

Karoon Energy ((KAR)) is Buy rated, along with Santos ((STO)) and Woodside Energy((WDS)), which has been upgraded from Hold.

The broker also favours refiners Ampol ((ALD)) and Viva Energy ((VEA)), both Buy rated. 

Target price for Carnarvon Energy is set at 14c, with EPS estimates cut by -3.8% and -12.8% for FY25/FY26, respectively. No change to Hold rating.

Target price is $0.14 Current Price is $0.11 Difference: $0.03
If CVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DNL as Neutral (3) -

Ahead of Dyno Nobel's 1H25 result, Citi cut its target price to $2.45 while retaining its Neutral rating.

The broker believes demand for explosives could accelerate, but heightened competition, tariff-related uncertainties and increasing underground operations are headwinds. 

The company had previously flagged a further FY25 EBIT earnings skew to 2H. However, the broker believes fertiliser sales are unlikely to catch up to the 1H shortfall.

Manufacturing business update could disappoint, but real estate asset and distribution are expected to meet expectations.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.34 Difference: $0.11
If DNL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.09, suggesting upside of 27.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DNL as Buy (1) -

Ahead of Dyno Nobel's 1H25 result on May 12, UBS notes the company previously flagged weather disruptions will likely lead FY25 EBIT to skew more to 2H, a 10%/90% split vs 20%/80% before.

The broker is forecasting 1H25 group EBITA of $161m vs the consensus of $167m. The broker expects an update on the separation of the fertilisers business and share buy-back plans.

Buy. Target unchanged at $3.50.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.34 Difference: $1.16
If DNL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.09, suggesting upside of 27.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DXS as Neutral (3) -

At the 3Q25 update, Dexus reaffirmed FY25 AFFO and DFS guidance, and Citi's forecasts align with both.

Commentary was positive, with office occupancy at 93.2%, industrial at 95.7%, and rent collections at 100%. The broker notes the REIT benefits from a Sydney CBD concentration as sub-lease availability is down over -50% since 2020 across major CBDs.

The REIT highlighted $960m of settled/exchanged deals mainly within its managed funds.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $7.80.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $7.50 Difference: $0.3
If DXS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.98, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HMC as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley considers HMC Capital's business update is neutral to mildly negative, with several project timelines pushed back.

The Energy Transition fund’s first close has been delayed to 2H 2025 from H1, and its $2bn target is now described as "longer-term", note the analysts. Similarly, the HURF fund’s expected launch has shifted to FY26.

Despite delays, management reiterated its $50bn assets under management (AUM) target within 3-5 years and confirmed no equity raise is needed, with sufficient liquidity to fund upcoming obligations.

FY25 pre-tax EPS guidance remains on track at 66c, highlights Morgan Stanley.

The broker maintains an Equal-weight rating and a $6.30 target price, viewing execution risks and timeline slippage as key headwinds, partially offset by robust long-term growth ambition. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $4.87 Difference: $1.43
If HMC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.26, suggesting upside of 63.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IMD as Hold (3) -

Imdex posted a soft 3Q FY25 update, according to Bell Potter, with unaudited revenue of $100.1m, flat quarter-on-quarter, and down -1% year-on-year, missing Bell Potter’s $105.2m estimate.

Exploration spend remained subdued despite 2025 budget uplifts, though SaaS platforms Datarock and Krux continued to gain traction, highlight the analysts.

Management maintains activity should improve in FY26, in line with Bell Potter’s expectations.

S&P data shows global exploration drilling has plateaued, with 2025 budgets likely flat or modestly down, notes the broker.

Meanwhile, junior equity raisings rose 41% year-on-year in April, particularly in gold, though April activity fell -32% month-on-month due to market volatility. 

The broker's earnings forecasts have been cut due to softer revenue and margin assumptions and the target price falls to $2.65 from $2.75. Hold maintained.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.81 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If IMD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.88, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IMD as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes Imdex's 3Q25 update showed a resilient quarter with steady demand in most regions, except Australia and Mali.

The broker notes implied revenue from 4Q based on FY25 expectations is $117m which is 8% higher y/y and is a big ask even with progressive improvement in the East Coast.

The broker also sees downside risks to FY26 earnings forecasts.

Neutral. Target price $2.85.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.81 Difference: $0.04
If IMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.88, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IMD as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes a trading update by management at Imdex revealed 3Q trading is slightly below market expectations.

The broker points out around 20% sequential growth in 4Q revenue will be needed, above normal seasonality, to hit the 2H consensus revenue estimate.

While resource companies reported increased exploration budgets, management noted there was lower deployment in 3Q25.

The target falls to $2.80 from $2.90. Neutral.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.81 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If IMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.88, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IMD as Add (1) -

Imdex reported its March quarter update with revenue of $100m, which was in line with the previous quarter and down -1% on a year earlier.

Morgans does not specifically forecast quarterly revenue; nevertheless, the forex tailwind was expected to be around $4m in revenue, compared to the circa $1.5m actual currency impact.

The difference implies the base business is going backwards, the broker infers. Positively, sensor volumes resumed growth in the period, while fluids declined again and directional core drilling was down slightly.

Margins are expected to be higher in this quarter than in 1H25, with capex rising an anticipated 60% on the first half.

There are no changes to Morgans’ earnings forecasts. Add rating and $3.20 target remain.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.81 Difference: $0.39
If IMD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.88, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IMD as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes Imdex reported 3Q25 revenue of $100m, down -1% on a year earlier and in line with 2Q25, but missing both the broker's and consensus expectations of circa 4% growth.

Market conditions appear to have remained constant over the period, and the expected forex tailwinds did not emerge, the analyst details, inferring the underlying results were softer.

UBS attributes the shortfall to adverse weather in Queensland and New South Wales, and political issues in Africa. The analyst lowers the 2H25 revenue forecast by -5% to $211m and the FY25 earnings (EBITDA) estimate to $127m, from $131m previously.

Target price slips to $2.90 from $3.00. No change to Neutral rating.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.81 Difference: $0.09
If IMD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.88, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IMM as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter observes Immutep reported highly encouraging survival data from its Phase 2 trial in head and neck cancer patients.

The trial showed a median overall survival of 17.6 months for efti plus pembrolizuma, significantly exceeding the circa 11 months seen with current chemo-based standards, explain the analysts.

While the data is promising, limitations include the small 31-patient dataset, absence of a control arm, and pending results from other patient cohorts, highlights the broker.

Bell Potter maintains a Speculative Buy rating and a target price of $0.70.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0.36
If IMM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 106% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ING as Hold (3) -

Inghams Group has reaffirmed FY25 guidance, with trading trends improved in 3Q25, notes Bell Potter.

Nine-month volumes are down -2.2% versus -2.7% in 1H25, led by a volume recovery in Australia and steady growth in New Zealand, explain the analysts.

Net selling prices (NSP) also strengthened slightly, up 1.2% year-on-year across the group. Importantly, Inghams has now replaced over 92% of lost Woolworths Group ((WOW)) volumes, up from around 75% at 1H25, highlights the broker.

Also, feed cost pressures have eased, with wheat and soybean meal prices down -9% and -13% respectively.

The Hold rating is retained, and the target rises to $3.60 from $3.50.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: $0.05
If ING meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.58, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ING as Neutral (3) -

UBS views the third quarter trading update from Inghams Group as "solid," with approximately 92% of Woolworths Group ((WOW)) volumes now replaced, compared to 75% at the end of December 2024, the broker states.

The average selling price rose 1.2% year-to-date, up slightly from 1H25 at 1%, which is viewed as a very robust result by the company, given the replacement of demand and wholesale prices declining by -9% in FY25.

Management reiterated its FY25 earnings guidance of $236m–$250m, with volume growth of around 1% to 3%.

Due to higher average selling prices, UBS lifts its 2H25 earnings (EBITDA) forecast by 4% to $241m, which stands at the mid-point of guidance, the analyst details.

UBS continues to like the leading position held by Inghams in the A&NZ poultry market and maintains a Neutral rating, with an upgraded target price to $3.65 from $3.50.

Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: $0.1
If ING meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.58, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates INR as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes ioneer’s release of preliminary metallurgical test results, which indicate that streams 2 and 3 at Rhyolite Ridge may support an improvement in lithium feed grades.

The broker views this as positive but considers any expansion to be a fair way off.

Speculative Buy rating maintained with a 30c target price.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: $0.17
If INR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 131% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JBH as Buy (1) -

Citi's first take on JB Hi-Fi's third quarter report reveals the company is trading slightly below the broker's 2H25 earnings expectations.

The company reported 2Q25 like-for-like sales growth of 6%, which met consensus but came in below the analyst's forecast of 7% for 2H25.

The Good Guys' like-for-like sales momentum slowed to 4.1% in the period versus 5.9% in the January trading update, Citi notes, implying February and March like-for-like sales growth of circa 3%, well below consensus at 5.3% for 2H25 and the analyst's forecast of 6%.

JB Hi-Fi NZ also reported a decline in like-for-like sales growth to 7.5% from 10% in the trading update, but this remains above expectations.

Citi anticipates some consensus earnings downgrades, notably for The Good Guys, and expects the stock to trade lower today.

Target $110. Buy rated.

Target price is $110.00 Current Price is $103.61 Difference: $6.39
If JBH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $94.94, suggesting downside of -8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHX as Neutral (3) -

James Hardie Industries published transaction documents related to the proposed, now controversial, deal with Azek.

The initial bid was all scrip, where Azek would own 34% of the combined business and Citi estimates it was around US$7.3bn, including debt. Three more bids were made after that.

The bids were all based on higher estimates before macro uncertainty, the broker notes, adding Azek's estimated synergies of US$328m were lower than James Hardie's US$350m estimate.

The broker highlights break fee for this transaction is US$272m, and if that happens, it would apply to Azek and not James Hardie.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $56.

Target price is $56.00 Current Price is $37.47 Difference: $18.53
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $52.74, suggesting upside of 42.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JHX as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley reviews further details on James Hardie Industries' proposed acquisition of Azek from the Azek proxy statement/prospectus.

The analysts highlight Azek's ambitious growth forecasts with earnings (EBIT) margins expanding to 26% from 17%.

Azek’s projections for the combined entity suggest US$10bn revenue and US$3bn EBIT by FY30, implying to the broker a 20% earnings compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over FY25-30.

Synergy assumptions differ slightly, with Azek estimating US$385m in incremental revenue and US$208m in adjusted EBITDA versus James Hardie’s US$500m and US$225m in EBIT, respectively.

Overweight rating and $55 target reiterated. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $55.00 Current Price is $37.47 Difference: $17.53
If JHX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $52.74, suggesting upside of 42.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates KAR as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has downgraded its crude oil price forecasts to US$60/bbl from US$70/bbl in 2025, and to US$70/bbl from US$80/bbl in 2026.

The broker assumes an AUD/USD rate of 63c for 2025 and 65c for 2026. Further out, the oil price is expected to revert to the US$70–US$80/bbl range, as a higher price will be needed to boost investment in new supply.

Ord Minnett’s analysis also suggests the average time for oil prices to bottom from a peak in the cycle is around five months, and therefore recommends investors “buy the dips” on selective stocks.

Karoon Energy is Buy rated, along with Santos ((STO)) and Woodside Energy ((WDS)), which has been upgraded from Hold.

The broker also favours refiners Ampol ((ALD)) and Viva Energy ((VEA)), both Buy rated.

Target price for Karoon Energy is set at $2.60, down from $2.80, with EPS estimates cut by -6.7% and -25.5% for 2025 and 2026 respectively.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $1.42 Difference: $1.18
If KAR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 83% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.17, suggesting upside of 51.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MFG as Buy (1) -

Magellan Financial's -$1.0bn net outflow in April was better than UBS' forecast for -$1.35bn. The institutional outflow of -$0.9bn was within the infrastructure strategy and in line with what the broker expected following portfolio manager Gerald Stack's exit.

Overall, the broker considers the update positive, with funds under management higher due to stronger markets in April. The analyst's current forecasts allow for a further -$2.3bn net outflow from infrastructure strategies until end-June.

EPS forecast for FY25 lifted by 1% and by 8% for FY26.

Buy. Target rises to $9.20 from $8.85.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $7.93 Difference: $1.27
If MFG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.44, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MPL as Buy (1) -

Medibank Private reported its 3Q25 trading update, which revealed better policy growth and hospital claims coming in lower than anticipated, UBS highlights.

Management believes growth has tracked in line with the market and the guidance for market growth in 2H25.

UBS continues to build conviction around its margin expansion expectations for FY26, driven by lower hospital claims and more robust growth in the higher-margin non-resident business. The broker notes its FY26 EPS estimate sits 5% above consensus.

Buy rating and $5.10 target price retained.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.72 Difference: $0.38
If MPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.67, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NAB as Sell (5) -

National Australia Bank's 1H25 revenue missed expectations and underlying revenue missed Citi's forecast by -1.5% as the top-line got a boost from a recovery in Markets & Treasury business (M&T).

Net interest margin (NIM) also got a boost from M&T, but excluding that, the -3bps decline was in line with Westpac's ((WBC)) 1H25 outcome.

The broker assesses the lower cost to be a result of a 2H skew. Bad debt charge of -$348m was better than anticipated.

Overall, the broker expects a small downgrade to the top-line forecast, noting underlying weakness considering modest NIM miss and the stronger contribution from M&T.

Sell. Target unchanged at $30.50.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $35.30 Difference: minus $4.8 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $33.31, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NAB as Neutral (3) -

Upon initial glance, UBS analysts saw a softer Q2 FY25 but, overall, National Australia Bank's 1H 25 results beat consensus, driven by a lower current loss ratio (CLR).

While the interim dividend matched consensus, the broker believes the cash diluted EPS of 114.5cps is higher than the 111.2c anticipated by consensus. UBS's own forecast was 116.7cps.

Neutral. Target $37.50. Commentary highlights the shares are trading more than one standard deviation above their historical multiples.

Target price is $37.50 Current Price is $35.30 Difference: $2.2
If NAB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.31, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NHF as Neutral (3) -

Citi suggests the downgrade in nib Holdings' 2H25 outlook for New Zealand underlying operating profit to an operating FY25 loss is not a complete surprise given elevated claims inflation.

The broker now forecasts FY25 underlying profit of $236m, at the low end of the company's $235-250m guidance range.

FY25 EPS forecast cut by -4% and FY26 by -2%. Neutral. Target cut to $6.90 from $6.95.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $6.86 Difference: $0.04
If NHF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.89, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NHF as Neutral (3) -

UBS views the 3Q25 trading update from nib Holdings as mixed. Policyholder growth appears to be meeting the guidance range of 3%, with the rate rise of 5.79% as of April 1 expected to support 4Q25, the broker explains.

Margins seem to have been more robust than anticipated, with lower claims inflation noted across the industry, the analyst highlights.

UBS prefers Medibank Private ((MPL)) over nib Holdings due to ongoing concerns regarding New Zealand operations and earnings volatility.

nib Holdings' target price is raised to $7.35 from $7.20, with the Neutral rating unchanged.

Target price is $7.35 Current Price is $6.86 Difference: $0.49
If NHF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.89, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NXT as Buy (1) -

Citi believes the 50MW contract win by NextDC may have disappointed some, but it met its own expectations.

Commentary suggests the bigger positive in the announcement was the fast billing ramp, with the contract reaching the top revenue run-rate by FY28.

The broker highlights this poses upside risk to consensus forecasts. No near-term earnings revisions are expected. Buy. Target $18.70.

Target price is $18.70 Current Price is $13.71 Difference: $4.99
If NXT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.50, suggesting upside of 43.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NXT as Add (1) -

Further to yesterday's update (below), Morgans highlights the announcement by NextDC yesterday that it has secured a 50MW hyperscale AI deal for its Melbourne facility.

The analyst emphasises this is a step up and ahead of expectations, involving a large AI platform with around 2MW BAU (enterprise sales) in the March 2025 quarter.

Target of $18.80 retained with Add rating.

Morgans dissects the latest updates from cloud service providers, including Google Cloud, Microsoft's Azure, Amazon's AWS, and Meta, showing the April results were generally better than expected and AI commentary more upbeat alongside data centre demand.

Capex from the tech majors rose an average of 2%, the broker notes, to US$309bn, a rise of 46% on a year earlier.

Data centre stocks, including NextDC, started de-rating three months ago, along with the company's largest clients of Microsoft, AWS, and Alphabet.

The analyst believes NextDC is well placed to benefit from growth in demand. Medium-term growth is underwritten by around 60MW that is contracted, with revenue streams to flow over time.

Target price is $18.80 Current Price is $13.71 Difference: $5.09
If NXT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.50, suggesting upside of 43.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NXT as Buy (1) -

UBS is enthusiastic about the latest update from NextDC, stating that 52MW has been contracted, including the company’s first-ever major AI deployment contract, which the analyst believes should help temper some of the concerns around AI market growth and demand.

The broker also explains this represents a new six-month contract record for the company and marks a "material step-change" in megawatt activation and billing.

UBS states the new contract will contribute to revenue generation in FY28, which is earlier than the average 5.5-year activation profile for previous large-scale deployments.

The broker reiterates strong conviction in the structural thematics, with robust growth in cloud and AI opportunities.

Buy rated. Target price raised to $19.80 from $19.20.

Target price is $19.80 Current Price is $13.71 Difference: $6.09
If NXT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.50, suggesting upside of 43.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORG as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has downgraded its crude oil price forecasts to US$60/bbl from US$70/bbl in 2025, and to US$70/bbl from US$80/bbl in 2026.

The broker assumes an AUD/USD rate of 63c for 2025 and 65c for 2026. Further out, the oil price is expected to revert to the US$70–US$80/bbl range, as a higher price will be needed to boost investment in new supply.

Ord Minnett’s analysis also suggests the average time for oil prices to bottom from a peak in the cycle is around five months, and therefore recommends investors “buy the dips” on selective stocks.

Karoon Energy ((KAR)) is Buy rated, along with Santos ((STO)) and Woodside Energy ((WDS)), which has been upgraded from Hold.

The broker also favours refiners Ampol ((ALD)) and Viva Energy ((VEA)), both Buy rated.

Target price for Origin Energy is set at $10.50, down from $10.70, with EPS estimates cut by -1.6% for FY26. Hold rating retained.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $10.72 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.59, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORI as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Ahead of Orica's 1H25 result this week, Citi has upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral. Target price trimmed to $18.90 from $19.00.

The broker believes demand for explosives could accelerate, but heightened competition, tariff-related uncertainties and increasing underground operations are headwinds. 

The analyst forecasts EBIT contribution from "Beyond Blasting" to reach 22% by FY22. Other upside risks come from gold production driving specialty chemical mining and uplift in exploration boosting digital solutions.

Target price is $18.90 Current Price is $16.48 Difference: $2.42
If ORI meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.07, suggesting upside of 25.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORI as Buy (1) -

Orica will publish 1H25 results on May 8, and UBS expects 1H25 EBITA growth of 29% to $455m, higher than the consensus of $448m.

The broker expects leverage of 1.3x at the 1H25 result, falling further to 0.9x for FY25, versus the company's target range of 1.25-2.0x flagged at the March Investor Day.

Commentary suggests the outlook for the ammonium nitrate market and future contract pricing will be in focus.

Buy. Target unchanged at $22.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $16.48 Difference: $5.52
If ORI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.07, suggesting upside of 25.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PNI as Neutral (3) -

Pinnacle Investment Management reported third quarter FY25 FUM growth of 3% on the previous quarter, which was broadly in line with UBS' expectations but appeared to reflect stronger organic growth, with net flows of $6.2bn versus the forecast of $5.3bn.

Given the challenging market volatility over the period, this was a "resilient" result, the broker states, reflecting the benefits of Pinnacle’s diversified platform.

UBS believes the outlook for Pinnacle is positive, with robust flow expectations. The analyst lifts EPS forecasts by 1% and 5% for FY25/FY26, respectively.

No change to the Neutral rating due to perceived valuation constraints, which are extended at current levels. Target price raised to $19.50 from $18.40.

Target price is $19.50 Current Price is $18.40 Difference: $1.1
If PNI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.56, suggesting upside of 22.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PTM as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

Funds under management (FUM) by Platinum Asset Management fell by -6.1% in April to $9.65bn, driven by -$243m in net outflows and -$386m from investment performance and currency impacts, explains Bell Potter.

The result was worse-than-expected, with outflows nearly double the broker's forecast. It's noted a -$958m institutional mandate loss, effective May 9, will likely remove around -$10m in annual revenue. 

The analysts ponder whether this redemption was expected when the merger with L1 was announced last week.

The broker lowers its target price to 52c from 58c and downgrades to Sell from Hold, citing uncertainty from the mandate loss.

Target price is $0.52 Current Price is $0.63 Difference: minus $0.105 (current price is over target).
If PTM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PTM as Sell (5) -

Platinum Asset Management announced a decline in FUM of -6.1% in April, due to net outflows of -2.4% of FUM and weaker equity markets accounting for -3.8% of FUM.

UBS notes the net outflows of -$243m were in line with expectations and reflected a slowdown from the previous average monthly outflows of around -$330m.

The company also pointed to the loss of an institutional mandate worth -$958m, or circa 10% of FUM.

Sell rating retained due to ongoing risks around outflows and uncertainty regarding the L1 deal. Target price remains at 50c.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.63 Difference: minus $0.125 (current price is over target).
If PTM meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SCG as Buy (1) -

Scentre Group reported a trading update which, at first glance, Citi notes, shows FY25 funds from operations growth of 4.3% to 22.75c per share, driven by operational momentum and the accretive impact of a subordinated note buyback.

The analyst notes average leasing spreads rose 2.1%, with occupancy at 99.6% and average specialty rent escalations of 4.4%, which Citi views as a sign of the group’s negotiating strength.

Retail sales rose 2.8% over 1Q25, and management has emphasised a tight leasing market in Australia.

The target price for Buy-rated Scentre Group is $3.90.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.66 Difference: $0.24
If SCG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.77, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SDR as Buy (1) -

Citi noted SiteMinder's trading update was largely in line with its downgraded forecasts earlier this week.

The company now expects lower annual recurring revenue growth due to softer transaction activity ahead of the Northern hemisphere holiday period.

The broker cut the FY25 revenue forecast for the new Smart Distribution program marginally to $6.5m but expects it to more than double in FY26 to $15m as distribution partners grow. The broker also expects C-Plus ramp-up to be a FY26 story, forecasting $10m revenue in FY26.

Buy. Target unchanged at $6.60.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $3.78 Difference: $2.82
If SDR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 75% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.68, suggesting upside of 67.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SDR as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley remains Overweight on SiteMinder following the company's trading update reaffirming expectations for FY25 annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth to exceed 22% in the first half. The previously mentioned 30% target was not formally re-iterated.

Revenue guidance for Smart Distribution remains unchanged at $5-10m for FY25, while Channels Plus adoption currently stands at 3,000 of 47,000 hotels, observes the analyst.

Management re-affirmed SiteMinder remains free cash flow positive for FY25. Morgan Stanley maintains a cautious view on valuation, reflecting high growth but also high competition and churn.

While upside risks include new customer momentum and product traction, downside risks relate to hotel distribution consolidation, upselling challenges, and competitive threats, explains the broker.

The $6.80 target is retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $3.78 Difference: $3.02
If SDR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 80% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.68, suggesting upside of 67.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SIG as Neutral (3) -

Sigma Healthcare's trading update was consistent with Citi’s expectations, with normalised earnings (EBIT) growth broadly in line with Chemist Warehouse Group’s (CWG) 36% increase for 1H25.

The broker forecasts $891m in June FY25 revenue, incorporating 12 months of CWG and partial contribution from Sigma post-acquisition.

The integration is progressing well, suggest the analysts, with ongoing progress towards the targeted $60m in annual cost synergies.

While CWG is expected to continue gaining market share from competitors due to strong pricing and range, Citi remains cautious on the international growth outlook. 

The broker retains a Neutral rating and a $2.90 target price.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.94 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If SIG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.96, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SIG as Overweight (1) -

Sigma Healthcare reported 36% normalised EBIT growth for the nine months to 31 March (excluding transaction costs), consistent with Chemist Warehouse Group’s performance, explains Morgan Stanley.

It is the broker's assessment this outcome signals strong operational momentum post-merger. Integration progress includes centralising support teams, optimising distribution centres, and converting all 28 My Chemist stores to the Amcal and Discount Drug Stores network.

A detailed review by management of the targeted $60m in annual cost synergies is underway, with early implementation of freight consolidation and network streamlining, highlight the analysts.

Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating and a $3.45 target price. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $2.94 Difference: $0.51
If SIG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.96, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SKC as Neutral (3) -

SkyCity Entertainment has lowered FY25 earnings (EBITDA) guidance to around NZ$216m from NZ$225–NZ$245m due to reduced contributions from casinos in Adelaide and Auckland.

UBS notes reduced spend per visitor in Auckland, reflecting a weaker economy, while Adelaide was impacted by stricter harm minimisation controls.

UBS accordingly lowers its earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by -5% and -4% for FY25 and FY26, resulting in an expected FY25 earnings (EBITDA) decline of -22% versus FY24.

Neutral rating retained. Target price lowered to NZ$1.23 from NZ$1.45. The analyst does not anticipate a recommencement in dividends until FY27.

Current Price is $1.00. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SPG as Buy (1) -

The SPC Global share price has declined by -80% since listing in December, which runs counter to the latest company update, Ord Minnett notes, as management states everything is going as planned.

Management reiterated FY26 earnings (EBITDA) guidance of $29m, and a new management team is now in place, which is highlighted as having a more positive impact on financials.

The Buy rating and 90c target price are retained.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.48
If SPG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 114% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates STO as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has downgraded its crude oil price forecasts to US$60/bbl from US$70/bbl in 2025, and to US$70/bbl from US$80/bbl in 2026.

The broker assumes an AUD/USD rate of 63c for 2025 and 65c for 2026. Further out, the oil price is expected to revert to the US$70–US$80/bbl range, as a higher price will be needed to boost investment in new supply.

Ord Minnett’s analysis also suggests the average time for oil prices to bottom from a peak in the cycle is around five months, and therefore recommends investors “buy the dips” on selective stocks.

Karoon Energy ((KAR)) is Buy rated, along with Santos and Woodside Energy ((WDS)), which has been upgraded from Hold.

The broker also favours refiners Ampol ((ALD)) and Viva Energy ((VEA)), both Buy rated.

Target price for Santos is set at $7.50, down from $8.20, with EPS estimates cut by -3.6% and -23.1% for 2025 and 2026 respectively.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $5.88 Difference: $1.62
If STO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.54, suggesting upside of 25.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates STX as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Ord Minnett has downgraded its crude oil price forecasts to US$60/bbl from US$70/bbl in 2025, and to US$70/bbl from US$80/bbl in 2026.

The broker assumes an AUD/USD rate of 63c for 2025 and 65c for 2026. Further out, the oil price is expected to revert to the US$70–US$80/bbl range, as a higher price will be needed to boost investment in new supply.

Ord Minnett’s analysis also suggests the average time for oil prices to bottom from a peak in the cycle is around five months, and therefore recommends investors “buy the dips” on selective stocks.

Karoon Energy is Buy rated, along with Santos ((STO)) and Woodside Energy ((WDS)), which has been upgraded from Hold.

The broker also favours refiners Ampol ((ALD)) and Viva Energy ((VEA)), both Buy rated.

Target price for Strike Energy is set at 31c, with EPS estimate cut by -18.1% for FY26. The stock is downgraded to Hold from Buy.

Target price is $0.31 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.13
If STX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.25, suggesting upside of 29.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUL as Underweight (5) -

In an arrangement with Accent Group ((AX1)), Sports Direct, a leading global sports retailer, will enter the Australian market.

Morgan Stanley believes this development could potentially be at the expense of the market incumbent, Rebel, which is owned by Super Retail.

The broker expects Rebel to face significant market share losses and heightened competitive disruption, which will likely place pressure on divisional operating margins.

The broker's target for Super Retail falls to $12.20 from $13.47. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $12.20 Current Price is $13.25 Difference: minus $1.05 (current price is over target).
If SUL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.59, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TPW as Buy (1) -

Citi reckons Temple & Webster's update was positive with 18% y/y growth in the 1 Jan-5 May period, and within that, the very recent growth trend from March 1 was up 23% y/y.

The broker is more pleased sales growth was achieved even though housing indicators have not improved materially, and the company now expects FY25 EBITDA to be at the top end of the guidance range.

Further upside is likely from shipping rate deflation in the US and expectations of improvement in housing on expected rate cuts and government policies, the commentary suggests.

Buy. Target unchanged at $21.10.

Target price is $21.10 Current Price is $17.23 Difference: $3.87
If TPW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.91, suggesting downside of -9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates VCX as Neutral (3) -

Vicinity Centres upgraded FY25 guidance to the top end of the previous range for both FFO and AFFO, driven by continued strength in portfolio metrics. Citi and consensus forecasts align with the top end.

No change to the FY25 distribution guidance, which is still expected to be at the lower end of the 95-100% range.

Citi notes the leasing spread of 3.5% and occupancy at 99.4% indicate landlords continue to hold negotiating power. While the broker expects new developments to be dilutive on an FFO basis, it is optimistic about strong growth and accretion in the medium term.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $2.40.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.45 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If VCX meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.29, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VEA as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has downgraded its crude oil price forecasts to US$60/bbl from US$70/bbl in 2025, and to US$70/bbl from US$80/bbl in 2026.

The broker assumes an AUD/USD rate of 63c for 2025 and 65c for 2026. Further out, the oil price is expected to revert to the US$70–US$80/bbl range, as a higher price will be needed to boost investment in new supply.

Ord Minnett’s analysis also suggests the average time for oil prices to bottom from a peak in the cycle is around five months, and therefore recommends investors “buy the dips” on selective stocks.

Karoon Energy ((KAR)) is Buy rated, along with Santos ((STO)) and Woodside Energy ((WDS)), which has been upgraded from Hold.

The broker also favours refiners Ampol ((ALD)) and Viva Energy, both Buy rated.

Target price for Viva Energy is set at $3.40, with EPS estimate cut by -0.8% for 2026.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $1.79 Difference: $1.61
If VEA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 90% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.51, suggesting upside of 36.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Citi updates its Louisiana LNG (LLNG) model for Woodside Energy following the final investment decision (FID), estimating a 12.4% IRR at a US$3.20/mmbtu toll rate.

Woodside's LLNG valuation is supported by a base case long-term Henry Hub price of US$3.20/mmbtu and a 70% interest in HoldCo (the holding company that owns the equity interest in the LNG project), explains the broker. 

Citi sees scope for further upside from potential HoldCo sell-downs and project monetisation, which could strengthen the balance sheet amid macro headwinds and S&P’s recent credit downgrade.

Neutral, Target $21.50.

Target price is $21.50 Current Price is $19.94 Difference: $1.56
If WDS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.97, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WDS as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Ord Minnett has downgraded its crude oil price forecasts to US$60/bbl from US$70/bbl in 2025, and to US$70/bbl from US$80/bbl in 2026.

The broker assumes an AUD/USD rate of 63c for 2025 and 65c for 2026. Further out, the oil price is expected to revert to the US$70–US$80/bbl range, as a higher price will be needed to boost investment in new supply.

Ord Minnett’s analysis also suggests the average time for oil prices to bottom from a peak in the cycle is around five months, and therefore recommends investors “buy the dips” on selective stocks.

Karoon Energy ((KAR)) is Buy rated, along with Santos ((STO)) and Woodside Energy , which has been upgraded from Hold.

The broker also favours refiners Ampol ((ALD)) and Viva Energy ((VEA)), both Buy rated.

Target price for Woodside Energy is set at $25, down from $27, with EPS estimates cut by -8% and -46.9% for 2025 and 2026 respectively.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $19.94 Difference: $5.06
If WDS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.97, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WTC as Buy (1) -

WiseTech Global's update revealed the company has delayed the product launch of Container Transport Optimisation (CTO) further, even though the core functionality has been completed, Citi notes.

The company has removed reference to the initial Australian launch in 2H25 from the update, which is in line with the broker's expectations that "material" revenue from CTO is unlikely before FY27.

CargoWise Next launch appears to be meeting expectations, and Citi believes consensus and the market are underestimating the revenue growth potential from the new features.

The broker continues to like the medium-term prospects for WiseTech Global, although there might be some share price weakness due to the CTO delay.

Buy rated with a $115 target price.

Target price is $115.00 Current Price is $92.09 Difference: $22.91
If WTC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources