Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates A11 as Outperform (1) -

Atlantic Lithium has released initial drilling results from Ewoyaa South-2 which signal multiple high-grade intersections.

Macquarie believes there is upside to mine life and the resource base through exploration with accelerated DMS sales and byproduct credits also presenting potential upside to its base case. More infill drilling will be conducted to upgrade mineralisation to indicated.

Outperform and 80c target retained.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.62 Difference: $0.185
If A11 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ARU as Speculative Buy (1) -

Arafura Rare Earths has a non binding offtake agreement with GE Renewable, and, via this connection, the Nolan's project has received in-principle support of up to US$300m from Export Development Canada (EDC), explains Bell Potter.

This contribution brings total debt funding support to $1.6bn, in excess of the $1bn the broker originally forecast would be needed.

The analysts remain positive on the longer-term outlook for NdPr Prices and maintain a long-term forecast of US$95/kg. Prices fell to around US$63/kg in April and are now steadily recovering, notes Bell Potter.

The Speculative Buy rating and 72c target are unchanged.

Target price is $0.72 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: $0.375
If ARU meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 109% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AX1 as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

UBS highlights evidence that the build up in household savings and the strong labour market during the pandemic are no longer sufficient to offset cost-of-living pressures. Spending is now falling across a broad range of retailers.

As a result earnings estimates are reduced along with valuations and lower multiples.

The broker notes the pandemic had a mixed impact on Accent Group, enjoying strong demand for performance and lifestyle footwear yet enduring difficult supply chains and a less effective transition to online.

UBS cuts FY23 and FY24 estimates by -8% and -26%, respectively, anticipating lower sales and gross margins amid higher costs. Rating is downgraded to Sell from Neutral with the target lowered to $1.60 from $2.25.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.66 Difference: minus $0.055 (current price is over target).
If AX1 meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.00, suggesting upside of 25.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BST as Hold (3) -

Best & Less has downgraded 2H profit guidance to $3.6-4.2m from $10-12m, largely driven by weaker trends in the last five weeks and clearance of the winter stock position, explains Bell Potter.

The company is also now focusing upon retaining quality of product, observes the analyst, particularly in the core categories.

In an earlier snapshot of trading for the first 19 weeks of the 2H, sales were down -1.4%, after 24 weeks the decline is -4.5%.

Bell Potter retains its Hold rating in the belief weak near-term earnings are already allowed for in the current share price.

While still constructive on the longer term, the broker acknowledges the company will be more impacted than peers in a weaker consumer environment. The target falls to $1.70 from $1.80.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.89 Difference: minus $0.185 (current price is over target).
If BST meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BST as Neutral (3) -

Best & Less has again lowered second half net profit guidance as sales and gross margins come under further pressure. Second half sales are now expected to be $310-315m, which Macquarie calculates at the mid point represents a -6.6% fall year-on-year.

The broker notes the consumer base remains weak and there is limited upside risk in the short term. Macquarie expects working capital investment will be lower going forward as the company is now procuring stock for lower sales.

Neutral maintained. Macquarie raises the target to $1.89 from $1.70, noting the takeunder offer is now unconditional.

Target price is $1.89 Current Price is $1.89 Difference: $0.005
If BST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CHC as Neutral (3) -

UBS is taking a more conservative approach to operating earnings, revising estimates down -8-9% for Charter Hall. This is designed to capture higher debt costs, reduced development income, subdued transaction markets and reduced income from Paradice Investment Management.

The broker notes inbound inquiries from investors remain high for the stock as the market evaluates exposure to interest-rate sensitive stocks.

UBS retains a Neutral rating and would become more positive on observing rebased asset values and improved gearing capacity in funds. Target is reduced to $12.30 from $14.00.

Target price is $12.30 Current Price is $11.12 Difference: $1.18
If CHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.45, suggesting upside of 30.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates COS as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Bell Potter initiates coverage on digital IT solutions company Cosol with a Buy rating and $1.00 target price. The focus is on enterprise asset management (EAM) software platforms and data management.

Asset-intensive industries such as natural resources, energy and water utilities, defense and public infrastructure utilise the company's EAM technology enabled solutions to optimise operations, explains the broker. Cosol is considered a global leader in EAM.

The analyst applies a 10% valuation premium for the company compared to peers, given the robust contract pipeline in Australia and North America. It's felt growth will be sustained by both organic means and via acquisitions.

Cosol has been expanding internationally, particularly in North America which represents a significant growth opportunity, according to Bell Potter.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.69 Difference: $0.31
If COS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CPU as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

As the share price of Computershare has moved through the trigger level Ord Minnett downgrades to Hold from Accumulate. Target is $25.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $23.39 Difference: $1.61
If CPU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.39, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CYG as Buy (1) -

FY23 guidance for revenue and earnings by Coventry Group was in line with Bell Potter's forecasts.

While the turnaround of Konnect Australia (Trade Distribution) is the greatest driver of value, the broker feels the market is underestimating the quality of the Fluid Systems business.

Based on the broker's valuation techniques, Fluid Systems could validate the majority of the enterprise value of the whole group.

Management's outlook commentary was largely constructive, according to the analyst, citing “robust” demand in its core end markets of mining and non-residential construction.

The target falls to $1.25 from $1.30. Buy.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $0.97 Difference: $0.28
If CYG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HVN as Sell (5) -

UBS highlights evidence that the build up in household savings and the strong labour market during the pandemic are no longer sufficient to offset cost-of-living pressures. Spending is now falling across a broad range of retailers.

As a result earnings estimates are reduced along with valuations and lower multiples. UBS notes Harvey Norman has had a more volatile EBIT margin compared with JB Hi-Fi.

During the pandemic EBIT margins expanded significantly because of operating leverage and reduced tactical support, and this has now started to reverse.

The broker retains a Sell rating because of the challenged category exposure and reduces the target to $3.10 from $3.60.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $3.32 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If HVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates INA as Neutral (3) -

UBS believes the current residential real estate cycle is different: demand exceeding supply is not enough for a recovery.

A rapid "normalisation" of home building approvals is considered unlikely because of a lack of skilled labour and the crowding out by non-residential construction.

Moreover, should demand weaken there is less ability for governments to stimulate via incentives or interest-rate cuts (as per prior cycles), given persistent inflation.

UBS retains a Neutral rating for Ingenia Communities, noting the better relative affordability of manufactured home estates, and raises the target to $4.22 from $4.05.

Target price is $4.22 Current Price is $4.05 Difference: $0.17
If INA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.46, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JBH as Neutral (3) -

UBS highlights evidence that the build up in household savings and the strong labour market during the pandemic are no longer sufficient to offset cost-of-living pressures. Spending is now falling across a broad range of retailers.

As a result earnings estimates are reduced along with valuations and lower multiples. While JB Hi-Fi has enjoyed EBIT margin expansion from operating leverage and reduced discounting in stores, this is forecast to unwind.

UBS reduces estimates by -9% for FY24 and -2% for FY25 and retains a Neutral rating. Target is lowered to $45.00 from $47.50.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $43.52 Difference: $1.48
If JBH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.53, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates KAR as Add (1) -

After a smooth ramp-up at Bauna, according to Morgans, Karoon Energy has narrowed FY23 oil production guidance. As a result, guidance for the temporary crude export tax was reduced, while all other FY23 cost guidance was maintained.

Updated guidance implies 4Q production of around 1.7mmbbl, down from 1.9mmbbl for Bauna/Patola, explains the analyst.

The Add rating is unchanged. Target falls to $3.55 from $3.65.

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: $1.47
If KAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.91, suggesting upside of 43.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LIC as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS believes the current residential real estate cycle is different: demand exceeding supply is not enough for a recovery.

A rapid "normalisation" of home building approvals is considered unlikely because of a lack of skilled labour and the crowding out by non-residential construction.

Moreover, should demand weaken there is less ability for governments to stimulate via incentives or interest-rate cuts (as per prior cycles), given persistent inflation.

UBS upgrades Lifestyle Communities to Buy from Neutral to reflect superior FY24-27 growth expectations amid recovering volumes, and given the better relative affordability of the company's product. Target is reduced to $17.00 from $17.50.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $14.65 Difference: $2.35
If LIC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LLL as Outperform (1) -

Leo Lithium has updated mineral resource estimates at Goulamina by 48% while Macquarie notes measured and indicated categories were upgraded by 26%.

This material uplift is construed very positively as it presents upside risk to the reserves. The company expects to provide an update to reserve estimates in August. Macquarie raises the target to $1.60 from $1.55. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.12 Difference: $0.48
If LLL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LOV as Buy (1) -

UBS highlights evidence that the build up in household savings and the strong labour market during the pandemic are no longer sufficient to offset cost-of-living pressures. Spending is now falling across a broad range of retailers.

As a result earnings estimates are reduced along with valuations and lower multiples.

Lovisa Holdings has had strong sales growth stemming from increasing numbers of stores across existing and new markets, and its low price points are proving resilient with the young customer.

Yet, UBS expects like-for-like sales growth will moderate and reduces estimates by -11% and -13% in FY23 and FY24, respectively. A Buy rating is retained, because of significant store growth potential across multiple markets. Target is reduced to $23 and $28.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $18.73 Difference: $4.27
If LOV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.85, suggesting upside of 46.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LRS as Speculative Buy (1) -

The Colina deposit is part of Latin Resources' 100%-owned Salinas Project located in Brazil. Management has upgraded the Colina mineral resource estimate (MRE) to 45.2Mt at 1.32% Li2O from 13.3Mt at 1.21% Li2O last December.

Bell Potter explains the updated MRE will form the basis of the preliminary economic assessment (PEA) for the Salinas Project, due for completion in the September quarter.

The broker believes the MRE could potentially support production of over 400ktpa spodumene concentrate at Salinas. As a result of revised estimates, Bell Potter raises its target to 37c from 23c and maintains its Speculative Buy rating. 

Target price is $0.37 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.17
If LRS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 85% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MFG as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

As the share price of Magellan Financial has moved through the trigger price Ord Minnett downgrades to Hold from Accumulate.

While the stock has likely passed the worst of its operational headaches, the broker believes it will be difficult to restore its competitive strengths. Target is $10.70.

Target price is $10.70 Current Price is $9.06 Difference: $1.64
If MFG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.82, suggesting downside of -6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MGR as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS believes the current residential real estate cycle is different: demand exceeding supply is not enough for a recovery.

A rapid "normalisation" of home building approvals is considered unlikely because of a lack of skilled labour and the crowding out by non-residential construction.

Moreover, should demand weaken there is less ability for governments to stimulate via incentives or interest-rate cuts (as per prior cycles), given persistent inflation.

UBS reduces earnings estimates for Mirvac Group by -5% for FY24 and FY25 to reflect a slower recovery for land sales and commercial development headwinds.

Rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral to reflect superior FY24-27 growth expectations amid recovering volumes, and given the better relative affordability of the company's product. Target is raised to $2.55 from $2.37.

Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $2.31 Difference: $0.24
If MGR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.61, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MIN as Buy (1) -

No 2023 payments will be made under the Mount Marion toll treatment agreement as Mineral Resources and Gangeng Lithium Co have terminated the arrangement. 

Mineral Resources will continue to sell its Mount Marion spodumene concentrate (SC) to Ganfeng at market prices.

Spodumene sales guidance at Mt Marion has been reduced to 145-150k dmt from the lower end of the 150-170k dmt range, while Wodgina battery chemicals sales guidance was revised up to around 7.25kt from 5.5kt. SC cost guidance was also increased.

At Mount Marion, early results have confirmed exploration potential at depth, highlights the analyst, while a second natural gas discovery at North Erregulla Deep-1 was announced.

The target falls to $90 from $95. Buy.

Target price is $90.00 Current Price is $74.06 Difference: $15.94
If MIN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $86.43, suggesting upside of 18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MIN as Add (1) -

Spodumene sales guidance at Mt Marion has been reduced to 145-150k dmt from the lower end of the 150-170k dmt range. Also at Mt Marion, Mineral Resources and partner (Ganfeng) have agreed to terminate the toll agreement on the project.

Morgans describes the termination as a positive development, given the agreement had become loss making for Mineral Resources. Ganfeng has also agreed to forgive an around -$110m payment (broker's estimate) from Mineral Resources to Ganfeng for the June half. 

Separately, the company announced a new significant gas discovery at North Erregulla Deep-1 (NED-1) in the Perth Basin. Results support NED being a discrete field, according to Morgans.

The Add rating and $93 target are unchanged.

Target price is $93.00 Current Price is $74.06 Difference: $18.94
If MIN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $86.43, suggesting upside of 18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NHF as Lighten (4) -

While there are positive underpinnings for nib Holdings in the short term, Ord Minnett suspects margins for private health insurance will eventually narrow, and by more than the current share price implies.

The broker believes the share price is ignoring the earnings risk stemming from consumers tightening their belts to meet higher interest repayments, and other pressures on the cost of living.

Ord Minnett maintains a Lighten rating and $7 target.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $8.80 Difference: minus $1.8 (current price is over target).
If NHF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.70, suggesting downside of -12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PMV as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

UBS highlights evidence that the build up in household savings and the strong labour market during the pandemic are no longer sufficient to offset cost-of-living pressures. Spending is now falling across a broad range of retailers.

As a result earnings estimates are reduced along with valuations and lower multiples.

Despite a mixed performance during the pandemic, UBS assesses the increasingly challenging environment will weigh on Premier Investments' brands because of trading down and purchases being deferred.

Estimates are reduced by -5% for FY23 and by -17% for FY24. Rating is downgraded to Sell from Neutral and the target reduced to $20 from $26.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $21.03 Difference: minus $1.03 (current price is over target).
If PMV meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.92, suggesting upside of 29.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates REG as Outperform (1) -

Regis Healthcare has sold vacant land and the Hollywood retirement village in Western Australia for $53m. Macquarie notes the sale is consistent with the strategy to realise value from non income-producing assets.

The transaction is expected to deliver a -58% reduction in net debt. Assuming targeted gearing of around 2.0x, the broker estimates there is room for up to $17 5m in acquisitions. Target is raised to $2.40 from $2.10 and an Outperform rating is maintained.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.19 Difference: $0.21
If REG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RFF as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter raises its FY24-25 base interest rate assumptions to reflect rising forward interest rates and downgrades its adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) forecasts for Rural Funds. The group has an unhedged debt position.

Based on available funding lines and planned investment, the analyst believes Rural Funds is adequately funded to complete its capex program.

Shares are trading at an around -39% discount to market net asset value (NAV), the largest discount in the group's listed history, just slightly worse than the discount for peers, explains Bell Potter. Buy.

The target falls to $2.20 from $2.65.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.71 Difference: $0.495
If RFF meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RRL as Outperform (1) -

The annual resource and reserve update from Regis Resources shows no change to McPhillamys while reserve depletion has outstripped gains. Reserves, as of December 31, 2022, were reported at 98mt at 1.1g/t for 3.6m ozs, which was down -13% year-on-year.

Macquarie assesses the update is reflecting an increased focus on the underground where reserves again outpaced depletion and open pit resources are recut into underground estimates.

The key target for growth is below the Garden Well pit at Duketon with the company citing potential for a continuous mineralised system extending to at least 1km of strike. Outperform retained. Target is reduced to $2.80 from $2.90.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $1.95 Difference: $0.855
If RRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.39, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SCG as Neutral (3) -

UBS reassesses long-term cash flows for the shopping malls, which shows the capital intensity of the larger centres to be above market expectations.

The broker's analysis reveals higher-than-expected capital expenditure is required to maintain the income profile and protect the asset valuations for Scentre Group, which remains one of the broker's least preferred stocks in this sector.

Neutral rating retained. Target is reduced to $2.80 from $3.20.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.68 Difference: $0.12
If SCG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.12, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGP as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS believes the current residential real estate cycle is different: demand exceeding supply is not enough for a recovery.

A rapid "normalisation" of home building approvals is considered unlikely because of a lack of skilled labour and the crowding out by non-residential construction.

Moreover, should demand weaken there is less ability for governments to stimulate via incentives or interest-rate cuts (as per prior cycles), given persistent inflation.

As a result the broker reduces earnings estimates for Stockland by -5% in FY24 and FY25 to reflect a slower recovery for land sales and commercial development headwinds. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy and the target reduced to $4.25 from $4.31.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $4.29 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If SGP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.40, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SRG as Buy (1) -

SRG Global has won a $50m contract with the Water Corporation WA, taking its year-to-date contract tally to $1.1bn. This compares with $628m for all of 2022.

Shaw and Partners notes the company has upgraded FY23 guidance twice this year and observes SRG Global is trading on a multiple well below its peers.

Buy rating and $1.10 target price retained.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.72 Difference: $0.38
If SRG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SUL as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

UBS highlights evidence that the build up in household savings and the strong labour market during the pandemic are no longer sufficient to offset cost-of-living pressures. Spending is now falling across a broad range of retailers.

As a result earnings estimates are reduced along with valuations and lower multiples.

For Super Retail EBIT margin expansion has occurred in recent years because of reduced promotions and improved online economics with higher sourcing costs passed on to consumers.

UBS observes this is now changing and reduces estimates by -6% for FY24 and by -8% for FY25. Rating is downgraded to Sell from Neutral and the target lowered to $10.00 from $13.25.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $11.24 Difference: minus $1.24 (current price is over target).
If SUL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.14, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TLG as Speculative Buy (1) -

The lending arm of the European Union, the European Investment Bank (EIB), has provided EUR150m in debt funding support for the Vittangi natural graphite anode business. The EIB has a mandate to support projects which address climate and the environment.

This support for Talga Group covers around 48% of what Bell Potter believes is the total debt funding package, and will go toward development of Stage 1 of the project.

The broker maintains its Speculative Buy rating and $2.50 target.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.35 Difference: $1.15
If TLG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 85% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates UNI as Buy (1) -

UBS highlights evidence that the build up in household savings and the strong labour market during the pandemic are no longer sufficient to offset cost-of-living pressures. Spending is now falling across a broad range of retailers.

As a result earnings estimates are reduced along with valuations and lower multiples.

UBS expects margins for Universal Store will be resilient, given promotional discipline and the ongoing benefits of a shift in mix.

Yet costs are rising because of labour and rent, and while the new "human capital management  system" is expected to yield benefits from FY24 it is unlikely to fully offset forecast operating de-leverage.

Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $3.30 from $4.25.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: $0.63
If UNI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.46, suggesting upside of 34.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VCX as Sell (5) -

UBS reassesses long-term cash flows for the shopping malls, which shows the capital intensity of the larger centres to be above market expectations.

The broker's analysis reveals higher-than-expected capital expenditure is required to maintain the income profile and protect the asset valuations for Vicinity Centres, which remains the broker's least preferred stock in this sector.

Sell rating retained. Target is reduced to $1.78 from $1.91.

Target price is $1.78 Current Price is $1.91 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If VCX meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.02, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

After incorporating the Trion disclosures into its modelling, Citi finds its assessment of the unrisked valuation of Woodside Energy largely unchanged.

The FID on the greenfield oil project is considered as clearly a positive for the production profile and financial returns later in the decade as Pluto and other legacy fields roll off.

Yet, on a long-term basis,  the broker believes Santos ((STO)) offers more compelling growth. Neutral rating and $33 target maintained.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $36.31 Difference: minus $3.31 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $36.68, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Woodside Energy has made a final investment decision for the Trion oil project, which was no surprise to Macquarie. The development timeframe is a little longer than the broker had previously modelled which highlights the complexity of the deepwater project.

If all goes well, this could generate significant cash flow and achieve payback in four years. Mexico also becomes a new exposure for investors in the stock, which slightly raises the overall geopolitical risk profile, the broker adds. Neutral rating and $34 target maintained.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $36.31 Difference: minus $2.31 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $36.68, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WDS as Hold (3) -

First oil is expected in 2028 from the Trion oil project in offshore Mexico, after Woodside Energy announced the final investment decision yesterday. The project was originally acquired via the Petroleum division purchase from BHP Group ((BHP)).

Development capex is expected to be -US$7.2bn with production of 100kbopd for the large high quality oil project (Morgans words).

The broker points out execution will be paramount to unlocking value from the project. 

The Hold rating is unchanged and the target slips to $32.70 from $33.60.

Target price is $32.70 Current Price is $36.31 Difference: minus $3.61 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $36.68, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

As Woodside Energy has made a final decision on its Trion oil project, offshore Mexico, UBS lifts its DCF risk weighting to 85% from 75%. The broker conservatively models total production that is -10% lower than the company's guidance with share of total capital expenditure 10% higher.

Still, the broker remains supportive of the project as it is in a mature basin with low carbon intensity and there is strong free cash flow forecast over the life of the asset. Neutral maintained. Target edges down to $35.90 from $36.00.

Target price is $35.90 Current Price is $36.31 Difference: minus $0.41 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $36.68, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources