Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates APE as Outperform (1) -

Eagers Automotive's trading update featured a profit guidance increase to $195m for the first half, compared to prior guidance of $183-189m and Macquarie's $188m forecast, suggesting the near-term outlook has improved despite supply constraints on new car deliveries.

In the brokers' view, the market is under-appreciating the value of the company's high-margin order bank, with margin normalisation to be orderly despite uncertainty around consumer demand in 2023 as economic activity slows.

An 11x forward PE is -39% below the five year average and a -41% discount to the Small Industrials. Sector de-rating means a target price cut to $16.00 from $17.50. Outperform retained.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $10.91 Difference: $5.09
If APE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.19, suggesting upside of 26.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates APE as Overweight (1) -

Management at Eagers Automotive noted record order backlog growth and ongoing cost-out/efficiency when raising underlying 1H profit guidance by 5%. Morgan Stanley feels investors have already assumed the positive backlog and are pricing in demand destruction.

The broker suggests the backlog could be viewed as a buffer and retains its Overweight rating and $12.00 target price. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $10.91 Difference: $1.09
If APE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.19, suggesting upside of 26.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BPT as Neutral (3) -

Beach Energy has announced the successful completion of the Thylacine North 2 well, the final of the seven-well Otway offshore campaign to refill the Otway Gas Plant. This is an important contribution to East Coast gas supply, Macquarie notes, in the Victorian market where it is needed most.

It's a key milestone, the broker suggests, highlighting that the growth strategy is on track, and the broker expects Beach's focus to now shift to striking a balance between shareholder returns and M&A.

Neutral and $1.72 target retained.

Target price is $1.72 Current Price is $1.69 Difference: $0.03
If BPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BPT as Add (1) -

Morgans increases its oil price forecasts across FY22-26 and lifts its long-term real price estimate to US$65/bbl from US$62/bbl. While there's thought to be long-term value in the sector, some caution is applied due to short-term volatility.

The target price for Beach Energy rises to $1.95 from $1.86 from the increased oil price forecasts, despite an increase in the broker's weighted average cost of capital (WACC) assumption. The Add rating is maintained.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $1.69 Difference: $0.26
If BPT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BRG as Outperform (1) -

Consistent with a June quarter 2022 inventory build for first half FY23 sales, Macquarie estimates Breville's container movements into North America were up 45% half on half, and as June data are preliminary volumes are likely to be revised upward.

It's substantially higher inventory build than recent periods but industry feedback suggests inventory build timing may be scheduled to take advantage of contracted shipping rates, and the broker expects Breville’s strategy to drive earnings growth over the medium to long term will exceed market expectations.

Target falls to $23.35 from $23.80 on forex adjustments. Outperform retained.

Target price is $23.35 Current Price is $19.11 Difference: $4.24
If BRG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.12, suggesting upside of 34.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CGC as Neutral (3) -

Following a 1H trading update by Costa Group, UBS lowers its price target to $2.85 from $3.35 after downgrading forecast earnings to
incorporate lower Citrus and Morocco blueberry returns.

Due to recent weather events, Citrus is producing a lower than expected percentage of first grade product which negatively affects the price, explains the analyst.

The current multiple doesn't provide sufficient valuation support, suggests the broker, and the Neutral rating is maintained.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: $0.25
If CGC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.19, suggesting upside of 23.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates COE as Add (1) -

Morgans increases its oil price forecasts across FY22-26 and lifts its long-term real price estimate to US$65/bbl from US$62/bbl. While there's thought to be long-term value in the sector, some caution is applied due to short-term volatility.

As Cooper Energy's main focus is on domestic gas, the broker makes minimal changes to earnings forecasts and retains its Add rating and $0.31 target price.

Target price is $0.31 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.09
If COE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.28, suggesting upside of 27.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Overweight (1) -

Recent data show Morgan Stanley signs of an accelerating plasma recovery. It's estimated CSL's plasma collections returned to FY19 levels by around the March quarter this year.

Across the industry, collection centre rollouts remain strong, up 10% at June, year-on-year (yoy). Plasma collection centre data show US and EU centres increased 8.4% yoy.

The Overweight rating and $312 target are unchanged. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $312.00 Current Price is $292.69 Difference: $19.31
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $319.32, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVT as Buy (1) -

While the easing of restrictions has been a positive for the small cap leisure stocks within Citi's coverage, the broker notes rising rates and costs of living are a real risk to medium-term demand for leisure-related activities.

Within its coverage, Citi prefers Event Hospitality & Entertainment, with the broker noting potential upside in the company's exposure to hotel and cinema earnings given pent up travel demand.

The broker downgrades FY22 net profit -5% reflecting increased costs, but upgrades FY23-24 5% on an improved outlook for the company's cinema business. The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $16.00 from $18.35.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $13.13 Difference: $2.87
If EVT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GDF as Add (1) -

Morgans increases its price target for Garda Property to $2.07 from $1.83 following announced revaluations across the portfolio including current development projects.

The broker highlights recent leasing activity has been positive though relatively flat DPS growth is expected in FY23/24 as the pipeline builds out.

Target price is $2.07 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: $0.53
If GDF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Underweight (5) -

While market share remains a risk for Insurance Australia Group, Morgan Stanley highlights a recent survey showing new business pricing points to more than 20% growth in Motor and 7% in Home. It's thought these rises may help pay for a higher FY23 CAT budget.

The Underweight rating and $3.70 target are maintained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $4.41 Difference: minus $0.71 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.99, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates KAR as Add (1) -

Morgans increases its oil price forecasts across FY22-26 and lifts its long-term real price estimate to US$65/bbl from US$62/bbl. While there's thought to be long-term value in the sector, some caution is applied due to short-term volatility.

Add-rated Karoon Energy is the broker's top small-cap pick in the sector and the target rises to $3.15 from $2.70 from the increased oil price forecasts, despite an increase in the broker's weighted average cost of capital (WACC) assumption.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: $1.63
If KAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 107% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.62, suggesting upside of 69.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NHC as Outperform (1) -

Updating its coal sector coverage, Credit Suisse lifts its Newcastle coal price 35% to US$364 a tonne, but retains its price forecasts for FY23 and FY24. The broker notes with spot and forward pricing well above estimates, material upside risk to its forecasts remains.

The broker remains positive on high grade Australian thermal coal, with demand remaining high amid the ongoing energy crisis and tight supply. Credit Suisse notes New Hope's Acland project's stage 3 is tracking well, and could add a further $1.50 per share to the broker's valuation if first production can be achieved by 2025.

The Outperform rating and target price of $4.90 are retained.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $1
If NHC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORG as Outperform (1) -

Retail churn among energy providers has spiked, Macquarie notes, with tier 1 retailers the likely beneficiary, but growth in customers adds value but not earnings as Origin Energy's hedge position is challenged with NSW coal prices not yet finalised.

Visibility in energy markets near term earnings outlook is low, the broker notes, albeit pains in electricity are reduced by gas.

Sustained high prices at APLNG delivers Origin the flexibility to grow in renewables/batteries without the balance sheet stress. Medium
term Macquarie expects earnings in energy markets will normalise as the energy transition progresses and wholesale pricing stabilises.

Outperform retained, target falls to $6.87 from $7.08 on forex adjustments.

Target price is $6.87 Current Price is $5.57 Difference: $1.3
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.31, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PTM as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse was slightly disappointed by Platinum Asset Management's outflows in June, which at -$0.3bn were the largest monthly outflows since February 2021, but is optimistic that flows could slow as fund performance improves. 

June outflows left funds under management -2% below the broker's expectations at $18.2bn, but Credit Suisse highlighted it was the first time in more than a year that the one-year fund performance was above benchmark. 

Improved International Fund performance was a positive for the broker, while a performance fee beat drove a 1% increase to the broker's earnings per share forecast. The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.75 from $1.80.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.75 Difference: $0
If PTM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.06, suggesting upside of 20.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PTM as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett notes overall performance improvement from Platinum Asset Management in the June quarter. The broker highlights flows did remain negative, leaving funds under management at $18.2bn at the end of the period. 

Outflows of -$700m in the quarter represented -3.6% of funds under management, and given ongoing pressure Ord Minnett has increased its outflow assumptions for FY23 and FY24.

The Hold rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.80 from $2.15.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.75 Difference: $0.05
If PTM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.06, suggesting upside of 20.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

South32 has entered into a binding agreement for the sale of four non-core royalties to Anglo Pacific Group and subsequently become a major Anglo shareholder at 16.9%.

The divestment provides a cash flow boost for South32, Macquarie notes, with potential upside retained through the shareholding mechanism.

Lower copper and coking coal prices have reversed earnings upgrade momentum for the company in the short term. However, commodity prices continue to drive earnings upgrade momentum over the longer term, the broker points out.

Outperform and $6.00 target retained.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: $2.45
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.60, suggesting upside of 60.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights the additional cashflow from South32's sale of a package of four non-core base metals royalties to Anglo Pacific Group will lend support to the company's capital returns program.

The consideration includes US$103m of cash and US$82m in the form of a 16.9% stake in Anglo Pacific Group shares, currently valued at US$373m.

The Overweight rating and $5.10 target price are unchanged. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: $1.55
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.60, suggesting upside of 60.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SPK as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Spark New Zealand's sale of a 70% stake in TowerCo was ahead of Credit Suisse's expectations at a 33.8x earnings multiple, leaving the company with net proceeds of NZ$900m. 

The broker notes there is potential for a NZ$0.24 per share special dividend to be paid, as the company will need to retain its net debt to earnings ratio to maintain its current credit rating. Credit Suisse expects the potential dividend to be announced in August.

The rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and the target price increases to $4.90 from $4.65.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.53 Difference: $0.37
If SPK meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.90, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SPK as Neutral (3) -

Spark New Zealand has announced the sale of a 70% interest in its TowerCo business and expects to receive net cash proceeds of NZ$900m at completion, subject to regulatory approval, Macquarie notes.

Manangement will release an updated capital management policy with its FY22 result, balancing shareholder return, funding growth and balance sheet strength.

Neutral and NZ$4.80 target retained.

Current Price is $4.53. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.90, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates STO as Add (1) -

Morgans increases its oil price forecasts across FY22-26 and lifts its long-term real price estimate to US$65/bbl from US$62/bbl. While there's thought to be long-term value in the sector, some caution is applied due to short-term volatility.

While Add-rated Santos remains a key sector pick, an increase in the broker's weighted average cost of capital (WACC) assumptions outweighs the increased oil price forecasts, and the target falls to $9.30 from $10.00.

Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $6.97 Difference: $2.33
If STO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.71, suggesting upside of 40.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUN as Underweight (5) -

While market share remains a risk for Suncorp Group, Morgan Stanley highlights a recent survey showing new business pricing points to more than 20% growth in Motor and 7% in Home. It's thought these rises may help pay for a higher FY23 CAT budget.

The Underweight rating and $10.25 target are maintained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $10.25 Current Price is $11.15 Difference: minus $0.9 (current price is over target).
If SUN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.54, suggesting upside of 21.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SZL as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett looks to further detail on Sezzle's path to profitability with the company's merger with Zip Co ((ZIP)) off the table.

Despite net transaction margin increasing to 2.2%, and the broker anticipating further growth, Ord Minnett believes a further -25% cut to staffing costs will be required to reach breakeven by the December quarter. 

The broker finds the aggressive approach necessary for the company to re-establish creditability in its long-term business model, and expects achieving earnings breakeven will go a long way in leaving the company well-placed to serve its customers and retailers. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $0.60 from $1.40.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.34
If SZL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 131% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TPG as Buy (1) -

TPG Telecom has received approval from the ACCC for its residential wholesale network to be functionally separated in early October, which Ord Minnett notes will allow the company to offer simpler pricing and faster speeds to more than 400,000 premises, making it a strong competitor. 

While to date, TPG Telecom's wholesale residential network has provided a limited contribution to earnings, the broker notes penetration growth and significant recurring revenue generation could drive valuation upside.

The Buy rating and target price of $7.50 are retained.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $5.90 Difference: $1.6
If TPG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.91, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VEA as Outperform (1) -

Viva Energy's reported first half earnings guidance of $614m is 29% ahead of consensus and an all-time record half since the IPO in 2018, Macquarie notes.

Management has nonetheless warned of a cautious outlook, given headwinds from “higher energy and opex", "rising crude & product premia” and “increases in fuel excise”.

Macquarie suggests it is pleasing to see recovery in expanded fuels categories and the refining up-cycle could drive meaningful upside to consensus. Outperform and $3.50 target retained.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.81 Difference: $0.69
If VEA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.24, suggesting upside of 18.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates VEA as Overweight (1) -

Following an update by Viva Energy on its 1H trading performance, Morgan Stanley sees upside risk to its own forecasts. It's thought  strong volume growth in commercial may have assisted an earnings (EBITDA) beat versus the broker's forecast.

As no earnings split was provided by management, the analyst also assumes a marginally better than expected refining performance. The Overweight rating and $3.30 target are unchanged. Industry View: Attractive.

Refining margins of US$19/bbl were delivered for the 1H versus Morgan Stanley's US$18/bbl estimate.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.81 Difference: $0.49
If VEA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.24, suggesting upside of 18.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VEA as Accumulate (2) -

A trading update from Viva Energy has provided first half earnings guidance of $614m, more than double earnings in the first half of 2021, and confirmed Ord Minnett's expectations that elevated regional refinery margins are driving increased contributions for the company from the Geelong refinery.

While the broker expects margins will stabilise over time, it anticipates constraints driving market tightness to remain in the near-term and likely drive further upside risk to forecasts.

The Accumulate rating is retained and the target price increases to $3.40 from $2.95.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.81 Difference: $0.59
If VEA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.24, suggesting upside of 18.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VEA as Buy (1) -

An operational update showed 1H earnings (EBITDA) for Viva Energy were greater than a 25% beat versus the forecasts of both UBS and consensus, largely due to higher Geelong refiner margin.

The broker lifts its FY22 EPS forecast by 29%, largely due to stronger realised refining margins in the 1H and raises its FY23-24
estimates by 3-7%. The analyst sees further upside to forecasts should refining margins remain at current levels. 

The target price rises to $3.15 from $3.00 and the Buy rating is unchanged.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.81 Difference: $0.34
If VEA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.24, suggesting upside of 18.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates VVA as Buy (1) -

While the easing of restrictions has been a positive for the small cap leisure stocks within Citi's coverage, the broker notes rising rates and costs of living are a real risk to medium-term demand for leisure-related activities.

Citi is anticipating Viva Leisure will be able to more than double earnings between FY21 and FY24, supported by roll out, acquisitions and franchise buy backs.

The broker upgrades FY22-24 net profit by $1-3m to reflect the company's recent guidance upgrade. The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.85 from $1.98.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.14 Difference: $0.71
If VVA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WDS as Add (1) -

Morgans increases its oil price forecasts across FY22-26 and lifts its long-term real price estimate to US$65/bbl from US$62/bbl. While there's thought to be long-term value in the sector, some caution is applied due to short-term volatility.

Due to its large oil price sensitivity, Woodside Energy is a key beneficiary of the broker's new forecasts, while the merger with BHP Group's ((BHP)) Petroleum division has also aided valuation.

The target price jumps to $36.00 from $32.90 despite an increase in the broker's weighted average cost of capital (WACC) assumptions. The Add rating is unchanged and the company remains a key pick in the sector.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $31.00 Difference: $5
If WDS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.90, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WHC as Outperform (1) -

Updating its coal sector coverage, Credit Suisse lifts its Newcastle coal price 35% to US$364 a tonne, but retains its price forecasts for FY23 and FY24. The broker notes with spot and forward pricing well above estimates, material upside risk to its forecasts remains.

The broker remains positive on high grade Australian thermal coal, with demand remaining high amid the ongoing energy crisis and tight supply. While weather appears to be impacting on Whitehaven Coal's full year sales, Credit Suisse expects this will be immaterial given spot pricing. 

Whitehaven Coal remains the broker's sector pick. The Outperform rating and target price of $7.30 are retained.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $5.16 Difference: $2.14
If WHC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.37, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates Z1P as Sell (5) -

Zip Co will pay an -$11m break fee to terminate the proposed acquisition of Sezzle Inc ((SZL)). In UBS's opinion, considerable uncertainty remains and the Sell rating and $0.45 target price are unchanged.

The broker's base case continues to assume losses over the next three years though near term cash burn should improve without Sezzle. It's thought Zip Co needs to be more transparent and regular in updating the market on its path to profitability.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: minus $0.76 (current price is over target).
If Z1P meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.15, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources