Australian Broker Call

Shaw and Partners rates 3DA as Buy, High Risk (1) -

While credit risk clouds the upside, according to Shaw and Partners, a new five-year, $35m, exclusive supply deal positions Amaero as the sole provider of C103 (niobium alloy) and other refractory powders to Velo3D.

The analyst explains Velo3D’s balance-sheet fragility undermines demand visibility. The company is a leading US-based metal additive manufacturing technology company. 

The transaction will potentially integrate proprietary print parameters into every Sapphire printer and grants exposure to Tier-1 space and defence customers, highlights the broker.

Shaw and Partners continues to rate the stock Buy, High Risk with an unchanged 60c target price.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.315
If 3DA meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 111% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating on Aristocrat Leisure prior to 1H results on May 14, and lowers the target price to $73.20 from $75.00. Industry View: In-Line.

The broker expects 1H25 profit (NPATA) growth of 2.4%, skewed toward a stronger second half, and sees key focus areas as US growth, gaming margins amid tariff concerns.

The analysts will also be looking for commentary on M&A potential and progress toward the US$1bn interactive revenue goal.

The company has been linked to a potential acquisition of Interblock, a dominant US electronic table games manufacturer, which Morgan Stanley sees as a strategic fit with earnings accretion potential.

Target price is $73.20 Current Price is $66.71 Difference: $6.49
If ALL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $76.67, suggesting upside of 14.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates APE as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter highlights Eagers Automotive's latest presentation points to an unchanged 2025 outlook, with a $1bn increase in turnover still expected and flat margins.

The broker estimates this equates to $12.2bn FY25 revenue and an underlying profit of around $400m. The company flagged it will include BYD retail JV in the core business, whereas it was previously disclosed separately.

The analyst is forecasting a slightly higher rise in FY25 revenue to $12.25bn, but notes its profit forecast is skewed to 2H. As a result, there's a risk of 1H result falling short of its expectations.

Hold. Target rises to $17.50 from $15.25 as the broker lifted the multiples used in the valuation.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $19.42 Difference: minus $1.92 (current price is over target).
If APE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.88, suggesting downside of -16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ARB as Neutral (3) -

Citi observes the 1Q25 results for Fox, suggesting a more upbeat US aftermarket, which augurs well for ARB Corp compared to the OEM segment.

The analyst notes a large proportion of the company's products are manufactured in Thailand and Australia, but a notable portion sold into the US retail channel is sourced from China.

Citi cautions that some OEM models, like the Tacoma, in which ARB is invested, are manufactured outside of the US and could be more challenged in a tariff environment. This may force management to redirect engineering work into locally produced models, the analyst explains.

A Neutral rating and $39.54 target price are maintained.

Target price is $39.54 Current Price is $30.97 Difference: $8.57
If ARB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $40.95, suggesting upside of 29.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AVH as Downgrade to Speculative Buy from Add (1) -

Morgans lowers its target for Avita Medical to $3.76 from $4.36 and downgrades to Speculative Buy from Add, citing heightened balance sheet risk.

Although first quarter revenue grew by 67% year-on-year to US$18.5m, it was flat quarter-on-quarter and missed the broker's expectations around cash burn and progression toward breakeven.

Operating expenses were higher than forecast at -US$27.5m, and the cash balance of US$25.8m leaves less than two quarters of runway, note the analysts, raising concerns about a potential capital injection.

Cost-saving measures and new product launches are expected to support a path to breakeven by the end of 3Q25, suggests the broker, assuming 13% quarterly sales growth and a reduced cost base.

Despite recent challenges, the broker highlights the company's product pipeline and retains a positive long-term view.

Current Price is $2.50. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AVL as Buy, High Risk (1) -

In a material improvement on initial estimates, notes Shaw and Partners, management at Australian Vanadium has confirmed a Levelised Cost of Storage (LCOS). The cost is $214/MWh over eight hours of storage for a Project Lumina Battery Energy Storage System.

The broker highlights this is cheaper than the LCOS of similar capacity lithium-ion battery energy storage systems (BESS) currently in the market.

The Buy, High Risk rating and 6c target are maintained.

Target price is $0.06 Current Price is $0.01 Difference: $0.049
If AVL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 445% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BRG as Neutral (3) -

Citi emphasises the competition from the likes of Shark Ninja following the company's 1Q25 results, particularly in products in the food preparation segment other than coffee for Breville Group.

Shark Ninja reported a strong result, and the share market response suggests to the analyst that the market may be becoming more comfortable with companies meeting supply chain challenges from tariffs, which should bode well for Breville, Citi believes.

The analyst is also keeping a watchful eye on Shark Ninja's expansion into the coffee segment, with the competitor's global espresso business seemingly outperforming other products.

The Ninja Luxe Cafe is the number one espresso maker in the US market, despite only being sold for six months. A price impact did not dent sales either.

Neutral rating. Target price $38.20.

Target price is $38.20 Current Price is $29.58 Difference: $8.62
If BRG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.64, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates C79 as Buy, High Risk (1) -

In a significant milestone, according to Shaw and Partners, management at Chrysos has signed a master services agreement (MSA) with Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and contracted an initial unit for its Ahafo complex mine in Ghana.

While adoption takes time, the broker believes this transaction demonstrates PhotonAssay is the future.

Chrysos now has eight of the world’s top 15 gold miners using its technology for at least one of their projects, highlight the analysts.

Shaw and Partners reiterates its Buy, High Risk rating and $6.80 target.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $4.87 Difference: $1.93
If C79 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.74, suggesting upside of 16.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CHN as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes Chalice Mining's announcement of improvements to the proposed flowsheet at its Gonneville PGE-Nickel, Copper, and Cobalt project, which builds on the breakthrough announced in February.

Recoveries are now expected to increase by 4-7% across palladium, nickel and copper concentrate products, and point to a material improvement in project margins.

The company is targeting a pre-feasibility study in the final quarter of 2025. The broker sees potential for a 7-10% increase to its valuation, but has not applied it to the model yet.

Speculative Buy. Target unchanged at $5.75.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $1.13 Difference: $4.62
If CHN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 409% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.79, suggesting upside of 142.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CSL as Buy (1) -

UBS's May 2025 A&NZ Healthcare Crowding Monitor shows investor positioning remains net long across the sector, though less so than the prior month.

The broker explains crowding can signal risk from similar investor behaviour during market events, though it does not inherently imply poor performance.

Crowding scores are calculated by UBS using ownership, stock loan, flow, and brokerage data, and provide insights into behavioural positioning risk across ANZ healthcare equities.

CSL remains the most long-crowded stock.

CSL is Buy rated with an unchanged target price of $310.

Target price is $310.00 Current Price is $239.31 Difference: $70.69
If CSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $327.51, suggesting upside of 39.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CVL as Buy (1) -

Civmec's 3Q25 update pointed to lower activity in Q3, which is expected to continue in Q4 as key contracts are delayed.

Bell Potter cuts FY25 revenue forecast by -4% and EBITDA forecast by -1% following the company's update. The broker retains a positive outlook given growth in the company's orderbook, but is cautious about the near term.

FY26 and FY27 revenue forecasts were also downgraded, resulting in cuts to EPS forecasts.

Buy. Target trimmed to $1.20 from $1.40.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.99 Difference: $0.215
If CVL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CVL as Hold (3) -

Civmec's 3Qcame in slightly below Morgans' expectations, though earnings (EBITDA margin rose to 12.1%) were supported by effective cost control.

Management has provided "soft" guidance, according to the broker, expecting the Q4 to be similar to Q3 which implies FY25 revenue of $818m and profit (NPAT) of $42.5m.

The Landing Craft Heavy (LCH) contract remains a key potential catalyst, suggests the analyst, with Civmec part of a joint venture bid for a program estimated to be worth $3.2bn. Award timing is uncertain but could occur later in 2025, notes the broker.

Although the stock trades on undemanding multiples and offers an attractive dividend yield, Morgans sees limited near-term catalysts outside the LCH contract and maintains its Hold rating with a $1.10 target.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.99 Difference: $0.115
If CVL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CYL as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Catalyst Metals acquired Old Highway gold project from Sandfire Resources ((SFR)) for -$32.5m, and Bell Potter reckons it is a logical and value-accretive deal.

The project is 40km from the company Plutonic gold operation, with a resource of 2.1Mt at 3g/t containing 206koz of gold.

The company announced details for the Zone 400 deposit at the project, and the broker has updated the model with a forecast of 1H27 commencement.

The broker expects the project will lift the company's production to 200kozpa over a 10-year life from 170kozpa. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold. Target rises to $7.05 from $6.30.

Target price is $7.05 Current Price is $6.08 Difference: $0.97
If CYL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GMG as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS upgrades Goodman Group to Buy from Neutral, with a slightly lower target price of $36 from $36.80, due to increased confidence around the data centre funding outlook, reduced market expectations, and around 10% medium-term operating EPS growth, which UBS states is "unique" for a REIT.

The analyst explains the market was too quick to discount the group's data centre pipeline of 5GW at $100bn without accounting for funding constraints, so the $4bn equity raising came as a surprise, the broker believes.

UBS estimates over $10bn in capital will be needed by FY29 to commence 5GW without joint venture agreements of circa $6bn. The latter can be funded via retained earnings and asset sales.

The analyst has an upside target price case of $44.70, reflecting data centre pipeline growth above 5GW due to tailwinds from AI/cloud demand growth.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $31.35 Difference: $4.65
If GMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.44, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GQG as Outperform (1) -

GQG Partners reported April funds under management, with net flows rising by US$1.4bn, resulting in 1H25 year-to-date flows reaching US$6bn. Macquarie forecasts around US$7.5bn in net inflows for 1H25.

Funds under management in April rose 1% on the prior month, though the portfolios under-performed over the period.

The broker tweaks EPS estimates, lifting FY25 by 3.3% and FY26 by 5.1%. No change to Outperform rating and $2.90 target price.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: $0.64
If GQG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.87, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GQG as Buy (1) -

Following a funds under management (FUM) update by GQG Partners, UBS retains a Buy rating and lifts its target price to $2.75 from $2.60.

April fund under management rose by 1.1% to $163.6bn, driven by $1.4bn of net inflows, well ahead of the broker's expectations, particularly from institutional investors in Global and US equity strategies.

Despite a more defensive portfolio stance and underperformance relative to a rising equity market, run-rate profitability is tracking ahead, highlights UBS.

The board lifted the dividend payout ratio to 93.3% and maintained the level of quarterly dividend at US3.78 cents.

UBS expects continued organic growth and improved flow visibility despite geopolitical noise, supported by a low valuation, strong free cash flow yield, and a compelling risk/reward profile.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: $0.49
If GQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.87, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IMD as Neutral (3) -

Citi believes Imdex will finish FY25 on a subdued note, with no evidence of an uplift in activity in the 3Q results.

Typically, 4Q is stronger for the company, generating growth of 10–15% on 3Q, though exploration looks set to come in at the lower end of the broker's forecast range.

Directional core drilling has been the standout for the company, while instrumentation volume and drilling fluids have been below expectations.

Citi believes there are downside risks to FY26 consensus expectations, with industry feedback confirming no notable uplift until after 2025, excluding Orica ((ORI)).

Neutral rated. Target price moves to $2.90 from $2.85.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: $0.12
If IMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.89, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LNW as Add (1) -

Light & Wonder's 1Q25 result came in slightly below Morgans' expectations, with adjusted earnings (EBITDA) up by 11% to US$311m, driven by margin expansion across all segments.

Despite macro uncertainty and tariff concerns, the broker highlights management re-iterated its FY25 adjusted earnings target of US$1.4bn and profit (NPATA) guidance of US$565-635m.

Morgans views recent share price weakness as a compelling entry point, with the Investor Day on 20 May and a potential ASX primary listing seen as as key catalysts.

Morgans retains an Add rating on Light & Wonder with a $193 target price.

Target price is $220.00 Current Price is $126.35 Difference: $93.65
If LNW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $197.20, suggesting upside of 49.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MAC as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

UBS has initiated coverage of MAC Copper with a Buy rating and target price of $21.

The broker's view on the company is based on its positive outlook for copper and potential for increasing production and Cobar mine life extension. UBS is a long-term copper bull, noting 6mt of new supply is required within 10 years and a US$5/lb copper price is needed to encourage that supply.

The analyst believes the company can achieve the targeted 50ktpa production by 2026 (FY24 was 41.1kt) at the Cobar mine, assisted by production start at Merrin mine. The company has not included Merrin in guidance yet, and the broker estimates production would reach 7.5ktpa..

The broker also sees potential for reserve extension at Cobar, resulting in mine life extension to 2028 from 2036. A key positive is the existing excess infrastructure capacity.

Organic growth option is expected to be the company's preference even though the IPO pitch was focused on M&A.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $14.71 Difference: $6.29
If MAC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MQG as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

On the back of Macquarie Group's FY25 earnings report, Citi upgrades the stock to Neutral from Sell. The target price is raised to $200 from $177.

The group reported net profit in line with both the broker’s and consensus estimate, and with such a substantial shift in global economic conditions post the March year-end, the focus was always on guidance.

Citi believes the highest risks for earnings in the coming year lie in MAM net operating offset income, commodities, and investment-related income from MacCap.

Commentary suggests there is possible upside from public market gains on sales, and commodities are coming off an “average” year. MacCap is expected to become more exposed to private credit.

The broker highlights management has multiple levers to increase return on equity, including a share buyback of around $1bn, exiting green assets, and reinvesting circa $3bn of gross proceeds from public markets.

Reflecting reduced revenues from MAM and MacCap, the analyst lowers FY25/FY26 earnings assumptions by around -4%.

Target price is $200.00 Current Price is $203.31 Difference: minus $3.31 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $211.58, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Equal-weight (3) -

Following FY25 results for Macquarie Group, Morgan Stanley retains an Equal-weight rating and raises its target price to $199 from $191. Industry View: In-Line.

FY25 profit grew 5% year-on-year and aligned with estimates by the broker and consensus, while the final dividend beat forecasts by 1%.

The broker forecasts 5.5% net profit growth in FY26, driven by operating leverage in Banking and Financial Services (BFS), and expects stronger FY27 growth of 15%, led by a rebound in Macquarie Capital.

The recent sale of the North American and EU public markets businesses is expected to add circa $1bn in capital and modestly lift FY26 earnings, although it trims FY27 contributions, note the analysts.

The broker believes upside will depend on execution and a capital markets recovery.

Target price is $199.00 Current Price is $203.31 Difference: minus $4.31 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $211.58, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MQG as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Morgans assesses Macquarie Group's FY25 net profit as largely in-line, with net profit 1% ahead of consensus. The final ordinary dividend of $3.90/share was above the broker's forecast of $3.80.

Banking and Financial services result was the highlight, benefiting from loan portfolio and deposit growth. The broker notes the outlook for this segment is slightly more positive.

Group operating expenses were well managed, but commodities and global market business saw a softer outcome on lower trading income and lower risk management.

The broker lifted the net operating income forecasts for FY26-27, but also raised other costs estimates, resulting in a -2.4% decline to FY26 cash earnings and a -3.1% cut to FY27. 

EPS forecasts for FY26-27 cut while dividend forecasts raised. Rating upgraded to Add from Hold.

Target price rises to $223.89 from $218.57.

Target price is $223.89 Current Price is $203.31 Difference: $20.58
If MQG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $211.58, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MQG as Accumulate (2) -

Macquarie Group's FY25 results met Ord Minnett's expectations. The broker notes a strong contribution from Macquarie Asset Management, driven by elevated performance fees and successful asset sales.

Banking and Financial Services also performed strongly, benefiting from lower staff costs and balance sheet growth, explains the analyst.

Commodities and Global Markets underperformed due to lower client hedging and delays in US energy contract earnings, observes Ord Minnett. Macquarie Capital also missed estimates amid weaker investment returns.

Despite frequent guidance downgrades in recent updates, management remains upbeat on divisional outlooks, and the broker expects consensus FY26 forecasts to remain steady.

Ord Minnett highlights Macquarie’s long-term appeal given its ability to capitalise on global megatrends such as digitisation, infrastructure demand, and the energy transition. However, it's noted short-term earnings remain vulnerable to market volatility.

Accumulate rating and $210 target unchanged.

Target price is $210.00 Current Price is $203.31 Difference: $6.69
If MQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $211.58, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MQG as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes Macquarie Group reported an in-line result, with the FY25 net profit after tax slightly better by 40bps.

Earnings were boosted by asset sales within MAM and a reduced tax rate of around 23% in 2H25, despite increased credit impairment charges.

The analyst believes it is challenging to forecast the group's earnings due to uncertainty around tariffs, global trade, and market conditions, but raises the FY26 earnings estimate by 4.1%.

For FY28, the earnings forecast is lowered by -1.6%, notably within MAM, which is undergoing changes in the US.

Neutral rating retained, with the target price lowered to $225 from $235.

Target price is $225.00 Current Price is $203.31 Difference: $21.69
If MQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $211.58, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NWS as Overweight (1) -

News Corp's third quarter result beat Morgan Stanley's expectations, with revenue up by 1% and adjusted earnings (EBITDA) up by 12% year-on-year to US$290m.

The result was driven by strong performances from Dow Jones, REA Group ((REA)), Books, and cost savings in News Media, highlights the broker.

Dow Jones delivered earnings of US$132m, up by 12%, led by solid growth in Risk & Compliance and Dow Jones Energy, note the analysts, while Digital Real Estate earnings rose by 20% to US$121m, supported by REA Group's strength.

Books earnings were up by 3%, with digital revenue comprising about 25% of the mix.

Following the Foxtel sale, News Corp is now in a net cash position for the first time in years and Morgan Stanley believes this opens options for capital returns, business reinvestment, or M&A.

The broker continues to highlight a -30% valuation discount relative to its sum-of-the-parts estimate and believes this gap can close as earnings momentum continues.

Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating with a US$37 target price. Industry View: Attractive.

Current Price is $53.13. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $65.50, suggesting upside of 26.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NWS as Buy (1) -

UBS retains a Buy rating on News Corp and raises the target price to $70.00 from $68.00 following a "strong" third quarter result. 

Earnings, ex-Foxtel, rose by 12% year-on-year to US$290m, beating consensus by around 8%, driven particularly by Dow Jones and News Media segments, explain the analysts.

Dow Jones delivered 12% EBITDA growth and 130bps of margin expansion, supported by continued mix shift toward higher-margin business units like Risk & Compliance and Energy, highlights the broker.

Free cash flow (ex-Foxtel) rose by 11%, moving News Corp into a net cash position of US$130m, which UBS believes enhances scope for EPS-accretive M&A or buybacks.

UBS forecasts FY25 EBITDA of US$1.4bn, up by 14%, and lifts FY25–27 EPS forecasts by 1%. A three-year EPS CAGR of 23% is projected, underpinned by growth at Dow Jones, REA Group, and benefits from debt reduction.

The broker suggests the valuation remains compelling, highlighting an ongoing sum-of-the-parts valuation gap. The earnings trajectory alone is considered supportive of upside.

Target price is $70.00 Current Price is $53.13 Difference: $16.87
If NWS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $65.50, suggesting upside of 26.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PNV as Speculative Buy (1) -

In a trading update for the nine-month period to March, PolyNovo revealed total sales were up 31.1% y/y to $84.4m. Based on this, Morgans' is confident its FY25 forecast of $123.1m will be met.

The broker estimates the company will need to achieve sales of $38.7m in 4Q vs $30.3m in 3Q. No changes to forecasts.

The analyst notes discussions with surgeons highlighted the effectiveness of the company's burns and trauma products and believes it could achieve 20% annual revenue growth in the next three years.

Speculative Buy. Target price $1.69. 

Target price is $1.69 Current Price is $1.47 Difference: $0.225
If PNV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.16, suggesting upside of 48.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates QBE as Hold (3) -

QBE Insurance's 1Q25 update showed premium rates on renewals rose 3.4% but at slower rate vs 3.9% in Q42024, and 6.9% a year earlier. Bell Potter's assessment is the insurer is still growing profitably despite the slowing rate environment.

The insurer retained its outlook for 92.5% combined operating ratio (COR) for FY25, and the broker has the same forecast but highlights it as a risk, given it requires 96% COR in the US.

Tariff-related inflation in the US and further weakening in the USD are headwinds.

Hold. Target rises to $21.00 from $19.20 on upward revisions to forecasts as the broker incorporated spot exchange rate in the model.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $22.59 Difference: minus $1.59 (current price is over target).
If QBE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $23.69, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QBE as Buy (1) -

QBE Insurance's 1Q25 trading update was as Citi expected and had been previously previewed by the broker.

Management confirmed they are on track to meet FY25 core operating ratio guidance of around 92.5%, and as anticipated, gross written premiums were robust, rising 7% on a year earlier or 8% on a constant currency basis.

Catastrophe costs of circa -US$420m for the four months to April are sitting under the 1H25 allowance of US$549m, the broker explains, with the inferred May/June allowance at around US$129m, which is viewed by Citi as achievable.

1Q25 premium growth hit 8%, with renewal rates remaining robust and achieving an average of 3.4%, down from 6.9% in 1Q24.

Buy rating. Target price $23.30. The broker's EPS forecasts are unchanged.

Target price is $23.30 Current Price is $22.59 Difference: $0.71
If QBE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.69, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QBE as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating on QBE Insurance following a modestly better-than-expected first quarter.

Gross written premium (GWP) rose by 7% year-on-year (8% in constant currency), tracking ahead of the broker’s 1H25 forecast of 4.5%, driven by volume growth helping offset softer pricing.

Investment income of US$410m year-to-date was in line with the analysts' expectations, supported by a fixed income yield of 4.1%, slightly ahead of forecasts. Fund under management also exceeded expectations at US$31.6bn.

Claims from catastrophes totaled -US$420m by April, below the budgeted US$549m, observes the broker, providing confidence in the group's 1H25 catastrophe allowance.

Management reaffirmed FY25 guidance of mid-single digit GWP growth and a combined operating ratio of approximately 92.5%.

Overweight. Target $24.60. industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $24.60 Current Price is $22.59 Difference: $2.01
If QBE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.69, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QBE as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating on QBE Insurance and raises the target price to $25.50 from $24.50 following a "solid" March-quarter update. Management reiterated 2025 guidance after quarterly volume growth offset softer premium rate increases.

Premium rate growth slowed to 3.4% from 6.9% a year earlier, observes the broker, with moderation evident across all segments, though a 9% increase in international volumes more than compensated.

Catastrophe claims totaled -US$420m in the first four months, including -US$200m from Los Angeles fires, tracking within the first-half allowance of US$549m, assures the analyst.

Investment performance exceeded forecasts, with a 4.3% fixed-income yield, versus 4.1% expected by Ord Minnett, and a 5.8% yield on risk assets. Funds under management rose by 3.3% from December.

The broker upgrades its EPS forecasts by 3.0% for FY25 and 3.3% for FY26-27, reflecting stronger gross written premiums (GWP), investment income, and lower interest charges from capital note restructuring.

Despite recognising value, the broker remains cautious due to QBE’s macro exposure, reliance on international pricing, and optimistic assumptions around catastrophe costs and rate stability. 

Target price is $25.50 Current Price is $22.59 Difference: $2.91
If QBE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.69, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates QBE as Buy (1) -

UBS notes QBE Insurance made a strong start to FY25 with a 9% increase in gross written premium (GWP) growth on a constant currency basis. GWP growth was highest in international business at 11%, followed by North America at 10% (excluding crop).

Premium rate, however, slowed sequentially to 3.4% in 1Q from 3.9%, with softening seen mainly in RI/Lloyds.

The company reaffirmed FY25 GWP growth guidance of 5% and combined operation ratio expectation of 92.5%.

The broker lifted the FY25 GWP growth forecast to 4.9%, resulting in a 1.2% increase to the GWP estimate. This, together with stronger investment income and lower debt cost, pushed up the EPS forecast for FY25 by 1.2% and FY26 by 1.9%.

Buy. Target rises to $24.65 from $24.50.

Target price is $24.65 Current Price is $22.59 Difference: $2.06
If QBE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.69, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates REA as Buy (1) -

Having returned from a conference call with management at REA Group following today's Q3 update, Citi analysts report they see potential for minor consensus earnings downgrades.

The analysts also would not be surprised if the stock trades down in the near term, given CoStar's acquisition of competitor Domain Holdings Australia ((DHG)) is going ahead.

Citi itself does not expect a material impact on REA's position over the next 1–3 years. Marketing schedules are expected to expand initially if CoStar is successful in growing Domain's audience.

The take-up for REA's Pro Subscriptions is robust, but the broker suggests it remains too soon to set Buy Yield expectations for FY26, while the group is seeing a pick-up in activity post the Easter holidays and election.

Buy rating. Target price $275.

Target price is $275.00 Current Price is $244.97 Difference: $30.03
If REA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $269.14, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates REA as Neutral (3) -

REA Group generated growth of 12% on a year earlier to $199m for earnings (EBITDA) in 3Q25, with year-to-date growth around 19% compared to Macquarie's estimate of 20%.

Macquarie is forecasting a 20%-plus compound average growth rate in EPS out to FY27 and has tweaked EPS estimates slightly higher post-quarterly update.

The broker finds it hard to justify a valuation re-rating from current levels at circa 50x for the next 12-month earnings.

The jury is out regarding the possible impact of CoStar's takeover of Domain Holdings ((DHG)).

Macquarie points to three outcomes: the status quo remains; additional investment in products and agents to increase competitiveness; and/or increasing listing costs to obtain greater market share.

Neutral rated. Target price slips to $265 from $270.

Target price is $265.00 Current Price is $244.97 Difference: $20.03
If REA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $269.14, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates REA as Overweight (1) -

REA Group's third quarter result was broadly in line with Morgan Stanley's forecasts, with revenue up by 12% to $374m and earnings (EBITDA) also up by 12% to $199m, slightly below the broker’s estimate.

Yield growth of 15% in the quarter beat the analysts' forecast of 13%, reaffirming to the broker REA’s strong pricing power, which is expected to drive total yield growth of 13-15% for FY25.

Listings were flat year-on-year in the quarter, but management expects full year growth of 1-2% despite tough comps in April.

While CoStar’s entry introduces a competitive risk, Morgan Stanley believes the group can continue to deliver double-digit pricing growth.

The Overweight rating and target of $280 are maintained. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $280.00 Current Price is $244.97 Difference: $35.03
If REA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $269.14, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates REA as Hold (3) -

The highlight of REA Group's 3Q25 update was strong yield growth, Morgans notes, with revenue in the domestic buy listing benefiting from a 15% yield increase from premium listings and add-ons. National new buy listings were flat but revenue rose 11% y/y.

Topline growth in India was another key feature, with revenue up 28% y/y. 

The broker slightly revised down forecasts for FY25-27 EPS by -0.4% after trimming 2H25 new listing volume estimate to -2% from 1%.

Hold. Target rises to $250 from $248 on timing impact of DCF valuation.

Target price is $250.00 Current Price is $244.97 Difference: $5.03
If REA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $269.14, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates REA as Buy (1) -

UBS retains a Buy rating on REA Group and lowers the target price to $290 from $294, following further analysis of last Friday's 3Q results.

The broker's first impressions on the day of release follow.

Following a first read through of today's market update, UBS analysts find REA Group's 3Q25 result rather mixed, with revenue slightly ahead of forecasts, but higher-than-expected operating costs providing negative offset.

April listing volumes fell -11% year-on-year, including -16% declines in both Sydney and Melbourne, though FY25 guidance for 1–2% listing growth and 13–15% yield improvement remains unchanged.

UBS sees potential upside to consensus from pricing increases and revenue deferral, but also flags downside risk from elevated opex.

Forecast EPS for 2025 remains at 425c, while estimates for 2026 and 2027 are 511c and 588c respectively; all are slightly below consensus.

Target price is $290.00 Current Price is $244.97 Difference: $45.03
If REA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $269.14, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RMD as Buy (1) -

UBS's May 2025 A&NZ Healthcare Crowding Monitor shows investor positioning remains net long across the sector, though less so than the prior month.

The broker explains crowding can signal risk from similar investor behaviour during market events, though it does not inherently imply poor performance.

Crowding scores are calculated by UBS using ownership, stock loan, flow, and brokerage data, and provide insights into behavioural positioning risk across ANZ healthcare equities.

Notably, ResMed saw the largest shift, becoming less crowded despite a solid 3Q result and continued US tariff exemption under the Nairobi Protocol, observes the broker.

Buy. Target US$285.

Current Price is $38.19. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $45.42, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TCL as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes the departure of -300 people from Transurban Group, representing around -7% of the total staff including contractors (circa 4,100) and around -14% of the total reported workforce (circa 2,100).

The company expects cost savings of $50m, which the analyst estimates at -5% of total expenses.

Citi believes the move reflects ongoing cost controls initiated in 1H25, which are expected to support FY26 cash flow and dividend.

The analyst increases DPS forecasts by 1% for FY26 and 1.5% for FY27.

Neutral rating retained pending the NSW toll review results. Target price rises to $14.30 from $14.

Target price is $14.30 Current Price is $14.36 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.66, suggesting downside of -4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VGL as Neutral (3) -

UBS is looking ahead to the potential for revenue upside from payments as Vista International's cloud migration progresses. The broker has considered three scenarios that could lift revenue significantly from FY30.

The analyst expects management to provide an update on payments strategy at the 1H25 result in August or investor day in 2H25. 

For now, the broker is forecasting a weaker contribution from cinema due to slower recovery in US box office, and lower uptake in the cloud business.

FY25-27 EBITDA estimates cut by -1%, putting it in line with consensus for FY25 but below consensus for FY26-27.

Neutral. Target price N$3.90.

Current Price is $3.28. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.10, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates XRO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie previews Xero's upcoming 1H25 earnings report, stating the US growth story is "real," with the challenging backdrop giving way to the company achieving more traction in this market due to new management strategy, better products, and tailwinds from industry regulation.

Channel checks in the US have shown, according to the broker, that Xero's offering is becoming a "viable" competitor to Intuit, with basic plans around 44% cheaper in the US.

Intuit currently holds a circa 70% market share of the estimated 33m small- to medium-sized business market.

Macquarie believes management is making data-driven decisions that will result in improved allocation of capital, pointing to increased reinvestment for growth likely to be included in FY26 guidance.

Outperform rating and $191.90 target price retained.

Target price is $191.90 Current Price is $172.41 Difference: $19.49
If XRO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $196.15, suggesting upside of 14.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources