Australian Broker Call

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June 26, 2023

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
CMM - Capricorn Metals Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Macquarie
CMW - Cromwell Property Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate Ord Minnett
HLO - Helloworld Travel Upgrade to Accumulate from Lighten Ord Minnett
LOV - Lovisa Holdings Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold Ord Minnett
MND - Monadelphous Group Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold Ord Minnett
NHC - New Hope Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral Macquarie
29M  29METALS LIMITED

Copper

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Overnight Price: $0.83

Macquarie rates 29M as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie updates earnings forecasts to incorporate its latest commodity price outlook. Short-term price forecasts have been downgraded, particularly for bulks and base metals, notably zinc.

Macquarie reduces the target price of 29Metals to $0.90 from $1.00, driven by short and medium-term zinc price reductions that are offset by increased copper and gold prices as well as a lower Australian dollar forecast. Neutral maintained.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.83 Difference: $0.075
If 29M meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.91, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 29.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -23.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 21.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -13.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ANN  ANSELL LIMITED

Commercial Services & Supplies

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Overnight Price: $25.89

Ord Minnett rates ANN as Accumulate (2) -

Shares of Ansell continue to trade at a discount to Ord Minnett's $30 target price. It's felt the market is too pessimistic on margin pressures which the analyst expects will continue to ease.

Management is still guiding to sequential group margin improvement in the 2H of FY23, particularly in the Industrial segment after recent product price rises.

The broker expects the group gross margin will bounce back to 39% by FY24 from 37% in the 1H of FY23. Structural margin expansion is expected over the longer-term via better utilisation of newer manufacturing facilities and an improved sales mix to higher margin products.

The Accumulate rating and $30 target are unchanged.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $25.89 Difference: $4.11
If ANN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.93, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 108.87 cents and EPS of 256.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 167.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 124.31 cents and EPS of 277.74 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 184.9, implying annual growth of 10.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 76.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AZS  AZURE MINERALS LIMITED

Mining

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Overnight Price: $1.35

Bell Potter rates AZS as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter initiates coverage on Azure Minerals with a Speculative Buy rating and $2 target. The company has identified more than 700 individual outcropping pegmatites at the Andover project.

Initial drill testing returned broad intersections in the first target with the potential for economic grade lithium mineralisation.

The broker believes the success to date signals Tier-1 lithium mine potential and there is a chance exploration will delineate a large lithium resource over the next year which could support a strategically significant spodumene concentrate business.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.35 Difference: $0.655
If AZS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 51.73.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 149.44.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP  BHP GROUP LIMITED

Bulks

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Overnight Price: $44.60

Citi rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

Citi reviews its cost and production assumptions ahead of BHP Group's quarterly production report on July 20. Downgrades to copper and iron ore have produced FY23 and FY24 EBITDA by -2% and -4%, respectively.

Adjustments to longer-dated price assumptions mean the target is increased to $44 from $43 while a Neutral rating is maintained.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $44.60 Difference: minus $0.6 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $44.48, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 236.15 cents and EPS of 399.53 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 430.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 283.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 175.26 cents and EPS of 350.51 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 420.7, implying annual growth of -2.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 264.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie updates earnings forecasts to incorporate its latest commodity price outlook. Short-term price forecasts have been downgraded, particularly for bulks and base metals, notably zinc.

The broker downgrades near-term earnings by -10-20% for the large cap miners that are exposed to lower iron ore prices. Macquarie continues to prefer BHP Group in this segment, as it has a strong balance sheet and multiple organic growth opportunities.

Outperform maintained. Target is reduced to $49 from $52.

Target price is $49.00 Current Price is $44.60 Difference: $4.4
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.48, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 302.99 cents and EPS of 414.67 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 430.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 283.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 297.04 cents and EPS of 395.81 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 420.7, implying annual growth of -2.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 264.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CHN  CHALICE MINING LIMITED

Industrial Metals

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Overnight Price: $6.33

Macquarie rates CHN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie updates earnings forecasts to incorporate its latest commodity price outlook. Short-term price forecasts have been downgraded, particularly for bulks and base metals, notably zinc.

Among base metal producers, Chalice Mining's target is reduced to $9.20 from $9.60 as a result of cobalt price reductions from 2028 onwards. Outperform rating maintained.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $6.33 Difference: $2.87
If CHN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.63, suggesting upside of 35.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 16.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 38.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -9.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 60.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -6.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CMM  CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $4.05

Macquarie rates CMM as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie updates earnings forecasts to incorporate its latest commodity price outlook. Short-term price forecasts have been downgraded, particularly for bulks and base metals, notably zinc. Gold price forecasts are increased by 4% in 2024.

Amid recent share price weakness Capricorn Metals is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and the $4.80 target is retained.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.05 Difference: $0.75
If CMM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 23.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.02.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 22.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.84.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CMW  CROMWELL PROPERTY GROUP

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $0.50

Ord Minnett rates CMW as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Ord Minnett upgrades its rating for Cromwell Property to Bu from Accumulate on valuation after a recent share price retracement.

No changes are made to the broker's forecasts and the 90c target is unchanged.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: $0.4
If CMW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 80% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.50 cents and EPS of 5.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.47.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.60 cents and EPS of 4.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.64.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COH  COCHLEAR LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices

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Overnight Price: $227.96

Macquarie rates COH as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie has surveyed 11 US-based audiologists and, on average, they indicated that new cochlear implant patient numbers were 24% ahead of pre-pandemic levels. This implies a growth rate in 6%.

Cochlear received the highest rating in relation to its offering and was also considered the best for meeting key characteristics relevant to adult/paediatric patients. Yet the overall rating for Advanced Bionics continued to improve.

While recognising the strength of the brand, the broker assesses growth is constrained by lack of awareness of implants. Valuation is also considered elevated and an Underperform rating and $198 target are maintained.

Target price is $198.00 Current Price is $227.96 Difference: minus $29.96 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $223.43, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 324.00 cents and EPS of 456.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 49.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 463.0, implying annual growth of 5.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 330.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 49.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 367.00 cents and EPS of 525.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 521.8, implying annual growth of 12.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 367.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates COH as Lighten (4) -

Cochlear's acquisition of Demant's hearing implants business Oticon Medical has been partly prohibited by the UK Competition and Markets Authority (CMA).

While the acquisition of the implants business has passed competition concerns and is permitted to proceed, the acquisition of the bone conduction implants business would substantially lessen competition in the UK, according to the CMA.

Management now anticipates around $10m in annualised revenue will be added, or roughly 2% of its services revenue. The broker expects Ord Minnett will develop profitable new sound processors compatible with Oticon's implants.

Lighten rating and $193 target maintained.

Target price is $193.00 Current Price is $227.96 Difference: minus $34.96 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $223.43, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 330.00 cents and EPS of 467.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 48.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 463.0, implying annual growth of 5.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 330.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 49.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 360.00 cents and EPS of 512.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 44.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 521.8, implying annual growth of 12.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 367.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DLI  DELTA LITHIUM LIMITED

New Battery Elements

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Overnight Price: $0.95

Bell Potter rates DLI as Speculative Buy (1) -

Delta Lithium as drilling results from Yinnetharra, Western Australia. Two broad and high-grade intercepts of 33m at 1.9% lithium from 218m and 19m at 1.6% lithium from 190m has meant Bell Potter updates  its modelling.

The valuation for the project is increased by 55%. The capital structure is also updated for the recent $46m placement. The Speculative Buy rating is unchanged. Target is raised to $1.25 from $1.05.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $0.95 Difference: $0.3
If DLI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 73.08.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 95.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EDV  ENDEAVOUR GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $6.27

Macquarie rates EDV as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes Australian consumer expenditure appears to be at a tipping point and has become cautious on discretionary retail earnings while believing the market is more bullish on the outlook for margins in food and beverages.

Endeavour Group remains a top pick in the category and the broker retains an Outperform rating while reducing the target to $6.90 from $7.10.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $6.27 Difference: $0.63
If EDV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.71, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 20.30 cents and EPS of 29.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.4, implying annual growth of 10.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 30.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.7, implying annual growth of 1.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVN  EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $3.30

Macquarie rates EVN as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie updates earnings forecasts to incorporate its latest commodity price outlook. Short-term gold price upgrades drive modest increases to targets for gold stocks as well as near-term earnings.

Evolution Mining estimates are also adjusted by a downgrade to the copper price outlook. Underperform maintained. Target is raised to $3.10 from $3.00.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $3.30 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.33, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 14.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.9, implying annual growth of -21.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 23.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.6, implying annual growth of 98.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HLO  HELLOWORLD TRAVEL LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism

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Overnight Price: $2.47

Ord Minnett rates HLO as Upgrade to Accumulate from Lighten (2) -

Ord Minnett upgrades its rating for Helloworld Travel by two notches to Accumulate from Lighten on valuation after a recent share price fall. It's suggested prospective investors adopt a buy on weakness approach.

Moreover, the broker has a positive view on the acquisition of Express Travel Group for $70m target for cash and scrip. The company is considered one of the most well-regarded and managed unlisted travel agency groups in the Australian market.

The target is increased to $2.84 from $2.62. The analysts also notes the large scale of Helloworld Travel's business is an advantage, as highlighted by Qantas Airways ((QAN)) recently playing hard ball on agency distribution costs.

Target price is $2.84 Current Price is $2.47 Difference: $0.37
If HLO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.23, suggesting upside of 26.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 9.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.0, implying annual growth of -82.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 12.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.0, implying annual growth of 40.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HMC  HMC CAPITAL LIMITED

Real Estate

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Overnight Price: $4.77

Morgan Stanley rates HMC as Equal-weight (3) -

HMC Capital has attracted its first ever institutional inflow ($350m) and has reached first close in its Last Mile Logistics (LML) funds series.

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT ((HDN)) will provide an additional $50m and 50% gearing implies $800m of total capacity, which the analysts note is less than the $1bn originally mooted, as recently as February.

The seven-year closed-end fund will acquire, reposition and then divest daily needs shopping malls.

The broker notes the seed asset (Menai Marketpace, Sydney) was purchased for $150m in December 2022 and has already been revalued to $175m.

Equal-weight and $4.35 taregt retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $4.77 Difference: minus $0.42 (current price is over target).
If HMC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.87, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.8, implying annual growth of -21.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.4, implying annual growth of 26.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HVN  HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED

Consumer Electronics

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Overnight Price: $3.22

Macquarie rates HVN as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie observes Australian consumer expenditure appears to be at a tipping point and has become cautious on discretionary retail earnings while believing the market is more bullish on the outlook for margins in food and beverages.

Furthermore, Harvey Norman appears to have ceded share to JB Hi-Fi. Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $3.60 from $3.90.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.22 Difference: $0.38
If HVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.64, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 26.60 cents and EPS of 40.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.9, implying annual growth of -34.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 25.50 cents and EPS of 34.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.4, implying annual growth of -24.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JBH  JB HI-FI LIMITED

Consumer Electronics

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Overnight Price: $41.68

Macquarie rates JBH as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie observes Australian consumer expenditure appears to be at a tipping point and has become cautious on discretionary retail earnings while believing the market is more bullish on the outlook for margins in food and beverages.

Hence, while JB Hi-Fi appears to have taken share in the discretionary market compared with its competitor Harvey Norman the Underperform rating is maintained in the target is reduced to $ 41.60 from $42.40.

Target price is $41.60 Current Price is $41.68 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $44.40, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 300.00 cents and EPS of 457.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 457.3, implying annual growth of -4.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 299.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 228.00 cents and EPS of 349.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 333.3, implying annual growth of -27.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 218.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JRV  JERVOIS GLOBAL LIMITED

New Battery Elements

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Overnight Price: $0.07

Macquarie rates JRV as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie updates earnings forecasts to incorporate its latest commodity price outlook. Short-term price forecasts have been downgraded, particularly for bulks and base metals, notably zinc.

Among base metal producers, Jervois Global has one of the largest reductions in its target, -11%, largely because of cobalt price reductions from 2028 onwards. Target is reduced to 8c from 9c and a Neutral rating is maintained.

Target price is $0.08 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0.011
If JRV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.31.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 23.00.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LOV  LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED

Retailing

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Overnight Price: $18.03

Ord Minnett rates LOV as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett upgrades its rating for Lovisa Holdings to Accumulate from Hold on valuation after a recent share price fall.

No changes are made to the broker's forecasts and the $22 target is unchanged.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $18.03 Difference: $3.97
If LOV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.85, suggesting upside of 47.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 55.10 cents and EPS of 68.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.6, implying annual growth of 24.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 54.40 cents and EPS of 68.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.9, implying annual growth of 22.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGR  MIRVAC GROUP

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $2.20

Ord Minnett rates MGR as Accumulate (2) -

There are emerging signs weather delay for residential developers are easing, providing some relief for the likes of Mirvac Group, given construction interruptions experienced in late-2022 and early-2023. Labour and materials shortages have also diminished.

The weather outlook for eastern Australia has improved, notes the broker, with the odds increasing of an El Nino event, which typically limits rainfall in winter and spring.

The analyst notes Mirvac Group has one of the strongest balance sheets in the Property sector. The Accumulate rating and $3.10 target are unchanged.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $0.9
If MGR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.61, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.50 cents and EPS of 13.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.3, implying annual growth of -37.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.50 cents and EPS of 13.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of 0.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN  MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $71.96

Macquarie rates MIN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie updates earnings forecasts to incorporate its latest commodity price outlook. Short-term price forecasts have been downgraded, particularly for bulks and base metals, notably zinc.

Movements in spot iron ore and spodumene prices present the most material risk to earnings forecasts for Mineral Resources.

The target is lowered to $105 from $107. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $105.00 Current Price is $71.96 Difference: $33.04
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $85.43, suggesting upside of 23.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 188.00 cents and EPS of 374.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 460.1, implying annual growth of 148.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 251.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 486.00 cents and EPS of 972.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 724.6, implying annual growth of 57.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 303.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MND  MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $11.68

Ord Minnett rates MND as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett upgrades its rating for Monadelphous Group to Accumulate from Hold on valuation.

No changes are made to the broker's forecasts and the $14.25 target is unchanged.

Target price is $14.25 Current Price is $11.68 Difference: $2.57
If MND meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.51, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 53.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.0, implying annual growth of 2.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 66.00 cents and EPS of 74.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.9, implying annual growth of 19.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NCM  NEWCREST MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $25.88

Macquarie rates NCM as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie updates earnings forecasts to incorporate its latest commodity price outlook. Short-term gold price upgrades drive modest increases to targets for gold stocks with the exception of Newcrest Mining.

Its target is reduced to $27 from $30 because a reduction in the broker's NAV multiple which aligns with valuation and the implied value of the Newmont offer. Neutral maintained.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $25.88 Difference: $1.12
If NCM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.72, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 68.32 cents and EPS of 120.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 125.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 24.51 cents and EPS of 177.63 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 159.2, implying annual growth of 27.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NHC  NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED

Coal

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Overnight Price: $5.05

Macquarie rates NHC as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Macquarie updates earnings forecasts to incorporate its latest commodity price outlook. Short-term price forecasts have been downgraded, particularly for bulks and base metals.

Thermal coal is downgraded -8-21% over the next three years. Hence, New Hope is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral. Target price is reduced to $4.50 from $5.40.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $5.05 Difference: minus $0.55 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.24, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 73.00 cents and EPS of 137.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 14.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 146.6, implying annual growth of 24.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 81.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 16.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 69.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.0, implying annual growth of -47.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NST  NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $12.30

Macquarie rates NST as Outperform (1) -

Northern Star Resources has approved the expansion of the KCGM plant. This will take process capacity to 27mtpa from the current 13mtpa. The project is expected to take three years to complete followed by a two-year ramp-up.

Cost is expected to be around $1.5bn. Macquarie considers the expansion the key driver of growth for the company, in order to sustain production above the prior 2mozpa target in FY26.

Moreover, further synergies could be realised at other deposits in the area given the strong cost improvement the expansion provides. Outperform rating and $15 target maintained.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $12.30 Difference: $2.7
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.39, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 28.40 cents and EPS of 29.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.0, implying annual growth of -27.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 46.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 35.80 cents and EPS of 52.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.3, implying annual growth of 130.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

S32  SOUTH32 LIMITED

Mining

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Overnight Price: $3.72

Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie updates earnings forecasts to incorporate its latest commodity price outlook. Short-term price forecasts have been downgraded, particularly for bulks and base metals, notably zinc.

The broker downgrades near-term earnings by -10-20% for the large cap miners that are exposed to lower iron ore prices.

Macquarie reiterates an Outperform rating for South32, noting the company has a different commodity portfolio (alumina, base metals and coking coal) compared with the other iron ore majors. Target is reduced to $4.60 from $4.80.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.72 Difference: $0.88
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.78, suggesting upside of 28.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 13.96 cents and EPS of 34.75 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 17.82 cents and EPS of 44.26 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.9, implying annual growth of 19.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SFR  SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED

Copper

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Overnight Price: $5.95

Macquarie rates SFR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie updates earnings forecasts to incorporate its latest commodity price outlook. Short-term price forecasts have been downgraded, particularly for bulks and base metals, notably zinc.

An upgrade to copper & nickel in the short term and downgrades to zinc & cobalt price forecasts drives a decrease in the target for Sandfire Resources to $7.10 from $7.30.

The stock is Macquarie's key pick among base metal producers, successfully producing its first concentrate from Motheo in the second quarter of 2023 with ramp up expected to continue through the year. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $5.95 Difference: $1.15
If SFR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.93, suggesting upside of 17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 13.37 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 44.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -14.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 129.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGP  STOCKLAND

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $4.01

Ord Minnett rates SGP as Hold (3) -

There are emerging signs weather delay for residential developers are easing, providing some relief for the likes of Stockland, given construction interruptions experienced in late-2022 and early-2023. Labour and materials shortages have also diminished.

The weather outlook for eastern Australia has improved, notes the broker, with the odds increasing of an El Nino event, which typically limits rainfall in winter and spring.

The analyst notes Stockland has one of the strongest balance sheets in the Property sector. The Hold rating and $4.35 target are unchanged.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $4.01 Difference: $0.34
If SGP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.40, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 25.50 cents and EPS of 29.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.9, implying annual growth of -44.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 25.70 cents and EPS of 29.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.8, implying annual growth of -3.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SRL  SUNRISE ENERGY METALS LIMITED

New Battery Elements

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Overnight Price: $1.02

Macquarie rates SRL as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie updates earnings forecasts to incorporate its latest commodity price outlook. Short-term price forecasts have been downgraded, particularly for bulks and base metals, notably zinc.

Among base metal producers, Sunrise Energy Metals has the largest reduction in its target, -28%, largely because of cobalt price reductions from 2028 onwards. Target is reduced to $1.06 from $1.47. Neutral maintained.

Target price is $1.06 Current Price is $1.02 Difference: $0.035
If SRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.90.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.76.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WHC  WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED

Coal

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Overnight Price: $6.66

Macquarie rates WHC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie updates earnings forecasts to incorporate its latest commodity price outlook. Short-term price forecasts have been downgraded, particularly for bulks and base metals, notably zinc.

Given large decreases in thermal coal price forecasts, Macquarie reduces the target for Whitehaven Coal to $7.70 from $8.50. Earnings estimates are downgraded by -12-40% over FY24-26. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $6.66 Difference: $1.04
If WHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.01, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 58.00 cents and EPS of 297.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 2.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 306.7, implying annual growth of 55.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 2.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 119.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 149.5, implying annual growth of -51.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WOR  WORLEY LIMITED

Energy Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $15.65

Ord Minnett rates WOR as Lighten (4) -

While Ord Minnett feels the current share price of Worley is expensive, it still feels the company is ideally positioned to prosper from the low carbon transition, while still not ignoring its traditional business.

The target rises by 5% to $12.60 due to the time value of money and the Lighten rating is unchanged.

Apart from improved risk allocation across contracts and elimination of lower-margin contracts, the analyst is forecasting margin improvement via operating leverage and an increasing number of complex, large-scale, sustainability-related projects.

Target price is $12.60 Current Price is $15.65 Difference: minus $3.05 (current price is over target).
If WOR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.63, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 48.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.1, implying annual growth of 86.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 50.70 cents and EPS of 67.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.0, implying annual growth of 26.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WOW  WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $39.86

Macquarie rates WOW as Neutral (3) -

As Macquarie continues to envisage a switch to staples in the current economic environment earnings forecasts are revised up for Woolworths.

Consumer staple names have broadly flat margin expectations over the next three years. Neutral maintained. Target rises to $40.00 from $39.50.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $39.86 Difference: $0.14
If WOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.73, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 100.00 cents and EPS of 131.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 136.9, implying annual growth of 8.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 103.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 110.00 cents and EPS of 143.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 148.2, implying annual growth of 8.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 110.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
29M 29Metals $0.80 Macquarie 0.90 1.00 -10.00%
AMI Aurelia Metals $0.09 Macquarie 0.23 0.24 -4.17%
BHP BHP Group $44.31 Citi 44.00 43.00 2.33%
Macquarie 49.00 52.00 -5.77%
BOE Boss Energy $3.10 Macquarie 3.50 3.20 9.37%
CHN Chalice Mining $6.35 Macquarie 9.20 9.60 -4.17%
CRN Coronado Global Resources $1.51 Macquarie 2.20 2.40 -8.33%
DCN Dacian Gold $0.08 Macquarie 0.09 0.08 12.50%
DLI Delta Lithium $0.89 Bell Potter 1.25 1.05 19.05%
DRR Deterra Royalties $4.50 Macquarie 4.80 5.00 -4.00%
EDV Endeavour Group $6.19 Macquarie 6.90 7.10 -2.82%
EVN Evolution Mining $3.34 Macquarie 3.10 3.00 3.33%
FMG Fortescue Metals $21.41 Macquarie 17.30 17.00 1.76%
HLO Helloworld Travel $2.55 Ord Minnett 2.84 2.62 8.40%
HVN Harvey Norman $3.20 Macquarie 3.60 3.90 -7.69%
ILU Iluka Resources $11.16 Macquarie 12.50 12.30 1.63%
JBH JB Hi-Fi $41.53 Macquarie 41.60 42.40 -1.89%
JMS Jupiter Mines $0.21 Macquarie 0.28 0.30 -6.67%
JRV Jervois Global $0.07 Macquarie 0.08 0.09 -11.11%
LLL Leo Lithium $1.09 Macquarie 1.60 1.55 3.23%
MGX Mount Gibson Iron $0.43 Macquarie 0.55 0.60 -8.33%
MIN Mineral Resources $69.10 Macquarie 105.00 107.00 -1.87%
NCM Newcrest Mining $26.20 Macquarie 27.00 30.00 -10.00%
NHC New Hope $4.89 Macquarie 4.50 5.40 -16.67%
PAN Panoramic Resources $0.10 Macquarie 0.19 0.18 5.56%
PDN Paladin Energy $0.69 Macquarie 1.10 1.00 10.00%
RIO Rio Tinto $112.74 Macquarie 115.00 122.00 -5.74%
RMS Ramelius Resources $1.29 Macquarie 1.65 1.59 3.77%
RRL Regis Resources $1.88 Macquarie 2.90 2.80 3.57%
RSG Resolute Mining $0.40 Macquarie 0.55 0.52 5.77%
S32 South32 $3.71 Macquarie 4.60 4.80 -4.17%
SFR Sandfire Resources $5.92 Macquarie 7.10 7.30 -2.74%
SRL Sunrise Energy Metals $0.99 Macquarie 1.06 1.47 -27.89%
WES Wesfarmers $48.37 Macquarie 52.00 52.80 -1.52%
WGX Westgold Resources $1.43 Macquarie 2.00 1.90 5.26%
WHC Whitehaven Coal $6.57 Macquarie 7.70 8.50 -9.41%
WOR Worley $15.60 Ord Minnett 12.60 12.00 5.00%
WOW Woolworths Group $39.54 Macquarie 40.00 39.50 1.27%
Summaries
29M 29Metals Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.83
ANN Ansell Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $25.89
AZS Azure Minerals Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy - Bell Potter Overnight Price $1.35
BHP BHP Group Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $44.60
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $44.60
CHN Chalice Mining Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $6.33
CMM Capricorn Metals Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $4.05
CMW Cromwell Property Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $0.50
COH Cochlear Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $227.96
Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $227.96
DLI Delta Lithium Speculative Buy - Bell Potter Overnight Price $0.95
EDV Endeavour Group Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $6.27
EVN Evolution Mining Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.30
HLO Helloworld Travel Upgrade to Accumulate from Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.47
HMC HMC Capital Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $4.77
HVN Harvey Norman Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.22
JBH JB Hi-Fi Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $41.68
JRV Jervois Global Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.07
LOV Lovisa Holdings Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $18.03
MGR Mirvac Group Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.20
MIN Mineral Resources Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $71.96
MND Monadelphous Group Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $11.68
NCM Newcrest Mining Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $25.88
NHC New Hope Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.05
NST Northern Star Resources Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $12.30
S32 South32 Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.72
SFR Sandfire Resources Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.95
SGP Stockland Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.01
SRL Sunrise Energy Metals Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.02
WHC Whitehaven Coal Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $6.66
WOR Worley Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $15.65
WOW Woolworths Group Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $39.86
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

12

2. Accumulate

5

3. Hold

9

4. Reduce

2

5. Sell

4

Monday 26 June 2023

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.