Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates ALX as Equal-weight (3) -

France has implemented a 15-day blockade, restricting any unnecessary travel. Morgan Stanley estimates Atlas Arteria's FY20 distribution guidance could be at risk, should APRR traffic fall -9% in FY20.

A holding company debt lock-up could occur under a -17% decline in full-year traffic. Equal-weight rating, Cautious industry view. Target is $7.92.

Target price is $7.92 Current Price is $5.05 Difference: $2.87
If ALX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.92, suggesting upside of 56.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMI as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage with a Buy rating and $0.45 target. The broker believes the business is misunderstood, despite a strong balance sheet and healthy cash flow.

The stock is down -40% in the year to date and appears to trade like a distressed business.

With operating concerns resolved and a new management team, the broker expects investor interest will return.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.21
If AMI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 88% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ANZ as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Credit Suisse lowers estimates, increasing bad debt provisions and allowing for a peak in the second half of FY20.

The broker also incorporates additional margin impact from the announcements from the Reserve Bank, although these are less than originally feared given the introduction of a term funding facility.

Dividend forecasts are reduced by -10%. The broker upgrades to Outperform from Neutral and reduces the target to $22.80 from $24.50.

Target price is $22.80 Current Price is $15.97 Difference: $6.83
If ANZ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.29, suggesting upside of 39.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ANZ as Hold (3) -

Morgans downgrades cash earnings and dividend forecasts for all four major banks as a result of expectations for lower net interest margins, lower credit growth and a deterioration in asset quality.

The broker believes ANZ Bank is the most vulnerable to cuts in the US Fed Funds rate and Bank of England's base rate.

Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $18.50 from $27.50.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $15.97 Difference: $2.53
If ANZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.29, suggesting upside of 39.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates APT as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Following the savage drop in the share price, UBS upgrades to Neutral from Sell. The broker asserts the strong equity funding and high receivables turnover mean the near-term funding risks are low.

The broker believes investors should reconsider longer-term growth assumptions. With higher customer defaults there is the likelihood of an impairment to the longer-term outlook because such customers cannot use the platform again.

Therefore longer-term customer assumptions are lowered to 18m by FY25, from 22.5m. Target is reduced to $13.20 from $17.90.

Target price is $13.20 Current Price is $12.44 Difference: $0.76
If APT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.87, suggesting upside of 196.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AX1 as Overweight (1) -

Accent Group has stepped away from guidance for FY20 and second half earnings growth.

While the company now expects a decline in earnings year-on-year, Morgan Stanley suspects, on the back of commentary, that it remains well-positioned in terms of inventory, supply chain, the digital offering and relative scale.

Overweight. Target is $2.00. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $0.77 Difference: $1.23
If AX1 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 160% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.99, suggesting upside of 158.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BLD as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Boral shares have fallen -53% year to date compared to -28% for the index on soft domestic construction and balance sheet concerns, Citi notes. While the virus will derail US housing construction in the June quarter, stimulus measures should enable a strong rebound.

The shares are now trading below GFC lows. Citi believes balance sheet fears are overblown, and, on current valuation, investors are effectively getting the USG-Boral and NAM business for free.

Guidance has been withdrawn despite demand deterioration yet to be seen, except in China, which is now recovering. Management is nonetheless ready for the drop-off. The broker cuts its target to $3.00 from $4.80 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.17 Difference: $0.83
If BLD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.78, suggesting upside of 74.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BLD as Equal-weight (3) -

Boral has withdrawn FY20 guidance, given end-market uncertainty. The company has outlined a balance sheet with US$500m of undrawn funds available and a US$400m acquisition loan facility. There are no earnings-related covenants.

The company has also indicated the ACCC is unlikely to approve the call option component of the Knauf transaction. The implication is unclear but Morgan Stanley suspects the deal will need to be restructured.

Target is reduced to $3 from $5. Equal-weight rating. Industry view is Cautious.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.17 Difference: $0.83
If BLD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.78, suggesting upside of 74.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BLD as Hold (3) -

Boral has withdrawn FY20 guidance. Ord Minnett adjusts earnings forecast to factor in significant disruptions in the fourth quarter and a gradual improvement thereafter.

The company also believes it unlikely the ACCC will approve the call option in the proposed transaction with Knauf.

Ord Minnett suspects this could be a positive for Boral if the price for Australasian plasterboard remains unchanged.

The broker retains a Hold rating and lowers the target to $2.70 from $4.50.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.17 Difference: $0.53
If BLD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.78, suggesting upside of 74.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BLD as Buy (1) -

Boral has withdrawn FY20 guidance. While there is no material impact from the virus outside of USG Boral China, the company is now witnessing signs demand could worsen.

This is led by parts of the US, where production at some of the company's operating sites could be halted. Boral has reiterated there are no debt covenants based on earnings.

UBS maintains a Buy rating and $5.50 target and trims FY20 net profit estimates by -9%.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $2.17 Difference: $3.33
If BLD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 153% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.78, suggesting upside of 74.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BSL as Buy (1) -

BlueScope Steel's second half performance to date is in line with expectation as Australian demand remains robust, steel spreads remain stable and Chinese operations are now ramping back up, the broker notes. But the virus will hit sentiment, economic outlook and operations, for example Malaysia has shutdown and so have US car manufacturers.

The company has thus withdrawn guidance. With the share price having fallen -40% year to date to the market's -28%, the broker retains Buy. Target falls to $13 from $15.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $9.46 Difference: $3.54
If BSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.63, suggesting upside of 44.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BSL as Outperform (1) -

BlueScope Steel has withdrawn FY20 guidance amid the uncertainty as global markets reduce activity. Credit Suisse reduces FY20 and FY21 estimates for earnings per share by -8.4% and -8.0% respectively.

Target is reduced to $13.10 from $15.30. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $13.10 Current Price is $9.46 Difference: $3.64
If BSL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.63, suggesting upside of 44.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BSL as Equal-weight (3) -

BlueScope Steel has withdrawn guidance for the second half. To date, the performance has been in line with management's expectations.

Management has indicated the recent shutdown in Malaysia and a decision by US car makers to cease production have added uncertainty.

Morgan Stanley notes the company is virtually debt free which positions it well. Equal-weight maintained. Target is $13.00. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $9.46 Difference: $3.54
If BSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.63, suggesting upside of 44.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BSL as Neutral (3) -

The company has withdrawn FY20 earnings (EBIT) guidance. BlueScope Steel notes the performance for the March quarter has been in line with expectations.

The trigger to withdraw guidance is the US automotive industry's move to temporary suspend production until the end of March. Around 50% of the company's North Star production goes into the automotive industry.

UBS believes the company is in a relatively strong position to ride out the volatility, given a net cash position of $358m. Moreover, the assets are unlikely to be structurally harmed by the epidemic. Neutral rating maintained. Target is $13.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $9.46 Difference: $3.54
If BSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.63, suggesting upside of 44.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CBA as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse lowers earnings estimates and allows for an increase in bad debts. The broker also incorporates additional margin impact from the Reserve Bank's announcements, which is less than originally feared given the term funding facility.

Dividend forecasts are reduced by -10%. Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $65 from $77.

Target price is $65.00 Current Price is $60.40 Difference: $4.6
If CBA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $66.96, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CBA as Upgrade to Hold from Reduce (3) -

Morgans downgrades cash earnings and dividend forecasts for all four major banks as a result of expectations for lower net interest margins, lower credit growth and a deterioration in asset quality.

The broker believes Commonwealth Bank and Westpac ((WBC)) are most defensively positioned because their loan books are more skewed to Australian home lending.

The broker upgrades Commonwealth Bank to Hold from Reduce and lowers the target to $67 from $74.

Target price is $67.00 Current Price is $60.40 Difference: $6.6
If CBA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $66.96, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CCX as Buy (1) -

City Chic Collective has warned sales have been very soft in March but notes its supply chain is well positioned and its balance sheet is strong. With online representing 60% of sales, and very little debt, the company is better placed than most apparel retailers, the broker suggests.

City Chic also makes most of its purchases in AUD, thus not impacted by the exchange rate plunge, the broker notes, and around one third of earnings are in the US, and are thus boosted by the exchange rate plunge. Buy and $2.50 target retained.

The broker has slightly reduced forecasts but not published them.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: $1.29
If CCX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 107% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CCX as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley found the trading update relatively positive. Demand appears to be holding up although the company has noted the outbreak of coronavirus is now affecting consumer spending.

Two thirds of the sales globally are through online channels and in this environment the broker suggests this could be of benefit to the company.

Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating and $4 target. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: $2.79
If CCX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 231% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DMP as Equal-weight (3) -

Domino's Pizza has decided to close its doors in France for 15 days. The decision to close was made after consultation with franchisees and is not a directive of the government.

Other markets are not seeing the same expectations to close and Italy continues to deliver. The company is unsure at this stage whether there will be a material impact on FY20 financial results.

Strong sales in other markets could offset the impact from France. Equal-weight and a $57 target. Industry view is Cautious.

Target price is $57.00 Current Price is $47.28 Difference: $9.72
If DMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $56.99, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DMP as Accumulate (2) -

Domino's Pizza has closed stores in France for 15 days. Ord Minnett believes the opportunity exists for market share in deliveries to grow as closures are not expected to continue for the medium term.

The broker reduces local currency operating earnings estimates in Europe. Accumulate rating maintained. Target is reduced to $60 from $67.

Target price is $60.00 Current Price is $47.28 Difference: $12.72
If DMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $56.99, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates FLT as Outperform (1) -

Flight Centre is in a trading halt. The company faces an issue of liquidity, not business value, Credit Suisse emphasises. The question for investors, the broker asserts, is whether to chase the liquidity issue or support rectification.

The broker believes a combination of cancelling the dividend, tax relief and a 15% placement would provide sufficient liquidity to meet funding requirements.

Outperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $22.49 from $26.74.

Target price is $22.49 Current Price is $9.91 Difference: $12.58
If FLT meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 127% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.38, suggesting upside of 176.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GPT as Underweight (5) -

GPT has withdrawn 2020 guidance. Morgan Stanley suggests the retail portfolio has provided most of the uncertainty.

The company has confirmed it is not customary to have rent relief in office and industrial assets from lower staff occupancy, so 60% of the rental income remains robust.

Underweight rating. Target is $5.90. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $3.26 Difference: $2.64
If GPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 81% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.21, suggesting upside of 90.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GUD as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

GUD Holdings has outperformed the S&P/ASX small industrials index, amid a perceived defensive sales profile and strong cash generation

Yet, Ord Minnett notes the manufacturing base is largely in China and the significant deterioration in the Australian dollar is yet to be priced in.

The broker appreciates there could be a number of mitigating factors but downgrades to Hold from Accumulate and awaits more clarity around margins. Target is reduced to $9.50 from $12.50.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $8.20 Difference: $1.3
If GUD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.34, suggesting upside of 38.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates HUB as Outperform (1) -

The company has won a new account which will transition around $1bn of funds under administration. Credit Suisse upgrades flow forecasts in the outer years to capture the benefit.

A reduction in cash administration fees is likely, following the cut to the Reserve Bank's cash rate. The earnings impact is likely to be -15% in FY21, the broker asserts.

Outperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $10.20 from $12.80.

Target price is $10.20 Current Price is $7.86 Difference: $2.34
If HUB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.17, suggesting upside of 54.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HVN as Equal-weight (3) -

Harvey Norman has indicated Australian franchisee comparable sales growth accelerated to 9.4% for 1-17 March. Morgan Stanley suspects this is likely to reflect a short-term benefit from consumers establishing home offices.

New Zealand and Ireland also appear to have benefited. Stores are being closed in Slovenia until further notice and for a period in Malaysia and Croatia, all by government decree.

Morgan Stanley retains an Equal-weight rating, $3.50 target and Cautious industry view.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $0.76
If HVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting upside of 34.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HVN as Hold (3) -

Harvey Norman has noted strong sales growth in Australasia and Ireland, up until March 17. Sales have been boosted by category-specific events, notably working from home.

Meanwhile, store closures, including Slovenia, Malaysia and Croatia are likely to weigh on international operations. Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating and reduces the target to $3.25 from $3.75.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $0.51
If HVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting upside of 34.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LOV as Equal-weight (3) -

Around 79 Lovisa stores are now temporarily closed. All other stores in the network are experiencing large decreases in traffic.

New store openings are now deferred, excluding those where the company is already on site or holds committed leases. Morgan Stanley estimates the company could be committed to opening 10-20 stores in the second half.

The business is clearly more exposed to coronavirus impacts than some discretionary peers but the broker considers the issues are temporary and the stock could ultimately present investors with a compelling buying opportunity.

Equal-weight retained. Target is $11.75. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $11.75 Current Price is $4.02 Difference: $7.73
If LOV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 192% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.18, suggesting upside of 178.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MIN as Accumulate (2) -

The company has announced the sale of its manganese assets to Resource Development ((RDG)) in exchange for a 75% holding.

The transaction is immaterial, in Ord Minnett's view, but is a way to keep the project progressing. Accumulate rating and $16 target maintained.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $13.73 Difference: $2.27
If MIN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.73, suggesting upside of 29.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MMS as Equal-weight (3) -

The company has withdrawn FY20 guidance but noted trading in the March quarter to date has been in line with expectations. Novated leasing enquiries have started to slow.

 No update was provided on asset management or retail financial services. Target is $14. In-Line sector view. Equal-weight.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $6.41 Difference: $7.59
If MMS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 118% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.67, suggesting upside of 113.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MNF as Overweight (1) -

FY20 operating earnings (EBITDA) guidance is reiterated at $36-39m. The company has experienced strong demand for phone numbers across all three operating segments used for collaboration and conferencing.

Morgan Stanley points out that the company was expecting considerable volume growth in the second half anyway and the latest update appears to be incremental. Usage volumes are also higher than normal across all segments.

Overweight retained. Target is $5.40. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $3.81 Difference: $1.59
If MNF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates MPL as Upgrade to Outperform from Underperform (1) -

While hesitant to alter earnings, Credit Suisse is increasingly confident there will be a claims holiday for the private health industry in coming months.

A pulling forward of health insurance claims in the June quarter has potential to deliver a significant benefit to the insurers.

This will be partially offset by investment income and elevated international insurance claims.

The broker notes the stock has underperformed the market by -15% over the nine months to March, and then has outperformed.

Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Underperform. Target is raised to $3.00 from $2.80.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.68 Difference: $0.32
If MPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.89, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NAB as Upgrade to Outperform from Underperform (1) -

Credit Suisse lowers earnings estimates and allows for an increase in bad debts. The broker also incorporates additional margin impact from the Reserve Bank's announcements, which is less than originally feared given the term funding facility.

Dividend forecasts are reduced by -10%. Credit Suisse upgrades to Outperform from Underperform and reduces the target to $19.50 from $22.90.

Target price is $19.50 Current Price is $15.77 Difference: $3.73
If NAB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.29, suggesting upside of 41.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NAB as Hold (3) -

Morgans downgrades cash earnings and dividend forecasts for all four major banks as a result of expectations for lower net interest margins, lower credit growth and a deterioration in asset quality.

Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $17.50 from $27.50.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $15.77 Difference: $1.73
If NAB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.29, suggesting upside of 41.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NEC as Outperform (1) -

FY20 guidance is withdrawn and Credit Suisse lowers full year forecasts for the metro TV advertising market, expecting a -11% decline. Weakness is expected to continue into FY21.

Despite the downgrades, the broker observes leverage metrics are comfortable. A refinancing of corporate debt was recently completed. Outperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $1.90 from $2.15.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $0.95 Difference: $0.95
If NEC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.12, suggesting upside of 123.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NWL as Neutral (3) -

FY20 guidance is downgraded by -2-5% to allow for weaker equity markets and a reduction in the cash administration fee. In addition, flows are expected to remain subdued into at least the first half of FY21.

Credit Suisse observes the company is making the most of the unique opportunity created by the disruption to the wealth management industry and can gain market share.

Strong flows are expected to return in FY22 along with earnings growth. Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $6.40 from $7.90.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $6.50 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.43, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NWL as Neutral (3) -

Netwealth has announced it will absorb the impact of the cut to the official cash rate, equivalent to a cut of around -10% to pre-tax profit on a full year basis. This is in line with UBS forecasts.

Hence, revised FY20 guidance is only marginally below the broker's estimates. The broker now believes Netwealth offers greater revenue resilience versus other wealth managers.

However, there is limited value appeal at present and a Neutral rating and $6.50 target are maintained.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $6.50 Difference: $0
If NWL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.43, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NXT as Overweight (1) -

NextDC has reaffirmed guidance. Morgan Stanley is not surprised, given the widely-publicised uptick in streaming volumes and remote work.

However, the company has undertaken a review of its supply chain to identify potential delays to infrastructure deliveries.

Morgan Stanley points out, too, the relatively strength of the communication sector underscores the earnings certainty.

Overweight maintained. In-Line industry view. Target is $9.00.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.18 Difference: $1.82
If NXT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.91, suggesting upside of 24.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates QAN as Neutral (3) -

Qantas has announced all international services are suspended for April & May and domestic capacity will be cut by -60%. Credit Suisse assumes a six-month shutdown and forecasts a liquidity requirement of $2.3bn by June 2020 and a further $1.5bn before December.

The airline has a strong franchise and is facing unprecedented challenges and the broker expects investors will support Qantas and it will survive. Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.20 from $4.30.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If QAN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.62, suggesting upside of 90.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QAN as Overweight (1) -

International capacity will be suspended from late March until at least the end of May. Essential domestic, regional and freight connections will be maintained as much as possible.

Morgan Stanley notes the FY20 debt requirement was refinanced in the first half and the next maturities are in June 2021.

Qantas is implementing initiatives to preserve revenue. Most corporates are also opting to convert bookings to credits rather than refunds.

Overweight rating. Target is $5.60. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: $3.18
If QAN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 131% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.62, suggesting upside of 90.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RDC as Buy (1) -

The company has withdrawn guidance and elected to withhold the March quarter dividend in response to current circumstances.

Nevertheless, a solid balance sheet and the unique character of the portfolio means Ord Minnett expects the business to successfully weather the storm.

Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $0.94 from $1.24.

Target price is $0.94 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: $0.49
If RDC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 109% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Equal-weight (3) -

An earthquake has halted production at Kennecott, Utah. Inspections are currently underway, notably at an inactive tailings storage facility.

Morgan Stanley calculates the mine constitutes 2% of attributable enterprise value to the stock.

Every week of stoppage will result in -3000t in lost copper production. Rio Tinto is currently investing to expand mine life to 2026.

Equal-weight rating retained. Industry view is In-Line. Target is $94.50.

Target price is $94.50 Current Price is $81.70 Difference: $12.8
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $99.04, suggesting upside of 21.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SHL as Sell (5) -

With routine testing likely to decline over the next 3-6 months, UBS lowers revenue growth assumptions. The broker factors in a -10% reduction in routine pathology testing and imaging.

For the balance of acute work the broker maintains historical rates of revenue growth. UBS retains a Sell rating and lowers the target to $24.25 from $26.50.

Target price is $24.25 Current Price is $22.21 Difference: $2.04
If SHL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.85, suggesting upside of 43.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SM1 as Neutral (3) -

First half net profit whilst in line with guidance and FY20 expectations are unchanged.  On the debt side, Credit Suisse suspects in the current environment it is not ideal to have limited capacity across the second half.

However, the situation should normalise into FY21 as capital expenditure returns to maintenance levels and utilisation lifts at Pokeno. Outperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to NZ$7.70 from NZ$7.75.

Current Price is $5.29. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.90, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SM1 as Hold (3) -

First half results were slightly weaker than expected. FY20 guidance is reiterated, although Morgans notes the composition is different. The broker still expects strong earnings growth over FY21/22 as asset utilisation improves.

After a sustained period of investing in new capacity and acquisitions, the balance sheet is holding the broker back from turning more positive, as it leaves little room for earnings disappointment.

Moreover, an equity raising is considered possible. Hence, Morgans maintains a Hold rating and reduces the target to $4.90 from $6.95.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $5.29 Difference: minus $0.39 (current price is over target).
If SM1 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.90, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SM1 as Buy (1) -

First half earnings were slightly below UBS estimates. This was offset by higher consumer packaged volumes and stronger gross margins on powders and creams. So far there has been minimal impact from coronavirus.

Discussions with a2 Milk ((A2M)) regarding participating in infant formula manufacturing are at an early stage but UBS believes Synlait Milk is in the box seat for any JV arrangement. Target is reduced to NZ$7.30 from NZ$8.00. Buy retained.

Current Price is $5.29. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.90, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SUL as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse notes the market appears to be taking a view that Super Retail will be faced with the liquidity squeeze. The broker estimates it has funding headroom to sustain a -25% reduction in gross profit in the second half.

While the current downturn will cause significant consolidation in the retail sector, the company could be a beneficiary in automotive spares and leisure. Credit Suisse maintains an Outperform rating and $9.94 target.

Target price is $9.94 Current Price is $4.07 Difference: $5.87
If SUL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 144% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.17, suggesting upside of 125.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SYR as Equal-weight (3) -

The company has suspended 2020 production guidance. Morgan Stanley notes Syrah Resources is already operating 50% of capacity which could make it hard to wind down production further without cost impacts.

Cash conservation could become the focus, which may warrant a temporary shutdown should the outlook for demand not improve in current quarters, suggest the analysts.

Equal-weight rating maintained. Target is $0.50. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.27
If SYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 117% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.65, suggesting upside of 181.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TAH as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett revises earnings forecasts as industry data suggests traffic at venues investments has declined -43% versus a year ago as of March 18.

Electronic gaming machine turnover is also down -15% and -20% on Monday and Tuesday of this week, respectively.

Moreover, there is a lack of migration from the retail to digital channel in terms of website traffic data for TheLott.com to date.

Ord Minnett maintains a Lighten rating and reduces the target to $2.05 from $4.05.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $2.53 Difference: minus $0.48 (current price is over target).
If TAH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.23, suggesting upside of 67.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates VAH as Underperform (5) -

Virgin Australia has suspended all international flights until mid June and cut domestic capacity by -50%.

Credit Suisse believes the airline requires significant additional liquidity and, given the two-notch credit rating reduction by S&P, more debt may not be an option.

As majority shareholders are airlines, the broker suspects it will be unable to raise additional capital from existing shareholders.

Earnings estimates for FY20-21 are reduced by -85% and the broker retains an Underperform rating. Target is reduced to $0.01 from $0.10.

Target price is $0.01 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If VAH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 83% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates VCX as Underweight (5) -

Vicinity Centres has withdrawn FY20 guidance because of further deterioration in the retail trading and operating environment. The company has also suspended the buyback program.

Morgan Stanley notes gearing is currently around 28% compared with the covenant of 50%. Underweight rating. Target is $2.07. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $2.07 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.92
If VCX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 80% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.25, suggesting upside of 95.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WBC as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse lowers earnings estimates and allows for an increase in bad debts. The broker also incorporates additional margin impact from the Reserve Bank's announcements, which is less than originally feared given the term funding facility.

Dividend forecasts are reduced by -10%. Outperform maintained. Target is reduced to $17.90 from $26.00.

Target price is $17.90 Current Price is $15.83 Difference: $2.07
If WBC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.22, suggesting upside of 34.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WBC as Add (1) -

Morgans downgrades cash earnings and dividend forecasts for all four major banks as a result of expectations for lower net interest margins, lower credit growth and a deterioration in asset quality.

The broker believes Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)) and Westpac are most defensively positioned because their loan books are more skewed to Australian home lending.

Add rating maintained. Target is reduced to $22.50 from $30.00.

Target price is $22.50 Current Price is $15.83 Difference: $6.67
If WBC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.22, suggesting upside of 34.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WEB as Underweight (5) -

Webjet is in a trading halt pending a capital raising. This capital raising comes despite modest headline gearing and highlights severe impact of coronavirus on the travel sector, Morgan Stanley observes.

The broker is yet to see any material associated with the capital raising. Underweight rating maintained. Target is $10.00. Industry View is In-Line.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $3.76 Difference: $6.24
If WEB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 166% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.70, suggesting upside of 184.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources