Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates AGL as Neutral (3) -

Analysis of Sep Q national energy market data shows demand declined despite a cold winter and churn remains elevated, the broker notes. An impact is starting to be felt from small and large scale renewable generation. Small-scale solar is growing exponentially.

Electricity price forward curves are strengthening because of the drought but the outlook for AGL earnings is flat, the broker notes, and risk is to the downside from default pricing and emission target policies. Neutral and $22.10 target retained.

Target price is $22.10 Current Price is $17.83 Difference: $4.27
If AGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.82, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AGL as Downgrade to Reduce from Hold (5) -

The federal government has asked the regulator to implement a default pricing policy to replace standing offers. The exact mechanism is yet to be determined and a new pricing structure will not be revealed until January 2019.

While AGL has only 4% of its customers on standing offers, Morgans leaves there will be pricing pressure across the retail market. The broker's estimates show that a -10% reduction in retail prices from current levels would reduce FY20 net profit by over -$100m.

The broker does not envisage a lot of upside for the stock and downgrades to Reduce from Hold. Target is lowered to $16.89 from $19.78.

Target price is $16.89 Current Price is $17.83 Difference: minus $0.94 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.82, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ARB as Neutral (3) -

First quarter revenues grew at a slower rate, the company has noted at its AGM. Credit Suisse suggests the main reasons include cycling a strong prior first quarter, the release of new vehicle models and the US trade wars affecting demand in certain export markets.

The trade war component could mean longer-term opportunities for ARB as it manufactures in Australia and Thailand, the broker suggests. Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $17.90 from $18.40.

Target price is $17.90 Current Price is $17.26 Difference: $0.64
If ARB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.81, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BAL as Buy (1) -

Despite a disappointing trading update, Citi analysts are sticking with their Buy rating for Bellamy's.

The analysts suggest the downtrend in Australian label sales might be near an inflection point, plus Citi maintains confidence the company will receive SAMR registration, based upon industry feedback.

Estimates have been cut and this pulls back the price target to $12.10 from $14.50.

Target price is $12.10 Current Price is $7.50 Difference: $4.6
If BAL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BAL as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

The company has revised FY19 guidance, given a more challenging operating environment in both Australia and China following a slowing in the category and increased competition.

Morgans notes, unexpectedly, management has decided to run down distributor trade inventory and support the re-launch of its upgraded range in the second half. This will reduce first half sales by -$10-15m.

First half Australian label sales are expected to be down -10-15%. Morgans downgrades FY19 net profit forecasts by -15.6%. The broker is disappointed with the update and believes FY19 will be a transition year for the company. Rating is downgraded to Hold from Add. Target is reduced to $8.75 from $14.02.

Target price is $8.75 Current Price is $7.50 Difference: $1.25
If BAL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates BLD as Buy (1) -

The wet first quarter in North America is expected to impact the company's first half but Deutsche Bank believes this will not result in a downgrade to guidance as this is already very conservative.

While gearing is likely to prevent an outright acquisition, the broker believes any joint venture which incorporates a broader Asian exposure will be greeted positively. Buy rating maintained. Target is $8.10.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $5.64 Difference: $2.46
If BLD meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.54, suggesting upside of 33.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CAT as Add (1) -

The company reported a strong first quarter, with underlying cash from operations up more than 60%. Underlying earnings from Elite wearables and video continue to grow strongly, while the main negative from the update is that the margin on Prosumer devices in FY19 is likely to be well below market expectations.

Morgans observes the share price is substantially below its valuation and retains an Add rating. If Catapult meets expectations in FY19 the broker believes the risk discount currently applied to the stock will ease up. Target is $1.88.

Target price is $1.88 Current Price is $1.13 Difference: $0.75
If CAT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 66% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSR as Hold (3) -

Ahead of the company's first half result on November 2, Ord Minnett estimates a net profit of $99m with the full year profit slightly ahead of the mid point of guidance, which is in a range of $176-204m.

The broker expects a positive reaction if FY19 guidance is reiterated. In addition, solid valuation support and an attractive dividend yield may limit the downside.

The broker maintains a Hold rating and believes the stock will struggle to outperform materially over the next year in the face of a deteriorating residential construction market. Target is lowered to $4 from $5.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.34 Difference: $0.66
If CSR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.03, suggesting upside of 50.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CWY as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Morgans observes the share prices declined by almost -20% from its high in August. This provides a buying opportunity, with the broker calculating total potential returns over the next 12 months of around 14%. Hence the rating is upgraded to Add from Hold.

The broker notes the company continues to win large contracts while extracting synergies from the Toxfree acquisition, and has indicated it will not compromise the latter's existing business. Target is raised to $1.89 from $1.86.

Target price is $1.89 Current Price is $1.78 Difference: $0.11
If CWY meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.98, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates DXS as Hold (3) -

Dexus has reaffirmed FY19 guidance for distribution growth of 5%. The company continues to report improvements in its office operating metrics and its industrial division is also positive. Office and industrial remain Deutsche Bank's preferred property markets but considers this priced into the stock.

The broker highlights its target of $10.50 reflects only 2% upside versus the current share price. Hold rating maintained.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $10.13 Difference: $0.37
If DXS meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.58, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates GPT as Hold (3) -

The company has upgraded distribution guidance as is its usual practice at the third quarter update. Nevertheless, the upgrade please Deutsche Bank given a moderating retail market and a delay in the Sunshine Plaza redevelopment.

Management attributed the upgrade to the purchase of the Eclipse tower in Parramatta and a stronger contribution from office and logistics. Deutsche Bank retains a Hold rating and $5.22 target.

Target price is $5.22 Current Price is $5.14 Difference: $0.08
If GPT meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.36, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GPT as Neutral (3) -

At its Sep Q update, GPT raised 2018 dividend guidance to 3.5% from a prior 3.0%, ahead of the broker. Total retail sales improved across all categories, management noted, and supermarkets were strong. 

While the broker sees valuation as attractive, a limited balance sheet and a lack of value-add opportunities suggest a Neutral rating, despite possible corporate interest. Target unchanged at $5.47.

Target price is $5.47 Current Price is $5.14 Difference: $0.33
If GPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.36, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GPT as Hold (3) -

Retail sales growth, the company reports, was 3.4% for the year to September and ahead of Ord Minnett's forecasts. This improvement reflects a broad uplift across sales categories and individual assets in the company's portfolio.

Ord Minnett notes Melbourne Central, the company's largest asset, continues to provide exceptionally strong growth from CBD trading, assisted by a lower Australian dollar that is driving increased tourism. Hold rating maintained. Target rises to $5.20 from $5.15.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $5.14 Difference: $0.06
If GPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.36, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ILU as Outperform (1) -

September quarter production was a little stronger than Credit Suisse estimated, although sales volumes were disappointing. The company suggests this is not a case of placing tonnage into the market but more because of soft operating conditions which restrained sales. This indicates the unwinding of inventory has mostly run its course, the broker observes.

Credit Suisse notes the strike at the company's operations in Sierra Leone marks the third significant event that has tarnished its foray into the region. The broker finds it hard to ignore the warning signals in end markets as well. Despite the challenging outlook, Credit Suisse notes there is upside to the stock's valuation and retains an Outperform rating and $12 target.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $7.92 Difference: $4.08
If ILU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.27, suggesting upside of 42.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ILU as Neutral (3) -

Iluka Resources' Sep Q featured a -16% miss on revenue expectations due to lower sales volumes across zircon and rutile. Realised prices were in line but the broker believes the rally in zircon prices may now be over, although there may yet be more upside for rutile.

Operational issues at Sierra Rutile are of concern and the broker has cut production forecasts for the project. Neutral retained, target falls to $9.00 from $10.80.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.92 Difference: $1.08
If ILU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.27, suggesting upside of 42.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Overweight (1) -

Production in the September quarter was in line with Morgan Stanley's estimates. While the ongoing strike at Sierra Rutile has reduced 2018 rutile guidance to 135,000t, synthetic rutile guidance has increased to 210-215,000t.

The broker notes the high-grade titanium feedstock market was tight in the quarter, with strong demand, and some customers are concerned that sufficient high-grade ore will be difficult to come by in 2019.

The broker maintains an Overweight rating and In-Line sector view. Target is $11.65.

Target price is $11.65 Current Price is $7.92 Difference: $3.73
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.27, suggesting upside of 42.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ILU as Buy (1) -

Production was down -5% in the September quarter and sales down -18%. This outcome was driven by depletion at Murray Basin and lower production from Sierra Rutile.

With both sales and production down this indicates to UBS that inventory is low and sales are being limited by production and not the market. Despite lower sales, revenue rose 18%. Full year guidance for Sierra Leone rutile is lowered to 135,000t, subject to the resolution of the strike action. However, strong run rates mean synthetic rutile production guidance is increased to 210-215,000t.

UBS maintains a Buy rating and $11.75 target.

Target price is $11.75 Current Price is $7.92 Difference: $3.83
If ILU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.27, suggesting upside of 42.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MGX as Outperform (1) -

Mt Gibson's mid-west operations posted a solid Sep Q performance ahead of expected closure in the Dec Q and final sales in the March Q. The Koolan Island restart is on track and first sales are expected in the March Q.

Koolan high grade ore should attract strong premiums, the broker suggests, and were the broker to use current spot iron ore as its forecast, valuation would rise by 46%. Outperform and 60c target retained.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.11
If MGX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MYR as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -

Ord Minnett notes, having toured the company's Southland store, a greater emphasis on gifting, discounting discipline and operating earnings.

Given the share price performance since the FY18 result, and despite a recent retracement, the broker believes valuation support has reduced, leading to a downgrade to Lighten from Hold. Target is $0.43.

Target price is $0.43 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If MYR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.39, suggesting downside of -19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NAM as Hold (3) -

The company has reported a firm first half result, which Morgans observes was underpinned by a larger cotton crop. Yet prolonged dry conditions and reduced dam levels will materially reduce the size of the 2019 crop (FY20).

As a result, the broker makes material downgrades to forecasts and believes the share price will remain under pressure until the seasons improve. The broker maintains a Hold rating and reduces the target to $0.39 from $0.51.

Target price is $0.39 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If NAM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in February.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NCK as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Nick Scali 's Sep Q update showed sales are keeping pace and the retailer is outperforming peers, Macquarie notes, but cyclical risk is to the downside as the housing market slows and the lower A$ is expected to weigh on margins.

Internal initiatives have strengthened the operating model but sentiment will remain weak, the broker believes, given the housing downturn. Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform, target falls to $5.70 from $7.50.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $5.40 Difference: $0.3
If NCK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NCM as Buy (1) -

The September quarter update was disappointing, but Citi analysts point out the slowdown at Lihir was planned while outperformance at Cadia is good news.

They acknowledge Telfer remains a problem. Ahead of the investor briefing, Citi sticks with a Buy rating. Target is reduced to $24.40 from $26.20.

Target price is $24.40 Current Price is $21.46 Difference: $2.94
If NCM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.13, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NCM as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse was disappointed with the September quarter amid unplanned disruptions across all operations that affected a recovery in production. Yet, FY19 guidance has been sustained. The broker acknowledges a recovery at Cadia has marginally improved output but Lihir disappointed materially.

Credit Suisse maintains a Neutral rating and $20.30 target. The broker also notes Telfer continues to bleed cash and weaker production has meant costs have blown out. Gosowong was also weaker because of a power outage.

Target price is $20.30 Current Price is $21.46 Difference: minus $1.16 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.13, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NCM as Underperform (5) -

Newcrest's Sep Q numbers show gold/copper production missing the broker by -12% and -4%. Cadia improved a little, the broker notes, but outages hit Lihir and Telfer costs remain elevated. FY19 production guidance has nevertheless been retained.

This would require improved performance at both Lihir and Gosowong, the broker notes, while Telfer's future looks tough given cash burn at current gold prices. Underperform and $16 target retained.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $21.46 Difference: minus $5.46 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.13, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NCM as Equal-weight (3) -

September quarter production was softer than Morgan Stanley estimated with the miss coming from Lihir. The company expects a stronger second half and guidance has been maintained. Morgan Stanley expects 974,000 ounces in FY19.

Cadia production was 10% above the broker's estimates, with treated tonnage lifting 31% after the tailings-related stoppage in the June quarter.

Equal-weight rating. Target is $19.75. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $19.75 Current Price is $21.46 Difference: minus $1.71 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.13, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NCM as Accumulate (2) -

September quarter production was -10% below Ord Minnett's estimates because of a planned downtime related to issues at both the Telfer and Lihir mines. Costs were higher than expected because of the lower production.

The most material catalysts, the broker believes, are cash flow and de-gearing but an update on these metrics is not likely until the first half result. Still, the broker remains comfortable there are no longer-term issues for the company. Accumulate rating and $22.50 target maintained.

Target price is $22.50 Current Price is $21.46 Difference: $1.04
If NCM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.13, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NCM as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

UBS reduces the discount rate used to value Newcrest Mining. The broker acknowledges that valuing the stock with a -10% discount rate can undervalue the long mine life at the three key assets and now uses a -5% discount, upgrading to Neutral from Sell. Target is raised to $22.00 from $14.30.

Nevertheless, the broker considers production and earnings momentum is worrying as this will peak in the next two years because of the grade decline at Cadia before Golpu enters production in the mid 2020s. Golpu will also require significant expenditure prior to first production.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $21.46 Difference: $0.54
If NCM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.13, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PPH as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett believes the business is doing an exceptional job increasing its share among large churches but the mid-market segment is proving harder than expected.

The broker continues to envisage a number of positive catalysts over the next few months, including an acceleration in second half revenue growth ahead of Christmas and cash break-even by the end of 2018.

Buy rating maintained. Target is lowered to $4.03 from $4.32.

Target price is $4.03 Current Price is $3.26 Difference: $0.77
If PPH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates SGP as Buy (1) -

Stockland has reaffirmed guidance for distributions per security of 27.6c. Despite a slowing in the residential market management has reaffirmed that over 6000 settlements will occur in FY19 with operating profit margins of around 18%.

The company is highly exposed to the non-metro sub-regional market and will be impacted by the slowdown in residential, but Deutsche Bank believes the stock is cheap relative to peers, maintaining a Buy rating and $4.62 target.

Target price is $4.62 Current Price is $3.73 Difference: $0.89
If SGP meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.30, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGP as Neutral (3) -

Funds from operations growth guidance of 5-7% for FY19 was reaffirmed at Stockland's AGM, as was operational guidance. The slowing housing market and tighter credit conditions are having their effect, the broker notes, with net deposits down -16% in the quarter and -23% year on year.

Downside risks remain for residential and retail but the recent sell-off means value is not demanding, the broker suggests. Neutral and $4.29 target retained.

Target price is $4.29 Current Price is $3.73 Difference: $0.56
If SGP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.30, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SGP as Accumulate (2) -

Stockland has reiterated FY19 guidance for 4% growth in distributions per security. The update was fairly soft, Ord Minnett observes, with a notable slowing in residential sales and a modest uptick in retail sales.

The broker believes the stock is trading on cheap multiples but acknowledges a lack of catalysts to turn the performance around. Accumulate rating maintained. Target is reduced to $4.40 from $4.80.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.73 Difference: $0.67
If SGP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.30, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGP as Sell (5) -

A slowdown in residential deposits versus expectations is seen supporting softer growth in free funds from operations in FY20/21. The company is guiding to FFO growth of 5-7% in FY19 while UBS expects this to slow to 0-1% in FY20/21.

The broker suggests weakening market volumes will more than offset market share gains, price growth and embedded margins. The broker retains a Sell rating to reflect the deteriorating growth profile, the challenged retail portfolio and a stretched balance sheet. Target is $4.08.

Target price is $4.08 Current Price is $3.73 Difference: $0.35
If SGP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.30, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUL as Buy (1) -

The company's trading update indicates a slowing in sales momentum is upon most businesses, while freshly acquired Macpac shows ongoing improvement, point out analysts at Citi.

The departure of the CEO, after 12 years at the helm, was not well received, they add. Citi points out the history of companies with long standing CEOs leaving the business has been mixed. Buy maintained.

Target price is $10.90 Current Price is $7.46 Difference: $3.44
If SUL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.51, suggesting upside of 27.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SUL as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

The company provided a subdued trading update and indicated its CEO would step down in the first half of 2019. Like-for-like sales growth slowed through the past 10 weeks and Credit Suisse suspects additional margin pressure is being experienced in an increasingly difficult retail environment.

The broker upgrades to Neutral from Underperform on valuation grounds because of the slump in the share price but notes the potential for further disappointment in the near term. Target is $8.39.

Target price is $8.39 Current Price is $7.46 Difference: $0.93
If SUL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.51, suggesting upside of 27.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates SUL as Hold (3) -

The AGM update has highlighted slowing growth in comparable business across the three main divisions. Macpac was the exception, posting growth of 8.4%. The trend is largely as Deutsche Bank expected.

Hold rating maintained. Target is $10.20.

Target price is $10.20 Current Price is $7.46 Difference: $2.74
If SUL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.51, suggesting upside of 27.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SUL as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Super Retail's sales growth in the Sep Q was in line with expectation. Auto was solid as usual, Rebel was good, Macpac was strong and, as usual, BCF brought the team down.

Management commentary was cautious nonetheless, Macquarie notes, suggesting signs of weakening consumer sentiment and forcing the need to balance sales growth and manage margins. Investor sentiment is likely to remain cautious with regard the retail sector, and the departure of the CEO adds to uncertainty.

Macquarie downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Target falls to $8.70 from $10.50.

Target price is $8.70 Current Price is $7.46 Difference: $1.24
If SUL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.51, suggesting upside of 27.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUL as Equal-weight (3) -

The company's update at the AGM implies a slowdown occurred during the first six weeks of FY19. Morgan Stanley believes the cautious statement regarding retail consumption signals impending margin pressure.

The CEO will retire in the June quarter 2019 and the broker does not expect the Macpac acquisition to be fully bedded down before then. Equal-weight rating. Target is $9.60. Industry View: Cautious.

Target price is $9.60 Current Price is $7.46 Difference: $2.14
If SUL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.51, suggesting upside of 27.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SUL as Add (1) -

The company's AGM update indicates like-for-like sales growth has slowed over recent weeks, with the exception of Macpac. Morgans believes commentary regarding balancing the top line and margins over the key Christmas trading period, given a more cautious consumer, has spooked the market.

While the stock is unlikely to outperform in the short term the broker still envisages value is solid and maintains an Add rating. Target is reduced to $9.48 from $10.44.

Target price is $9.48 Current Price is $7.46 Difference: $2.02
If SUL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.51, suggesting upside of 27.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SUL as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett believes the reaction in the share price to the AGM update is too severe, and upgrades to Accumulate from Hold. Target is unchanged at $9.50.

The broker believes Super Retail is anchored by a strong automotive business which continues to deliver. Sports is also being assisted by cost savings from the incorporation of Amart into Rebel, while in outdoor the Macpac acquisition is performing strongly.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $7.46 Difference: $2.04
If SUL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.51, suggesting upside of 27.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SUL as Neutral (3) -

All divisions grew like-for-like sales in the first weeks of FY19, with Super Cheap Auto up 3.1%, Rebel up 2.4% and BCF up 2.4%. The main positive was Macpac with growth accelerating to 8.4%. The company has signalled it will be more careful in balancing sales and margin as it moves into Christmas, given a cautious consumer.

UBS believes near-term earnings risk is increased, particularly if the current trends in consumer conditions continue, and the departure of the company's CEO is elevating the execution risk. Neutral rating and $9.30 target maintained.

Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $7.46 Difference: $1.84
If SUL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.51, suggesting upside of 27.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SVW as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett observes the stock has fallen -22% since the beginning of October and the most recent weakness has followed the sell-off in Caterpillar in the US after the quarterly results. Yet the Caterpillar commentary regarding strong aftermarket demand should actually be a positive for Seven Group's WesTrac operation, one of the world's largest Caterpillar dealers.

Ord Minnett concludes that the market reaction was more a function of high expectations, exaggerated by already weak equity markets. Accumulate rating and $24.07 target maintained.

Target price is $24.07 Current Price is $17.45 Difference: $6.62
If SVW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.47, suggesting upside of 34.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SVW as Buy (1) -

UBS believes momentum is solid at WesTrac, given the latest data on dealer sales. The broker updates forecasts for Seven Group following conversion of TELYS4 securities into ordinary shares, which is mildly accretive.

The broker believes the business provides leverage to east coast infrastructure investment through Coates Hire and the normalisation of Australian mining equipment maintenance following several years of underinvestment, through WesTrac.

Buy rating reiterated. Target is reduced to $24 from $25.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $17.45 Difference: $6.55
If SVW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.47, suggesting upside of 34.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SXY as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

September quarter production grew 4% on the prior quarter but was below Ord Minnett's estimates, as a higher contribution from growth projects was forecast. The company has announced two commercial oil discoveries as part of the 10-well Cooper Basin campaign.

The stock is trading in line with the broker's valuation and the rating is upgraded to Hold from Lighten. Target is unchanged at $0.47.

Target price is $0.47 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0.06
If SXY meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.50, suggesting upside of 22.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TPM as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

Ord Minnett reviews its investment case and finds both upside and downside risk to its calculations. Upside would come from the fixed wireless broadband opportunity or lower wholesale NBN costs.

This is offset by the risk that the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission blocks the merger with Vodafone Australia. The broker upgrades to Hold from Lighten as the stock is trading below the unchanged target of $7.90.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $7.61 Difference: $0.29
If TPM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.81, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Sell (5) -

The trading update has revealed FY19 has made a rather weak start and Citi analysts wonder whether earnings risks are building.

The analysts point out, the value of Australian bottled red wine exports to China fell -24% in the September 2018 quarter. Compare this to one year ago, when growth was 106%.

Big growth numbers in the prior year imply the outlook is likely for flat growth at best in the quarters ahead, suggest the analysts. They retain a Sell rating.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $14.99 Difference: minus $0.49 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.24, suggesting upside of 21.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates TWE as Hold (3) -

Deutsche Bank notes exports to China slowed materially in the September quarter based on Wine Australia's report. Average price per case remains stable. China is of particular interest for investors in Treasury Wine and its business constitutes a large portion of the data.

Hold rating and $18 target maintained.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $14.99 Difference: $3.01
If TWE meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.24, suggesting upside of 21.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley suggests slower Australian wine exports growth to China is just a reflection of timing issues, and the earlier Chinese New Year should drive an acceleration in December. Wine Australia has noted depletion trends continue to be strong in China and this is a more accurate reflection of engagement with Australian wine.

Equal-weight rating and $20 target retained. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $14.99 Difference: $5.01
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.24, suggesting upside of 21.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WOR as Buy (1) -

Subsequent to the acquisition of the Jacob's Engineering businesses Ord Minnett adjusts forecasts. Net profit estimates increase by around 100% but earnings per share are broadly unchanged, with higher net profit offset by higher share count.

The broker notes the strategic rationale for the transaction but ultimately believes success will depend on the point in the cycle. Increased scale and scope should be positive should the cycle continue to improve. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $21.00 from $22.50.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $14.63 Difference: $6.37
If WOR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.34, suggesting upside of 32.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources