Australian Broker Call

Shaw and Partners rates AZY as Buy (1) -

Antipa Minerals has announced an updated Mineral Resource Estimate for the Minyari project, Shaw and Partners notes, with a rise in total gold to 2.5moz or 3moz AuEq, representing an increase of 100koz.

The company had a cash balance of $40m at the end of March with no debt.

The Buy, High Risk rating and $0.66 price target are maintained.

Target price is $0.66 Current Price is $0.64 Difference: $0.025
If AZY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BAP as Neutral (3) -

Citi analysts report they have become a little more optimistic, actually: less cautious, about Bapcor's outlook, having attended Wesfarmers' strategy day.

Bottom line: it is currently not Bunnings' strategy to build out a genuine new competitor for the likes of Bapcor.

Back to the strategy day, Bunnings has noted its expansion into auto has surprised on the upside in terms of traction with customers and suppliers, the analysts report, potentially suggesting it will be able to secure more key brands as the business grows.

Citi promises to keep a close watch on any further developments. Target $5.43 (we had $5.64). Neutral.

Target price is $5.43 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: $0.28
If BAP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.63, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CAT as Hold (3) -

Catapult International's FY25 result beat Bell Potter's forecast on all metrics except annual contract value (ACV), which was US$101.2m vs the broker's US$103.2m estimate.

Commentary identifies the highlight as the management EBITDA margin of 12.7% vs the broker's expectation of 12.0%.

The company's guidance was in line with expectations, including re-iteration of the EBITDA margin goal of 30% when revenue reaches US$200m.

The broker made minor cuts to FY26-27 revenue forecasts on the ACV miss, but lifted EBITDA margin estimates. Hold. Target rises to $5.00 from $4.40.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.89 Difference: $0.11
If CAT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.35, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CAT as Buy (1) -

UBS notes Catapult International reported a robust FY25 earnings result, including recurring subscription revenue growth of 20%, annual contract value growth of 18%, and circa 20% excluding Russia.

Annual contract value was boosted by a 10% lift in pro teams under contract, the broker details, along with a 53% rise in cross-sold video teams.

The one-off exit from Russia largely accounted for the uplift in churn to 4.8% in 2H25, with underlying churn viewed as acceptable at below 4%.

UBS stresses 2H25 underlying earnings (EBITDA) margins were 56%, lifting overall margins to 14.5% from 10.8% in 2H24.

The analyst likes the momentum of the business, with an ongoing Buy rating. Target price moves up to $5.70 from $5.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $4.89 Difference: $0.81
If CAT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.35, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates CBO as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners visited Cobram Estate Olives' Boort olive grove, which is around 3,500ha, alongside the company's bottling facility in Victoria.

The analyst emphasises the "state-of-the-art" assets and the competitive advantage afforded to Cobram through its strategic focus on agriscience and creating a business that can generate the lowest-cost and highest-quality production.

Cobram's yields per hectare are circa nine times higher than the global average, and the Boort facility is one of the largest mills, processing 100 tonnes per hour.

Shaw and Partners estimates tree maturity will add 30% to the company's volumes through to FY30. No change to Buy rating and $2.25 target price.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $1.85 Difference: $0.4
If CBO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.14, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DDR as Buy (1) -

Dicker Data's trading update pointed to lower than expected profit for the first four months of 2025, including more robust sales offset by a slant to lower-margin enterprise and AI deals, UBS notes.

The broker acknowledges the skew to enterprise deals in the PC cycle refresh has impacted gross margins, which was not anticipated.

Sales growth is expected to normalise to 4% in May–June from 17% in January–April, with a rise of 5% in 2H25 due to higher comps. Gross margins should recover to 9.5% from 9.1% as the mix normalises.

Profit before tax growth for 2025 is flagged at 2%, with margins lowered to 3.2% from 3.5%. Sales growth for 2026 has been tempered to 5% with improving margins.

Target price slips to $9.30 from $10.20. Buy rating maintained, as the stock is viewed as reasonably priced for this stage in the interest rate cycle.

Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $8.10 Difference: $1.2
If DDR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DXI as Hold (3) -

Dexus Industria REIT announced an upgrade to FY25 guidance, mainly driven by lower interest costs and higher income from Jandakot Airport.

The REIT now expects FFO/share of 18.1c compared with the previous forecast of 17.8c, and Bell Potter's estimate of 17.9c.

The broker lifted its forecasts to align with the guidance.

Hold. Target rises to $2.95 from $2.90.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: $0.17
If DXI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.91, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IAG as Buy (1) -

Following the announcement earlier this morning the ACCC will not oppose the acquisition of RACQ Insurance, Citi analysts comment the decision is largely as expected.

This by no means implies it should not be seen as a positive for Insurance Australia Group with the impact of the transaction already factored into the broker's modeling.

Commentary adds today's verdict may also be seen as boding well for the approval of the other proposed transaction with RAC in WA.

Citi analysts do highlight they also see a number of warning signs in today's judgement. In short, they see greater risk of the WA proposal being stopped than the RACQI judgement published today.

Target$10. Buy.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.52 Difference: $1.48
If IAG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.75, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHX as Neutral (3) -

James Hardie Industries' soft 4Q result was expected due to macro factors, but Citi is surprised by the miss in expectations in other things that were within management's control.

These items include market share growth, high value product mix and zero harm policy. The broker reckons this will add to investor concerns ahead of the July/August vote.

The broker's initial view after the FY25 result was adjusted earnings (EBIT) of US$863m and profit of US$644m were broadly in line with its own forecasts.

Fourth-quarter earnings missed the broker's forecast by circa -4%, with sequential declines in volume, sales and profit during a seasonally stronger period. Europe was the only region to exceed expectations.

The broker flagged lack of disclosure around long-term incentives and notes missed product mix and incentive targets, adding uncertainty amid a pending corporate deal.

The analyst downgraded FY26-27 forecasts following the result. Neutral. Target cut to $41.50 from $43.20.

Target price is $41.50 Current Price is $36.11 Difference: $5.39
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $48.76, suggesting upside of 34.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JHX as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie lowers the target price for James Hardie Industries to $39.80 from $40.20 and retains a Neutral rating following a slightly weaker-than-expected FY25 result, with North America driving the shortfall.

FY25 adjusted earnings of US$644m marginally exceeded guidance, though North American performance disappointed due to weaker multi-family and interiors volumes, highlights the analyst. Earnings (EBIT) margins fell -350bps year-on-year to 28.2%.

The broker highlights a softer FY26 outlook, as management now guides for low single-digit growth in both revenue and earnings (EBITDA), reflecting deteriorating macro conditions and US mortgage rates near 7%.

Macquarie reduces its FY26-28 earnings forecasts by between -6.8-8.4%, citing delayed North American recovery and weaker pricing assumptions.

Target price is $39.80 Current Price is $36.11 Difference: $3.69
If JHX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $48.76, suggesting upside of 34.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JHX as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes James Hardie Industries' 4Q result was in line with expectations. Volumes for the North American fiber cement division were in line, but the margin missed consensus by -61bps.

The company's guidance pointed to challenging markets but optimism it will grow in all markets.

The broker notes FY26 guidance for low single-digit growth appears -4% below consensus, making it likely forecasts could move lower.

Overweight. Target cut to $53 from $55.

Target price is $53.00 Current Price is $36.11 Difference: $16.89
If JHX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $48.76, suggesting upside of 34.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JHX as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett lowers its target price for James Hardie to $40.00 from $41.00 and maintains a Hold rating, citing weaker-than-expected FY26 guidance and elevated gearing.

Management expects softer earnings due to a contracting US repair and remodel market and flat new build activity, alongside higher raw material costs..

The broker is particularly concerned about the failure to meet internal primary demand growth targets in the North American fibre cement segment, which will limit performance benefits in FY26.

While forecasts have been reduced, these are mostly offset by upgrades to Asia-Pacific and Europe, resulting in a modest 1% EPS upgrade for FY26, and slight downgrades for FY27 and FY28.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $36.11 Difference: $3.89
If JHX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $48.76, suggesting upside of 34.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JHX as Buy (1) -

Expanding on the first take, UBS highlights housing uncertainty continues to impact James Hardie Industries' outlook.

A major takeaway from the company's update is management’s expectation for end-market volumes to decline in FY26, with the renovation, remodelling and repair (RRR) market expected to contract more than new construction.

UBS notes a lower propensity for discretionary spending on re-modelling projects in North America, as indicated by Home Depot, due to interest rate pressures.

Buy. Target $50.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $36.11 Difference: $13.89
If JHX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $48.76, suggesting upside of 34.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates KGN as Hold (3) -

Kogan.com's trading update for the Jan-Apr period revealed 20% y/y gross sales growth and beat both Bell Potter and consensus forecasts. 

The disappointment came via a miss at the adjusted EBITDA line due mainly to marketing expenses.

The broker believes the company's margins will remain under pressure as higher sales will continue to be heavily dependent on marketing investment.

The analyst cut net profit forecasts by -14% for FY25 and -11% for FY26. Hold. Target trimmed to $4.50 from $5.00.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.02 Difference: $0.48
If KGN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.70, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LNW as Add (1) -

At the investor day, Light & Wonder articulated an adjusted EBITDA goal of US$2bn and adjusted EPS of US$10.55 by 2028. Both were over 10% higher than Morgans' forecast.

The broker recaps the group has generated 13% compounded annual growth since its last event in 2022 and 17% adjusted EBITDA growth, while lowering leverage and without additional capital.

The analyst believes the company will achieve the ambitious target, with upside potential from Dragon Train once the litigation uncertainty resolves.

Adjusted EBITDA forecasts raised by an average 3% across FY26-28. Add. Target rises to $200 from $193.

Target price is $200.00 Current Price is $132.00 Difference: $68
If LNW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $193.20, suggesting upside of 49.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LNW as Buy (1) -

Light & Wonder presented three major factors at its Investor Day, UBS reports.

The company's new target is for US$2bn in 2026 adjusted earnings (EBITDA), which sits above the broker's estimate of US$1.77bn, implying a compound average growth rate of around 10% from 2024, and the existing 2025 target.

In land-based, management is aiming for 4 percentage points of market share gains in Gaming by 2028 in North America, with ongoing expansion in adjacent markets such as Nebraska, the EU, and Canada, including charitable gaming via Grover.

Light & Wonder also confirmed it is on track for 2025 adjusted earnings (EBITDA) of US$1.4bn and US$1.36bn pre-Grover. There is no change to the gearing target of 2.5x–3.5x, UBS states.

UBS observes the 2028 earnings target implies upgrades to consensus of 10%-15% and is "bullish," though the bound target is more in line. Buy rated with $192 target price.

Target price is $192.00 Current Price is $132.00 Difference: $60
If LNW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $193.20, suggesting upside of 49.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates MMI as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners points to rising Chinese demand for bauxite, with April data showing a lift in monthly Chinese imports above 20mt for the first time, a rise of 45% on a year earlier.

Year-to-date imports are up 34% to 67.7mt, with the broker estimating 2025 imports of 180mt, a rise of 13% on 2024, which now seems conservative.

Noting the revocation of mining licences in Guinea, the analyst highlights ongoing monitoring of Guinea export volumes as the country moves into the wet season, which usually lowers production by -15% to -20%.

Shaw and Partners notes the Metro Mining CEO will be looking to negotiate prices for the September quarter, and the above-mentioned factors could be positive for the pricing outcome.

Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at 17c.

Target price is $0.17 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.12
If MMI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 240% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NCK as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie sees upside for Nick Scali from UK margin expansion and store refurbishment progress.

Foot traffic rebounded in February and March after a weak January, notes the broker, with A&NZ written sales orders down -8.5% year-on-year, though recovering to up 5% in the final week of the month.

Gross margins in the UK improved by 410bps to 45.1% post-acquisition, with the analyst forecasting a rise to 58% in FY27, exceeding consensus forecasts of 55%. It's felt the higher margin will be driven by increased delivery of Nick Scali product.

Nine UK stores have been refurbished under the Nick Scali brand, with another three expected in H2. Re-branded sites are outperforming legacy stores in sales, suggesting to Macquarie further upside from the rollout.

Outperform rating and $19.90 target are maintained.

Target price is $19.90 Current Price is $18.82 Difference: $1.08
If NCK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.35, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHF as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie retains an Underperform rating on nib holdings and keeps the target price at $5.55, flagging risks to earnings from potential regulatory changes in international health insurance commissions.

A government review could impose a circa 12% cap on commissions paid to third-party student agents, down from current levels of 30-40%, observes the broker.

This imposes a potential structural risk to the IIHI division, according to the analyst, which relies heavily on sales agents, especially in India.

Students accounted for around 33% of revenue and 2.2% of group operating profit in FY24, highlights Macquarie.

Target price is $5.55 Current Price is $6.90 Difference: minus $1.35 (current price is over target).
If NHF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.89, suggesting upside of 0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NUF as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter has downgraded the target price for Nufarm to $3.45 from $4.35 as it now values the company based on a "break-up scenario" following the announcement of a review of the Seed Technology platform.

The 1H25 results missed the broker's forecasts on all key indicators, and the broker describes net profit of $38.5m vs its $69.0m forecast as a result of "shockingly weak" performance from the Seed business.

The analyst downgraded FY25 EBITDA forecasts by -23% and FY26 by -16%, mainly on lowered forecasts for the Seed business.

Buy maintained.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $2.81 Difference: $0.64
If NUF meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting upside of 40.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NUF as Sell (5) -

Citi highlights the market will remain focused on the outcomes of Nufarm's Seed Technology business review announced at the 1H25 results. The business was once regarded as a growth engine for the company.

The broker believes the company will find it challenging to sell parts of the business, except hybrid seeds.

The analyst's key concern is elevated leverage, which could trend higher in 1H26, from 4.5x in 1H, if there is no meaningful improvement in the Seed Technology business.

Sell. Target trimmed to $2.60 from $3.75.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.81 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If NUF meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting upside of 40.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NUF as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie lowers its target price for Nufarm to $3.20 from $4.11 and maintains a Neutral rating following a material earnings miss in the higher-value Seeds segment.

Underlying profit of $39m was well below the broker’s $62m forecast, driven by a -46% decline in Seeds earnings (EBITDA) due to oversupplied fish oil markets and drier Australian weather. Inventory was written-down by -$28m.

Balance sheet concerns have intensified, highlights the broker, and management now guides a slower path to its gearing target, extended into FY26.

A review into the Seeds business has begun, with all options on the table. A partial or full sale could unlock value and reduce balance sheet risk, but is expected to take six months or more, cautions the analyst.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.81 Difference: $0.39
If NUF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting upside of 40.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NUF as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley highlights Nufarm's 1H25 EBITDA missed consensus by -15% and EBIT by -27%, and leverage worsened further to 4.5x.

The Seed Technology business missed consensus by -70% due to low fish oil prices.

The broker reckons the Seed Technology review may unlock some value for the company, but the timing is "odd" after poor outcomes in 1H and a challenging outlook.

Equal-weight. Target price $3.90.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $2.81 Difference: $1.09
If NUF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting upside of 40.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NXT as Buy (1) -

UBS takes a deep dive into the valuation breakdown for NextDC, which investors are "commonly" asking about.

The analyst emphasises major capital has been used on fitting out sites in preparation for future MW (data centres) and on building out the company's land bank.

By the end of FY25, NextDC will have deployed an estimated circa -$2.6bn on future sites and MW/build and fit-out. When adjusted for land bank holding costs, the valuation on an EV/EBITDA basis retreats to 28.7x from 42.5x at face value.

UBS states contracted MW accounts for 100% of revenue growth over the next three years and 57% over five years. The broker estimates at current levels investors are paying an EV/EBITDA multiple of 19.3x, which is –8% below the 21x paid for AirTrunk.

Maintain Buy rating and $19.80 target price.

Target price is $19.80 Current Price is $13.30 Difference: $6.5
If NXT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.50, suggesting upside of 50.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RMD as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett maintains a Buy rating on ResMed and a target price of $46.50, following a review of Phase 3 trial results for pharmaceutical company Apnimed’s AD109 sleep apnoea pill.

The broker believes AD109 is likely to serve as a complementary option for patients with mild-to-moderate sleep apnoea who struggle with CPAP use, rather than replacing CPAP therapy.

While the trial met its primary goals, including improvement in the apnoea-hypopnea index, the magnitude of benefit was not disclosed and no new safety concerns were reported, notes the analyst.

A formal new drug application for AD109 is expected to be filed with the FDA in early 2026, with full trial results due later in 2025.

Target price is $46.50 Current Price is $38.65 Difference: $7.85
If RMD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.64, suggesting upside of 19.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RRL as Hold (3) -

Regis Resources' mineral resource and ore reserve update as of end-2024 was positive, Bell Potter highlights, with increases in both group mineral resources and reserves, even after accounting for mining depletions.

The broker notes open pit and underground additions at Duketon, and underground at Tropicana contributed to the increases. There is potential for more additions from other high-grade drilling results.

The analyst has incorporated longer mine lives into forecasts to 2031 for Duketon and 2035 for Tropicana.

Hold. Target rises to $4.72 from $4.57.

Target price is $4.72 Current Price is $4.86 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.13, suggesting downside of -17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SEK as Buy (1) -

UBS views Seek's trading update as positive, with the company now expecting to achieve the upper half of previous revenue, earnings (EBITDA), and profit guidance, which is expected to result in consensus profit upgrades of around 1%–2%, the analyst explains.

The broker notes the EBITDA forecast for FY25 sits at the midpoint of management's guidance range of $460m.

In A&NZ, an upgrade in ad tiers is expected to support low double-digit yield growth, and the decline in job ad volumes has continued to plateau in recent months, UBS details.

Asia is anticipated to be in line with the previous year, while interest costs are flagged as lower than earlier guidance at -$75m, due to the sell-down in Employment Hero.

Buy rating with $30.10 target retained.

Target price is $30.10 Current Price is $23.69 Difference: $6.41
If SEK meets the UBS target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.81, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGH as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie raises its target price for SGH Ltd to $59.25 from $56.10 and maintains an Outperform rating following the company's investor day and reaffirmation of high single-digit earnings (EBIT) growth guidance for FY25.

WesTrac’s outlook remains strong despite part price deflation, highlights the analyst, while Boral is seeing improved price realisation and efficiencies with optimism around residential recovery.

The broker highlights incremental confidence in Coates’ growth strategy through targeted service offerings and notes that Crux (gas) could add circa $70m in earnings once operational.

Target price is $59.25 Current Price is $52.89 Difference: $6.36
If SGH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $57.44, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGH as Buy (1) -

At SGH Ltd's investor day, the company confirmed the outlook for Industrial Services remains strong over the medium to long term due to positive trends across infrastructure and residential construction.

WesTrac is expected to be supported by ageing fleets and an expanding installed machine base, underpinning services demand and activity.

SGH Ltd continues to anticipate robust demand across mining end markets including coal, iron ore, and gold, as well as infrastructure development and an improving housing outlook.

Coates is being supported by a large pipeline of construction activity, and price realisation for Boral remains "strong".

Management re-iterated earnings before interest and tax guidance for FY25, with headwinds noted for Caterpillar parts pricing and soft conditions in Victoria.

Buy rated. Target price rises to $60 from $58.65.

Target price is $60.00 Current Price is $52.89 Difference: $7.11
If SGH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $57.44, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SKT as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes SKY Network Television is one of the most undervalued stocks on the New Zealand market.

The broker raises its target to NZ$3.56 from NZ$3.03 and maintains an Outperform rating, citing strong dividend resilience despite macroeconomic pressures.

While management is expected to deliver at the low end of FY25 guidance due to soft subscriber trends and weak consumer demand, the broker highlights no change to the dividend outlook.

Retention of key rugby rights is expected to be finalised before the FY25 result, potentially unlocking further dividend upside and a share price re-rating, explains Macquarie.

Current Price is $2.35. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SYR as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

A truce on tariffs has eased tensions around critical mineral supply security, while synthetic graphite remains the dominant material in the battery market, highlights Macquarie.

The broker raises its target for Syrah Resources by 11% to 30c after changes in production restart, price realisation, and funding assumptions. Macquarie downgrades to Neutral from Outperform following recent share price strength.

Synthetic graphite remains in oversupply, cautions the analyst, with China maintaining dominance in the battery-grade market,  a dynamic that is likely to cap graphite price upside.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: minus $0.035 (current price is over target).
If SYR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.41, suggesting upside of 22.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TLG as Outperform (1) -

A truce on tariffs has eased tensions around critical mineral supply security, while synthetic graphite remains the dominant material in the battery market, highlights Macquarie.

Talga Group has raised $10m at 40c per share to fund pre-FID work at the Vittangi Anode project and scale Talnode-C production.

Management has signed a fixed-price deal to supply circa 3kt of Talnode-C to Nyobolt over four years, initially from its demo plant in Lulea, with commercial production expected from 2026 pending FID.

While the Nyobolt agreement is encouraging, the broker remains cautious on demand due to competitive pressure from BYD’s 1MW fast-charging platform and battery-swapping tech from Nio and SAIC.

First production from Vittangi has been delayed, and the broker's target price has been reduced by -17% to 50c following the equity raise.

Unchanged Outperform rating.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.085
If TLG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TWE as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Ord Minnett lowers its target price for Treasury Wine Estates to $9.50 from $12.00 and downgrades to Hold from Buy, citing mounting earnings headwinds.

The broker is sceptical new CEO Sam Fischer can achieve mid-teen earnings growth in the Penfolds division, particularly with persistent weakness in the US wine market.

Restocking momentum in China is expected to taper off, while soft consumer demand and unresolved US tariffs add further pressure to margins, according to the analyst.

Ord Minnett's EPS forecasts have been cut by -4.8% for FY25, -13.0% for FY26 and -15.5% for FY27, reflecting a weaker sales outlook and pricing constraints into FY26.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $8.54 Difference: $0.96
If TWE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.54, suggesting upside of 36.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TWR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights Tower's earnings resilience and potential upside from under-utilised large-loss allowances.

Despite macroeconomic headwinds, the broker observes management reaffirmed FY25 guidance, including a combined operating ratio of 82-84% and large losses capped at -NZ$50m.

Only -NZ$7m had been incurred year-to-date, suggesting to the analyst earnings risk is skewed to the upside.

An NZ8c interim dividend signals strong capital management, and the broker sees potential for a special dividend in H2, with the solvency ratio sitting at 164% post-payout.

Macquarie raises its target price to NZ$1.68 from NZ$1.58 and reiterates an Outperform rating.

Current Price is $1.40. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WES as Sell (5) -

At today's strategy day held by Wesfarmers, management guided to production for Wesfarmers Chemicals, Energy & Fertilisers' (WesCEF) 50% share of spodumene concentrate to be circa 140-150kt, down from prior guidance of between 150-170kt. 

At current pricing, FY25 losses are estimated at circa -$60m (prior implied guidance suggested -$48m), with greater losses in FY26 as the refinery ramp-up begins.

At first glance, Citi notes ongoing challenges at the Covalent lithium project due to weak commodity prices in the near term.

While operational improvements at Bunnings (e.g. new categories like EV charging and assisted living) and Kmart (via a new automated fulfilment centre in FY28) are positive, the broker sees the valuation as stretched.

Target price $61. Sell rating.

Target price is $61.00 Current Price is $84.06 Difference: minus $23.06 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $70.29, suggesting downside of -15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WJL as Hold (3) -

Morgans observes Webjet Group's FY25 result was in line with expectations, with higher margins and a strong balance sheet the highlights, but the mix was of poor quality. The broker notes downside risks remain for FY26.

The focus, however, is on interest in the company from two different investors, and the broker believes the company will likely be taken over.

BGH's proposal of $0.80/share has already been assessed by the company as materially undervaluation. There are reports Helloworld Travel ((HLO)) has increased its shareholding to 15.67% with purchases at $0.89/share.

The broker believes any offer has to be over $1.00 to be successful.

Hold. Target lifted to 90c from 65c.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.87 Difference: $0.03
If WJL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WJL as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett raises the target price for Webjet to $1.76 from $1.59 and maintains a Buy rating, citing strong fundamentals and heightened takeover interest.

Despite domestic airline duopoly pressures and high airfares, domestic volumes declined just -9% in FY25, while international volumes rose 11%, lifting revenue per booking, explains the analyst.

Normalised profit of $20.9m slightly beat the broker’s estimate of $19.9m.

Recent disclosures from BGH and Helloworld acquiring over 10% stakes suggest the company is now in play.

Webjet remains debt-free with around $120m in cash, positioning it well for strategic execution and providing a cushion for future growth or acquisition interest, suggests Ord Minnett.

Target price is $1.76 Current Price is $0.87 Difference: $0.89
If WJL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 102% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WOR as Add (1) -

Morgans notes Worley's update at a recent investor day revealed a stable outlook for the business despite global macro uncertainties. Contract backlogs rose $300m from December 2024 to $13bn by March.

The company reiterated FY25 earnings guidance for low double-digit EBITA growth but flagged a reduction in scope for the Venture Global contract as the company is doing some work in-house.

The broker cut FY26 EBITA forecast by-3% on slower growth expectation and after adjusting timing for revenue recognition from the Venture Global contract. 

Add. Target cut to $16.80 from $17.70.

Target price is $16.80 Current Price is $13.14 Difference: $3.66
If WOR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.91, suggesting upside of 37.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources