Australian Broker Call
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February 14, 2022
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
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ALG ARDENT LEISURE GROUP LIMITED
Travel, Leisure & Tourism
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Overnight Price: $1.39
Citi rates ALG as Buy (1) -
Momentum suggests an improving outlook for Ardent Leisure Group's outlook following weakness in December and January. Citi noted the slump is largely expected given coid surges and difficult comparables with key holidays falling on a Friday and Saturday.
Looking ahead the broker expects inflationary pressures to factor into results, with increasing food and labour costs likely to impact. Citi expects price increases will be an option to offset pressures.
The Buy rating and target price of $1.80 are retained.
Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.39 Difference: $0.41
If ALG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.10 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.80 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates ARF as Neutral (3) -
Arena REIT's earnings were broadly in line with Macquarie. FY22 dividend guidance has been upgraded by 1%, reflecting underlying portfolio strength. Operational metrics are indicative of solid fundamentals underpinning the Early Learning Centre sub-sector.
The REIT's rent review structure will drive growth in the medium term, the broker suggests. Valuation is a bit rich, but balancing out strong fundamentals and robust earnings growth, the broker retains Neutral. Target rises to $4.90 from $4.89.
Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.90 Difference: $0
If ARF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.27, suggesting downside of -10.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 16.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.6, implying annual growth of -60.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.6. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.60 cents and EPS of 17.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of 6.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates ARF as Equal-weight (3) -
Arena REIT reported a 1H profit and dividend broadly in-line with Morgan Stanley's forecast. Management increased FY22 DPS guidance to 16cpu from15.8cpu, versus the broker's forecast for 15.9cpu.
The analyst considers the REIT one of the better inflation hedges in the sector, with more than 75% of FY22/23 leases incorporating the higher of CPI or 3% annual reviews.
The Equal Weight rating and $4.18 target are retained. Industry view: In-line.
Target price is $4.18 Current Price is $4.90 Difference: minus $0.72 (current price is over target).
If ARF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.27, suggesting downside of -10.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 15.90 cents and EPS of 16.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.6, implying annual growth of -60.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.6. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.90 cents and EPS of 17.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of 6.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
BBN BABY BUNTING GROUP LIMITED
Apparel & Footwear
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Overnight Price: $5.27
Citi rates BBN as Buy (1) -
Baby Bunting Group continues to explore growth opportunities and has suggested another upgrade to its current store expansion target of more than 110 locations, but Citi warns at its current pace the existing target won't be reached for around 6 years.
Low presence in the clothing, food and nappies categories offer growth potential, and increased penetration of these categories could allow market share gains. The company appears well placed to outperform the small cap retail sector given a strong growth outlook.
The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $6.22 from $6.11.
Target price is $6.22 Current Price is $5.27 Difference: $0.95
If BBN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.39, suggesting upside of 23.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 16.40 cents and EPS of 21.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.5, implying annual growth of 65.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.0. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 19.40 cents and EPS of 25.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of 17.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates BBN as Outperform (1) -
Baby Bunting's first half was in line with Macquarie, with 10% sales growth underpinned by online outperformance. Margins growth is supported by a continued increase in private label and exclusive product sales.
The second half has started well, and store network growth targets remain unchanged. The broker retains Outperform, supported by current performance and investment to support long-term growth.
Target rises to $6.21 from $6.11.
Target price is $6.21 Current Price is $5.27 Difference: $0.94
If BBN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.39, suggesting upside of 23.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 15.80 cents and EPS of 21.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.5, implying annual growth of 65.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.0. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.80 cents and EPS of 24.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of 17.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates BBN as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley assesses another high-quality (1H) result for Baby Bunting which was well ahead of consensus. Momentum into the 2H was also considered impressive.
The gross profit and gross margin (a beat versus the broker's estimates) demonstrated the benefits of scale and supply chain investment.
Overweight. Target is $6.90. Industry view: In-line.
Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $5.27 Difference: $1.63
If BBN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.39, suggesting upside of 23.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 15.80 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.5, implying annual growth of 65.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.0. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 18.90 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of 17.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates BBN as Add (1) -
Baby Bunting Group reported a strong first half result with store sales growth up 6.8% compared to Morgans' expected 2.3% and up 21.8% on a two-year basis, and momentum appears to have continued into the second half.
While a gross margin increase to 39.3% exceeded expectations, expect margin contraction in the second half on seasonality as well as the reset of hedging and freight contracts.
Looking ahead, potential for further growth in broader baby products was indicated, offering potential to further drive comparable store sales growth. The broker believes opportunity exists to win a greater share of the $5.1bn baby goods market.
The Add rating is retained and the target price decreases to $6.00 from $6.20.
Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.27 Difference: $0.73
If BBN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.39, suggesting upside of 23.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.5, implying annual growth of 65.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.0. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of 17.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates BBN as Buy (1) -
Baby Bunting's FY22 December-half result seriously outpaced Ord Minnett's forecast, the company recording above-market sales growth, higher gross profit margins and strong cost discipline.
EPS forecasts are upgraded 5.9% in FY22, 2.6% in FY23 and 3% in FY24 to reflect the strong result.
The broker spies room for building operating margins, increased online sales penetration, organic sales growth and store rollouts.
Buy rating retained. Target price eases to $6.60 from $6.65.
Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $5.27 Difference: $1.33
If BBN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.39, suggesting upside of 23.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.5, implying annual growth of 65.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.0. |
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 27.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of 17.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CIM CIMIC GROUP LIMITED
Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers
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Overnight Price: $15.63
UBS rates CIM as Neutral (3) -
Cimic Group's 2021 profit was toward the low-end of the guidance range, and a -3% miss versus the estimate by UBS and consensus. A 6% beat for Construction earnings was insufficient to counter a miss for Thiess equity accounted profits.
Further cash outflows from Leighton Asia and reduced debtor factoring financing contributed to disappointing cash flows, explains the analyst.
The target price falls to $16.50 from $22.50 partly due to lower target multiples, higher than expected debt levels, as well
as the partial divestment of the group's stake in Ventia.
Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $15.63 Difference: $0.87
If CIM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $20.34, suggesting upside of 30.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 156.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 151.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 87.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3. |
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is N/A, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CSL CSL LIMITED
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences
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Overnight Price: $248.50
Ord Minnett rates CSL as Hold (3) -
Following industry feedback and peer results, Ord Minnett lowers its target price for CSL to $285 from $315.
The analyst lowers the forecast for gross margins in the plasma division, as covid has wrought a structural decline in per-centre collections and a lift in donor fees. A weaker US uptake from the Seqirus (flu) division also weighed on the forecast.
A cautious Hold rating is maintained given the protracted pandemic impacts and questions over when demand will recover, explains the broker.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $285.00 Current Price is $248.50 Difference: $36.5
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $312.94, suggesting upside of 28.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 301.97 cents and EPS of 638.84 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 671.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 312.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.3. |
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 334.18 cents and EPS of 849.55 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 830.1, implying annual growth of 23.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 355.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.74
Citi rates IAG as Buy (1) -
Citi notes while Insurance Australia Group's first half underlying insurance margin of 13.6% may initially disappoint, a seemingly conservative margin should allow for a much stronger second half margin.
The first half margin has been impacted by headwinds that look to unwind moving forward, including front loaded expenses and one-off investments. Further, 6.2% growth in the half was the best result in a long time time and supported a guidance increase.
The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $5.75 from $5.60.
Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $4.74 Difference: $1.01
If IAG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.09, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 20.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 33.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.8, implying annual growth of 39.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates IAG as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie assumes the market was expecting the worst from Insurance Australia Group's result given a positive share price response, because the negatives outweighed the positives in the broker's view.
Underlying trends remain "perplexing", the broker suggests, and to achieve FY24 margin targets, not only does IAG need to achieve 10% margin in the Intermediated division, but margin repair is beginning to be required in Home and Motor as well.
An upgrade to gross written premium guidance is also misleading, as it's down to forex assistance. Still, on cheap valuation the broker retains Outperform, mindful of short term risks. Target falls to $5.00 from $5.10.
Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.74 Difference: $0.26
If IAG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.09, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 17.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 26.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.8, implying annual growth of 39.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Underweight (5) -
Morgan Stanley notes a beat for Insurance Australia Group's 1H margins, and upgraded guidance for gross written premium growth. However, it's felt several risks to earnings and cost of capital are not currently incorporated into the share price.
The analyst reminds investors the margin still fell year-on-year, and claims inflation remains a risk heading into 2022. Moreover, the reported margin was not as strong with catastrophe costs and reserve headwinds.
The Underweight rating is kept while the target rises to $3.90 from $3.80. Industry view: Attractive.
Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $4.74 Difference: minus $0.84 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.09, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.8, implying annual growth of 39.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates IAG as Buy (1) -
Insurance Australia Group's FY22 December-half cash insurance earnings outpaced Ord Minnett's forecasts but the insurance reported result fell a touch shy due to higher-than-estimated perils costs and reserve additions.
The broker appreciates the company's strong gross written premiums and management noted that rate rises were pushing underlying margins higher, despite weakness in reported margins.
Buy rating retained. Target price edges up to $5.50 from $5.45.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.74 Difference: $0.76
If IAG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.09, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9. |
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.8, implying annual growth of 39.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates IAG as Sell (5) -
Despite most metrics contained within 1H results for Insurance Australia Group either meeting or exceeding consensus estimates, UBS is concerned over a fall in the underlying insurance margin to 13.6% from 14.2% in the previous corresponding period.
The analyst sees claims inflation rising for several insurance lines and observes compliance and IT cost pressures.
The broker retains its below-consensus outlook, and maintains its Sell rating and $4.20 target price.
Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.74 Difference: minus $0.54 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.09, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9. |
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 26.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.8, implying annual growth of 39.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MFG MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $18.11
Macquarie rates MFG as Neutral (3) -
Macquarie has cut its target for Magellan Financial to $18.50 from $20.00 on concern over -$5.5bn in outflows so far in 2022. Ongoing volatility presents further outflow risk and thus little scope for a re-rating.
On a sum-of-the-parts methodology, the broker does not yet see valuation as sufficiently compelling. Neutral retained.
Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $18.11 Difference: $0.39
If MFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.41, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 210.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 228.2, implying annual growth of 57.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 204.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 11.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.0. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 164.00 cents and EPS of 184.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 198.2, implying annual growth of -13.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 176.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates MFG as Underweight (5) -
Magellan Financial Group has reported outflows for January and February 2022, confirming Morgan Stanley's dim view of the company's prospects.
The broker says the data implies -$7bn of outflows in global equities over the period, the bulk coming in February following portfolio management adjustments.
Given the bulk of the fund's clients are large, lumpy non-Australian institutions, the broker spies the threat of continued margin pressure in retail channels.
Underweight rating at $17.20 target price retained.
Target price is $17.20 Current Price is $18.11 Difference: minus $0.91 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $18.41, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 225.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 228.2, implying annual growth of 57.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 204.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 11.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.0. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 192.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 198.2, implying annual growth of -13.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 176.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates MFG as Sell (5) -
Following a funds under management (FUM) update by Magellan Financial Group, UBS believes risks remain skewed to the downside.The level of sustainable FUM, potential fee reductions to stem retail outflows, and staff retention are all considered worries.
The group revealed net outflows of -$5.5bn since the start of January, which suggests to the broker institutional global equity outflows are tracking significantly higher at around -$6.5-7bn.
The Sell rating and $17 target price are retained.
Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $18.11 Difference: minus $1.11 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $18.41, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 209.00 cents and EPS of 244.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 228.2, implying annual growth of 57.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 204.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 11.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.0. |
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 162.00 cents and EPS of 174.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 198.2, implying annual growth of -13.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 176.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.47
Macquarie rates MGR as Outperform (1) -
Mirvac's first half investment earnings were below Macquarie's expectations. albeit FY22 guidance was reaffirmed, aided by higher commercial development profits.
A review of the company's commercial development and apartment pipeline provides confidence in catalysts for operating earnings growth over FY23-FY27, the broker notes.
The broker re-bases investment earnings, but on a strong development outlook, and Mirvac trading at a discount to net tangible asset value, Outperform retained. Target falls to $2.97 from $3.15.
Target price is $2.97 Current Price is $2.47 Difference: $0.5
If MGR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.10, suggesting upside of 23.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.20 cents and EPS of 12.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of -37.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.80 cents and EPS of 14.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.1, implying annual growth of 11.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
NST NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED
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Overnight Price: $8.50
UBS rates NST as Buy (1) -
Underlying profit for Northern Star Resources of $108m was below UBS' expectations after a -$90m non-cash inventory cost. A 10cps dividend was in-line and management maintained production guidance.
Despite labour pressures from the WA border closure, the broker backs the company to attain its targeted rate of 25% production growth in four years. The target price falls to $10.80 from $11.20. Buy.
Target price is $10.80 Current Price is $8.50 Difference: $2.3
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.48, suggesting upside of 27.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 41.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.0, implying annual growth of -73.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.0. |
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 31.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.2, implying annual growth of 10.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $136.11
Morgan Stanley rates REA as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley feels fears around listings are overdone for REA Group and remain positive on the outlook. The Overweight rating is retained after a -19% year-to-date fall in share price, first half results that beat expectations and a positive start to the 2H.
The analyst sees a challenge for the company in maintaining existing growth rates over the longer term. Thus, in a hypothetical scenario, it's felt acquiring more of Move Inc, should the opportunity arise, would make financial and strategic sense.
The Target price falls to $178 from $182.50. Industry View: Attractive.
Target price is $178.00 Current Price is $136.11 Difference: $41.89
If REA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $162.19, suggesting upside of 19.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 180.40 cents and EPS of 316.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 316.7, implying annual growth of 29.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 168.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.8. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 203.00 cents and EPS of 361.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 366.1, implying annual growth of 15.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 197.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates SQ2 as Buy (1) -
Citi resumes coverage on Block, noting the acquisition of Afterpay offers a value creation opportunity that expands the new product development canvas for both parties and improves Block's product development capabilities.
Citi expects the merge to be 50% gross profit accretive to Block's Cash app in FY23. The app retains 40m monthly average users, and downloads remain solid, but expect acquisition spend to increase with the inclusion of Verse, Cash App for Teens and tax filing capabilities.
The broker reinitiates with a Buy rating and a target price of US$220.00.
Current Price is $147.45. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 324.79 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 385.18 cents. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates STO as Buy (1) -
Ord Minnett downgrades Santos's target price to $9.15 from $9.35 after incorporating the 2021 reserve statement into its financial model.
Earnings estimates are largely steady, net present value estimates fall -2%.
Buy rating retained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $9.15 Current Price is $7.42 Difference: $1.73
If STO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.91, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 17.45 cents and EPS of 69.79 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5. |
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 20.13 cents and EPS of 83.21 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.6, implying annual growth of 33.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.14
Citi rates UMG as Buy (1) -
United Malt Group reaffirmed expectations for processing volumes to approach pre-covid levels in FY22. Citi notes volume recovery, expansion initiatives and the transformation program are expected to drive 18% earnings compound annual growth through to FY24.
Slow on-premise beer consumption in the US in January and February is likely, but low off-premise volumes could suggest a sustained shift toward on-premise has already taken place. Improvement continues in Australasia and distilling remains resilient.
The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $5.00 from $4.90.
Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.14 Difference: $0.86
If UMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.82, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 19.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.3, implying annual growth of 340.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 28.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.8, implying annual growth of 36.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates UMG as Outperform (1) -
Guidance was not provided at United Malt Group's AGM unlike last year due to a number of positive and negative factors, Macquarie notes, including covid, supply disruptions, the Canadian drought, and taking advantage of unprecedented malt prices, making forecasting difficult.
But management is confident that the outlook for the second and beyond is positive, provided we do not see a return of covid-related restrictions, and the broker is comfortable with its own current forecasts.
A downgrade to the industry multiple has the broker's target falling to $4.55 from $4.68, Outperform retained.
Target price is $4.55 Current Price is $4.14 Difference: $0.41
If UMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.82, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 12.20 cents and EPS of 20.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.3, implying annual growth of 340.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.60 cents and EPS of 29.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.8, implying annual growth of 36.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates UMG as Buy (1) -
UBS assesses softer recent industry malt volumes (as a result of rising covid-19 cases) is temporary and maintains its Buy rating for United Malt Group, following recent AGM commentary.
Management reiterated transformation program earnings (EBITDA) benefits of $30m by FY24.
The broker lowers its target price to $5.05 from $5.10 and maintains a Buy rating.
Target price is $5.05 Current Price is $4.14 Difference: $0.91
If UMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.82, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.3, implying annual growth of 340.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4. |
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.8, implying annual growth of 36.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.60
Macquarie rates URW as Neutral (3) -
UR Westfield reported 2021 adjusted recurring earnings in line with Macquarie but slightly ahead of guidance. 2022 guidance is below the broker's estimate but likely reflecting management conservatism due to covid.
Operational metrics imply improvement off a low base, particularly in the US, and the broker awaits the upcoming strategy day to learn more detail about US options.
Target rises to $5.71 from $5.44, Neutral retained.
Target price is $5.71 Current Price is $5.60 Difference: $0.11
If URW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 67.42 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 63.64 cents and EPS of 79.55 cents. |
This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $45.11
Ord Minnett rates WTC as Initiation of coverage with an Accumulate rating (2) -
Ord Minnett resumes coverage of WiseTech Global after an 18-month hiatus with an Accumulate Rating and $51 target price (up from $27.45 in August 2020).
Wisetech is a global software-as-a-service provider to the logistics industry and offers a pure-play cloud approach vis-a-vis competitors.
Ord Minnett appreciates the company's track record of organic and inorganic growth, the company having posted a 38% compound annual growth rate since FY16.
Target price is $51.00 Current Price is $45.11 Difference: $5.89
If WTC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $46.78, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 46.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.6, implying annual growth of 43.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 95.9. |
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 61.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.3, implying annual growth of 35.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 71.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
ARF | Arena REIT | $4.75 | Macquarie | 4.90 | 4.89 | 0.20% |
Morgan Stanley | 4.18 | 3.66 | 14.21% | |||
BBN | Baby Bunting | $5.18 | Citi | 6.22 | 6.11 | 1.80% |
Macquarie | 6.21 | 6.11 | 1.64% | |||
Morgans | 6.00 | 6.20 | -3.23% | |||
Ord Minnett | 6.60 | 6.65 | -0.75% | |||
CIM | Cimic Group | $15.59 | UBS | 16.50 | 22.50 | -26.67% |
IAG | Insurance Australia Group | $4.72 | Citi | 5.75 | 5.60 | 2.68% |
Macquarie | 5.00 | 5.10 | -1.96% | |||
Morgan Stanley | 3.90 | 3.80 | 2.63% | |||
Ord Minnett | 5.50 | 5.45 | 0.92% | |||
MFG | Magellan Financial | $18.28 | Macquarie | 18.50 | 20.00 | -7.50% |
MGR | Mirvac Group | $2.51 | Macquarie | 2.97 | 3.15 | -5.71% |
NST | Northern Star Resources | $9.00 | UBS | 10.80 | 11.20 | -3.57% |
REA | REA Group | $135.47 | Morgan Stanley | 178.00 | 182.50 | -2.47% |
STO | Santos | $7.73 | Ord Minnett | 9.15 | 9.35 | -2.14% |
UMG | United Malt | $4.14 | Citi | 5.00 | 4.90 | 2.04% |
Macquarie | 4.55 | 4.68 | -2.78% | |||
UBS | 5.05 | 5.10 | -0.98% | |||
URW | Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield | $5.38 | Macquarie | 5.71 | 5.44 | 4.96% |
WTC | WiseTech Global | $45.65 | Ord Minnett | 51.00 | 24.75 | 106.06% |
Summaries
ALG | Ardent Leisure | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $1.39 |
ARF | Arena REIT | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.90 |
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $4.90 | ||
BBN | Baby Bunting | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $5.27 |
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $5.27 | ||
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $5.27 | ||
Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $5.27 | ||
Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $5.27 | ||
CIM | Cimic Group | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $15.63 |
CSL | CSL | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $248.50 |
IAG | Insurance Australia Group | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $4.74 |
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.74 | ||
Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $4.74 | ||
Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.74 | ||
Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $4.74 | ||
MFG | Magellan Financial | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $18.11 |
Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $18.11 | ||
Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $18.11 | ||
MGR | Mirvac Group | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.47 |
NST | Northern Star Resources | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $8.50 |
REA | REA Group | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $136.11 |
SQ2 | Block | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $147.45 |
STO | Santos | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $7.42 |
UMG | United Malt | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $4.14 |
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.14 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $4.14 | ||
URW | Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $5.60 |
WTC | WiseTech Global | Initiation of coverage with an Accumulate rating - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $45.11 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 17 |
2. Accumulate | 1 |
3. Hold | 6 |
5. Sell | 4 |
Monday 14 February 2022
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The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
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the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
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base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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