Australian Broker Call

Morgans rates ACF as Buy (1) -

Acrow's 1H26 EBITDA guidance missed Morgans' expectations due mainly to continued softness in the formwork business, especially in Queensland. Revenue guidance was higher than the broker's forecast.

The company is confident of recovery in 4Q26 and strong momentum from FY27 as Brisbane Olympics-related projects ramp up. Industrial Access, comprising 50% of FY25 revenue,  continues to perform strongly, with FY26 revenue expected to reach near $200m.

M&A activity is paused but could resume in FY27, with the broker expecting any acquisition to be value accretive. The broker lifted FY26 revenue forecast by 2% but trimmed EBITDA estimate by -6%.

FY27-28 EBITDA forecasts also saw small downgrades. Buy. Target cut to $1.29 from $1.32.

Target price is $1.29 Current Price is $1.06 Difference: $0.235
If ACF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.26, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ACF as Buy (1) -

Acrow's FY26 revenue guidance was 3% higher than Ord Minnett's forecast, but EBITDA fell short by -9.5% at the midpoint. The broker explains this was due to a deliberate shift toward the more labour-intensive industrial access segment, which now comprises 58% of revenue.

While the company expects margins to compress (24.8% vs broker's 28.3% estimate), the expanding industrial access base provides strong recurring earnings, the broker highlights. This bodes well for an earnings uplift once delayed QLD government projects commence.

Buy. Target trimmed to $1.25 from $1.30, following downgrades to FY26-27 EPS forecasts.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.06 Difference: $0.195
If ACF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.26, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates ACF as Buy (1) -

In a trading update at the AGM, Acrow pointed to strong industrial access activity but ongoing weakness in general formwork due to Queensland project delays, Shaw and Partners observes.

The company guided to 1H26 revenue of $153-157m (up 22% y/y) and EBITDA of $37-40m, versus the broker's previous forecasts of $145m revenue and $40.6m EBITDA, respectively.

The broker notes the medium-term outlook remains very positive, with major infrastructure cycles in Queensland, South Australia, and further opportunities across VIC, NSW and WA.

FY26 EBITDA forecast trimmed by -6.9% and FY27 by -1.4%, after lowering the 1H26 forecast to the bottom end of the guidance.

Buy, High Risk. Target lowered to $1.25 from $1.30.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.06 Difference: $0.195
If ACF meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.26, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley trimmed Aristocrat Leisure's target price to $72.40 from $73.70.

Overweight remains. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $72.40 Current Price is $57.40 Difference: $15
If ALL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $74.01, suggesting upside of 29.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

Among the major Australian banks, Citi believes ANZ Bank and Westpac (both Neutral-rated) offer the strongest leverage to an ongoing supportive macro environment.

Cost differentiation at both these banks, driven by productivity gains, is helping support stronger core earnings growth, explain the analysts.

Citi's order of preference is ANZ, Westpac, National Australia Bank ((NAB)) and CommBank ((CBA)) with the latter two rated Sell. 

For ANZ Bank: target is $37.00.

Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $35.99 Difference: $1.01
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.52, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

Following recent Australian Bank sector reporting, ANZ Bank remains Macquarie's most preferred exposure in the near-term, despite a shrinking discount and material medium-term execution and revenue attrition risks.

Capital strength remains a key differentiator, according to the broker, with inorganic tailwinds benefiting ANZ, CommBank ((CBA)), and Westpac ((WBC)), while market concern lingers over National Australia Bank's ((NAB)) relative position.

For ANZ Bank, the Neutral rating and $35 target are maintained.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $35.99 Difference: minus $0.99 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $33.52, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ARX as Buy (1) -

Aroa Biosurgery's US revenue-share partner for Ovitex, TelaBio, reported 3Q25 revenue of US$20.7m, up 9% y/y but flat q/q, Bell Potter observes. 

This resulted in a -8% cut to FY25 revenue guidance. Bell Potter reckons the downgrade is material but not severe, and Aroa had already assumed more conservative inputs.

The broker expects Aroa to maintain FY26 revenue guidance of NZ$92-100m when reporting 1H26 results on November 25, but reduced its forecast by -5% to NZ$98.2m.

For context, around 45% of the company's forecast FY26 revenue is expected to come from its share of TelaBio’s sales. Buy. Target unchanged at 85c.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.72 Difference: $0.13
If ARX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AUB as Neutral (3) -

At its AGM, AUB Group reiterated FY26 forecasts, noting premium rate rises between 5-7% in 1Q26 in Australian broking, with average income per client up 8.4% y/y. UBS observes less robust increases in NZ of 3.5-5%, with average income per client up 0.9% y/y.

Compared to Steadfast Group ((SDF)), the commercial premium rate increases are considerably higher, and this may reflect Steadfast's higher strata exposure, which is experiencing weaker pricing.

UBS retains its $35.50 target price and Neutral rating.

Target price is $35.50 Current Price is $37.59 Difference: minus $2.09 (current price is over target).
If AUB meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $40.02, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSL as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights CSL may face competitive pressure after Merck & Co agreed to acquire US-based biotechnology company Cidara Therapeutics and its lead flu preventative CD388 for around -US$9.2bn.

This novel investigational therapeutic offers additive efficacy to vaccines, observes the analyst, though some unvaccinated patients are included in the trial.

CD388, a long-acting antiviral distinct from CSL’s vaccines, is in a phase 3 Anchor trial targeting high-risk adults, with interim results expected in June and potential filing in 2027, explains the broker.

Citi considers the development worth monitoring given flu vaccines contribute about 14% of CSL’s revenue. Buy rating and target of $225 maintained.

Target price is $225.00 Current Price is $181.81 Difference: $43.19
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $244.39, suggesting upside of 35.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DPM as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights a strong September quarter for the Vares mine, the first quarter under DPM Metals' ownership following the Adriatic Metals acquisition.

The broker notes 3Q revenue, profit, and free cash flow of US$267m, US$129m, and US$148m, beat consensus forecasts by 14%, 15%, and 55%, respectively, driven by higher realised gold prices and lower tax.

Costs worsened -24% ex-Vares to -US$1,168/oz due to higher expenses at Chelopech and Ada Tepe, explains the broker.

Macquarie sees catalysts ahead with the Coka Rakita feasibility study and Dumitru Potok resource estimate due 4Q25. Outperform with a higher target of $49 from $47.

Target price is $49.00 Current Price is $34.53 Difference: $14.47
If DPM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ELD as Buy (1) -

Following the conference call with Elders post-FY25 results, Citi has an improved outlook on the company due to stronger FY26 crop protection sales, solid cattle activity and leverage returning to target.

Other positives include CEO stability, tax impacts being factored into future EPS goals, and continued progress on backward integration for both Elders and Delta.

Earlier, Citi stated the results met expectations. Cash conversion rose to 137% versus 1H25 at 82% and 129% in FY24, which the analyst attributes to livestock prices and a late start to the winter crop.

Underlying earnings (EBITDA) were within guidance, though failed to achieve Citi's expectations due to the Delta acquisition adjustment and a pickup in leverage.

Buy rated. Target $8.45.

Target price is $8.45 Current Price is $6.97 Difference: $1.48
If ELD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.80, suggesting upside of 18.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GNC as Accumulate (2) -

The highlight of GrainCorp's FY25 result was strong operating cashflow, which led to an attractive dividend, meeting Morgans' forecast. Underlying EBITDA and net profit missed expectations due to one-offs.

FY26 earnings guidance is expected at the AGM in February, in line with past practice. The broker expects the company to benefit from an above-average harvest and no further crop production insurance payments beyond the instrument cost.

FY26 margins are expected to mirror FY25, with grain marketing margins still tight due to Australia’s price premium over the US and only modest improvement in canola crush margins.

Accumulate. Target rises to $9.05 from $8.92, reflecting strong cash position.

Target price is $9.05 Current Price is $7.99 Difference: $1.06
If GNC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.83, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GTK as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley lowers its target for Gentrack Group to $7.70 from $13.50 and downgrades to Equal-weight from Overweight. Industry View: In-Line.

A widening range of outcomes is contemplated for the group ahead of FY25 results amid softer visibility and competitive headwinds.

The broker highlights strong traction for the group's next-generation utility software platform G2 and material contract wins.

On the flipside, the analysts suggest caution is warranted given customer churn, delayed Genesis implementation, and tighter commercial terms that may reduce consulting revenue leverage.

It's also noted competition from Kraken in Australia has intensified, with retailers adopting the platform despite higher cost and integration challenges.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $7.19 Difference: $0.51
If GTK meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.90, suggesting upside of 62.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HUB as Neutral (3) -

Hub24 announced a partnership with major life insurer TAL to develop lifetime retirement solutions in 1H26, which comes on the back of similar products launched by peers.

UBS points to AMP's ((AMP)) MyNorth Lifetime Product (underwritten by TAL) and Insignia Financial’s ((IFL)) Retirement Boost (underwritten by TAL and Challenger Group ((CGF))).

No change to Neutral rating and $117 target price. Hub24's AGM is on November 24.

Target price is $117.00 Current Price is $104.46 Difference: $12.54
If HUB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $108.24, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley highlights strong profitability for Allianz Australia in the September quarter, offering an overall positive read-through for Insurance Australia Group and Suncorp Group.

Organic premium growth accelerated to 8.4% year-on-year, supporting the two insurers' mid-single-digit FY26 targets. Renewal growth rate of 7.1% in the first three quarters of 2025, with pricing up 5.3% in the quarter, is sufficient to sustain or lift margins as input costs ease.

Allianz’s combined operating ratio improved 220bps to 85.6%, aided by lower catastrophe losses and strong underlying performance, explains Morgan Stanley.

QBE Insurance's specialty lines, though, face weaker trends, with Allianz’s global corporate division reporting softer pricing and a higher ex-cat ratio of 93.8%, explains the broker.

For Insurance Australia Group: Equal-weight. Target $8.80. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $8.80 Current Price is $7.80 Difference: $1
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.11, suggesting upside of 16.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IFT as Buy (1) -

After a further review of Infratil's 1H results, Citi retains its Buy rating and raises its target to NZ$14.20 from NZ$14.10.

The broker's initial impressions are summarised below.

Citi views Infratil's 1H result positively, citing a strong outlook supported by the CDC data centre business’s plan to double earnings (EBITDA) and upgraded FY26 guidance from Longroad.

The broker highlights solid progress in US renewables and ongoing portfolio simplification through divestments of NZ towers and property interests.

Infratil has now achieved its strategy-day goal of a simplified portfolio spanning cash flow, current growth and future growth pillars, point out the analysts.

Citi observes the stock trades at around a -30% discount to net asset value (NAV) versus a -14% historic average, suggesting valuation upside.

Current Price is $10.13. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IRI as Buy (1) -

In a trading update, Integrated Research revealed expectations for 1H26 statutory revenue of $25.0-30.5m and an EBITDA loss of -$3-8m. This compared with Bell Potter's estimates of $31m and -$0.6m, respectively.

Weaker revenue reflects softer renewals, but customer growth hasn't offset them. Additionally, the company reported a significant rise in expected credit-loss allowances, but didn't quantify.

The broker downgraded 1H26 revenue and EBITDA forecasts to the midpoint of the revised guidance, and assumed -$4, bad debt provision. Forecasts for 2H26 also lowered, resulting in -11% downgrade to FY26 revenue estimate, along with lower estimates for FY27-28.

Buy. Target trimmed to 40c from 55c on earnings downgrades, reduction in valuation multiple and higher WACC.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.31 Difference: $0.095
If IRI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MFG as Neutral (3) -

UBS observes flows during October for Magellan Financial's trackable retail funds and points to global outflows of -$140m, infrastructure outflows of -$30m, with inflows for Airlie up $5m and Vinva up $50m.

The flows appear to be better than September but softer than 1Q26. As highlighted at the UBS conference, Vinva has FUM of $39bn due to institutional wins, with Magellan owning a 29.5% equity stake.

UBS maintains a $10.70 target price with a Neutral rating.

Target price is $10.70 Current Price is $9.27 Difference: $1.43
If MFG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.49, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NUF as Sell (5) -

Ahead of Nufarm's FY25 results, Citi remains Sell-rated on Nufarm, but sees potential for a near-term upside catalyst from decisions on Seed Technologies. Either a sale or closure was flagged by management as a possibility during the recent strategic review.

Leverage guided to 3.0x in FY25 elevates 1H26 risk, the broker notes, without concrete sale or closure commentary.

Crop Protection shows volume improvement with potential pricing stabilisation, highlights the broker.

Target $2.60.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $2.19 Difference: $0.16
If NUF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.06, suggesting upside of 39.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NWL as Neutral (3) -

Netwealth Group announced at its AGM that total funds under administration to November 10 were $123.8bn, up from $120.8bn in September.

UBS notes the group explained it has sufficient resources to meet any obligations in the event ASIC brings a case against them regarding First Guardian.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $33.50.

Target price is $33.50 Current Price is $28.10 Difference: $5.4
If NWL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.55, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORI as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley describes Orica’s FY25 as strong and broadly in line with expectations, supported by premium product growth and resilient mining demand.

Revenue rose 6% year-on-year to $8.1bn, earnings (EBIT) increased 23% to $992m, and EPS gained 29% to 111.8c.

The broker highlights 15% earnings growth in Blasting, 32% in Digital Solutions, and 47% in Specialty Mining Chemicals, with earnings growth expected across all segments in FY26.

Overweight retained, with target increased to $26 from $23. Industry view: In-line

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $23.85 Difference: $2.15
If ORI meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.58, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie remains constructive on lithium pricing despite equities running ahead of underlying prices.

The broker expects spot spodumene to reach US$1,200-1,300/t early next year but sees limited upside beyond that without further demand catalysts.

Chinese battery manufacturer Contemporary Amperex Technology Co's restart could trigger near-term profit-taking, observes the analyst.

However, Macquarie views any weakness as a longer-term buying opportunity given supportive fundamentals and emerging supply discipline.

Neutral rating and $3.00 target retained for Pilbara Minerals.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.82 Difference: minus $0.82 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.98, suggesting downside of -24.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PME as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Morgans believes Pro Medicus' share price weakness reflects a broader rotation away from high-growth names rather than company-specific issues.

At the current level, the stock offers an attractive entry point despite potential ongoing volatility, in the broker's view.

Rating upgraded to Accumulate from Hold. Target unchanged at $290.

Target price is $290.00 Current Price is $248.83 Difference: $41.17
If PME meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $322.77, suggesting upside of 24.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QBE as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights strong profitability for Allianz Australia in the September quarter, offering an overall positive read-through for Insurance Australia Group and Suncorp Group.

Organic premium growth accelerated to 8.4% year-on-year, supporting the two insurers' mid-single-digit FY26 targets. Renewal growth rate of 7.1% in the first three quarters of 2025, with pricing up 5.3% in the quarter, is sufficient to sustain or lift margins as input costs ease.

Allianz’s combined operating ratio improved 220bps to 85.6%, aided by lower catastrophe losses and strong underlying performance, explains Morgan Stanley.

QBE Insurance's specialty lines, though, face weaker trends, with Allianz’s global corporate division reporting softer pricing and a higher ex-cat ratio of 93.8%, explains the broker.

For QBE Insurance: Overweight rating and $23.50 target retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $20.23 Difference: $3.27
If QBE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.22, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RHC as Neutral (3) -

Ramsay Health Care's Sante, which operates the French and Nordics business, announced 1Q26 revenue up 3% y/y, which included organic growth of 2% as well as some volume growth benefits, UBS explains.

Nordic revenue grew 5% compared to France at 2%, while earnings (EBITDA) rose 7%, with margins up 30bps over the period.

The result is marginally better than anticipated, but the analyst is cautious about whether momentum from France can be retained over the course of FY26.

No change to Neutral rating and $35.90 target price.

Target price is $35.90 Current Price is $30.92 Difference: $4.98
If RHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.22, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes Rio Tinto has placed its US$2.95bn Jadar lithium project in Serbia into care and maintenance following prolonged permitting delays and local opposition.

The broker suggests this signals a recalibration of Rio’s lithium strategy under CEO Simon Trott, who recently folded the business into a combined Aluminium-Lithium division.

Such a move implies to the analysts a stronger focus on capital discipline and improved medium-term free cash flow yield. Management changes, including the reported departure of former Arcadium Lithium CEO Paul Graves, are thought to reinforce this shift.

Morgan Stanley retains an Equal-weight rating and target of $129.50. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $129.50 Current Price is $131.85 Difference: minus $2.35 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $125.92, suggesting downside of -5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SFR as Sell (5) -

The Kalkaroo copper-gold project in South Australia, which was previously considered by Oz Minerals and later BHP Group ((BHP)), is now being investigated by Sandfire Resources. The miner entered into a term sheet to possibly earn an 80% interest in the project.

UBS notes the earn-in structure includes $105m upfront and likely another $105m on or within completion of a preliminary feasibility study, which includes a 20,000m drill program. There's also another $30m for regional exploration, before moving to a final investment decision.

BHP believed the project was technically possible but did not offer the scale the group viewed as competitive with its asset portfolio.

The analyst updates their EPS estimates for the costs and dilution for the earnings, with the FY26 forecast downgraded by -5% and FY27 by -7%. The stock remains Sell-rated with a $15.55 target price.

Target price is $15.55 Current Price is $16.25 Difference: minus $0.7 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.50, suggesting downside of -11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SLC as Buy (1) -

Superloop's wholesale net add momentum has made the market concerned about the pace of Origin Energy ((ORG)) customer acquisition, yet Citi remains constructive on growth prospects.

The broker highlights a second-half skew in Origin’s energy customer additions and recent broadband price cuts, which are expected to boost wholesale momentum through FY26.

Consumer strength continues, highlight the analysts, with Exetel One Plan driving around 7.6k monthly net adds in 1H and further benefit anticipated from Black Friday promotions.

The broker explains Business growth is supported by Smarter Communities contract wins and the Frontier Networks acquisition, adding over 10k lots.

Citi retains a Buy rating and target of $3.75.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $2.77 Difference: $0.98
If SLC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.53, suggesting upside of 28.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates STO as Buy (1) -

Citi sees Santos as better positioned than Woodside Energy for a re-rating as the oil price bottoms in 1Q26.

Santos is emerging from its capex cycle with stronger cash margins, rising free cash flow (FCF) yield, and cleaner earnings conversion to operating cash flow.

The broker highlights a balanced reserves mix, improving return on invested capital (ROIC) through the decade, and rapid gearing normalisation as Barossa and Pikka ramp up.

Woodside remains high quality but faces higher depreciation, extended capex tied to Louisiana LNG, execution and farm-down risks, and heavier single-asset exposure in Scarborough, explains Citi.

Buy for Santos. Target unchanged at $7.50.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $6.62 Difference: $0.88
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.57, suggesting upside of 13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights strong profitability for Allianz Australia in the September quarter, offering an overall positive read-through for Insurance Australia Group and Suncorp Group.

Organic premium growth accelerated to 8.4% year-on-year, supporting the two insurers' mid-single-digit FY26 targets. Renewal growth rate of 7.1% in the first three quarters of 2025, with pricing up 5.3% in the quarter, is sufficient to sustain or lift margins as input costs ease.

Allianz’s combined operating ratio improved 220bps to 85.6%, aided by lower catastrophe losses and strong underlying performance, explains Morgan Stanley.

QBE Insurance's specialty lines, though, face weaker trends, with Allianz’s global corporate division reporting softer pricing and a higher ex-cat ratio of 93.8%, explains the broker.

For Suncorp Group: Overweight. Target $25.00. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $19.33 Difference: $5.67
If SUN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.63, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VGN as Buy (1) -

At the AGM, Virgin Australia re-affirmed 1H26 RASK (revenue per available seat km) growth of 3-5% and guided to 2% capacity growth in 2H, supported by strong demand and operations.

Ord Minnett notes Jet fuel prices and crack spreads have surged, but Virgin’s hedging program mitigates the impact on FY26 earnings.

Beyond FY26, the broker expects higher fuel costs to be mostly offset through RASK management -- higher pricing and capacity adjustments.

EPS estimates for FY26 and FY27 lowered by -0.3% and -2.8%, respectively. Buy, with a trimmed target of $4.00 from $4.10.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.14 Difference: $0.86
If VGN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.00, suggesting upside of 26.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VGN as Buy (1) -

At the Virgin Australia AGM, Management re-confirmed FY26 guidance announced in August, with domestic RASK (Revenue per Available Seat Kilometre) up 3-5% in 1H26 compared to UBS' forecast of 3.9%.

Domestic capacity is up 4% in 1H26, with the broker forecasting 3.9%, and Velocity seems to be meeting expectations of 7% growth in earnings (EBIT).

UBS views the update as potentially a relief moment for investors post Qantas Airways ((QAN)) AGM update the prior week, which noted domestic RASK growth of 3% in 1H26.

Lower fuel costs were also mentioned as likely in FY26 versus FY25. UBS continues to like Virgin's strategy and portfolio, which is simpler, as well as the appeal of the domestic exposure.

Buy rated with a higher target of $4.20 from $4.10, with no change to EPS estimates.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.14 Difference: $1.06
If VGN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.00, suggesting upside of 26.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WBC as Neutral (3) -

Among the major Australian banks, Citi believes ANZ Bank and Westpac (both Neutral-rated) offer the strongest leverage to an ongoing supportive macro environment.

Cost differentiation at both these banks, driven by productivity gains, is helping support stronger core earnings growth, explain the analysts.

Citi's order of preference is ANZ, Westpac, National Australia Bank ((NAB)) and CommBank ((CBA)) with the latter two rated Sell. 

For Westpac: target is $38.50.

Target price is $38.50 Current Price is $38.81 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.48, suggesting downside of -11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Citi sees Santos as better positioned than Woodside Energy for a re-rating as the oil price bottoms in 1Q26.

Santos is emerging from its capex cycle with stronger cash margins, rising free cash flow (FCF) yield, and cleaner earnings conversion to operating cash flow.

The broker highlights a balanced reserves mix, improving return on invested capital (ROIC) through the decade, and rapid gearing normalisation as Barossa and Pikka ramp up.

Woodside remains high quality but faces higher depreciation, extended capex tied to Louisiana LNG, execution and farm-down risks, and heavier single-asset exposure in Scarborough, notes Citi.

Neutral for Woodside Energy. Target $25.50.

Target price is $25.50 Current Price is $26.24 Difference: minus $0.74 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.78, suggesting downside of -2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WGN as Accumulate (2) -

At the AGM, Wagners Holding Co provided FY26 EBIT guidance of $52-56m, which beat Morgans' forecast by 26% and the consensus by 25%. The guidance reflects a 60/40 skew at the midpoint.

The broker notes strong construction activity in South-East Queensland is driving sustained demand for the company's materials. The earnings forecast beat is amplified by unexpectedly strong margin leverage in concrete and improved pull-through from the expanded batching network, the broker explains.

The outlook for Pole production is also brighter, and the broker now expects a doubling in volume vs a 50% y/y increase previously expected.

FY26 EBIT forecast upgraded by 25% and FY27 by 19%. Accumulate, with a higher target of $3.75 from $3.10.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: $0.42
If WGN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates XRO as Buy (1) -

Xero's softer 1H results triggered a -9% share price decline, which Citi views as overdone given prior weakness.

The broker expects consensus downgrades due to the inclusion of loss-making Melio but sees FY26 earnings tracking toward around $750m, only slightly below consensus.

Buy. Target $210.

A summary of Citi's initial reaction to the results follows.

On first take, Citi highlights Xero beat on earnings (EBITDA) due to higher R&D capitalisation, while annualised monthly recurring revenue suggests there is potential upside to core revenue in FY26.

Earnings beat the analyst's estimate by 6% and were 1% above consensus, with revenue growth of 20% y/y, below consensus by -1%. Adjusting for R&D capitalisation, Citi notes the beat would have been only 2% against its forecast.

Overall, the result was softer than expected, including Melio, where total payment volume slowed to 20% growth y/y, with weaker subs growth in NZ, North America, and the rest of the world. Gross margin also declined -40bps y/y.

The share price is expected to weaken on the result, with potential for recovery later in the day.

Target price is $210.00 Current Price is $122.36 Difference: $87.64
If XRO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $200.05, suggesting upside of 63.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates XRO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes Xero’s growth story remains intact, with execution in the US tracking ahead of schedule. The broker highlights strong cost discipline and an improved outlook, and notes Melio is outperforming expectations.

North America is seen as the key growth driver, with Melio integration and Gusto payroll rollout advancing earlier than forecast.

Outperform. Target rises to $230.30 from $228.90.

A summary of Macquarie's initial thoughts on the result follows.

In a flash update, Macquarie points to a guidance upgrade for FY26 with opex/sales lowered to 70.5% from 71.5% ex-Melio due to improved efficiency. FY28 targets were reiterated at two times Xero's standalone FY25 revenue and over the Rule of 40.

The result shows subscriptions in line, with average revenue per user better than expected by 3% and 21% above consensus. Annualised monthly recurring revenue was 3% better than the analyst's estimate and 5% above consensus.

The strong monthly recurring revenue infers the company only requires NZ$141m of revenue growth to achieve consensus sales. First half payments revenue rose 40% annually, with Melio achieving robust revenue growth of 68% y/y, with over 7k customers. 

UK growth advanced to over 56k net subs added against over 49k a year earlier.

Target price is $230.30 Current Price is $122.36 Difference: $107.94
If XRO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 88% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $200.05, suggesting upside of 63.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates XRO as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes Xero's share price fell after FY25 results as the market reacted to higher-than-expected FY26 operating expense guidance, implying an EBIT downgrade to NZ$364m vs consensus NZ$410m.

The interpretation is, however, complicated in the broker's view, due to NZ$26m of one-off items that some analysts include and others exclude, leading to mixed EBITDA estimates.

The broker's adjusted EBITDA forecast is now NZ$770m vs consensus of around NZ$768m. FY27 EBITDA consensus is around NZ$843m, but the broker sees this as conservative given Xero’s path toward achieving the SaaS “Rule of 40” by FY28.

The broker's FY27 EBITDA forecast is NZ$894m, reflecting stronger confidence in Xero’s core growth profile.

Buy. Target unchanged at $200.

Target price is $200.00 Current Price is $122.36 Difference: $77.64
If XRO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $200.05, suggesting upside of 63.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources