Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates AGL as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie assesses the increase in power price expectations, particularly in NSW (up $5/MWh) which is above the analyst's previous expectations, and pricing to remain around $115/MWh through to FY29.

Delays in transmission are expected to defer some of the FY27 benefits in Victoria until FY29.

The broker adjusts earnings forecasts for AGL Energy by 1.3% in FY24 and 4.3% in FY25 with a 36% uplift in FY26, driven by higher price expectations and lower depreciation.

Government intervention remains a risk, Macquarie notes, but progress on existing renewable projects is viewed as a positive.

The Neutral rating is maintained and the target rises to $10.69 from $10.30.

Target price is $10.69 Current Price is $10.33 Difference: $0.36
If AGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.74, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALL as Outperform (1) -

The Macquarie analyst views the strategic move by Aristocrat Leisure to potentially sell Plarium and Big Fish, excluding Social Casino, as a re-rating catalyst for the stock.

The broker forecasts the sale could fetch US$910-US$1,180m, with the high-end valuation supported by comparable mobile gaming companies such as RAID: Shadow Legends.

Selling these assets would free up the company to focus on land-based gaming, Social Casino, and real-money gambling, improving the strategic focus and capital returns, according to the broker.

Earnings forecasts are tweaked by 1% for FY24 and FY25. Outperform rating and $50.50 target unchanged.

Target price is $50.50 Current Price is $44.88 Difference: $5.62
If ALL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $50.20, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ALQ as Add (1) -

While Morgans detected few surprises within ALS Ltd's FY24 results, outlook commentary suggests benefits will flow from a margin recovery in Life Sciences, as well as a cyclical volume recovery in Commodities.

Other supporting factors include gold and copper prices trading at around all-time highs, up by more than 20% compared to average prices in 2023.

Management is aiming for mid-single digit organic growth for the group in FY25 which is consistent with the broker's forecasts.

The Add rating is maintained and the target rises to $15.50 from $15.00.

Target price is $15.50 Current Price is $14.11 Difference: $1.39
If ALQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.59, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COE as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights Cooper Energy has completed the BMG well decommissioning, costing -$260-280m, and estimates net debt at $279m by June 2024 end.

The broker points to a shift in focus to Orbost gas plant improvements and Otway growth, with access to the Transocean semi-sub rig in the basin from the second half of 2025.

Management is focused on reducing debt with capex dropping to around -$50m in FY25, allowing for deleveraging, according to the analyst.

Macquarie's forecasts are slightly adjusted, with EPS down -2% in FY24 due to lower Orbost gas production and partially offset by reduced PRRT expense.

Outperform rating and 27c target remain.

Target price is $0.27 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.045
If COE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.26, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DEG as Speculative Buy (1) -

De Grey Mining is completing a fully underwritten $600m equity raising at $1.10 per share, with a split between institutional and a retail offering.

Bell Potter highlights the issue will expand cash on the company's balance sheet to $919m and fully fund the equity part of the project financing for the 100%-owned Hemi Gold Project (HGP) in WA.

Forecasts are adjusted for the equity raising and the broker assesses this as de-risking the development program.

Speculative Buy rating and the target revised to $1.76 from $1.90.

Target price is $1.76 Current Price is $1.13 Difference: $0.635
If DEG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.74, suggesting upside of 53.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DMP as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie attended the Domino's Pizza Enterprises Europe Investor Day and highlighted management's re-alignment of the strategy in France, where former strategies from other countries had proved less successful.

The company is aiming for better local market accommodation and French management, which has improved franchisee engagement to date, notes the analyst.

Management initiatives are expected to take time to establish, highlights the broker. The company forecasts 1,000 stores in France by FY33, up from 482, implying a 10-year compound average growth rate of 7.5%, highlights Macquarie.

No changes to the broker's earnings forecasts. The Neutral rating and $41.00 target are maintained.

Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $36.52 Difference: $4.48
If DMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $47.25, suggesting upside of 27.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DMP as Overweight (1) -

On the first day of the European tour hosted by Domino's Pizza Enterprises, the analysts at Morgan Stanley learnt delivery has grown compared to pre-covid, but pick-up is still lagging those levels.

While labour costs are elevated, they are more predictable, and energy costs have normalised, observes the broker. However, food input costs are not declining.

The focus of day two included ways to address underperformance in France, which include: rebuilding relationships with franchisees, including exiting underperforming franchisees; and increasing advertising spend to the historical range of 5-6% from 4%.

The target is $52. Overweight rating. Industry view is In-Line. 

Target price is $52.00 Current Price is $36.52 Difference: $15.48
If DMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $47.25, suggesting upside of 27.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DTL as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley considers the current valuation for Data#3 is more compelling after a -25% share price retracement from all time highs, and upgrades its rating to Overweight from Equal-weight. The target rises to $8.40 from $8.10. Industry view: In-Line.

Growth should be supported by Services strength (in particular Managed Services) and resilient end customer exposures, to say nothing of medium-term tailwinds from AI, point out the analysts.

The company's government/enterprise end market exposures should prove more resilient relative to the SME market, which is starting to experience incremental uncertainty, according to the broker.

Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $7.42 Difference: $0.98
If DTL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.13, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EML as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett views EML Payments as better positioned than the last three years post the winding down of the problematic Irish reloadable cards business, PCSIL, in January 2024.

Management has repaid most of the debt from this business and started the divestment process of the non-core digital payments business, the analyst adds.

The broker argues the company's outlook has improved with the removal on the restrictions on its UK reloadable cards division and the company can refocus on expanding the business. Cost outs are forecast to continue into 2025.

Hold rating and $1.05 target unchanged.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.99 Difference: $0.065
If EML meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ILU as Neutral (3) -

On the one hand, explains Citi, the TiO2 feedstock outlook has improved on demand in ex China markets, but with prices yet to follow materially. On the other hand, zircon demand into China has failed to improve due to ongoing housing softness.

Rare earths prices are suffering from weaker demand and excess China supply, notes the broker.

For Iluka Resources, Citi pushes first refinery production into 2027, noting management is still to finalise additional funding for increased refinery capex.

The Neutral rating and $7.80 target are maintained.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $7.24 Difference: $0.56
If ILU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.84, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LLC as No Rating (-1) -

Macquarie assesses the divestment of the overseas construction and offshore development operations by Lendlease Group with management aiming to recognise $2.8bn in proceeds by FY25, net of -$1.15-1.475bn in impairments.

The company aims to sell -$4.5bn of assets and works with the broker highlighting management's key challenge will be executing divestments with limited impairments.

Macquarie notes the company did not re-affrim its 8-10% group return on equity target but aims for it to remain sustainably above the cost of equity.

The positive outcome, according to the analyst, is a simpler business model targeting over 60% capital allocation and 50% of EBITDA from investments.

No changes were made to the earnings forecasts. Macquarie is on research restriction.

Current Price is $6.24. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $7.12, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LLC as Equal-weight (3) -

The day after Lendlease Group's strategy update, Morgan Stanley learnt from management the $500m buyback is not dependent upon finalisation of all asset sales and gearing to drop within 5-15% of target.

As long as management is confident/has line-of-sight of de-leveraging, the buyback could occur earlier, explains the broker.

Also, the company understands the need to restock the Australian pipeline, observe the analysts, and is targeting a mix of shovel-ready developments to complement the traditional long-dated urbanisation projects.

The Equal-weight rating and $7.35 target are maintained. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $7.35 Current Price is $6.24 Difference: $1.11
If LLC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.12, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LLC as No Rating (-1) -

Ord Minnett is reviewing Lendlease Group post the announcement to sell most of its international business and concentrate on Australian operations.

The broker views the development as likely to trigger charges and impairments, and more details are expected at the FY24 results in Augist.

Management aims for gearing to fall into the 5% to 15% range and expects this to be achieved by the end of FY26.

Rating and target under review.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $6.24 Difference: $6.76
If LLC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 108% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.12, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates MZZ as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners notes similar initial results (to those at Matador Mining's Malachite project) utilising the same exploration methodology, have been successful in discovering multi-million ounce deposits.

The analysts made this claim after the company announced assay results from the remaining 110 drill holes of the 157 hole reverse circulation drill program.

Buy and 19c target retained.

Target price is $0.19 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0.116
If MZZ meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 157% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie remains positive on Origin Energy despite lower oil prices and the impact on its APLNG due to the offset from higher power prices.

The analyst points to a lift in the outlook for NSW pricing and the growth of renewables should see $300/MWh cap prices remaining high which supports gas plants and new batteries.

Macquarie also highlights the extension of the Eraring power station’s operational life, which is projected to generate income of $132-317m p.a. in FY26/FY27.

Earnings forecasts are adjusted by 0.2%, 4& and 11.2% for FY24 through to FY26, respectively. The upcoming Investor Day is expected to provide clarity on dividend policies and potential increases.

Outperform rating retained and the target raised to $10.52 from $10.14.

Target price is $10.52 Current Price is $10.36 Difference: $0.16
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.89, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PEN as Buy (1) -

Peninsula Energy is now fully funded through to positive cash flow at the Lance Uranium Project, suggests Shaw and Partners, following the larger-than-anticipated $105.9m equity raising at 10cps. 

Now, there is no requirement for debt or cash from the in-the-money options (exercisable at 10c), which removes the most significant factor over-hanging the company's share price, in the analysts' view.

The broker's Buy rating is maintained and the target falls to 26c from 31c due to equity dilution.

In an interesting aside, Shaw notes Peninsula has an enterprise valuation around 1/10th that of Boss Energy ((BOE)), yet there are many similarities between the companies.

For example, the analysts note both companies have in-situ leach uranium operations in first world jurisdictions, and both will produce around 2mlb/yr and be in production within a year.

Target price is $0.26 Current Price is $0.11 Difference: $0.15
If PEN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 136% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PLY as Buy, High Risk (1) -

For the fourth time, notes Shaw and Partners, Playside Studios has upgraded FY24 earnings guidance, this time to between $16-18m, up from $11-13m.

Playside and Warner Bros have jointly announced Game of Thrones is the IP they will be working on together, and the first title will be a real-time strategy (RTS) game based on the fantasy drama television series.

The broker highlights Game of Thrones brings a large and engaged audience due to the ratings success after eight seasons on HBO.

Shaw and Partners reiterates a Buy, High Risk  rating and the target climbs to $1.00 from 90c.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.96 Difference: $0.045
If PLY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PME as Outperform (1) -

Pro Medicus announced five new contracts with a combined minimum value of $45m, expected to contribute around $8m p.a. and be completed within the next 6 months, notes Macquarie.

The analyst expects these contracts will expand the company's total contract value for FY24 to $245m, highlighting the strength of its 'Full Stack' product offering and trend towards cloud deployment.

Macquarie remains positive on the medium to long-term outlook and revises the EPS forecasts by 3% and 9% for FY24 and FY25, respectively, reflecting the new contracts and updated forex assumptions. 

Outperform rating and the target adjusted to $127.50 from $120.

Target price is $127.50 Current Price is $114.31 Difference: $13.19
If PME meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $80.40, suggesting downside of -30.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PME as Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett assesses the latest contract wins for Pro Medicus as already discounted in the analyst's earnings forecasts.

The broker highlights concerns over the company's high valuation and earnings sustainability in a very competitive environment, where rivals such as Intelerad, Sectra, and Change Healthcare pose significant threats.

The current PER multiple is seen as unjustifiable given these competitive pressures and the potential for earnings volatility. 

Sell rating and $34.50 target retained.

Target price is $34.50 Current Price is $114.31 Difference: minus $79.81 (current price is over target).
If PME meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $80.40, suggesting downside of -30.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PMV as Overweight (1) -

Premier Investments remains Morgan Stanley's preferred exposure in retail, especially as progress is made on the demerger of Peter Alexander (the jewel in the company's crown) and Smiggle.

The broker believes the market under-appreciates Peter Alexander's growth potential as it is hidden within the greater conglomerate structure.

After an increase in multiple, the broker's valuation for Peter Alexander rises to $2.6bn, or around $16.25/share.

The Overweight rating is maintained for Premier Investments and the target rises to $39.50 from $38.00. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $39.50 Current Price is $29.47 Difference: $10.03
If PMV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.20, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PWR as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Citi downgrades its rating for Peter Warren Automotive to Sell from Neutral and lowers the target to $1.70 from $2.40 after being surprised by the magnitude of the earnings decline evident in yesterday's trading update.

The analysts believe 2H gross margins have contracted by around -110bps, all driven by discounting on new cars, and see a "dreary" outlook for the dealership industry.

Should consumer demand soften further, given the lag between OEMs reducing production orders and current volume estimates, the broker sees further downside risks.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.87 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If PWR meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.23, suggesting upside of 126.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PWR as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley discerns from the trading update by Peter Warren Automotive profit before tax missed forecasts by the broker and consensus by -21% and -23%, respectively.

While the gross margin contracted from increased supply, revenues were likely higher on backlog release, explain the analysts.

The broker also notes an incremental reduction in demand, and an increase in interest costs due to higher inventory. Opex tailwinds are expected from management changes in March this year and a broader focus on costs.

Overweight. Target $3.00. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $1.87 Difference: $1.13
If PWR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.23, suggesting upside of 126.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PWR as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Ord Minnett assesses the recent trading update from Peter Warren Automotive as weaker than expected, with new car margins being crimped due to improved supply and lower demand.

The analyst notes the weakness is unsurprising given some of the recent announcements from competitors.

Management points to revenue holding up, but lower margins underpin a decrease in profit before tax guidance of $52-57m for FY24.

The broker highlights this implies a significant reduction in margins, with 2H2024 profit before tax expected to fall to a $20m mid-point.

The earnings estimates are downgraded substantially. The rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy with the target price reduced to $1.95 from $3.30.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $1.87 Difference: $0.08
If PWR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.23, suggesting upside of 126.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QUB as Buy (1) -

Qube Holdings will have a dominant position for the importation of cars in the three major cities on the east coast of Australia, explains Citi.

This view was formed after Australian Amalgamated Terminals (a subsidiary of Qube) acquired Melbourne International RoRo & Automotive Terminal (MIRRAT). It's estimated circa 85% of the 1.1m cars imported into Australia each year will be via the combined entities.

Buy rating. The target rises to $4.15 from $3.95.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $3.63 Difference: $0.52
If QUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.91, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QUB as Accumulate (2) -

Qube Holdings announced the intention to acquire 100% of Melbourne International RoRo & Automotive Terminal (MIRRAT) for $332.5m, enhancing its existing facilities at Port Kembla and Fisherman’s Island, Ord Minnett notes.

The acquisition is expected to be modestly EPS positive in year one, subject to ACCC and Port of Melbourne approval, notes the analyst.

Ord Minnett highlights the transaction aligns with the company's strategy of acquiring high-quality, hard-to-replicate assets, providing upside through volume growth and efficiency improvements.

The broker makes no changes to earnings forecasts. Accumulate rating and $3.87 target, raised from $3.86.

Target price is $3.87 Current Price is $3.63 Difference: $0.24
If QUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.91, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates RFG as Buy (1) -

Retail Food has updated investors with progress on its business improvement initiatives, which Shaw and Partners believes are on track to benefit shareholders by materially lifting FY26 earnings.

The broker highlights various initiatives including: the Beefy’s roll out and company-owned store acceleration: franchise expansion
programs; and a new CRM technology in pizza.

Management re-iterated FY24 EBITDA guidance in the range of $28-$32m.

The Buy rating and the 10c target are maintained.

Target price is $0.10 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0.031
If RFG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGM as Buy (1) -

The Citi analyst views the worst is over for steel scrap markets and suggests the investment proposition for Sims should be revisited.

US steel demand has been weak, but the US Citi metals and & mining analyst expects demand should improve as warehouse construction stabilises and data centre builds grow alongside demand increases from the US$100bn infrastructure bill.

China mills are also forecast to use more scrap due to the price differentials from higher raw material costs (iron ore and met coal), notes the broker.

Steel production in Turkey is also recovering, although Citi highlights the share price has disconnected from Turkish scrap metal prices.

The Buy rating and $13.50 target are retained.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $10.82 Difference: $2.68
If SGM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.70, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGP as Buy (1) -

Stockland is expecting to generate $1.1bn of gross development revenue, after today announcing a new land lease partnership with Invesco, as part of a 3Q trading update.

Citi's first impression is the near-term financial impact will be limited, but Stockland should derive profit uplift from selling land into the partnership. 

Overall, the analysts believe Stockland will  generate better returns on capital in the land lease business, where it already has a partnership with Mitsubishi estates.

Buy and $5.20 target retained. No commentary provided by Citi, as yet, on the 3Q trading update.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.57 Difference: $0.63
If SGP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.05, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SKO as Buy (1) -

Serko reported FY24 earnings results with Ord Minnett pointing to a significant improvement in free cash flow, narrowing the loss from -NZ$32.6m in FY23 to -NZ$7.1m in FY24, driven by the incremental impact of the Booking.com deal.

Management revised revenue guidance for FY25 down to NZ$88-92m, reflecting a challenging economic climate in Europe is much lower than the analyst's expectations.

The extension of the Booking.com deal until March 2029 removes uncertainty around the stock and  the analyst expects potential upside for a contract opportunity.

There are "material" declines in the EPS forecasts, highlights Ord Minnett.

Buy rating unchanged. Target lowered to $4.25 from $5.45.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $2.87 Difference: $1.38
If SKO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.13, suggesting upside of 43.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SMP as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Bell Potter saw how SmartPay's FY24 earnings result met expectations.

Revenue growth of 24.1% year-on-year was viewed as "soft" but offset by a lower cost base, which declined to 34.8% of revenues against 38.2% in FY23.

The broker highlights considerably weaker free cashflows from internal software development, hardware inventories and other network infrastructure spend ahead of the 3G shutdown.

The higher churn rate is a surprise to Bell Potter and the broker lowers the FY25 EPS forecast by -29%.

Rating downgraded to a Hold from Buy and the target price lowered to $1.30 from $1.76.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.26 Difference: $0.04
If SMP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SMP as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners assesses a "broadly positive" FY24 result for SmartPay with cash costs of NZ$81.5m lower than the NZ$86.9m forecast, on revenue which missed the broker's estimate by -2%.

Cash EBITDA margins increased to 16.3% in H2 from 11.7% in H1 suggesting to the broker an inflection point deriving from investment in the company's technology platform.

The Buy rating is kept, with the analysts noting the New Zealand opportunity continues to provide material upside over the long term. The $2.20 target is also retained.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.26 Difference: $0.94
If SMP meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 75% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates STN as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Results from completed metallurgical test work highlight the amenability of Saturn Metals' Apollo Hill ore to heap leaching, explains Shaw and Partners. Heap leach processing accounts for approximately 46% of global gold production.

The broker highlights Apollo Hill could become a centralised processing hub for a camp-scale gold province in the region.

The Buy, High Risk rating and 44c target are maintained.

Target price is $0.44 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.2
If STN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 83% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TRS as Equal-weight (3) -

Following a trading update, Morgan Stanley lowers its target for Reject Shop to $3.70 from $4.75 as gross margin pressure and cost-of-doing-business (CODB) weigh, despite ongoing improvement for customer count and units per basket.

FY24 EBIT guidance of $4.0-5.5m (pre AASB-16) compares to $13.3m in the previous corresponding period.

Sales growth has moderated to 4.1% in the 2H so far, after tracking at 4.8% at the start of the 2H, explains the broker.

All up, there is negative earnings momentum and clear pressures in terms of mix, shrinkage and cost inflation, and the broker feels inflationary pressures will be hard to offset.

The Equal-weight rating is maintained. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: $0.32
If TRS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.18, suggesting upside of 29.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources