Australian Broker Call

Morgans rates ALQ as Add (1) -

Morgans considers data on capital raisings to be a strong indicator of ALS Ltd's geochemistry sample volumes. The broker notes meaningfully positive raisings data in October coincided with the company returning to 9-10% growth in the March quarter.

The data now point to 15-20% growth in the short to medium term, the broker highlights. The regression analysis suggests commodities' revenue could rise 16% in FY27 and by 24% in FY27, excluding the impact of pricing/mix benefits.

The broker has considered this analysis in forecasts, but at a more conservative level, which show EPS rising by 18% in both FY26 and FY27.

Add. Target lifts to $20.50 from $17.50.

Target price is $20.50 Current Price is $17.64 Difference: $2.86
If ALQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.75, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BEN as Sell (5) -

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank's 3Q25 cash earnings were lower vs 1H25 average, albeit in line with market expectations.

Commentary suggests the key takeaway was a stable net interest margin (NIM) as the bank slowed mortgage growth and corrected deposit pricing to maintain margin.

Still, the broker believes managing margin pressure will be tough given interest rate cuts and as the benefits from replicating portfolio diminish.

The broker's forecast is for a weakening NIM profile, with FY26 estimated at 1.81% and FY27 at 1.78% vs FY25 forecast of 1.87%.

Sell. Target unchanged at $9.75.

Target price is $9.75 Current Price is $11.78 Difference: minus $2.03 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.44, suggesting downside of -12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BOE as Buy (1) -

President Trump’s executive orders on 23 May aim to accelerate nuclear reactor development in the US, with near-term demand impact limited to a potential 1% uplift from reactor upgrades.

The January 20 Energy Emergency declaration may have a greater immediate effect, suggests the broker, by fast-tracking US mine approvals, which poses a mild negative for global uranium supply dynamics.

Positively, deployment of small advanced reactors in the 2030's should be expedited.

The broker maintains its Buy rating and $6.00 target for Boss Energy. The company remains the most heavily shorted stock on the ASX but shorts had declined to 21.5% on May 20 from a peak of 26%, note the analysts.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $4.27 Difference: $1.73
If BOE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.97, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates CCR as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners slightly upgrades its FY26 and FY27 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts following Credit Clear's guidance update. This confirmed $2m in annualised cost savings and reiterated FY25 EBITDA guidance of over $7m.

FY25 revenue guidance was revised down to $46-48m, below the broker’s forecast by -$1.1m, attributed to delayed receivables collection from a small number of clients facing operational issues.

Despite the modest revenue downgrade, the broker expects 37% earnings growth in FY26, supported by cost-saving initiatives and growth from both existing and new clients.

Management is actively exploring acquisition opportunities, likely in New Zealand and the UK, with its digital-led model showing proven success in Australia, and has $10m in net cash to support potential deals, notes the analyst.

Shaw maintains a Buy rating with a $0.44 target price.

Target price is $0.44 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.2
If CCR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 83% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DUR as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett details how Duratec usually "fine tunes" earnings guidance into fiscal year end, and for the second year in a row the company has downgraded the outlook.

FY25 revenue guidance has slipped by –7% at the midpoint, with earnings guidance down by –5% also at the midpoint, due to unfavourable and unseasonal weather as well as delays in several defence and mining contracts, the broker notes.

Management did point to a pickup in May and June, indicating more robust performance.

While Ord Minnett lowers earnings estimates by –7% and –8% for FY25/FY26, respectively, the new analyst (coverage changed) believes the setbacks are only short term and the longer-term fundamentals remain positive.

No change to Accumulate rating. Target price lowered to $1.60 from $1.72.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: $0.15
If DUR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.77, suggesting upside of 22.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ELD as Buy (1) -

Elders delivered 1H25 underlying earnings (EBIT) of $64.3m, broadly in line with Bell Potter's forecast, supported by strength in real estate and wholesale, though offset by a softer retail performance.

Underlying profit rose 165% year-on-year to $38.3m, aided by a lower-than-expected tax rate, explains the broker, while revenue grew 5% to $1,413m.

Operating cash flow was weaker due to timing impacts from livestock receivables, though net debt improved to $279.8m, and, point out the analysts, capital raising proceeds of $239m will support the pending Delta Agribusiness acquisition.

Commentary suggests the outlook remains constructive with a sound livestock market, average winter crop forecasts, and a positive real estate environment.

Bell Potter maintains a Buy rating and a $9.10 target price, viewing successful closure of the Delta transaction as a key re-rating catalyst.

Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $6.16 Difference: $2.94
If ELD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.81, suggesting upside of 39.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ELD as Buy (1) -

Citi cut the target price on Elders to $8.60 from $9.75 after lowering EPS forecasts as well as the valuation multiple. 

Buy retained as the broker's optimism for 2H increased after the conference call with company management post results. The broker sees a prospect for an uplift in demand for post-emergent Crop Protection products, which are higher margin versus pre-emergent.

Other upside catalysts include backward integration, small acquisitions and wool handling. The broker is also positive about the outlook for livestock and real estate services.

Elders' 1H25 earnings report came in below the broker's expectations with dry weather impacting more than anticipated across Victoria and South Australia.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $6.16 Difference: $2.44
If ELD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.81, suggesting upside of 39.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ELD as No Rating (-1) -

Elders reported 1H25 earnings before interest and tax up 67%, but this was below Macquarie's forecast by –18%, with a strong recovery in Agency offset by weaker volumes and prices for AgChem, the analyst details.

Dry weather conditions impacted AgChem in SA and Western VIC, which resulted in more competitive pricing and reduced volumes.

The broker highlights the Agency business as the "standout," including a gross margin improvement of 37% across price and volume, boosted by acquisitions.

Macquarie lowers EPS forecasts by –18% for FY25 and –14% for FY26 due to softer AgChem price/volumes and slower margin recovery, respectively. The company and broker expect seasonal conditions to improve in 2H25.

Due to research restrictions, Macquarie is unable to provide a rating or target price.

Current Price is $6.16. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $8.81, suggesting upside of 39.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ELD as Add (1) -

Morgans notes Elders' 1H25 result showed strong growth in underlying EBIT and net profit, but it was still weaker than expected. Within that, 1Q performed well while 2Q was affected by cyclone and drought.

The company presented an 8-point plan to deliver 5-10% EBIT growth through the cycle, and the broker noted optimism for 2H.

But weaker 1H result and a delay in getting ACCC approval for the Delta Agribusiness acquisition have resulted in cuts to forecasts. The broker reduced the contribution from Delta in FY25 to $5m from $12.5m estimated before.

FY25 EPS forecast cut by -12.7% and FY26 by -11.3%.

Add. Target cut to $8.55 from $9.52.

Target price is $8.55 Current Price is $6.16 Difference: $2.39
If ELD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.81, suggesting upside of 39.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FPH as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley expects Fisher & Paykel Healthcare's FY25 results (due out tomorrow) to align with guidance, forecasting revenue of NZ$2.01bn and profit of NZ$359m.

It's thought outcomes will be supported by robust hospital segment trends and product innovation in Homecare.

Gross margin expansion in FY26 may be limited due to new US tariffs on NZ-manufactured products, suggest the analysts.

The broker's key areas of focus include uptake of newer masks (Solo, Nova Micro) and potential impacts of GLP-1 therapies on obstructive sleep apnoea market growth.

Morgan Stanley maintains an Equal-weight rating with a price target of NZ$36.70, citing balanced upside and downside risks. Industry view: In-Line.

Current Price is $33.33. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMD as Neutral (3) -

Genesis Minerals is acquiring Focus Minerals' ((FML)) Laverton gold project for -$250m to supply open pit and underground ore to its operating Laverton mill.

Citi reckons the deal is attractive on both dollars/resource basis and institutional value. The added resource further bolsters the case for a plant expansion or a new mill.

The broker highlights the company has done well, acquiring a project in trucking distance to its mills.

Neutral. Target lifts to $4.40 from $4.00.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.43 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If GMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.17, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates GMD as Hold (3) -

Genesis Minerals has acquired Focus Minerals’ ((FML)) 4moz Laverton Gold Project (1.7g/t) for -$250m, funded through cash and an upsized corporate revolver now totalling $225m. Shaw and Partners notes this deal supports the company’s ten-year growth strategy.

The acquisition, which cost -$63 per resource ounce, consolidates Genesis’ position in the Laverton region and optimises ore sources for its reactivated 3mtpa Laverton Mill, highlight the analysts.

FY25 production guidance remains 190-210koz at a cost (AISC) of $2,200-2,400/oz.

Shaw maintains a Hold rating and a $4.00 target price, with no changes to production or earnings forecasts.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.43 Difference: minus $0.43 (current price is over target).
If GMD meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.17, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GMG as Overweight (1) -

Prior to Goodman Group's 3Q update tomorrow, Morgan Stanley anticipates investor focus will centre more on data centre progress than earnings per share (EPS) upgrades.

Consensus is expecting FY25 EPS growth of 10.1% to 118.4cps versus guidance of 9%. The market is likely to respond positively if management reports strong development yields, particularly near 8-10%, suggests the broker.

The analysts believe yields in this range would signal profitability from data centre commencements like the 49.5MW Vernon project.

Investors will be looking for updates on customer contracts and joint venture partnerships for data centres, though Morgan Stanley acknowledges it may be too early for formal announcements.

The company's restocking activity in Australia and potential new US joint ventures with institutional capital are seen as key to lifting third-party assets under management (AUM) and FY26 development profits.

The Overweight rating and $37.50 target are retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $37.50 Current Price is $32.84 Difference: $4.66
If GMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.44, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IAG as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie assesses the insurance claims index for March and estimates like-for-like claims inflation around 3.3% for the March quarter for Personal Motor, including parts at 3.5% and labour at 3.4%, and circa 2.9% for Home, which is in line with the previous year.

The broker highlights the data infer claims inflation for Home reached a peak in the December 2022 quarter, with Personal Motor peaking in the March 2023 quarter.

Looking at the UK EV experience, there is an emerging disconnect, the analyst explains, between economic data and insurance, which is attributed to the mix shift to EVs and the interconnection with vehicle parts.

UK EV claims were about 25.5% more expensive than ICE vehicles and took around 14% longer to repair.

Macquarie believes both Insurance Australia Group and Suncorp Group ((SUN)) are repricing insurance ahead of claims inflation, with underlying margins expected to peak in FY25.

Target set at $8.70. Neutral rated, with a preference for Suncorp over Insurance Australia Group.

Target price is $8.70 Current Price is $8.66 Difference: $0.04
If IAG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.79, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates INA as Buy (1) -

Citi believes the outlook for land lease developers is improving due to optimism in housing and price growth recovery in regional areas.

The broker reckons interest rate cuts and first home buyer stimulus will drive existing house sales, which is positive for land lease developers.

A moderation on construction costs is also expected to be positive for margins going into FY26.

The broker's top pick in land lease space is Ingenia Communities, with strong potential for margin recovery expected to drive earnings growth. 

Buy. Target unchanged at $6.50.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.73 Difference: $0.77
If INA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.30, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LIC as Buy (1) -

Citi believes the outlook for land lease developers is improving due to optimism in housing and price growth recovery in regional areas.

The broker reckons interest rate cuts and first home buyer stimulus will drive existing house sales, which is positive for land lease developers.

A moderation on construction costs is also expected to be positive for margins going into FY26.

The broker's top pick in land lease space is Ingenia Communities ((INA)) vs Lifestyle Communities. Upside for the REIT relies on sales recovery in Melbourne and resolution to the Victorian Tribunal complaints about its contract structure.

Buy. Target unchanged at $9.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.21 Difference: $1.79
If LIC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.40, suggesting upside of 30.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LOT as Speculative Buy (1) -

President Trump’s executive orders on 23 May aim to accelerate nuclear reactor development in the US, with near-term demand impact limited to a potential 1% uplift from reactor upgrades.

The January 20 Energy Emergency declaration may have a greater immediate effect, suggests the broker, by fast-tracking US mine approvals, which poses a mild negative for global uranium supply dynamics.

Positively, deployment of small advanced reactors in the 2030's should be expedited.

The broker maintains its Speculative Buy rating and 35c target for Lotus Resources.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.145
If LOT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.33, suggesting upside of 62.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LOV as Sell (5) -

Citi's analysis of Lovisa Holdings' store data, this time based on LinkedIn, suggests Lovisa appears to have hit 1,000 stores, suggesting the 1,001 stores factored into consensus forecasts for FY25 may prove conservative.

Commentary states this outcome remains consistent with Citi's recent report which flagged a recent acceleration in the rollout and is likely to be received positively by the market.

The broker did previously question the quality of some new stores based on proprietary research. Citi also notes CEO Victor Herrero will be leaving the company this week and continues to hold circa 3% of shares outstanding in the company.

Apart from when might he be selling? the broker suggests with a new CEO arriving in June, there's a level of strategic uncertainty which doesn't seem yet reflected in the share price.

Sell. Target $25.86.

Target price is $25.86 Current Price is $27.96 Difference: minus $2.1 (current price is over target).
If LOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.68, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates MAU as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Following the news Genesis Minerals will acquire the Laverton Gold project from Focus Minerals ((FML)), Shaw and Partners highlights Magnetic Resources as a standout gold development opportunity amid broader industry consolidation,.

Reportedly, in the same region companies like Evolution Mining ((EVN)), Northern Star Resources ((NST)) and Regis Resources ((RRL)) are reviewing assets such as Bellevue Gold ((BGL)).

The Buy, High Risk rating and $2.53 target are maintained for Magnetic Resources.

Target price is $2.53 Current Price is $1.67 Difference: $0.86
If MAU meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORG as Buy (1) -

Origin Energy upgraded guidance for FY25 EBITDA to $1.3-1.4bn on strong operational improvements and wholesale portfolio benefits. Citi notes it is an 8% lift at the midpoint.

The upgrade confirms the broker's view the company is well-positioned to benefit from increased market volatility without relying on high-cost generation.

At the same time, the company cut the FY25 EBITDA forecast for Octopus Energy to a loss of up to -$100m from the previous guidance of a $100m contribution. This was due to unseasonably warm weather across March and April in the UK, and a one-off write-down linked to the UK government's energy guarantee.

No change to the broker's investment thesis.

Buy. Target unchanged at $11.50.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $10.51 Difference: $0.99
If ORG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.57, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORG as Neutral (3) -

Origin Energy updated FY25 earnings guidance, with the lower end of Energy Markets raised to $1.3bn, bringing the range to $1.3bn–$1.4bn, Macquarie explains, with consensus previously at $1.32bn and an upgrade of around 2.3% at the midpoint.

The broker notes gas performed better, as were the results from the renewable energy certificates, as well as electricity pricing.

In contrast, the UK’s Octopus reduced earnings expectations by around –GBP220m, including -GBP100m from weather impacts, including a wind drought in March and April.

Macquarie lowers earnings estimates by –4% for FY25 and –3% for FY26. No change to Neutral rating and $10 target price.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $10.51 Difference: minus $0.51 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.57, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORG as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley expects a modest negative share price reaction following Origin Energy's twin updates in May.

These included a -$55m downgrade to Origin's share of APLNG earnings (EBITDA) for 2H FY25 due to a 1-percentage point slope reduction in the Sinopec contract, explain the analysts.

FY25 Energy Markets guidance was narrowed to $1.3-4bn from $1.1-1.4bn, in line with Morgan Stanley's forecast of $1,326m.

Octopus Energy's guidance was cut sharply, now expecting up to a -$100m earnings loss versus earlier forecasts of up to $100m positive contribution.

The latter reflects adverse UK weather, continued platform investment, and legacy regulatory effects, explains the broker.

Morgan Stanley retains an Underweight rating with a price target of $9.26, highlighting downside risks from margin pressure and exposure to volatile energy markets. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $9.26 Current Price is $10.51 Difference: minus $1.25 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.57, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORG as Hold (3) -

Origin Energy has downgraded its guidance for Octopus Energy, its 23%-owned UK retail and technology platform, now expecting an underlying operating loss of up to -$100m versus prior guidance for a profit of up to $100m.

The revision is attributed to unseasonably warm UK weather, additional Kraken software costs, and regulatory adjustments to the British government’s energy price guarantee, explains the broker.

Despite this, group earnings guidance has narrowed upward to $1.3-1.4bn, supported by operational efficiencies and favourable conditions in Origin’s retail and wholesale markets, observes the analyst.

Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating, viewing Origin as a well-run business with a solid dividend yield and long-term appeal via energy transition exposure. The $10.40 target is maintained.

Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $10.51 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.57, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORG as Buy (1) -

Origin Energy's market update offered plenty for analysts at UBS to digest, including Kraken announcing its first major account in the US, adding some 6.5m accounts, as well as the second downgrade in 12 months for Octopus Energy's FY25 EBITDA guidance.

The AER's final decision on FY26 regulated retail electricity prices is seen adding upside versus the prior draft decision.

Now FY25 has been de-risked, UBS argues any share price weakness on the back of weaker trading dynamics should be treated as an opportunity to add exposure.

Estimates have been minimally reduced. Valuation remains $11.70. Buy.

Target price is $11.70 Current Price is $10.51 Difference: $1.19
If ORG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.57, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PDN as Buy (1) -

President Trump’s executive orders on 23 May aim to accelerate nuclear reactor development in the US, with near-term demand impact limited to a potential 1% uplift from reactor uprates.

The January 20 Energy Emergency declaration may have a greater immediate effect, suggests the broker, by fast-tracking US mine approvals, which poses a mild negative for global uranium supply dynamics.

Positively, deployment of small advanced reactors in the 2030's should be expedited.

The broker maintains its Buy rating and $9.50 target for Paladin Energy.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $6.28 Difference: $3.22
If PDN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.51, suggesting upside of 35.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RGN as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Bell Potter initiates coverage of Region Group with a Buy rating, highlighting its position as Australia’s largest owner of supermarket-based shopping centres.

Region Group is considered a resilient, low-beta REIT benefiting from defensive non-discretionary income streams.

The REIT is seen as well positioned for near-term rental growth, with specialty rents significantly below market averages and a sector-leading tenant occupancy cost ratio.

The stock currently trades at a modest -2% discount to net tangible assets (NTA), the narrowest in its peer group. Bell Potter anticipates this gap will close through sector cap rate compression and continued share buybacks.

Management has completed under 3% of its current buyback, with recent purchases around $2.30, reinforcing confidence in valuation, suggest the analysts.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.38 Difference: $0.27
If RGN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.33, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes the Mongolian government has filed a lawsuit against Rio Tinto for participating in bribery and corruption related to the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine.

The company and the Mongolian government have had disputes in the past, and there are allegations US$295m was offered to settle tax disputes in December 2024.

The broker highlights resolution to Entree Resources remains pending and would get delayed if the latest report is correct. The analyst's valuation for the 66% interest in Oyu Tolgoi is $18.60/share.

Equal-weight. Target unchanged at $119.50. The broker prefers BHP Group ((BHP)) over Rio Tinto. 

Target price is $119.50 Current Price is $115.21 Difference: $4.29
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $122.25, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SUN as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie assesses the insurance claims index for March and estimates like-for-like claims inflation around 3.3% for the March quarter for Personal Motor, including parts at 3.5% and labour at 3.4%, and circa 2.9% for Home, which is in line with the previous year.

The broker highlights the data infers claims inflation for Home reached a peak in the December 2022 quarter, with Personal Motor peaking in the March 2023 quarter.

Looking at the UK EV experience, there is an emerging disconnect, the analyst explains, between economic data and insurance, which is attributed to the mix shift to EVs and the interconnection with vehicle parts. UK EV claims were about 25.5% more expensive than ICE vehicles and took around 14% longer to repair.

Macquarie believes both Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)) and Suncorp Group are repricing insurance ahead of claims inflation, with underlying margins expected to peak in FY25.

The broker has a preference for Suncorp Group over Insurance Australia Group. No change to Neutral rating and $19.20 target.

Target price is $19.20 Current Price is $20.63 Difference: minus $1.43 (current price is over target).
If SUN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.11, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates VUL as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter initiates coverage of Vulcan Energy Resources with a Speculative Buy rating and values the stock at $6.10 per share.

The company's Lionheart Project in Germany’s Upper Rhine Valley is the EU’s first integrated geothermal-lithium brine operation, highlights the broker.

Management is targeting 24ktpa of lithium hydroxide and 95MW of renewable energy production over 30 years, with ramp-up from 2027.

The project incorporates advanced technologies and has been de-risked through pilot and demonstration facilities, assesses the broker. Supply agreements have also been secured from major OEMs including Volkswagen, Renault, Stellantis, and Umicore.

The company is pursuing EUR2.2bn in total funding, with EUR1.4bn conditionally approved and plans to divest up to -49% of Lionheart to meet equity needs, explain the analysts, supporting a final investment decision from 2H 2025.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $4.09 Difference: $2.01
If VUL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WEB as Underweight (5) -

Heading into Web Travel's FY25 results due out tomorrow, Morgan Stanley remains bearish. The Underweight rating and $3.40 target are maintained. Industry view: In-Line.

The broker highlights peer commentary indicating a softening in forward bookings across both B2B and B2C markets heading into the peak holiday season. It's felt the commentary on early FY26 trading, TTV growth and take rate, will be critical.

Management has not provided any updates to its lowered earnings (EBITDA) guidance of between $117-122m and 6.5% take rate.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $4.75 Difference: minus $1.35 (current price is over target).
If WEB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.61, suggesting upside of 19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WTC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley supports WiseTech Global’s acquisition of e2open for -US$2.1bn, viewing it as a strategically sound, financially accretive move that enhances CargoWise’s competitive moat.

The broker suggests the long-term earnings outlook should now improve despite short-term concerns about debt and integration risk.

The deal, fully funded through debt, will raise the company's net leverage to 3.5x earnings (EBITDA) in FY25, though management expects this to fall below 2x by FY28, aided by US$50m in synergies and a 40% lift in pro forma FY26 earnings.

The acquisition will expand WiseTech's total addressable market and create cross-selling opportunities across the supply chain, particularly with manufacturers and retailers, explain the analysts.

Overweight rating retained. Target unchanged at $140. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $140.00 Current Price is $104.75 Difference: $35.25
If WTC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WTC as Buy (1) -

WiseTech Global announced the acquisition of e2Open, a US SaaS logistics provider, for US$3.30 per share, which represents a premium of 28% to the last closing price, valuing the company at US$2.1bn. The deal will be funded through a US$3bn debt facility, UBS notes.

The purchase will raise gearing to 3.5x, with management confident it can be returned to under 2x within three years.

The broker emphasises confidence in the medium-term revenue drivers for the company at a 28% compound average growth rate, with upside if management can leverage the acquisition for more product offerings.

UBS is positive about e2Open as complementary to the existing product roadmap for end-to-end supply chain offerings.

There might be some margin dilution, the broker explains, but at least $50m in cost synergies are expected, and removing other inefficiencies could lift WiseTech's margin to 50% as targeted.

No change to Buy rating and $145 target price.

Target price is $145.00 Current Price is $104.75 Difference: $40.25
If WTC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources