Australian Broker Call
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September 15, 2020
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
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Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
CCP - | Credit Corp | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Macquarie |
HVN - | Harvey Norman Holdings | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Credit Suisse |
WES - | Wesfarmers | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Credit Suisse |
Macquarie rates ALD as Outperform (1) -
Despite a weak first half result Macquarie envisages earnings are recovering and finds the shares attractive at current levels. Moreover, the Australian government has announced a package to support the downstream fuel and refining sector.
Macquarie also notes Ampol plans to recommence refining at Lytton in Brisbane this month. New management has already executed on an unlisted property trust deal although the broker believes takeover interest could resume.
Outperform maintained. Target rises to $31.90 from $31.80.
Target price is $31.90 Current Price is $24.02 Difference: $7.88
If ALD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $29.08, suggesting upside of 24.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 38.00 cents and EPS of 73.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.9, implying annual growth of -42.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 73.00 cents and EPS of 121.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 156.7, implying annual growth of 80.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 94.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates ALD as Accumulate (2) -
The Commonwealth government has announced support for domestic diesel storage and local refineries with around $2.3m to be allocated over 10 years to the industry.
Ord Minnett believes this will be insufficient to offset the current cash burn, given the weak refiner margins.
Retail fuel margins remain strong in 2020, indicative of a rational industry that is responding to excessive growth insights amid a focus on cash flow, the broker asserts. Accumulate and $30 target retained.
Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $24.02 Difference: $5.98
If ALD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $29.08, suggesting upside of 24.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 91.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.9, implying annual growth of -42.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 103.00 cents and EPS of 172.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 156.7, implying annual growth of 80.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 94.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $8.96
Credit Suisse rates ALQ as Outperform (1) -
Momentum in gold prices has underpinned a recovery in exploration activity from the trough in March. Given the upbeat outlook, Credit Suisse expects this momentum will persist for at least the next 12-18 months.
As the company's commodities division has a high exposure to gold, a resurgence in geochemical sample flows is likely in the near term.
The broker raises FY22 and FY23 net profit estimates by 7%. Outperform reiterated. Target rises to $9.75 from $8.00.
Target price is $9.75 Current Price is $8.96 Difference: $0.79
If ALQ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.54, suggesting downside of -6.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 22.89 cents and EPS of 37.75 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.1, implying annual growth of 25.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.5. |
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 27.83 cents and EPS of 45.89 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.7, implying annual growth of 23.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
APE EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED
Automobiles & Components
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Overnight Price: $9.00
UBS rates APE as Buy (1) -
Eagers Automotive has announced that it will purchase eight strategically located sites (currently leased) from Charter Hall Group ((CHC)) for $105m.
UBS sees the benefit of an immediate reduction in operating costs. A reduction of around -$7m in annual lease payments is partially replaced by circa -$3.5m of interest expense.
In addition, the company can remove four sites from its Queensland dealership network by 2022. This delivers a structural reduction in costs for staff, rent and other costs, without impacting sales volumes, according to the broker.
UBS notes the company has an additional $120m available under its property funding deals with Toyota and VW to pursue other strategic acquisitions.
Buy rating and target price of $10 are unchanged.
Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $9.00 Difference: $1
If APE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.32, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.9. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.5, implying annual growth of 51.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $9.40
Ord Minnett rates AQG as No Rating (-1) -
Final regulatory clearance has been received regarding the merger with Canada's SSR Mining. Ord Minnett suspends coverage of Alacer Gold pending the admission of SSR Mining to the official list of the ASX later this week.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Current Price is $9.40. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $10.07, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6. |
Forecast for FY21:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 103.4, implying annual growth of 27.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CCP CREDIT CORP GROUP LIMITED
Business & Consumer Credit
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Overnight Price: $17.66
Macquarie rates CCP as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
Macquarie assesses current conditions are affecting the level of debt sales in Australia, and while US markets remain more active pricing is above the company's targets.
The broker had expected forward flow sales and new business would recommence in August/September but the risk is now for activity being stalled until November.
The broker downgrades to Neutral from Outperform as the risk of ongoing delays in new debt sales and forward flow activity could have a negative effect on earnings in the short term. Target is reduced to $18.50 from $20.70.
Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $17.66 Difference: $0.84
If CCP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $19.92, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 92.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.4, implying annual growth of 282.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6. |
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 120.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 115.3, implying annual growth of 18.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.82
Morgans rates CRN as Add (1) -
Coronado Global Resources raised US$180m in new equity, thereby reducing gearing to around 23% from 41%. Additionally, banks have extended the debt covenant waivers to September 2021 from February 2021.
Morgans calculates these measures buy the company over 12 months of time at spot prices, after taking into account cash burn.
Meanwhile, improving coal market signals and the company’s leverage to the coal price are considered to be positive.
However, the broker notes the duration for which low coal prices persist is the key risk factor.
The Add rating is unchanged and the target price is decreased to $1.30 from $1.63.
Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.82 Difference: $0.48
If CRN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.40, suggesting upside of 53.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 13.29 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -14.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.91 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CWY CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT LIMITED
Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers
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Overnight Price: $2.34
Credit Suisse rates CWY as Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse notes the shares sold off on the back of an article in the press regarding an investigation of the CEO's workplace behaviour. The article suggested Vik Bansal led a culture of bullying and harassment which produced a high turnover rate in senior management and lower level employees.
Credit Suisse believes the board dealt with these matters appropriately after they were raised earlier in the year. Moreover, the renewed media attention on the CEO's conduct may have brought more scrutiny surrounding his sale of 73% of shares in August, raising concerns he may be moving on, which the broker considers unlikely. Credit Suisse retains a Neutral rating and $2.45 target.
Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.34 Difference: $0.11
If CWY meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.58 cents and EPS of 8.33 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.0, implying annual growth of 45.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.8. |
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 5.65 cents and EPS of 10.28 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.2, implying annual growth of 15.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates CWY as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley anticipates a negative reaction in the share price to the press article reporting on the investigation of the CEO for complaints about his behaviour.
The broker remains wary of the potential impact on the business as a strong corporate culture and reputation are material to winning and retaining government contracts.
Overweight rating. Target is $2.78. Industry view: Cautious.
Target price is $2.78 Current Price is $2.34 Difference: $0.44
If CWY meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.60 cents and EPS of 7.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.0, implying annual growth of 45.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.8. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 5.30 cents and EPS of 8.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.2, implying annual growth of 15.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FCL FINEOS CORPORATION HOLDINGS PLC
Cloud services
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Overnight Price: $4.98
Macquarie rates FCL as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie forecast 53% subscription growth in FY21 and notes existing clients are likely to contribute more than 50% of subscription growth over the next couple of years.
Hence, the broker calculates only modest growth from new clients is required to achieve revenue forecasts in FY21.
In FY22 the broker forecasts the contribution from three large client gains in FY19 plus the nine gained in FY20 will contribute around 60% of revenue growth. Outperform rating and $6.25 target retained.
Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $4.98 Difference: $1.27
If FCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.32 cents. |
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.33 cents. |
This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
HVN HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED
Consumer Electronics
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Overnight Price: $4.24
Credit Suisse rates HVN as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -
Credit Suisse upgrades forecasts for Harvey Norman, expecting a longer term boost to household goods expenditure than previously forecast.
The broker's investigations reveal behavioural changes are persistent, and when combined with a range of labour market and household income scenarios for FY21 produce a favourable outlook.
Moreover, Harvey Norman has a relatively low exposure to Melbourne's mandated retail closures as only 8% of stores are located in greater Melbourne. Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and the target lifted to $5.01 from $4.48.
Target price is $5.01 Current Price is $4.24 Difference: $0.77
If HVN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.79, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 26.82 cents and EPS of 42.07 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.5, implying annual growth of -9.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0. |
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 21.62 cents and EPS of 33.81 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.8, implying annual growth of -10.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates IGO as Buy (1) -
IGO has flagged the sale of Tropicana and UBS believes a successful sale could be a catalyst for a re-rating.
The broker agrees with management that the whole company is not being fully valued in the current share price. It's considered this gap in valuation may be closed in a number of ways including sensible merger and acquisition to extend the life of the nickel business. Additionally, capital returns or dividends to be announced in February 2021 would assist.
The Buy rating and target price of $5.70 are unchanged.
Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $4.63 Difference: $1.07
If IGO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.81, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of -32.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.8. |
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.2, implying annual growth of 31.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $9.73
Citi rates ILU as Neutral (3) -
Iluka Resources has released extensive details of the Deterra spin-off, which separates the MAC royalty stream, including Iluka shareholders receiving one for one Deterra shares while Iluka will retain a 20% stake.
Deterra will run a conservative balance sheet and pay out 100% of earnings as dividends.
Crunching the numbers and incorporating assumptions has the broker suggesting a 6.8% 2022 yield for Deterra and 4.6% for remaining Iluka. The broker retains Neutral, and a pre-demerger target prices of $10.50.
Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $9.73 Difference: $0.77
If ILU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.94, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 60.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 65.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.8, implying annual growth of 48.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $46.46
Credit Suisse rates JBH as Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse upgrades forecasts for JB Hi-Fi, expecting a longer boost to expenditure on household goods compared with previous forecasts.
The broker's analysis shows that in the past changes in expenditure behaviour have persisted, on average, for three quarters from inception.
While having 20% of stores in the greater Melbourne area is a headwind and online is unlikely to fully compensate, the broker notes online sales growth remains very strong and will be an important factor going forward.
Neutral maintained, as the broker envisages less valuation upside compared with Harvey Norman ((HVN)). Target rises to $50.21 from $47.37.
Target price is $50.21 Current Price is $46.46 Difference: $3.75
If JBH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $47.48, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 205.00 cents and EPS of 313.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 270.6, implying annual growth of 2.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 173.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3. |
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 168.00 cents and EPS of 256.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 250.4, implying annual growth of -7.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 163.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.49
Macquarie rates LEP as Neutral (3) -
Final rent determinations have been announced from the 2018 review with an average uplift of 4.4%. This was below Macquarie's expectations although upside is anticipated from capital management. The next rent review is in 2028, uncapped.
The broker reduces distributable estimates for earnings per share by -9.2% for FY21 and by -2.4% for FY22. Target is reduced to $4.58 from $4.69. Neutral maintained.
Target price is $4.58 Current Price is $4.49 Difference: $0.09
If LEP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 20.80 cents and EPS of 13.80 cents. |
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 23.80 cents and EPS of 16.30 cents. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates LEP as Lighten (4) -
The outcome of rent determinations for the company's 43 properties subject to outstanding 2018 rent reviews was substantially weaker than Ord Minnett expected.
The broker reduces earnings forecast for -15% for FY21 and -8% for FY22-23. The broker also moderates inflation forecasts and lowers distribution estimates by -12-13%. Lighten rating retained. Target is reduced to $3.60 from $4.40.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $4.49 Difference: minus $0.89 (current price is over target).
If LEP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MQG MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $120.20
Citi rates MQG as Neutral (3) -
Macquarie Group has warned its first half profit will be around -35% down year on year. The broker assumed a reduction, but this is a bit more than forecast.
That said, the broker believes the profit drop will prove just a blip, reflecting comparison with a very strong FY20 featuring solid asset sales meeting virus-impacted lower asset sale values in FY21. A pick-up is expected in the second half.
Neutral and $125 target retained.
Target price is $125.00 Current Price is $120.20 Difference: $4.8
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $125.15, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 380.00 cents and EPS of 632.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 628.5, implying annual growth of -20.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 387.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9. |
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 560.00 cents and EPS of 727.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 790.6, implying annual growth of 25.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 563.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Overweight (1) -
First half profit is guided to be down -35%, a better outcome the Morgan Stanley was anticipating. The broker expects 58% of profit will be recorded in the second half given the timing of gains on sale and impairment charges.
Impairments are expected to rise in FY21 as Macquarie Group has flagged issues in air finance and a build up in provisioning. While there was no full year guidance, the broker expects FY21 profit to fall -17%.
Morgan Stanley expects a FY21 dividend pay-out at the lower end of the 60-80% target range. Overweight rating and In-Line industry view. Target is raised to $133 from $120.
Target price is $133.00 Current Price is $120.20 Difference: $12.8
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $125.15, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 390.00 cents and EPS of 621.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 628.5, implying annual growth of -20.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 387.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 590.00 cents and EPS of 795.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 790.6, implying annual growth of 25.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 563.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates MQG as Add (1) -
As a result of a trading update by Macquarie Group, Morgans expects the first half FY21 profit to be down -25% on the second half FY20.
Morgans lowers EPS forecasts for FY21 and FY22 by -3% and -10%, respectively, mainly on reduced revenue expectations for Macquarie Capital and Commodities and Global Markets.
Outside of these divisions, FY21 headwinds remain largely unchanged, in the broker’s view.
While the company has not provided FY21 guidance, the analyst highlights typically there is a stronger skew to the second half.
The Add rating is unchanged and the target price is decreased to $130.40 from $133.40.
Target price is $130.40 Current Price is $120.20 Difference: $10.2
If MQG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $125.15, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 404.00 cents and EPS of 593.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 628.5, implying annual growth of -20.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 387.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 564.00 cents and EPS of 815.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 790.6, implying annual growth of 25.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 563.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates MQG as Accumulate (2) -
Macquarie Group expects its first half result to be around -35% below the prior corresponding half. This implies net profit of $950m, slightly ahead of Ord Minnett's prior expectations.
The broker envisages a wide range of possible outcomes for the full year depending on volatile items and impairments in the second half.
Over the longer term, Ord Minnett is attracted to structural growth drivers in the infrastructure and real assets category as well as green energy and Australian mortgages. Accumulate retained. Target is reduced to $130 from $133.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $130.00 Current Price is $120.20 Difference: $9.8
If MQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $125.15, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 410.00 cents and EPS of 658.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 628.5, implying annual growth of -20.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 387.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9. |
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 580.00 cents and EPS of 823.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 790.6, implying annual growth of 25.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 563.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates MQG as Neutral (3) -
Macquarie Group has announced, with two weeks remaining in the first half, it expects profit (NPAT) to be around $950m. This is around -25% lower than the second half of 2020.
The many factors driving the earnings pressure are unchanged in the view of UBS and include weakness in Commodities and Global Markets due to an easing of volatility, following a strong April and May. Additionally, investment income is likely to be significantly lower, impacting Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) and Macquarie Capital Markets.
The bank is highly leveraged to transaction activity and the outlook for deal flow remains very challenging, notes the broker.
Whilst EPS forecasts are downgraded, UBS raises the target price due to a lower cost of capital and higher peer multiples.
The Neutral rating is unchanged. The target price is increased to $125 from $105.
Target price is $125.00 Current Price is $120.20 Difference: $4.8
If MQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $125.15, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 380.00 cents and EPS of 615.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 628.5, implying annual growth of -20.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 387.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9. |
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 550.00 cents and EPS of 817.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 790.6, implying annual growth of 25.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 563.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $103.73
UBS rates RIO as Neutral (3) -
UBS prefers BHP Group ((BHP)) over Rio Tinto as there are less company-specific issues. After the destruction of the Juukan rock shelters and recently announced future management reshuffle, the broker sees two near-term challenges for the new CEO.
Apart from addressing reputational and operational issues in the Pilbara, the broker poses - Does the company exit or invest in the iron ore project (Simandou) in Guinea?
In addition, there is a capital expenditure overrun, some funding issues and other uncertainties to be addressed at the Oyu Tolgoi project in Mongolia.
The Neutral rating is unchanged and the target price is GB4,500p.
Target price is $102.00 Current Price is $103.73 Difference: minus $1.73 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $106.79, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 642.35 cents and EPS of 1015.95 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 923.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 567.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 599.53 cents and EPS of 999.71 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 920.6, implying annual growth of -0.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 630.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.48
Credit Suisse rates TAH as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse suggests current lottery trading may be tough in terms of comparables but is supporting forecasts. The broker's modelling 1% revenue growth in lotteries in FY21.
Flat revenue is considered achievable in the December half year in wagering, with growth anticipated over 2020 despite extended retail closures in Victoria. Outperform rating and $4.30 target retained.
Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.48 Difference: $0.82
If TAH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.86, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 14.83 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.5. |
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 17.27 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.3, implying annual growth of 19.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.61
Ord Minnett rates VEA as Accumulate (2) -
The Commonwealth government has announced support for domestic diesel storage and local refineries with around $2.3m to be allocated over 10 years to the industry.
Ord Minnett believes this will be insufficient to offset the current cash burn, given the weak refiner margins.
Retail fuel margins remain strong in 2020, indicative of a rational industry that is responding to excessive growth insights amid a focus on cash flow, the broker asserts. Accumulate rating and $2.20 target retained.
Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: $0.59
If VEA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.09, suggesting upside of 31.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.7, implying annual growth of -87.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 227.1. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.4, implying annual growth of 957.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $44.92
Credit Suisse rates WES as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -
Credit Suisse upgrades forecasts, expecting the boost to household goods expenditure will be longer than previously anticipated. Wesfarmers is also positioned to add value through strategic acquisitions in the industrials and home improvement sectors.
If acquisitions are not undertaken in 2021, a return of capital could become more likely, the broker adds. Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and the target lifted to $51.59 from $47.30.
Target price is $51.59 Current Price is $44.92 Difference: $6.67
If WES meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $44.81, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 181.00 cents and EPS of 189.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 172.6, implying annual growth of 20.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 153.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.0. |
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 169.00 cents and EPS of 188.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 183.6, implying annual growth of 6.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 159.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.16
Ord Minnett rates XF1 as Hold (3) -
FY20 results indicate Xref has successfully commenced cost control measures and is ahead of Ord Minnett's forecasts in terms of operating expenses for FY21.
Combined with a recently-announced $5m debt facility this alleviates the need for future capital raisings in the broker's forecasts.
The broker remains confident the company will benefit from a recovery after the pandemic although the exact timing is difficult to assess. Hold rating retained. Target is raised to $0.24 from $0.21.
Target price is $0.24 Current Price is $0.16 Difference: $0.08
If XF1 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.10 cents. |
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.70 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $90.81
UBS rates XRO as Sell (5) -
UBS has conducted an online survey of accountants across Australia, UK and the US, and highlights the key findings for Xero.
The survey covered views on SME accounting software and the impact of covid-19 on accountants' SME clients.
Xero's net promoter score (NPS) and satisfaction levels were highest of the major brands. The data were also positive for cloud penetration growth.
UBS notes accountants expect the rate of business closures to be higher than historic levels over the next 12 months.
Separately, the analysts acknowledges they may have penalised the company by using some harsh metrics in forecast models. After appropriate adjustments the Sell rating is unchanged, but the target price is increased to $72 from $58.50.
Target price is $72.00 Current Price is $90.81 Difference: minus $18.81 (current price is over target).
If XRO meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $79.50, suggesting downside of -12.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 33.01 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 359.3. |
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 11.32 cents and EPS of 58.47 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.6, implying annual growth of 107.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 172.8. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
ALD | AMPOL | $23.46 | Macquarie | 31.90 | 31.80 | 0.31% |
ALQ | ALS Limited | $9.10 | Credit Suisse | 9.75 | 8.00 | 21.88% |
AQG | Alacer Gold | $9.40 | Ord Minnett | N/A | 11.60 | -100.00% |
CCP | Credit Corp | $17.14 | Macquarie | 18.50 | 20.70 | -10.63% |
CRN | Coronado Global Resources | $0.91 | Morgans | 1.30 | 1.63 | -20.25% |
HVN | Harvey Norman Holdings | $4.26 | Credit Suisse | 5.01 | 4.48 | 11.83% |
JBH | JB Hi-Fi | $46.76 | Credit Suisse | 50.21 | 47.37 | 6.00% |
LEP | Ale Property Group | $4.29 | Macquarie | 4.58 | 4.69 | -2.35% |
Ord Minnett | 3.60 | 4.40 | -18.18% | |||
MQG | Macquarie Group | $118.60 | Morgan Stanley | 133.00 | 120.00 | 10.83% |
Morgans | 130.40 | 133.40 | -2.25% | |||
Ord Minnett | 130.00 | 133.00 | -2.26% | |||
UBS | 125.00 | 105.00 | 19.05% | |||
WES | Wesfarmers | $44.87 | Credit Suisse | 51.59 | 47.47 | 8.68% |
XF1 | Xref Ltd | $0.16 | Ord Minnett | 0.24 | 0.21 | 14.29% |
XRO | Xero | $90.90 | UBS | 72.00 | 58.50 | 23.08% |
Summaries
ALD | AMPOL | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $24.02 |
Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $24.02 | ||
ALQ | ALS Limited | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $8.96 |
APE | EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $9.00 |
AQG | Alacer Gold | No Rating - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $9.40 |
CCP | Credit Corp | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $17.66 |
CRN | Coronado Global Resources | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.82 |
CWY | Cleanaway Waste Management | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.34 |
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.34 | ||
FCL | Fineos Corp | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.98 |
HVN | Harvey Norman Holdings | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $4.24 |
IGO | IGO Co | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $4.63 |
ILU | Iluka Resources | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $9.73 |
JBH | JB Hi-Fi | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $46.46 |
LEP | Ale Property Group | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.49 |
Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.49 | ||
MQG | Macquarie Group | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $120.20 |
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $120.20 | ||
Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $120.20 | ||
Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $120.20 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $120.20 | ||
RIO | Rio Tinto | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $103.73 |
TAH | Tabcorp Holdings | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $3.48 |
VEA | Viva Energy Group | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $1.61 |
WES | Wesfarmers | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $44.92 |
XF1 | Xref Ltd | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $0.16 |
XRO | Xero | Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $90.81 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 12 |
2. Accumulate | 3 |
3. Hold | 9 |
4. Reduce | 1 |
5. Sell | 1 |
Tuesday 15 September 2020
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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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