Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates 29M as Outperform (1) -

A site visit has highlighted for Macquarie that 29Metals has multiple options for mining fronts at Golden Grove which proves the flexibility of the operation. One example is mining “closer to surface” copper rich ore, rather than deeper zinc rich ore during the June quarter.

The broker notes the miner is offering a forecast 17% free cash flow yield and has a strong balance sheet.

Outperform and $3.00 target retained.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: $1.39
If 29M meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 86% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.10, suggesting upside of 38.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates A2M as Neutral (3) -

Citi's store visits indicate a2 Milk Co's English label transition is underway, with old label products being cleared to make way. Investors are reminded such a transition has the potential to cause short term sales disruption.

Citi retains its Neutral rating and $4.64 target price.

Target price is $4.64 Current Price is $4.54 Difference: $0.1
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.05, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ABB as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse noted the slowdown in Residential broadband connections for Aussie Broadband in the FY22 guidance update and the better than expected integration of the OTW business.

The analysts observe that the miss on residential connections of 578.9k versus guidance of 580-585k was probably the result of increased promotions from competitors and some one-off impacts.

The positive integration of OTW is seen as a positive for the business to diversify the earnings stream away from the NBN resale and residential market to the enterprise market, notes Credit Suisse.

The broker adjusts earnings forecasts by 11.1% for FY22 and -2.4% for FY23 post the update.

Outperform. The target price is lowered to $4.80 from $5.00.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $3.05 Difference: $1.75
If ABB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ABB as Buy (1) -

Following a June quarter update by Aussie Broadband, Ord Minnett maintains its positive medium-term investment thesis. The target price is lowered to $4.69 from $5.10 due to a modest reduction in the earnings base and higher forecast cost of capital.

The broker leaves its subscriber number forecasts largely unchanged into FY23, while operating cost assumptions within the business segment are set 15% higher in FY23, net of synergies captured.

A strong contribution during the quarter from the Over the Wire acquisition, and $5m-$6m of captured synergies, sets the business up for a strong earnings contribution in FY23, according to the analyst. Buy.

Target price is $4.69 Current Price is $3.05 Difference: $1.64
If ABB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ALX as Hold (3) -

Morgans updates its forecast inflation and interest rate assumptions for stocks within its coverage of the Infrastructure sector.

For Atlas Arteria, the broker reduces its target price to $7.69 from $8.35 after assigning probablities to a takeover by IFM Investors (60%) and continuing with business as usual (40%). It's noted the share price will likely be volatile while uncertainty over the bid reigns. Hold.

Target price is $7.69 Current Price is $7.76 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If ALX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.12, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates APA as Hold (3) -

Morgans updates its forecast inflation and interest rate assumptions for stocks within its coverage of the Infrastructure sector.

For APA Group, the broker suggests trimming overweight positions, despite the defensive and inflation-linked nature of cashflows. It's felt the current share price is not allowing for potential corporate cost increases and sustaining capex increases.

The target is increased to $10.04 from $9.60 largely due to higher CPI expectations and an extended growth pipeline, and the Hold rating is retained.

Target price is $10.04 Current Price is $11.94 Difference: minus $1.9 (current price is over target).
If APA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.29, suggesting downside of -14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AWC as Neutral (3) -

Alumina's AWAC partner Alcoa will cut production at its San Ciprian refinery to 50-60% from 80% capacity to counter loss from elevated gas prices. At current spot alumina prices, Macquarie estimates 48% of global capacity is loss-making.

This suggests more cuts are possible but the broker retains a Neutral rating and $1.50 target on the back of a forecast 8-13% cash flow yield over 2022-24.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.76, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AZJ as Add (1) -

Morgans updates its forecast inflation and interest rate assumptions for stocks within its coverage of the Infrastructure sector.

Aurizon Holdings is a beneficiary of higher interest and inflation rates and the broker raises its target to $4.20 from $3.91, while the Add rating is retained, on a strong yield and valuation support.

The analyst notes dividends have been a key driver of the share price over time, and they will increase when the payout returns to the long-term level of 100%.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.10 Difference: $0.1
If AZJ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.76, suggesting downside of -8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BBT as Buy (1) -

BlueBet Holdings' June quarter was broadly in-line with Ord Minnett's expectations. Total turnover was a miss versus the broker's forecast, given the cancellation of several race meetings on Australia's east coast due to inclement weather. The target falls to $1.20 from $1.40.

The broker notes Iowa is expected to come online in the coming weeks and management announced an agreement to launch B2C operations in Indiana in late FY23. The latter is thought to represent a significant potential revenue opportunity. Buy.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.54 Difference: $0.66
If BBT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 122% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BGL as Outperform (1) -

Bellevue Gold’s development continues to track to plan, Macquarie notes following a site visit. Importantly, the new mining contractor has "hit the ground running", seeing an immediate improvement in development metres with the miner flagging further near-term productivity gains.

Bellevue continues to deliver and, according to the June quarter report, remains comfortably funded to production, the broker notes.

Outperform and $1.20 target retained.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.82 Difference: $0.38
If BGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Buy (1) -

Citi forecasts 4Q 2022 iron ore prices will improve to US$125/t, as steel production rates in China are sustained via policy easing and the iron ore supply side remains constrained. More support is also expected for the Chinese property sector in 2023.

The broker also notes a relatively weak Australian dollar is alleviating cost pressures for the major miners. The Buy rating and $44.50 target are retained for BHP Group.

Target price is $44.50 Current Price is $39.10 Difference: $5.4
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.36, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley reminds investors the CommBank share price has generally tracked housing values over the past decade.

Moreover, the current decline in housing values is "comparable with the onset of the GFC.... and the sharp downswing of the early 1980's". House prices fell at their fastest pace in nearly 40 years in July.

The Underweight rating and $79 target are unchanged. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $79.00 Current Price is $101.08 Difference: minus $22.08 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $88.05, suggesting downside of -13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DBI as Add (1) -

Morgans updates its forecast inflation and interest rate assumptions for stocks within its coverage of the Infrastructure sector.

For Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure, the broker's target price remains at $2.30. The Add rating is retained 

The analyst highlights an attractive dividend yield and potentially strong earnings growth over coming years and retains an Add rating. The strong earnings growth assumes a successful conclusion to customer negotiations concerning the Terminal Infrastructure Charge.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.07 Difference: $0.23
If DBI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.52, suggesting upside of 20.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DRR as Outperform (1) -

Deterra Royalties has reported MAC royalty receipts and capacity payments above Macquarie's expectations. South Flank has ramped up impressively and is now at 83% of capacity.

Macquarie is forecasting a final dividend up 89% on the interim.

Outperform and $5.00 target retained.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.45 Difference: $0.55
If DRR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.93, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FMG as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

UBS explains Fortescue Metals reported record iron ore shipments of 48.5Mt for the June quarter which came in line with the analyst's estimates.

The company guided for FY23 shipments between 187-193Mt but UBS highlights unit costs and capital expenditure have increased and the broker is waiting for updates on the costs and timelines for FFI and Iron Bridge.

With risks to costs and a cautious iron ore price outlook, UBS considers the risk/reward at this point as too high.

UBS downgrades to a Sell rating from Neutral and the price target is lowered to $15.80 from $16.00.

Target price is $15.80 Current Price is $18.21 Difference: minus $2.41 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.83, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GOR as Buy (1) -

UBS visited the Guyere site and remained positive about the prospects for the operation.

Gold Road Resources also reported the June quarter production results of 86koz which was noted as strong by UBS.

The company experienced a rise in total cash costs, up 10% on the quarter and 42% on the year from higher fuel, labour, and consumable inputs which are consistent with the industry.

Gold Road Resources aims to increase production rates for Gruyere above 350kozpa and continue exploration for another discovery operation.

UBS retains its Buy rating for Gold Road Resources and the price target is $1.85.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: $0.47
If GOR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.72, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IGO as Outperform (1) -

Following a site visit, Macquarie declares the completion of Western Areas acquisition has transformed IGO into a critical minerals major producer, boasting tier one lithium assets and world class joint partners.

The study into downstream nickel processing could help the company to capture further value along the battery material value, Macquarie suggests. Updates on the Cosmos project and production ramp up at Kwinana present key catalysts.

Outperform and $17 target retained.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $11.05 Difference: $5.95
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.65, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IGO as Buy (1) -

Post a visit to the Greenbushes mine, 25% owned by IGO and TLEA's Kwinana facility (49% owned), UBS confirmed that IGO is the preferred EV raw material play in the sector.

A Buy rating is maintained and a $13.00 price target.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $11.05 Difference: $1.95
If IGO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.65, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates KPG as Hold (3) -

Following FY22 results for Kelly Partners showing profit (NPATA) rising by 23.1% on the previous corresponding period, Morgans leaves its forecasts unchanged, though the target rises to $4.70 from $4.30 on a valuation roll forward. The Hold rating is unchanged.

The analyst highlights the company is on track to hit FY24 targets. Management also set out its objectives over the next five years which includes becoming a top-ten accounting firm in Australia.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.99 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If KPG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NST as Outperform (1) -

A site tour of Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines has highlighted for Macquarie the growth upside, synergies and efficiencies unlocked by Northern Star Resources since the acquisition and consolidation.

It is clear that KCGM, particularly under 100% ownership, is a globally significant operation of considerable scale, the broker comments, and the miner has outlined three expansion options for the Super Pit.

Outperform and $10 target retained.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $7.87 Difference: $2.13
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.20, suggesting upside of 26.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ORG as Hold (3) -

Origin Energy's 4Q report showed another strong APLNG performance, according to Morgans, with production and sales volumes in-line with expectations. Commodity revenue for the 2H was a 7% beat with average prices more than doubling in Australian dollar terms.

The broker notes the Energy markets business continues to struggle, with the outlook diminished by limited output from Eraring and a key gas contract due to be repriced in FY24.

The Hold rating is retained, while the target rises to $5.39 from $5.21.

Target price is $5.39 Current Price is $6.05 Difference: minus $0.66 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.40, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORG as Buy (1) -

UBS considers the Origin Energy June quarter update in a positive light with the company able to secure half of its coal requirements for FY23 thus reducing the earnings risk to the Energy Markets division.

Origin Energy is expected to benefit from strong cash flow from APLNG and the gas portfolio which the broker forecasts as offsetting any challenges from the volatility in electricity wholesale prices.

UBS adjusts earnings and dividend forecasts for lower hedging costs, stronger gas and electricity sales from net new customers and better than expected cash distributions from APLNG.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price remains at $7.90.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $6.05 Difference: $1.85
If ORG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.40, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie recently attended a site visit to Pilbara Minerals’ Pilgangoora lithium-tantalum project in the Pilbara region, and suggests recovery improvement from both Pilgan and Ngungaju presents upside risk to the miner’s concentrate production.

Pilbara Minerals is generating strong cash flows and Macquarie expects spodumene production to rise by over 40% in FY23.

Outperform. No change to forecasts but target falls to $4.00 from $4.20 on an enterprise and net present value blended model.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: $1.2
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting upside of 22.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QAL as Outperform (1) -

Qualitas has secured a $700m mandate from the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, potentially rising to $1.7bn. ADIA has an option to acquire 9.99% of Qualitas at $2.50ps subject to the $1.7bn mandate.

The new fund backed by ADIA is an additional example of Qualitas executing on its strategic objectives of growing funds under management by utilising co-investment from the recent IPO, Macquarie notes.

The deal offers significant earnings upside, the broker suggests, and strategically highlights the opportunities in the private credit real estate sector.

Outperform and $2.53 target retained.

Target price is $2.53 Current Price is $2.02 Difference: $0.51
If QAL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Buy (1) -

Citi forecasts 4Q 2022 iron ore prices will improve to US$125/t, as steel production rates in China are sustained via policy easing and the iron ore supply side remains constrained. More support is also expected for the Chinese property sector in 2023.

The broker also notes a relatively weak Australian dollar is alleviating cost pressures for the major miners. The Buy rating and $120 target are retained for Rio Tinto.

Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $98.92 Difference: $21.08
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $110.36, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SDR as Buy (1) -

UBS observes SiteMinder reported a solid earnings update for the June quarter with revenues coming in marginally above the broker's forecasts. 

Annual recurring revenue grew 25% compared to last year and is now above pre-covid levels.

Subscription revenues also rose despite weakness in some of the Asian countries.

The Buy rating and $7.20 target price are maintained as the analyst awaits more details from the FY22 results.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $4.20 Difference: $3
If SDR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.94, suggesting upside of 41.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SGP as Outperform (1) -

Stockland provided FY22 earnings guidance update which came in at the higher end of the previous guidance.

Credit Suisse considers this to be positive given the difficult operating conditions from wet weather and supply chain issues.

The broker also noted the completion of the Retirement Living sale and the taxable profits from the divestment will offset carry forward losses, making Stockland a tax paying entity in FY23.

The broker adjusts the funds from operations (FFO) forecasts by 1.2% for FY22 and -2.9% for FY23. Credit Suisse's FFO forecast of 35.6c is at the top end of guidance.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $4.20 from $4.39.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.89 Difference: $0.31
If SGP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.55, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SWP as Downgrade to Hold from Speculative Buy (3) -

Swoop Holdings' 4Q results and closing FY22 cash position were in-line with Morgans' expectations, while management guided to beat the upper end of FY22 earnings (EBITDA) guidance.

While the broker now incorporates the Moose Mobile acquisition into FY23 earnings forecasts, the previous 'premium for likely acquisitions' is now removed and the target falls to $0.68 from $1.44. The rating also falls to Hold from Speculative Buy.

Target price is $0.68 Current Price is $0.63 Difference: $0.05
If SWP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SZL as Buy (1) -

Sezzle had largely pre-announced 2Q figures and they were secondary to an outlined pathway to profitability by management, in Ord Minnett 's view.

Steps already undertaken by Sezzle are expected to improve earnings (EBTDA) annually by $40m, according to the analyst.

However, the main driver of the broker's increased target price to $1.10, up from $0.60, is management's strategy to reduce transaction costs by driving greater uptake in ACH-linked payments (which have extremely low costs).

An ACH payment is a type of electronic bank-to-bank payment in the US that circumvents the card networks of Visa etc.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.91 Difference: $0.19
If SZL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TCL as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans updates its forecast inflation and interest rate assumptions for stocks within its coverage of the Infrastructure sector.

The broker lowers its rating for Transurban Group to Hold from Add on recent share price strength.

The target falls to $13.90 from $14.42 as the (negative) increase in forward cost of new debt outweighs the (positive) increase in CPI outlook, explains the analyst, given revenues don’t adjust as much as the cost of debt.

Morgans expects rapid growth in DPS over coming years from a rebound in traffic.

Target price is $13.90 Current Price is $14.71 Difference: minus $0.81 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.45, suggesting downside of -1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates UMG as Outperform (1) -

United Malt offered a disappointing update, downgrading FY22 guidance by -20% and reduced the inital FY23 guidance to -17% below consensus estimates, according to Credit Suisse.

The company attributed the downgrades to higher barley costs and the lack of previously anticipated cuts in freight and other costs.

Credit Suisse points out the elevated debt position of United Malt with estimated net debt at 5.1x EBITDA compared to the 2.0-2.5x EBITDA target.

The broker's bull case is the FY19 of $175m in EBITDA is possible with improving costs in FY24.

Credit Suisse retains the Outperform rating and the target price increases to $4.30 from $4.75, but notes there is potential earnings dilution risk from an equity raising to reduce debt.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.04 Difference: $1.26
If UMG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting upside of 49.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates UMG as Outperform (1) -

United Malt Group has downgraded FY22 and FY23 earnings guidance to -18% and -16% below Macquarie's prior forecast, which was previoulsy at the low end of guidance.

Demand remains very resilient in the marketplace, the broker notes, and United Malt is operating at high utilisation, but processing continues to be adversely impacted by previously disclosed external factors.

These include the Canadian drought impact, supply chain impact on processing sales, and processing input costs, which are resulting in the further deterioration of gross margins in North America.

Outperform retained on a new target of $3.85, down from $4.45.

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $3.04 Difference: $0.81
If UMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting upside of 49.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates UMG as Hold (3) -

Morgans raises the spectre of a structural change to United Malt's business, given its more normalised earnings now appear to be well below proforma pre-covid levels. This view follows management's downgrade to FY22 earnings (EBITDA) guidance of -16-26%.

The Processing business continues to be impacted by the drought-affected North American barley crop, increased supply chain costs and higher energy costs, explains the analyst.

The company also provided FY23 earnings guidance well short of both the broker's and the consensus expectations.

Morgans' target price falls to $3.46 from $4.20. The Hold rating is maintained, due to ongoing execution risks and a forecast delay until the 2H of FY23 for a material improvement in earnings.

Target price is $3.46 Current Price is $3.04 Difference: $0.42
If UMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting upside of 49.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates UMG as Buy (1) -

United Malt guided for another downgrade noted UBS with rising production costs from lower quality Canadian barley, supply chain disruptions and higher energy costs all inputs into the lower than expected FY22 and 1Q23 company guidance.

The headwinds and pass through of costs should abate by 2Q23, expects United Malt and the elevated debt levels are forecast to be reduced by September 2023.

Buy rating and $4.65 target price retained but will be reviewed at the upcoming Investor Day.

Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $3.04 Difference: $1.61
If UMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting upside of 49.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources