Australian Broker Call

Credit Suisse rates AWC as Outperform (1) -

Alcoa reported underlying operating earnings (EBITDA) of US$388m, reflecting softer pricing and market conditions. Net distributions for Alumina Ltd were US$81.6m plus an additional US$36.9m post September 30.

While the near-term backdrop is soft, Credit Suisse assesses Alumina Ltd is holding up well, supported by a strong operating performance.

The broker finds it hard to envisage an immediate upside catalyst although believes the stock is well protected on the downside. Outperform rating and $2.70 target maintained.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.28 Difference: $0.42
If AWC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.27, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AWC as Underperform (5) -

Alumina Ltd's production numbers were largely in line with Macquarie's expectations but realised prices surprised to the upside. AWAC JV partner Alcoa has announced a review into up to 4mtpa of alumina production and 1.5mtpa of aluminium production.

The broker sees Alumina Ltd's Portland operation as a possible target. Earnings risk is to the downside, the broker warns, given current spot prices suggest a cut of -4-10%. Underperform and $1.50 target retained.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $2.28 Difference: minus $0.78 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.27, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AWC as Overweight (1) -

Production and costs in the September quarter were better than Morgan Stanley expected while distributions were in line. Alcoa expects a wider surplus in alumina.

Over the next 12-18 months Alcoa will pursue non-core asset sales and will review 1.5mt of aluminium capacity and 4mt of alumina capacity. This could allow the divestment or permanent closure of Point Comfort which is currently curtailed, the broker notes.

Overweight rating, Attractive industry view and $2.80 target maintained.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.28 Difference: $0.52
If AWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.27, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AWC as Lighten (4) -

Alcoa reported September quarter production of bauxite and alumina, with operating earnings (EBITDA) of US$357m, 5% ahead of Ord Minnett's estimates. Alcoa is reviewing the portfolio over five years, which the broker suspects could result in the closure or sale of the San Ciprian refinery and Portland smelter.

Ord Minnett also expects the alumina market will take some time to recover and believes there is better value elsewhere in the sector. Lighten rating and $2.30 target maintained.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.28 Difference: $0.02
If AWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.27, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AWC as Sell (5) -

Alcoa reported an adjusted loss for the September quarter of -US$0.44 per share. The company has announced a multi-year portfolio review to improve its cost performance with the intention of pursuing non-core asset sales.

There is 4mtpa of alumina capacity under review, which UBS suspects is concentrated in Brazil and Spain. AWAC produced 3.2mt of alumina and 11.5mt of bauxite in the September quarter. Realised alumina pricing for the quarter was US$311/t down -16% quarter on quarter.

UBS notes post September 30, Alumina Ltd has received a further US$36.9m after contributions. Sell rating and $2.10 target maintained.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.28 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.27, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AZJ as Underperform (5) -

Aurizon's Sep Q rail volumes show the company has lost market share in both NSW and Queensland, although the broker notes this is down to major customer BHP Group ((BHP)) moving -10% less coal.

The volume impact from the east coast drought appears to have run its course, the broker suggests, and the reopening of the Mt Isa line suggests a recovery.

Underperform nevertheless retained on a stretched valuation. Target unchanged at $5.33.

Target price is $5.33 Current Price is $5.78 Difference: minus $0.45 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.69, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

September quarter production was mostly in line with expectations. Citi adjusts forecasts for net debt, given the company has advised of an expected increase of $3.8bn in FY20 as a result of the impacts of IFRS16.

The broker forecasts net debt of $10.7bn at the end of FY20. Neutral rating and $39 target maintained.

Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $34.82 Difference: $4.18
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.30, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

September quarter numbers were soft but in line with expectations. Jansen stage 1 will be presented for a final investment decision by February 2021 and US$345m of expenditure has been approved.

Credit Suisse assumes this is a pulling forward of expenditure to provide a more sound basis on which to make a decision rather than an increase in the overall budget.

The broker makes no changes to its Neutral rating or $37 target, but notes the company has plenty of exposure to a negative 2020 steel outlook for China.

Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $34.82 Difference: $2.18
If BHP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.30, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

BHP's Sep Q production report was solid, the broker suggests, with production in line for iron ore and copper and beating expectations in petroleum and met coal. The company has not changed FY20 production and cost guidance and Macquarie has not changed its forecasts.

The broker points out, as ever, that were current spot prices to be used in its model, its free cash flow yield forecast would be some 10% higher. Slightly higher cost assumptions lead to a target price cut to $39 from $40. Outperform retained.

Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $34.82 Difference: $4.18
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.30, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Equal-weight (3) -

First quarter production was soft, missing Morgan Stanley's estimates on key commodities except petroleum. Sales volumes marginally lagged production, notably in copper.

FY20 guidance is unchanged while projects appear to be on track and on budget. The broker envisages minimal scope for any material adjustments to earnings.

Equal-weight maintained. Industry view: In-Line. Target is GBP18.10.

Current Price is $34.82. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $37.30, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BHP as Hold (3) -

Morgans notes FY20 has started slowly with production lower in the first quarter, although this had largely been flagged. Planned maintenance resulted in lower volumes in iron ore and coal.

The company has announced it will spend US$345m on Jansen ahead of an FID in February 2021. Morgans suggests weakening iron ore demand could mean short-term volatility, amid falling Chinese steel prices.

Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $35.82 from $36.66.

Target price is $35.82 Current Price is $34.82 Difference: $1
If BHP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.30, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Hold (3) -

September quarter production was largely in line with Ord Minnett's expectations. The Jansen potash project is moving forward, with another US$345m approved to support planning towards a February 2021 final investment decision.

Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating and $37 target.

Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $34.82 Difference: $2.18
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.30, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

The September quarter was sequentially softer with production slightly ahead of UBS estimates for iron ore but behind on coal. Petroleum was also slightly ahead while copper was below estimates.

The broker notes BHP Group is placing a strong emphasis on the future of its petroleum division and a likely catalyst could be the briefing scheduled for November 11. Neutral rating and $36 target maintained.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $34.82 Difference: $1.18
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.30, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BOQ as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Citi notes an unexpected rise in bad debts drove a weaker result for Bank of Queensland, attributed to the small number of commercial exposures. While management remains cautious heading into FY20, Citi suspects falling borrowing costs are likely to keep bad debts in check for now.

The broker suspects earnings, the capital position and, possibly, the dividend are all set to deteriorate again. Rating is downgraded to Sell from Neutral and the target lowered to $8.50 from $9.50. FY20-21 estimates are downgraded by -10%.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $9.16 Difference: minus $0.66 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.30, suggesting downside of -9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BOQ as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse reduces estimates for FY20 cash earnings by -8% following the FY19 result. The update has shown up the challenges for smaller banks amid a mounting regulatory cost burden and a lack of scale to spread the pain.

The broker suggests Bank of Queensland has hard decisions to make in terms of what it should be in the future and this is likely to manifest in a restructure, a re-basing of earnings and pressure on capital and dividends.

Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $9.15 from $9.70.

Target price is $9.15 Current Price is $9.16 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.30, suggesting downside of -9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BOQ as Underperform (5) -

Bank of Queensland posted its third year of declining profits and warned of more to come. The broker sees the dividend cut as necessary and warns of further downside. Earnings forecasts cut by -7-8% to reflect higher expenses and dilution for the ongoing DRP.

The bank looks cheap on a headline valuation basis, the broker notes, but on a normalised basis is trading at a 41% premium to the majors. Underperform retained, target falls to $8.00 from $8.50.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $9.16 Difference: minus $1.16 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.30, suggesting downside of -9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BOQ as Underweight (5) -

FY19 results were weaker than Morgan Stanley expected. FY20 guidance is for earnings to fall year-on-year, given the reinvestment required.

The broker assesses the cut to the dividend of -9% in the second half still underscores a pay-out ratio that is too high at 82%.

Morgan Stanley envisages ongoing challenges for the retail bank, forecasting earnings to fall -12% in FY20.

Underweight rating. Industry view is In-Line. Price target is reduced to $8.00 from $8.40.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $9.16 Difference: minus $1.16 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.30, suggesting downside of -9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BOQ as Reduce (5) -

FY19 cash earnings of $320m were -3% below forecasts. While Morgans expected the next cut to the dividend would happen in the first half of FY20 this has now eventuated, with a final dividend of $0.31 fully franked, compared with an interim dividend of $0.34.

The result disappointed the broker and the outlook is considered challenging for the next two years. Return on tangible equity has now declined to 10.2%, and the broker suggests the business is not creating shareholder value. Reduce rating and $8 target maintained.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $9.16 Difference: minus $1.16 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.30, suggesting downside of -9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BOQ as Lighten (4) -

FY19 cash net profit of $320m was below Ord Minnett's forecasts largely because of higher bad debts and soft non-interest income. The broker notes some steps have been taken towards dealing with risk settings and capital strength but believes there is a long way to go.

The broker is becoming more convinced that the acquisitions of BOQ Specialist and Virgin Money Australia have introduced complexity and provide a distraction from the core retail bank, of which the owner-manager branch network decline is symptomatic.

Ord Minnett maintains a Lighten rating and lowers the target to $8.20 from $8.50.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $9.16 Difference: minus $0.96 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.30, suggesting downside of -9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BOQ as Sell (5) -

UBS found few positives in the FY19 results. Revenue was boosted by trading income while net interest margins were down to 1.92%. Credit growth was 1.6%.

Asset quality deteriorated, with several large commercial exposures including agriculture. The new strategy will be outlined by the incoming CEO, George Frazis, in a market update in February.

UBS expects the focus to be on niche areas where the bank has an advantage, such as expansion of Virgin Money Australia digital bank and BOQ Finance.

Sell rating and $8.25 target maintained.

Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $9.16 Difference: minus $0.91 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.30, suggesting downside of -9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CLW as Buy (1) -

Strong acquisition activity is likely to drive positive earnings revisions, in Citi's view. The company has acquired more than $1bn in assets over the last 12 months.

Moreover, the acquisition environment remains favourable amid declining funding costs and positive spreads versus property yields. Citi envisages earnings skewed to the upside and maintains a Buy rating and $6.52 target.

Target price is $6.52 Current Price is $5.73 Difference: $0.79
If CLW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.41, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CTX as Buy (1) -

The US$10.53/bbl refiner margin realised in the September quarter is broadly in line with Citi's expectations. Looking forward, the broker expects crude premiums should ease, although sharply higher freight rates may offset any benefit.

US sanctions on Chinese shipping company COSCO have increased freight costs globally for transporting crude. Sinopec is reportedly cutting refinery runs in China, which the broker suspects may boost regional crack spreads on fewer exports.

Hence a forecast of US$10.10/bbl is retained for the Caltex refining margin in the second half. Buy rating maintained. Target rises to $30.50 from $30.48.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $26.95 Difference: $3.55
If CTX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.41, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CTX as Equal-weight (3) -

The refiner margin in the September quarter was higher than Morgan Stanley assumed, at US$10.50/bbl. Since the end of the quarter there have been reports of significant increases in freight costs and the broker highlights the cost of shipping a barrel of crude from West Africa to China has surged.

Morgan Stanley understands Caltex sources around one third of its crude from West Africa. The broker expects Caltex will adjust its sourcing requirements if freight rates stay high.

Equal-weight maintained. Target is $24. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $26.95 Difference: minus $2.95 (current price is over target).
If CTX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.41, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CTX as Neutral (3) -

The September quarter refining margin of $10.53/bbl was ahead of expectations. This was driven by improving diesel, gasoline and jet fuel crack spreads.

2019 volume guidance of around 5.5bn litres was reiterated. Neutral rating and $25.30 target maintained.

Target price is $25.30 Current Price is $26.95 Difference: minus $1.65 (current price is over target).
If CTX meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.41, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CWN as Neutral (3) -

The company has reached an agreement with the Australian Taxation Office to settle a tax assessment. Previously, Credit Suisse had factored in a -$400m payment to the ATO in valuation and now strips out this cost.

This results in an increased target of $11.90, from $11.30. Neutral maintained.

Target price is $11.90 Current Price is $12.09 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If CWN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.85, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HRL as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

The company has issued a positive trading update at the AGM, providing earnings guidance for the first half that was stronger than Morgans expected. The broker highlights earnings are significantly skewed to the second half, in line with the production profile of New Zealand's dairy and honey seasons.

The broker increases FY20 forecasts for underlying operating earnings (EBITDA) by 8.2%. FY21 and FY22 forecasts have risen 6.0% and 5.9% respectively. Rating is upgraded to Add from Hold and the target raised to $0.14 from $0.12.

Target price is $0.14 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.02
If HRL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IAG as Neutral (3) -

The sale of the Indian joint venture provides enough capital to return to shareholders and Citi now factors in a $700m buyback in 2020.

Although buying back shares at the current price would only be modestly accretive, the broker points out a lack of franking credits indicates this may still be the most likely route to return capital.

Neutral maintained. Target rises to $8.60 from $8.50.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $8.05 Difference: $0.55
If IAG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.61, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IAG as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

The company will sell its 26% interest in the joint venture with State Bank of India. Total consideration is over $640m with an expected increase in Insurance Australia Group's regulatory capital position of over $400m once the transaction completes.

Credit Suisse increases FY20 estimates for reported profit by 34% and also increases the expected FY20 buyback to $750m from $300m. Target increases to $8.00 from $7.50. The broker's rating is now upgraded back to Neutral from Underperform.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $8.05 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.61, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Equal-weight (3) -

The company has sold its stake in the joint venture with State Bank of India. The gain on sale after-tax is expected to be over $300m.

Morgan Stanley notes the company remains committed to returning surplus capital and, given the depleted franking credits, the most likely form of any capital initiative is an on-market buyback.

Equal-weight. Target is $8.00. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $8.05 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.61, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IAG as Hold (3) -

Insurance Australia will sell its 26% interest in the State Bank of India joint venture. The impact is likely to involve a boost to net profit of more than $300m and the regulatory capital position of more than $400m, Ord Minnett assesses.

The broker does not assume any capital management in forecasts although considers this highly likely from the second half of FY20 onwards. The stock appears fully valued and the broker maintains a Hold rating. Target is $7.10.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $8.05 Difference: minus $0.95 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.61, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IAG as Neutral (3) -

Insurance Australia Group has sold its 26% stake in SBI General Insurance, the JV with State Bank of India, for over $640m.

UBS envisages scope for capital management in 2020, however, at the current PE ratio of 20x assesses net accretion from the sale and a subsequent buyback is relatively neutral.

Neutral rating and $7.60 target maintained.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $8.05 Difference: minus $0.45 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.61, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IFL as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

As the ANZ P&I deal now has a strong likelihood of proceeding, having been approved by the custodians, Citi lifts estimates for earnings per share in FY20 and FY21 by 29% and 46% respectively.

The company still faces major hurdles, such as the need to restructure its advice business, but the broker suggests the added scale and associated cost synergies from the acquisition should provide flexibility.

In view of the improved earnings outlook, the rating is upgraded to Neutral/High Risk from Sell/High Risk. Target is raised to $7.30 from $4.40.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $7.29 Difference: $0.01
If IFL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.82, suggesting downside of -6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IFL as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

The OnePath Custodians have approved the acquisition by IOOF Holdings of the ANZ Wealth Pension & Investments. A purchase price of $825m has been agreed, $125m below the original price.

Credit Suisse believes it likely the business will transfer to IOOF in the second half of FY20 and incorporates the acquisition in estimates from January 1 2020.

APRA has also advised it will not appeal the Federal Court decision to dismiss its action against IOOF entities, directors and executives.

Target is raised to $8.45 from $5.05 and the rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral, as the company has made significant progress on two fronts.

Target price is $8.45 Current Price is $7.29 Difference: $1.16
If IFL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.82, suggesting downside of -6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IFL as Outperform (1) -

IOOF has jumped another hurdle on its way to bedding down its ANZ Wealth acquisition, receiving "no objection" notices from OnePath Custodians and ANZ Bank and reducing its purchase price to $825m from $950m. The last hurdle is APRA approval, expected later this year.

The broker retains Outperform, expecting consensus forecast upgrades as the business is incorporated into valuation. Target rises to $7.60 from $7.00.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $7.29 Difference: $0.31
If IFL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.82, suggesting downside of -6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IFL as Reinstate coverage with Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett suggests IOOF still faces pressure from industry-wide changes stemming from the 2018 Royal Commission. The perceived risks come via a more aggressive regulator, APRA, and further compensation for clients.

The wealth manager has cleared another hurdle to its acquisition of the ANZ wealth management business with the trustees raising no objections, and this removes some uncertainty the broker acknowledges.

Ord Minnett reinstates coverage with a Lighten rating and $6 target.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $7.29 Difference: minus $1.29 (current price is over target).
If IFL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.82, suggesting downside of -6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IFL as Neutral (3) -

The company's acquisition of ANZ P&I has cleared a key hurdle with the OnePath Custodians giving it the nod. The remaining purchase price has been reduced to $825m from $950m, consistent with UBS expectations.

The broker adjusts the earnings base to include the acquisition, lifting the forecast for earnings per share by 25-30%. Target is raised to $6.60 from $5.70. Neutral maintained as the shares appear to be already pricing in the outcome.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $7.29 Difference: minus $0.69 (current price is over target).
If IFL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.82, suggesting downside of -6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ING as Neutral (3) -

Inghams has warned FY20 earnings will be lower than FY19 as feed costs remain elevated (drought). Earnings will be lower in the first half than the last half of FY19 and as for the second half, pray for rain.

Uncertainty thus remains, and the broker looks ahead to the company's strategy day next week. Neutral retained, target falls to $3.10 from $3.45.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.91 Difference: $0.19
If ING meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.32, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ING as Sell (5) -

The company has reiterated guidance for softer earnings in FY20 and an improvement in FY21. The main issue is still feed costs.

UBS continues to envisage downside risk to near-term earnings, calculating the company faces a $47m feed cost headwind in FY20.

The next catalyst, the broker notes, is the upcoming strategy briefing on October 22. Sell rating and $3.10 target maintained.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.91 Difference: $0.19
If ING meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.32, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NST as Underperform (5) -

September quarter production was sequentially softer, down -17% on an exceptionally strong June quarter, Credit Suisse observes.

The broker notes Pogo accounted for the production shortfall and both Kalgoorlie and Pogo accounted for a cost blow-out.

Underperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $9.60 from $10.00.

Target price is $9.60 Current Price is $10.13 Difference: minus $0.53 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.82, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NST as Outperform (1) -

Northern Star's Sep Q production report was mixed, with strength at Jundee offsetting weakness at Kalgoorlie, while Pogo grades were particularly disappointing, albeit expected to improve.

Aside from grade improvement, the broker continues to see outstanding potential for new discoveries at Pogo along with mine life extensions and the possibility of further expansion beyond the current production upgrade target. Outperform retained, target falls to $15 from $16.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $10.13 Difference: $4.87
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.82, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NST as Underweight (5) -

Weaker production at Kalgoorlie and issues with Pogo were only partially offset by better grades at Jundee in the September quarter, Morgan Stanley asserts. Group gold production was -11% below estimates.

The broker suspects the ramp up of Pogo in FY20 may again be disappointing. Moreover, the switch of mining methods in a foreign operation could be more complex than previously anticipated and take longer than expected.

This creates a risk to guidance and market forecasts, in the broker's opinion. Underweight rating. Industry view is Attractive. Target is $9.60.

Target price is $9.60 Current Price is $10.13 Difference: minus $0.53 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.82, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NST as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett reduces FY20 earnings forecasts by -20% in the wake of the September quarter production report. The broker notes the market is concerned about unit costs at Pogo and will monitor progress closely.

The broker maintains a Hold rating and reduces the target to $11.80 from $12.70.

In a sector where growth is hard to come by, Ord Minnett suggests the company could be well on the way to over 1m ounces per annum by FY22, with a boost from Pogo, Bronzewing and, potentially, the Tanami operations.

Target price is $11.80 Current Price is $10.13 Difference: $1.67
If NST meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.82, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NST as Neutral (3) -

September quarter production was -10% below UBS estimates with costs 12% higher. The broker suggests, being the fourth quarter of weaker-than-expected production, market confidence has been dented and this is potentially affecting the company's premium valuation.

At its core, the past 12 months performance stems from the turnaround at Pogo taking longer than guided and UBS maintains a Neutral rating, reducing the target to $11.20 from $12.60.

Target price is $11.20 Current Price is $10.13 Difference: $1.07
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.82, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates S32 as Buy (1) -

The company has maintained FY20 production guidance for all operations. Citi notes the company continues to review the options for manganese alloy smelters and Temco seems most at risk, given its ageing technology.

Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $3.20 from $3.40. Metallurgical coal prices have moved off the lows and Citi expects global alumina curtailments at current prices.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.46 Difference: $0.74
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.02, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

There were no changes or surprises for Credit Suisse in the September quarter numbers. FY20 guidance is unchanged.

The manganese smelter reviews continue to be worked through but the broker considers the attractiveness of the assets remains low. Outperform rating and $3.20 target maintained.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.46 Difference: $0.74
If S32 meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.02, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Underperform (5) -

South32's Sep Q production numbers were solid and the broker now forecasts guidance beats at Illawarra and Cannington. But the risk of a higher tax rate and commodity price headwinds, particularly in alumina and manganese, will likely suppress cash generation, the broker warns.

Were the broker to use current spot prices in its model, earnings forecasts would fall by -10%. Underperform retained, target falls to $2.40 from $2.50.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.46 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.02, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

The September quarter performance pleased Morgan Stanley in terms of the operations. Sales were weaker than forecast, considered likely to be a timing issue.

Despite the build up in finished goods, the company has flagged a release of working capital which suggests improved capital efficiency.

The broker maintains an Overweight rating and $3.50 target. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.46 Difference: $1.04
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.02, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates S32 as Add (1) -

Morgans found the operating performance solid in the September quarter. The broker notes the company's core commodity exposures have come under pressure in 2019 from weaker demand conditions and ample supply. This has left earnings at a low base.

Therefore there is leverage from any relief rally in core market exposures, amid further outperformance in assets such as Cannington and Illawarra. Divestment of South Africa Energy Coal could also be a positive catalyst.

Add rating maintained. Target is reduced to $3.30 from $3.33.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.46 Difference: $0.84
If S32 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.02, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates S32 as Hold (3) -

September quarter production was ahead of estimates because of a strong performance from Illawarra and Cannington. Cash at the end of the quarter of US$527m was bolstered by a working capital release and a US$98m insurance payment from South Africa Energy Coal.

Ord Minnett considers the company in good financial shape, although expects downward pressure on key commodities such as aluminium and alumina to continue. Hold rating and $2.75 target maintained.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.46 Difference: $0.29
If S32 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.02, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates S32 as Neutral (3) -

The company provided a robust production outcome in the September quarter, with the exception of manganese alloy which underperformed UBS forecast by -24% and was down -30% quarter on quarter.

One of the four furnaces at the Australian manganese business was taken off-line as a result of deteriorating market dynamics.

The company is evaluating its exposure to manganese alloy with an update expected in the March quarter. UBS maintains a Neutral rating and $2.80 target.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.46 Difference: $0.34
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.02, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SDF as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

The company has reaffirmed FY20 guidance for underlying earnings (EBITA) of $215-225m. This implies 11-16.5% growth and Credit Suisse suspects, given the solid trading results in the first quarter, the top of the range is likely.

The broker upgrades estimates by 3%. Given the recent pull back in the shares, Credit Suisse believes here is an opportunity to pick up the stock at a reasonable price and upgrades to Outperform from Neutral.

The main risk is a softening in the premium environment and regulatory changes. Target is raised to $4.00 from $3.85.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.68 Difference: $0.32
If SDF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.03, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SDF as Outperform (1) -

Steadfast posted solid Sep Q trading results and FY20 guidance has been reaffirmed, with the top end of the range more likely. Acceptance of the IBNA acquisition has reached 100% when the broker had assumed 80%.

Strong operating conditions and guidance commentary support the broker's Outperform rating. Target rises to $4.20 from $4.10.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.68 Difference: $0.52
If SDF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.03, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates STO as Neutral (3) -

Citi believes, based on flow test results and a review of analogous fields, guidance for a 50,000 bopd development at Dorado is quite conservative. The broker forecasts 80,000 bopd.

Over the long-term, Citi assesses the business offers investors an 8% five-year compound growth rate for operating earnings (EBITDA). Neutral rating maintained. Target rises to $8.15 from $7.76.

Target price is $8.15 Current Price is $7.78 Difference: $0.37
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.25, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates STO as No Rating (-1) -

September quarter production was in line with Credit Suisse forecasts, primarily driven by record high sales volumes. The PNG LNG plant has returned to near 8.3mtpa production rates.

Credit Suisse expects momentum to continue for the near term with positive catalysts such as Dorado and Barossa FID, M&A synergies and progress on PNG expansion. The broker is restricted on providing a rating or target at present.

Current Price is $7.78. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $8.25, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates STO as Equal-weight (3) -

September quarter production was higher than Morgan Stanley expected. The broker notes free cash will slow considerably after 2020 as the company completes the Darwin LNG acquisition.

The broker suspects, in the next 12 months, investors may be reluctant to re-rate growth projects higher, particularly given difficult LNG markets. Equal-weight maintained. Target is $8.00. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.78 Difference: $0.22
If STO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.25, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates STO as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett notes, following a record interim result, Santos has followed up with record quarterly production. Western Australia, in particular, is producing ahead of expectations.

Revenue was only marginally better than expected, owing to weak commodity pricing. Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating and increases the target to $7.85 from $7.75.

Target price is $7.85 Current Price is $7.78 Difference: $0.07
If STO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.25, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates STO as Neutral (3) -

Drilling activity in the Cooper Basin is starting to show signs of paying off, UBS observes, with gas production up 5% in the September quarter. The increase in drilling activity should mean Santos meets the top end of its target of 17-19mmboe by 2025.

The company has been able to arrest the production decline from Fairview through a number of development and well optimisation projects. Neutral rating and $8.10 target maintained.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $7.78 Difference: $0.32
If STO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.25, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WPL as Sell (5) -

The company has flagged upside to its 2C contingent resource following reinterpretation of geological data and Citi assesses any upgrade is adding to late-life cash flows at Scarborough, implying only small economic benefits.

However, the broker acknowledges, with Scarborough being marginal at current LNG contract prices every little bit helps.

Analysis suggests that farming down Scarborough and a fully underwritten dividend reinvestment plan from 2020 onwards are still needed for the balance sheet.

Sell rating maintained. Target is reduced to $29.95 from $30.27.

Target price is $29.95 Current Price is $31.83 Difference: minus $1.88 (current price is over target).
If WPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.84, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WPL as Outperform (1) -

Pluto outperformed in the September quarter which confirmed the second quarter disappointment was a one-off, Credit Suisse asserts. The broker acknowledges the outperformance may be only partially sustained.

First oil from Greater Enfield has also contributed to an increase in sales, offsetting softer oil prices and lower production of LNG from the North West Shelf.

The broker maintains an Outperform rating and reduces the target to $35.24 from $36.20.

Target price is $35.24 Current Price is $31.83 Difference: $3.41
If WPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.84, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WPL as Neutral (3) -

Woodside's Sep Q production, sales and revenue all exceeded the broker's forecast. The company will nevertheless need a bumper Dec Q in order to reach guidance and the broker targets the low end of the range.

Agreements for the North West Shelf and browse JVs remain key hurdles while challenges remain, the broker warns, given the potential for further NWS and Pluto delays. Neutral retained, target rises to $33.00 from 32.50.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $31.83 Difference: $1.17
If WPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.84, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WPL as Add (1) -

A strong September quarter performance from Pluto and Wheatstone was in evidence while North West Shelf fell short of forecasts.

Morgans notes Scarborough is also gradually making progress and the company is edging towards a gas processing agreement at Browse.

The broker remains confident, based on the fundamentals, despite the difficult global backdrop. Add rating maintained. Target is reduced to $34.81 from $34.97.

Target price is $34.81 Current Price is $31.83 Difference: $2.98
If WPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.84, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WPL as Hold (3) -

The company reported lower volumes from North West Shelf because of extended maintenance work. Start-up at Greater Enfield and a strong performance from Pluto and Wheatstone meant overall production was still ahead of Ord Minnett's estimates.

The broker notes, were it not for the disappointing output from North West Shelf, the quarter would have been the best in terms of production for five years. Hold rating maintained. Target is raised to $32.60 from $32.50.

Target price is $32.60 Current Price is $31.83 Difference: $0.77
If WPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.84, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WPL as Neutral (3) -

The timeline for a final investment decision on Browse has slipped, now scheduled for the first half of 2021 because of complexity in the FEED work.

A key hurdle, UBS assesses, is the gas agreement between the Browse JV and North West Shelf JV, which is yet to be finalised.

The timeline to accelerate Pluto production is on track. The company is targeting FID on Scarborough in the first half of 2020.

UBS expects production growth over the next 12 months of 100mmboe from the start up of the Greater Enfield and Vincent fields. Neutral rating and $31.60 target maintained.

Target price is $31.60 Current Price is $31.83 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If WPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.84, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources