Australian Broker Call

Credit Suisse rates ALL as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse assesses the feedback from the Australasian Gaming Expo for Aristocrat Leisure.

Key highlights from senior management included confidence in revenue growth from US casinos and mobile gaming.

The broker is looking for improved margins in 2H22 from the Digital division, despite flat revenues, with US revenues benefiting from increased player expenditure, the millennials entering the market, and the promotion of slot machines from casino operators.

An Outperform rating is retained with the broker highlighting the company is trading a 18x FY23 earnings, which is at the lower end of the historical valuation range.

The price target is unchanged at $40.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $35.09 Difference: $4.91
If ALL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.11, suggesting upside of 23.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AMP as No Rating (-1) -

Citi assesses the 1H22 AMP pre-investment results as a -9% below consensus forecasts, but investment earnings showing better than consensus forecasts from improved cost controls.

The Bank results were -30% lower than consensus with disappointing Net Interest Margin (NIM).

AMP announced a $350m share buyback in 2H22 and another $750m for FY23.

There is no rating for AMP with Citi research restricted.

Current Price is $1.16. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $1.03, suggesting downside of -8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AMP as No Rating (-1) -

Adjusting for the inclusion of Collimate, Credit Suisse views the 1H22 AMP underlying profit results as 9% above consensus estimates.

Higher earnings from AMP Capital/Collimate and lower costs in the Group Office were the main drivers for the beat, with AWM and the Bank coming in below consensus.

AMP announced a $1.1bn capital return or 29% of the market capitalisaton, commencing with a $350m buyback in 2H22 and $750m in capital returns from special dividends, buybacks etc forecast in FY23.

The broker's forecasts are adjusted for the $350m share buyback and improved underlying profits from Group Office cost reduction and AMP Capital by 76% and 22% for FY22 and FY23.

Credit Suisse is currently restricted on providing a rating or target.

Current Price is $1.16. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $1.03, suggesting downside of -8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AMP as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes AMP missed its earnings forecast by just -2%, with strong cost control and a better result from AMP Capital somewhat offsetting weaker results from Wealth and AMP Bank, seeing the company deliver first half earnings of $148m. 

The broker sees it as critical for AMP to re-invest to stay competitive, with AMP Capital to be mostly divested. Morgan Stanley notes no dividend was announced, but $1.1bn is expected to be distributed by capital return, special dividend, or on-market buybacks.

The Equal-Weigh rating and target price of $1.10 are retained. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $1.16 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.03, suggesting downside of -8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMP as Hold (3) -

Following 1H results, Ord Minnett leaves its Hold rating and $1.10 target price unchanged for AMP due to counterbalancing items. 

On the one hand, underlying net profit was a beat versus the broker's forecast, and management committed to return at least $1.1bn to shareholders over 2022 and 2023.

On the other hand, the AMP Bank result was considered very weak and the analyst envisages AMP Wealth Management will face 2H earnings pressure via costs and margins.

The return of capital to shareholders should provide a boost to sentiment, though Ord Minnett sees medium-term execution risks for the cost-reduction program.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $1.16 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.03, suggesting downside of -8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates APA as No Rating (-1) -

Santos ((STO)) has revived plans to construct the Hunter Gas pipeline project, first approved in 2009, with an extension granted in 2019, for requiring construction to commence by October 2024. The pipeline will run past Narrabri and AGL Energy’s ((AGL)) power stations.

APA Group's alternative proposal is the Western Slopes Pipeline, a more expensive 450km connection to the Moomba-Sydney pipeline.

Macquarie is currently on research restriction.

Current Price is $11.90. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $10.29, suggesting downside of -13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AQZ as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse highlights Alliance Aviation Services reported earnings some -3.4% below forecasts for FY22, after adjusting for the impairments from the E190 and other costs.

Accordingly, the broker has reduced earnings forecasts by -12% for FY23 and -3% for FY24, due to the slower commissioning of the E190 aircraft, alongside ongoing employee headwinds.

Shareholders are looking to the August 18 announcement from the ACCC regarding the Qantas scrip takeover offer for Alliance Aviation Services at an equivalent share price of $4.75 and Credit Suisse predicts the deal will ultimately be successful.

The analyst has a fundamental fair value of $3.75 in the event the takeover is unsuccessful. An Outperform rating is maintained wth a $4.75 target. 

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $3.47 Difference: $1.28
If AQZ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.77, suggesting upside of 39.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AQZ as Buy (1) -

Following FY22 results for Alliance Aviation Services, which revealed ongoing covid-related disruption, Ord Minnett lowers its FY23 and FY24 profit estimates by -19% and -7%, and the target price falls by -10% to $4.50. 

While the FY22 profit was a -3% miss versus expectation, the analyst is more concerned by deployment delays for the fleet of Embraer E190's. Management now expects full deployment by March 2023.

The ACCC review of the proposed takeover by Qantas Airways ((QAN)) is due on August 18.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.47 Difference: $1.03
If AQZ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.77, suggesting upside of 39.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ARF as Neutral (3) -

Arena REIT reported "solid results" in FY22 according to Credit Suisse with the REIT guiding to a higher than expected dividend of 5% growth or 16.8c for FY23.

The broker notes the positive 2-year outlook from the combination of recent acquisitions and completions flowing through, alongside rental growth and a sustainable debt profile of 20% gearing, with 77% of the floating debt hedged. Income will benefit from inflation.

The broker's earnings forecasts are adjusted by 0.8% and 0.9% for FY23 and FY24, respectively.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $4.49 from $4.36.

Target price is $4.49 Current Price is $4.77 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target).
If ARF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.49, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ARF as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Arena REIT's FY22 earnings were in line with Macquarie's forecast. FY23 dividend guidance is nevertheless -3% below expectations,
mainly driven by lower development completions and returns.

Arena maintains superior growth relative to peers driven by its development pipeline in early learning centres, Macquarie notes. but with development returns moderating and interest expense headwinds impacting growth, the broker has become more cautious on the outlook.

Given an elevated valuation and forecast 3.5% dividend yield, Macquarie downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Target falls to $4.74 from $4.92.

Target price is $4.74 Current Price is $4.77 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If ARF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.49, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ARF as Equal-weight (3) -

Arena REIT's FY22 earnings of 16.3 cents per share are in line with Morgan Stanley's forecasts, and the broker notes initial guidance for dividends of 16.8 cents per share in FY23 equates to 5% growth in the coming year.

The broker is positive on Arena REIT's FY23 outlook, noting 90% of the REIT's leases subject to Consumer Price Index rent escalation in the coming year, while noting tenants remain in good shape with a 10.6% rent to revenue ratio. 

The Equal-Weight rating and target price of $4.25 are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $4.77 Difference: minus $0.52 (current price is over target).
If ARF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.49, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BBN as Buy (1) -

Today's FY22 profit for Baby Bunting was broadly in-line with Citi's expectations, and the broker's first impression is the market will like a higher store rollout target and total addressable market (TAM) upgrade.

Another positive was a slight beat on gross margins, notes Citi, while negatives included a slower rollout of stores in FY22 and delays in supply for the number one selling pram. Cost of doing business (CODB) is also growing faster than sales. 

The long term rollout target was raised by ten stores in Australia, while clothing and toys lift the total addressable market (TAM), explains the analyst. More clarity is awaited on the cost outlook. The Buy rating and $6.22 target are retained.

Target price is $6.22 Current Price is $4.86 Difference: $1.36
If BBN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.97, suggesting upside of 28.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CBA as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes a lower quality provision release saw CommBank deliver a 4.5% earnings per share beat to consensus forecasts. The broker does anticipate the strong fourth quarter operational performance leaves the bank well positioned to face a challenging 6-12 month outlook.

Estimating current Business Banking revenue of $20bn per annum, UBS sees a potential growth opportunity for the bank. The broker anticipates this could grow 6% in FY23, and calculates a 4 percentage point market share gain could equate to $500m in earnings for CommBank, or a more than 5% increase to group earnings per share.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $100.00 from $105.00.

Target price is $100.00 Current Price is $100.85 Difference: minus $0.85 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $87.73, suggesting downside of -12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CIP as Hold (3) -

Following FY22 results for Centuria Industrial REIT, Morgans lowers its forecasts for funds from operations (FFO) for FY23 and FY24 by around -12%, after incorporating higher interest costs. 

While the FY22 result was in-line with guidance, FY23 guidance for FFO of 17cpu and a dividend of 16cpu fell short of the analyst's forecast. The target price is reduced to $3.40 from $4.12, which assumes a 50bps cap rate expansion.

The portfolio is now valued at $4.1bn, following a 11% uplift from June revaluations. Hold.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.05 Difference: $0.35
If CIP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.43, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Overweight (1) -

The turnaround for CSL has arrived, according to Morgan Stanley. This view follows a review of quarterly results for peer Haemonetrics, which revealed organic plasma growth of 43.9%.

US plasma collection volumes for Haemonetrics increased 40% year-on-year, two times historic seasonality, and the company increased FY23 plasma growth guidance to 15-20% from 7-12%. The broker expects similar trends for CSL.

The Overweight rating and $312 target are unchanged. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $312.00 Current Price is $295.10 Difference: $16.9
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $322.32, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CTD as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse previews the upcoming Corporate Travel Management FYY22 earnings results, which are due to be announced on August 17.

The analyst notes the June quarter update suggested a strong end to FY22 with the SME market continuing to outperform the  multinational sector, but risks of rising macro headwinds remain.

The strength in the SME market could provide for better than expected results, compared to the May update, and Credit Suisse believes management will offer up conservative guidance for FY23 at the October 12 AGM.

A Neutral rating and $19.60 price target are retained.

Target price is $19.60 Current Price is $20.80 Difference: minus $1.2 (current price is over target).
If CTD meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $24.51, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GQG as Add (1) -

Half year result for GQG Partners was in-line with Morgans expectations with ongoing solid net inflows and a strong relative investment performance. Net inflows are now expected for the 2H and FY23, based on the investment performance.

The analyst likes the flows momentum, attractive multiple and growth options and maintains the Add rating. The target falls to $2.02 from $2.05 after minor EPS downgrades due to adjusted revenue margin assumptions, and a slightly higher opex forecast.

Target price is $2.02 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: $0.41
If GQG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IAG as Buy (1) -

Following an initial review of today's largely pre-released FY22 result for Insurance Australia Group, Citi feels the main swing factor for FY23 will be claims inflation.

Management expects a FY23 underlying margin of 14.0-16.0%, with an uplift provided by rate increases and higher investment yield. These positives are expected to offset an increased perils allowance and higher claims inflation and reinsurance costs.

Compared to the analyst's forecasts the gross written premium (GWP) was a slight miss in Intermediated, stronger in NZ and largely in-line for Direct.The final dividend of 5cps missed expectation for 7cps, though 70% franking is some compensation.

The Buy rating and $5.10 target are retained.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.61 Difference: $0.49
If IAG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.88, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IAG as Sell (5) -

In an initial review of today's FY22 result for Insurance Australia Group, UBS notes both cash earnings and the dividend of 5cps came in below consensus estimates. While volumes remain weak, the underlying margin beat the broker's forecast.

Overall, the result was not as bad as UBS had feared and may support improved profitability in FY23, as long as claims inflation behaves.

Cash profit was $213m versus the analyst's forecast for $239m and the consensus $239m expectation. Management reiterated FY23 guidance and there were no material reserve releases or strengthening for prior periods.

The Sell rating and $4.10 target are retained.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $4.61 Difference: minus $0.51 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.88, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IPL as Buy (1) -

With fertiliser prices remaining elevated through the northern summer, UBS has lifted its earnings per share forecasts for Incitec Pivot by 3-10% in FY22-24, with diammonium phosphate (DAP) and ammonia trading 50% and 80% higher than last year respectively.

With supply-side constraints and strong demand continuing to support high pricing, the broker is predicting DAP pricing to average US$750-912 per tonne in FY22-23, and ammonia to reach US$1,000-1,021 per tonne.

UBS also notes Incitec Pivot has announced its intention to separate its Fertilisers and Explosives segments, and expects additional information will be provided at the upcoming investor day. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases marginally to $4.45 from $4.43.

Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $3.66 Difference: $0.79
If IPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.18, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates JBH as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse previews the upcoming trading update for JB Hi-Fi at the FY22 results on August 19.

The broker is looking to FY23, as FY22 earnings were pre-released on July 19. 

Early indications from frequency data suggest that July sales are trading above trend, and Credit Suisse raises 1Q23 sales estimates by 1.8% for JBH Australia and 2.8% for The Good Guys,

Credit Suisse acknowledges that JB Hi-Fi is likely to trade sideways with concerns over the pull forward of spending during the pandemic, but points out the strength of the company's balance sheet and attractive valuation.

The Outperform rating is retained and with a $57.23 price target.

Target price is $57.23 Current Price is $46.04 Difference: $11.19
If JBH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $46.86, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MDC as Speculative Buy (1) -

Medlab Clinical's target price rises dramatically to $44.53 from $0.30 after Morgans incorporates a share consolidation (1 share for every existing 150) into forecasts.

Additionally, shareholders have approved management's plans for a dual listing in the US. The Speculative Buy rating is unchanged.

Target price is $44.53 Current Price is $11.00 Difference: $33.53
If MDC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 305% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MGR as Buy (1) -

On balance, Citi remains positive about Mirvac Group post the earnings results. In view of the company's FY23 guidance, the broker points to an uncertain earnings mix, noting the following:

Residential sale forecasts have downside risks with volumes skewed to 4Q23 or delayed until FY24; the doubling of commercial profits depends on industrial stake sell-downs; the development pipeline is contingent on $1.3bn sale of office/CBD and retail assets, as well as higher-than-assumed debt costs.

Citi prefers Mirvac Group to Stockland ((SGR)) and highlights the high portfolio of quality exposure to apartments, which are seen as more defensive as well as the $30bn development pipeline.

The stock has underperformed the sector and is trading at the lower range of the long-term PER valuation range.

A Buy rating is maintained and the price target is raised to $2.60 from $2.50, adjusted for higher property valuations.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.17 Difference: $0.43
If MGR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.47, suggesting upside of 16.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MGR as Outperform (1) -

Mirvac Group's FY22 result was a little soft, Macquarie suggests, with residential settlement delays resulting from wet weather offset by more limited covid rent relief and a land tax rebate. But FY23 guidance is a key positive.

To provide in-line FY23 guidance of 3% operating earnings growth in an environment of rising interest rates, a slowing residential market, rising construction costs and a decline in commercial trading profits is of greater significance, in the broker's view.

Mirvac has also announced a $1.3bn divestment program to improve the quality of the portfolio and to fund the development pipeline, suggesting to Macquarie a buyback may be an option. Outperform and $2.39 target retained.

Target price is $2.39 Current Price is $2.17 Difference: $0.22
If MGR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.47, suggesting upside of 16.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MGR as Equal-weight (3) -

Having delivered 15.1 cents per share funds from operations in FY22, in line with Morgan Stanley's forecasts, Mirvac Group is guiding to more than 2.6% earnings growth in FY23.

The broker notes the FY22 result did benefit from a $16m gain on the sale of Smiths Lane and a $13m land tax rebate, making it difficult for Morgan Stanley to judge the full year result.

The 15.5 cents per share funds from operations guidance for FY23 was a pleasant surprise for the broker, which was predicting 15.3 cents per share, but notes guidance may not be secure with the company assuming $45-50m of commercial development profits yet to be contracted.

The Equal-Weight rating and target price of $2.30 are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.17 Difference: $0.13
If MGR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.47, suggesting upside of 16.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MGR as Buy (1) -

Mirvac Group's FY22 result revealed nothing to dissuade Ord Minnett from its Buy rating. It's felt shares trade at an excessive discount to net tangible asset (NTA) value, which rose 3cps in the 2H.

Funds from operations (FFO) were marginally ahead of the broker's forecast and the unfranked final dividend of 5.1cps was in-line, while FY23 guidance for FFO growth of 3% was a beat. The target price rises to $2.60 from $2.50.

In a correcting phase of the asset cycle, the analyst feels quality will prove "critical" and Mirvac arguably has the highest quality portfolio in the listed space.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.17 Difference: $0.43
If MGR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.47, suggesting upside of 16.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MYX as Neutral (3) -

Mayne Pharma announced the sale of its Metrics division to Catalent for net US$445m, with the transaction expected to close by the end of 2022.

Citi points out the company is divesting the most profitable business, leaving Mayne Pharma with a weakened operational profile, although given the debt profile and the capex requirements for the launch of the novel oral contraceptive, Nexstellis, the company had little choice.

Mayne Pharma will be left with a considerably weaker and higher risk business profile with generics viewed by Citi as "structurally challenged".

The analyst points to questions around how any excess funds from the sale will be returned to shareholders. A Neutral/high risk rating and $0.30 target, remain unchanged.

 Mayne Pharma is due to report FY22 earnings on August 28.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If MYX meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PLS as Buy (1) -

Citi updates earnings forecasts post the June quarter result for Pilbara Minerals, alongside the broker's higher lithium price forecasts.

EBITDA forecast is lowered by -9% for FY22 adjusting for the results and FY23 and FY24 forecasts are raised on the higher spodumene prices.

A Buy recommendation is retained with a $3.60 price target.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: $0.49
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates QBE as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse views the 1H22 earnings results from QBE Insurance as inline with expectations for the 18% growth in gross written premiums (GWP) and a slight miss on margins.

Notably the rate premium increases were higher than expected, and the growth has continued into the 3Q22 with improvements in both North America and Australia. The company upgraded GWP forecasts to 10% from single digits for FY22.

The broker provides minor earnings forecast revisions of -2.5% and -0.1% for FY22 and FY23, respectively.

After adjusting for a change in the valuation multiple, the target price is raised to $17.84 from $16.57.

Outperform rating is retained.

Target price is $17.84 Current Price is $12.54 Difference: $5.3
If QBE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.72, suggesting upside of 28.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QBE as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie found QBE Insurance's result to be a touch weaker than expected, with most metrics on track save reserve strengthening, which fell well shy of Macquarie's forecast.

Gross operating premium was only slightly upgraded and did not include FX challenges, while gearing disappointed.

On further examination, Macquarie found that although there were only a couple of adjustments in the half, they were material for the ratios. QBE’s adjusted combined operating ratio was 92.9% which management is using for its below 94% CoR guidance, which is either conservative or implies a significant 2H22 bounce back.

Outperform rating and $14 target price retained, the broker believing continuing strength in the global insurance pricing cycle, combined with rising bond yields, should support earnings in the second half.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $12.54 Difference: $1.46
If QBE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.72, suggesting upside of 28.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QBE as Overweight (1) -

Despite inflation pressures, Morgan Stanley assesses a clean 1H result from QBE Insurance and believes earnings quality can improve further with more de-risking of US catastrophe insurance.

The broker highlights strong pricing (ahead of claims inflation), a better combined ratio and reserves under control as takeaways from the 1H result.

Overweight. The $16.00 target is maintained despite earnings downgrades as the broker has increased confidence in execution by management. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $12.54 Difference: $3.46
If QBE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.72, suggesting upside of 28.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates QBE as Add (1) -

First half reported profit for QBE Insurance was comfortably ahead of the consensus estimate, while the 9cps interim dividend exceeded Morgans 7cps forecast. Key FY22 guidance parameters were largely unchanged.

The broker maintains its Add rating and expects increased earnings over the next few years via rising bond yields, premium rate increases and lower costs. The price target rises to $14.93 from $14.76.

Target price is $14.93 Current Price is $12.54 Difference: $2.39
If QBE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.72, suggesting upside of 28.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QBE as Buy (1) -

Following QBE Insurance's 1H results, Ord Minnett maintains its Buy rating given further-strengthened reserves and a good pricing environment. Underlying net profit, the combined operating ratio (COR) and the insurance margin all exceeded expectation.

An unfranked interim dividend of 9cps was well ahead of the broker's 2.4cps estimate.

The analyst observes the stock is trading on very low price to earnings multiples compared to domestic and many international peers. The target price of $17.00 is retained. Management made no change to guidance.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $12.54 Difference: $4.46
If QBE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.72, suggesting upside of 28.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates QBE as Buy (1) -

Accounting for a volatile backdrop, UBS finds QBE Insurance's first half results reasonable, noting underlying profitability trends showed improvement.

While QBE Insurance's insurance margin declined on the previous comparable period to 9.5%, UBS notes underlying margins rose 2.3 percentage points to 10.7%, and expects this momentum to carry into FY23. The broker finds the company on track to restoring profitability, and expects progress to be made in the coming 12-18 months. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $17.00 from $16.00.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $12.54 Difference: $4.46
If QBE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.72, suggesting upside of 28.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RMD as Buy (1) -

It is Citi's initial glance conclusion that ResMed's Q4 performance, released earlier this morning, is in-line as far as revenue and operational profit (EBIT) are concerned.

In addition, observes the broker, company management seems confident about FY23 device production ramp-up and permanent market share gains from competitor Philips' troubles.

Adjusted EPS beats market consensus by some 3.5%, on the broker's read. But also: the non-gaap tax rate was lower than usual, 13% versus 18% in the previous year.

Citi anticipates positive updates lifting consensus estimates post today's release. Buy. Target $34.50.

Target price is $34.50 Current Price is $34.62 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If RMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $36.13, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

With South32 due to report FY22 results on August 25, Macquarie expects a final dividend of US16cps (consensus US17.1cps) and an expansion of the share buy-back program.

The broker forecasts US$10.7bn in revenue for the financial year and believes the company can generate strong cash flows in the near term, potentially leading to additional shareholder returns and growth.

The Outperform rating and $5.90 target are retained.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $4.04 Difference: $1.86
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.30, suggesting upside of 31.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SGR as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse considers the NSW Legislation amendments to the NSW Casino Act post the Bell inquiry, with the law expected to be enacted during in the last quarter of 2022.

The broker points out earnings forecasts for Star Entertainment are conservative and -9% below consensus, with only slight impacts from the new legislation envisaged.

With the NSW inquiry into pubs and clubs, Credit Suisse assesses some "modest competitive disadvantages" for the company may result.

A Neutral rating and a target price of $2.95 are retained.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.89 Difference: $0.06
If SGR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.54, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SHL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley assesses results for Sonic Healthcare's overseas peer Synlab support the broker's forecast for Sonic's German business, despite a sharp contraction in sequential performance by Synlab.

The Overweight rating and $36.35 target are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $36.35 Current Price is $34.75 Difference: $1.6
If SHL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.13, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SIG as Neutral (3) -

After recent press reports of Home Consortium ((HMC)) launching a new private equity fund with an 13.5% stake in Sigma Healthcare, Macquarie reviews valuations. The target rises to $0.57 from $0.52 on rising strategic appeal and increased peer multiples.

The remaining distribution centres on the balance sheet were revalued less than a year ago at $77m for land and buildings, and the broker estimates a combined annual rent of $3.5m. Management intends to outlay a further -$18m to expand the centres in FY23.

The analyst believes the return on invested capital in the pharmacy remains weak and retains its Neutral rating.

Target price is $0.57 Current Price is $0.67 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If SIG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.52, suggesting downside of -22.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates STO as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse bemoans the -35% share price underperformance of Santos relative to the stock's peers. in what should have been one of the best years for the company with such robust headwinds (oil price up 80% and LNG prices up 180%).

The broker views the underperformance as driven by overly optimistic market expectations, post the Oil Search merger at the end of 2021, followed by what the analyst considers as a "rare" earnings disappointment in early 2022.

While the market expectations have adjusted, Credit Suisse points out there is still scope for more negative news.

Santos is viewed as offering exposure to the LNG market but is in need of a positive catalyst, notes the analyst. 

The price target is lowered to $8.45 from $9.25.

An Outperform rating is retained.

Target price is $8.45 Current Price is $7.12 Difference: $1.33
If STO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.51, suggesting upside of 32.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates STO as Overweight (1) -

As more gas will need to be delivered into NSW, Morgan Stanley sees the logic in the small acquisition by Santos of the Hunter Gas Pipeline company.

More importantly, the transaction shows Santos is keen to progress its Narrabri project, which is currently ascribed no value by the market.

The Overweight rating and $11.00 target price are maintained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $7.12 Difference: $3.88
If STO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.51, suggesting upside of 32.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates TLS as Outperform (1) -

 The FY22 Telstra results came in above Credit Suisse's expectations as well as consensus, with stronger performance form InfraCo Fixed, offsetting the lower than anticipated results from Mobile and Fixed.

The 8.5c dividend per share for the 2H22 was higher than estimates, resulting in the broker upgrading its dividend forecasts to 17cps and 18cps for FY23 and FY24, respectively. 

The company also provided earnings guidance inline with expectations for FY23, however Credit Suisse stressed Telstra will need to deliver on its mobile growth strategy to achieve the FY25 earnings growth targets.

The price target is unchanged at $4.50 with an Outperform recommendation.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $0.54
If TLS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.38, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TLS as Neutral (3) -

In the wake of FY22 results for Telstra, Macquarie adjusts its FY23-25 EPS forecasts by 5%, -5% and -9%, respectively, to reflects softer NBN margins and increased competition in enterprise fibre. The target falls by -7% to $3.80 and the Neutral rating is unchanged.

While the FY22 result exceeded the broker's (and the consensus) forecast, management's FY23 outlook was a slight miss, as was capex guidance. The result was inflated by a profit on asset sales, in the analyst's view.

Macquarie sees limited downside risk to the dividend (increased to 8.5cps per half), but doesn't see another increase until FY25, as the EPS-based payout ratio is around 100%.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If TLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.38, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TLS as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley's first impression of an outcome from yesterday's FY22 result for Telstra is for shares to outperform in uncertain markets. A small beat over forecast was achieved for earnings (EBITDA), while new FY23 guidance now sits 1% above the consensus estimate.

The broker's positive investment thesis, based on rising average revenue per user (ARPU), was bolstered after management targeted a lift in mobile service revenue by a mid-single digit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to FY25.

The Overweight rating and $4.60 target are unchanged. Industry View: In-Line. The full year dividend was 16.5cps.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $0.64
If TLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.38, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TLS as Add (1) -

Morgans assesses a good FY22 result from Telstra (upper-end of guidance), with free cash flow beating expectations and the final dividend rising to 8.5cps from 8cps. It's felt the company has comfortably turned the corner, guiding to growth in underlying earnings (EBITDA).

The analyst highlights a decline in expenses, combined with mobile earnings growing 20% year-on-year, drove underlying earnings 5% higher year-on-year.

While FY23 guidance was in-line with the consensus forecast, it was 3% ahead of the broker's estimate. FY23 and FY24 EPS estimates are raised by 7% and 10% and the target rises to $4.60 from $4.56. The Add rating is maintained.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $0.64
If TLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.38, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TLS as Buy (1) -

Telstra's FY22 result outpaced Ord Minnett's forecast, landing at the top of guidance, while the dividend rises 0.5c to 16.5c. Shares are recommended to investors for the outlook on mobile and the monetisation of InfraCo.

A fully franked final divided of 8.5cps was declared, taking the full-year payout to 16.5cps, versus Ord Minnett's 16cps expectation.

On the downside, inflation is driving higher capital expenditure, observes the analyst.

All up, the broker expects consensus upgrades given estimates sit at the lower end of guidance.

The Buy rating is retained, while the target price is lowered to $4.60 from $4.65.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $0.64
If TLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.38, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLS as Neutral (3) -

While Telstra's second half earnings of $3.79bn were largely in line with UBS's expectations the broker notes a decline in FY23 guidance suggests inflationary pressures and soft fixed consumer and small business services in operation growth will impact near-term.

The company is now guiding to earnings of $7.5-7.7bn in FY23, but remaining confident in Telstra's ability to achieve an average compound annual growth rate of 7% through to FY25, UBS has lifted its earnings forecasts for FY23-26 by an average of 4.5%. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $4.15 from $4.00.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $0.19
If TLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.38, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources