Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates AEL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie continues to prefer Amplitude Energy with an Outperform rating where the Otway exploration drilling campaign is being conducted and the analyst reckons there is material upside.

ConocoPhillips discovery opens up opportunities for third party gas at Amplitude's Athena plant or Beach Energy's ((BPT)) Otway.

The stock is a top pick for investors wanting exposure to the Australian east coast gas market, with the Athena gas plant running at around 10% capacity and able to move to 120-150Tj/day with no major plant capex.

The analyst lifts EPS forecasts by 3% for FY26/FY27 on higher Orbost production and lower financing costs.

Target price is raised by 2% to $3.90.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $1.16
If AEL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.21, suggesting upside of 17.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates APA as Trim (4) -

Morgans highlights APA Group's agreement with CS Energy to progress the 400MW Brigalow peaking power plant provides early replenishment of its growth capex pipeline.

The broker observes the group will fund and own 80% of the project, earning inflation-linked lease-style revenue under a 25-year hedge offtake agreement, with first operations targeted for 2028-29.

Project cost is expected to exceed -$1bn and will form part of APA’s -$2.1bn organic capex program across FY26-28.

Morgans retains a Trim rating and lowers its target to $7.74 from $7.88.

Target price is $7.74 Current Price is $9.22 Difference: minus $1.48 (current price is over target).
If APA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.41, suggesting downside of -8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AUB as Buy (1) -

Swedish private equity firm EQT and CVC Capital Partners (Asia Pacific) have walked away from their $45 bid for AUB Group.

Ord Minnett sees the risk-reward as favourable at the current level after a share price fall, noting the company would accept an offer from alternative bidders at $45/share, should they emerge.

Buy remains. Target cut to $35.71 from $42.17 as the broker removes the takeover premium.

Target price is $35.71 Current Price is $30.63 Difference: $5.08
If AUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.40, suggesting upside of 21.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BPT as Underperform (5) -

ConocoPhillips' discovery opens up opportunities for third-party gas at Amplitude Energy's ((AEL)) Athena plant or Beach Energy's Otway.

Macquarie highlights the energy company has a mature portfolio which is challenged, and considered as overvalued by the equity market. Potential further delays to Waitsia production could push earnings to the lower end of FY26 guidance.

The analyst lowers EPS forecasts for higher costs arising from tariffs and tolls by -26% for FY26 and -23% for FY27.

Macquarie remains Underweight on Beach and lowers the target price by -12% to 80c due to higher costs.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: minus $0.38 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.09, suggesting downside of -8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BRG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie's 3Q2025 kitchen benchmark revenue rose 6.3% y/y, with the de'Longhi revenue index growth up 11.2%.

Historically the analyst notes, Breville Group has outperformed benchmark revenue growth by circa 11% from 2018-2024, underpinned by coffee, new product developments and new markets.

Nespresso saw 8.5% organic revenue growth in 3Q, including a 5.3% price rise with double digit US growth. Williams Sonoma kitchen segment's like-for-like revenue grew 7.3%, with selective price rises.

While Whirlpool's KitchenAid segment sales rose 9.5% in constant currency, with new products like Auto Coffee and cordless, SharkNinja cooking and beverage sales rose 6.3% due to Ninja Luxe Cafe expression.

Macquarie continues to rate Breville as Outperform with a $39.20 target.

Target price is $39.20 Current Price is $30.52 Difference: $8.68
If BRG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.38, suggesting upside of 27.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BRI as Buy (1) -

Big River Industries will acquire John’s Building Supplies for up to -$17m, implying to Ord Minnett an attractive EV/EBITDA multiple of around 3.3x. Earnings (EBITDA) margins are expected to lift immediately, with the acquisition providing significant EPS accretion.

The upfront consideration of -$15.0m will be funded by around -$10.0m in cash via equity raising, -$2.0m in scrip, and -$3.0m in existing bank facilities.

The broker notes the deal broadens Big River's Western Australian exposure (a region outperforming NSW and Victoria) and strengthens its position in higher-margin cladding products.

Ord Minnett lifts its target price to $1.65 from $1.60 and maintains a Buy rating.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $0.35
If BRI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BSL as Buy (1) -

UBS highlights three key points from BlueScope Steel's New Zealand investor day.

NZ Steel is loss-making, but the shift to an electric arc furnace from April 26 should add major flexibility and lower costs, potentially lifting EBIT. Surplus land is huge (1,250ha), yet monetisation will be gradual and strategic to avoid oversupplying the market.

Near-term NZ demand stays soft, with any real recovery pushed to FY27 given flat conditions and likely election-related pauses in 2026.

Buy retained. Target rises to $27.50 from $26.50 on an increase in target multiple to 10x from 9x, following an increase in peer multiples, partly offset by minor downgrades to FY26-28 EPS forecasts.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $24.35 Difference: $3.15
If BSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.50, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CKF as Buy (1) -

Citi's first glance at today's interim results by Collins Foods suggests a 'beat' against expectations. Underlying profit of $30.8m is 13% above consensus, supported by stronger sales, gross margin improvement and disciplined cost control, notes the broker.

KFC Australia remained the key driver, explain the analysts, delivering solid same-store sales growth and margin expansion, while Germany continued to post healthy growth despite a slight moderation.

Citi explains European margins were softer due to higher poultry costs, and the Netherlands remained challenging.

Management upgraded FY26 profit guidance to mid-to-high teens from low-to-mid teens previously. Early 2H trading in Australia is tracking ahead of the consensus expectation, while European margins are set to improve as cost pressures ease.

Buy rating. Target 13.07.

Target price is $13.07 Current Price is $11.60 Difference: $1.47
If CKF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.19, suggesting downside of -0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CQR as Buy (1) -

Charter Hall Convenience Retail Fund, partly owned by Charter Hall Retail REIT, has advanced its acquisition pipeline through the -$152.5m Southport Park Shopping Centre purchase on the Gold Coast.

Citi notes Charter Hall Retail REIT benefits from the acquisition as it enhances exposure to resilient neighbourhood retail. The asset is considered valuable given its rare triple-supermarket tenancy and contribution to portfolio scale.

The analysts believe medium-term net asset values are on the rise as cap rates compress and rental growth persists.

Buy. Target unchanged at $4.50.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.05 Difference: $0.45
If CQR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.31, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CTD as No Rating (-1) -

Management at Corporate Travel Management has advised a draft forensic review by KPMG indicates materially worse revenue restatements and cash implications than previously expected by Morgans.

Revenue recognised on several large UK contracts between 2021 and 2023 will need to be reversed, with up to -GBP58.2m to be restated across FY23 and FY24 and further adjustments required in FY25.

Refunds to impacted clients will create a material cash outflow, highlights the broker, while additional provisions have been taken in A&NZ. Audited FY25 accounts cannot yet be released.

Morgans warns of potential reputational damage and contract or staff losses as reviews continue.

The broker places its rating, target and forecasts under review. Previously the broker had an Add rating and $16.05 target.

Current Price is $0.00. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $12.74, suggesting downside of -20.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GGP as Outperform (1) -

Greatland Resources' Havieron study is aiming for a 17-year mine life, with Macquarie estimating 20 years with annual production of 266koz, some -14% below the consensus estimate of around 310koz. Estimate for copper is 9.6ktpa, -7% below consensus.

All-in sustaining costs is $1,610/oz, and the pre-production capital of $1,065m meets Macquarie's forecast at $1.1bn.

On balance, the study came in lower on steady state production expectations but was better on costs and ramp-up to steady state, the analyst remarks. As management looks to Telfer extensions and integration, upside potential to Havieron is viewed as likely.

Outperform rated with a $10.50 target unchanged.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $8.32 Difference: $2.18
If GGP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.50, suggesting upside of 26.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GGP as Buy (1) -

Greatland Resources' feasibility study for combining Haverion ore with the Telfer gold mill broadly meets market expectations and supports the project’s economics, Ord Minnett highlights.

The broker notes high-grade Haverion feed from 2028 should materially lower Telfer’s costs, shifting it from high-cost to low-cost production. Capex of $1.74bn is in line with market expectations and slightly below the broker's prior estimates, and LOM AISC is 9% better than expected.

Throughput is 3.9Mtpa, leading to 266koz gold p.a., -4% below the broker's forecast, but upside is seen if Telfer mine life is extended via FY26 reserve/resource updates.

No change to forecasts. Buy and $12 target price unchanged.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $8.32 Difference: $3.68
If GGP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.50, suggesting upside of 26.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

Citi notes Goodman Group is positioned for FY26 capital-raising and leasing catalysts supported by strong demand for data-centre capacity. It's felt the development pipeline timing and investor appetite create upside risk around the February results.

The analysts expect strong development returns as assets de-risk. The group's earnings streams are seen benefiting from development gains and recurring management, development and performance fees across partnered projects.

Separately, Citi’s October Goodman Jobs Tracker shows global hiring activity remaining solid across Goodman’s development centre. Job postings are running above the 12-month weekly average despite a slight slowdown in early November.

The broker views sustained recruitment in key data-centre markets, including Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Madrid, Paris and Vilvoorde, as a potential leading indicator of increased development activity.

Citi notes Goodman’s Work in Progress is expected to rise to more than $17bn by June 2026 from $12.4bn currently, supported by a secured pipeline, now at 3.4GW.

Buy rating for Goodman Group. Target unchanged at $40.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $29.78 Difference: $10.22
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.28, suggesting upside of 24.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GPT as Re-initiation of coverage with Accumulate (2) -

Morgans re-initiates coverage on GPT Group with an Accumulate rating and $6.20 target. 

The broker highlights the group's shift toward a co-investment-led funds management model, with plans to grow assets under management to more than $85bn from $37bn and deliver 5-7% annual earnings growth.

Management aims to use its $12bn balance sheet portfolio to seed new funds, creating a more capital-light structure that may support a higher valuation multiple over time, explains the analyst.

Cap rates are viewed as having stabilised, while elevated construction costs are expected to constrain new supply. Funds management earnings are considered undervalued relative to peers.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $5.52 Difference: $0.68
If GPT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.88, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GTK as Neutral (3) -

Gentrack Group's Sydney strategy day highlighted a successful Genesis G2 rollout under the old model. Future G2 deployments will use a new operating model to speed delivery, reduce risk, and accelerate ARR conversion, UBS highlights.

The broker observed product builder demo showed easy drag-and-drop creation plus AI agents tightly integrated with Salesforce. Veovo is positioned for Airport 4.0 growth with the recent NAV Canada win and Middle East momentum.

The broker notes Europe’s main hurdle is securing enough staff and handling complex system-integration needs, while the Asian pipeline received minimal attention.

No change to forecast. Neutral retained with unchanged target of NZ$9.65.

Current Price is $9.24. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $10.00, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IDX as Outperform (1) -

Integral Diagnostics experienced revenue growth of 8.3% y/y for September year to date, which lags the Medicare Benefits Schedule growth of 9.4%, although it has improved since 3.2% growth at the AGM update.

The lag is attributed to the slower ramp in MRI deregulation, Macquarie observes, notably in Melbourne.

The analyst continues to anticipate earnings (EBITDA) margin expansion in 2H26 with a higher earnings skew for 2H of 53% from 51%.

Macquarie lowers EPS estimates by -5% for FY26 and -2% for FY27 but views ongoing near term tailwinds to boost both the top line and margins. No change to target price of $3.40 with an Outperform rating.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.57 Difference: $0.83
If IDX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.57, suggesting upside of 38.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IEL as Neutral (3) -

The Australian student backdrop continues to deteriorate with university volume (no prior visa) down -28% in October, a further downgrade from September's -14% and August's -26%. Source markets for IDP Education fell, with India -12% and China -78%.

Macquarie highlights aligning visa volume to IDP's revenue recognition infers 1H26 market decline of around -20% to -50% for both Canada and Australia. There is a slight growth in the UK, where university volume rose 3% y/y in the September quarter versus 27% for June.

The analyst retains a Neutral rating with foreign student demand expected to return to major Western markets.

No change to $6 target or the broker's earnings forecasts.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: $0.85
If IEL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.59, suggesting upside of 30.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IGO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is clearing the way for higher lithium prices.

MIIT met with 12 major energy storage system (ESS) companies to discuss “anti-involution” to curb destructive, low-margin competition. 

This could create near-term opportunities for ESS price increases, notes the analyst, and support raw-material procurement. However, it's also thought sustained higher battery prices may slow ESS penetration and order growth over the medium to long term.

IGO Ltd is the broker's preferred lithium exposure. Outperform. Target $5.75.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $6.66 Difference: minus $0.91 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.71, suggesting downside of -13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IMD as Hold (3) -

Imdex will acquire 100% of Advanced Logic Technology and its subsidiary Mount Sopris Instruments for $98.9m upfront, adding leading borehole geophysical imaging tools and software.

Bell Potter notes this broadens Imdex's addressable market across mining, infrastructure, environmental and energy, complementing its sensors and EarthNet data platform. The deal will be funded with cash and existing debt, closing in 3Q26, with up to $35.4m earn-outs over 3 years.

It's expected to be EPS accretive in year one, pre-cost and revenue synergies. The broker's EPS forecast for FY26 reduced by -9% and by -1% for FY27.

Hold. Target trimmed to $3.60 from $3.90 on a higher WACC of 8.7% from 7.8% previously.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.40 Difference: $0.2
If IMD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.73, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IMD as Buy (1) -

Imdex is expanding its product suite through the acquisition of Advanced Logic Technology and Mount Sopris Instruments for upfront consideration of -$98.9m.

The deal is considered reasonable at a 15.4x earnings (EBITDA) multiple, stepping to around 21x when deferred payments are included.

The broker expects around 3% EPS accretion supported by Imdex's proven integration track record and scope for revenue and cost synergies.

The analysts highlight meaningful opportunity in currently unserviced borehole logging and telemetry markets valued at around $500-550m.

Unchanged Buy rating with a $4.20 target.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.40 Difference: $0.8
If IMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.73, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IMD as Accumulate (2) -

Morgans views Imdex's acquisition of Advanced Logic Technology and Mount Sopris Instruments favourably given their sensor focus and exposure to mining exploration. This is preferred by the analyst compared to acquiring purely software businesses.

The transaction is expected to contribute revenue and broaden the company's sensor and digital portfolio, with rental penetration offering scope to lift margins.

Target eases to $3.70 from $3.80. Accumulate rating maintained. 

The broker reminds investors Imdex remains the leading global provider of exploration tools and fluids and is well placed to benefit from a strengthening exploration cycle.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.40 Difference: $0.3
If IMD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.73, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IMD as Neutral (3) -

Imdex's acquisition of  Advanced Logic Technology (ALT) and its subsidiary Mount Sopris Instruments for $99m makes strategic sense to UBS as it fills a gap in its sensor suite.

The broker reckons big revenue synergy potential exists by using Imdex’s global sales network, mirroring the successful Devico rollout, especially in regions where ALT is underpenetrated. However, synergy delivery is crucial given the deal values ALT at 20x EBITDA versus Imdex’s 13x.

With close expected on 1 Feb 2026, the broker's forecasts include 5 months of ALT EBITDA, lifting Imdex's FY26 EBITDA to $149m.

Target rises to $3.50 from $3.30, driven by 3% and 2% EPS upgrades for FY26 and FY27, respectively, mainly from the inclusion of the ALT acquisition. Neutral maintained.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.40 Difference: $0.1
If IMD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.73, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IPH as Outperform (1) -

IPH Ltd's Australian filings in November fell -8.7% y/y versus the market up 8.6%, with market share slipping to 24.8% or 25.8% in 1H26 to date. Macquarie notes around 70% of the company's income is recurring.

US patent activity growth declined -6% q/q with a rolling -6.1% decline to August.

Macquarie downgrades EPS forecasts by -1% for FY26 and -2.5% for FY27 and cuts the target price by -27% to $4.04 from $5.55. No change to Outperform rating.

Target price is $4.04 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: $0.47
If IPH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.46, suggesting upside of 52.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MEI as Speculative Buy (1) -

Meteoric Resources and Viridis Mining and Minerals' ((VMM)) Nov 28 licence hearing has been postponed so the Environment Foundation can answer questions from the Federal Public Prosecutors.

The licence relates to Meteoric's Caldeira and Viridis' Colossus rare-earth projects in Poços de Caldas, Brazil.

Bell Potter notes for Meteoric, the concerns are nuclear-facility proximity, local/indigenous engagement, and activity in the Pedra Branca Buffer Zone.

The company is aiming for the Dec 19 council hearing, but delays are possible if more baseline monitoring is required. The broker doesn't see this as a major risk but notes it could take longer for the project to progress.

Speculative Buy retained with unchanged target of 25c.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.11
If MEI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 79% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.33, suggesting upside of 120.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MEI as Outperform (1) -

Meteoric Resources believes the preliminary licence delay, with a vote not handed down at the State Council for Environmental Policy meeting on November 28, is a procedural delay due to administrative issues.

Management continues to aim for a construction licence issuance in mid-2026. The company also recently flagged the successful completion of wet commissioning at its pilot plant in Brazil with nameplate capacity of 25kg of ore feed per hour.

Macquarie reiterates an Outperform rating with a 39c target price. No changes to the broker's earnings estimates.

Target price is $0.39 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.25
If MEI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 179% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.33, suggesting upside of 120.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MTS as Neutral (3) -

After further analysis of Metcash's interim results, Citi lowers its target price to $3.60 from $3.90 and retains a Neutral rating.

Hardware recovery assumptions embedded in consensus are viewed as unrealistic given flat detached housing approvals and a neutral interest-rate outlook.

A summary of the broker's first thoughts yesterday follows.

In a first take of Metcash's 1H26 result, Citi expects the earnings miss to lead to a lower share price today.

Underlying net profit of $126.7m missed the broker's forecast and consensus. Food outperformed, but Hardware and especially Liquor were materially weaker, and the interim dividend of 8.5c missed the broker's 9c estimate.

Hardware EBIT missed on margin pressure despite a better 2Q. Early 2H26 trading showed improving Supermarkets and Hardware momentum, offset by soft Liquor, with management still expecting positive sales trends through the rest of the half.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.36 Difference: $0.24
If MTS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.80, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MTS as Neutral (3) -

Metcash reported disappointing 1H26 results with underlying EBIT missing Macquarie's forecast by -10% and -5% on consensus estimate.

Tobacco sales fell around -35%, when excluded total revenue rose 7%. Hardware and liquor evidenced the biggest decline on margins versus expectations, down around -20 to -30bps y/y.

Management pointed to competition in food and hardware, as well as increased competitive pressures in liquor. Positively, cash conversion was upbeat with the 3-year cash realisation ratio at around 106%, well above guidance at 80-90%.

The broker lowers earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by around -5% to -9% over the medium term across all segments, the heftiest decline is in hardware, due to lower margin expectations.

Target price is downgraded by -12.5% to $3.50. Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.36 Difference: $0.14
If MTS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.80, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MTS as Equal-weight (3) -

Commenting on Metcash's 1H26 results and management call, Morgan Stanley observes FY26 finance costs guidance of $120-25m and capex $200m are unchanged. FY26 one-offs drop out in FY27, giving an earnings tailwind.

The broker notes competition is up but pricing is improving, with a better mix plus foodservice/convenience lifting margins, and more levers remain to defend them.

Ampol deal is annualising above $70m, with big customer growth helped by the Sorted platform and upgraded DCs, with more share-of-wallet upside.

Hardware margins remain under pressure with limited pricing power until volumes recover, and liquor faces lower price inflation/flat volumes but is gaining share.

Equal-weight with target price of $3.90. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.36 Difference: $0.54
If MTS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.80, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MTS as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes Metcash's 1H26 result missed market expectations, partly due to restructuring costs booked earlier than forecast. Food was in line, while Hardware and Liquor underperformed.

Early 2H26 activity showed 2.9% group sales growth, ahead of forecasts, but uneven. Food ex-tobacco was strong, Liquor flat, and Hardware was well below expected growth, the broker observes.

The broker sees the 1.4% rise in Food EBIT despite a -35% tobacco sales slump as a solid outcome. Liquor remains pressured by health/cost-of-living trends and promotion risks.

Hardware EBIT fell for a fifth straight half, with only tentative signs of stabilisation and a softer housing uplift outlook. The broker cut FY26 EPS forecast by -8%, FY27 by -9.2% and FY28 by -8.3% on challenges in Liquor and Hardware.

Target cut to $4.00 from $4.60. Buy maintained on valuation reasons.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.36 Difference: $0.64
If MTS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.80, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MTS as Buy (1) -

Metcash's 1H26 results were mixed, with sales up 0.4% y/y, underlying EBIT down -2.4% and net profit -5.9% lower.  Food and Corporate costs were better, but Hardware and Liquor were weaker, and underlying EBIT missed UBS's forecast.

Cash conversion was very strong at 103.4%, and early 2H26 sales are slightly down, -1.1% overall, though up 2.9% ex-tobacco.

The broker trimmed FY26 underlying EPS forecast by -4.4% and FY27 by -5.2% on softer Hardware and Liquor. Looking ahead, the broker remains confident in IHG’s recovery, while Total Tools is improving yet remains later-cycle with intense competition.

Buy maintained. Target trimmed to $4.00 from $4.35.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.36 Difference: $0.64
If MTS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.80, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MYS as Buy (1) -

Mystate's move to a single banking licence, effective 1 Dec, after absorbing Auswide Bank, has lifted Ord Minnett's confidence that synergies will land at the top end of the $15-20m target.

The broker reckons it enables the next wave of cost savings across funding, tech, products and brands, and removes Auswide’s prior capital constraints to support stronger group lending growth.

No change to forecasts. Buy retained with unchanged target of $4.98.

Target price is $4.98 Current Price is $4.40 Difference: $0.58
If MYS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NXT as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Managament at NextDC has reported a 71MW rise in contracted utilisation to 316MW as at December 1, supported by recent multi-site customer wins, explains Morgans.

The broker highlights contracted MWs are now tracking ahead of consensus, with FY26 guidance unchanged but capex lifted to around -$2.3bn to support new contracts.

Contracted additions are viewed as continuing through FY26, underpinning medium-term earnings as billing converts progressively between FY26 and FY29.

Morgans lifts its FY27 and FY28 earnings forecasts by around 4% while increasing capex assumptions across the forecast period.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Accumulate. Target of $19 is maintained given the broker was already forecasting additional, top of the market contract wins.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $13.72 Difference: $5.28
If NXT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.93, suggesting upside of 47.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NXT as Buy (1) -

NextDC has added 71MW contracted capacity five months into FY26, positioning the company for a new record of contract wins, UBS remarks. 

Very strong demand in Victoria, if resulting in new contracts in 2H26, creates upside risk to the broker and consensus forecasts. EBITDA visibility is high, with 100% contracted for FY26-28 and 70% for FY26–30.

The broker notes DA approval for Sydney S4/S5 remains a key catalyst for faster NSW contracting once builds start. Factoring in new contract wins and accelerated capex into the forecasts resulted in a 1-5% lift to EBITDA estimates for FY27-29.

Buy retained. Target rises to $21.85 from $21.45.

Target price is $21.85 Current Price is $13.72 Difference: $8.13
If NXT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.93, suggesting upside of 47.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PGC as Buy (1) -

Paragon Care will buy PT Haju Medical Indonesia for $70m, significantly boosting its currently modest Indonesian footprint and creating cross-selling potential, Bell Potter highlights.

The acquisition is targeted for an end-January 2026 close, and is done at a 9.1x December 2024 earnings multiple, the broker notes. The deal is funded with cash and debt, with $30m paid upfront and the rest via 2-year EBITDA earn-outs.

The broker trimmed FY26-27 revenue estimates by -4.5% and -5.1%, respectively, following the recent AGM guidance, with minor changes to EPS forecasts.

Buy retained with unchanged target of 49c.

Target price is $0.49 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: $0.195
If PGC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 66% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PXA as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes NSW settlement activity rose 4.4% in November y/y, down from 17.6% growth in October and 12.9% in September.

Qld activity accelerated to 8.2% growth in October from 3.8% in September (latest data). Extrapolating out to national activity with a 75%/25% weighting to NSW & VIC/QLD, estimated national activity rose 15.5% in October, the most robust month in 18 months.

The broker remains Outperform rated on Pexa Group. Target unchanged at $19.10. No change in the analyst's earnings forecasts.

Target price is $19.10 Current Price is $14.31 Difference: $4.79
If PXA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.81, suggesting upside of 23.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Citi expects management at Rio Tinto to outline a medium-term pathway for 3-4% annual copper-equivalent volume growth supported by Oyu Tolgoi, Simandou and lithium expansion. The company's Capital Markets Day 2025 will be held in London on 4 December.

Capex is seen remaining at -US$10-11bn. Citi also anticipates a clearer plan to narrow the cost gap with BHP Group ((BHP)) in Australian iron ore through operational self-help.

Portfolio simplification regarding non-core assets is viewed as a likely point of emphasis.

The market will look for meaningful progress on cost reduction and growth visibility, suggests Citi.

Target $140. Neutral,

Target price is $140.00 Current Price is $132.76 Difference: $7.24
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $129.42, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RMD as Overweight (1) -

The US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services has issued a final rule on the Competitive Bidding program, introducing a new reimbursement approach. Morgan Stanley reckons this could negatively affect ResMed's US average selling price (ASP) from FY28.

Details on the program’s scope are still pending, with covered product categories yet to be specified.

The broker's sensitivity analysis suggests a -5% US ASP drop from 1 Jan 2028 (with commercial insurance pricing following CMS) could cut FY28/29 EPS estimates by -3%/-6%, respectively. Valuation would reduce by around -US$16/share.

Overweight. Target unchanged at US$305. Industry View: In-Line.

Current Price is $37.50. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $49.01, suggesting upside of 29.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGM as Neutral (3) -

Sims' investor day showed its Sims Lifecycle Services (SLS) division is surging, helped by a 3x jump in DDR4 chip prices since August as suppliers pivot to DDR5 for AI. If momentum holds, it raises the chance the Sims story re-rates, UBS highlights.

On the other hand, ferrous scrap remained weak vs strong non-ferrous markets, a gap driven by Chinese steel oversupply and non-ferrous scarcity that looks set to persist, the broker notes.

Given the sustainability of SLS earnings is still unproven and already priced in , and ferrous weakness is offset by non-ferrous strength, the broker retains a Neutral rating.

Target rises to $17.15 from $15.00 on lift to EPS forecasts and rise in target multiple to 21x from 18x.

Target price is $17.15 Current Price is $17.07 Difference: $0.08
If SGM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.15, suggesting downside of -12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SXE as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Southern Cross Electrical Engineering lost arbitration against the CPB Dragados Samsung Joint Venture (CDSJV) over extra WestConnex M5 tunnel costs incurred by its subsidiary, Heyday.

The ruling hinged on strict time-bar claim deadlines, Bell Potter notes. The result is $22m of remaining delay/variation costs won’t be recovered, and $15m of prior security-payment recognised as revenue must be repaid, along with interest.

The company cut its underlying EBITDA guidance for FY26 to $21-24m from $65-68m, with the impacts to be recognised in 1H26 accounts.

Target cut to $2.35 from $2.50. Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $2.39 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If SXE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TUA as Buy (1) -

Tuas delivered stronger-than-expected mobile and broadband net-adds in 1Q FY26, with Citi highlighting continued momentum into 2Q and ongoing margin strength, reflecting disciplined cost control and operating leverage.

The broker attributes a step-up in customer traction to the announced M1 acquisition, with signs that subscriber gains are broad-based rather than stemming only from M1 customers.

Citi expects the M1 deal could be approved and completed soon, with substantial potential synergies and no adverse effect on net-add momentum.

Revenue and earnings are expected to accelerate through FY26, though Citi's financial forecasts have not been updated. Buy rating and target of $9.95 maintained.

Target price is $9.95 Current Price is $6.80 Difference: $3.15
If TUA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TUA as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley described Tuas' 1Q26 update at the AGM as strong, with revenue SG$44.2m, up 24.5% y/y, compared with its FY26 forecast of SG$181.1m.

EBITDA of SG$19.9m was up 23.6% y/y, including M1 one-offs, and compares with the broker's SG$81.3m FY26 forecast. Subscriber growth remained solid, tracking ahead of FY26 forecasts. 

Capex guidance was trimmed to SG$45–55m from SG$50-55m. M1 deal is progressing with capex synergies highlighted.

Overweight. Target unchanged at $9.50. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $6.80 Difference: $2.7
If TUA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Equal-weight (3) -

Treasury Wine Estates will take a goodwill impairment of at least $687m on its US business in 1H26 results due to weaker US wine trends and lower long-term earnings assumptions.

Morgan Stanley believes softer trading could also hit other US assets, meaning total impairments may be larger. The broker's EBITS forecasts for FY26/27 are currently -7%/-5% below consensus, respectively and a $700m write-down would cut NAV to $5.10/share from $5.90.

The broker has a downside catalyst watch for 4Q25, noting a mid-December update on China/US performance and new CEO Sam Fischer’s views may trigger further consensus downgrades.

Equal-weight. Target price $6.45. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $6.45 Current Price is $5.78 Difference: $0.67
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.16, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TWE as Hold (3) -

Management at Treasury Wine Estates expects to write down all goodwill associated with its US operations, reflecting weaker category trends and more conservative long-term assumptions.

The broker believes recent trading has likely been softer than anticipated, with a particularly weak 1H26 expected ahead of a broader strategy update from the new CEO in mid-December.

US conditions remain challenging across Luxury, Premium and Commercial wines, explains the analyst, compounded by disruption from the distributor transition in California.

Morgans retains a Hold rating and sets a $6.10 target, down from $6.35.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $5.78 Difference: $0.32
If TWE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.16, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

With the US wine market continuing to cool, Treasury Wine Estates is adopting more conservative long-term growth assumptions, triggering a major impairment review for its Americas units.

UBS notes the company flagged All Americas goodwill write-off (FY25 $687.4m) by the 1H26 result, with possible spillover to other assets.

The broker is pencilling in a total impairment of $787.4m, including a $100m brand-name write-down, resulting in a significant downgrade to FY26 net profit forecasts, but leaves underlying earnings estimates unchanged.

Next catalyst is investor call in mid-December, where the new CEO will provide initial observations plus updates on China and the US. Neutral retained and target slips to $6.25 from $6.50.

Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $5.78 Difference: $0.47
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.16, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VAU as Buy (1) -

UBS notes hedgebooks are shrinking through 2025 as gold miners pre-pay and unwind hedges to gain more upside exposure with gold tailwinds and a forecast rise to US$4,750/oz in 2H26.

The broker notes Northern Star Resources ((NST)), and Bellevue Gold ((BGL)) are still the most hedged, with over 25% of FY26-27 production. Vault Minerals, Ramelius Resources ((RMS)) and Persueus Mining ((PRU)) are expected to fully roll off hedges by FY27.

The broker remains overweight the sector with Buy retained for Newmont Mining ((NEM)), Northern Star, Genesis Minerals ((GMD)), Ramelius, Regis Resources ((RRL)), Vault and Bellevue. Evolution Mining ((EVN)) remains a Sell.

Revisions made to Vault's model following the recent hedge payment. Target rises to $6.60 from $6.50 (note the target reflects 6.5 to 1 share consolidation).

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $5.04 Difference: $1.56
If VAU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.37, suggesting upside of 25.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources