Australian Broker Call
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May 24, 2018
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
Last Updated: 04:40 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| AIZ - | AIR NEW ZEALAND | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral | Credit Suisse |
| MTS - | METCASH | Upgrade to Accumulate from Lighten | Ord Minnett |
| TNE - | TECHNOLOGY ONE | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Macquarie |
AIZ AIR NEW ZEALAND LIMITED
Transportation & Logistics
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Overnight Price: $3.02
Credit Suisse rates AIZ as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -
Credit Suisse downgrades to Underperform from Neutral as oil prices have risen, coinciding with a strengthening of the US dollar against the New Zealand dollar.
Taking into account current hedging, the broker expects limited impact on FY18 earnings but the persistent increase in oil suggests negative revisions for FY19.
Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to NZ$2.98 from NZ$3.00.
Current Price is $3.02. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.34 cents and EPS of 32.64 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.34 cents and EPS of 27.83 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.7, implying annual growth of -3.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $29.77
Macquarie rates ALL as Outperform (1) -
In an initial assessment of today's 1HFY18 report, Macquarie notes net profit has beaten its own expectation by no less than 6%. In North America, Class III participation continues to beat expectations, the analysts observe.
In addition, while the result for Digital beat expectations, Macquarie analysts do point out bookings in 1H18 look light for Plarium (+3%) while Big Fish delivered +12%.
Target price is $27.15 Current Price is $29.77 Difference: minus $2.62 (current price is over target).
If ALL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $29.65, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 45.50 cents and EPS of 112.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 107.4, implying annual growth of 38.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.7. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 67.50 cents and EPS of 135.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 131.4, implying annual growth of 22.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $130.07
Credit Suisse rates BKL as Neutral (3) -
Blackmores has provided an optimistic update on its new China marketing campaign. The company has disclosed that on T-malt platforms sales are up 28% since the campaign began in April. The marketing campaign will run through June.
Credit Suisse suggests that this implies sales momentum in the fourth quarter has lifted from "high single digit" growth in China in the third quarter.
Neutral rating and $130 target retained.
Target price is $130.00 Current Price is $130.07 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If BKL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $130.00, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 330.00 cents and EPS of 414.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 410.7, implying annual growth of 19.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 318.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.7. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 370.00 cents and EPS of 467.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 473.7, implying annual growth of 15.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 369.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $9.14
Credit Suisse rates BXB as Outperform (1) -
The company is facing high input cost inflation via transport, lumber and labour. Credit Suisse expects competitors will be hit far more severely because of their lower scale and weaker margins. This is likely to reduce competition in the US.
These cyclical headwinds provide an attractive entry point for a high-quality company, in the broker's opinion. Outperform rating is reiterated. Target is lowered to $10.25 from $10.40.
Target price is $10.25 Current Price is $9.14 Difference: $1.11
If BXB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.35, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 37.40 cents and EPS of 52.84 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 39.33 cents and EPS of 54.28 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.0, implying annual growth of 2.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $69.67
Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -
Post the CBA announcing the sale of its 37.5% equity interest in BoComm Life for Rmb3.2bn or $668m, Morgan Stanley analysts comment this transaction won't genuinely provide relief for the bank's tight capital position. Underweight. Price target $70.
Target price is $70.00 Current Price is $69.67 Difference: $0.33
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $75.38, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 430.00 cents and EPS of 525.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 544.9, implying annual growth of -5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 431.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 430.00 cents and EPS of 544.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 565.6, implying annual growth of 3.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 440.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates CBA as Hold (3) -
The bank will sell its 37.5% equity interest in BoComm Life Insurance to Mitsui Sumitomo for $668m. In addition to this transaction, Ord Minnett corrects the timing in its modelling of the capital impact on CBA from the adoption of the AASB9 financial standard.
Cash earnings forecasts increase by 4% for FY19 while FY20 estimates fall by -0.4%. Hold rating and $76 target maintained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $76.00 Current Price is $69.67 Difference: $6.33
If CBA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $75.38, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 529.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 544.9, implying annual growth of -5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 431.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 582.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 565.6, implying annual growth of 3.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 440.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $194.16
UBS rates COH as Sell (5) -
The broker has changed analysts for Cochlear, remodelled valuation drivers and switched to a discounted cash flow methodolgy. The result is a target price increase to $170 from $150.
This is still short of the traded price, and the broker sees downside risk given the company is increasing opex to drive further market penetration. The broker still expects strong growth, but retains Sell with the stock priced to perfection.
Target price is $170.00 Current Price is $194.16 Difference: minus $24.16 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $167.70, suggesting downside of -13.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 316.00 cents and EPS of 437.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 433.0, implying annual growth of 11.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 307.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 334.00 cents and EPS of 481.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 494.3, implying annual growth of 14.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 345.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MRG MURRAY RIVER ORGANICS GROUP LIMITED
Agriculture
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Overnight Price: $0.29
Morgans - Cessation of coverage
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.90 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.20 cents. |
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MTR MANTRA GROUP LIMITED
Travel, Leisure & Tourism
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Overnight Price: $3.95
Morgans - Cessation of coverage
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.7, implying annual growth of 9.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.7. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.3, implying annual growth of 9.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.63
Ord Minnett rates MTS as Upgrade to Accumulate from Lighten (2) -
Ord Minnett reviews the investment thesis and recognises it may have been too hasty in downgrading Metcash. Estimates for EPS are raised by 2.7% for FY19 and 7.4% for FY20 because of forecasts for higher sales and margin in food & grocery and stronger hardware earnings.
The broker is more confident that food deflation is easing while the independent retailer network appears in better shape. Rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Lighten. Target rises to $3.75 from $2.65.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.63 Difference: $0.12
If MTS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.28, suggesting downside of -9.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in April.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.0, implying annual growth of 22.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.3, implying annual growth of 5.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $83.90
Macquarie rates RIO as Outperform (1) -
The company has noted reports suggesting a potential sale of Grasberg for US$3.5bn. The company stated that discussions with Indonesia Asahan Aluminium are ongoing and no agreement has been reached as yet.
Macquarie considers such a price would be a positive outcome and expects the earnings contribution from Grasberg in the near term will be modest.
Outperform rating retained. Target rises to $94 from $93.
Target price is $94.00 Current Price is $83.90 Difference: $10.1
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $85.81, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 435.85 cents and EPS of 736.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 724.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 410.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 371.37 cents and EPS of 617.67 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 631.3, implying annual growth of -12.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 375.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates SCG as Buy (1) -
The prospects for the A-REIT sector have improved, the broker suggests, given the potential for significant capital returns, downside risk in other yield sectors (financials), and an expectation the Australian ten-year bond yield will tread water.
The broker also believes evidence suggests that despite the gloom around local retail, strong employment, tax cuts and rising population will support in-store specialty retail sales growth. Buy retained. Target rises to $4.58 from $4.57.
Target price is $4.58 Current Price is $4.22 Difference: $0.36
If SCG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.49, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.6, implying annual growth of 925.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.2, implying annual growth of 6.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.21
Macquarie rates SEH as Outperform (1) -
The company has gained approval for its development plan covering around 20% of the Linxing tenements. Macquarie de-risks the project by an additional 10% and notes the focus is now on the Sanjiaobei development plan.
Outperform and target raised to $0.30 from $0.25.
Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.09
If SEH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.20 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $16.18
UBS rates SGM as Sell (5) -
Momentum is continuing in the global ferrous scrap market, the broker notes, with Sims' March Q exports from US ports rising 22% y/y. The broker believes momentum can continue and that the share price has risen as a result.
The problem lies with non-ferrous scrap, now China has restricted recyclable imports to only the highest quality. The broker sees a glut building in the US as exporters seek new buyers. China previously accounted for 75% of all US copper scrap exports.
The broker sees the net risk to the downside. Sell and $13.70 target retained.
Target price is $13.70 Current Price is $16.18 Difference: minus $2.48 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $16.28, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 99.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.8, implying annual growth of -5.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 102.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.3, implying annual growth of 14.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.06
Morgans rates SIL as Initiation of coverage with Add (1) -
A significant point of difference to other listed operators in dental practice, Smiles Inclusive has established a 60/40 joint venture with the vending practice owners in order to retain commercial interest and profitability.
Morgans believes the portfolio of acquired dental practices has considerable scope. The broker initiates coverage with an Add rating and $1.40 target. The company owns and operates fully serviced treatment rooms in all mainland states and the ACT.
Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.06 Difference: $0.34
If SIL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SRX SIRTEX MEDICAL LIMITED
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences
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Overnight Price: $29.15
Morgans rates SRX as Hold (3) -
CDH has formalised its takeover offer at $33.60 via a scheme of arrangement. Varian is not countering the bid, believing its offer is superior as it has all regulatory approvals and unanimous board approval. Morgans notes the regulatory uncertainty is high regarding the CDH bid.
Given the current offers and a soft trading update, Morgans lowers FY18-20 estimates. Management has cited uncertainty and distraction since the Varian deal was announced and now expects FY18 operating earnings at the lower end of the $75-85m guidance range.
Morgans maintains a Hold rating and $28 target.
Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $29.15 Difference: minus $1.15 (current price is over target).
If SRX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $28.00, suggesting downside of -3.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 104.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 116.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 110.3, implying annual growth of 10.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates STO as Neutral (3) -
The company has rejected the Harbour Energy takeover bid. Macquarie considers the rejection a bold move as Santos must now move from its cost-cutting phase to growing and developing.
Macquarie believes an offer between $6.80-7.20 could be justified and disagrees that returns since the end of March are a fair metric. While the company's comments around the potential for earlier dividends should help, the broker asserts it will need to convince investors of its strategy, or oil prices will need to keep rising.
Neutral rating maintained. Target is lowered to $5.85 from $6.30.
Target price is $5.85 Current Price is $5.89 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.66, suggesting downside of -4.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.48 cents and EPS of 28.63 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.51 cents and EPS of 21.41 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.5, implying annual growth of 3.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.37
Credit Suisse rates SYR as Outperform (1) -
The company has signed a US$1.23m purchase agreement for a 25 acre industrial site at Vidalia in Louisiana for its battery anode material plant. This site, unlike the initial Port Manchac site which was to be leased, will be freehold.
The change adds a six-month delay to the original schedule but assists with cash flow management, Credit Suisse observes. Outperform rating and $6.60 target maintained.
Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $3.37 Difference: $3.23
If SYR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 96% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.93, suggesting upside of 46.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.47 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 1123.3. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 35.16 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.4, implying annual growth of 6366.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.47
Credit Suisse rates TAH as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse notes a small risk that the introduction of a point of consumption tax in NSW could result in an increased tax liability for Tabcorp. The broker expects the company will negotiate adjustments to other aspects of race funding to ensure a neutral outcome.
The broker reiterates a view that, generally, the introduction of a POCT is a positive development for the company because it increases costs for its competitors. Should the POCT be set at 8% of revenue, this will be higher than the prevailing average wagering state tax rate of 5.8% that Tabcorp is slated to pay in FY20.
Credit Suisse maintains an Outperform rating and $5.20 target.
Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.47 Difference: $0.73
If TAH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.21, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 16.27 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 22.14 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.1, implying annual growth of 31.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.28
Macquarie rates TNE as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
FY18 guidance is below Macquarie's expectation and implies flat growth year-on-year. The broker notes issues in the consulting division have carried through into FY18 and the UK business is taking longer to reach a profitable scale.
The broker believes a turnaround in consulting, acceleration of the SaaS platform and clarity around upcoming accounting changes are needed for the stock to re-rate. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target is $4.77.
Target price is $4.77 Current Price is $4.28 Difference: $0.49
If TNE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.80, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.90 cents and EPS of 15.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.8, implying annual growth of 11.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.20 cents and EPS of 17.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.9, implying annual growth of 13.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates TNE as Neutral (3) -
FY18 is a transitional year for the company, the broker notes. The first half saw acceleration in cloud profitability overshadowed by weakness in consulting. Strong execution in the second half will be required to reach (lowered) FY earnings guidance.
The broker believes it is possible, given a historical skew in excess of 80%. But the broker retains Neutral, waiting to see whether the company can pull it off. Target falls to $4.80 from $5.30.
Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.28 Difference: $0.52
If TNE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.80, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.8, implying annual growth of 11.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.9, implying annual growth of 13.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $33.69
Citi rates WPL as Sell (5) -
Citi analysts had earlier expressed their view that shares in Woodside Petroleum are priced for perfection. That view hasn't changed post the company's Investor Briefing Day. Sell rating and $28.68 price target remain unchanged.
Citi laments its key concerns were not addressed by company management; Pluto repricing risk and Corpus Christi trading volumes. Citi also remains sceptical about the level and outlook for oil prices.
Even at current spot oil/FX Citi analysts state their valuation for Woodside shares only increases to $35.21, i.e. close to where the shares are trading presently. Short term estimates have been pared back.
Target price is $28.68 Current Price is $33.69 Difference: minus $5.01 (current price is over target).
If WPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $32.37, suggesting downside of -3.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 159.90 cents and EPS of 199.36 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 217.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 169.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 110.90 cents and EPS of 139.39 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 216.1, implying annual growth of -0.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 168.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates WPL as Neutral (3) -
The company has focused on organic growth options in the Asian LNG market at its investor presentation. Capital intensity has been reduced for Scarborough but Macquarie suspects gas buyers are still unwilling to commit.
The company acknowledges Scarborough may go to a final investment decision with less than 50% of the project contracted, while typically at least 70% is contracted. This will shift much of the risk back to Woodside, the broker notes. Macquarie retains a Neutral rating and $31.90 target.
Target price is $31.90 Current Price is $33.69 Difference: minus $1.79 (current price is over target).
If WPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $32.37, suggesting downside of -3.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 207.61 cents and EPS of 261.51 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 217.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 169.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 158.61 cents and EPS of 199.87 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 216.1, implying annual growth of -0.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 168.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates WPL as Overweight (1) -
Woodside organised its annual investor day and Morgan Stanley analysts attended, and saw their growth thesis confirmed. Overweight rating retained, as well as the $36 price target.
Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $33.69 Difference: $2.31
If WPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $32.37, suggesting downside of -3.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 169.29 cents and EPS of 216.94 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 217.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 169.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 166.06 cents and EPS of 207.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 216.1, implying annual growth of -0.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 168.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates WPL as Hold (3) -
The company has provided an update on medium-term growth prospects. Woodside is timing the growth of the Scarborough and Browse expansions to coincide with the expected tightening in LNG markets in the early 2020s. Increased capacity has positive implications for value but Ord Minnett notes the stock is trading close to valuation.
Management has confirmed the February equity raising has provided funding for Scarborough but not Browse or any opportunistic bolt-on acquisitions. Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating and raises the target to $34.60 from $33.00.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $34.60 Current Price is $33.69 Difference: $0.91
If WPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $32.37, suggesting downside of -3.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 202.45 cents and EPS of 254.03 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 217.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 169.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 241.14 cents and EPS of 303.03 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 216.1, implying annual growth of -0.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 168.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates WPL as Buy (1) -
The highlights of Woodside's investor briefing were first gas at Scarborough now expected in 2023, two years earlier than originally planned, and a much bigger new train for Pluto, due in 2024. The broker believes the Scarborough expansion will beat PNG LNG to market.
The company is bullish on LNG and has deliberately left 20% of 2019 volumes uncontracted, the broker notes, given all the new supply due to come on shortly across the country may well experience delays, and LNG demand growth may accelerate. Buy retained, target rises to $37.50 from $34.70.
Target price is $37.50 Current Price is $33.69 Difference: $3.81
If WPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $32.37, suggesting downside of -3.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 116.05 cents and EPS of 144.42 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 217.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 169.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 131.53 cents and EPS of 163.77 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 216.1, implying annual growth of -0.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 168.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
| AIZ | AIR NEW ZEALAND | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $3.02 |
| ALL | ARISTOCRAT LEISURE | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $29.77 |
| BKL | BLACKMORES | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $130.07 |
| BXB | BRAMBLES | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $9.14 |
| CBA | COMMBANK | Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $69.67 |
| Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $69.67 | ||
| COH | COCHLEAR | Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $194.16 |
| MRG | MURRAY RIVER ORGANICS | Cessation of coverage - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.29 |
| MTR | MANTRA GROUP | Cessation of coverage - Morgans | Overnight Price $3.95 |
| MTS | METCASH | Upgrade to Accumulate from Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.63 |
| RIO | RIO TINTO | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $83.90 |
| SCG | SCENTRE GROUP | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $4.22 |
| SEH | SINO GAS & ENERGY | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.21 |
| SGM | SIMS METAL MANAGEMENT | Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $16.18 |
| SIL | SMILES INCLUSIVE | Initiation of coverage with Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.06 |
| SRX | SIRTEX MEDICAL | Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $29.15 |
| STO | SANTOS | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $5.89 |
| SYR | SYRAH RESOURCES | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $3.37 |
| TAH | TABCORP HOLDINGS | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $4.47 |
| TNE | TECHNOLOGY ONE | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.28 |
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $4.28 | ||
| WPL | WOODSIDE PETROLEUM | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $33.69 |
| Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $33.69 | ||
| Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $33.69 | ||
| Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $33.69 | ||
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $33.69 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 10 |
| 2. Accumulate | 1 |
| 3. Hold | 8 |
| 5. Sell | 5 |
Thursday 24 May 2018
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