Australian Broker Call
January 27, 2017
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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Last Updated: 01:41 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| AIZ - | AIR NEW ZEALAND | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Macquarie |
| EPW - | ERM POWER | Downgrade to Reduce from Hold | Morgans |
| NST - | NORTHERN STAR | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Macquarie |
| WOW - | WOOLWORTHS | Upgrade to Accumulate from Lighten | Ord Minnett |
Deutsche Bank rates AIZ as Hold (3) -
The analysts had warned earlier, but Air New Zealand continues to be impact by heightened competition and higher fuel prices. Deutsche Bank analysts suggest the airline is at risk of having to issue a profit warning.
Post the market update, the analysts have positioned themselves near the bottom of guidance range. Until these headwinds abate, there's a slim chance for a substantial re-rate in the analysts' view. Hold. Target drops to NZ$2.09 from NZ$2.17.
Current Price is $2.12. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 18.76 cents and EPS of 26.27 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 12.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 19.70 cents and EPS of 25.33 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.1, implying annual growth of -9.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.9. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates AIZ as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
After a share price rally for Air NZ, Macquarie is downgrading to Neutral, suggesting the stock is now fair value. Dec Q stats showed yields continued to fall due to competition, but that the rate of those falls is now slowing.
Air NZ's numbers should start to improve ahead as a year passes since competition entry, Macquarie suggests. Yield momentum will need to improve but the broker finds competition rationalisation encouraging. Target falls to NZ$2.18 from NZ$2.25.
Current Price is $2.12. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 18.76 cents and EPS of 28.71 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 12.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.76 cents and EPS of 24.95 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.1, implying annual growth of -9.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.9. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates AWC as Underweight (5) -
Morgan Stanley expected the good margins witnessed in the fourth quarter, given the moves in commodity prices.
The stronger alumina price was a feature of the fourth quarter and, as price realisation lags, there is a trailing benefit, although the broker is mindful the spot price has begun to ease from its peak.
The debate for the broker now turns to the influence of policy decisions in China and Indonesia. As the equity has moved ahead of its increased price target, Morgan Stanley awaits the opportunities that volatility might bring.
Target is raised to $1.75 from $1.55. Underweight rating and Attractive industry view retained.
Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $2.04 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.72, suggesting downside of -12.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 13.39 cents and EPS of 1.34 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.4. |
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 20.08 cents and EPS of 5.36 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.5, implying annual growth of 125.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates AWC as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett considers Alcoa's update a small positive on declining refinery costs but the main reason to remain bullish is the expectation for alumina production cuts in China. On this basis, Accumulate rating retained. Price target moves to $2.20 from $1.80.
Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.04 Difference: $0.16
If AWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.72, suggesting downside of -12.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 8.03 cents and EPS of 1.34 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.4. |
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 21.42 cents and EPS of 20.08 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.5, implying annual growth of 125.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates AWC as Sell (5) -
The company reported receipts from AWAC of US$232.8m for 2016, ahead of UBS estimates. However, the company contributed US $48m to AWAC in the fourth quarter, which brings the net receipts into line with the broker's estimates.
UBS expects a final dividend of US3.1c per share.The broker maintains a Sell rating, but notes recent news in China regarding possible closures of smelters, in order to tackle pollution, may lead to a lift in alumina/aluminium prices. Price target lifts to $1.60 from $1.50.
Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $2.04 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.72, suggesting downside of -12.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
UBS forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 8.03 cents and EPS of 4.02 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.4. |
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.71 cents and EPS of 10.71 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.5, implying annual growth of 125.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates BHP as Neutral (3) -
The December quarter performance didn't quite live up to expectations, in particular coal and iron ore volumes were weaker than expected. But Citi analysts have also updated for latest commodity prices, and the latter compensates for the former.
Price target gains $1 to $28.50. Neutral rating retained. Today's update also includes updated AUD forecasts, but Citi analysts report their macro desk has only made some marginal adjustments.
Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $27.89 Difference: $0.61
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $27.53, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 93.71 cents and EPS of 187.55 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 185.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 105.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 74.97 cents and EPS of 149.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 152.3, implying annual growth of -18.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 86.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates BHP as Neutral (3) -
December quarter production fell short in copper, oil and thermal coal versus Credit Suisse forecasts. Iron ore was stronger than expected. The broker updates its model for the results but the net impact is minimal.
Neutral rating and $26.50 target retained..
Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $27.89 Difference: minus $1.39 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $27.53, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 129.33 cents and EPS of 206.16 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 185.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 105.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 122.92 cents and EPS of 186.08 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 152.3, implying annual growth of -18.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 86.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates BHP as Hold (3) -
BHP's December quarter performance was broadly flat, observe Deutsche Bank analysts, but copper, petroleum and met coal all fell short of expectations. The analysts have positioned themselves below company guidance on potential for Escondida to disappoint.
Price target remains $24, notwithstanding a small increase to Net Present Value (to $24.09). Hold rating retained.
Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $27.89 Difference: minus $3.89 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $27.53, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 89.69 cents and EPS of 179.38 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 185.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 105.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 61.58 cents and EPS of 124.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 152.3, implying annual growth of -18.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 86.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -
BHP's Dec Q production performance was soft, the broker suggests, featuring misses in coal and copper. Copper guidance has been downgraded but guidance for other commodities is maintained. There is a risk of missing targets, the broker suggests, if the strike in Chile or a big wet in the Pilbara cause reductions.
BHP nevertheless continues to enjoy strong commodity prices which, were the broker to input spot prices, would result in a doubling of the broker's current earnings forecasts. Outperform and $31 target retained.
Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $27.89 Difference: $3.11
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $27.53, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 95.05 cents and EPS of 175.37 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 185.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 105.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 65.60 cents and EPS of 130.52 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 152.3, implying annual growth of -18.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 86.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley makes modest changes to its estimates after the December quarter production result, mainly because of lower realised revenue per tonne in coal. Production guidance is largely unchanged.
In general, copper production remains an issue, as Olympic Dam has now delivered four consecutive quarters of declining production. While most factors are outside the company's control the broker does not believe the situation bodes well for the expansion program.
Overweight rating, Attractive sector view and $30 target retained.
Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $27.89 Difference: $2.11
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $27.53, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 117.81 cents and EPS of 194.11 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 185.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 105.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 88.72 cents and EPS of 157.28 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 152.3, implying annual growth of -18.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 86.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates BHP as Hold (3) -
The December quarter production performance suggests to Morgans the second half will be strong across key divisions.
FY17 guidance is unchanged, with the exception of a -2% reduction to copper production after the South Australian power outage interrupted production at Olympic Dam.
With business confidence in the sector yet to recover, the broker expects the appeal of increased dividends/buy-backs is high for companies that have experienced sudden surges in cash flow. Target is raised to $27.24 from $25.82.
Hold retained. The main risk to the broker's call is commodity price volatility.
Target price is $27.24 Current Price is $27.89 Difference: minus $0.65 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $27.53, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 97.72 cents and EPS of 160.64 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 185.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 105.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 80.32 cents and EPS of 160.64 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 152.3, implying annual growth of -18.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 86.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates BHP as Hold (3) -
Ord Minnett found the December quarter production report "solid". The broker remains positive on miners in general ahead of the upcoming reporting season, but prefers Rio Tinto ((RIO)) and Fortescue Metals ((FMG)) on cheaper valuations. Price target moves to $25 from $23. Hold rating retained.
Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $27.89 Difference: minus $2.89 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $27.53, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 124.50 cents and EPS of 186.08 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 185.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 105.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 85.68 cents and EPS of 123.16 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 152.3, implying annual growth of -18.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 86.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -
The company has retained its FY17 production guidance, with the exception of copper, for which guidance is lowered -2% because of a reduction in production at Olympic Dam after the South Australian electricity outage.
UBS retains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $28 from $27.
Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $27.89 Difference: $0.11
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $27.53, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 103.08 cents and EPS of 208.84 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 185.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 105.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 117.81 cents and EPS of 196.79 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 152.3, implying annual growth of -18.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 86.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates COH as Neutral (3) -
Citi analysts updated their modeling to reflect new Citi FX forecasts and mark to market of the company's hedge book. The end result is for minor adjustments only.
Including rolling forward of the valuation model, the price target lifts to $133.30, up from $129.78. Citi retains its Neutral rating.
Target price is $133.30 Current Price is $127.39 Difference: $5.91
If COH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $122.59, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 272.00 cents and EPS of 388.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 383.5, implying annual growth of 16.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 270.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 320.00 cents and EPS of 456.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 437.2, implying annual growth of 14.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 308.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates EPW as Downgrade to Reduce from Hold (5) -
The company has changed strategy regarding Large-scale Generation Certificates (LGC) and this means, bottom line, it'll become a tax payer, accumulating franking credits that can later on be attached to dividends paid.
Morgans analysts point out this will also reduce cash flows in the medium term. This implies there is downside risk to the cash dividend, and that means downside risk for the share price, Morgans finds. Downgrade to Reduce from Hold. Target price remains 99c.
Note: Morgans has cut DPS forecasts to 8c from 12c previously (unchanged on gross basis given the addition of franking credits).
Target price is $0.99 Current Price is $1.32 Difference: minus $0.325 (current price is over target).
If EPW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.15, suggesting downside of -10.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates EVN as Buy (1) -
Citi analysts saw a "strong" December quarter performance, though they made no changes to either the $2.60 price target or the Buy recommendation. On their projections, this company can be in a net cash position from H1 FY19 onwards.
The analysts highlight Evolution Mining has now become one of the lowest cost gold producers listed on the ASX. This was helped by the first contribution from the Ernest Henry mine, operated by Glencore.
Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: $0.33
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.50, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 19.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.0, implying annual growth of 36.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates EVN as Outperform (1) -
December quarter production was a record and FY17 guidance is unchanged for 800-860,000 ounces at cash costs of $900-960/oz. All mines are cash flow positive, excluding Edna May's -$900,000.
An Outperform rating is retained and the target is unchanged at $2.30.
Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: $0.03
If EVN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.50, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 3.73 cents and EPS of 17.76 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.37 cents and EPS of 22.89 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.0, implying annual growth of 36.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates EVN as Buy (1) -
Deutsche Bank liked the December quarter production update, in particular the -12% fall in costs. The analysts suggest further improvement should be forthcoming in the current quarter.
The analysts also point out the company's 800-860koz production rate is second to only Newcrest ((NCM)) in Australia, with the broker favouring Evolution's metrics such as free cash flow yield. Price target $2.40. Buy.
Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: $0.13
If EVN meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.50, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.0, implying annual growth of 36.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates EVN as Outperform (1) -
Evolution beat the broker's estimates on production and costs in the Dec Q, with the Ernest Henry mine making its first contribution. Exploration results continue to look promising.
The theme of 2016 should continue into 2017, the broker suggests, being operational delivery, accelerated debt repayment and growth options. Target rises to $2.60 from $2.10. Outperform retained.
Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: $0.33
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.50, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 11.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 23.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.0, implying annual growth of 36.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Overweight (1) -
Production in the December quarter was ahead of Morgan Stanley's estimates, with several mines contributing. FY17 guidance is unchanged.
While gold prices have been volatile, Australian dollar prices and cash flow are robust. The stock remains the top relative exposure for the broker given its cash flow projections over the next three years. Overweight rating retained. Target is reduced to $2.70 from $2.90. Sector view: Attractive.
Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: $0.43
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.50, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.0, implying annual growth of 36.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates HGG as Outperform (1) -
Given the proposed merger with Janus, Credit Suisse reviews that business's fourth-quarter result. Earnings per share was down -24% quarter on quarter, affected by lower performance fees, investment income losses and a higher tax rate.
While the result was softer than expected, some of the drivers were one-offs and the broker notes the revival in fund flows indicates early signs of attrition are minimal.
As the US market is witnessing a rotation into domestic equities, the acquisition will provide Henderson with product, which otherwise would have meant it had a relatively weak offering. Outperform rating and $4.90 target retained.
Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $3.71 Difference: $1.19
If HGG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.47, suggesting upside of 19.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 18.76 cents and EPS of 26.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 20.90 cents and EPS of 33.95 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.0, implying annual growth of 16.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
This company reports in GBP. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates HVN as Buy (1) -
Harvey Norman has indicated property revaluation will add in excess of $70m to the consolidated income statement. Deutsche Bank notes the announcement, but does not make any amendments.
The analysts expect strong operating results to be reported in February driven by solid sales and margin expansion. Buy. Target $6.
Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $4.89 Difference: $1.11
If HVN meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.19, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.8, implying annual growth of 7.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.5, implying annual growth of 5.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates IGO as Neutral (3) -
Citi has kept $4.50 price target and Neutral rating intact post the release of December quarter production numbers. The analysts seem to suggest Independence is poised to beat its own guidance this year.
In addition, the Nova project is ahead of schedule and coming in on budget with full production rate expected by mid 2017, point out the analysts. Weak performance at Jaguar has reduced forecasts.
Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.02 Difference: $0.48
If IGO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.16, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 33.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.5, implying annual growth of 264.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates IGO as Neutral (3) -
The company's Tropicana gold mine delivered a better-than-expected result, with both increases in milled tonnage and a higher grade. UBS believes the key to the mine this year will be the Long Island update, due mid year.
Exploration at Nova features this year. UBS believes that drilling over time has potential to expand production and mine life and believes the share price is providing little value for the potential.
Neutral rating retained. Target rises to $4.26 from $4.19.
Target price is $4.26 Current Price is $4.02 Difference: $0.24
If IGO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.16, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 49.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.5, implying annual growth of 264.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates MGX as Neutral (3) -
The company made opportunistic low-grade sales during the December quarter and realised an average price of US$49/dmt F.O.B. for its fines product, below UBS estimates as a result.
Management remains in the advanced stages of investigating a potential re-start of Koolan Island, which may come as soon as the current quarter. Neutral rating and $0.36 target retained.
Target price is $0.36 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: minus $0.025 (current price is over target).
If MGX meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.39, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.1, implying annual growth of -86.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates MPL as Neutral (3) -
Citi analysts expect no surprises at the upcoming H1 release. Pre-release mark to market update has added some extra to FY17 EPS estimate. Neutral.
Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: $0
If MPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 11.70 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of -1.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.70 cents and EPS of 15.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates NHF as Neutral (3) -
Having conducted a mark-to-market, Citi analysts retain their Neutral rating as well as the $4.70 price target on minor adjustments to forecasts.
Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.58 Difference: $0.12
If NHF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.58, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 16.50 cents and EPS of 25.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.1, implying annual growth of 13.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 26.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.4, implying annual growth of 5.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates NST as Buy (1) -
Citi seems happy with the December quarter performance. Whereas company management has stuck with previous guidance, the analysts think they will beat it. Buy rating maintained. Price target $4.70.
Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $3.95 Difference: $0.75
If NST meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 34.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.6, implying annual growth of 41.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 40.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.7, implying annual growth of 39.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates NST as Outperform (1) -
Guidance remains unchanged despite soft first half production, Credit Suisse observes.
The broker also notes flexibility and planning by the company are improving, although short-term production outcomes are being influenced by opportunistic mining of material identified on the run during development.
Outperform rating and $4.10 target retained.
Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.95 Difference: $0.15
If NST meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.23 cents and EPS of 34.09 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.6, implying annual growth of 41.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 15.18 cents and EPS of 50.61 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.7, implying annual growth of 39.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates NST as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
Northern Star's net production and costs were largely in line with Macquarie's forecasts for the Dec Q. Increased production at Jundee foreshadows expectation of a similar increase at the Kalgoorlie operation as new mines begin to contribute.
But the share price has gained 30% since December against a 5% rise for the ASX100, reaching the broker's target price of $3.70. Hence Macquarie downgrades to Neutral.
Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.95 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 24.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.6, implying annual growth of 41.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 50.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.7, implying annual growth of 39.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates QUB as Buy (1) -
Qube has reached financial close on the agreement to develop and operate the Moorebank Intermodal Terminal Precinct and Ord Minnett comments this will be the largest integrated intermodal logistics facility in Sydney, and an important milestone for the company.
The focus now shifts to potential tenants and Ord Minnett analysts state their ideal scenario is for Qube to sign up importers with national and/or regional distribution centres. Think Woolworths, Coles, Aldi, Metcash, Kmart, and the like, maybe even Amazon, the analysts add.
Buy rating and $2.85 price target retained. No changes made to forecasts.
Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.34 Difference: $0.51
If QUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.64, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.6, implying annual growth of 17.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.4, implying annual growth of 8.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates RIO as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse considers the disposal of Coal & Allied is opportunistic and in keeping with the company's intention to buy and sell assets through the cycle. The proceeds should eliminate most of the net debt.
The broker reiterates an Outperform rating, based on lower iron ore surpluses, undemanding multiples and the potential for higher dividends as Rio Tinto fast approaches an excess capital position. Target is $70.
Target price is $70.00 Current Price is $67.23 Difference: $2.77
If RIO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $68.02, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 200.80 cents and EPS of 389.56 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 361.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 186.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8. |
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 609.10 cents and EPS of 580.99 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 494.8, implying annual growth of 36.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 296.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates RIO as Buy (1) -
The company will sell Coal & Allied for US$2.45bn, subject to conditions and regulatory approvals. UBS expects net gearing to fall to 19%, below the low end of the company's 20-30% target range.
The broker also expects the company to retain the cash in the near term, given the uncertain outlook, and step up returns to shareholders in 2018. Buy rating retained. Target is $71.
Target price is $71.00 Current Price is $67.23 Difference: $3.77
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $68.02, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
UBS forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 187.42 cents and EPS of 374.83 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 361.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 186.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8. |
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 278.45 cents and EPS of 552.88 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 494.8, implying annual growth of 36.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 296.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates RSG as Buy (1) -
Citi analysts spotted higher production volumes and lower costs, plus management continues to target +450kozpa by 2020. The title above today's report says it all: as good as gold in the bank.
Target price gains 6c to $1.99. Buy rating retained. The analysts note the company is building its own store of gold, in line with the earlier decision to pay dividends in bullion.
Target price is $1.99 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: $0.54
If RSG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 32.40 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 19.20 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates SXY as Neutral (3) -
December production proved in-line but the company sold more than anticipated by reducing its inventory. The analysts point out the company is debt free, hedged in FY17, and has sufficient cash flows to execute near-term gas growth.
Alas, they are also of the view investors have largely priced in all the positives. Hence, Neutral rating retained. Target price gains 2c to 30c.
Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.015
If SXY meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.29, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -12.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 1.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates SXY as Outperform (1) -
December quarter production was effectively flat quarter on quarter and production guidance is unchanged. Credit Suisse expects Vanessa will be unlikely to contribute in the next six months and therefore considers the first half to be tracking at the bottom edge of guidance.
The broker looks forward to further news during the current half on how the Western Surat is progressing, which is considered to be the main value driver for the stock. The broker maintains an Outperform rating and 30c target.
Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.015
If SXY meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.29, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 76.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -12.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 103.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 1.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates SXY as Hold (3) -
December quarter production was in-line but revenues missed expectations, report analysts at Deutsche Bank. Senex continues to target the drilling of at least six wells in the Cooper Basin in FY17, they note. Hold rating and 25c price target retained on minor adjustments to estimates.
Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: minus $0.035 (current price is over target).
If SXY meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.29, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -12.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 1.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates WOW as Upgrade to Accumulate from Lighten (2) -
Ord Minnett has double upgraded, to Accumulate from Lighten, on greater confidence an operational turnaround is occurring. A successful sale of the petrol operations further adds to the positive sentiment.
The analysts have come to the view recent operational improvement can be sustained while balance sheet pressure is easing due to a better performance from Food and the petrol divestment. Price target jumps to $28 from $22. Estimates have been raised.
Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $24.65 Difference: $3.35
If WOW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $23.13, suggesting downside of -8.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 86.00 cents and EPS of 116.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 77.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 96.00 cents and EPS of 134.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 120.7, implying annual growth of 7.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 82.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
| AIZ - | AIR NEW ZEALAND | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $2.12 |
| Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.12 | ||
| AWC - | ALUMINA | Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.04 |
| Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.04 | ||
| Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $2.04 | ||
| BHP - | BHP BILLITON | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $27.89 |
| Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $27.89 | ||
| Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $27.89 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $27.89 | ||
| Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $27.89 | ||
| Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $27.89 | ||
| Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $27.89 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $27.89 | ||
| COH - | COCHLEAR | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $127.39 |
| EPW - | ERM POWER | Downgrade to Reduce from Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.32 |
| EVN - | EVOLUTION MINING | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $2.27 |
| Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.27 | ||
| Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $2.27 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.27 | ||
| Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.27 | ||
| HGG - | HENDERSON GROUP | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $3.71 |
| HVN - | HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $4.89 |
| IGO - | INDEPENDENCE GROUP | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $4.02 |
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $4.02 | ||
| MGX - | MOUNT GIBSON IRON | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $0.39 |
| MPL - | MEDIBANK PRIVATE | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $2.70 |
| NHF - | NIB HOLDINGS | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $4.58 |
| NST - | NORTHERN STAR | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $3.95 |
| Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $3.95 | ||
| Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.95 | ||
| QUB - | QUBE HOLDINGS | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.34 |
| RIO - | RIO TINTO | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $67.23 |
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $67.23 | ||
| RSG - | RESOLUTE MINING | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $1.45 |
| SXY - | SENEX ENERGY | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $0.28 |
| Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $0.28 | ||
| Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $0.28 | ||
| WOW - | WOOLWORTHS | Upgrade to Accumulate from Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $24.65 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 16 |
| 2. Accumulate | 2 |
| 3. Hold | 17 |
| 5. Sell | 3 |
Friday 27 January 2017
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