Australian Broker Call
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March 11, 2022
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Overnight Price: $0.46
Ord Minnett rates AMI as Buy (1) -
What took you so long, Ord Minnett? Aurelia Metals reported interim financials on February 24, believe it or not, but Ord Minnett has taken until this morning to update thoughts and projections for its clientele.
Oddly enough, the broker found the released results "particularly pleasing" as an operationally strong performance translated into cash flows directly. On top comes the observation the project pipeline is progressing well.
The broker sees a favourable outlook with gold production weighed towards H2. Price target jumps 6% to $1. Buy rating reiterated.
Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.46 Difference: $0.54
If AMI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 117% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.30 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ANZ AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED
Banks
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Overnight Price: $25.77
Macquarie rates ANZ as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie notes consensus expectations around rising rates haven’t changed, and assuming a resolution in Ukraine and Europe can avoid stagflation, banks are expected to outperform the industrials.
The broker estimates FY22 margin benefits will be skewed to ANZ Bank and National Australia Bank ((NAB)) among the majors.
The Outperform rating and $29.50 target for ANZ Bank are maintained.
Target price is $29.50 Current Price is $25.77 Difference: $3.73
If ANZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $29.68, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 144.00 cents and EPS of 191.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 204.7, implying annual growth of -5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 143.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 145.00 cents and EPS of 207.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 228.8, implying annual growth of 11.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 156.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $9.60
Macquarie rates BEN as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie notes consensus expectations around rising rates haven’t changed, and assuming a resolution in Ukraine and Europe can avoid stagflation, banks are expected to outperform the industrials.
The broker estimates FY22 margin benefits will be skewed to ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) and National Australia Bank ((NAB)) among the majors.
However, the expected upside for Bendigo & Adelaide Bank is the largest for the sector, estimates Macquarie. The Outperform rating and $11 target are retained.
Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $9.60 Difference: $1.4
If BEN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.14, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 75.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 78.7, implying annual growth of -19.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 57.00 cents and EPS of 76.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.9, implying annual growth of -6.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.94
Macquarie rates BOQ as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie notes consensus expectations around rising rates haven’t changed, and assuming a resolution in Ukraine and Europe can avoid stagflation, banks are expected to outperform the industrials.
The broker estimates FY22 margin benefits will be skewed to ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) and National Australia Bank ((NAB)) among the majors.
However, the upside from higher rates is minor for Bank of Queensland, estimates Macquarie. While the Outperform rating is retained, the target falls to $9.25 from $9.50.
Target price is $9.25 Current Price is $7.94 Difference: $1.31
If BOQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.23, suggesting upside of 29.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in August.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 73.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.8, implying annual growth of 10.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 74.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.2, implying annual growth of 4.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $99.74
Macquarie rates CBA as Underperform (5) -
Macquarie notes consensus expectations around rising rates haven’t changed, and assuming a resolution in Ukraine and Europe can avoid stagflation, banks are expected to outperform the industrials.
The broker estimates FY22 margin benefits will be skewed to ANZ Bank ((ANZ))and National Australia Bank ((NAB)) among the majors.
Meanwhile, CommBank has the strongest deposit franchise and growth in low-cost deposits has materially outstripped peers, notes the analyst. While this has served past profitability, it's felt that if mix trends start to unwind the bank will face a longer-term headwind.
The Underperform rating and $90 target are retained.
Target price is $90.00 Current Price is $99.74 Difference: minus $9.74 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $91.56, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 385.00 cents and EPS of 514.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 519.1, implying annual growth of -9.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 369.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 400.00 cents and EPS of 517.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 535.8, implying annual growth of 3.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 403.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.12
Morgans rates CTP as Hold (3) -
Following 1H results for Central Petroleum, Morgans explains that after the sell down of the Amadeus operations to both deleverage and fund growth, the company is no longer an earnings story.
To remove the long-term discount for the stock, the analyst feels the company either requires a new discovery or needs to de-risk Range coal seam gas, the flagship growth project.
A roll forward of the broker's valuation model results in an increased target price of $0.12 from $0.11. Hold.
Target price is $0.12 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0
If CTP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.30 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FCL FINEOS CORPORATION HOLDINGS PLC
Cloud services
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Overnight Price: $2.40
Macquarie rates FCL as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie concludes that Fineos Corp is trading at a -47%-68% discount to the enterprise value/sales multiple for international competitors Guidewire and Duck Creek. This comes as Guidewire released 2Q results.
The broker makes no changes to earnings forecasts though lowers its target price to $3.59, from $3.87 after changes to the currency forecast and allowing for a lower comparative software sector multiple. Outperform.
Target price is $3.59 Current Price is $2.40 Difference: $1.19
If FCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.73 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.62 cents. |
This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $13.82
Citi rates MP1 as Buy (1) -
Citi doesn't expect a material revenue impact from key channel partner Digital Realty launching what is effectively a white-label of the
Megaport platform (a new SDN platform). There's thought to be a low likelihood of existing Megaport customers switching.
The broker retains its Buy rating and $20.20 target price.
Target price is $20.20 Current Price is $13.82 Difference: $6.38
If MP1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.49, suggesting upside of 39.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 25.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -25.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -7.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $29.99
Macquarie rates NAB as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie notes consensus expectations around rising rates haven’t changed, and assuming a resolution in Ukraine and Europe can avoid stagflation, banks are expected to outperform the industrials.
The broker estimates FY22 margin benefits will be skewed to National Australia Bank and ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) among the majors.
The Outperform rating and $32.50 target for National Australia Bank are maintained.
Target price is $32.50 Current Price is $29.99 Difference: $2.51
If NAB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $31.21, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 137.00 cents and EPS of 198.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 203.3, implying annual growth of 5.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 143.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 139.00 cents and EPS of 215.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 221.6, implying annual growth of 9.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 154.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.80
UBS rates ORG as Buy (1) -
Origin Energy has announced a $250m on-market buyback from April. UBS notes management hinted that further capital management could occur if commodity prices remain elevated.
The analyst reduces APLNG production forecasts by -3% over FY22-25. However, the impact upon EPS estimates is mitigated by the buyback and an additional forecast of $15m in yearly earnings by FY26, as the planned virtual power plant capacity expands.
The target rises to $6.75 from $6.65. Buy.
Target price is $6.75 Current Price is $5.80 Difference: $0.95
If ORG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.29, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 35.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7. |
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 32.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.4, implying annual growth of 35.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SGF SG FLEET GROUP LIMITED
Vehicle Leasing & Salary Packaging
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Overnight Price: $2.41
Morgan Stanley rates SGF as Overweight (1) -
On February 16, SG Fleet revealed a large beat versus Morgan Stanley's expectations for 1H results. The broker notes that after a surge in the share price initially, all gains have been lost due to broader market weakness.
The analyst suggests this presents a buying opportunity given fundamentals are unchanged/potentially strengthened. The Overweight raing and $3.40 target are retained. Industry View: In-line.
Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.41 Difference: $0.99
If SGF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 14.10 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $22.65
Macquarie rates WBC as Neutral (3) -
Macquarie notes consensus expectations around rising rates haven’t changed, and assuming a resolution in Ukraine and Europe can avoid stagflation, banks are expected to outperform the industrials.
The broker estimates FY22 margin benefits will be skewed to ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) and National Australia Bank ((NAB)) among the majors.
On a medium-term horizon, Westpac and ANZ Bank are more leveraged to higher bond yields. The broker retains its Neutral rating and $22.50 target for Westpac.
Target price is $22.50 Current Price is $22.65 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $24.93, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 122.00 cents and EPS of 157.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 154.5, implying annual growth of 3.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 123.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 125.00 cents and EPS of 174.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 186.7, implying annual growth of 20.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 134.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
| AMI | Aurelia Metals | $0.47 | Ord Minnett | 1.00 | 0.95 | 5.26% |
| BOQ | Bank of Queensland | $7.89 | Macquarie | 9.25 | 10.00 | -7.50% |
| CTP | Central Petroleum | $0.12 | Morgans | 0.12 | 0.11 | 9.09% |
| FCL | Fineos Corp | $2.51 | Macquarie | 3.59 | 3.95 | -9.11% |
| ORG | Origin Energy | $5.87 | Morgan Stanley | 6.06 | 6.05 | 0.17% |
| UBS | 6.75 | 6.65 | 1.50% |
Summaries
| AMI | Aurelia Metals | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $0.46 |
| ANZ | ANZ Bank | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $25.77 |
| BEN | Bendigo & Adelaide Bank | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $9.60 |
| BOQ | Bank of Queensland | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $7.94 |
| CBA | CommBank | Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $99.74 |
| CTP | Central Petroleum | Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.12 |
| FCL | Fineos Corp | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.40 |
| MP1 | Megaport | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $13.82 |
| NAB | National Australia Bank | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $29.99 |
| ORG | Origin Energy | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $5.80 |
| SGF | SG Fleet | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.41 |
| WBC | Westpac | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $22.65 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 9 |
| 3. Hold | 2 |
| 5. Sell | 1 |
Friday 11 March 2022
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