Australian Broker Call

Citi rates ABP as Buy (1) -

Management at Abacus Property is aiming to de-staple Storage King by the 3Q of 2023 (separate listing), which could unlock the existing material discount to net tangible assets (NTA), according to Citi.

The broker narrows its implied discount on the overall portfolio, reduces the FY23 funds from operations (FFO) forecast on higher interest rates and raises FY24 and FY25 (FFO) forecasts on an improving outlook for the Self-Storage sector growth.

The net impact of these changes is an increased target of $3.40, up from $3.20, while Citi retains its Buy rating.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.06 Difference: $0.34
If ABP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.16, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ABP as Neutral (3) -

While Abacus Property's first half funds from operations missed Macquarie by -7%, excitement was generated by a proposed spin-off of self-storage assets into the Abacus Storage King REIT.

While further detail is still to be provided, Macquarie suggests a de-stapling provides an opportunity to crystallise equity valuation upside from the storage portfolio in the near term.

Abacus is currently trading on a price to net tangible asset discount of -11%, the broker notes, while National Storage REIT ((NSR)) trades at a 3% premium.

On the balance of this news and the weak result, Neutral retained. Target rises to $2.90 from $2.66.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $3.06 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If ABP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.16, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ABP as Accumulate (2) -

First half results for Abacus Property were in line with Ord Minnett's forecasts.

On a per security basis, funds from operations (FFO) fell by -7% due to equity raisings over the period.

Management reaffirmed full year DPS guidance of 18.4cpu (the analyst expects 18.6cpu) and declared an interim 9cpu distribution.

The REIT also announced its self-storage assets will be de-stapled and separately listed in a new REIT on the ASX, which should represent an attractive target for overseas players, according to the broker.

Ord Minnett keeps its Accumulate rating and $3.30 target, which is a step-up from the prior $3.10 target in the FNArena database, as the broker now whitelabels its research from Morningstar instead of JP Morgan.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.06 Difference: $0.24
If ABP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.16, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AIA as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -

Ord Minnett now whitelabels Morningstar instead of JPMorgan and Auckland International Airport is included in the coverage, with a recent downgrade to Lighten as the share price has moved through the valuation trigger point. Target is $7.

Auckland International Airport has substantial development opportunity which could bring its capacity up to nearly 26m passenger movements per year by 2026, the broker highlights.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $7.95 Difference: minus $0.95 (current price is over target).
If AIA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.25, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALL as Buy (1) -

Following a change of analyst, UBS reviews forecasts across the sector. The broker envisages Aristocrat Leisure providing a growth proposition less linked to global macro conditions and more to other discretionary exposures.

Strong free cash flow generation is expected to provide flexibility for growth investment and/or further capital returns. Buy rating and $41.60 target maintained.

Target price is $41.60 Current Price is $36.35 Difference: $5.25
If ALL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.26, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AMP as No Rating (-1) -

Citi remains under research restriction and offers no price target or rating for AMP though still provides commentary and forecasts after FY22 results.

Earnings forecasts exclude any impact of the sale of AMP Capital’s real estate and domestic infrastructure equity business, given the broker is an advisor on the transaction.

AMP is guiding to flat controllable costs in FY23, which suggests to the analyst even this will be hard to achieve (thereby muting earnings progress) though at least management will likely focus on reductions in costs for FY24 and beyond.

By stating the last -20m-$30m of losses will be challenging to remove, Citi feels management is casting doubt on breakeven being achieved for the Advice business by FY24.

Current Price is $1.14. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $1.17, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AMP as Equal-weight (3) -

With AMP delivering underlying earnings -21% below Morgan Stanley's assumptions for 2022, the broker has been left disappointed by the result.

The miss was driven by uncontrollable costs and lower wealth earnings, which declined to $14m in the second half while wealth outflows stepped up to -$1.56bn in the final quarter. 

Alongside higher than expected cost guidance for 2023, the result has increased the broker's concerns about risk to consensus forecasts. 

The Equal-weight rating and target price of $1.30 are retained. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.14 Difference: $0.165
If AMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.17, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AMP as Sell (5) -

On further analysis, the main concern UBS retains relates to the outlook after Collimate sale proceeds have been returned. The cost base is still too large and the divisions are not a natural fit, the broker adds.

The buyback may defend the stock in the short term yet the broker retains a Sell rating and lowers the target to $1.00 from $1.09.

After the current buyback is completed AMP has earmarked $400m for return in FY23, including three dividends of 2.5c per share. The residual $350m could be pushed into the next year, but the timeframe surrounding these returns remains uncertain, UBS points out.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $1.14 Difference: minus $0.135 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.17, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASX as Neutral (3) -

Citi makes only compositional changes to its forecasts for the ASX following 1H results and retains its $70 target and Neutral rating.

Management revised capex guidance lower following a pause in the CHESS replacement program, which the broker expects will rise again once a new solution is found.

On that point, the ASX is aiming to announce the new CHESS solution design in 2Q of FY24, which means ongoing uncertainty, cautions the analyst. 

Target price is $70.00 Current Price is $70.25 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $69.84, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ASX as Neutral (3) -

ASX posted a miss on earnings due to a miss on revenues and costs, Credit Suisse notes. A steep step-up in second half expense growth reflects one-off expenses for regulatory reviews and CHESS, and the expensing, rather than capitalisation, of the CHESS replacement team.

The broker expects a reasonable portion of this might reverse over the next 6-12 months as ASX begins developing a replacement system. But the broker also believes there is increased likelihood that debt will creep onto ASX’s balance sheet in coming years, hence the potential for the introduction of a DRP.

Target falls to $66 from $72, Neutral retained.

Target price is $66.00 Current Price is $70.25 Difference: minus $4.25 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $69.84, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ASX as Outperform (1) -

It appears the ASX result met Macquarie's expectations given weakness in IPO and futures markets in the period had been previously flagged.

Guidance for FY23 was unchanged for opex and capex although additional CHESS costs will be incurred over the second half and future years, but importantly ASX will look through this when paying dividends, the broker notes.

Macquarie remains confident in the long-term growth outlook, but recognises the lack of catalysts between now and December when
guidance is due on the next steps of the CHESS replacement project (having abandoned blockchain).

Outperform retained, target falls to $75.50 from $76.50.

Target price is $75.50 Current Price is $70.25 Difference: $5.25
If ASX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $69.84, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ASX as Equal-weight (3) -

A solid first half underlying result from ASX, with net profit a 2% beat to Morgan Stanley's assumptions while revenues missed by -1% on weaker listings and markets. 

The company has announced an up to $70m Partnership Program, with $15m to fund rebates on settlements and clearing participant fees and up to $55m in incentive payments for new CHESS solutions.

While Morgan Stanley sees this as a positive step, it notes the amount is less than half of industry spend. The Equal-weight rating and target price of $70.00 are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $70.00 Current Price is $70.25 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $69.84, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ASX as Hold (3) -

Morgans assesses a mixed result for the ASX, with underlying profit in the 1H broadly in line with consensus while revenue and earnings were only slight misses.

A solution design announcement for the CHESS replacement program is slated for the 4Q of 2023. The broker considers this a key takeaway from results day, with the ASX establishing a “CHESS replacement partnership program” at a cost of -$70m.

The amount will be split between -$15m as direct rebates to participants and a development incentive facility up to -$55m.

The target rises to $73.40 from $72.80. Hold.

Target price is $73.40 Current Price is $70.25 Difference: $3.15
If ASX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $69.84, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AUB as Outperform (1) -

AUB Group had updated FY23 profit guidance in December and did so again yesterday, up 5%, following a first half earnings result that beat Macquarie.

The result was driven by Nov-Dec trading, strategic growth initiatives and Tysers performing ahead of expectations, the broker notes. AUB expects positive trading conditions to continue in the second half.

Upgraded FY guidance incorporates the first half result, the Tysers acquisition (only last October) and continued strong premium rate
rises for Australia and moderate but accelerating rate rises in New Zealand.

Target rises to $28.26 from $24.82, Outperform retained.

Target price is $28.26 Current Price is $25.99 Difference: $2.27
If AUB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.23, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BAP as Buy (1) -

Following 1H results, Citi anticipates the medium-term upside generated by Bapcor 's "Better Than Before" (BTB) transformation program will outweigh any shorter-term performance risks and raises its target to $9.18 from $7.98.

The broker also expects the stock will trade at a higher multiple, as the Asian expansion is expected to resume shortly.

The analyst forecasts a moderation for inventory levels in the 2H, which were the cause of weak cash conversion in the 1H.

The Buy rating is unchanged.

Target price is $9.18 Current Price is $6.53 Difference: $2.65
If BAP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.63, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BAP as Neutral (3) -

Bapcor posted revenues and earnings ahead of expectation.

As is the case with many transformations, things get a little harder before they improve, Credit Suisse warns. The broker believes that is the case for Bapcor over the next 12 months.

While the company enjoys industry exposure that should lead to robust demand over the next 12 months, the broker does not believe the operating margin will improve materially in this timeframe.

Target falls to $6.50 from $6.80, Neutral retained.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $6.53 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If BAP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.63, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BAP as Outperform (1) -

Bapcor's first half revenue increase of 11% year on year and 7% for earnings met Macquarie's expectations. Supply chain improvements are starting to show, current trading is solid, and guidance is for a slightly improved second half.

Guidance reflects a more cautious macro-outlook in the Retail and NZ segments, the broker suggests. With the Vic distribution centre operating efficiently, performance should improve through 2023 as activity levels in the core aftermarket businesses remain robust.

Outperform retained on an attractive valuation. Target falls to $8.40 from $9.70 on a lower peer PE multiple.

Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $6.53 Difference: $1.87
If BAP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.63, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BAP as Equal-weight (3) -

A strong sales performance saw Bapcor surprise to the upside with its first half result. The company reported sales of $1.0bn, a 5.5% beat to Morgan Stanley's expectations, earnings of $146m, a 5.3% beat, and net profits of $62m, a 6.9% beat. 

Cash conversion was the let down of the result at just 67.8%, and Morgan Stanley points out there is little relief in sight as management commented more work is required to reduce elevated inventory levels. 

The Underweight rating and target price of $6.00 are retained. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $6.53 Difference: minus $0.53 (current price is over target).
If BAP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.63, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BAP as Hold (3) -

Bapcor's 1H profit was in line with Morgans forecast as were divisional composition/drivers. While revenue was considered strong, pre-flagged margin compression weighed.

Management guided to an improvement in the 2H over the 1H, which implies to the analyst "temporary" margin impacts will unwind. The company also reaffirmed longer-term targets contained within its "Better Than Before" (BTB) transformation program.

The broker retains its Hold rating, noting that guidance points to a continuation of challenging trading conditions. The target falls to $7.40 from $7.65.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $6.53 Difference: $0.87
If BAP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.63, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BAP as Buy (1) -

First half results were largely in line with expectations. Results for Burson Trade and specialist wholesale operations were very strong, but offset by the margin compression in the retail and NZ businesses.

Ord Minnett expects earnings growth will be driven by Burson Trade and expansion of the Bapcor store network in Australasia, as well as an improvement in operating margins and growth in Asia. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $8.40 from $8.60.

Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $6.53 Difference: $1.87
If BAP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.63, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BAP as Buy (1) -

Upon further analysis, UBS acknowledges it was cautious about Autobarn's relative performance to peers heading into the result, yet retail revenue came in comfortably ahead of forecasts.

While cash conversion is weak, Bapcor is confident this will revert in the second half on inventory reductions. The broker forecasts a small improvement, half-on-half, to margins while a continuation of demand conditions from January presents some upside risk to FY23 forecasts.

Only minor downgrades are made to estimates, amid D&A and interest expense increases, and UBS retains a Buy rating, reducing the target to $7.50 from $7.60.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $6.53 Difference: $0.97
If BAP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.63, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BBN as Neutral (3) -

Baby Bunting had already issued a profit warning so today's release of H1 financials showed numbers in line with Citi's expectations.

Having said this, it seems the second half has started on a weaker-than-expected footing. Not adding to the broker's entrhusiasm is the CEO leaving.

Target $2.90. Neutral.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.46 Difference: $0.44
If BBN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.17, suggesting upside of 38.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BLX as Neutral (3) -

Despite 9% sales growth in the 1H for Beacon Lighting, Citi retains its Neutral rating in the belief a housing-related downturn in the core retail business will outweigh growth from trade and other new businesses.

The 1H gross and (EBIT) earnings margins declined by -200bps and -310bps, respectively. The broker was surprised by the size of these contractions and reduces its FY23-25 underlying profit forecasts by -7 to -11%, after also allowing for higher operating expenses.

The target falls to $2.03 from $2.50. 

Target price is $2.03 Current Price is $1.88 Difference: $0.15
If BLX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BLX as Add (1) -

Morgans retains its Add rating and $2.60 target after 1H sales for Beacon Lighting exceeded expectations though profit missed by -6% on higher operating costs and lower gross margins.

The gross margin eased to 68% from the record 70% in the 1H of FY22 though was in line with the 2H of FY22.

The broker feels the company is well placed to achieve stable earnings via positive revenue growth in both FY23 and FY24.

The Add rating and $2.60 target are unchanged.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $1.88 Difference: $0.72
If BLX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CDA as Neutral (3) -

Codan had pre-reported results so no suprises.

Communications segment revenue was up 16% year on year and ahead of AGM guidance, Macquarie notes. Profit margins of 25% were achieved earlier than Codan’s FY23 goal, with a longer-term target of at least 30%.

Metal detection revenue declined largely due to ongoing disruption in Africa. Reduced reliance on Africa will reduce seasonality and should provide greater earnings visibility, the broker suggests.

Africa comprised 8% of first half sales versus 27% a year ago. The acquisition of GeoConex expected to be immediately earnings-accretive.

Target rises to $5.85 from $4.20, Neutral retained.

Target price is $5.85 Current Price is $5.66 Difference: $0.19
If CDA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CIP as Buy (1) -

Centuria Industrial REIT has a new $300m exchangeable note offering with a 3.45-3.95% coupon at a 25% exchange premium. While the coupon is lower than current debt costs, UBS calculates the impact of converting to equity is dilutive and lowers gearing by -7%.

The broker highlights the fact this business is not alone as it heads into an rapidly changing interest-rate environment under-hedged and with elevated gearing.

FY23 guidance is unchanged suggesting there is potential to beat guidance and a Buy rating and $3.68 target are maintained.

Target price is $3.68 Current Price is $3.47 Difference: $0.21
If CIP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.37, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CQR as Buy (1) -

Citi points out Charter Hall Retail REIT's non-discretionary tenants providing some underlying relative defense against a weaker consumer, and 59% of the portfolio benefits from CPI links or turnover rent adjustments.

Following 1H results, the broker lowers its FY23 funds from operations (FFO) forecast on higher interest rates though raises FY25 slightly on ongoing recycling of assets and pass through of inflation.

The Buy rating is unchanged, while the target rises to $4.50 from $4.30.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.13 Difference: $0.37
If CQR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CQR as Outperform (1) -

Charter Hall Retail REIT's operating earnings were in line with Macquarie, and FY23 guidance is reaffirmed. The REIT will continue to recycle capital with a preference to deploy into petrol stations given CPI linkage and low capex.

Revenues again highlighted the strength of underlying income, the broker suggests, aided by specialty leasing spreads for the shopping centre portfolio and CPI linkages in the petrol station portfolio.

While there is some volatility in earnings in FY24, the medium-term outlook remains robust. Target rises to $4.33 from $4.30, Outperform retained.

Target price is $4.33 Current Price is $4.13 Difference: $0.2
If CQR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CQR as Accumulate (2) -

First half results were in line with Ord Minnett's forecast. Guidance was reaffirmed and the broker notes occupancy, leasing spreads and specialty sales growth were all strong. The broker believes guidance is conservative and retains an Accumulate rating.

While many of Charter Hall Retail REIT's peers reported valuation losses, growth in valuations across the company's long WALE portfolio was driven by recent acquisitions and the BP portfolio. Target edges up to $4.26 from $4.24.

Target price is $4.26 Current Price is $4.13 Difference: $0.13
If CQR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CQR as Neutral (3) -

First half results beat UBS estimates and FY23 guidance has been reaffirmed for "no less than" 28.7c per security, underpinned by higher rental income and lower debt costs.

The broker assesses the divestment of Allentown Square at book and Brickworks at 6% above book are a sign of Charter Hall Retail REIT's ability in recycling assets during a period when bid/ask spreads are wide. Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $4.14 from $4.28.

Target price is $4.14 Current Price is $4.13 Difference: $0.01
If CQR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates DHG as Neutral (3) -

Domain Holdings' result was largely in line with pre-released numbers, Credit Suisse notes. Without any specific guidance, commentary on listings into the second half pointed to a continuation of the challenging market environment experienced in the Dec quarter.

The broker forecasts a -12.5% volume decline for second half, but expects listings to see a recovery in FY24. Yield growth provides a longer term offset.

Neutral and $3.00 target retained.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.18 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If DHG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.35, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DHG as Neutral (3) -

Domain Holdings Australia reported in line with the December trading update.

Domain highlighted that some 80% of Realbase’s revenues are transactional. This is consistent with Macquarie's expectations of softer-than-expected revenue outside of the core listings business, which will form the bulk of the downgrades to consensus or disappointments in FY24 and beyond.

Macquarie believes market expectations around the non-listings businesses remain too optimistic, and believes we are at least six months away from the trough in housing markets.

That said, target rises to $3.10 from $2.90. Neutral retained, as the stock is trading at a discount to REA Group ((REA)).

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $3.18 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If DHG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.35, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DHG as Lighten (4) -

First half results support Ord Minnett's assessment that Domain Holdings Australia has a structurally weaker and more cyclical network compared with REA Group ((REA)).

The company's business is materially challenged in a normalised listings environment, with the cost structure having expanded since the pandemic and, as a result, operating de-leverage has been rapid.

While some of the excessive decline in margins can be explained by acquisitions with lower-margin profiles Ord Minnett believes a weaker network is the better explanation.

The broker now whitelabels Morningstar instead of JPMorgan and has a Lighten rating. Target is $2.30.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $3.18 Difference: minus $0.88 (current price is over target).
If DHG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.35, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DTL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley was largely unsurprised by Data#3's first half results given they were pre-released. Profits before tax were up 32% year-on-year to $24.6m in the half, and the company has guided to a 55% second half skew. 

The broker appreciated improved visibility over the company's outlook, noting resiliency of the IT market and a growing pipeline of projects were both positives.

Morgan Stanley was somewhat concerned about a material increase to operating expenditure, but notes the increased spend will support services growth. 

The Overweight rating and target price of $7.30 are retained. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $7.16 Difference: $0.14
If DTL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.17, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DTL as Hold (3) -

Following strong 1H results that were broadly in line with expectations, Morgans assesses customer demand for Data#3's services remains very resilient.

The result was, as recently flagged by management, at the upper-end of guidance, with a year-on-year increase in revenue, profit and EPS/DPS of 17%, 14% and 38%, respectively.

While management provided no formal guidance for FY23, positive commentary around a buoyant 2H prompts the broker to lift its EPS forecasts and raise its target to $6.70 from $6.42. Hold.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $7.16 Difference: minus $0.46 (current price is over target).
If DTL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.17, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVN as Sell (5) -

Evolution Mining's 1H underlying earnings (EBITDA) were in line with Citi though a -5% miss against the consensus estimate.

Management retained full year guidance. No interim dividend was expected by the analyst, yet 2cps was declared.

The broker's Sell rating is retained, given capex intensity and little conviction Red Lake can deliver positive cash. The share price is trading close to the new target of $2.90, down from $3.00.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.97 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.00, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EVN as Underperform (5) -

Evolution Mining reported a slight underlying earnings beat of Macquarie's forecast while net debt was larger than expected. Dividend in line.

The Mungari mill expansion project is now expected to take 2.5 years to build which is 1.25 years slower than the broker's previous estimate.

Catalysts include improvement in Red Lake and timing of the first stope at Cowal, in addition to upcoming studies at Ernest Henry and Mungari.

Target falls to $2.50 from $2.90, Underperform retained.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.97 Difference: minus $0.47 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.00, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EVN as Add (1) -

Morgans assesses a soft 1H result for Evolution Mining with underlying profit and earnings (EBITDA) missing consensus forecasts by -18% and -4%, respectively.

Lower earnings and higher capex resulted in a smaller-than-expected interim dividend of 2cps, explains the analyst.

However, unchanged FY23 production and all-in sustaining cost (AISC) guidance implies a strong 2H, suggests the broker, and the Add rating and $3.70 target are left unchanged.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $2.97 Difference: $0.73
If EVN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.00, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EVN as Hold (3) -

First half earnings were slightly softer than Ord Minnett expected. The broker was surprised by the dividend as the company deviated from its former policy and took into account the financial outlook.

An improvement in second half earnings is expected in line with the production guidance target. Downside risk is envisaged for Red Lake in the short term, coupled with a lack of valuation support. Hence, a Hold rating is maintained and the target is reduced to $3.05 from $3.20.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.97 Difference: $0.08
If EVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.00, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Sell (5) -

First half results were in line with expectations. UBS notes Evolution Mining will emerge from the current reinvestment cycle with peak net debt below its internal limit of 35%, and having not raised capital.

Hence, with improved prices and an increase in production, earnings should increase in FY24. Nevertheless, the stock is trading at a premium to the broker's target, reduced to $2.70 from $2.80, and a Sell rating is maintained.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.97 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.00, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates GMG as Outperform (1) -

Goodman Group's earnings came in above Credit Suisse. FY guidance was upgraded, but this was expected, because it always is. The broker highlights two years of development visibility, with margins still healthy.

The broker's investment view is predicated on Goodman's strong balance sheet, attractive earnings growth outlook and a view that there are still plenty of legs left in the supply chain rationalisation/e-commerce thematic, not to mention data centres.

Outperform retained, target down to $21.69 from $21.70.

Target price is $21.69 Current Price is $20.23 Difference: $1.46
If GMG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.75, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GMG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie doesn't qualify Goodman Group's result but FY earnings growth guidance was upgraded to 13.5% from 11%, and the broker sits 2% above guidance.

Increased confidence in FY24 driven by a shift in developments on balance sheet combined with a potential increase in recognised performance fees.

Fears of a softening trend in development metrics following the Sep quarter appear overdone following material improvement in the Dec quarter, the broker notes. By taking advantage of more limited competition in the market, Goodman is setting itself up for the next cycle.

Outperform retained, target rises to $22.61 from $21.28.

Target price is $22.61 Current Price is $20.23 Difference: $2.38
If GMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.75, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GMG as Overweight (1) -

Following its first half Goodman Group has lifted earnings per share growth guidance to 13.5% from 11.0% for the full fiscal year, which, while positive, somewhat underwhelmed Morgan Stanley.

Guidance implies full year earnings per share of 92.3 cents, and with first half earnings per share of 46.4 cents the broker expects upgraded guidance is beatable.

The broker also expects the company is preparing the market for a decline in its work in progress, which has already effectively flat-lined over the last eighteen months at $13-14bn.

The Overweight rating and target price of $24.10 are retained. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $24.10 Current Price is $20.23 Difference: $3.87
If GMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.75, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GMG as Buy (1) -

Upon further analysis, UBS notes the main drivers of the business have largely improved over the December quarter, reflecting historical low vacancies in key markets, an acceleration in rental growth and improvement in development yields.

Development yields on completion are very attractive at 8.3% and FY23 guidance is largely de-risked, with around 50% a second-half development profits locked in.

Balance sheet development profits are an increasing focus for investors, the broker adds, and combined with work-in-progress shifting away from Hong Kong/China this should allow Goodman Group to manage a 7-11% growth profile over the medium term.

Buy rating and $23 target retained.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $20.23 Difference: $2.77
If GMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.75, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GNC as Outperform (1) -

GrainCorp provided FY23 earnings guidance of $470-530m at its AGM compared to Macquarie's prior $434m. The earnings upgrade story continues, supported by supply chains running at close to full capacity, strong execution and positive global demand.

Global demand for Australian grain/oilseeds remains strong, the broker notes, but while winter saw another above-average crop, the FY22 peak has now passed.

The key focus for investors, Macquarie suggests, is what to do with the bulging balance sheet, which offers organic or M&A growth and/or capital return optionality. Outperform and $10.80 target retained.

Target price is $10.80 Current Price is $7.60 Difference: $3.2
If GNC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.80, suggesting upside of 13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GNC as Hold (3) -

FY23 earnings (EBITDA) guidance by GrainCorp at its AGM was much better than Morgans anticipated though in-line profit guidance was due to materially higher interest expense outlook.

The analyst moves its forecasts up to the top-end of the guidance range as management is traditionally conservative in making estimates.

Looking out further, the broker cautions earnings are set to decline over FY23-25. In addition, the shares are considered reasonably priced and the Hold rating is left unchanged. The target rises to $8.60 from $8.50.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $7.60 Difference: $1
If GNC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.80, suggesting upside of 13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GNC as Buy (1) -

GrainCorp has announced operating earnings (EBITDA) guidance for FY23 in the range of $470-530m, ahead of prior UBS estimates. The above-average earnings year is based on strong crop and receivables with supply chains running close to full capacity amid healthy global demand.

The broker emphasises that investors should focus on in-line net profit guidance, at $180-220m,rather than any earnings beat, given there has been a significant increase in interest expenses and this is passed through in commodity pricing, in effect increasing EBITDA but not affecting net profit. UBS retains a Buy rating with an $8.65 target.

Target price is $8.65 Current Price is $7.60 Difference: $1.05
If GNC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.80, suggesting upside of 13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates GOZ as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Growthpoint Properties Australia's 12.5% year on year growth in funds from operations beat Credit Suisse. Finance costs were higher, consistent with an increase in the REIT’s cost of debt and higher average debt balances.

Portfolio occupancy is lower at 94% with a WALE of 6.3 years due to well flagged tenant departures in the Office portfolio, the broker notes. Leasing success at Skyring should help improve occupancy in the near term, with Murray Rose remaining a swing factor over the shorter term.

Growthpoint continues to trade on a discount to net tangible asset valuation while offering a 6.2% yield, but has recently run harder than peers, the broker notes. Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform, target rises to $3.60 from $3.56.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.43 Difference: $0.17
If GOZ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GOZ as Outperform (1) -

Growthpoint Properties Australia's funds from operations were 6% ahead of Macquarie. Despite the REIT cycling of one-offs in the prior period and a rising cost of debt, the broker sees upside risk to guidance and long-term growth could be driven by funds management.

There is upside risk to guidance throughout the remainder of FY23, Macquarie believes, particularly with the group flagging leasing momentum in office.

Although potential for elevated leverage and softening office fundamentals remain key downside risks, with the stock trading at a -19% discount to net tangible asset valuation, the broker retains Outperform. Target rises to $3.58 from $3.34.

Target price is $3.58 Current Price is $3.43 Difference: $0.15
If GOZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IPH as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes in a first look IPH's first half results appear in line with consensus expectations, with revenue in the half increased 19% to $227m, earnings increased 24% to $80.4m, and net profits increased 21% to $48.6m. 

Segmentally, Asia remains strong and Australia and New Zealand soft. The former increased constant currency revenue 9% and earnings 10%, while the latter reported a -3% constant currency revenue decline and a -6% earnings decline.

The Overweight rating and target price of $10.50 are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $8.72 Difference: $1.78
If IPH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.33, suggesting upside of 22.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IPH as Hold (3) -

IPH's first half results were in line with Morgans expectations. Revenues for A&NZ fell by-3% and rose by 9% in Asia, while there was also a contribution from the newly-acquired S&B. 

Domestic filing fell by -7.7% with market share falling to 32.6% from 34% in FY22. Singapore share fell to 23.4% from 24% in 2021.

The interim dividend of 15.5cps was an increase of 7% on the previous corresponding period.

While near-term organic growth is subdued and the stock may be subject to sentiment on domestic filings and currency, the broker likes the longer-term opportunity.

The Hold rating is unchanged and the target falls to $9.65 from $10.45. 

Target price is $9.65 Current Price is $8.72 Difference: $0.93
If IPH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.33, suggesting upside of 22.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IPH as Buy (1) -

On further analysis, UBS believes M&A will be a key driver for the stock. IPH has signalled it is implementing some digital initiatives to drive revenue growth, ahead of the "IPH Way" efficiency program providing a benefit from FY25.

UBS envisages several opportunities such as bolt-on acquisitions in Canada, entry into a new secondary IP market, and adjacent businesses in translation services, patent renewals and/or software. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $10.40 from $11.00.

Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $8.72 Difference: $1.68
If IPH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.33, suggesting upside of 22.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IPL as No Rating (-1) -

Incitec Pivot's AGM revealed the business outlook is materially in line with what provided at FY result in November. Phosphate Hill and WALA's manufacturing performances are tracking to plan, Macquarie notes, including nameplate production for WALA.

Management will provide an update on the WALA review at, if not before, the first half results in May.

The broker is on research restriction.

Current Price is $3.59. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.20, suggesting upside of 19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LFS as Neutral (3) -

Latitude Group, earlier today, released H1 financial numbers and Macquarie, upon initial assessment, reports the result was in line at the pre-provisioning level.

Continued elevated repayment levels and margin pressures from rising funding costs had a negative impact and were only partially offset through improved volumes and better than expected expense outcomes, comments the broker.

More RBA rate hikes keep the revenue outlook a challenge, predicts Macquarie, which is why the broker prefers to remain cautious. Neutral. Target $1.30.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.36 Difference: minus $0.055 (current price is over target).
If LFS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.35, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LYC as Sell (5) -

The Malaysian regulator has renewed the operating license for the Lynas Rare Earths plant, yet several conditions remain in place that prohibit the import and processing of rare earths after July 1 2023.

Ord Minnett asserts this implies there will be no feedstock after that date, which could result in a shutdown and have a material impact on cash flow until Kalgoorlie commences. Moreover, Kalgoorlie appears well behind schedule.

The broker reiterates a Sell rating, although notes the business has a strong balance sheet which can weather an extended outage. Target is raised to $6.70 from $5.05.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $8.28 Difference: minus $1.58 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.97, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates MFG as Neutral (3) -

Magellan Financial's profit was -5% below Credit Suisse. Stripping out Associates (large miss) and volatile investment income (large beat), core Funds Management earnings were -2% below consensus.

Magellan’s fund performance remains underwhelming which is likely to drive ongoing outflows and declining earnings which makes paying anything more than a high single digit PE for funds management challenging, the broker declares.

Upside risk from product/capability expansion is years away and carries significant execution risk.

Target rises to $9.10 from $8.90, Neutral retained.

Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $10.05 Difference: minus $0.95 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.36, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MFG as Neutral (3) -

There were several moving parts in Magellan Financial's result, Macquarie notes, but roughly it was in line. Expense guidance is unchanged, and limited growth is possible again in FY24.

Magellan's valuation is not stretched, the broker suggests. While outflows will likely moderate, investment performance remains disappointing, which is the key catalyst for further re-rating.

Target rises to $9.60 from $9.15. Neutral retained.

Target price is $9.60 Current Price is $10.05 Difference: minus $0.45 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.36, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MFG as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett believes the downside risks for Magellan Financial are more than priced into the stock. The -60% drop in interim underlying net profit was largely expected and net losses from Barrenjoey and FinClear appear more cyclical than structural.

The broker also notes good progress has been made on several fronts that should comfort investors. That said, Ord Minnett assesses it will be difficult to restore the company's competitive strengths and downgrades to Hold from Accumulate. Target is $11.50.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $10.05 Difference: $1.45
If MFG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.36, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MFG as Buy (1) -

First half results were largely in line with expectations. The rally in the stock post the results reflects the prospect of lower costs going into FY24, UBS suggests, although caution prevails in extrapolating non-recurring items.

The broker believes further upside will require evidence retail outflows are slowing along with an improvement in the investment performance plus realisation of the value of in-principal investments.

Magellan Financial has reiterated funds management expense guidance for FY23 of -$125-30m but the broker is cautious about locking in the benefit in the outlook. Buy rating and $10 target are unchanged.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $10.05 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.36, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MP1 as Buy (1) -

Citi sees both positives and negatives after attempting a read-through for Megaport from December quarter results by US-peer Equinix.

On the one hand, Equinex cited the uncertain macroeconomic backdrop for customer spending. On the other hand, the broker forecasts a worse macro environment in the March quarter based on hyperscale commentary.

The Buy rating and $10.95 target are unchanged.

Target price is $10.95 Current Price is $6.44 Difference: $4.51
If MP1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.61, suggesting upside of 53.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NAB as Neutral (3) -

National Australia Bank's Dec quarter earnings were up 18.7% year on year, excluding impairment charges.

It was another solid trading update, Credit Suisse declares, showing good net interest margin momentum which appears to be partly driven by volume growth as well as business mix.

Following the update the broker has increased margin forecasts, increased markets income for the March quarter, and lowered bad debt assumptions.

But target falls to $31.00 from $32.40 and Neutral retained.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $30.51 Difference: $0.49
If NAB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.20, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NAB as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie considers National Australia Bank reported robust results for 1Q23, with a 15% improvement in revenue and a 15bps increase in margins.

The analyst points to similar operational trends with Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)) with margins topping out in the 2Q23, from the competitive landscape in the mortgage sector and changing dynamics in the deposit market.

National Australia Bank's high exposure to the SME market is viewed as a positive attribute by Macquarie, however, the current market valuation is fully discounting the more defensive nature of this sector.

1H23 results are due on May 4.

A Neutral rating and $31 target are unchanged.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $30.51 Difference: $0.49
If NAB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.20, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Equal-weight (3) -

National Australia Bank reported a solid first quarter, with cash profit and pre-provision profit beating Morgan Stanley's assumptions by 10% and 8% respectively. 

Underlying cost growth was higher than the broker had expected for the period, driving Morgan Stanley to lift its full year expense growth estimate by 1.0%, now anticipating growth of 6.0% given higher inflation, lower productivity benefits, rising depreciation and amortisation and investment spend. 

The Equal-weight rating and target price of $30.00 are retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $30.51 Difference: minus $0.51 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.20, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NAB as Hold (3) -

First quarter cash profit of $2.2bn has signalled a strong start to the year for National Australia Bank and Ord Minnett increases FY23 profit forecasts by 9%.

The bank appears to be chasing loans less aggressively than its peers yet still managed to grow home loans by more than the broker originally expected.

Meanwhile, bad debts remain low although this is expected to become more of a drag on earnings in the second half. Ord Minnett now whitelabels Morningstar instead of JPMorgan and has a Hold rating with a $30 target.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $30.51 Difference: minus $0.51 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.20, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NAN as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -

After a recent share price rally for Nanosonics, the valuation trigger at Ord Minnett has been reached and the broker's rating falls to Lighten from Hold.

No changes are made to the analyst's forecasts and the $4.00 target is unchanged.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.87 Difference: minus $0.87 (current price is over target).
If NAN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.60, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NCM as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Credit Suisse suggests Newcrest Mining posted a "soft" beat on fair value adjustments. A record dividend of US15c ordinary and US20c special surprised against the broker's US8c forecast.

Credit Suisse feels a buyback would provide better value creation for shareholders. Newcrest has for sometime been significantly undervalued versus peers and the broker doesn't believe shareholders own the stock for a 3% yield.

Given few near-term catalysts for re-rating, Credit Suisse is surprised the board rejected Newmont's offer. Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform. Target falls to $24.00 from $24.50.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $23.90 Difference: $0.1
If NCM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.01, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NCM as Neutral (3) -

An unexpected special 20c dividend in the 1H23 earnings report provided a highlight to an otherwise weaker than forecast result for Newcrest Mining, according to Macquarie.

Adjusting for US$70m in abnormal gains, EBITDA was -13% below the broker's forecast and bottom line profits a -5% miss, with much softer cashflow, due to -US$243m in exploration and working capital costs.

The board of Newcrest Mining has unanimously rejected the Newmont takeover bid with the scrip offering seen as undervaluing the company.

Macquarie's earnings forecasts are lowered by -12% for FY23. The Neutral rating and $25 target are unchanged.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $23.90 Difference: $1.1
If NCM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.01, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NCM as Add (1) -

The board of Newcrest Mining has unanimously rejected Newmont's takeover bid on the grounds it offers insufficient value, though the company is still willing to share non-public information.

Separately, Morgans assesses a strong 1H production report. Compared to the same time last year, there was 25% more gold and 32% more copper produced, and management is aiming to increase its exposure to copper via existing assets.

The company maintained production and cost guidance.

The big surprise for the broker regarded dividends, with US35cps declared, including a special dividend of US20cps. The latter was a full distribution of proceeds from Lundin Gold's early repayment of the gold prepay facility.

Morgans retains its Add rating and $25.70 target.

Target price is $25.70 Current Price is $23.90 Difference: $1.8
If NCM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.01, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NCM as Neutral (3) -

The board of Newcrest Mining has rejected the 0.38 scrip offer from Newmont as inadequate although will allow access to limited information on a non-exclusive basis, in order to provoke a better offer.

Given the weaker currency of Newmont paper, UBS calculates the offer is pricing US$25.45/oz for Newcrest shares.

UBS was disappointed there was no news on growth and options in the portfolio. Moreover, there is no clarity around timelines or the urgency in terms of the Newmont offer.

The bid started to highlight the value of the large gold and copper inventory yet the broker awaits many of the studies that should underpin this. Neutral rating and $25.45 target maintained.

Target price is $25.45 Current Price is $23.90 Difference: $1.55
If NCM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.01, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NHC as Outperform (1) -

New Hope Corp reported a soft Dec quarter with both production and sales misssing consensus by -20%, Credit Suisse notes, due to dragline maintenance and mine sequencing to prioritise waste movement, but these should materially improve second half performance.

Earnings missed by -30%, but a 40% earnings payout could imply around a 49c interim dividend to come, the broker estimates, annualising to an18% yield, which alone should keep investors interested, in the broker's view.

Target falls to $5.80 from $7.80, Outperform retained.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.52 Difference: $0.28
If NHC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.41, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights weaker than expected 2Q23 results from New Hope, with EBITDA some -26% below forecasts.

Of note, Bengalla reported both softer production and sales over the period with a 27-day shutdown impacting the operations.

The NSW coal reservation scheme is also dragging on earnings, leading to lower earnings forecasts for FY24, although the ramp-up of stage 3 New Acland and the buyback are viewed as supportive to sentiment and the share price.

Macquarie downgrades earnings forecasts by -29% for FY23 and -10% for FY24, and notes that its own estimates are higher than market consensus.

A potential further headwind from weaker thermal coal prices is possible under spot pricing. An Outperform rating is retained and the target is lowered to $6 from $6.50.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.52 Difference: $0.48
If NHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.41, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWH as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Following 1H results, Citi downgrades its rating for NRW Holdings to Neutral from Buy, in the expectation of near-term headwinds from competitors preferencing revenue over returns.

The result was also weaker than the analyst expected largely due to the Civil division where competitors have been aggressively bidding on contracts.

In the markets that the company can actively pursue, the broker notes ongoing clear visibility for near-term revenue and no shortage of work.

Management reaffirmed FY23 revenue guidance.

The target falls to $2.80 from $2.90. 

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: $0
If NWH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.80, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWH as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie assesses NRW Holdings met expectations for 1H23 earnings, although the report reflected mixed results; revenue was better than expected and EBIT lower than anticipated.

The dividend came in 42% better than the broker's forecast at 8c per share. Management guidance was unchanged and suggested an improvement in margins is expected in the 2H23.

Macquarie adjusts EPS forecasts by -1% for FY23 and FY24 earnings estimates are unchanged.

Target unchanged at $2.50 and the rating is downgraded to Neutral from Overweight, due to potential macro headwinds from higher inflation, wage growth and margin impacts.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If NWH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.80, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NWH as Buy (1) -

On further reflection, UBS retains a Buy rating on NRW Holdings on the basis the stock offers leverage to a second phase in the Western Australian iron ore replacement expenditure cycle and, post the pullback, the current valuation is attractive.

The broker expects cash conversion will improve in the second half which could support a reduction in gearing. Target is steady at $3.10.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: $0.3
If NWH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.80, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORA as Buy (1) -

Citi assesses a solid 1H result for Orora (though maybe the positive share price action was overdone) in a slowing environment, with earnings (EBIT) beating the consensus forecast by 4%.

The analysts's highlights were a 30bps improvement in margin for North America and a 21% lift for year-on-year revenue in Australasia on strong pricing power and the ability to recover inflation costs.

As new manufacturing lines come online, the broker is confident growth can continue and expects the next phase is a return of capital to investors.

The target falls to $3.70 from $3.95. Buy.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: $0.37
If ORA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ORA as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse has left its earnings forecasts broadly unchanged following Orora's result.

For FY24, the broker continues to expect a slowdown in North America profitability, but there is upside risk with the company significantly expanding its sales-force to drive volume.

A&NZ is expected to accelerate in FY24, although to remain somewhat depressed in FY23 on weak wine glass volume. The first of a series of aluminium can capacity expansions comes on-line.

Neutral and $3.40 target retained.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: $0.07
If ORA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORA as Outperform (1) -

Both North American and Australia underpinned better than expected 1H23 results for Orora, with profits 5% ahead of Macquarie's expectations.

The company benefited from ongoing cost controls and improved distribution, resulting in improved margins

Looking ahead, the analyst sees the potential for "bolt-on acquisitions" with a robust balance sheet ($200m available to be used), as well as potential upside for wine volumes with a resolution to the China tariffs.

Macquarie raises earnings earnings forecasts by 4% and 5% for FY23 and FY24, respectively.

An Outperform rating is maintained the target lifted to $3.60 from $3.48.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: $0.27
If ORA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORA as Equal-weight (3) -

Orora delivered a strong first half, delivering 7% year-on-year earnings growth driven by 20% year-on-year earnings growth in North America. Morgan Stanley highlights the company expects to deliver high earnings over the year, despite a challenging operating environment.

While Orora is Morgan Stanley's preferred domestic packaging exposure, it does find the stock to be trading at a fair value following a result day share price rally. 

The Equal-weight rating is retained and the target price increases to $3.70 from $3.40. Industry view: In-line. 

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: $0.07
If ORA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ORA as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Pricing discipline and ongoing business optimisation were behind an improving North American margin and return on funds employed (ROFE) metric in the 1H, according to Morgans. 

Orora's result beat prior forecasts made by the analyst and consensus, with North American earnings (EBIT) rising by 20% (5% expected by Morgans), while Australasia's earnings fell by -3%.

Management retained FY23 guidance.The broker raises its target to $3.75 from $3.70 and upgrades its rating to Add from Hold.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: $0.42
If ORA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORA as Neutral (3) -

On further analysis, UBS remains attracted to Orora's defensive leverage to Australasian beverage packaging along with the ongoing margin recovery in northern America.

Nevertheless, capacity constraints in the short term, cost inflation and a more uncertain macro backdrop in the US could constrain earnings growth.

While lifting the target to $3.50 from $3.25, the broker retains a Neutral rating.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: $0.17
If ORA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ORG as Outperform (1) -

Origin Energy posted earnings -19% below Credit Suisse, with the first half disproportionately affected by coal supply issues. Based on year-to-date Octopus earnings and other factors, management expects Energy Markets FY earnings in the top half of guidance upgraded In January.

While Octopus is very promising, the broker suggests, it remains to be seen if the Retail Growth businesses can be net profitable, and nor would the broker assume that renewables/storage can earn a good margin/return when supply is dictated by extrinsic policy objectives rather than market prices.

Regardless, Outperform and $9.00 target retained.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $6.88 Difference: $2.12
If ORG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.29, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie found Origin Energy's H1 result rather disappointing (adjusted profit of $44m versus an estimated $203m), but then management strengthened forward guidance.

Operational cashflow proved another negative while dividend strength from APLNG pleased.

The Outperform rating has been retained because, simply put, Macquarie remains convinced Origin Energy, with or without suitors hanging around, is attractive for investors.

Price target has been lowered to $8.06 from 9 with Macquarie speculating about the company demerging assets in the absence of a bid.

Target price is $8.06 Current Price is $6.88 Difference: $1.18
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.29, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORG as Overweight (1) -

Origin Energy's first half result has proved weaker than Morgan Stanley had anticipated, but the broker anticipates a largely muted response. The company reaffirmed guidance provided in late January. 

Morgan Stanley expects policy uncertainty to remain a key issue for investors, but feels Origin Energy will be able to manage impacts. Elsewhere, the company has warned the New South Wales government intends to extend coal price caps to June 2024, which will likely pressure pricing for Origin Energy. 

The Overweight rating and target price of $8.88 are retained. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $8.88 Current Price is $6.88 Difference: $2
If ORG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.29, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORG as Hold (3) -

Underlying operating earnings were broadly flat in the first half, Ord Minnett notes. The result was close to expectations and full year estimates are largely unchanged.

The poor performance of the utility business was in line with expectations as electricity profit margins were hit by the higher cost of procuring electricity and fuel for power stations.

As this is a timing issue, earnings are expected to recover as retail electricity prices follow higher wholesale costs. Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating with an $8 target.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $6.88 Difference: $1.12
If ORG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.29, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORG as No Rating (-1) -

First half underlying net profit missed UBS estimates. There was a mismatch on the timing of rising wholesale electricity costs and the passing through to higher retail tariffs.

Guidance signals FY23 energy market operating earnings at the upper end of $600-730m, which excludes any benefit from coal price caps. Nevertheless, UBS suspects this will mitigate Origin Energy's recent challenges in terms of coal supply, as it can now access coal supply at $125/t until June 30, 2024.

Concerns remain about government policy risk/intervention and this is weighing on the share price, the broker adds. UBS remains restricted on rating and target.

Current Price is $6.88. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $8.29, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QBE as Outperform (1) -

Upon intial glance, it appears QBE Insurance's FY22 report met expectations, but then it had largely been pre-announced. Macquarie comments guidance for 2023 seems to be in line with its own and market forecasts as well.

The insurer's guidance consists of multiple items such as gross written premia and catastrophe allowances.

Macquarie's Outperform rating is based upon the ongoing strength of the global insurance pricing cycle alongside improving bond yields. That combination, says the broker, should provide ongoing support for QBE in the year ahead.

Target $14.20.

Target price is $14.20 Current Price is $13.40 Difference: $0.8
If QBE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.15, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates QBE as Buy (1) -

Following initial assessment of today's 2022 financials released by QBE Insurance, UBS finds earnings and dividend are well ahead of consensus forecasts.

In addition, the broker comments QBE management released "reasonable guidance" for the year ahead, broadly in line with consensus. Plus a new external reserving contract should provide comfort to the market, suggests the broker.

UBS does highlight the recent January reinsurance renewal implies less cover, as expected, but it's not seen as a major negative. Buy. Target $17.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $13.40 Difference: $3.6
If QBE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.15, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates RIC as Outperform (1) -

Ridley Corp reported a 13% year on year increase in first half earnings, ahead of Credit Suisse. In the broker's view, it is the mark of a strongly performing business if it can take a setback in its stride (wet weather) and still deliver strong growth and beat expectations.

The broker believes Ridley’s combination of top-line organic growth drivers and efficiency programs provide strong support for double-digit earnings growth on average over the next three years. Yesterday’s result only increases conviction.

Given the company's growth profile, minimal net debt and the optionality that a strong balance sheet brings, Credit Suisse does not see valuation as demanding. Outperform retained, target rises to $2.30 from $2.10.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $0.1
If RIC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIC as Buy (1) -

Upon further analysis UBS assesses Ridley Corp offers a few qualities that stand out such as good earnings visibility, relatively lower cyclicality and low leverage.

Two incremental earnings drivers are envisaged into the second half including $2m in incremental EBITDA from Project Boost and $3.5m stemming from Novacq moving into profit. Moderating this is a reduction in elevated rendering prices along with cost inflation.

UBS retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $2.50 from $2.35.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $0.3
If RIC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates S32 as Neutral (3) -

South32's underlying earnings beat Credit Suisse on lower central group costs and better profit from the third-party trading division. The interim dividend was better than expected.

Given uncontrollable external factors, South32 has done a commendable job on cost control, the broker suggests. Capex guidance has fallen by -8%.

Target rises to $4.50 from $4.40, Neutral retained.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.66 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.96, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie spotted a rather "mixed" H1 result from South32 with earnings better than but cash flow below expectations.

South32 did surprise with a higher-than-forecast dividend of US4.9c plus an additional US$50m for capital management.

Macquarie's forecasts suggest cashflow will remain "weak", only growing at 4% and the pace only increases to 7% at spot prices.

Minor changes only have been made to forecasts. Target $4.60 (unchanged). Neutral.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.66 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.96, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

South32 beat Morgan Stanley's expectations on profit and loss and cash items in the first half, but the company's capital management was the highlight for the broker. 

The company announced a first half dividend of US4.9c, an 11% beat to Morgan Stanley's assumption, alongside additional buybacks. Having already completed buybacks of US$143m in the first half, the company flagged a further US$50m in the second half.

The Overweight rating and target price of $4.95 are retained. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $4.95 Current Price is $4.66 Difference: $0.29
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.96, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates S32 as Add (1) -

South32's 1H comfortably beat Morgans expectations, largely due to currency, and while cost pressures remain, they were less than expected.

Underlying earnings (EBITDA) and underlying profits were beats of 6% and 14%, respectively, compared to consensus forecasts.

The Add rating is kept as the analyst notes an attractive discount to the unchanged $5.60 target price.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.66 Difference: $0.94
If S32 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.96, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGR as Buy (1) -

Following a change of analyst, UBS reviews forecasts across the sector. The impact of regulatory and compliance issues on Star Entertainment has meant the stock has dropped beyond valuation, which signals to UBS the potential upside is relatively strong.

There are a wide range of valuation scenarios, the broker contends, depending on the scale and form of the proposed NSW casino duty and the potential AUSTRAC fine. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $1.95 from $3.75.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $1.47 Difference: $0.48
If SGR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.20, suggesting upside of 47.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SHL as Neutral (3) -

Citi points out market expectations were low prior to the release of in-line 1H results by Sonic Healthcare, partly due to competitor trading updates.

EPS of 81cps in the 1H compares to the forecast by consensus for 82cps.

Especially in Australia, Sonic's base business is recovering faster than the rest of the market, and positive commentary on base margins provides reassurance, suggests the analyst.

Management expects the 2H (earnings) margin to approximate the 1H.

The broker notes ample capacity for acquisitions/new contracts or share buybacks and upgrades its FY23-25 EPS forecasts on higher margins. The target rises to $34.50 from $32.00. Neutral.

Target price is $34.50 Current Price is $33.20 Difference: $1.3
If SHL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.56, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SHL as Outperform (1) -

Sonic Healthcare reported a -40% year on year decline in underlying earnings due to a fall in covid revenues of -72%, Credit Suisse notes, but importantly is seeing a strong recovery in its base business.

Despite sluggish Medicare stats, the broker believes Sonic is outperforming the market due to its greater exposure to Specialist/Hospital channels versus GP referrals, which are seeing stronger pent-up demand. Credit Suisse expects this to continue with Sonic to gain further share.

Outperform and $37.50 target retained.

Target price is $37.50 Current Price is $33.20 Difference: $4.3
If SHL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.56, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SHL as Underperform (5) -

Sonic Healthcare's H1 performance slightly beat Macquarie, but proved in line with market consensus, comments the broker. No FY23 guidance was provided by management at the company.

Macquarie sees risk on the basis of comments delivered by peers. The broker's analysis suggests there's only modest growth on the agenda, maximum, with risks not abating, which creates question marks around the valuation.

Underperform retained, target gains 20c to $31.50.

Target price is $31.50 Current Price is $33.20 Difference: minus $1.7 (current price is over target).
If SHL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).