Australian Broker Call
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November 07, 2019
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
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Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| BLD - | BORAL | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | Citi |
| Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | UBS | ||
| PDL - | PENDAL GROUP | Upgrade to Add from Hold | Morgans |
| Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Macquarie | ||
| Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | UBS | ||
| REA - | REA GROUP | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Macquarie |
AHY ASALEO CARE LIMITED
Household & Personal Products
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Overnight Price: $0.98
Citi rates AHY as Buy (1) -
The company was recently awarded a contract in Victoria to supply feminine hygiene products in public schools, the first such move by a state. This contract is worth $5m in revenue and Citi estimates it could add 1.1% to operating earnings (EBITDA).
The broker lifts estimates by 2-3% for FY20-21, amid increasing confidence about the benefits from the company's improved marketing.
Asaleo Care now generates over half of its revenue from B2B customers such as hospitals and schools. Citi assesses this market is more fragmented and less sensitive to price than the retail market.
Buy rating maintained. Target rises to $1.10 from $1.05.
Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.98 Difference: $0.12
If AHY meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.07, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 4.50 cents and EPS of 7.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.7, implying annual growth of 24.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
APT AFTERPAY TOUCH GROUP LIMITED
Business & Consumer Credit
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Overnight Price: $26.20
UBS rates APT as Sell (5) -
UBS is adding Afterpay Touch to its Asia-Pacific key call list. While the stock has fallen -26% since its peak on October 15, the broker still envisages -36% downside to the $17.25 price target.
Furthermore, a number of risks have been identified including competition, regulation and execution. The broker highlights that this is a relatively new business and has not been tested through a full economic cycle. Sell maintained.
Target price is $17.25 Current Price is $26.20 Difference: minus $8.95 (current price is over target).
If APT meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $32.36, suggesting upside of 23.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 5.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 557.4. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 6.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.0, implying annual growth of 346.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 124.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.00
Citi rates BLD as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -
While the company maintained FY20 guidance, Citi notes a weak first half is placing increasing reliance on a strong second half.
While lead indicators have turned positive, underlying activity remains weak and management has had to deepen its cost reductions.
The broker downgrades to Neutral from Buy, envisaging few catalysts for the upside in the near term. Target is steady at $5.
Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $5.00 Difference: $0
If BLD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 21.50 cents and EPS of 31.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.1, implying annual growth of 47.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 36.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.3, implying annual growth of 9.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates BLD as No Rating (-1) -
Despite a weaker first half than expected, Boral has reaffirmed FY guidance, citing cost cuts as boosting the second half and a typical 46/54 earnings skew.
Macquarie has trimmed earnings forecasts but remains on research restriction.
Current Price is $5.00. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 37.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.1, implying annual growth of 47.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 38.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.3, implying annual growth of 9.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates BLD as Equal-weight (3) -
Morgan Stanley notes domestic trading is challenging and US earnings are trailing. The company has maintained guidance for a -5-15% decline in net profit in FY20 but the composition of guidance has been downgraded, in the broker's opinion.
Earnings pressure is expected to persist amid a more protracted slowdown in infrastructure coupled with further residential construction decline.
Morgan Stanley maintains an Equal-weight rating and $4.50 target. Industry view is Cautious.
Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $5.00 Difference: minus $0.5 (current price is over target).
If BLD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.1, implying annual growth of 47.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 37.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.3, implying annual growth of 9.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates BLD as Hold (3) -
The trading update disappointed Ord Minnett amid continuing concerns about the outlook for the North American division.
First quarter earnings were slightly lower year-on-year despite cost benefits and the prior corresponding quarter being affected by weather.
The broker envisages a risk that Boral will cut guidance as the year progresses and retains estimates at the lower end of the forecast fall in net profit of -5-15%. Hold rating maintained. Target is $4.80.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $5.00 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If BLD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 32.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.1, implying annual growth of 47.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 35.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.3, implying annual growth of 9.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates BLD as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -
UBS lowers its rating to Neutral from Buy as the stock is approaching the target. House prices are lifting and housing approvals appear to be bottoming but the next 12 months are still likely to experience a contraction ahead of a trough, in the broker's view.
US activity needs to pick up faster and Australian housing approvals lift further to regain confidence. Target is reduced to $4.90 from $5.20. Boral has reiterated FY20 net profit guidance to be -5-15% below FY19.
Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $5.00 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If BLD meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.1, implying annual growth of 47.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.3, implying annual growth of 9.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CTD CORPORATE TRAVEL MANAGEMENT LIMITED
Travel, Leisure & Tourism
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Overnight Price: $20.00
Credit Suisse rates CTD as Outperform (1) -
The company has reaffirmed FY20 guidance for operating earnings (EBITDA) of $165-175m. Commentary was broadly in line with Credit Suisse forecasts and the broker assesses the valuation remains compelling.
The investor briefing signalled localisation and speed to market are important points of differentiation for the business. Outperform rating and $27 target maintained.
Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $20.00 Difference: $7
If CTD meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.65, suggesting upside of 33.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 46.64 cents and EPS of 96.79 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.2, implying annual growth of 25.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 58.60 cents and EPS of 114.29 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 116.8, implying annual growth of 16.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates CTD as Overweight (1) -
The company has reaffirmed FY20 operating earnings guidance of $165-175m. Morgan Stanley believes the guidance is achievable, noting Europe is performing better and Asia and Australia are tracking in line with expectations.
The US appears to be weaker than previously expected but the second half is likely to benefit from client wins and cost reductions.
Overweight rating. Target is $31. In-Line industry view.
Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $20.00 Difference: $11
If CTD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.65, suggesting upside of 33.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 106.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.2, implying annual growth of 25.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 125.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 116.8, implying annual growth of 16.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates CTD as Add (1) -
Trading in the second quarter appears to have improved while the company has reiterated FY20 guidance for 10-16.5% growth in operating earnings.
Morgans considers the stock has a long-dated growth profile stemming from gaining market share and optimising its technology.
However, a material re-rating may take time and require sustained improvement in operating conditions. Key catalysts include a lessening of geopolitical uncertainty. The broker maintains an Add rating and $23.40 target.
Target price is $23.40 Current Price is $20.00 Difference: $3.4
If CTD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.65, suggesting upside of 33.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 96.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.2, implying annual growth of 25.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 52.00 cents and EPS of 112.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 116.8, implying annual growth of 16.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
DHG DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED
Real Estate
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Overnight Price: $3.21
Macquarie rates DHG as Neutral (3) -
Ahead of REA Group's quarterly report tomorrow, and Domain Group's AGM next week, Macquarie has increased its real estate ad volume decline expectations in the first half to -12% from a prior -7.5% given data confirmation weak conditions have persisted into FY20.
The broker does see volumes ticking up down the track but for now retains Neutral on Domain. A lowering of the broker's risk free rate assumption increases the target to $3.20 from $2.90.
Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.21 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If DHG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.97, suggesting downside of -7.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 7.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.2. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 10.70 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.9, implying annual growth of 30.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FNP FREEDOM FOODS GROUP LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $5.19
Citi rates FNP as Buy (1) -
Citi observes Freedom Foods is in the late stages of a large-scale transformation to a branded and high-value dairy ingredient producer from below-margin contract manufacturer.
Higher returns are expected as nutritionals expand, UHT volumes ramp up and branded product sales grow.
The broker believes the agreement to manufacture UHT milk for Mengniu is significant as it provides exposure to one of China's largest dairy companies. Buy rating and $5.90 target maintained.
Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $5.19 Difference: $0.71
If FNP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.05, suggesting upside of 16.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of 217.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.8. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.50 cents and EPS of 21.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.3, implying annual growth of 63.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.34
Credit Suisse rates GNC as No Rating (-1) -
Credit Suisse updates estimates ahead of the FY19 results on November 14 as well as to incorporate FY20 estimates for recent crop data.
The broker suspects investors will be looking for a cleaner trading result in FY20 as FY19 has been affected by poor grain trading outcomes.
Credit Suisse cannot provide a rating or target at present.
Current Price is $7.34. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $8.90, suggesting upside of 21.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of minus 37.27 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -30.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 7.21 cents and EPS of 19.17 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $6.54
Credit Suisse rates IGO as Underperform (5) -
Credit Suisse suspects any acquisition of Panoramic Resources ((PAN)) would be a low-risk option, securing nickel as a core business.
The offer is conditional on due diligence, which Credit Suisse considers essential given the management instability at Panoramic Resources.
The synergies lie with Savannah, which is at the centre of an extensive exploration position controlled by Independence Group. Underperform rating and $4.65 target maintained.
Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $6.54 Difference: minus $1.89 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.05, suggesting downside of -7.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 34.81 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.9, implying annual growth of 194.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 25.26 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.2, implying annual growth of -4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.14
Citi rates MPL as Neutral (3) -
Medibank Private has highlighted higher claims inflation. Citi lowers estimates for FY20 by -10%, factoring in the claims inflation estimate of 2.8% and allowing for a similar level in future years.
The broker partially offsets this by lifting forecast premium rate increases and allowing for a slightly better cost performance. Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $3.30 from $3.60.
Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.14 Difference: $0.16
If MPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.99, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 11.50 cents and EPS of 13.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.5, implying annual growth of -13.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.50 cents and EPS of 14.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of 2.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates MPL as Underperform (5) -
Medibank Private has noted claims experience in recent months has been higher than expected. This will likely lead to reserve increases in the first half and a lower gross margin, Credit Suisse assesses.
The stock has underperformed the market by -15% over the last four months but the broker believes it has not pulled back far enough. Underperform rating and $2.90 target maintained.
Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $3.14 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.99, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.5, implying annual growth of -13.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of 2.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates MPL as Underperform (5) -
Medibank Private would give an arm and a leg to see claims growth reverse, but has warned elevated claims are expected to continue through FY20. Macquarie's industry contacts suggest this trend is market-wide.
If the claims cycle has indeed turned for the worse, the broker foresees a PE de-rating for the private healthcare sector in general. For Medibank, the exit of the Garrison contract and unwinding of prothesis reforms suggest downside risk to the dividend, the broker warns.
Underperform retained, target falls to $2.85 from $2.90.
Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $3.14 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.99, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.30 cents and EPS of 14.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.5, implying annual growth of -13.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.50 cents and EPS of 15.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of 2.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates MPL as Equal-weight (3) -
Morgan Stanley believes the downgrade to expectations based on higher claims inflation demands caution.
The broker notes it has taken over four months to finalise FY19 claims, which the company asserts is stemming from a slowing payment pattern. The business experienced growth in higher-value cases.
Morgan Stanley also suggests the current backdrop makes the case for hikes in premiums difficult.
Equal-weight maintained. Target is reduced to $3.00 from $3.15. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.14 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.99, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.10 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.5, implying annual growth of -13.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 13.90 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of 2.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates MPL as Hold (3) -
Medibank Private has revised the FY20 outlook as higher claims have lead to a top up in provisions. Morgans downgrades FY20-21 estimates by -5-9%.
The broker continues to like the exposure to structural growth but acknowledges the headwinds in the near term.
Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $3.11 from $3.41.
Target price is $3.11 Current Price is $3.14 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.99, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.60 cents and EPS of 15.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.5, implying annual growth of -13.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.30 cents and EPS of 14.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of 2.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates MPL as Lighten (4) -
Medibank Private has highlighted pressure on margins and blamed the government's failure to come through on prosthetics savings. Lengthening payment patterns from hospitals may also have led to an increase in reserve allowance.
Ord Minnett's FY20 margins are now 7.2%, which assumes Medibank Private will make substantial remediation efforts in the second half. Lighten maintained. Target is reduced to $3.05 from $3.22.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $3.14 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.99, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.5, implying annual growth of -13.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of 2.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates MPL as Sell (5) -
The company has flagged higher hospital claims inflation which drives a lower margin outlook in FY20. Medibank Private's revised assessment of underlying inflation has lifted to 2.8% from 2.0%.
While the business is managing costs well, UBS envisages margins and earnings heading lower in FY20 and FY21. Sell rating and $2.75 target maintained.
The higher than expected claims since June relate predominantly to higher private hospital payments and as a result FY19 claims reserves were under-provisioned.
Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $3.14 Difference: minus $0.39 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.99, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.5, implying annual growth of -13.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of 2.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $6.90
Ord Minnett rates NHF as Hold (3) -
In response to Medibank Private's guidance downgrade, nib Holdings has indicated steady FY20 guidance but also cited reserve increases. Ord Minnett reduces estimates by -4% for FY20 and -2% for FY21 nonetheless.
The broker maintains a Hold rating and reduces the target to $7.15 from $7.21.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $7.15 Current Price is $6.90 Difference: $0.25
If NHF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.56, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.7, implying annual growth of 2.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.7, implying annual growth of 3.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $6.35
Morgan Stanley rates NUF as Overweight (1) -
The company has alleged that BASF's Omega-3 infringes its patents and the case being heard in the US state of Virginia has found in favour of Nufarm on a majority of claims.
Morgan Stanley expects either an order for BASF to quit producing Omega-3 canola oil or pay royalties to Nufarm.
Overweight rating and Cautious industry view. Target is $7.20.
Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $6.35 Difference: $0.85
If NUF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.58, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.0, implying annual growth of 278.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.0, implying annual growth of 32.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PDL PENDAL GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $7.93
Credit Suisse rates PDL as Neutral (3) -
FY19 net profit was slightly ahead of Credit Suisse forecasts. While the outlook has improved, the broker notes there are still near-term risks. Performance fees are expected to remain low in FY20 and investments in growth initiatives continue.
The broker envisages no need to chase the stock at current levels and maintains a Neutral rating. Target is raised to $8.40 from $7.20.
Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $7.93 Difference: $0.47
If PDL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.23, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.3, implying annual growth of -2.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 53.00 cents and EPS of 62.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.5, implying annual growth of 6.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates PDL as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
Pendal Group's full-year result was broadly in line with consensus, leading to a sigh of relief from the market. FY20 is expected to be impacted by lower JOHCM performance fees and a higher compensation ratio, offset by lower tax.
The stock has made a comeback of late on signs of funds flow improvement, and at 16.7x is only -1% below its five-year PE average.
Macquarie thus downgrades to Neutral from Outperform, while still preferring Pendal, along with Janus Henderson ((JHG)), in the space. Earnings forecasts downgraded but target unchanged at $8.25.
Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $7.93 Difference: $0.32
If PDL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.23, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 41.50 cents and EPS of 48.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.3, implying annual growth of -2.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 45.50 cents and EPS of 53.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.5, implying annual growth of 6.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates PDL as Overweight (1) -
As the stock is trading around 12.5x FY21 cash P/E ratio Morgan Stanley believes risks of further Brexit-related outflows are priced in. Moreover, with potential resolution now more likely the outlook should improve.
In the US, meanwhile, niche opportunities remain which the broker considers are significant. Overweight rating. Target is raised to $9.00 from $8.80. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.93 Difference: $1.07
If PDL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.23, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 59.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.3, implying annual growth of -2.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 53.50 cents and EPS of 60.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.5, implying annual growth of 6.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates PDL as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -
FY19 net profit was down -19% and in line with expectations. The weaker result was primarily driven by a step-down in performance fees.
There remains a risk of meaningful outflows in EU funds but on a 12-month view Morgans envisages upside from improved sentiment towards the UK.
The broker upgrades to Add from Hold on valuation. Target is raised to $8.85 from $7.96.
Target price is $8.85 Current Price is $7.93 Difference: $0.92
If PDL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.23, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 52.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.3, implying annual growth of -2.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.5, implying annual growth of 6.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates PDL as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -
FY19 results were largely in line with UBS estimates. Hence, the rally in the share price appears overdone, particularly on the back of the outlook for higher FY20 costs.
The broker commends the medium-term focus on strategic growth but notes elevated costs come at a time when JO Hambro's revenue growth prospects are more constrained.
Rating is downgraded to Sell from Neutral and the target is raised to $7.45 from $6.90.
Target price is $7.45 Current Price is $7.93 Difference: minus $0.48 (current price is over target).
If PDL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $8.23, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 43.00 cents and EPS of 50.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.3, implying annual growth of -2.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 52.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.5, implying annual growth of 6.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.23
Ord Minnett rates PPH as Lighten (4) -
In the wake of the first half results, Ord Minnett continues to believe the company is facing an increasingly mature and competitive market. The broker is cautious about the long-term potential for cash generation.
The company expects gross margin, at 65% in the first half, will stabilise at current levels. FY20 guidance has been reiterated. Ord Minnett maintains a Lighten rating and reduces the target to $2.77 from $2.80.
Target price is $2.77 Current Price is $3.23 Difference: minus $0.46 (current price is over target).
If PPH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.77, suggesting downside of -14.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.14 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.9. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.56 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.8, implying annual growth of 49.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates PPH as Buy (1) -
First half results were solid, UBS assesses. The broker believes it will take time for the front book growth to materialise but lead-based marketing and new products are expected to stimulate customer acquisition in FY21.
The broker assesses there is potential upside from good cost control and increases the target to NZ$3.75 from NZ$3.65. Buy rating maintained.
Current Price is $3.23. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $2.77, suggesting downside of -14.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.56 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.9. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.42 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.8, implying annual growth of 49.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $12.67
Ord Minnett rates QBE as Accumulate (2) -
The UK Prudential Regulation Authority has written to insurance companies to express concerns about reserves in the long-tail business and the process by which management is influencing reserve assumptions.
Ord Minnett suspects this could lead to more caution regarding the pace of recovery of QBE Insurance Europe's margin. Hold rating and $13 target maintained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $12.67 Difference: $0.33
If QBE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.84, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 48.53 cents and EPS of 87.07 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 74.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 52.81 cents and EPS of 88.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.2, implying annual growth of -2.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 81.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $106.77
Macquarie rates REA as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
Ahead of REA Group's quarterly report tomorrow, and Domain Group's AGM next week, the broker has increased its real estate ad volume decline expectations in the first half to -12% from a prior -7.5% given data confirmation weak conditions have persisted into FY20.
The broker does see volumes ticking up down the track but for now downgrades REA to Neutral from Outperform. A lowering of the broker's risk free rate assumption increases the target to $109 from $107.
Target price is $109.00 Current Price is $106.77 Difference: $2.23
If REA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $97.76, suggesting downside of -8.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 128.00 cents and EPS of 255.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 267.0, implying annual growth of 235.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 130.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 154.00 cents and EPS of 307.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 305.7, implying annual growth of 14.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 153.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
RHC RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED
Healthcare services
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Overnight Price: $71.72
Morgan Stanley rates RHC as Equal-weight (3) -
Morgan Stanley envisages some small upside risk to Australian hospital revenue forecasts in the wake of Medibank Private's update regarding claims inflation.
The broker notes uncertainty exists for the longer term, as new contract pricing arrangements are yet to be agreed between Ramsay Health and the insurers.
Moreover, the broker considers further reform is needed on prosthesis funding and other inflationary pressures.
Equal-weight rating retained. Target is $61. Industry view is In-Line.
Target price is $61.00 Current Price is $71.72 Difference: minus $10.72 (current price is over target).
If RHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $68.67, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 168.80 cents and EPS of 297.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 294.8, implying annual growth of 11.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 159.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 176.50 cents and EPS of 309.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 314.6, implying annual growth of 6.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 168.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates RHC as Neutral (3) -
Recent feedback from unlisted hospital operators indicates a mixed operating environment and a likely continuation of the more subdued trends, UBS notes.
Medibank Private ((MPL)) has indicated it is yet to finalise a new agreement with Ramsay Health so the broker maintains current Australian pricing assumptions. Neutral rating. Target rises to $71.00 from $68.40.
Target price is $71.00 Current Price is $71.72 Difference: minus $0.72 (current price is over target).
If RHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $68.67, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 152.00 cents and EPS of 305.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 294.8, implying annual growth of 11.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 159.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 157.00 cents and EPS of 324.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 314.6, implying annual growth of 6.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 168.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.72
Credit Suisse rates S32 as Outperform (1) -
The company has announced a deal to sell South African Energy Coal to Seriti. Credit Suisse expects this will remove any perceived overhang for those awaiting the exit from the business.
South32 will receive US$7m once the transaction completes and 49% of free cash flow generated from date of completion of the sale to March 2024 capped at SAR1.5bn. Outperform rating and $3.20 target maintained.
Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.72 Difference: $0.48
If S32 meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.02, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 7.61 cents and EPS of 19.08 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 9.04 cents and EPS of 22.57 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.6, implying annual growth of 33.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates S32 as Underperform (5) -
South32 has sold its stake in South Africa Energy Coal for a modest consideration but ongoing profit share to 2024. Macquarie sees the sale as a long term positive, providing upside risk to free cash flow out to that date.
However on the broker's forecasts, SAEC is loss-making, and were current spot prices to be used, there is -30% risk to South32 earnings forecasts. Underperform and $2.30 target retained.
Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.72 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.02, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 7.57 cents and EPS of 18.98 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 6.99 cents and EPS of 17.56 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.6, implying annual growth of 33.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -
South32 has indicated it will exit South Africa Energy Coal, forging a deal to sell the business under a profit sharing arrangement. Several approvals are still pending.
Morgan Stanley believes a clean divestment would be well received by the market, particularly as there is no valuation impact on base case scenarios.
The broker maintains an Overweight rating and $3.50 target. Industry view is Attractive.
Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.72 Difference: $0.78
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.02, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 11.42 cents and EPS of 12.85 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 17.13 cents and EPS of 17.13 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.6, implying annual growth of 33.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.66
Credit Suisse rates VCX as Neutral (3) -
The company has divested two non-core assets for $195.5m at a -0.5% discount to book value. The sale makes sense to Credit Suisse given the stock continues to trade at a discount to the last-stated net tangible asset value.
While the asset sales are dilutive, the broker believes the improvement in the portfolio quality is an offset. Neutral rating and $2.55 target maintained.
Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $2.66 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If VCX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.55, suggesting downside of -4.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of 95.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.1, implying annual growth of 2.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates VCX as Underperform (5) -
Vicinity Centres has sold two assets at book value, albeit -10-20% below December 2017 valuation. The sales will dilute earnings but are positive for gearing, Macquarie notes, as well as improving the quality of the portfolio, as is Vicinity's goal.
Yet asset value risk remains to the downside, dividends are declining in FY20, growth is limited in FY21 and there is a risk of further dilutive asset sales. Underperform retained, target unchanged at $2.34.
Target price is $2.34 Current Price is $2.66 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If VCX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.55, suggesting downside of -4.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 15.50 cents and EPS of 16.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of 95.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 15.70 cents and EPS of 16.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.1, implying annual growth of 2.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates VCX as Underweight (5) -
Morgan Stanley notes Vicinity Centres has sold two non-core assets for $195.5m. This has done little to alleviate the broker's concern about the retail headwinds.
The company has lowered FY20 guidance to 17.6c from 17.8c per security to reflect the high-yielding nature of the two assets.
The broker maintains an Underweight rating and $2.45 target. Industry view is In-Line.
Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.66 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If VCX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.55, suggesting downside of -4.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 15.80 cents and EPS of 17.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of 95.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 16.40 cents and EPS of 18.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.1, implying annual growth of 2.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates VCX as Hold (3) -
The company has sold two non-core assets which reduces its owned assets to 60. Ord Minnett believes around 40 is a more desirable number as the company is intent on increasing its weighting to flagship assets.
Sales also provide development funding for key assets. The broker forecasts an additional 1-2 asset sales per half year as the portfolio improvement strategy is ongoing. Hold rating and $2.80 target maintained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.66 Difference: $0.14
If VCX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.55, suggesting downside of -4.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of 95.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.1, implying annual growth of 2.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
| AHY | ASALEO CARE | $0.98 | Citi | 1.10 | 1.05 | 4.76% |
| BLD | BORAL | $5.00 | UBS | 4.90 | 5.20 | -5.77% |
| DHG | DOMAIN HOLDINGS | $3.21 | Macquarie | 3.20 | 2.90 | 10.34% |
| GNC | GRAINCORP | $7.34 | Credit Suisse | N/A | 9.04 | -100.00% |
| MPL | MEDIBANK PRIVATE | $3.14 | Citi | 3.30 | 3.60 | -8.33% |
| Macquarie | 2.85 | 2.90 | -1.72% | |||
| Morgan Stanley | 3.00 | 3.15 | -4.76% | |||
| Morgans | 3.11 | 3.41 | -8.80% | |||
| Ord Minnett | 3.05 | 3.22 | -5.28% | |||
| NHF | NIB HOLDINGS | $6.90 | Ord Minnett | 7.15 | 7.21 | -0.83% |
| PDL | PENDAL GROUP | $7.93 | Credit Suisse | 8.40 | 7.20 | 16.67% |
| Morgan Stanley | 9.00 | 8.80 | 2.27% | |||
| Morgans | 8.85 | 7.96 | 11.18% | |||
| UBS | 7.45 | 6.90 | 7.97% | |||
| PPH | PUSHPAY HOLDINGS | $3.23 | Ord Minnett | 2.77 | 2.80 | -1.07% |
| REA | REA GROUP | $106.77 | Macquarie | 109.00 | 107.00 | 1.87% |
| RHC | RAMSAY HEALTH CARE | $71.72 | UBS | 71.00 | 68.40 | 3.80% |
| VCX | VICINITY CENTRES | $2.66 | Morgan Stanley | 2.45 | N/A | - |
Summaries
| AHY | ASALEO CARE | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $0.98 |
| APT | AFTERPAY TOUCH | Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $26.20 |
| BLD | BORAL | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $5.00 |
| No Rating - Macquarie | Overnight Price $5.00 | ||
| Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $5.00 | ||
| Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $5.00 | ||
| Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $5.00 | ||
| CTD | CORPORATE TRAVEL | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $20.00 |
| Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $20.00 | ||
| Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $20.00 | ||
| DHG | DOMAIN HOLDINGS | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.21 |
| FNP | FREEDOM FOODS | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $5.19 |
| GNC | GRAINCORP | No Rating - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $7.34 |
| IGO | INDEPENDENCE GROUP | Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $6.54 |
| MPL | MEDIBANK PRIVATE | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $3.14 |
| Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $3.14 | ||
| Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.14 | ||
| Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.14 | ||
| Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $3.14 | ||
| Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.14 | ||
| Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $3.14 | ||
| NHF | NIB HOLDINGS | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $6.90 |
| NUF | NUFARM | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $6.35 |
| PDL | PENDAL GROUP | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $7.93 |
| Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $7.93 | ||
| Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $7.93 | ||
| Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $7.93 | ||
| Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $7.93 | ||
| PPH | PUSHPAY HOLDINGS | Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.23 |
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $3.23 | ||
| QBE | QBE INSURANCE | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $12.67 |
| REA | REA GROUP | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $106.77 |
| RHC | RAMSAY HEALTH CARE | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $71.72 |
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $71.72 | ||
| S32 | SOUTH32 | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.72 |
| Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.72 | ||
| Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.72 | ||
| VCX | VICINITY CENTRES | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.66 |
| Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.66 | ||
| Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.66 | ||
| Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.66 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 11 |
| 2. Accumulate | 1 |
| 3. Hold | 16 |
| 4. Reduce | 2 |
| 5. Sell | 9 |
Thursday 07 November 2019
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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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