Australian Broker Call

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November 29, 2018

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
CSR - CSR Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight Morgan Stanley
LNK - LINK ADMINISTRATION Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Credit Suisse
WES - WESFARMERS Downgrade to Lighten from Hold Ord Minnett
ALL  ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED

Gaming

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Overnight Price: $25.47

Macquarie rates ALL as Outperform (1) -

The FY18 result missed Macquarie's expectations amid higher costs. Growth was slower than the broker expected in the second half but the company still continued to take share in Class II and Class III.

The broker expects adjacencies should materialise in FY19. Surprisingly, segment profit margins were compressed in the second half despite growth in higher-margin gaming operations.

The company only provided qualitative guidance, expecting continued growth and expansion in North America.

Outperform rating and $34 target maintained.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $25.47 Difference: $8.53
If ALL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.29, suggesting upside of 38.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 150.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 140.1, implying annual growth of 22.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 66.00 cents and EPS of 162.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 155.4, implying annual growth of 10.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AMI  AURELIA METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $0.68

Macquarie rates AMI as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (1) -

Aurelia Metals is expected to produce around 200,000 ounces per annum of gold equivalent over the next three years following the Peak acquisition.

Declining capital expenditure is expected to significantly improve free cash flow, with Macquarie calculating the free cash flow yield will rise to around 18% in FY20/21.

Costs are expected to halve over time because of increases in the base metal by-product revenue.

Macquarie initiates coverage with an Outperform rating and $0.90 target.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.68 Difference: $0.22
If AMI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.71.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.94.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGF  CHALLENGER LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $9.83

Ord Minnett rates CGF as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett observes the recent PE re-rating was driven by an expectation of future growth from legislative change and expansion in distribution for annuity products.

However, the broker believes the quest for growth has pressured margins to the point where return on equity is not covering the cost of capital.

The incoming CEO is expected to address the situation immediately but, in turn, this may create a headwind for the growth lever.

A Lighten rating is maintained and the target lowered to $8.00 from $9.55, to reflect reduced growth prospects.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $9.83 Difference: minus $1.83 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.48, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 64.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.9, implying annual growth of 18.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 69.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.8, implying annual growth of 7.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CKF  COLLINS FOODS LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $7.22

Deutsche Bank rates CKF as Buy (1) -

The company experienced a strong rebound in sales in the first half, driven by a recovery in Western Australia and traction on menu and delivery initiatives.

Margins in Australia were ahead of Deutsche Bank's estimates while weak European margins reflected the investment currently underway.

The broker consider the European opportunity highly attractive and likely to drive earnings growth over the medium term.

Target is raised to $7.50 from $6.30. Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $7.22 Difference: $0.28
If CKF meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.40, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.0, implying annual growth of 37.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Forecast for FY20:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.8, implying annual growth of 9.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates CKF as Hold (3) -

Collins Foods' result was in line with the broker thanks to stronger KFC margins at home offsetting a softer performance in Europe. Looking ahead, the company expects to roll out its delivery offering to 100 domestic stores over the next six months and to continue working on improvements in Europe.

Revisions to expectations in both regions see the broker trim earnings forecasts and its target to $6.90 from $6.92. Despite the optionality offered by KFC Europe and by Taco Bell the broker sees the current trading multiple a fair value. Hold retained.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $7.22 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If CKF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.40, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.0, implying annual growth of 37.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.8, implying annual growth of 9.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates CKF as Buy (1) -

First half results beat UBS estimates and KFC Australia impressed with operating earnings growth of 24%, supported by 14% growth in stores. An unusually hot summer in Europe affected sales, down -2.5%.

In the medium term the broker expects both the Australian Taco Bell business and KFC Europe will enjoy operating leverage from an increasing number of stores, based on relatively fixed corporate costs and improved operations in Germany.

No earnings guidance was provided. The broker maintains a Buy rating and raises the target to $7.80 from $6.30.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $7.22 Difference: $0.58
If CKF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.40, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 18.70 cents and EPS of 38.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.0, implying annual growth of 37.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 20.90 cents and EPS of 43.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.8, implying annual growth of 9.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CMW  CROMWELL PROPERTY GROUP

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $1.03

Macquarie rates CMW as Underperform (5) -

The company has announced an equity raising to pay down debt and fund the CEREIT acquisition. The $300m equity raising will be via a rights issue. Macquarie calculates this is around -5% dilutive to FY19 earnings in isolation.

However the downside to FY20 is more severe, largely reflecting EUR1.1bn in mandates that are due to expire in 2019. As the profit base is still declining the broker believes there is pressure on the distribution.

Underperform rating is maintained. Target is reduced to $0.98 from $1.

Target price is $0.98 Current Price is $1.03 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If CMW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.04, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 7.30 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.7, implying annual growth of -29.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 6.60 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.5, implying annual growth of -2.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COL  COLES GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $12.45

Ord Minnett rates COL as Initiation of coverage with Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett believes the food retail industry is improving while liquor earnings should grow off a low base. The broker believes Coles is somewhat defensive and provides some appeal but the valuation is not attractive.

Ord Minnett initiates coverage with a Hold rating and $13.25 target. Significant cost savings are considered long dated, requiring food inflation to drive earnings growth.

Meanwhile, convenience earnings continue to decline on the back of fuel prices and volumes.

Target price is $13.25 Current Price is $12.45 Difference: $0.8
If COL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.02, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 72.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 75.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.5, implying annual growth of 4.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CRN  CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES

Coal

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Overnight Price: $3.07

Credit Suisse rates CRN as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (1) -

Coronado Global Resources is a metallurgical coal business with a diversified footprint. Credit Suisse believes all 2019 financial metrics screen cheap, with the company trading on a dividend yield of 18%.

The main financial risk is around prevailing coal prices. Current fundamentals appear compelling although liquidity risk is a material headwind.

Credit Suisse initiates coverage with an Outperform rating and $4.10 target.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.07 Difference: $1.03
If CRN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.36 cents and EPS of 46.78 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.56.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 55.22 cents and EPS of 56.01 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 17.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.48.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL  CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences

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Overnight Price: $180.64

Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley believes the entry into the transplant market would leverage the company's core expertise in re-purposing existing products.

CSL has two new markets targeted for 2020-23, including Berinert in acute transplant rejection and Clazakizumab in chronic transplant rejection.

Morgan Stanley calculates the implementation of transplant projects makes up around $12 a share of its bull case. CSL112, which is higher risk but, potentially, also higher reward, is currently $25 of the $264 bull case valuation.

Transplant prospects and CSL112 dominate the outlook and are considered key to slowing down the declining return on equity. Equal-weight and $189 target retained. Industry view: In line.

Target price is $189.00 Current Price is $180.64 Difference: $8.36
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $213.33, suggesting upside of 18.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 256.54 cents and EPS of 555.85 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 593.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 268.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.5.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 282.41 cents and EPS of 608.66 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 675.0, implying annual growth of 13.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 305.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates CSL as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett has reviewed the potential of the emerging transplant franchise. The broker assesses a US$1bn market opportunity that should support growth in the medium term as other therapies mature or face competitive challenges.

The broker does not revise estimates at this point, given the uncertainty in what will clearly be a competitive area. Accumulate rating and $215 target maintained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $215.00 Current Price is $180.64 Difference: $34.36
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $213.33, suggesting upside of 18.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 269.98 cents and EPS of 582.52 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 593.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 268.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.5.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 317.86 cents and EPS of 691.58 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 675.0, implying annual growth of 13.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 305.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSR  CSR LIMITED

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $3.13

Deutsche Bank rates CSR as Buy (1) -

CSR will sell Viridian Glass for $155m. The company will retain the property at Ingleburn, leased to Viridian. Following completion of the transaction a sale process for the property will commence.

Deutsche Bank is positive about the divestment, as it enables the company to exit a structurally challenged industry and allow management to focus on the core business.

The broker retains a Buy rating and $3.80 target.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.13 Difference: $0.67
If CSR meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.67, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.2, implying annual growth of -19.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2.

Forecast for FY20:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.9, implying annual growth of -6.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates CSR as Outperform (1) -

The company will sell Viridian Glass to Crescent Capital for $155m. The transaction excludes the Ingleburn property, which will be put up for sale subsequently. The deal will mean CSR exits glass.

Macquarie observes this will provide more balance sheet capacity while the prospect of capital management exists down the track.

The broker raises the target to $4.60 from $4.40. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.13 Difference: $1.47
If CSR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.67, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 36.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.2, implying annual growth of -19.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 25.50 cents and EPS of 34.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.9, implying annual growth of -6.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates CSR as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -

Morgan Stanley observes the sale of Viridian Glass ends a difficult chapter for CSR. Cash flow may facilitate future capital management although concerns around Australian housing and aluminium makes the broker cautious.

CSR has sold its Viridian business for $155m and a future sale of the property is estimated to deliver $60m. While the sale removes one issue, the broker suggests other pressures are now mounting.

Rating is downgraded to Underweight from Equal-weight. Target is reduced to $3.00 from $3.75. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.13 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If CSR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.67, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.2, implying annual growth of -19.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.9, implying annual growth of -6.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DCG  DECMIL GROUP LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $0.67

Citi rates DCG as Buy (1) -

Revenue is expected to more than double by FY20 on Citi's estimates although there is risk that project execution and margins could be negatively affected by faster-than-expected growth.

The broker lowers margin assumptions by -20-30 basis points to reflect the risks in project delivery. The broker believes the company needs to invest in additional staffing and systems to maintain growth.

Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $1.10 from $1.18.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.67 Difference: $0.43
If DCG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.44.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 9.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.28.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DOW  DOWNER EDI LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $6.37

Macquarie rates DOW as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes the recent sell-off in the shares is overdone. The share price weakness reflects delays to the Royal Adelaide Hospital as well as sector concerns after the engineering problems at Lendlease ((LLC)) and the administration of RCR Tomlinson ((RCR)).

However, Macquarie asserts Downer has a good track record of risk management and benefits from scale and diversity and, over time, fewer competitors should lead to more rationality in the industry.

Outperform rating and $8.01 target maintained.

Target price is $8.01 Current Price is $6.37 Difference: $1.64
If DOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.95, suggesting upside of 24.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 51.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.3, implying annual growth of 360.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 57.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.9, implying annual growth of 11.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FMG  FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $4.03

Ord Minnett rates FMG as Accumulate (2) -

After a site visit, Ord Minnett believes the market should be more confident in the company's mine plan and ability to extract the benefits of the new high-grade product, which it estimates could add up to US$500m per annum in revenue.

Ord Minnett maintains an Accumulate rating based on the attractive valuation metrics, but acknowledges the iron ore price backdrop and move towards risk-off sentiment could be near-term headwinds. Target is $5.50.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.03 Difference: $1.47
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.63, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 29.26 cents and EPS of 46.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 27.93 cents and EPS of 47.88 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.9, implying annual growth of -2.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HT1  HT&E LIMITED

Out of Home Advertising

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Overnight Price: $1.87

Citi rates HT1 as Neutral (3) -

After the sale of Adshel, the company is now a much smaller radio business. The broker believes the company is in a position to make significant acquisitions, funded by cash/debt, or conduct a buyback even after paying out its full tax liability.

Still, Citi is wary of radio trends heading into 2019 and maintains a Neutral rating. Target is raised to $1.90 from $1.74.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.87 Difference: $0.03
If HT1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.51, suggesting upside of 34.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 8.60 cents and EPS of 14.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 11.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.90 cents and EPS of 14.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of 7.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IVC  INVOCARE LIMITED

Consumer Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $11.91

Morgan Stanley rates IVC as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley observes 2018 is turning out to be messy. Earnings are clouded by accounting issues, refurbishments and M&A. The broker reduces forecasts following the October downgrade, given an accelerated decline in the number of deaths in June-August.

A soft finish to 2018 will mean easier comparables will be cycled in 2019. Morgan Stanley reduces the target to $12.00 from $12.60. Rating is Equal-weight. In-Line industry view.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $11.91 Difference: $0.09
If IVC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.73, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 40.50 cents and EPS of 47.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.8, implying annual growth of -45.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 43.00 cents and EPS of 52.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.0, implying annual growth of 12.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JBH  JB HI-FI LIMITED

Consumer Electronics

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Overnight Price: $23.36

Citi rates JBH as Sell (5) -

Citi reiterates a Sell rating and $21.30 target, post the trading update from rival Harvey Norman ((HVN)). The broker believes JB Hi-Fi will be hard pressed to print positive sales numbers in the December quarter given it is cycling 10% growth from the corresponding quarter in FY18.

Smart phones are now likely declining as a category, as the replacement cycle pushes out towards 4-5 years. The broker also suspects the business is losing share in TV.

Target price is $21.30 Current Price is $23.36 Difference: minus $2.06 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.62, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 132.00 cents and EPS of 202.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 208.2, implying annual growth of 2.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 136.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 112.00 cents and EPS of 172.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 205.1, implying annual growth of -1.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 134.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LNK  LINK ADMINISTRATION HOLDINGS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $7.03

Credit Suisse rates LNK as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

The company has had an eventful 18 months, with several large acquisitions, equity raising and regulatory changes. Credit Suisse estimates that M&A is the largest driver of growth and PEXA the most significant contributor.

Organic growth is also expected to contribute over coming years, driven by inflation-linked pricing and growth in industry fund members. The broker's analysis centres on FY22 earnings but the growth trajectory is unlikely to be even.

The pull back in the share price has increased the value appeal and the broker upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. Target is unchanged at $8.30.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $7.03 Difference: $1.27
If LNK meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.42, suggesting upside of 19.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 24.28 cents and EPS of 43.94 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.7, implying annual growth of 63.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 27.24 cents and EPS of 49.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.7, implying annual growth of -6.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MND  MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $14.29

Citi rates MND as Neutral (3) -

The company's trading update was better than Citi expected and the outlook is improving in core markets. The stock trades at an 18% premium to the market despite the cyclical and execution risk.

Hence, while demand is improving, Citi maintains a Neutral rating. Target is raised to $14.30 from $13.95.

Target price is $14.30 Current Price is $14.29 Difference: $0.01
If MND meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.46, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 52.00 cents and EPS of 63.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.4, implying annual growth of -11.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 67.50 cents and EPS of 82.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.1, implying annual growth of 23.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWH  NRW HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $1.79

Citi rates NWH as Buy (1) -

The company's trading update signals earnings margin should improve in the second half. Citi believes this update underscores the company's execution, considering the labour availability constraints and wage pressures.

The broker reiterates a Buy rating and raises the target to $2.25 from $2.10.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $1.79 Difference: $0.46
If NWH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.23, suggesting upside of 24.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 6.30 cents and EPS of 16.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.6, implying annual growth of 34.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 18.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.7, implying annual growth of 7.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OML  OOH!MEDIA LIMITED

Out of Home Advertising

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Overnight Price: $4.38

Citi rates OML as Buy (1) -

The company has confirmed the renewal of the Brisbane City Council 10-year contract with Adshel. Citi believes this is a great outcome, given this was the largest contract and accounted for close to 10% of Adshel business. JCDecaux did not bid for this contract.

This decision signals to Citi that there may be a new level of rationality in the outdoor advertising market particularly if the two leaders are not aggressively chasing share.

The broker retains a Buy rating, expecting the company to benefit from structural growth in the industry. Target is $5.75.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $4.38 Difference: $1.37
If OML meets the Citi target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.81, suggesting upside of 32.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.70 cents and EPS of 22.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.2, implying annual growth of 11.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.40 cents and EPS of 29.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.4, implying annual growth of 27.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates OML as Accumulate (2) -

The Brisbane City Council will retain the Adshel advertising contract, a material proportion of the company's business. Ord Minnett believes the announcement alleviates some concerns surrounding near-term earnings forecasts, industry market structure and competition.

The broker maintains an Accumulate rating and $5.40 target. The broker believes the consolidation in the sector over the past six months is positive with a more stable duopoly unlikely to mean churn occurs on the larger contracts.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.38 Difference: $1.02
If OML meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.81, suggesting upside of 32.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.2, implying annual growth of 11.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.4, implying annual growth of 27.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QUB  QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $2.69

Morgans rates QUB as Hold (3) -

At its AGM, Qube noted the performance of its 50%-owned Patrick business had driven results ahead of FY19 internal expectations. The broker has materially revised on expectation of stronger revenue growth and margin expansion.

Upgrading Patrick modelling leads to a target increase to $2.85 from $2.59. Hold retained.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.69 Difference: $0.16
If QUB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.72, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.50 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of 61.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.4.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 5.60 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.9, implying annual growth of 17.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO  RIO TINTO LIMITED

Bulks

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Overnight Price: $73.32

Macquarie rates RIO as Outperform (1) -

Rio Tinto has formally approved the Koodaideri stage I development. Metrics are slightly better than Macquarie expected, largely because of a lift in capacity.

The US$2.6bn investment will deliver a 43mtpa iron ore mine, overcoming the depletion from other mines within the Pilbara business.

Macquarie has already factored in development to forecasts and emphasises this is replacement, not growth, tonnage.

Long-term production forecasts of 340mtpa for Pilbara iron ore are unchanged. Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating and $92 target.

Target price is $92.00 Current Price is $73.32 Difference: $18.68
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $88.90, suggesting upside of 21.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 412.29 cents and EPS of 690.78 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 716.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 396.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 373.72 cents and EPS of 627.34 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 735.7, implying annual growth of 2.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 413.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WES  WESFARMERS LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $31.52

Ord Minnett rates WES as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -

Following a review of its investment thesis post the de-merger of Coles ((COL)), Ord Minnett has a cautious outlook on Wesfarmers and questions capital allocation and the lack of valuation support.

The broker finds the appropriate PE multiple difficult to determine but believes a de-rating is likely, given the removal of a more defensive earnings stream and portfolio diversity.

Bunnings appears to be trading at a higher multiple versus other housing-related companies and other divisions appear to be more discount multiple businesses.

The broker downgrades to Lighten from Hold and reduces the target to $29 from $47.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $31.52 Difference: minus $2.52 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.57, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 186.00 cents and EPS of 368.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 229.6, implying annual growth of 116.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 192.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 165.00 cents and EPS of 197.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 206.6, implying annual growth of -10.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 178.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Broker New Target Prev Target Change
CGF CHALLENGER Ord Minnett 8.00 9.55 -16.23%
CKF COLLINS FOODS Deutsche Bank 7.50 6.30 19.05%
Morgans 6.90 6.92 -0.29%
UBS 7.80 6.30 23.81%
CMW CROMWELL PROPERTY Macquarie 0.98 1.00 -2.00%
CSR CSR Deutsche Bank 3.80 3.70 2.70%
Macquarie 4.60 4.40 4.55%
Morgan Stanley 3.00 3.75 -20.00%
DCG DECMIL GROUP Citi 1.10 1.18 -6.78%
HT1 HT&E LTD Citi 1.90 2.30 -17.39%
IVC INVOCARE Morgan Stanley 12.00 12.60 -4.76%
MND MONADELPHOUS GROUP Citi 14.30 13.95 2.51%
NWH NRW HOLDINGS Citi 2.25 2.10 7.14%
QUB QUBE HOLDINGS Morgans 2.85 2.59 10.04%
WES WESFARMERS Ord Minnett 29.00 47.00 -38.30%
Summaries
ALL ARISTOCRAT LEISURE Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $25.47
AMI AURELIA METALS Initiation of coverage with Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.68
CGF CHALLENGER Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $9.83
CKF COLLINS FOODS Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $7.22
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $7.22
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $7.22
CMW CROMWELL PROPERTY Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.03
COL COLES GROUP Initiation of coverage with Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $12.45
CRN CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES Initiation of coverage with Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $3.07
CSL CSL Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $180.64
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $180.64
CSR CSR Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $3.13
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.13
Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $3.13
DCG DECMIL GROUP Buy - Citi Overnight Price $0.67
DOW DOWNER EDI Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $6.37
FMG FORTESCUE Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.03
HT1 HT&E LTD Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $1.87
IVC INVOCARE Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $11.91
JBH JB HI-FI Sell - Citi Overnight Price $23.36
LNK LINK ADMINISTRATION Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $7.03
MND MONADELPHOUS GROUP Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $14.29
NWH NRW HOLDINGS Buy - Citi Overnight Price $1.79
OML OOH!MEDIA Buy - Citi Overnight Price $4.38
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.38
QUB QUBE HOLDINGS Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $2.69
RIO RIO TINTO Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $73.32
WES WESFARMERS Downgrade to Lighten from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $31.52
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

13

2. Accumulate

3

3. Hold

7

4. Reduce

2

5. Sell

3

Thursday 29 November 2018

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The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.