Australian Broker Call

Citi rates 29M as Neutral (3) -

Citi's takeways from 29Metals' Dec Q report are that a CEO search is underway, a Capricorn Copper tailings permit still outstanding, a further insurance claim is "progressing" and Golden Grove is still consuming cash.

No guidance was provided for Capricorn Copper, while Golden Grove zinc guidance is lower and costs higher than assumed.

Citi has cut its target to 50c from 75c and retains a Neutral (High Risk) rating.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.08
If 29M meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.63, suggesting upside of 81.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates 29M as Outperform (1) -

29Metals' Dec Q copper production was -20% below Macquarie's estimate and zinc -11% lower. Maiden 2024 copper and zinc production guidance also fell a little short.

The broker has cut near-term earnings forecasts but lifted medium-term due to uplifts in mining grades at Golden Grove.

Target falls to 70c from 80c, Outperform retained.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.28
If 29M meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.63, suggesting upside of 81.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates 29M as Overweight (1) -

Fourth quarter copper and zinc production for 29Metals missed Morgan Stanley's forecasts by -7% and -37%, respectively, resulting in a big miss on costs (AISC).

A mechanical failure at Capricorn Copper contributed to the copper miss, explains the broker, while lower zinc grades at Golden Grove were partly responsible for lower-than-expected output.

Overall, 2023 copper production met guidance, while both gold and zinc came up short. 

The broker's Overweight rating was based on an improvement for zinc production in 2024. Unfortunately, 2024 guidance for zinc and copper production missed by -20% and -5.6%, respectively.

The analysts await confirmation from management whether zinc production will improve in 2025, as well as management's FY24 guidance for Capricorn Copper.

Target 70c. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.28
If 29M meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.63, suggesting upside of 81.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates 5GG as Buy (1) -

Despite Pentanet announcing the installation of 5G equipment on eight towers with its first quarter update, a key milestone for a return to on-boarding high-margin on-net subscribers, Bell Potter estimates only 300 on-net subscribers were added in the second quarter.

This falls below the 450 quarterly on-net subscriber additions needed to meet Bell Potter's full year revenue forecasts. The company's second quarter update was otherwise largely in-line, with cloud-gaming paid subscriptions up 52% quarter-on-quarter.

Bell Potter flags "a high level of risk in the company generating meaningful net subscriber growth."

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to 8 cents from 11 cents.

Target price is $0.08 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.028
If 5GG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates A1M as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners highlight the significant increase in resources at the Jericho deposit, four km southeast of AIC Mines' Eloise copper mine in Queensland, and a marked uptick in the higher-confidence indicated category.

The Buy, High Risk rating and 80c price target are retained. The broker reminds investors AIC Mines is one of the few ways to gain leveraged exposure to copper production on the ASX.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: $0.505
If A1M meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 171% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AD8 as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

In updating its model for Audinate Group, Macquarie notes Pro AV market growth is GDP-linked due to the timing of equipment-upgrade cycles. The broker raises terminal penetration to reflect the structural trend of analogue to digital networking.

Although Audinate is dominant in the audio hardware market, this is 16.5% of Macquarie's estimated terminal total addressable market and Video & Software opportunities are early-stage.

The broker continues to like Audinate, with delivery on its strategy of growing the Dante-enabled network. However, with well-flagged M&A on the horizon and associated execution and reinvestment risks, Macquarie downgrades to Neutral from Outperform.

Target rises to $15.80 from $13.50.

Target price is $15.80 Current Price is $17.29 Difference: minus $1.49 (current price is over target).
If AD8 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.34, suggesting downside of -13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AIS as Neutral (3) -

Aeris Resources' Dec Q results were mixed, with copper production -14% below Macquarie's forecasts while gold output was largely in line. The broker is pleased Aeris has maintained FY24 copper production and cost guidance.

The company provided an update on Stockman, which is not in the broker's base case, but provides upside potential.

Changes in cost assumptions lead to a target cut to 13c from 15c, Neutral retained.

Target price is $0.13 Current Price is $0.11 Difference: $0.025
If AIS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.16, suggesting upside of 63.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALU as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi suggests artificial intelligence provides a tailwind for Altium as it could increase revenue share of design tools, relative to designers.

However, the key reason the broker upgrades its rating to Buy from Neutral is because Altium365 expands the company's total addressable market (TAM) into the Enterprise segment. This is achieved by building industry specific solutions/workflows on A365.

The greater TAM also increases monetisation of the existing user base and expansion beyond PCB designers, explains the analyst. The target price is increased by 21% to $56.60.

Target price is $56.60 Current Price is $49.35 Difference: $7.25
If ALU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $48.07, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALX as Neutral (3) -

European traffic strength in December resulted in Atlas Arteria's APRR traffic up 2.9%, consistent with revised forecasts, The mix skew was towards cars, Macquarie notes, as trucks felt the economic slowdown impact.

US traffic was down -14% when the broker had forecast -7%, on road works and a likely impact from weather.

Upside potential of some $0.46cps remains as legislation is challenged, though Macquarie thinks this will take 12-18 months to resolve. If legislative clarity on Greenway emerges it will take time to negotiate a settlement.

Neutral and $5.80 target retained.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.47 Difference: $0.33
If ALX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.11, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALX as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley anticipates a modest positive reaction to Atlas Arteria's 4Q traffic and revenue update.

Traffic rose by 3% on the previous corresponding period for the APPR motorway, the company's largest asset, compared to the broker's 2% forecast.

The analysts expect demonstrations by farmers, leading to multiple motorway blockades in France, will offset a solid ski season, and will result in a tougher start for APPR in 2024.

Equal-weight rating. Target $6.66. Industry View: Cautious. FY23 results are due on February 29.

Target price is $6.66 Current Price is $5.47 Difference: $1.19
If ALX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.11, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ALX as Hold (3) -

Following 4Q results for Atlas Arteria, Morgans identifies few surprises and notes FY23 traffic growth of 2.5% for FY23 was in line with expectation.

Traffic growth on the APPR motorway network in France, which accounts for around 59% of the broker's valuation for Atlas Arteria, was in line with forecast. It's assumed the annual toll escalation will be 3% when announced in February.

The Hold rating is unchanged and the target rises to $5.61 from $5.58.

Target price is $5.61 Current Price is $5.47 Difference: $0.14
If ALX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.11, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates APE as Hold (3) -

With the acquisition of a portfolio of dealerships and strategic property located across Melbourne and the Mornington region now approved by Eagers Automotive's shareholders, Bell Potter has adjusted its outlook accordingly.

Under the assumption the acquisition occurs at the end of February, Bell Potter lifts its earnings per share forecasts 3% and 5% for 2024 and 2025. 

The Hold rating is retained and the target price increases to $15.65 from $15.50.

Target price is $15.65 Current Price is $14.41 Difference: $1.24
If APE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.77, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ARU as Buy (1) -

Arafura Rare Earths has reported spending -$26m in cash expenditure over the second quarter, completing early construction and camp development activities and closing the period with cash of $67m following a $25m equity injection.

Bell Potter anticipates the company will report a -$79m net loss for the first half.

According to the broker, company management showed clear frustration at the state of the market, with Arafura Rare Earths facing a tough twelve months as falling commodity prices challenge financial opportunities.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to 19 cents from 44 cents.

Target price is $0.19 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.055
If ARU meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ARX as Buy (1) -

Aroa Biosurgery has downgraded its full year revenue guidance by -8%, now anticipating NZ$67-70m. As per Bell Potter, this represents 11% year-on-year top line growth at the midpoint, compared to the 55% growth achieved in the previous year.

Bell Potter explains the previously flagged de-stocking by its major US distribution partner commenced in the first half, driving a -13% decline in revenues, but revenues have continued to be weak as the distributor continues to reduce inventory.

The company expects this to be transitory and anticipates a return to growth in FY25.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to 90 cents from $1.15.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.62 Difference: $0.28
If ARX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ARX as Add (1) -

Morgans lowers its FY24 revenue forecast for Aroa Biosurgery by -8% in reaction to a disappointing 3Q cashflow report. An earnings (EBITDA) loss of between -NZ$1-3m is now expected for FY24, down from NZ$1-2m.

Management lowered FY24 revenue guidance by -8% due to a previous overestimation of the company's share of revenue from TELA Bio due to changes in inventory and stock positions. Sales of Myriad were also lower-than-expected.

The target falls to $1.20 from $1.50. Add.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.62 Difference: $0.58
If ARX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 94% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ATA as Add (1) -

Morgans updates its prior indicative forecasts for the acquisition of managed service provider Cirrus Network (CNW), as well as allowing for the post-completion capital raising by Atturra of around $50m.

The broker anticipates funds raised will be used for potential future acquisitions.

Management has guided to FY24 revenue in excess of $235m, slightly above the analysts' forecast, due to two meaningful contract wins post the Cirrus Network completion. The company is also guiding to underlying EBITDA of $25-27.5m in FY24.

Morgans' Add rating is retained and the target rises to $1.05 from $1.00.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.81 Difference: $0.245
If ATA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BGL as Neutral (3) -

Having delivered first gold in October, Bellevue Gold's plant already reached its 1m tonne per annum nameplate capacity in December. UBS expects commercial production will be announced within the quarter, as mining catches up with milling.

The company issued maiden second half guidance of 75-85,000 ounces, in line with the broker's expectations. Updated forecasts from the broker include higher all-in sustaining cost assumptions.

The Neutral rating and target price of $1.45 are retained.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.37 Difference: $0.08
If BGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates C79 as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Last week's material share price fall in reaction to the 2Q cashflow and trading update by Chrysos is an overreaction, suggests Shaw and Partners.

There is no change to the company's demand profile, believe the analysts, commenting upon a potential slight delay to FY24 deployment targets, which reflects customer readiness factors.

It's ironic, according to the broker, the recently signed deal with Barrick Gold provides the strongest signal yet that PhotonAssay is the future for the gold industry.

The Buy, High Risk rating is retained and the target price slips to $7.70 from $7.80.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $6.32 Difference: $1.38
If C79 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CCX as Buy (1) -

City Chic Collective has released a first half trading update. While the better than expected underlying earnings result is positive and appears to be cost-out driven, Citi notes below-the-line costs are unknown.

Net cash is below consensus expectations, which might suggest greater than expected one-off costs. Sales need to turn around rapidly in second half to meet consensus forecasts, Citi warns.

Sales continued to decline by double digits in the first half, albeit at an improved rate in the Dec Q, with the broker noting improvements in A&NZ. Buy (High Risk) and 62c target retained.

Target price is $0.62 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $0.07
If CCX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.48, suggesting downside of -14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CCX as Equal-weight (3) -

According to Morgan Stanley, strong cost control was behind in-line earnings (EBITDA) for City Chic Collective in the 1H, though sales were -6% adrift of the consensus estimate.

Second quarter gross margins were higher than Q1 and remain on track to return to historical levels, believe the analysts. 

Management is contemplating selling the North American business, which accounts for around 50% of group revenue, notes the broker.

Equal-weight rating. Target 40 cents. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If CCX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.48, suggesting downside of -14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CCX as Hold (3) -

A 1H earnings loss for City Chic Collective was in line with Ord Minnett's forecast. Margins improved in Q2 relative to Q1, and management still targets a 60% gross profit margin in the 2H , along with a return to profitable trading.

Regarding the potential sale of the US business, the company stated there is no certainty of a transaction proceeding at this stage.

The broker's target rises to 50c from 40c without any explanation. Hold.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If CCX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.48, suggesting downside of -14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CHN as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Chalice Mining is shaping up to be a smaller, higher-grade scenario than UBS had initially envisaged. The broker points out a smaller project brings the benefits of reduced capital expenditure and reduced risk around funding, execution and permitting.

The broker is now modelling the mine as a 2-4m tonne per annum open and underground pit project, with a ten year lifespan.

With the stock's share price declining -83% since August the broker sees sufficient value to upgrade the rating, while the target price reduces given the smaller scenario.

The rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral and the target price decreases to $1.45 from $3.00.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.11 Difference: $0.345
If CHN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.33, suggesting upside of 196.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CMM as Neutral (3) -

Capricorn Metals had pre-released key metrics showing a solid operating performance, confirmed in yesterday's Dec Q report. The company remains well on track for guidance with both production and costs tracking to the middle of their respective ranges, Macquarie notes.

Environmental approvals, and subsequent development timing of Mt Gibson, remain important, the broker suggests.

Neutral and $4.80 target retained.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.63 Difference: $0.17
If CMM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EOS as Buy (1) -

A December quarter update from Electro Optic Systems detailed a particularly strong quarterly cash result, notes Bell Potter. Well ahead of the broker's estimates were receipts from customers totaling $105.4m, up 158% year-on-year, and operating cash flow of $34.5m.

This saw the company report record full year receipts of $325.4m and operating cash flow of $113.0m.

Bell Potter considers the result "early validation" for company management, which has stated a focus on improving cash flow and repaying debt.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.60 from $1.50.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.505
If EOS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FCL as Outperform (1) -

Fineos Corp's cash receipts were down -11% in the Dec Q and -15% in the first half, due to slightly weaker services revenue as a small number of project start dates were pushed out, Macquarie notes.

Lower cash receipts were partially offset by lower cash payments, reflecting staff, product manufacturing and operating costs.

FY24 guidance is unchanged but second half and FY25 positive free cash flow guidance imply sustained cash flow performance, which remains critical to the outlook, Macquarie warns.

Outperform and $2.47 target retained.

Target price is $2.47 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: $0.41
If FCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.96, suggesting upside of 44.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FCL as Accumulate (2) -

In the wake of Fineos Corp's 2Q cash flow update, Ord Minnett suggests the earnings outlook is positive with prospects for near-term margin expansion. Client migrations to the cloud are growing, and product take-up levels have increased.

The broker anticipates growing subscription revenue, lower non-core expenses and reduced R&D expenses, and expects positive free cash flows in the next six months, in line with management's expectation.

The $3.10 target and Accumulate rating are kept.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: $1.04
If FCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.96, suggesting upside of 44.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates FFM as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Commenting on a "transformational" 2Q  for FireFly Metals (formerly Auteco Minerals), Shaw and Partners lists a pivot to copper via the Green Bay Project copper acquisition, where there has been encouraging initial drilling.

The Phase 2 drilling program is expected to commence in mid-2024, continuing through to end of 2025 with resource updates in the March and December quarters of 2025, observes the broker.

The Buy, High risk rating and $1.20 target are maintained.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.67
If FFM meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 126% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

Goodman Group has disclosed further detail that it has commenced infrastructure works for an available 1000 MW of power at a new
data centre campus in Tokyo, as well as entered into a Heads of Agreement with a customer to lease the first 50 MW data centre.

Citi sees this presenting upside risk to earnings growth in the short to medium term as higher work-in-progress development information increases the length and/or extent of continued earnings growth for Goodman.

Buy and $25.50 target retained.

Target price is $25.50 Current Price is $25.28 Difference: $0.22
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.90, suggesting downside of -6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HLS as Neutral (3) -

Having revised second half assumptions for Healius, Macquarie now forecasts FY24 earnings of $80m, below $95-105m guidance.

Macquarie assumes slightly lower imaging revenue growth following the release of Medicare data to December, and Increased opex growth to capture higher inflation associated with wages, collection centres and rents.

This leads to a significant downgrade to earnings forecasts and a target price cut to $1.50 from $1.95. Neutral retained.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.40 Difference: $0.1
If HLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.74, suggesting upside of 25.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JHX as Overweight (1) -

As we approach the February reporting season, Morgan Stanley anticipates a strong 3Q result and sees James Hardie Industries as a key Overweight holding.

The analysts also expects 4Q guidance will come in ahead of consensus forecasts due to seasonal strength and supportive US housing markets. The broker's 3Q profit estimate of US$179m is 4% ahead of consensus.

The target rises to $65 from $55. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $65.00 Current Price is $57.66 Difference: $7.34
If JHX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $56.54, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JIN as Overweight (1) -

As most readers probably already know, a record Powerball draw is set for tomorrow, which should help to improve fundamentals for Jumbo Interactive, according to Morgan Stanley. It's estimated aggregate jackpot games sales are up around 10% year-on-year.

The broker believes consensus/investor expectations will be exceeded in the 1H, which earns Jumbo a spot among Morgan Stanley's key small/mid cap ideas ahead of the upcoming February reporting season.

The Overweight rating and $19.20 target are unchanged.

Target price is $19.20 Current Price is $15.42 Difference: $3.78
If JIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.24, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JRV as Neutral (3) -

Jervois Global reported Dec Q cobalt production -10% lower than Macquarie's expectations. Maiden 2024 guidance suggests sales willl be flat, which is -14% below the broker's estimate.

The balance sheet has nonetheless improved, Macquarie notes, but Jervois has faced the headwind of cobalt prices falling more than -40% over the last twelve months.

Neutral and 3c target retained.

Target price is $0.03 Current Price is $0.03 Difference: $0.001
If JRV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KED as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Keypath Education International's pre-released first half result showed revenues up 14% compared to Macquarie's 2% estimate. The broker has increased FY24 forecasts to the top of the target range, reflecting revenue and cost performance.

Keypath's business transition continues, Macquarie notes. Management is targeting adjusted earnings profitability from the second half, and holds sufficient cash to support the business.

Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral. Target rises to 46c from 45c.

Target price is $0.46 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.105
If KED meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MAD as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Outperformance from Mader Group's Australian operations, delivering revenue of $141m, went some way in offsetting a weaker December quarter for the North American segment, which delivered $45.7m in revenue. 

North American revenue represented a -6% quarter-on-quarter decline, with Bell Potter explaining the result was due to the timing of workforce redeployment. 

The company closed out the quarter with $35.3m in net debt, down from $40.4m at the end of the previous quarter, and continues to target zero debt over the medium term. 

The rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold and the target price increases to $7.30 from $7.05.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $6.30 Difference: $1
If MAD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MEI as Outperform (1) -

Meteoric Resources' drilling program update suggests resource upside to Macquarie as it notes high grade mineralisation intercepted outside its current resource estimate.

Macquarie sees material upside to the resource estimates of 409mt, given its large licensed areas outside the current resource base. The scoping study, metallurgical evaluation updates and higher resource estimates are seen presenting positive catalysts in the near term.

Outperform and 46c target retained.

Target price is $0.46 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.265
If MEI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 136% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MIN as Hold (3) -

Upon the release of 2Q results, management at Mineral Resources left FY24 volume guidance unchanged for both lithium and iron ore.

The broker highlights declining 2Q operating costs for lithium (anticipated), and rapid progress at the Onslow Iron project, which will likely be executed within budget. First iron ore shipments are due this June.

Management noted both Mt Marion and Wodgina are profitable at current lithium prices and operating costs should fall this year as stripping completes.

The $67 target and Hold rating are unchanged.

Target price is $67.00 Current Price is $60.84 Difference: $6.16
If MIN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $69.57, suggesting upside of 16.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates MMI as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Following Metro Mining 4Q activities and cash flow report, Shaw and Partners highlights a new annual production record for bauxite of 4.57mt was achieved in 2023.

The broker observes the bauxite market continues to tighten post the Indonesian export ban and delivery constraints in Guinea and China. Management believes Cyclone Jasper in January has cost around -$15m in lost sales and higher costs.

The cash balance at December 31 of $12m was -$6m below the analysts' forecast. As a result, management has raised an additional $22m from less dilutive sources than a capital raise, notes Shaw.

The Buy, High Risk rating and target price of 6 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.06 Current Price is $0.02 Difference: $0.04
If MMI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 200% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MP1 as Buy (1) -

Megaport's Dec Q annual recurring revenues were in line with Citi's expectations and were boosted by a large global wide area network (WAN) deal. The broker sees potential for consensus earnings upgrades due to the better than expected 1H result.

Better revenue and lower opex drove an earnings beat, but the gross profit margin was below expectations. Free cash flow was stronger than expected, and capex guidance has been lowered.

Buy and $12.05 target retained.

Target price is $12.05 Current Price is $12.48 Difference: minus $0.43 (current price is over target).
If MP1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.46, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MP1 as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie expects timing drove Megaport's Dec Q earnings to 38% above the broker's estimate. At the mid-point of FY24 guidance, this implies a 1H:2H skew of 57:43, despite lower capitalised wages in the quarter.

Completion of the new 400Gbps backbone in the March quarter and Project Centurion (80% complete) underpin future sales growth, Macquarie suggests.

In Australia, the FibreconX deal enables Megaport to sell directly to customers in Australian CBD locations without needing to go to a data centre. This reduces friction in the sales cycle for the enterprise.

The broker notes operating leverage with high-fixed cost base and completion of capital projects in FY23 provide a platform for strong double-digit free cash flow growth over the forecast period. Target rises to $15.50 from $14.10, Outperform retained.

Target price is $15.50 Current Price is $12.48 Difference: $3.02
If MP1 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.46, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MP1 as Equal-weight (3) -

While Megaport's 2Q revenue and earnings beat consensus expectations by 3% and 25%, respectively, management maintained FY24 guidance, as 2H earnings and net cash flow be impacted by an increased headcount, explains Morgan Stanley.

The broker expects overall cash flow will improve, as management lowered FY24 capex guidance to $20-22m from $28-30m.

Key KPI growth remains muted, according to the analysts, with quarter-on-quarter growth for customers, ports and total services of 1%, 2% and 3%, respectively.

Equal-weight. Target $10.20. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $10.20 Current Price is $12.48 Difference: minus $2.28 (current price is over target).
If MP1 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.46, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MP1 as Hold (3) -

Pre-released 2Q KPI’s and financials for Megaport were much better than feared by Morgans. The cost-of-goods-sold (COGS) metric was in line, while higher revenues raised the gross profit number more than anticipated.

Expectations held by consensus and the broker were exceeded for both earnings (EBITDA) and free cash flow (FCF).

The company delivered 33% year-on-year growth in annual recurring revenue (ARR), in constant currency terms. This outcome was achieved despite adverse seasonality, and a reset of the sales structure (commission reset and new staff hired), explain the analysts.

In Morgans' view, the numbers show the quality of Megaport's compounding earnings stream. The target is raised to $13.50 from $10. Hold.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $12.48 Difference: $1.02
If MP1 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.46, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MP1 as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett attributes yesterday's around 30% jump in Megaport's share price upon the release of 2Q results to the ongoing trend of volatility around quarterly updates, and a broader rally for technology shares on the day.

The broker notes strong revenue growth in the 2Q, while adjusted earnings (EBITDA) continued an upward trend. While new hires weighed on margins, they are expected to result in revenue growth over the remainder of FY24.

Management maintained FY24 adjusted earnings and revenue guidance, but lowered expenditure guidance by -28% at the midpoint.

The $15 target and Hold rating are unchanged.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $12.48 Difference: $2.52
If MP1 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.46, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MP1 as Buy (1) -

A good second quarter from Megaport, according to UBS, with earnings up 26% on the broker's forecast. The company announced a large contract win in the period, with an annual recurring revenue value of $1.4m. 

While customer and service adds remained subdued despite the additional headcount, UBS points out it does take time for sales momentum to build with many of the new hires starting late in the quarter. 

Megaport intends to incrementally increase headcount in the third quarter.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $14.50 from $13.30.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $12.48 Difference: $2.02
If MP1 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.46, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MX1 as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans makes no changes to forecasts for Micro-X following the 2Q cashflow report. Net operating cash inflow of $4.3m was boosted by a $6.2m R&D rebate, highlights the analyst.

In pleasing news, according to the broker, receipts for the mobile x-ray (Mobile DR) product are increasing and project work with the Australian Stroke Alliance (ASA) and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) remains on track.

The Speculative Buy rating and 27c target are unchanged.

Target price is $0.27 Current Price is $0.11 Difference: $0.165
If MX1 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 157% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MXI as Buy, Higher Risk (1) -

Following a robust 2Q operational result, according to Ord Minnett, MaxiPARTS expects to report a 13% increase in 1H sales on the previous corresponding period, just shy of the broker's forecast.

Management's 1H24 earnings (EBITDA) estimate of around $10.6m nearly matches the broker's 10.6m forecast.

The Buy, Higher Risk recommendation stands, and the target falls to $3.40 from $3.60 on the broker's increased forecast for depreciation and amortisation charges, as well as interest costs, due to recent acquisitions.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.45 Difference: $0.95
If MXI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NIC as Buy (1) -

Despite nickel pig iron pricing being near a record low, Nickel Industries delivered an increase in earnings in the Dec Q, Citi notes, as the second generation rotary kiln-electric furnaces continue to ramp up.

The announced US$100m buyback should deliver 30-60% of free cash flow to shareholders, and in Citi's view, reassure shareholders there are no more ‘big deals’ to come.

The broker has modelled a free cash flow payout of 45% for now, and the entire US$100m buyback, which Citi assumes is purchased at its unchanged target price of 80c. Buy (High Risk) retained.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.73 Difference: $0.075
If NIC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NIC as Outperform (1) -

Nickel Industries posted strong Dec Q production results with nickel pig iron production 15% above Macquarie's estimate and nickel metal production 2% above. Underlying earnings beat the broker by 41% on lower than expected costs and higher realised prices.

The company announced a revised dividend payout policy of 30-60% of free cash flow and a US$100m share buyback, subject to shareholder approval, which is expected to be conducted over a 12-month period.

The second half dividend of 2.5c beat the broker's 2.0c estimate. Target rises to $1.10 from $1.00, Outperform retained.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.73 Difference: $0.375
If NIC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates REG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie remains positive on the outlook for Regis Healthcare given improved occupancy and balance sheet capacity for acquisitions.

Recommendations as part of the Aged Care Taskforce present a potential positive catalyst, the broker suggests, through additional funding via resident co-contributions.

Macquarie has lifted outer year earnings forecasts and its target to $3.55 from $3.05. Outperform retained.

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $3.27 Difference: $0.28
If REG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RMS as Neutral (3) -

Ramelius Resources' Dec Q report showed production 6% above Macquarie's estimate and costs 8% higher. The company lifted FY24 production guidance, but also cost guidance, due to one-off maintenance and more ounces from the higher-cost Edna May.

Ramelius finished with net cash, albeit lower than the broker expected, but no debt.

The preliminary feasibility study for the Rebecca region is due mid-2024 and could change the long-term outlook, but is not yet included in Macquarie's valuation. Neutral and $1.70 target retained.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.58 Difference: $0.12
If RMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.92, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RMS as Buy (1) -

Despite one-off conveyor repairs at Mt Magnet, weighing on both throughput and costs, Ord Minnett assesses a solid 2Q result. Production and sales bettered the broker's forecast by 5% and 6%, respectively.

Management upgraded FY24 guidance by 4%, though costs were -9% worse than prior guidance.

The analysts contend the share price will re-rate once the opportunity at the Cue deposit (now included in Ord Minnett's forecasts for Mt Magnet) is priced in by more investors.

In rolling forward the valuation model for Ramelius, the broker has captured higher near-term cash flows, and the target rises to $2.05 from $2.00. Buy.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.58 Difference: $0.47
If RMS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.92, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates RMS as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners notes a "strong" 1H production result for Ramelius Resources, after assessing the 2Q activities report.

Strong 1H production at the Penny and Symes deposits allowed management to upgrade full year production guidance to 265-280koz
from 250-275koz.

At the current gold price, Shaw believes Ramelius will likely achieve record margins in FY24.

The Buy, High Risk rating and $2 target are maintained. 

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.58 Difference: $0.42
If RMS meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.92, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SDR as Overweight (1) -

SiteMinder's 1H trading update revealed revenues of $91.7m, close to Morgan Stanley's forecast for $92.5m.

While subscription revenue of $60.3m was considered strong, transactional was weaker than the broker expected on the Global Distribution System (GDS) cloud platform cycling an elevated comparison.

Importantly, according to the analyst, management confirmed earnings and free cash flow (FCF) profitability will be attained in FY24.

The Overweight rating and $5.45 target are unchanged. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $5.45 Current Price is $5.48 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If SDR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.93, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SDR as Buy (1) -

SiteMinder delivered a positive quarter, with topline results largely in line, and UBS sees the company's core offering as appealing.

With the launch of auto payments within the Little Hotelier platform imminent and the launch of Stripe managed terminals later in the month, UBS expects transaction product developments can help drive growth in the Payments segment. 

The broker also notes positive developments around new products Dynamic Revenue plus and Channel Plus, both on track for a mid-year launch. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $6.55 from $6.70.

Target price is $6.55 Current Price is $5.48 Difference: $1.07
If SDR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.93, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SFR as Neutral (3) -

Sandfire Resources' Dec Q delivered in-line production and better costs, Citi reports. FY24 guidance is maintained. The company has
reliably been hitting targets, the broker notes, helping to cement it as the ‘go to’ name in ASX copper.

Citi remains Neutral-rated with an unchanged target of $6.90, balancing near-term caution on copper and limited catalysts.

Sandfire is gearing up to sustain Matsa into 2042 and beyond verus the current mine life into 2030, and didn’t rule out adding external opportunities to the Spanish portfolio.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $7.12 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.08, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Equal-weight (3) -

Following 2Q production results for Sandfire Resources, Morgan Stanley believes FY24 guidance remains achievable, with the ramp-up at the Motheo operations progressing well.

Copper production missed forecasts by the broker and consensus by -3% and -4%, respectively, while costs (C1) were -5% worse against the broker's estimate.

Management left FY24 guidance unchanged.

The broker updates its financial model, resulting in a $6.30 target up from $6.00. The Equal-weight rating is maintained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $7.12 Difference: minus $0.82 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.08, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SFR as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

While Ord Minnett assesses another solid quarterly (Q2) result for Sandfire Resources, a 23% share price rally since October results in a rating downgrade to Accumulate from Buy.

Slight lower 2Q copper production than the analyst expected was offset by a beat for zinc production following re-sequencing at Magdalena.

The Matsa-owned Aguas Tenidas in Spain also experienced positive grade reconciliation and improved recoveries from low-pyrite poly ore, explains the broker.

Management's copper production guidance is unchanged.

The target rises to $7.50 from $7.10 as Ord Minnett rolls-forward the financial model, which captures higher near-term cash flows.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $7.12 Difference: $0.38
If SFR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.08, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SFR as Buy (1) -

Sandfire Resources' December quarter missed UBS's expectations, reporting 22,400 tonnes of copper production and 24,200 tonnes of zinc, -8% below the broker's forecasts.

The broker explained the miss as a result of copper grades and recoveries at Matsa, and notes the company's full year remains largely on track to meet guidance.

The ramp up and expansion of Motheo also remains on track, and on budget. This should see the site exceed 50,000 tonnes per annum in FY25.

The Buy rating and target price of $7.60 are retained.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $7.12 Difference: $0.48
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.08, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SLR as Outperform (1) -

Silver Lake Resources had already released Dec Q cash and bullion movement metrics but yesterday's report showed the miner is tracking comfortably towards guidance, and Macquarie now anticipates production and costs towards the stronger end of respective ranges.

The operating performance over the quarter was stronger than the broker's original estimate. The company ended the half in a comfortable position compared to guidance and with a strong balance sheet.

Progress at Sugar Zone nevertheless remains important, the broker warns. Outperform and $1.50 target retained.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: $0.295
If SLR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SLR as Buy (1) -

Production, pre-reported sales and the cash balance in the 2Q for Silver Lake Resources were in line with Ord Minnett's forecasts.

While management's FY24 guidance for sales of 210-230koz are unchanged, the broker expects the top-end of this range will be exceeded given 56% of guidance has already been reached.

The target rises to $1.95 from $1.90. Buy.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: $0.745
If SLR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUL as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -

Morgan Stanley downgrades its rating for Super Retail to Underweight from Equal-weight.

More generally, the broker remains Underweight the Discretionary Retail sector, with stocks under coverage trading above mid-cycle valuations, with only limited potential for significant earnings upgrades.

The target rises to $13.20 from $11.50. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $16.02 Difference: minus $4.52 (current price is over target).
If SUL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.95, suggesting downside of -12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SUN as Hold (3) -

After Suncorp Group's preliminary update on key financial metrics ahead of 1H results, as well as a cyclone Kirrily update, Ord Minnett increases its FY24 profit forecast by 4%.

Gross written premium growth exceeded prior guidance for 10% growth due largely to premium rate increases, explains the analyst, while the natural hazard cost allowance was unchanged.

Hold rating retained. Target is $13.50.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $13.92 Difference: minus $0.42 (current price is over target).
If SUN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.42, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TSK as Buy (1) -

Task Group's third quarter has proven its strongest quarter of new software business conversion wins, having added some significant new US customers in the period.

As Bell Potter notes, post-third quarter the company has won two additional contracts. The broker explains Task Group's end-to-end customer engagement platform gave it an edge over competitors to secure contracts, and this platform forms part of the broker's positive thesis on the company.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to 59 cents from 54 cents.

Target price is $0.59 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: $0.19
If TSK meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TSK as Buy (1) -

Task Group's 3Q operating cash flow was in line with Ord Minnett's expectation, but capex was a -$2m miss due to product development for TASK Pay and feature enhancements.

The broker's forecast platform revenue growth between FY24 and FY26 has been met due to new business captured during the quarter. Increased penetration of the full product suite also supports and de-risks overall revenue forecasts.

Ord Minnett's growth forecasts have also been de-risked courtesy of progress for the first phase of the land and expand strategy in the
US.

The target rises to 58c from 57c and the Buy rating is unchanged.

Target price is $0.58 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: $0.18
If TSK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources