Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates AKE as Outperform (1) -

Allkem has reduced its guidance for spodumene production in FY23 at Mount Cattlin by -17-19%. Incorporating the reduction drives a -9% reduction to Macquarie's earnings forecast.

While the reduction was disappointing, particularly given a poor performance during the first half at the project, the staged development of Sal de Vida and expansion at Olaroz should support the medium-term production growth profile, the broker asserts.

Outperform retained. Target is reduced to $19 from $20.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $11.62 Difference: $7.38
If AKE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.59, suggesting upside of 44.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AKE as Add (1) -

In a 1H results preview for Allkem, Morgans is forecasting Earnings (EBITDAIX) of $363.9m compared to the consensus expectation for $394.3m.

The analyst expects profit (after non-controlling interests) will be $190.8m (consensus $216.2m).

The broker retains its Add rating and $15.20 target.

Target price is $15.20 Current Price is $11.62 Difference: $3.58
If AKE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.59, suggesting upside of 44.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALU as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Altium missed UBS on softer subscriptions and new licence sales, despite earnings being in line. The broker is cautious on the medium term outlook as we are yet to see true impact of 10-15% price hikes in December on new seat sales and subscription renewal rates.

Octopart is likely to see further normalisation in clicks and CPC growth and there is limited scope for operating leverage in the medium term as Altium transitions to SaaS and invests in Enterprise/Nexus, the broker notes.

Altium is trading at an average 40% premium to high-growth SaaS and Australian tech peers despite delivering below-peer margins and free cash flow, points out UBS. Downgrade to Sell from Neutral. Target falls to $37.30 from $37.70.

Target price is $37.30 Current Price is $37.69 Difference: minus $0.39 (current price is over target).
If ALU meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $39.68, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AMA as Neutral (3) -

AMA Group's result was broadly in line with UBS but the second half requires a large skew to meet reaffirmed FY guidance. Cash will be sufficient to fund the second half recovery, which lowers the risk for a potential capital raising.

Management noted material staffing or pricing uplifts are not required to get to guidance.

AMA still faces multiple challenges to achieve FY24 guidance, the broker believes. Labour scarcity remains the key challenge and
pricing negotiations with Capital SMART must be successfully negotiated.

Valuation is not overly demanding and AMA offers potentially an interesting recovery story, UBS suggests, but with a lot of heavy lifting and moving parts in FY24. Target rises to 26c from 16c, Neutral retained.

Target price is $0.26 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.015
If AMA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ARB as Sell (5) -

Citi sees a reasonable amount of execution risk around ARB Corp's US strategy pivot, warning stores in the region may need to stock more lower-margin third-party brands to appeal to customer product preferences and trade at lower margins for some time to allow the company to maximise opportunity. 

The broker also notes a direct to customer focus in the region could see existing distributors deprioritise or delist ARB Corp's product. Exports to the US fell -16% over the first half, but the broker is hopeful the worst of customer destocking is now in the past. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $32.75 from $31.79.

Target price is $32.75 Current Price is $31.48 Difference: $1.27
If ARB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.18, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ARB as Neutral (3) -

ARB Corp's December-half result broadly met preliminary results announced this month.

Credit Suisse refers to elevated revenue uncertainty given the recent slowing in Australian aftermarket sales growth, a difficult macro environment, challenges with a major retail partner and lower export revenue, and believes a higher margin of safety is required.

EPS forecasts rise 1.6% in FY23; and fall -2.2% in FY24; and -4.3% in FY25. Neutral rating retained. Target price rises to $29.80 from $28.40.

Target price is $29.80 Current Price is $31.48 Difference: minus $1.68 (current price is over target).
If ARB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.18, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ARB as Neutral (3) -

First half results were in line with pre-reported figures. Macquarie observes the order book is strong and sales margins are improving. Several accounts in the US are being restructured and the Ford licenced accessories program is expanding.

The broker suggests the main risk is the degree of growth or otherwise in ARB Corp's key export markets and with major customers such as Ford and Toyota. Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $32.55 from $33.00.

Target price is $32.55 Current Price is $31.48 Difference: $1.07
If ARB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.18, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ARB as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley leaves its forecasts largely unchanged as ARB Corp's 1H results were pre-guided. While the six month outlook remains volatile, the broker is more positive on an 18-month timeframe. Equal-weight.

Despite supply of key models appearing to improve in the Australian Aftermarket, quarter-on-quarter growth is decelerating and export sales are choppy, according to the broker.

Uncertainty on US distribution remains, believes the analyst, yet a key positive is ARB's intention to establish a pilot store in early 2024, which lends upside risk to forecasts.

Morgan Stanley suggests the pilot store will allow the company to showcase a wider range of products and ultimately increase penetration.

The Equal-weight rating and $31 target are unchanged. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $31.48 Difference: minus $0.48 (current price is over target).
If ARB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.18, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ARB as Buy (1) -

First half results were in line with the trading update provided in January. Ord Minnett expects margin pressure should ease, although sales growth may be constrained by capacity limitations in Australia and ongoing problems in the US.

Improvements in vehicle sales in Australia and a strong order book should support growth throughout the remainder of FY23.

Over the longer term, growth opportunities for ARB Corp are considered significant. Buy rating reiterated. Target is steady at $34.80.

Target price is $34.80 Current Price is $31.48 Difference: $3.32
If ARB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.18, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASG as Buy (1) -

On initial assessment, UBS finds Autosports Group's first half has beaten its own guidance with a strong operational performance carried by new vehicles and a strong gross margin.

In addition, it seems the business has made a strong start into H2.

Though rising rates are now impacting through Finance expenses, UBS states today's strong result implies upgrades are forthcoming to consensus forecasts.

Buy. Target $3.10.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.11 Difference: $0.99
If ASG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.05, suggesting upside of 41.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AWC as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

With Alumina Ltd delivering an 11% 'beat' to Citi's full year profit expectations at US$109m, the broker has lifted its 2023 forecast modestly, albeit off a low base.

The broker has described operations as a double-edged sword, with lower Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals (AWAC) production likely to support a higher alumina price, and with AWAC production down -6% for 2023, the broker has accordingly raised its alumina price 4% for the year to US$360 per tonne.

The rating is upgraded to Neutral from Sell and the target price increases to $1.55 from $1.50. While the result beat Citi, it was some -8% below market consensus.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: $0.045
If AWC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.50, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AWC as Outperform (1) -

Alumina Ltd's share of its sole asset Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals' FY22 full-year profit nosed out consensus and fell shy of Credit Suisse's forecasts. No dividend was declared.

Credit Suisse observes strong spot alumina prices are boosting June-half margins and cost pressures are waning.

Net debt proved a 43% beat on consensus but met the broker's forecast, and gearing sat at 6%.

Management advises Pinjarra will need to reduce its freshwater usage by -30% from 2026 and the broker says the retrofitting of MVP technology in refineries could cut water consumption by -70% by the early to mid 2030s.

Outperform rating retained. Target price falls to $2.00 from $2.05.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: $0.495
If AWC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.50, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AWC as Underperform (5) -

Alumina Ltd's 2022 results were weaker than expected although the lack of a dividend was anticipated. AWAC's underlying EBITDA was -11% lower than forecast amid higher costs.

2023 guidance is for 10.5-10.7mt of alumina production and 180,000t of aluminium, less than Macquarie had previously forecast. Nevertheless, spot alumina prices have provided positive momentum for an earnings upgrade and costs are expected to normalise gradually.

Underperform rating and $1.00 target are unchanged.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: minus $0.505 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.50, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AWC as Overweight (1) -

FY22 underlying profit for Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals (AWAC) was a -30% miss compared to the Morgan Stanley forecast, and as a result, no dividend was declared.

Guidance for alumina production was -5% short of the analyst's estimate due to gas interruptions, planned maintenance and lower grades for bauxite at the refineries in WA.

Morgan Stanley retains its Overweight rating and $1.75 target for Alumina Ltd following FY22 results as negative impacts are seen as mainly limited to 2023. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: $0.245
If AWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.50, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AWC as Lighten (4) -

2022 results were "weak", Ord Minnett asserts. All profit accrued in the first half with the second half generating a net loss of -US$11m.

The decline was mainly on the back of margins, with a 16% rise in the average alumina price more than offset by a near -30% negative impact from an increase in production costs.

Meanwhile, the outlook is soft and guidance is for a further -10% reduction in AWAC alumina volumes in 2023. Ord Minnett assesses Alumina Ltd is in strong financial shape and well-placed to ride out a downturn. Lighten rating and $1.20 target unchanged.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: minus $0.305 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.50, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

Despite reporting a solid contract win, Citi remains concerned about how a potential market oversupply will impact on Aurizon Holdings' ability to take share moving forward. The broker highlights Aurizon Holdings' business case relies on the company winning additional volume.

Aurizon Holdings announced a cornerstone contract with Team Global Express (TGE) of approximately 140,000 twenty-foot equivalent units. Commencing in April, the project looks to require a capital expenditure of -$280m which will be spread from FY23-25.

The Neutral rating and target price of $3.70 are retained.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.44 Difference: $0.26
If AZJ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as No Rating (-1) -

BHP Group has disappointed Citi with its first half results, with underlying net profits of US$6.6bn a -9% miss to the broker and earnings of US$13.2bn a -6% miss. Net debt also rose to US$6.9bn from $0.3bn at the end of the previous fiscal year. 

The broker has lowered its earnings outlook -3% and -6% for FY23 and FY24 respectively, and net profit -9% and -8% respectively. Further, Citi forecasts net debt of US$1.7bn in the current fiscal year, improving to a net cash position in FY24.

Citi remains on research restrictions. 

Current Price is $48.30. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $43.90, suggesting downside of -8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

First half results were in line with forecasts, although the dividend was lower than expected. A divestment process has started for the Daunia and Blackwater mines.

Macquarie makes modest earnings increases for FY23, noting the buoyant iron ore, coking coal and copper prices present valuation upside for BHP Group.

The Outperform rating and target price of $52.00 are retained. 

Target price is $52.00 Current Price is $48.30 Difference: $3.7
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.90, suggesting downside of -8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Equal-weight (3) -

Higher than forecast costs weighed on 1H results for BHP Group, leading to misses against the forecasts of both Morgan Stanley and consensus.

While revenue was in line with expectations, inflationary pressures (eg diesel) and labour shortages drove costs higher and underlying profit was a -12% miss versus the broker.

The analyst suggests future capital management may be constrained by a higher level of net debt due to lower free cash flow generation. The 1H dividend of US90cps was a 2% beat versus consensus, but lower than the analyst's US$1.01/share expectation.

The Equal-weight rating and $42.20 target are unchanged. Sector view is Attractive.

Target price is $42.20 Current Price is $48.30 Difference: minus $6.1 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $43.90, suggesting downside of -8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BHP as Hold (3) -

BHP Group’s 1H earnings were a -5% miss compared to the consensus forecast due to inflationary pressures and added inventory costs, explains Morgans.

The Copper and Coal segments missed consensus by -13% and -6%, respectively, while the WA Iron Ore performance impressed the broker.

By returning the payout ratio to 70% (around pre-covid levels) and declaring a US90cps dividend, the company exceeded the consensus forecast for US88cps.

A significant 2H skew for capex is evident, as management maintained FY23 guidance for -US$7.6bn, having incurred only -US$3bn in the 1H.

In what the analyst considers is a significant boost for investor sentiment, management expects accelerating growth in China will counter economic weakness in the OECD.

The Hold rating is unchanged, while the target dips to $46.70 from $47.00.

Target price is $46.70 Current Price is $48.30 Difference: minus $1.6 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $43.90, suggesting downside of -8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Hold (3) -

First half results, while weaker than the prior corresponding half, still impressed Ord Minnett when compared with historical levels of profitability.

BHP Group stock is trading at a 22% premium to the broker's fair value target, which is reflecting higher commodity prices and increased demand from China.

Ord Minnett suspects the proposed purchase of OZ Minerals ((OZL)) should close in the second half of FY23 with the odds of completion being high and a competing bid unlikely. Hold rating and $39.50 target maintained.

Target price is $39.50 Current Price is $48.30 Difference: minus $8.8 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $43.90, suggesting downside of -8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Sell (5) -

BHP Group beat UBS on revenue but fell short on earnings. The dividend, while cut, was slightly better than forecast.

Management is positive on the demand outlook for the second half and into FY24 on strengthening activity in China on the back of recent policy decisions. The OZ Minerals ((OZL)) acquisition will leave debt within the target range.

BHP will sell two coal mines to provide capital in a competitive M&A landscape.

UBS retains Sell and a $39 target.

Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $48.30 Difference: minus $9.3 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $43.90, suggesting downside of -8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BST as Neutral (3) -

Best & Less first half earnings were in line with guidance while Macquarie notes sales were soft. The company is optimistic about the upcoming Easter and Mothers Day promotions.

Although the price point for the retailer should prove resilient as consumers "trade down", the broker notes there is a degree of uncertainty in the outlook. Target is reduced to $1.80 from $2.00. Neutral.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.80 Difference: $0
If BST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CGC as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Costa Group has announced it will postpone blueberry acreage expansion in 2023, and Credit Suisse downgrades its rating to Neutral from Outperform. The company closed the year with net debt ex leases of -$350m. 

The broker expects the impact on earnings will land in 2024. 

Elsewhere, the broker is forecasting a strong citrus recovery as wet weather subsides, and that the company should benefit from new citrus acreage purchases. 

The broker believes this, combined with the resumption of China acreage purchase by 2025, could trigger a 2025 earnings upgrade. Target $2.50.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If CGC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.83, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CGC as Outperform (1) -

2022 operating earnings and net profit were below Macquarie's forecasts. Significant growth is expected by Costa Group in 2023 and the broker also assumes a large recovery on the prior year.

Still, some of the growth is derived from a reversal of the impact on citrus in 2022 from adverse weather.

The main area of attention going forward is the decision on a new CEO and a restoration of market confidence, suggests the broker.

The stock acquisition by Paine Schwartz has put a floor under the share price, the broker adds. Outperform maintained. Target rises to $2.82 from $2.71.

Target price is $2.82 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: $0.15
If CGC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.83, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CGC as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Weather and inflationary cost pressures weighed on FY22 results for Costa Group with all metrics missing expectations though China operations were a highlight, according to Morgans.

Costs pressures are expected to moderate and management noted a positive start to FY23 with an improved weather outlook.

The broker leaves its earnings forecasts largely unchanged and downgrades its rating to Hold from Add on valuation. The target price rises to $3.00 from $2.90. There's considered potential for a takeover as private equity has returned to the share register.

Management anticipates significant earnings growth in FY23 with further growth over FY24 and FY25 as numerous growth projects scale up.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: $0.33
If CGC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.83, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CGC as Hold (3) -

Operating earnings in 2022 were weaker than Ord Minnett expected, despite the first full year of earnings from the citrus acquisition 2PH. Wet weather in Australia weighed on citrus quality while input costs were also elevated.

Ord Minnett expects earnings for Costa Group will gradually improve over the next two years. A final dividend of 5c was declared and the company expects to maintain franking levels of around 40% for the foreseeable future amid an increasing international contribution.

 Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating with a $3.10 target.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: $0.43
If CGC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.83, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CGC as Neutral (3) -

Costa Group posted earnings -20% down on a year ago. Declines in the second half were driven by a number of lower than expected production volume/quality outcomes, UBS notes, across avocado, mushroom and citrus.

High East Coast rainfall levels reduced fruit quality, negatively impacting realised prices through both domestic and export markets. Debt has shaprly increased but the company remains within covenants.

An improved weather outlook in 2023 should drive more favourable growing conditions, especially within citrus, which is expected to fully recover. Cost inflation is set to remain a headwind, with operating costs expected to increase year on year.

UBS believes a solid potential growth outlook is on offer, but execution of production outcomes to underpin this growth outlook will be
a key focus. Neutral and $2.75 target retained.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: $0.08
If CGC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.83, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CHC as Accumulate (2) -

Following the first half result, Ord Minnett trims earnings estimates slightly to $1 per security, albeit this remains ahead of Charter Hall's reaffirmed (conservative?) guidance of 90c per security.

Funds under management grew 11.2% over the first half, already reaching the broker's full-year estimate of $73bn.

While expecting softer inflows in the short term, the broker considers the funds management property portfolio in good shape, with a strong list of tenants where near-zero rent defaults are expected.

Target is raised to $16.20 from $15.85. Accumulate maintained.

Target price is $16.20 Current Price is $13.58 Difference: $2.62
If CHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.88, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates COL as Buy (1) -

First half earnings from continuing operations from Coles Group of $1,058m were 6% ahead of Citi's expectations, and the broker points out sales momentum has improved with shopping patterns trending back towards pre-covid levels. 

With significant implementation costs for both Ocado and Witron to impact through to FY24, Citi points to FY25 as an example of normalised earnings for the company.

The broker believes consensus forecasts are assuming a -$150m loss from Ocado in FY25, which it feels could prove excessive.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $20.20 from $18.90.

Target price is $20.20 Current Price is $18.13 Difference: $2.07
If COL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.96, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates COL as Outperform (1) -

Coles Group's December-half result appears to have pleased Credit Suisse, thanks to growing supermarket sales momentum (which the broker says had been obscured by the market's over-focus on an expected project expenditure blowout).

Strong cash realisation allowed a 78% payout ratio.

The broker believes the strong acceleration in sales means Coles could reverse its covid-19 losses in market share and expects the March quarter could reveal continued strength.

Add to that a continuing normalisation of supply chains, and earnings forecasts rise 4.3% in FY23 and 3.2% in FY24.

Outperform rating retained. Target price rises to $19.92 from $19.31.

Target price is $19.92 Current Price is $18.13 Difference: $1.79
If COL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.96, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COL as Outperform (1) -

Results for Coles Group were better than Macquarie expected, underpinned by supermarkets, while liquor sales were soft as the business cycled a covid-affected period. The broker continues to prefer staples in a slowing macro economic environment.

Macquarie remains concerned about the rising cost of living, the roll-off of fixed mortgages and normalising service consumption. This could erode consumer discretionary expenditure in the second half of 2023.

Yet a better-than-expected interest-rate outcome or more resilient consumer environment remain risks to the Outperform rating. Target is raised to $20.00 from $18.70.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $18.13 Difference: $1.87
If COL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.96, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates COL as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley points out an earnings (EBIT) beat for Coles Group in the 1H was driven by the timing of opex, which is now weighted to the 2H.

An 5.1% increase in earnings (EBIT) margin offset underlying inflation from wages, an increase in stock loss rates and higher freight costs, explains the broker.

The analyst highlights strong growth in the company's own brands continued into the 3Q and inflation is expected to moderate over 2023.

Morgan Stanley makes only minor changes to its forecasts and the target rises to $14.00 from $13.70. Underweight. Industry View: In-Line.

The company announced CEO Steven Cain will be stepping down and will be replaced by Leah Weckert.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $18.13 Difference: minus $4.13 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.96, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates COL as Add (1) -

Coles Group's 1H earnings (EBITDA) were broadly in line with Morgans forecasts, while like-for-like sales for the Supermarkets and Liquor divisions were beats.

Earnings (EBIT) for Liquor fell by -19% in the 1H due to operating deleverage from lower sales, higher wage costs and investments in stores and digital, though management expects a return to earnings growth in the 2H (aided by no longer cycling covid impacts).

The company stated Supermarkets volume growth returned to being modestly positive from mid-January, but supplier input cost pressures remain.

The broker's forecasts are largely unchanged and the target moves to $19.60 from $19.50. Add.

Target price is $19.60 Current Price is $18.13 Difference: $1.47
If COL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.96, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COL as Sell (5) -

First half results were strong and Ord Minnett lifts its target to $14.00 from $13.70 to reflect a slightly improved sales base. Coles Group EBIT margin forecasts are unchanged, averaging 5% over the next decade.

The broker anticipates the positive effect of food price inflation will moderate significantly in the second half. Wage, energy and rent costs are expected to continue increasing. Sell rating maintained.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $18.13 Difference: minus $4.13 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.96, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates COL as Neutral (3) -

Coles' result beat UBS on a significant beat from the supermarkets, offset by weak liquor, but aided by "other" which included property sales. The second half has started well with growth in supermarket sales from mid-January.

The outlook is improving for supermarkets, the broker notes, with real sales growth expected to continue. Food inflation has peaked but is expected to remain elevated, driven by dry groceries.

UBS has increased its FY23 forecast but cut latter years. Target falls to $18.00 from $18.25, Neutral retained.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $18.13 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.96, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSR as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Macquarie assesses conditions are weakening for CSR and the risks are growing. While the available work has been robust and builders are generally expected to be busy over 2023, a tightening of affordability and price pressures could result in increased cancellation rates.

While the company is likely to perform strongly over FY23, the broker assesses the earnings risk beyond that is distinct. Rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral and the target is lowered to $4.55 from $5.05.

Target price is $4.55 Current Price is $5.06 Difference: minus $0.51 (current price is over target).
If CSR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.43, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DMP as Buy (1) -

Upon initial assessment, Domino's Pizza Enterprises' H1 release today significantly missed expectations with UBS pointing towards Asia and Europe.

Same store growth pace is now below the trends witnessed over the past 3-5 years, the broker points out.

Not colouring the picture any rosier, the fresh start in H2 has thus far been subdued which means targeted new store openings shall not be met.

Buy. Target $78.

Target price is $78.00 Current Price is $71.36 Difference: $6.64
If DMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $75.57, suggesting upside of 38.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EHE as Outperform (1) -

First half results revealed a benefit from improving occupancy and greater government funding. Underlying EBITDA was 15% ahead of Macquarie's forecasts.

Combined with recent acquisitions, the broker envisages several factors will support strong earnings growth in FY24 and FY25. Outperform retained. Target rises to $2.75 from $2.50.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.05 Difference: $0.7
If EHE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVT as Buy (1) -

Citi believes the outlook for EVT Ltd's cinema and hotel businesses continues to improve, with positive trends continuing into the second half, although notes the pace of recovery of the company's core businesses can be hard to predict. 

The broker feels the company's strong balance sheet and property portfolio position it well to pursue future growth opportunities. While the non-core divestment program has been completed, EVT Ltd retains a further $100m to be divested under the right market conditions. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $17.11 from $17.85.

Target price is $17.11 Current Price is $13.17 Difference: $3.94
If EVT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GEM as Neutral (3) -

2022 results were largely in line with pre-reported numbers. While G8 Education is responding to the headwinds effectively, Macquarie notes resourcing challenges exist.

The company is still to exit the 30 impaired centres in its portfolio and this may prove challenging. Any successful outcome represents around 4% upside risk to the broker's near-term estimates. Neutral maintained. Target rises to $1.12 from $1.04.

Target price is $1.12 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: minus $0.125 (current price is over target).
If GEM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GEM as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

G8 Education posted a solid improvement in occupancy half on half, ending the year at 71%, UBS highlights, and major business improvements are largely done.

The demand outlook is improving and the upcoming increase in government rebates should help further stimulate participation. However labour shortages remain the key constraint to further occupancy uplifts and industry supply may again become a headwind.

Wage increases could help drive a meaningful step-up in labour availability but government reviews of the industry create another layer of uncertainty, UBS warns.

Given the recent share price run the broker downgrades to Neutral from Buy. Target rises to $1.30 from $1.25.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.055
If GEM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HSN as Buy (1) -

Interim results were broadly in line with expectations. In an initial assessment, UBS notes EBITDA margins were affected by the significant increase in employee churn, but this has now normalised.

The broker's focus is on the strong increase in recurring revenue which, along with recent increases in contract pricing, should drive a "solid" second half.

Buy rating and $6.30 target.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $4.84 Difference: $1.46
If HSN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.15, suggesting upside of 32.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates HT1 as Outperform (1) -

HT&E's FY22 full-year result outpaced consensus and met Credit Suisse's forecasts.

Management reiterated its expectation that the company's digital audio business would reach earnings (EBITDA) breakeven by the end of this year.

On the downside, radio revenues in the year to date were flat and the broker cuts EPS forecasts -4% in FY23 and FY24.

Outperform rating and $1.80 target price retained. 

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: $0.575
If HT1 meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.55, suggesting upside of 28.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HT1 as No Rating (-1) -

2022 EBITDA of $82.1m beat Macquarie's forecasts. In the first quarter trading remains consistent with the broker's view on radio operators being more resilient as the advertising market eases back.

Macquarie expects costs will decline in FY24, reflecting a response from the company to the softening advertising market.

Macquarie is on research restrictions for HT&E.

Current Price is $1.23. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $1.55, suggesting upside of 28.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HT1 as Underweight (5) -

In a first assessment of yesterday's FY22 result for HT&E, Morgan Stanley considers the higher 2H dividend was a key positive, and overall, the result was in line.

Confirming the analysts's prior view linear radio is structurally challenged, there was a -$250m non-cash impairment for radio assets.

Management noted 1Q revenues are pacing flat on the previous corresponding period and 2Q visibility is "short". Underweight. Target $1.10. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: minus $0.125 (current price is over target).
If HT1 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.55, suggesting upside of 28.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HT1 as Buy (1) -

HT&E's earnings came in 9% ahead of UBS. Looking forward, March quarter radio revenues are "pacing near flat" with limited visibility into the June quarter.

Based on current market conditions, management has guided to people and operating costs to grow at a faster rate than revenue, albeit noting short-term cost levers are available should market conditions deteriorate.

On current valuation and yield, UBS retains Buy. Target rises to $1.75 from $1.70.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: $0.525
If HT1 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.55, suggesting upside of 28.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates HUB as Outperform (1) -

Hub24's December-half earnings (EBITDA) outpaced consensus by 1% and missed Credit Suisse's forecasts by -1%. Platform EBITDA outpaced consensus by 6% due to a 7% revenue beat and higher revenue margins.

Expenses were also higher than Credit Suisse forecast (a -11% miss) and capital expenditure eased. Tech Solutions also disappointed and Class outpaced.

Management reiterated it FY24 funds under management target but the broker has doubts, although it does spy room for the company to deepen its adviser footprint. 

EPS forecasts fall -3% in FY23; -4% in FY24; and -2% in FY25.

Outperform rating and $33 target price retained.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $29.09 Difference: $3.91
If HUB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.75, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HUB as Outperform (1) -

First half results were broadly in line with expectations. While revenue margins are resilient, Macquarie suspects they have likely peaked. Technology solutions were a drag on performance, with both Hub Connect and Class below expectations.

Still, the structural growth thesis for the platform division remains intact and Macquarie retains an Outperform rating. The main risks come from market movements and weaker net flows. Target is raised to $32.60 from $31.30.

Target price is $32.60 Current Price is $29.09 Difference: $3.51
If HUB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.75, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HUB as Add (1) -

Hub24's 1H underlying earnings (EBITDA) exceeded Morgans forecast by 10% driven by higher earnings on pooled cash. Platform revenue grew by 33% on the previous corresponding period, with funds under administation (FUA) increasing by 6%.

Management reaffirmed FUA guidance for FY23 and showed confidence in the potential for larger ‘transition’ deals to be executed to reach the FY24 target. The analyst forecasts FY24 FUA of $77.3bn, up from $55.8bn at the end of the 1H.

Morgans notes cost growth of around 25% half-on-half, which limits 2H Platform earnings growth.

The broker raises its FY23-25 forecasts by more than 10% and the target rises to $31.90 from $27.80. Add.

Target price is $31.90 Current Price is $29.09 Difference: $2.81
If HUB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.75, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HUB as Buy (1) -

First half results were ahead of forecasts, underpinned by a strong platform performance and higher revenue margin along with contained costs.

Ord Minnett considers Hub24 a top pick in the platform segment, being well-placed to increase flows and market share over the next few years.

The Buy rating is reiterated and a $33 target maintained.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $29.09 Difference: $3.91
If HUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.75, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ILU as Neutral (3) -

Iluka Resources' FY22 full-year result appears mixed, the company benefiting from strong mineral sands prices and stable zircon production, but the capital expenditure decision for Balranald of -$480m came in -$150m more than Credit Suisse had forecast.

Management also provided high cash-cost guidance for 2023.

The broker revises up its 2023 dividend forecasts to 32c a share from 10c but expects a quick reversal to 12c in 2024 as capital expenditure bites.

The broker expects the company's projects in hand could take the share price to $17.70 in the longer term but warns execution will be critical.

Neutral rating retained. Target price eases to $10.70 from $10.90.

Target price is $10.70 Current Price is $10.63 Difference: $0.07
If ILU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.13, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ILU as Outperform (1) -

Iluka Resources' FY23 full-year result met consensus' and Macquarie's forecasts, the company boosting earnings 45% year on year thanks to strong mineral sands prices.

Management provided strong FY23 production guidance (up 12%), particularly for zircon, but advised costs would rise 23%.

A final dividend of 20c was declared, raising the full-year payment to 45c.

Meanwhile, Balranald's and Wimmera reserve environmental approvals have been received and a final investment decision of -$480m has been approved.

EPS forecasts rise 3% in 2023; fall -2% in FY24 to reflect cost guidance; and rise 5%, 9% and 7% across 2025 to 2027 to reflect the onboarding of Balranald and Wimmera.

Outperform rating and $12.80 target price retained.

Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $10.63 Difference: $2.17
If ILU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.13, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Equal-weight (3) -

As study results for the Balranald project disappointed, Morgan Stanley rates FY22 results for Iluka Resources towards the negative. All key profit and loss metrics for the financial year were within -2-3% of forecasts by the broker and consensus.

The net present value (NPV) for Balranald of $400m at a 7.3% discount rate was significantly lower than the broker's unrisked -$454m forecast at a 9.5% weighted average cost of capital (WACC).

Management's 2023 guidance was broadly weaker than the analyst expected on higher costs and lower production.

The Equal-weight rating and target price of $10.70 are retained. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $10.70 Current Price is $10.63 Difference: $0.07
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.13, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ILU as Neutral (3) -

Iluka Resources' 2023 zircon/rutile production guidance is marginally below UBS' expectations. Cost inflation of 8% year on year reflects ageing deposits and WA cost escalation.

Capex guidance marks a considerable step-up year on year and the broker expects 2024 to be higher again, with Wimmera potentially keeping capex at elevated levels through until 2027.

But cash, cash flows, debt facilities and government support provide comfort on funding new projects. UBS retains a Neutral rating ahead of further project de-risking. Target falls to $11.20 from $11.55.

Target price is $11.20 Current Price is $10.63 Difference: $0.57
If ILU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.13, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates INA as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett was particularly disappointed with the downgraded guidance after the first half result, as management has lowered both short and medium-term settlements by -16% and -11%, respectively, at the mid point.

Construction delays and a softening residential market were cited as the main reasons for lower guidance. The broker notes long-term demand for the sector remains strong, although Ingenia Communities will need time to prove its ability to consistently meet guidance.

Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and reduces the target to $4.47 from $5.09.

Target price is $4.47 Current Price is $4.00 Difference: $0.47
If INA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates INA as Neutral (3) -

Ingenia Communities delivered disappointing underlying earnings, UBS notes, as development earnings were impacted by continued shortages of key trades. Downgraded guidance reflects ongoing construction delays and, more recently, a slowing residential market.

This marks a series of consecutive downgrades and while peers are experiencing similar operational challenges, Ingenia's consistent inability to meet stated targets raises broader questions around the operating platform's ability to scale, the broker suggests.

Holiday parks and Lifestyle Rental are otherwise showing stable growth and structural tailwinds. The key focus, the broker believes, will be on balance sheet strength to buffer weakness and recovery in sentiment in regional residential markets.

Target rises to $4.05 from $3.92, Neutral retained.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $4.00 Difference: $0.05
If INA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JDO as Buy (1) -

Following a solid first half beat, supported by higher than expected net interest margins, saw Judo Capital's share price recovery continue from October lows. 

Citi described the period as ideal, but an aberration, with rising interest rates and strong business profitability allowing Judo Capital to grow its loan book above 20% as funding costs declined sharply. 

Citi warns conditions have already started to change, earlier than expected, and that net interest margins will decline over the second half, despite ongoing cash rate increases. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.00 from $1.90.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: $0.495
If JDO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.96, suggesting upside of 37.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JDO as Outperform (1) -

Judo Capital's December-half result outpaced consensus by 11% and management reiterated profit-and-loss guidance.

Macquarie expects deposit tailwinds will ease in the June half, which should result in margin pressure and volatility, and believes management will have to prove its metal in a more stable environment to gain a market rerating.

The broker observes 64% of the company's liabilities are now floating, compared wth 87% in May, due mainly to the TFF (one of the main contributors to the first-half beat).

Judo also benefited from strong hedged margin benefits.

EPS forecasts rise 5% in FY23; 5% in FY24; and 1% in FY25 to reflect higher interest rates benefits.

Outperform rating retained and $1.70 target price retained on valuation.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: $0.195
If JDO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.96, suggesting upside of 37.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JDO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley assesses a good 1H result for Judo Capital, with management also increasing the implied profit range for FY23 to $60-70m from $40-65m.

Profit beat the broker's forecast by around 20% in the 1H as a better margin and stronger growth in average interest earning assets (AIEA) offset slightly higher costs and a build up of collective provisions.

While 1H expenses were around -4% worse than the analyst expected, the CTI ratio of around 54.5% was better than the forecast 59%.

The Overweight rating is maintained and the target climbs to $1.80 from $1.75. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: $0.295
If JDO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.96, suggesting upside of 37.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JLG as Buy (1) -

The interim result from Johns Lyng was robust and Citi finds early encouraging signs in the US. Given the history of upgrades in June, the broker suspects the company is taking a conservative stance with new guidance and potentially underestimating the volume of work likely to emerge.

These events are increasingly larger in scale and longer in duration. The broker's estimate for EBITDA of $117m is ahead of guidance, amid expectations of a buoyant contribution from catastrophe events. Buy rating maintained. Target rises to $9.65 from $8.77.

Target price is $9.65 Current Price is $6.34 Difference: $3.31
If JLG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.55, suggesting upside of 36.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LAU as Buy (1) -

Lindsay Australia's first half net profit beat expectations. FY23 EBITDA guidance has been reaffirmed at $68-71m, implying the performance in the second half will only need to be flat and still reach the top end of that range.

Strength in transport continues, with EBITDA up 29% while the rural segment was flat and constrained by weather events and a likely buildup in inventory.

Ord Minnett observes the balance sheet has improved materially, while growth opportunities remain, both organically and via acquisition. Buy rating reiterated and the target is raised to $0.83 from $0.76.

Target price is $0.83 Current Price is $0.70 Difference: $0.13
If LAU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MAH as Outperform (1) -

Macmahon's December-half result outpaced Macquarie on revenue but disappointed on earnings as margins fell to 15.1% from 17.1% due to rising costs and failed cost recoveries.

Management raised FY23 revenue guidance by 15%, expecting cost recoveries to land in the second half.

EPS forecasts fall -4% in FY23; and rise 5% in FY24 (to reflect Batu Hijau phase 8); and decrease -1% to -2% in FY25 and beyond.

Outperform rating and 25c target price retained.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.16 Difference: $0.09
If MAH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MND as Sell (5) -

On further analysis, Citi continues to envisage risk to the recovery in E&C for Monadelphous Group and suspects margins are likely to remain flat in the second half.

A meaningful recovery is now not expected until the second half of FY24 and beyond. Sell rating maintained. Target is reduced to $12.25 from $12.35.

Target price is $12.25 Current Price is $12.73 Difference: minus $0.48 (current price is over target).
If MND meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.46, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates MND as Outperform (1) -

First half earnings were ahead of Credit Suisse estimates. Although there is a significant amount of work on the horizon, the broker suggests the risks for Monadelphous Group in terms of timing are increasing.

All up, the broker reduces FY23-24 estimates for earnings per share by -7.17-17.7%.

While the operating environment ahead bodes well for the business, a delay in contract awards and project starts has multiple implications for the near term, Credit Suisse observes. Outperform maintained. Target is reduced to $14.40 from $15.10.

Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $12.73 Difference: $1.67
If MND meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.46, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MND as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Monadelphous Group's December-half result nosed out Macquarie's forecasts, thanks to a strong beat in earnings (EBITDA) margins and a buoyant resources sector.

Macquarie says the margin beat reflects the company's earnings quality and targeted bidding.

The construction division disappointed due to contract delays and losses (the Rio Tinto Western Range contract) and iron-ore capital expenditure, and the broker observes contract delays are continuing but considers selective tendering is better in the long-term given it allows the company to put its constrained labour forces and resources into higher yielding projects.

Management guides to increased revenue in the June half and FY24, and advises the contract pipeline remains at $2bn.

Macquarie downgrades its rating to Neutral from Outperform. Target price eases to $13.60 from $13.70.

Target price is $13.60 Current Price is $12.73 Difference: $0.87
If MND meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.46, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MND as Hold (3) -

First half net profit was relatively flat and in line with expectations. The latest guidance from Monadelphous Group signals a -5-10% decline in revenue in FY23. Ord Minnett now assumes a -6.5% decline while forecasts for FY24 are also reduced although an improvement is still expected.

The company is observing a significant number of opportunities across a range of commodity markets with the transition to clean energy likely to provide wind and hydrogen work.

Ord Minnett assumes the proportion of higher-margin engineering construction work versus lower-margin maintenance and industrial services work will increase and labour shortages ease. Hold rating and $13.65 target.

Target price is $13.65 Current Price is $12.73 Difference: $0.92
If MND meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.46, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MND as Neutral (3) -

Monadelphous delivered first half earnings ahead of UBS. The Maintenance division drove the beat supported by strong demand from the resources and energy sectors. However, Construction revenue declines offset this, falling -40% given delays to contract awards and commencements.

FY23 guidance nonetheless disappointed, with revenue to be down -5-10% on FY22 compared to a flat expectation, with Construction revenues to decline in FY23 before ramping up into the back end of FY24.

The softer Construction revenue outlook is due to a continued delay in both contract awards and commencements in projects given significant labour constraints in WA, the broker notes.

Maintenance activity is continuing to be supported by buoyant energy/mining production. Target falls to $13.40 from $13.85, Neutral retained.

Target price is $13.40 Current Price is $12.73 Difference: $0.67
If MND meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.46, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MVF as Outperform (1) -

Monash IVF's December-half result nosed out Macquarie's forecasts and guidance, thanks to a beat on international cycles (international prices also rose) and a recovery in ultrasound.

Meanwhile, market-share growth followed on from recent recruitment of fertility specialists and the ART associates acquisition in October and Macquarie expects these gains will accelerate in the June half given the PIVET purchase is expected to be finalised this quarter.

Management upgraded FY23 net-profit-after-tax guidance - a 1.5% beat on Macquarie's estimates.

EPS forecasts rise 2% in FY23; 1% in FY24; and are steady in FY25.

Outperform rating retained. Target price steady at $1.30.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.09 Difference: $0.21
If MVF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.30, suggesting upside of 21.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MVF as Overweight (1) -

Monash IVF's 1H adjusted profit was in line with guidance and revenue aligned with forecasts by Morgan Stanley and consensus. Despite declining volumes and cost pressures for the industry, margins were maintained.

The broker suggests the company is gaining market share via relative growth outperformance for total fresh cycles and frozen cycles.

Management noted "industry volumes have normalised well above pre-covid levels". FY23 guidance is for 15% underlying profit growth (versus FY22), up from 10% previously.

The target rises to $1.30 from $1.25. Overweight. Industry view In-Line.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.09 Difference: $0.21
If MVF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.30, suggesting upside of 21.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MVF as Add (1) -

Morgans assesses a solid 1H result for Monash IVF with underlying profit coming in slightly ahead of guidance.

In the face of declining industry volumes, the company continues to gain market share in key markets both organically and via acquisitions, explains the analyst.

The broker gains increased confidence in the pipeline from a strong increase in 2Q new patient registrations.

Management has upgraded guidance for underlying FY23 profit growth to 15% from 10%.

Minor changes are made to Morgans forecasts and the target rises to $1.29 from $1.24. Add.

Target price is $1.29 Current Price is $1.09 Difference: $0.2
If MVF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.30, suggesting upside of 21.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PPT as Neutral (3) -

UBS has incorporated the Pendal acquisition into its Perpetual model based on a number of assumptions, noting further combined group financial information is not likely to be available until April 2023 with the March quarter business update.

While the broker remains sceptical around the success of asset manager mergers in the medium term, in the near term there is scope for positive news on synergies.

Perpetual has a 60-90% dividend payout policy, and UBS has lowered its payout ratio assumption to 70% to allow for gradual de-gearing of debt required for the acquisition over time.

Target rises to $29.00 from $26.60, Neutral retained.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $26.99 Difference: $2.01
If PPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.30, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PRN as Outperform (1) -

Perenti's December-half result pleased Macquarie thanks to a strong beat on margins despite rising costs and labour expense, and management issued its third consecutive upgrade to FY23 guidance.

Macquarie observes the company has $5.4bn of work in hand and a $9.2bn pipeline.

EPS forecasts rise 5% in FY23; 7% in FY24; and 3% thereafter.

Outperform rating retained. Target price rises 7% to $1.50 from $1.40.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.13 Difference: $0.375
If PRN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PWR as Buy (1) -

Citi found the first half results "solid", underpinned by strong topline growth and improved cost management. The broker is attracted to the consolidation opportunity in dealerships for Peter Warren Automotive, although suspects this may take longer to eventuate in current conditions.

The main question is whether demand is waning, as Citi considers the drop in order writing in January a sign consumer demand is feeling the pinch. Buy rating retained. Target is raised to $3.70 from $3.60.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: $0.92
If PWR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.44, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PWR as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley raises its FY23-25 profit (PBT) forecasts for Peter Warren Automotive by 6-13% following 1H results which suggest higher margins for longer. Ongoing growth in the order backlog is thought to provide strong visibility for earnings.

Profit of $43.2m beat the analysts's forecast for $37.3m. It's felt this outcome de-risks the 2H.

The broker concedes prior forecasts were conservative due to factoring-in the potential impact of macroeconomic uncertainty upon demand.

No guidance was provided by management other than references to a substantial order bank and diversified revenue streams.

Overweight. The target rises to $3.20 from $3.10. Industry View: In Line.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: $0.42
If PWR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.44, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PWR as Add (1) -

While higher opex impacted the 1H for Peter Warren Automotive, Morgans notes results were in line with its expectations.

The broker suggests the order book is starting to reflect a more balanced demand and delivery environment, rising by 4% half-on-half, compared to the 61% rise on the previous corresponding period.

The FY23 EPS forecast is lowered by -8.5% with no significant changes in outer years, and the broker's target remains at $3.25. Add. 

Industry consolidation will continue, suggests Morgans, and Peter Warren Automotive is expected to participate, helping to mitigate any operating deleverage as margins normalise.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: $0.47
If PWR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.44, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PWR as Buy (1) -

Margins were better than Ord Minnett anticipated, leading to a 10% beat at the net profit line in the first half. Peter Warren Automotive's order book did contract -3% in January, signalling it has likely peaked.

The company has reiterated acquisition intentions and there remains potential for re-entry of Toyota into the group. Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $3.60 from $3.50.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: $0.82
If PWR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.44, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RMS as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Ramelius Resources's December-half result outpaced Macquarie's net debt and net-profit-after-tax forecasts, and management reiterated guidance.

Strong revenue, a beat on production costs, and lower depreciation and amortisation boosted the top line, although a slight miss on corporate costs and exploration expenditure weighed on earnings (EBITDA).

The company finished the half with net cash, including leases, of $101m (up $14.1m), thanks to a lower lease balance, advises the broker.

EPS forecasts rise four-fold in FY23; and 2% to 4% thereafter to reflect an improved lease balance.

Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. Target price is steady at $1.20.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.87 Difference: $0.335
If RMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.29, suggesting upside of 43.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RMS as Buy (1) -

Ramelius Resources surprised Ord Minnett with a first half net profit that beat estimates, although all remaining items were in line.

The broker suspects the company has "turned a corner" as margin and cash flow improvements deliver along with an increasing contribution from the high-grade Penny project.

An increase in the cash balance and improving margins, combined with the recent sell-off in the stock, present a compelling valuation argument, in the broker's view, and a Buy rating is maintained with a $1.35 target.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $0.87 Difference: $0.485
If RMS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.29, suggesting upside of 43.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SCG as Neutral (3) -

Initial analysis leads UBS to the conclusion today's H1 release by Scentre Group slightly missed forecasts, but guidance proved better-than-expected, including versus market consensus.

A closer look at the main items reveals Scentre Group's released numbers were below UBS's on just about everything, except the 15.8c in dividend (UBS 15.3c).

While guidance is stronger than expected, UBS's commentary also contains a mild warning: investor attention is shifting towards the health of the Australian consumer in the second half of 2023.

Neutral. Target $3.20.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.89 Difference: $0.31
If SCG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.09, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SDF as Outperform (1) -

Steadfast Group's result (guidance was upgraded last week) outpaced consensus given brokers have been slow to update forecasts advises Macquarie.

The broker describes it as a strong result, buoyed by acquisitions, organic growth and price rises (up 8% and still going).

With 32 acquisitions finalised this financial year and five scheduled for the June half, Macquarie expects the good times will continue to flow.

The company closed the half with a gearing ratio of 19.1%.

EPS forecasts rise 5.5% in FY23; 2.3% in FY24; and 2% thereafter.

Outperform rating retained. Target price rises to $6.50 from $6.10.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.59 Difference: $0.91
If SDF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.16, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SEK as Outperform (1) -

First half operating earnings were marginally higher than Credit Suisse forecast. Seek has moved guidance to the lower end of the prior range, at $560m in EBITDA, which the broker notes includes an additional -$10m of unification operating expenditure that will roll off over time.

The broker's analysis signals the pricing uplift for FY23 to date is being driven by a 9% increase in yield, and this suggests a greater benefit will flow into the second half of FY23, and into FY24.

Upside is envisaged for the stock with an Outperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $34.80 from $35.10.

Target price is $34.80 Current Price is $23.90 Difference: $10.9
If SEK meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.45, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SEK as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Seek's December-half result met consensus estimates and outpaced Macquarie's forecasts by 6%.

Management narrowed guidance to the low end of its range in response to weaker turnover in Australian and New Zealand, and the bringing forward of unification costs into operational expenditure.

On the upside, Asia posted a strong yield, the segment growing at 22% year on year (A&NZ yields improved slightly). EPS forecasts rise 23% in FY23; 43% in FY24; and 51% in FY25 to reflect the Asia beat.

Rating upgraded to Neutral from Underperform. Target price rises to $23.50 from $19.50.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $23.90 Difference: minus $0.4 (current price is over target).
If SEK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.45, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SEK as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes 1H results were in line and the growth outlook remains positive. An interim dividend of 24cps was declared.

However, management lowered FY23 guidance (for revenue, earnings and profit) to the lower-end of the prior guidance range on moderating A&NZ volumes. This new guidance now aligns with consensus expectations, points out the broker.

Overweight rating. Target $34. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $23.90 Difference: $10.1
If SEK meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.45, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SEK as Add (1) -

In a broadly positive result, according to Morgans, revenue for Seek in the 1H was a 2% beat compared to consensus, while earnings (EBITDA) were in line and profit (excluding significant items) was also a 4% beat.

The broker notes Seek benefited from yield growth, particularly in SEEK Asia. The performance of this division, following recent investments in the region on brand/marketing, was considered a highlight of the 1H.

Guidance was set at the lower end of previously flagged ranges, which the analyst suggests is partly due to job ad volume growth moderating in the 2H, particularly in A&NZ. This slowing was not totally unexpected by Morgans.

An interim dividend of 24cps (fully franked) was declared. The target falls to $28.40 from $28.90. Add.

Target price is $28.40 Current Price is $23.90 Difference: $4.5
If SEK meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.45, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SEK as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett notes a strong result in the first half for Seek was supported by ongoing tightness in the job market in Australasia and particularly strong results in Asia.

Nevertheless, momentum is unlikely to be maintained, with the trend in job advertisements already starting to dip and the company's employment dashboard showing national job advertisements down -8% from January 2022.

The balance sheet remains in good shape and Ord Minnettt retains a Hold rating and $22.80 target.

Target price is $22.80 Current Price is $23.90 Difference: minus $1.1 (current price is over target).
If SEK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.45, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SEK as Buy (1) -

Seek's result was slightly softer than UBS due to a more optimistic view on A&NZ yields, as the broker had assumed an earlier than expected reversal in volume discounts.

The broker is nevertheless pleased with the A&NZ listing yield growth outcome of 9% in the first half, which suggests dynamic pricing to date is delivering a step-change in pricing.

UBS remains optimistic around the ability of dynamic pricing to support growth, particularly when listings begin to see faster normalisation in the second half and FY24.

Target falls to $27.20 from $27.80, Buy retained.

Target price is $27.20 Current Price is $23.90 Difference: $3.3
If SEK meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.45, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGP as Neutral (3) -

Despite the half year result demonstrating positive trends in a number of Stockland's businesses, Citi found weakness in the residential market a concern heading into the typically stronger second half. 

Typically the company benefits from a 67% residential settlement volume skew and a 77% residential settlements earnings skew in the second half, but market weakness presents risk. The company has retained its funds from operations guidance, but Citi expects realisation of this is reliant on residential performance over the coming half. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $3.90 from $3.81.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.76 Difference: $0.14
If SGP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SGP as Outperform (1) -

First half results were weaker than Credit Suisse expected. There was no change to FY23 guidance. A forecast second half earnings skew is largely a function of residential settlement timing, and Stockland is now guiding to 5500 lots versus 6000 because of production delays.

This should be offset by higher residential operating margins and a better contribution from the commercial portfolio. Going forward into FY24, the broker allows for lower residential settlement volumes while expecting commercial earnings to grow largely because of industrial development completions.

Credit Suisse makes minor changes to estimates, with its FY23 FFO of 34.4c per security estimate within the implied post-tax guidance range. Target rises to $4.04 from $4.02 and an Outperform rating is maintained.

Target price is $4.04 Current Price is $3.76 Difference: $0.28
If SGP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGP as Neutral (3) -

Stockland's December-half result missed Macquarie's forecasts by -5% but management reiterated FY23 guidance, advising of a skew in residential settlements to the June half (and the result pointed to a modest residential recovery in the December quarter).

The broker observes the commercial portfolio posted a solid performance and the balance sheet supports new projects/options.

But the outlook for residential sales is the key headwind, given the Reserve Bank has voiced its commitment to raising the cash rate to stem inflation.

Macquarie appreciates the company's progress on its transition to more of a capital light model.

FFOps forecasts rise 2.2% in FY23; 7.3% in FY24; and 3.1% in FY25 to reflect the improvement in the residential outlook, tax, and net property income.

Neutral rating retained. Target price rises to $3.81 from $3.60.

Target price is $3.81 Current Price is $3.76 Difference: $0.05
If SGP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGP as Overweight (1) -

Stockland's 1H funds from operations (FFO) of 14.8cpu were a miss against Morgan Stanley's 16.7cpu forecast though guidance for the full year was maintained.

Due to wet weather delays, management lowered its FY23 residential settlements guidance to 5,500 lots from 6,000. The analyst feels this change overshadows the positives within the 1H result from expansion into non-residential earnings streams.

The Overweight rating and target price of $4.30 are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.76 Difference: $0.54
If SGP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SGP as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

A softer outlook for residential settlements has caused Ord Minnett to slightly reduce estimates for earnings, or FFO, to 33.3c per security. The first half results signalled the business is on track to meet FY23 guidance.

The broker considers the securities undervalued, as Stockland has one of the strongest balance sheets in the sector, with gearing at 22.1%.

Target is raised to $4.35 from $4.30 and the rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold.

While the long-term outlook for the residential business, with strong population growth exceeding new housing supply, is becoming more certain the broker does not assume boom conditions will return.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $3.76 Difference: $0.59
If SGP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGP as Buy (1) -

Stockland's funds from operations missed UBS by -6% on lower residential settlements and higher overheads partially offset by stronger commercial development. Guidance implies a stronger second half, but the market will be watching resi settlements closely.

The broker now expects interest rates to peak at 3.85% and this implies housing prices down -17-20% and the economy closer to a hard landing.

A residential recovery moves 1-2 quarters in UBS ' view but is still expected given low unemployment, immigration resuming, low supply and tight rental vacancy.

Investors would like to see a more material rebasing of Stockland 's earnings, the broker suggests, to confirm the low point has been reached, though this may only occur in a recession. Target falls to $4.31 from $4.41, Buy retained.

Target price is $4.31 Current Price is $3.76 Difference: $0.55
If SGP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SSG as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

First half results were largely in line and no FY23 guidance was provided. Ord Minnett observes Shaver Shop has a strong market position and generates high returns on capital. The Australian network has been largely built out but there is scope for expansion in New Zealand.

Still, with declining sales in successive quarters and the prospect of more difficult trading ahead, the broker has become more cautious and downgrades to Hold from Accumulate. Target is reduced to $1.25 from $1.30.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.22 Difference: $0.03
If SSG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates STO as Buy (1) -

At first glance, underlying net profit for 2022 missed Citi's forecasts because of higher costs and depreciation. Other items were largely in line.

There was no update on Barossa, with regulatory approval still required. No update was provided on whether Bayu CCS will be online with first gas for Barossa, risking an emissions spike, the broker observes.

Meanwhile, Pikka appears on track and Santos has confirmed Dorado requires time to appraise Pavo, implying a final investment decision is some time away. Papua LNG FEED is still expected in the first quarter of 2023. Buy rating and $8.30 target.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $6.81 Difference: $1.49
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.33, suggesting upside of 32.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates TAH as Outperform (1) -

The main implication Credit Suisse draws from the interim result stems from Tabcorp Holdings' ROIC target of 10% by FY25. This suggests that the business will be more disciplined in paying for new licence arrangements.

The broker calculates this target can be met by paying up to $750m for the Victorian licence. In wagering, the broker suspects the industry will become more rational into the June half but models its numbers conservatively, expecting wagering revenue to grow 1.5%.

Outperform rating retained. Target is reduced to $1.30 from $1.35.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.04 Difference: $0.26
If TAH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.13, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TAH as Neutral (3) -

Tabcorp Holdings's December-half result appears to have disappointed Macquarie and the broker shaves its earnings (EBITDA) forecasts (EPS forecasts rise), expecting transition impacts will weigh on the June half, but advises regulatory reform and licence could trigger FY24 upgrades going forward.

Management also took the results opportunity to launch TAB24 but the broker is happy to wait for an improvement in digital gross revenue market share before incorporating projected figures into forecasts.

Despite posting flat gross market share in the June half, a -15% fall in digital revenue leads the broker to suspect the company has underperformed its rivals.

Neutral rating and $1.10 target price retained. 

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $1.04 Difference: $0.06
If TAH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.13, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)