Australian Broker Call
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May 17, 2019
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
DXS - | DEXUS PROPERTY | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
GWA - | GWA GROUP | Downgrade to Sell from Hold | Deutsche Bank |
MYX - | MAYNE PHARMA GROUP | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | Citi |
SBM - | ST BARBARA | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
SYD - | SYDNEY AIRPORT | Downgrade to Hold from Add | Morgans |
XRO - | XERO | Downgrade to Lighten from Buy | Ord Minnett |
Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | UBS |
Overnight Price: $27.08
Deutsche Bank rates ALL as Buy (1) -
Deutsche Bank believes the upcoming interim result will reveal that the extraordinary success of the land-based gaming business is being reinvested in the Americas and digital divisions. Nevertheless, the broker expects the result to surprise to the upside.
Recent survey and peer results revealed the North American gaming market is firm and Aristocrat Leisure is continuing to gain share in class III and class II as well as hold share in the more competitive outright sales segment. Buy rating and $39.30 target.
Target price is $39.30 Current Price is $27.08 Difference: $12.22
If ALL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $31.90, suggesting upside of 17.8% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 129.6, implying annual growth of 13.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 147.6, implying annual growth of 13.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $8.16
Morgans rates ALQ as Hold (3) -
Morgans envisages scope for FY19 net profit to beat guidance of $170-175m when the company reports its results on May 21.
Nevertheless, the upside risks are limited given a cautious outlook for operating conditions, particularly in US life sciences.
Morgans maintains a Hold rating and raises the target to $8.24 from $8.10.
Target price is $8.24 Current Price is $8.16 Difference: $0.08
If ALQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.27, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.7, implying annual growth of 254.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.1, implying annual growth of 14.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -
BHP has updated on its portfolio of organic growth options. In a turnaround, Nickel West will be retained as a core asset. New projects have been added in copper and met coal. Capex for Ruby, Olympic Dam and Jansen has been increased.
The broker notes buoyant iron ore prices continue to drive earnings, with free cash flow yields increasing to 12% in FY20-21 at spot prices. The broker makes no change to forecasts ahead of the company's strategy briefing next week. Outperform and $41 target retained.
Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $38.38 Difference: $2.62
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $37.89, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 329.46 cents and EPS of 264.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 282.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 319.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 195.18 cents and EPS of 278.24 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 337.0, implying annual growth of 19.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 210.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.01
UBS rates CGC as Buy (1) -
UBS believes Costa Group is on track for over 30% growth in net profit in FY19, although a softer Moroccan blueberry season and weaker local mushroom prices mean there is more pressure on other produce to fill the gap.
UBS reiterates a Buy rating and reduces the target to $6.70 from $6.80. The broker expects guidance to be reiterated at the May 30 AGM and management is likely to flag the increased importance of citrus and berry results.
Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $5.01 Difference: $1.69
If CGC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.85, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.9, implying annual growth of -29.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.4, implying annual growth of 14.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates CYB as Outperform (1) -
CYBG delivered better than expected March Q results, underpinned by revenues 3% ahead of the broker's forecast. Despite the headwinds, the net interest margin fell less than feared. The broker has increased earnings forecasts.
The broker sees scope for the CMD scheduled next month to build on current foundations, providing strategy and financial targets. There is upside risk if and when UK rates rise, which will be the case if Brexit is resolved. Outperform retained, target rises to $5.30 from $4.90.
Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $3.52 Difference: $1.78
If CYB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.47, suggesting upside of 27.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.01 cents and EPS of 48.12 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 16.22 cents and EPS of 50.46 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.9, implying annual growth of 8.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.5. |
This company reports in GBP. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates CYB as Hold (3) -
First half net profit was better than Morgans expected. Margin pressure remains evident and the company has moderated mortgage growth in order to maintain its margin in a highly competitive environment. FY19 costs targets have been reaffirmed.
Morgans increases estimates for FY19 earnings per share by 5% because of higher income and lower credit impairment charges. Hold rating and $3.64 target maintained.
Target price is $3.64 Current Price is $3.52 Difference: $0.12
If CYB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.47, suggesting upside of 27.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 7.21 cents and EPS of 48.66 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 21.62 cents and EPS of 54.05 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.9, implying annual growth of 8.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.5. |
This company reports in GBP. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $13.01
Citi rates DXS as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
Citi upgrades to Buy from Neutral and raises the target to $14.10 from $12.02. This reflects recent transaction activity and increased longer-term office re-leasing spreads because of a longer office cycle.
The broker believes a re-rating is likely to continue in a low interest rate environment, given the solid growth profile and high degree of distribution sustainability.
Target price is $14.10 Current Price is $13.01 Difference: $1.09
If DXS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.43, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 50.20 cents and EPS of 66.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.6, implying annual growth of -65.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 53.00 cents and EPS of 68.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.3, implying annual growth of 6.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
EXP EXPERIENCE CO LIMITED
Travel, Leisure & Tourism
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Overnight Price: $0.22
Ord Minnett rates EXP as Buy (1) -
The company has announced another downgrade to forecasts. Ord Minnett observes the positive news around the appointment of the new CEO John O'Sullivan had hardly settled.
The broker highlights the company's comments that Far North Queensland is experiencing a pronounced challenging period that has affected its skydiving and non-skydiving businesses.
While Cairns tends to be a highly cyclical market the broker considers the medium-term outlook is positive. The announcement points to the need for short-term restructuring of operations and the new CEO is likely to play a major role.
Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $0.37 from $0.41. Ord Minnett lowers estimates by -25% for FY19 and -27% for FY20.
Target price is $0.37 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.15
If EXP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.20 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.30 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.11
Deutsche Bank rates GWA as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -
Deutsche Bank expects falling home sales and listings data to affect earnings from FY20. While alterations and additions are more stable than new construction, this is closely linked to new home listings and sales.
The broker does not expect the decline to reverse in the near term and envisages similar, although not as negative, risks in New Zealand. Rating is downgraded to Sell from Hold. Target is $2.85.
Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: minus $0.26 (current price is over target).
If GWA meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.34, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.2, implying annual growth of -4.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.3, implying annual growth of 10.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
GXY GALAXY RESOURCES LIMITED
New Battery Elements
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Overnight Price: $1.65
Citi rates GXY as Buy (1) -
Galaxy Resources has made a strategic equity investment of $22.5m in Alliance Mineral ((A40)). This takes its holding to 12%. Alliance Mineral is currently ramping up the Bald Hill lithium project in Western Australia and has guided to production of 240,000t of spodumene concentrate in FY20.
Citi believes Galaxy Resources is looking at options to maintain and grow its exposure, as Sal de Vida and James Bay are still a few years away from meaningful production. Buy rating and $2.70 target maintained.
Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $1.65 Difference: $1.05
If GXY meets the Citi target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.35, suggesting upside of 42.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.5. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
IVC INVOCARE LIMITED
Consumer Products & Services
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Overnight Price: $15.44
Citi rates IVC as Sell (5) -
The company's first quarter update signalled net profit was up 9% and sales revenue up 7.8%. No full year guidance was provided because of the difficulty associated with accurately forecasting winter trading.
Citi increases 2019-21 estimates for earnings per share by 2% because of higher margin assumptions. The broker continues to expect the death rate to revert to the mean, as 2018 was particularly soft because of a mild winter and benign flu season.
Citi also believes the capital expenditure program, of which 40% has been completed, will continue to cause disruptions and the benefits will not be clear until 2020. Sell and $13.50 target maintained.
Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $15.44 Difference: minus $1.94 (current price is over target).
If IVC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $13.56, suggesting downside of -12.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 40.20 cents and EPS of 53.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.7, implying annual growth of 42.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 57.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.9, implying annual growth of 7.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
JHX JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES N.V.
Building Products & Services
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Overnight Price: $18.47
Citi rates JHX as Buy (1) -
Citi observes stabilising US housing market data and growing confidence in the company's strategic targets have driven rebound in the stock. Execution may be critical but, with falling pulp prices, the broker envisages upside earnings risks that may lead to a further re-rating.
Should management deliver at the top end of its targets, the broker estimates the three-year growth rate could be closer to 20%. Buy rating and $21 target maintained.
Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $18.47 Difference: $2.53
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $21.03, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 56.76 cents and EPS of 92.85 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 96.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 67.58 cents and EPS of 110.83 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 110.1, implying annual growth of 14.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MYX MAYNE PHARMA GROUP LIMITED
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences
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Overnight Price: $0.58
Citi rates MYX as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -
Citi had expected a more stable generic pricing environment would eventually lead to a recovery in trading but this is not the case for the start of the second half.
As a result of incorporating heightened deflationary pressures, the broker reduces FY19-21 estimates for earnings per share by -63% and -55% respectively.
Rating is downgraded to Neutral/High Risk from Buy and the target lowered to $0.60 from $0.95. The company will review the carrying value of its generic business and development assets at the full year results in August.
Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.58 Difference: $0.02
If MYX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.60, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.6. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.2, implying annual growth of 69.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.99
Macquarie rates RDY as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (1) -
Education and employment software company ReadyTech is supported by industry tailwinds, strong financials and growth options, the broker suggests. Coverage initiated with an Outperform rating and $2.20 target.
The company has a high recurring revenue subscription model supported by a long dated and diversified customer base. Underpinning FY19 growth, the broker notes, are contract wins in the prior Dec Q, reflecting traction in the dual brand strategy.
Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.99 Difference: $0.21
If RDY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 4.60 cents and EPS of 9.10 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 5.20 cents and EPS of 10.30 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.92
Citi rates SBM as Neutral (3) -
The company will acquire Canadian miner Atlantic Gold for around $768m. Atlantic Gold owns the Moose River mine in Nova Scotia. Citi believes the deal is positive and should keep St Barbara's medium-term production above 350,000 ounces per annum, even without Simberi sulphide.
Citi's initial modelling suggests the purchase price is reasonable on the basis of technical studies and allowing for exploration upside. The broker retains a Neutral rating and lifts the target to $3.60 from $3.30.
Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: $0.68
If SBM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.28, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 34.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.7, implying annual growth of -30.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 44.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.5, implying annual growth of 2.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates SBM as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -
St Barbara will acquire Canadian-listed Atlantic Gold, with the Moose River gold mine the primary asset. Given the 39% premium St Barbara paid, plus some C$300m in capital required to lift production at Moose River, Macquarie downgrades to Underperform.
Target falls to $2.70 from $3.40.
Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If SBM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.28, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.7, implying annual growth of -30.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 28.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.5, implying annual growth of 2.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.74
Morgans rates SLC as Add (1) -
Superloop has advised that it was unable to agree to a transaction with QIC and the period of exclusivity has been discontinued. No acceptable offer emerged but Morgans suggests another bid is not entirely out of the question.
The broker believes the number one priority is growing the core digital infrastructure and the stock is worth buying at current levels, with or without the takeover bid. Add rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.11 from $2.64.
Target price is $2.11 Current Price is $1.74 Difference: $0.37
If SLC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.94, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -4.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates STO as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley notes Oil Search ((OSH)) has reported that Santos has acquired a 14.32% stake in P'nyang for $187m. This infers Santos has paid around US$0.30/mcf. Santos has not publicly commented at this stage.
Morgan Stanley considers the price attractive, reflecting the fact that P'nyang is located in a frontier that will be expensive to develop.
Overweight rating retained. Industry view: Attractive. Price target is $7.70.
Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $7.29 Difference: $0.41
If STO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.04, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 44.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 44.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.9, implying annual growth of 4.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates STO as Buy (1) -
Ord Minnett notes both Santos and Oil Search ((OSH)) have signed a binding letter of intent for Santos to farm into the P'nyang joint venture. Santos will acquire a 14.32% interest from existing participants. The price is US$187m and an agreement is expected to be completed around June.
The broker notes this means that ExxonMobil, which sold the largest stake to Santos, has a similar portion (37%) of both the PRL 3 and PRL 15 JV assets which underpin the PNG LNG expansion project.
Buy rating and $7.50 target maintained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $7.29 Difference: $0.21
If STO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.04, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.60 cents and EPS of 78.07 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.66 cents and EPS of 78.21 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.9, implying annual growth of 4.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $13.83
Credit Suisse rates SUN as Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse expects the increased natural hazards allowance and reinsurance cover for FY20 will reduce the downside risk to earnings. This should be a benefit by way of a reduced discount to Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)).
While encouraged by the additional allowance, the broker assesses this is effectively another re-set of the insurance margin. Moreover, at a time when the company is looking to provide increased earnings certainty it has left the market in the dark in regards to regulatory costs.
Credit Suisse maintains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $14.00 from $13.25.
Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $13.83 Difference: $0.17
If SUN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.11, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 68.00 cents and EPS of 82.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.7, implying annual growth of -9.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 72.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 74.00 cents and EPS of 90.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.2, implying annual growth of 24.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 74.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SYD SYDNEY AIRPORT HOLDINGS LIMITED
Infrastructure & Utilities
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Overnight Price: $7.82
Morgans rates SYD as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -
The share price has surged 20% since mid January. Morgans points out government bond rates falling to historical lows and the market appetite for yield were probably the key drivers. Weakness in short-term traffic growth appears to have been disregarded by the market.
The broker downgrades to Hold from Add as the share price has compressed the total return potential. Morgans notes significant valuation upside exists if the market starts to factor in a lower-for-longer interest rate scenario. Target rises to $7.61 from $7.55.
Target price is $7.61 Current Price is $7.82 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If SYD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.10, suggesting downside of -9.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 39.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of 6.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.4. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 40.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.2, implying annual growth of 9.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $61.36
Citi rates XRO as Neutral (3) -
Citi analysts spotted a "solid" FY19 result, noting for the first time ever subscriber growth internationally managed to outpace A&NZ. They forecast EBITDA (operational earnings) to grow at a 3-year CAGR of 47%.
Neutral rating retained as most (if not all) of the good news has by now already been priced in. But Citi does lift its price target to $61.50 from $44.50, as coverage is hereby transferred to another analyst.
Earnings estimates have been increased by single digits and there is a suggestion that management's free cash flow guidance might be "conservative".
Target price is $61.50 Current Price is $61.36 Difference: $0.14
If XRO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $52.75, suggesting downside of -14.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.23 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 438.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 44.67 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.1, implying annual growth of 243.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 127.6. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates XRO as Underperform (5) -
FY19 revenue was up 36% and operating earnings (EBITDA) up 52%. Credit Suisse points out this is the first result to break even and this will be a precursor of future reinvestment.
Regional performance was headlined by the UK, where there was a material step up in additions in the March half year. Momentum elsewhere was largely unchanged.
Credit Suisse continues to be impressed by the company's execution but retains Underperform on valuation. Target is raised to $41 from $35.
Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $61.36 Difference: minus $20.36 (current price is over target).
If XRO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $52.75, suggesting downside of -14.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.08 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 438.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 42.05 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.1, implying annual growth of 243.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 127.6. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates XRO as Neutral (3) -
Xero posted a strong FY19 result, underpinned by subscriber growth in offshore markets, particularly the UK (+48%). Operating leverage is beginning to show up in the numbers, the broker notes, with profit and free cash flow both positive for the first time.
The broker remains positive on strategy and execution but suggests the market is getting ahead of itself in pricing in strong offshore growth and cash generation. Neutral retained, target rises to $61 from $44 (change of analyst).
Target price is $61.00 Current Price is $61.36 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If XRO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $52.75, suggesting downside of -14.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 25.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 438.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 59.43 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.1, implying annual growth of 243.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 127.6. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates XRO as Overweight (1) -
FY19 results were broadly in line with Morgan Stanley's estimates. There was record subscriber growth in the UK. No specific guidance was provided. The broker notes the company continues to reinvest cash in order to grow.
Overweight rating and $50 target. Industry view is Attractive.
Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $61.36 Difference: minus $11.36 (current price is over target).
If XRO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $52.75, suggesting downside of -14.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 23.36 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 438.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 53.27 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.1, implying annual growth of 243.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 127.6. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates XRO as Downgrade to Lighten from Buy (4) -
The company reported a FY19 normalised net loss of -NZ$27.1m, weaker than Ord Minnett expected. Excluding the UK, the broker suspects investors may have shifted their focus to the US where growth was less than 10% half on half. This is typically more than 20%.
Ord Minnett downgrades to Lighten from Buy and increases the target to $53 from $49. The broker remains concerned that the stronger-than-expected growth in the UK could be a one-time benefit.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $53.00 Current Price is $61.36 Difference: minus $8.36 (current price is over target).
If XRO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $52.75, suggesting downside of -14.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 13.08 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 438.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 15.89 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.1, implying annual growth of 243.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 127.6. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates XRO as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -
The company has achieved positive free cash flow in FY19, which UBS suggests is representative of the end of a loss-making start-up period as Xero becomes a self-funding business.
While comfortable with the growth prospects and supportive of the strategy, the broker believes the valuation has overshot the level at which there is a fair risk/reward trade-off for investors.
Particularly in the context of a 10% re-rating on an essentially in-line result. Rating is, therefore, downgraded to Sell from Neutral. Target is raised to $50 from $47.
Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $61.36 Difference: minus $11.36 (current price is over target).
If XRO meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $52.75, suggesting downside of -14.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 18.69 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 438.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 69.15 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.1, implying annual growth of 243.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 127.6. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
ALL | ARISTOCRAT LEISURE | Deutsche Bank | 39.30 | 37.75 | 4.11% |
ALQ | ALS LIMITED | Morgans | 8.24 | 8.10 | 1.73% |
UBS | 8.50 | 8.70 | -2.30% | ||
CGC | COSTA GROUP | UBS | 6.70 | 6.80 | -1.47% |
CYB | CYBG | Macquarie | 5.30 | 4.90 | 8.16% |
DXS | DEXUS PROPERTY | Citi | 14.10 | 12.02 | 17.30% |
EXP | EXPERIENCE CO | Ord Minnett | 0.37 | 0.41 | -9.76% |
GWA | GWA GROUP | Deutsche Bank | 2.85 | 3.25 | -12.31% |
MGR | MIRVAC | Citi | 2.82 | 2.44 | 15.57% |
MYX | MAYNE PHARMA GROUP | Citi | 0.60 | 0.95 | -36.84% |
SBM | ST BARBARA | Citi | 3.60 | 3.30 | 9.09% |
Macquarie | 2.70 | 3.40 | -20.59% | ||
SLC | SUPERLOOP | Morgans | 2.11 | 2.64 | -20.08% |
SUN | SUNCORP | Credit Suisse | 14.00 | 13.25 | 5.66% |
SYD | SYDNEY AIRPORT | Morgans | 7.61 | 7.55 | 0.79% |
XRO | XERO | Citi | 61.50 | 44.60 | 37.89% |
Credit Suisse | 41.00 | 35.00 | 17.14% | ||
Macquarie | 61.00 | 44.00 | 38.64% | ||
Ord Minnett | 53.00 | 49.00 | 8.16% | ||
UBS | 50.00 | 47.00 | 6.38% |
Summaries
ALL | ARISTOCRAT LEISURE | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $27.08 |
ALQ | ALS LIMITED | Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $8.16 |
BHP | BHP | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $38.38 |
CGC | COSTA GROUP | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $5.01 |
CYB | CYBG | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.52 |
Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $3.52 | ||
DXS | DEXUS PROPERTY | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $13.01 |
EXP | EXPERIENCE CO | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $0.22 |
GWA | GWA GROUP | Downgrade to Sell from Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $3.11 |
GXY | GALAXY RESOURCES | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $1.65 |
IVC | INVOCARE | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $15.44 |
JHX | JAMES HARDIE | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $18.47 |
MYX | MAYNE PHARMA GROUP | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $0.58 |
RDY | READYTECH HOLDINGS | Initiation of coverage with Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.99 |
SBM | ST BARBARA | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $2.92 |
Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.92 | ||
SLC | SUPERLOOP | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.74 |
STO | SANTOS | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $7.29 |
Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $7.29 | ||
SUN | SUNCORP | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $13.83 |
SYD | SYDNEY AIRPORT | Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $7.82 |
XRO | XERO | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $61.36 |
Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $61.36 | ||
Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $61.36 | ||
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $61.36 | ||
Downgrade to Lighten from Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $61.36 | ||
Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $61.36 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 13 |
3. Hold | 8 |
4. Reduce | 1 |
5. Sell | 5 |
Friday 17 May 2019
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the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
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This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
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base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
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