Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates A1N as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie expects ARN Media will report a soft first half. The fundamental view is unchanged and the stock continues to offer an attractive dividend yield of 9-10%.

Yet Macquarie is cautious about the outlook for advertising markets although the company has shown flexibility in managing the cost base accordingly. Neutral rating reiterated. Target is reduced by -9% to $1.03.

Target price is $1.03 Current Price is $1.02 Difference: $0.005
If A1N meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AGL as Accumulate (2) -

AGL Energy released FY23 financials earlier today and Ord Minnett, upon initial assessment, acknowledges key items are all higher than the broker's forecasts.

The headline result shows a statutory loss because of -$680m in impairments and a negative movement in the value of financial instruments, the broker explains.

Management has stuck with earlier communicated guidance. Hold. Target $12.80.

Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $11.58 Difference: $1.22
If AGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.76, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AIZ as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie expects Air New Zealand's capacity in FY24 will be at 96% of pre-pandemic levels with competition for all segments excluding the Americas remaining subdued.

The broker expects pre-tax profit will be down -30% in FY24, reflecting a softening in demand and competition delivering lower yields. Nevertheless, Macquarie's ticket price database still signals strong pricing for the upcoming peak summer period.

Outperform and NZ90c target retained.

Current Price is $0.72. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ALQ as Add (1) -

Morgans updates its forecasts for information released on July 26 at ALS Ltd's AGM, which included 1H underlying profit guidance that missed forecasts by the broker and consensus by -5%.

The broker anticipates downside risk for earnings in the Commodities division given a volume decline and macro-economic uncertainty, and lowers its target to $13.35 from $13.75.

Despite slowing volumes, the management's outlook for the Geochemistry division was unchanged on margin resilience.

Nonetheless, the stock currently offers value, in the analyst's view, and the Add rating is maintained.

Target price is $13.35 Current Price is $12.02 Difference: $1.33
If ALQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.66, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

It is Citi's view that AMP's interim report, released earlier today, revealed a "strong beat" against both its own forecasts and market consensus. The third tranche of capital returns has been paused, however.

Management's goal to reduce costs by -$120m is a lot more ambitious than what the analysts dare to pencil in by FY25. No surprise, Citi thinks the market might be a bit sceptical about achieving it.

Among negatives mentioned are ongoing potential for litigation and guidance for costs to rise in H2.

Neutral rating and $1.15 target.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.05
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.14, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMP as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnet's initial response post today's FY23 release by AMP indicates the underlying profit has beaten market expectations while a dividend of 2.5c (20% franked) has been declared when none was anticipated.

As explained by the broker, the statutory result predominantly reflects the net gain of $209m on the sale of the International Infrastructure Equity business and the Real Estate and Domestic Infrastructure Equity business, and SuperConcepts, and in 1H22 the gain on sale of the Infrastructure Debt platform of $390m.

The underlying Net Profit After Tax of $112m was similar to the interim last year. Accumulate. Target $1.35.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.25
If AMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.14, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BLD as Sell (5) -

Upon initial assessment, Citi analysts observe Boral's FY23 result marks a solid beat of the consensus forecast; by 8%, with sales overall largely in line with expectations.

Citi analysts believe the real surprise was in flat energy costs, which assisted a better-than-forecast margin.

At face value, it appears guidance for FY24 will lead to small increases to forecasts but Citi suggests, looking at the share price, this might already be in the price.

Target/valuation $3.60, of which 82c relates to value of properties. Sell.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $4.37 Difference: minus $0.77 (current price is over target).
If BLD meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.82, suggesting downside of -19.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BLD as Hold (3) -

Boral's FY23 financial performance proved much better than market consensus and forecasts at Ord Minnett.

Upon initial assessment, the broker lauds the performance and notes significant improvement can be observed across all key metrics.

Lighten. Target $3.60.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $4.37 Difference: minus $0.77 (current price is over target).
If BLD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.82, suggesting downside of -19.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BLD as Neutral (3) -

UBS's initial assessment is that Boral delivered a solid "beat" with the release of FY23 financials earlier this morning. Guidance for FY24 places current forecasts near the bottom of the guided range of $270m-300m in EBIT.

The broker suggests the strong 2H was helped by a strong Asphalt and Quarries performance. UBS continues to look for upside risk from additional price increases.

Neutral. Target $4.39.

Target price is $4.39 Current Price is $4.37 Difference: $0.02
If BLD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.82, suggesting downside of -19.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BPT as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie asserts a "decisive" switch in chief executives will come as a shock to many in Beach Energy yet believes it was necessary to reposition the company for a better corporate performance over the longer term as a new strategy needs to be formulated after several disappointing years.

The broker suggests investors should view the announcement positively. Beach Energy has appointed Brett Woods as CEO, previously President-Upstream, effective February 2024, with Morne Engelbrecht departing immediately.

At the FY23 results on August 14 Macquarie expects FY24 guidance could disappoint, although a higher dividend should be a positive. Neutral rating and $1.50 target maintained.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.66 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.92, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BSL as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes, following a period of elevated prices, US steel spreads have started to normalise while East Asian spreads remain depressed despite some optimism regarding potential Chinese stimulus.

The broker assumes BlueScope Steel's US spreads settle in the upper end of the normal range in FY24-26 as new capacity comes on line while continuing to factor in a more conservative Australian outlook.

At the results on August 21 UBS expects BlueScope Steel will deliver a first half EBIT of $604m, below consensus. Neutral rating retained. Target is raised to $21.80 from $20.80.

Target price is $21.80 Current Price is $21.01 Difference: $0.79
If BSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.63, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -

Citi retains its Sell rating and $82.50 target for CommBank following FY23 cash earnings of $10,164m, a slight beat versus forecasts by the broker and consensus.

While sentiment was boosted by a better-than-expected exit net interest margin (NIM) and DPS, along with a $1bn buyback, the analyst forecasts falling core earnings, which will further elevate the price earnings multiple.

The broker also notes a surprising lack of definitive outlook commentary re the NIM or any strategy to contain accelerating costs. As the dividend yield is around the the risk-free rate of return, there's considered little compensation for equity risk.

Target price is $82.50 Current Price is $104.85 Difference: minus $22.35 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $91.08, suggesting downside of -12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CBA as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie observes the consistent performance and strong balance sheet for CommBank continue to provide support to the share price yet with limited scope for earnings growth and a 19x FY24 PE multiple it is difficult to justify.

While margin trends appear to be stabilising, amid reduced deposit mix shift and less intense mortgage competition, the broker assesses higher underlying costs are continuing to affect performance. Underperform rating and $88 target maintained.

Target price is $88.00 Current Price is $104.85 Difference: minus $16.85 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $91.08, suggesting downside of -12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley assesses a solid FY23 result for CommBank showing a better-than-forecast 4Q margin and operating trends in line with expectations.

Another $1bn buyback was announced and the $2.40/share final dividend exceeded the analyst's $2.35 estimate. Based on the broker's forecasts, the Board should keep the dividend payout ratio near the top end of the 70-80% target range in the medium term.

To reflect better near-term loan loss outcomes and lower pre-provision profit, Morgan Stanley adjusts its EPS forecasts for FY24 and FY25 by 2% and -2.5%, respectively.

The target rises to $85.50 from $82.50. Underweight. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $85.50 Current Price is $104.85 Difference: minus $19.35 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $91.08, suggesting downside of -12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CBA as Hold (3) -

While the DPS outlook for CommBank has increased with a higher payout ratio, Morgans leaves its FY24 cash EPS forecast unchanged and reduces its FY25-26 estimates by -2% due to higher costs and smaller-than-expected buybacks.

Nonetheless, the broker praises the bank's ongoing asset quality strength and capital management initiatives, which included a material uplift in dividend and a new $1bn share buyback.

The final dividend increased by 14% on the previous corresponding period to $2.40/share fully franked, ahead of consensus expectations.

The broker's target falls to $95.50 from $95.77. Hold.

Target price is $95.50 Current Price is $104.85 Difference: minus $9.35 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $91.08, suggesting downside of -12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CBA as Lighten (4) -

CommBank's record FY23 net profit was marginally below Ord Minnett's forecasts with the main reason being higher-than-expected operating and bad debt expenses. Actual losses were very small, with the bank adding another $600m to provisions in the second half.

The broker believes the bank is well provisioned and the release of provisions could keep bad debts removing materially higher than long-term averages.

That said, Ord Minnett suspects higher bad debts and softer margins will mean earnings soften in FY24. Lighten rating. Target is raised to $90 from $87.

Target price is $90.00 Current Price is $104.85 Difference: minus $14.85 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $91.08, suggesting downside of -12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CBA as Neutral (3) -

UBS assesses the better-than-expected dividend and $1bn buyback underpinned the CommBank share price performance after a largely in-line FY23 result.

The issue of net interest margins is a hotly debated topic in the Australian market, the broker points out, with a number of drivers. More rational deposit competition appears to be occurring and the broker expects a shallower retail funding costs component.

Cash earnings numbers are decreased -1.4% for FY24 and raised by 4.2% for FY25. Neutral maintained. Target rises to $105 from $100.

Target price is $105.00 Current Price is $104.85 Difference: $0.15
If CBA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $91.08, suggesting downside of -12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CMW as Accumulate (2) -

Market conditions have deteriorated, prompting Ord Minnett to adjust assumptions for Cromwell Property.

The broker had already factored in an equity raising and asset sales to reduce debt but the Ukraine war has persisted which undermines the ability to sell the company's retail assets in neighbouring Poland.

Moreover, Ord Minnett assesses look-through gearing of 47% is too high and must be reduced.

The securities screen as undervalued although the broker notes numerous large office A-REITs with stronger balance sheets also screen significantly undervalued at present. Accumulate maintained. Target is reduced to $0.85 from $0.90.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.32
If CMW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DXI as Outperform (1) -

Dexus Industria REIT's FY23 results were in line with Macquarie's estimates. The broker observes recent divestments have freed up additional capacity on the balance sheet for deployment to developments, which are higher returning in terms of cash flow.

The broker considers the company's longer-term strategy favourable as fundamentals underpin industrial segments. Outperform rating  retained. Target is reduced to $3.04 from $3.09.

Target price is $3.04 Current Price is $2.79 Difference: $0.25
If DXI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

Following a site visit, Citi notes labour turnover is now sitting at just over 20% at the Mungari operations compared to low/mid 40% around 12 months ago.

The focus of the visit was on the integration of the Kundana assets (no longer separate sites for Kundana and East Kundana) and the geological potential to mine laterally along strike.

Management detailed plans for ore sources to feed the expanded 4.2Mtpa past 2038 and sustain 200kozpa past FY32.

The Neutral rating and $3.60 target are unchanged.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.75 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.43, suggesting downside of -8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

UBS has visited the Mungari mine, noting the mill expansion has meant processing capacity will lift to 4.2mtpa from 2mtpa for $250m in capital expenditure.

While Mungari is only 8% of the valuation of Evolution Mining, the broker points out this is a significant expansion in order to lift production levels to 200,000ozpa and extend mine life to 2038, so it is an important contributor to future plans.

Post elevated expenditure over FY23 the company is now considered in a better position versus some gold peers but as the stock is trading at a premium to the $3.40 target the Neutral rating is unchanged.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.75 Difference: minus $0.35 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.43, suggesting downside of -8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FPR as Outperform (1) -

Reading through from results at Custom Fleet, Macquarie notes demand continues to outperform internal targets for client EV acceptance.

As a result, EV volumes and yield represent upside risk to earnings forecasts for FleetPartners Group. Outperform rating and $2.84 target maintained.

Target price is $2.84 Current Price is $2.66 Difference: $0.18
If FPR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.80, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GUD as Buy (1) -

To reflect the divestment of Davey Water Products, Citi lowers its FY24 and FY25 profit forecasts, which is more than offset by lower net debt and higher market multiples, and the target rises to $12.79 from $12.69.

G.U.D. Holdings now becomes a pure play auto parts supplier, explains the broker, with the divestment expected to drive earnings margin accretion of around 100bps at the group level. Buy.

Target price is $12.79 Current Price is $10.15 Difference: $2.64
If GUD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.76, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IEL as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Macquarie expects a soft result when IDP Education reports on August 23, suspecting consensus is over estimating multi-destination student placement volumes.

The broker forecasts Australian volume growth of 49%. Meanwhile, discounting of competing tests by distributors suggests the IELTS industry may be getting more competitive in price.

With an expensive multiple and expected downgrades to margins and IELTS volumes, Macquarie downgrades the stock to Underperform from Neutral. Target is steady at $21.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $24.28 Difference: minus $3.28 (current price is over target).
If IEL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.83, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IVC as Equal-weight (3) -

Yesterday, InvoCare entered into a scheme implementation deed with TPG Capital for $12.70 in cash, inclusive of a fully frankled special dividend up to 60cps. This results in an implied value of $12.96 (including the franking credits), explains Morgan Stanley.

The board of InvoCare unanimously recommends shareholders vote in favour of the deed, which is expected to be implemented this November.

Equal-weight rating and $10.25 target price retained. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $10.25 Current Price is $12.48 Difference: minus $2.23 (current price is over target).
If IVC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.95, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IVC as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett expects the takeover by TPG Global of InvoCare is likely to proceed now a scheme implementation deed has been entered.

The broker believes TPG is capitalising on share price weakness following disappointing results in 2022 and the price of $12.70 cash undervalues InvoCare's strong competitive position and dominant market share.

Nevertheless, the broker lowers the target to $12.70 from $14.50 and retains an Accumulate rating.

Target price is $12.70 Current Price is $12.48 Difference: $0.22
If IVC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.95, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IVC as No Rating (-1) -

InvoCare has entered into a scheme implementation deed with TPG for the latter to acquire all shares for $12.70 cash. This includes a fully franked special dividend of up to $0.60.

UBS points out the background is challenging and market volumes have softened with the impact of the flu season in 2023 comparatively benign, to date.

Despite negative margin impacts from operating deleverage on the back of weaker volumes and ongoing inflation, the broker observes volatility has reduced in the first half and case averages have remained strong.

UBS is currently restricted on providing a rating or target.

Current Price is $12.48. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $11.95, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JLG as Outperform (1) -

As Johns Lyng's most comparable listed peer, Macquarie notes FirstService Corp is still experiencing a backlog of storm-related reconstruction work.

Johns Lyng's US sales grew 20% sequentially in the first half and the read-through points to supportive market conditions despite a slowdown in storm-related revenue. Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and $7.70 target.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $5.37 Difference: $2.33
If JLG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.00, suggesting upside of 27.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KMD as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie reviews the June quarter trends and remains cautious about the outlook for KMD Brands as it needs to defend tough comparables over 2023 and there are ongoing macro pressures.

The broker's FY23 expectations are in line with guidance and FY24 forecasts are -11% below consensus, given the cautious outlook for sales and margins in a softening consumer climate. Neutral rating and $0.90 target maintained.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.84 Difference: $0.065
If KMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.90, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PNR as Speculative Buy (1) -

Pantoro has completed a $30m equity raising which should alleviate any risks for the short term for the balance sheet/working capital, Ord Minnett asserts.

The capital raising is incorporated and the FY24 outlook adjusted, with the target reduced to $0.10 from $0.12.

Given the de-risking elements associated with this capital raising and the current value proposition the broker considers this an attractive investment further down the curve. Speculative Buy retained.

Target price is $0.10 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.045
If PNR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 82% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QBE as Buy (1) -

At first glance, it appears QBE Insurance's H1 net profit missed Citi's forecast by some -$49m, but the analysts believe it can be explained through a higher tax rate.

The 14c interim dividend, however, falls short of the broker's 15.5c forecast. Citi analysts seem to be left with a mixed feeling about today's release.

They do not expect much in terms of share price response as indications are the insurer is performing reasonably well. Target $17.30. Buy.

Target price is $17.30 Current Price is $15.60 Difference: $1.7
If QBE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.67, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates REA as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie observes REA Group has had a "stellar" performance following the listings upgrades and the benefit to valuation of the residential cycle. The broker acknowledges it underestimated this, having assumed the fixed-rate mortgages roll-off would affect sentiment.

At this stage, Macquarie considers the stock fully valued with limited upside and reiterates an Underperform rating. Target is raised to $135 from $91, largely stemming from a shift to the mid point of valuation ranges and a more optimistic view on the housing cycle.

Target price is $135.00 Current Price is $159.48 Difference: minus $24.48 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $136.10, suggesting downside of -14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGM as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

UBS notes, following a period of elevated prices, US steel spreads have started to normalise while East Asian spreads remain depressed despite some optimism regarding potential Chinese stimulus.

The broker downgrades Sims to Sell from Neutral given a weakening scrap price and volume outlook that should lead to significant downside risk to FY24 consensus EBIT.

The company is likely to benefit from strategies to drive longer-term earnings from business models that enable the "circular economy" but UBS believes this is will not be significant over the next five years. Target is reduced to $13.60 from $16.30.

Target price is $13.60 Current Price is $14.80 Difference: minus $1.2 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.14, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUN as Buy (1) -

Citi looks beyond the disappointment of a lower final dividend and increased bank separation costs, revealed by Suncorp Group's FY23 results, and highlights increasing revenue growth and upcoming momentum in FY24.

The analyst believes insurance rate rises may have accelerated in the 2H of FY23, particularly in motor. The lower dividend is considered a one-off as the payout would have been higher if the bank sale had not been blocked by the ACCC.

To reflect growing revenue and strong investment earnings, the broker raises its FY24 and FY25 EPS forecasts by 4% and 7%, respectively, and lifts its target to $15.40 from $14.90. Buy.

Target price is $15.40 Current Price is $13.54 Difference: $1.86
If SUN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.23, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SUN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Suncorp Group reduced its FY23 dividend to account for the delay in the sale of the bank and questions surround the amount of dividend in the first half of FY24.

Bank interest margins and CTIs are forecast to deteriorate in FY24 yet, with the sale of the bank still pending, the broker suspects this will not be in focus.

The main bright spot in the results were the stronger gross written premium growth forecasts for FY24.

The broker prefers Insurance Australia Group for the next six months despite the attractiveness of relative valuation. Target is raised to $17.20 from $16.60 and an Outperform rating is maintained.

Target price is $17.20 Current Price is $13.54 Difference: $3.66
If SUN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.23, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley assesses solid FY23 earnings that were in line with consensus, for Suncorp Group and highlights personal lines pricing is increasing by 15-20%, investment yields are at around 5% and claims inflation looks to be peaking.

On the flipside, the analyst notes softish FY24 guidance across General Insurance and the bank, while the dividend was a miss for the 2H and FY23 by -35% and -20%, respectively.

The broker retains its Overweight rating and $15.70 target. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $15.70 Current Price is $13.54 Difference: $2.16
If SUN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.23, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SUN as Add (1) -

While Suncorp Group's FY23 profit was in line with consensus, Morgans identifies more negatives than positives. A stronger-than-expected performance for Insurance Australia offset weaker performances in the bank and New Zealand.

The 27cps final dividend was a miss versus the consensus expectation for 40cps due to the potential impact of a more difficult reinsurance environment, explains the analyst.

While revenue was considered strong for General Insurance, motor claims inflation is still lingering, observes the broker.

The Add rating is unchanged and the target rises to $14.55 from $14.32.

Target price is $14.55 Current Price is $13.54 Difference: $1.01
If SUN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.23, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SUN as Hold (3) -

Suncorp Group's FY23 cash profit was slightly below Ord Minnett forecasts, largely due to the NZ insurance profit being far weaker because of natural hazard events. Underpinning the result was the Australian insurance division where profit rose to $755m.

The broker observes the rising cost of insurance and cost of living pressures could mean increased switching by customers but at present the industry is re-pricing to improve profitability to an reasonable level.

Ord Minnett considers the return on equity of 9.6% was hardly high enough to invite increased competition, and policy cancellations or downgrading could be a bigger threat to volume and profit in the short term. Hold rating retained. Target is $13.50.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $13.54 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If SUN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.23, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SUN as Buy (1) -

While reducing Suncorp Group's bank segment forecasts UBS points out its valuation remains pinned to the sale proceeds, despite lower confidence in an ultimate sale since the ACCC rejected the ANZ Bank takeover.

The insurance net profit in FY23 was ahead of expectations which balanced out a shortfall versus forecasts for the bank. UBS notes margin quality improved, likely driven by Australian home insurance as claims inflation remains low while motor margins were well below target.

UBS retains a Buy rating and $15 target.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $13.54 Difference: $1.46
If SUN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.23, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SYM as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley raises its target to $2.85 from $2.30 for Symbio Holdings as shares will likely trade less in line with the business and more towards the $2.85 indicative proposal by Superloop ((SLC)).

The broker points to additional upside risk from counter-bids, leverage to a near-term share price rise for Superloop and potential for Symbio Holdings shareholders to benefit from post completion synergies.

Overweight. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.61 Difference: $0.24
If SYM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TLC as Buy (1) -

Citi is forecasting a 3% increase in earnings (EBIT) to $623m for Lottery Corp when its FY23 result is released on August 23.

While the $5.70 target unchanged, the broker's conviction has increased on the stock since initiating coverage in May, due to a Powerball price increases in that month. Also, higher jackpots are not resulting in cannabalisation between Powerball and Oz Lotto.

Oz Lotto’s $50m jackpot last October had a lift in revenue consistent with what the broker sees in Powerball. Buy.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $5.29 Difference: $0.41
If TLC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.48, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TLX as Buy (1) -

The first patient has now been dosed with TLX101 in a phase 1 study to evaluate safety and tolerance end points in those with newly-diagnosed glioblastoma.

This is a universally fatal disease and in the US Bell Potter expects minimum reimbursement of US$250,000 per patient should the drug receive approval.

The catalyst in the short term for Telix Pharmaceuticals will be the half year report and the broker's Buy rating and $14 target are maintained.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $10.23 Difference: $3.77
If TLX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates VIT as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter has monitored the latest authorised prescriber data for medicinal cannabis consumption across Australia and noted the potential for driving legislation changes to provide a potential catalyst for broader adoption of treatments.

The portfolio of products along with the existing pharmacy network positions Vitura Health to capture growth in the industry. Bell Potter retains a Buy rating and $0.90 target.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: $0.45
If VIT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WDS as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett considers the sale of 10% of Scarborough to LNG Japan value affirming, welcome, and a long time coming.

In addition to further enhancing Woodside Energy's balance sheet the deal also means LNG Japan enters a non-binding agreement to purchase 900,000 metric tonnes of LNG for 10 years from 2026. This further reduces the risk around offtake.

The broker retains an Accumulate rating and $45 target.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $38.29 Difference: $6.71
If WDS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.58, suggesting downside of -6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WES as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes DIY hardware demand, as per commentary from Metcash ((MTS)) is softening relative to trade and this may be a headwind for Bunnings.

Kmart Group is likely to win share from specialty retailers although declining basket sizes are likely to weigh on overall sales growth.

Macquarie expects Officeworks will continue to benefit from its higher margin products while in the health division margins are likely to come under pressure as competition has intensified. The broker retains a Neutral rating and $52 target for Wesfarmers.

Target price is $52.00 Current Price is $49.87 Difference: $2.13
If WES meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $48.75, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WTC as Neutral (3) -

While visibility on new contracts is low, Macquarie finds no evidence that WiseTech Global will not continue to win business in the next 12-24 months.

Moreover, the broker believes the potential for price rises is high as CargoWise costs represent less than 50 basis points of revenue for the large, global customers.

Still, valuation remains the key hurdle for the broker and a Neutral rating is reiterated. Target is raised to $90 from $57 to reflect higher cash flows in outer periods.

Target price is $90.00 Current Price is $88.40 Difference: $1.6
If WTC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $82.68, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources