Australian Broker Call

Citi rates AIA as Buy (1) -

The Commerce Commission, regulator for Auckland International Airport's aeronautical business, has released a draft report on the PSE4 pricing review for the company.

While finding management's intended capital investment program is necessary, the commission's estimate of a reasonable return implies a -14-17% price reduction for the company's targeted return of 8.73%, explains Citi.

The broker notes a small share price dip in reaction to the news is fair, and a final report is due for release “no later than Q1 2025”. It's felt clarity around PSE4 pricing will be key to realising share price upside.

A Buy rating is retained with a NZ$9.20 target price.

Current Price is $7.05. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $8.25, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AIA as Outperform (1) -

While supporting Auckland International Airport's capex plan in the PSE4 draft pricing decision, the Commerce Commission believes management is targeting an excessive return of 8.73%, explains Macquarie.

The Commission's P50 weighted average cost of capital (WACC) range is between 7.27%-7.51%, notes the analyst, suggesting around $200m of excess revenue over PSE4.

In an unlikely worst-case scenario, Macquarie suggests the company would need to lower aeronautical pricing over FY26 and FY27 by -15% and -13%, respectively. 

The Outperform rating and NZ$9.22 target are maintained.

Current Price is $7.05. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $8.25, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AMP as Buy (1) -

Citi remains optimistic AMP has turned a corner. It seems as if AMP’s businesses have largely stabilised and the broker soon expects the restoration of an ongoing dividend policy.

AMP currently has some $415m of surplus capital over and above that assigned to its ongoing buyback. Citi forecasts reasonable profit growth even if a fair proportion is cost driven and does not really come through at a business unit level until FY25.

Although valid investor concerns about the bank remain, the broker still expects these positive factors to eventually move AMP’s share price higher. However, if AMP could materially improve its platform flows, Citi thinks this would be a bigger swing factor.

Buy and $1.25 target retained.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.1
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.13, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AVL as Buy (1) -

With coal-fired power retiring earlier than expected, Shaw and Partners notes that while lithium-ion batteries have cornered the market for EVs and short duration storage, they are too expensive and not suited for longer durations.

Vanadium Flow Batteries are a large scale, long duration, fit-for-purpose solution for grid storage. Australian Vanadium has completed the first phase of the Optimised Feasibility Study for its Australian Vanadium Project following the merger with Technology Metals in February 2024.

The government's Future Made in Australia policy offers production tax credits for green hydrogen and critical minerals, including battery supply chains, the broker notes. Shaw retains Buy and an 8c target.

Target price is $0.08 Current Price is $0.02 Difference: $0.064
If AVL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 400% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

Ahead of FY24 results for Aurizon Holdings on August 12, UBS lowers forecasts due to weaker-than-expected coal volumes.

Based on the broker's proprietary coal export data, the analyst observes industry volumes in Queensland fell by -6% year-on-year in the 2H of FY24 following wet season disruption, and NSW growth also softened.

While UBS and consensus previously expected FY24 earnings (EBITDA) at the upper end of management's guidance range of between $1,590-1,680m, the broker now sees some downside risk to this level.

Neutral retained. The target slips to $3.70 from $3.80.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.70 Difference: $0
If AZJ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.90, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Buy (1) -

After reflecting further on yesterday's June quarter production numbers for BHP Group (following an early opinion summarised below), Citi maintains a Buy rating and lowers the target by -$1.00 to $47.50. 

Yesterday's response:

In an early response to BHP Group's quarterly production update released earlier this morning, Citi analysts conclude FY24 has finished with a strong performance for the Big Australian.

Citi's quarterly forecasts have been beaten across all key divisions. Management has guided towards the upper half of cost ranges for Spence and WAIO.

FY25 production outlook remains relatively flat. The Nickel West EBITDA loss will be circa -$300m in FY24. The broker highlights exceptional items will also include a gain on coal sale of US$650-$750m plus -US$300m impairment at Nickel West.

Target price is $47.50 Current Price is $42.70 Difference: $4.8
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.67, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie was pleased by BHP Group's performance on copper, as shown in the 4Q operational report. While FY25 metallurgical coal guidance missed expectation, the broker points to a partial offset via price impacts in a tight low-volume market.

Management's FY25 production guidance for iron ore and copper was broadly in line with the broker's forecasts.

The Neutral rating and $43 target are unchanged. Macquarie continues to prefer BHP in Australia due to the superior asset quality and a better relative valuation.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $42.70 Difference: $0.3
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.67, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Equal-weight (3) -

Strong production and higher costs closed out FY24 for BHP Group, Morgan Stanley notes, while FY25 guidance disappointed, driven by coal. Iron ore and copper production were in line, while met/thermal coal posted significant misses.

Despite the broker forecasting net debt in the lower half of the target range, the forecast dividend payout ratio is cut to 50% from 55%, given risks around Samarco settlements.

Equal-weight target retained, target falls to $46.30 from $46.65. The broker prefers Rio Tinto ((RIO)). Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $46.30 Current Price is $42.70 Difference: $3.6
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.67, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BHP as Add (1) -

BHP Group's June Q result was even better than Morgans' upbeat assumptions and went underrated by the market in the broker's view. FY24 was a record for WA iron ore, and copper production was the highest in 15 years.

Even more impressive is WA iron ore’s cost performance, suggests Morgans.

The broker has made small adjustments to forward assumptions based on FY25 guidance and management outlook commentary, and has marked some metal prices to market. This results in a target increase to $49.20 from $48.30. Add, and number one preference in iron ore, retained.

Target price is $49.20 Current Price is $42.70 Difference: $6.5
If BHP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.67, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Accumulate (2) -

BHP Group posted a solid June-quarter production report to end FY24, Ord Minnett suggests, as output of all its commodities either met or exceeded expectations in the period.

The broker expects the market will have to upgrade earnings estimates and cut net debt forecasts given favourable comments from management on cash flow.

Guidance for the key Western Australia Iron Ore business for FY25 met consensus expectations, although forecasts for the met coal and copper divisions fell short.

Ord Minnett suggests BHP will exercise extra caution when considering its final dividend given the pending Samarco settlement. Accumulate and $45 target retained.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $42.70 Difference: $2.3
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.67, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

BHP Group's 4Q production was "strong" according to UBS, as all segments either matched or exceeded FY24 expectations, though FY25 guidance was softer-than-expected.

Shipments of iron ore in Q4 were in line with forecasts by the broker and consensus, while FY25 guidance for between 282-294mt is flat year-on-year and shy of the consensus forecast.

The broker now anticipates a 2H dividend of US69cps, which is around -11% below the US77cps consensus estimate. 

UBS expects management to lift capex materially in FY25/26, the outlook for China/iron ore is uncertain, and net debt is still at the top end of the targeted range.

The target falls to $43 from $44 and the Neutral rating remains.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $42.70 Difference: $0.3
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.67, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BSL as Buy (1) -

Despite expected weak 2H demand, industry feedback suggests to UBS the decline in US spreads is nearing an end, with low service centre inventories likely to drive a restock.

BlueScope Steel's earnings continue to be driven by North America, notes the analyst. East Asian spreads remain largely depressed, and management continues to rely on value added measures to drive earnings in Australia, explains the analyst.

The target falls to $25 from $26.70. Buy.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $21.23 Difference: $3.77
If BSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.26, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CXO as Neutral (3) -

Management at Core Lithium had already pre-reported 4Q production numbers. Operating costs were materially better than Macquarie was expecting as there were no mining costs incurred during the period. The cash position is considered solid and there is no debt.

The Finniss mine has now been transitioned into care and maintenance and the company is pivoting back to being an explorer during FY25, explains the broker.

Neutral rating. The target rises to 10c from 9c due to a short-term uplift for the broker's EPS forecast and a valuation roll-forward.

Target price is $0.10 Current Price is $0.11 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If CXO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DMP as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie lowers its FY24-26 EPS forecasts for Domino's Pizza Enterprises by -2%, -5% and -8%, respectively, resulting in a -9.8% lower target price of $37, driven by store closures in France and Japan due to tough markets.

While near-term expectations have been lowered, the broker suggests management's focus on improving store profitability is wise.

The analyst believes FY23 will be the trough for earnings, and a forecast earnings compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.5% over FY24-27 will support deleverage.

The Neutral rating is unchanged.

Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $36.09 Difference: $0.91
If DMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.83, suggesting upside of 26.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DMP as Overweight (1) -

Domino's Pizza Enterprises has provided a market update outlining store closures in France/Japan and implications for net store additions over the medium/long term.

In aggregate, stores being closed in France/Japan are loss-making, Morgan Stanley notes. Closures will be earnings positive for France, while in Japan benefits are to be re-invested.

The broker sees Japan store closures as a step in the right direction in addressing ongoing market underperformance. Target falls to $45 from $47, Overweight retained.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $36.09 Difference: $8.91
If DMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.83, suggesting upside of 26.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DMP as Neutral (3) -

As part of a trading update and FY25 outlook statement, management at Domino's Pizza Enterprises revealed the closure of around -90 (net) stores across France and Japan (around -60), observes UBS.

In April, management acknowledged the 67% expansion in Japanese stores from FY20-23 resulted in a larger weighting of immature stores in under-penetrated markets.

While the company reiterated its 7100 store network target, the broker forecasts lower FY24-26 store growth will push out the previous timeline of 2033.

Neutral. Target falls to $36.50 from $39.

Target price is $36.50 Current Price is $36.09 Difference: $0.41
If DMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.83, suggesting upside of 26.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVN as Buy (1) -

In an initial response, Citi notes there was not a lot new in today's quarterly result from Evolution Mining given a FY24 update was provided. FY25 guidance usually comes pre-June Q but this time we have to wait till the results on 14-August.

Evolution has given FY25 metrics for most sites, excluding detailed major capex, but consensus costs still look too low to the broker.

Investor interest has been on risk that Red Lake prints an impairment which Citi thinks is unlikely given the reserve base. Gearing is 25% which the market should like, and the dividend should beat. Buy and $4.40 target retained.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.98 Difference: $0.42
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.02, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie raises its target for Fortescue by 16% to $14.50 after management announced the focus will turn to renewable energy and away from green hydrogen. The broker praises this timely decision ahead of a deteriorating iron ore price environment.

The analyst, who has been a long-time critic of the green hydrogen venture, now forecasts lower spending on R&D and hydrogen capex, along with falling overhead estimates as management strives to operate a leaner business. Underperform.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $22.36 Difference: minus $7.86 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.28, suggesting downside of -8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates GMD as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners upgrades gold price forecasts to US$3,000/oz in 2025 and 2026 and expects recent outperformance in ASX-listed gold equities to continue.

The broker cites lower bond yields ahead, elevated levels of US debt, strong central bank buying of gold and geopolitical tensions as drivers.

Buy retained for Genesis Minerals, target lifts to $2.75 from $2.30.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.16 Difference: $0.59
If GMD meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.23, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GPT as Equal-weight (3) -

GPT Group shares are up 13% in the last week, Morgan Stanley notes, outperforming the ASX200 REITs by 6% over the same period. The global rate outlook has softened, and GPT is a key beneficiary of the trade into rate-sensitive stocks, given its sector proxy split of 35/35/30 Office/Retail/Industrial.

GPT is now at a premium to the valuation implied by pure-play peers in each sector, at the top end of its typical trading range. Management changes could unlock opportunity, the broker suggests, however, on a relative basis, upside may be limited.

Equal-weight and $4.70 target retained. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.61 Difference: $0.09
If GPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.74, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IMD as Neutral (3) -

Junior miners previously accounted for around 20% of Imdex's revenue, and they represent a crucial missing piece when it comes to a step change in overall exploration, according to Citi.

The broker was commenting after junior financings declined sequentially in June, falling below US$1bn.

While industry feedback is turning incrementally positive, in the analysts' view, timing of a rebound currently remains opaque.

The Neutral rating and $2 target are unchanged.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $2.19 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If IMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.17, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JIN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley has added Jumbo Interactive to its list of small cap outperformance convictions ahead of result season.

The broker cites a 20% step-up in total jackpot sales volumes, a Powerball price increase of 10c/game in addition to The Lottery Co's ((TLC)) price rise, and a reacceleration of digital share in 1H24 as to why it sees little revenue downside risk, a key point of differentiation versus most consumer stocks.

Given Jumbo's history of cost management, Morgan Stanley sees limited earnings risk for FY24. Overweight and $20.80 target retained. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $20.80 Current Price is $16.03 Difference: $4.77
If JIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.17, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MGX as Outperform (1) -

Mount Gibson Iron's 4Q shipments and costs missed Macquarie's forecasts by -11% and -38%, respectively.

The mid-point of FY25 production guidance also came in -35% below expectation due to depletion of high-grade stockpiles and remediation work, explains the broker.

Due to EPS forecast downgrades, the analyst's target falls to 48c from 50c. Outperform.

Any updates on the use of the company's $436m cash balance will be a potential share price catalyst, suggests the broker.

Target price is $0.48 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: $0.095
If MGX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NEM as Outperform (1) -

Preliminary data for Newmont Corp's minority share in Barrick Gold-managed assets were weaker than consensus expectations, notes Macquarie.

This outcome implies Newmont's 2Q production is circa -2.5% lower-than-forecast by the broker.

Outperform rating retained. Macquarie's target falls by -$2 to $81 due to a higher Australian dollar.

Target price is $81.00 Current Price is $71.54 Difference: $9.46
If NEM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NEM as Accumulate (2) -

Barrick Gold's June Q result showed Newmont’s share of production from the JV assets – the Nevada JV, of which Newmont owns 38.5%, and the Pueblo Viejo JV in the Dominican Republic, of which Newmont owns 40% – was some -9% below consensus forecasts.

Ord Minnett's June quarter production forecast falls -2% and operating earnings estimate falls -1%. Despite the second quarter 2024 weakness, Barrick has indicated that there will be stronger production in the second half of the year.

Newmont remains a prime investment choice in the gold space in Ord Minnett's view, and the broker forecasts production and earnings growth in 2025 as recent operational issues are gradually resolved over the course of this year.

Accumulate and $80 target retained.

Target price is $80.00 Current Price is $71.54 Difference: $8.46
If NEM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PPS as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Praemium’s June Q update was below Ord Minnett's expectations, with the SMA not growing as fast as forecast and Powerwrap experiencing larger outflows.

The SMA platform is not currently providing sufficient momentum to offset outflows from other areas of the business, the broker notes. OneVue and the new investor-directed portfolio service offer growth opportunities, but not in the short term. OneVue needs to be integrated and the new IDPS needs to be launched.

Praemium is unlikely to post material net new business over the next 12 months, Ord Minnett warns. In that context, valuation is likely to remain discounted. Target falls to 50c from 55c, downgrade to Hold from Buy.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.03
If PPS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PYC as Speculative Buy (1) -

Safety data so far indicates PYC Therapeutics' drug VP-001 is very well tolerated in two trials being conducted on around 18 patients in the US, observes Bell Potter.

While early-stage results, the broker is confident of ongoing positive efficacy and safety updates across the two trials, which are expected to conclude in 2025.

The Speculative Buy rating and 17c target are maintained.

Target price is $0.17 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.05
If PYC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates REA as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has raised its earnings estimates for REA Group by 2% over the FY24-26 forecast horizon post REA’s latest listings report, largely due to an improved mix of new listings and their geographical distribution in the last part of the current fiscal year.

The broker views REA as the top online classified platform in its coverage universe, but maintains a Lighten recommendation and $185 target on valuation grounds.

REA’s strong finish to the year will probably also be evident in Domain Group's ((DHG)) numbers, Ord Minnett suggests.

Target price is $185.00 Current Price is $205.38 Difference: minus $20.38 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $207.51, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RIO as Buy (1) -

Rio Tinto's June-quarter production report showed a varied performance across its suite of commodities, Ord Minnett notes.

Shipments of iron ore from the Pilbara matched market expectations. Ongoing geological problems at the Kennecott copper operations in the US led Rio to downgrade 2024 copper guidance to the lower end of its forecast range.

Gas supply shortages at the Yarwun alumina refinery meant a downgrade to 2024 volume guidance, but this was expected. Bauxite output should hit the top end if guidance while TiO2 suffered from weak demand.

Buy retained, target falls to $133 from $136.

Target price is $133.00 Current Price is $116.46 Difference: $16.54
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $130.25, suggesting upside of 12.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Second quarter shipments from the Pilbara were a tad soft, observes UBS, though management at Rio Tinto maintained FY24 guidance in the expectation of a strong 2H.

Elsewhere, there were guidance downgrades for alumina due to a gas outage and copper due to unexpected geotechnical issues at Kennecott, while bauxite guidance was upgraded.

The $125 target and Neutral rating is maintained. UBS maintains a preference for BHP Group.

Target price is $125.00 Current Price is $116.46 Difference: $8.54
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $130.25, suggesting upside of 12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates RMS as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners upgrades gold price forecasts to US$3,000/oz in 2025 and 2026 and expects recent outperformance in ASX-listed gold equities to continue.

The broker cites lower bond yields ahead, elevated levels of US debt, strong central bank buying of gold and geopolitical tensions as drivers.

Buy retained for Ramelius Resources, target rises to $2.73 from $2.33.

Target price is $2.73 Current Price is $2.03 Difference: $0.7
If RMS meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.38, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SLH as Add (1) -

Morgans has reviewed Silk Logistics' revenue drivers, seeing gradual improvements in port logistics volumes and occupancy rates remaining supportive of FY24 guidance.

The broker has nevertheless moved to a more conservative view of ongoing investment across the group and expected margin recovery in the company’s distribution offering, leading to earnings downgrades of -11-15% to FY24-25 forecasts and a reduction in target price to $2.10 from $2.65.

While Silk Logistics is not immune to slower economic conditions, which may weigh on near-term earnings, Morgans notes Silk is well progressed towards the integration of key acquisitions in FY24-25 which should underpin longer-term growth as market conditions improve. Add retained.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.34 Difference: $0.76
If SLH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates STO as Neutral (3) -

In an initial response to Santos' result pre-release, Citi notes headline figures on production, sales and revenue offered no meaningful surprises. Free cash flow was a decent beat and infers a first half dividend of 13cps, ahead of Citi and consensus on 11cps.

Angore drilling is now delivered after lengthy delays, mitigating future volumes risks for PNG LNG as Hides declines. Barossa looks like it will comfortably meet March Q FY25 first gas, and may possibly move forward to late Dec Q, in Citi's view.

Updates on Pikka and Dorado are important to give more confidence on monetising growth assets, either through higher production or farming down working interest, the broker suggests. This then facilitates both de-gearing and dividend growth.

Target rises to $8.00 from $7.75, Neutral retained.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $8.01 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.02, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates STP as Add (1) -

Morgans cannot help but be impressed by Step One Clothing's comeback from early struggles, guiding to FY24 earnings materially above forecasts. 29% year on year revenue growth puts other discretionary retailers to shame, the broker suggests.

Step One is building strong customer loyalty at the same time as winning many new customers, Morgans notes, most notably women.
The broker believes there is still plenty of blue sky for Step One to continue to impress in the years ahead.

Morgans believes the quality of the product and brand is coming to the fore, which will allow for positive and profitable growth to be sustained. Add retained, target rises to $2.25 from $2.15.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $1.80 Difference: $0.45
If STP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLX as Buy (1) -

In a first impression by UBS of today's 2Q trading update by Telix Pharmaceuticals, the broker notes an around 11% beat against the consensus estimate for sales of the prostate cancer diagnostic.

Additionally, management's FY24 guidance was raised by 10% at the mid-point to between $745-776m when consensus was expecting $715m, according to the broker (which was predicting $781m).

New guidance implies to UBS sequential growth for Illuccix throughout the year, which is seen as possible given the rapid expansion in the market for PSMA PET scans.

Buy. Target $26.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $20.00 Difference: $6
If TLX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VSL as Neutral (3) -

Despite expected weak 2H demand, industry feedback suggests to UBS the decline in US spreads is nearing an end, with low service centre inventories likely to drive a restock.

Regarding Vulcan Steel, the broker notes a slower recovery due to ongoing weakness in New Zealand but still forecasts FY25 will be the nadir for volumes. 

The analyst's target falls by -9% to $7.20 on lower earnings assumptions. Neutral.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $6.82 Difference: $0.38
If VSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ZIP as Buy (1) -

In a move that makes sense to Citi, Zip Co announced a $217m placement to pay down a $130m corporate debt (which has a 15% interest rate) and exit fee. 

Management also announced another strong quarter in the US, while keeping bad debts low, observes the broker.

In Q4, US total transaction value (TTV) jumped by 42% year-on-year, with spend-per-active-customer topping US$300/quarter for
the first time, highlight the analysts. More negatively, net bad debts in Australia increased to 4.7% at June from 3.5% at March.

Buy. Target $1.40.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: minus $0.205 (current price is over target).
If ZIP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.62, suggesting downside of -8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ZIP as Buy (1) -

UBS raises its target for Zip Co by 23% to $1.90 following an incrementally better-than-expected trading update and the announced $267m equity raising to retire a $150m corporate debt facility charging 15% interest. Buy.

The broker's cash earnings (EBITDA) forecasts rise on the $23m of annual interest savings and an improved cash earnings margin profile as management continues to focus on operating leverage.

In the US, total transaction value (TTV) growth continues to exceed the analyst's expectations, rising by 42% year-on-year in Q4 due to a  higher average-spend-per-customer.

Australian TTV growth was an area of 4Q weakness, notes UBS, but grew sequentially by 7% quarter-on-quarter.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: $0.295
If ZIP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.62, suggesting downside of -8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources