Australian Broker Call
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February 05, 2024
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
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Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
IMD - | Imdex | Downgrade to Sell from Hold | Bell Potter |
Overnight Price: $51.85
Morgan Stanley rates ALU as Overweight (1) -
Altium's much anticipated investor day last November still left investors waiting on monestisation plans for Altium365. Morgan Stanley thinks investors are now focused on the first half results for commentary on Altium365 monestisation plans.
And progress on enterprise sales and incremental margin.
The shares have traded well recently, approaching 32x forward earnings, so the broker believes market expectations are high as consensus looks for 1H revenue growth of 22%, combined with earnings margins of 35%.
Overweight and $50 target retained. Industry view: Attractive.
Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $51.85 Difference: minus $1.85 (current price is over target).
If ALU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $48.07, suggesting downside of -6.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 95.23 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 95.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 52.7. |
Forecast for FY25:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 119.15 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 121.5, implying annual growth of 24.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 93.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.2. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.85
Shaw and Partners rates ATA as Buy (1) -
Pre-announcing first half trading results from Atturra has demonstrated stronger revenue and margins than Shaw and Partners had been expected, leaving the broker seeing less risk in the company's reiterated full year guidance.
The company expects the company to report first half revenue of $108-112m, underlying earnings of $10.5-11.5m, and earnings of $5-5.5m. The broker notes the Canberra market, where Atturra is a market leader, is returning to normal and expected to improve over the coming year.
The Buy rating and target price of $1.45 are retained.
Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: $0.6
If ATA meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.70 cents. |
Forecast for FY25:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.60 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.31
Morgan Stanley rates BLD as Underweight (5) -
FY24 trends remain favourable for Boral but Morgan Stanley sees macro risk to FY25. The broker expects pricing traction to remain a benefit through FY24, believing this will support earnings in a relatively benign demand environment.
However, the broker continues to hold a more bearish view on residential construction, expecting a difficult demand backdrop in FY25.
Target rises to $3.90 from $3.30, Underweight retained. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $5.31 Difference: minus $1.41 (current price is over target).
If BLD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.84, suggesting downside of -8.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.9, implying annual growth of 25.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.6. |
Forecast for FY25:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.3, implying annual growth of 24.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $23.36
Morgan Stanley rates BSL as Underweight (5) -
Strong US spreads have offset historically low Asian spreads so far in the second half. Morgan Stanley upgrades FY24 forecasts to reflect period-to-date strength but notes US prices appear to have hit an inflection point.
The broker expects share price weakness if declines are meaningful. Target rises to $21 from $18. Underweight retained. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $23.36 Difference: minus $2.36 (current price is over target).
If BSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $21.60, suggesting downside of -7.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 205.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 209.8, implying annual growth of -3.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1. |
Forecast for FY25:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 155.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 217.7, implying annual growth of 3.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates BWP as Sell (5) -
BWP Trust has announced an intended merger with Newmark Property REIT ((NPR)) in an all-share deal.
The proposed deal would see every Newmark Property REIT shareholder entitled to 0.4 BWP Trust shares, implying a value of $1.39 per BWP Trust share, or, as per Citi, a 43.1% premium to the company's share price as of late January.
The broker finds the merger a cheaper way for BWP Trust to gain access to assets at an implied 5.9% cap rate, but considers the offer accretive to Newmark Property REIT.
The Sell rating and target price of $3.40 are retained.
Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.40 Difference: $0
If BWP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.52, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.9, implying annual growth of 213.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8. |
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 19.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.4, implying annual growth of 2.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CAR CAR GROUP LIMITED
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Overnight Price: $33.58
Citi rates CAR as Neutral (3) -
Industry analysis undertaken by Citi suggests demand for used cars has picked up towards the end of the last year, a positive for CAR Group, with used car transactions up 34% year-on-year over 2023.
The broker expects this increased demand to be a result of increased cost of living pressure, but also improving supply dynamics. Given improving supply prices for used cars have continued to decline, dropping an average -12% since March 2023.
The Neutral rating and target price of $34.30 are retained.
Target price is $34.30 Current Price is $33.58 Difference: $0.72
If CAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.85, suggesting downside of -8.1% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.7, implying annual growth of -54.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.1. |
Forecast for FY25:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.0, implying annual growth of 15.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates CAR as Overweight (1) -
CAR Group's first half results will be "topical", Morgan Stanley suggests, given volatility in used car prices and lower consumer spending from higher interest rates. The broker has a positive fundamental view.
But after the recent moves higher in the shares, the market will likely require a strong first half and outlook to hold its multiples, the broker warns.
Overweight and $30 target. Industry view: Attractive.
Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $33.58 Difference: minus $3.58 (current price is over target).
If CAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $30.85, suggesting downside of -8.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 94.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.7, implying annual growth of -54.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.1. |
Forecast for FY25:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 105.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.0, implying annual growth of 15.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $115.81
Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -
Citi believes the recent rally in CommBank shares has surprised the market, with valuation looking "increasingly stretched on any fundamental measure" according to the broker.
The broker notes the bank has already screened expensive, but it has become increasingly difficult to understand the incremental buyer. It is Citi's view that incremental buying is likely more technical related, with the bank's position inviting passive buying and short activity low.
Citi points out the bank's size in the market and liquidity have historically proven attractive to investors rotating out of other large sectors.
The Sell rating and target price of $84.00 are retained.
Target price is $84.00 Current Price is $115.81 Difference: minus $31.81 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $91.86, suggesting downside of -20.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 450.00 cents and EPS of 574.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 578.0, implying annual growth of -4.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 457.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0. |
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 450.00 cents and EPS of 568.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 585.4, implying annual growth of 1.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 468.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.94
Macquarie rates CHN as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie incorporates 2Q results for Chalice Mining into its forecasts and adjusts the assumed equity raising for the Gonneville development to $700m at 85c/share from $700m at $1.55/share.
Management aims to identify a preferred partner for the development in early-2024.
The target falls to $2 from $3 on the dilutive effects of the broker's new capital raise assumptions. The Outperform rating is unchanged.
Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $0.94 Difference: $1.06
If CHN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 113% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.08, suggesting upside of 249.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 14.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -8.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -8.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.67
Macquarie rates CNB as Outperform (1) -
In the wake of 2Q results for Carnaby Resources, and after Macquarie adjusts its capital raise assumption to $80m at 52cps from $80m at 58cps, the broker's target falls to $1.10 from $1.15.
During the 2Q, management released its maiden interim mineral resource for its Greater Duchess project and is currently progressing the scoping study for the project.
The Outperform rating is maintained.
Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.67 Difference: $0.43
If CNB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.90 cents. |
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 30.60 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $24.76
Macquarie rates CPU as Outperform (1) -
December quarter US mortgage servicing data have been released, and Macquarie highlights Computershare's Unpaid Principal Balances (UPB) have declined by -2.8% over the quarter.
The broker highlights UPB growth has potential to impact the sale price for the previously-announced sale of the company's US Mortgage Services (MS) division.
The broker makes no changes to earnings forecasts, target of $28 or Outperform rating.
Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $24.76 Difference: $3.24
If CPU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $28.24, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 87.81 cents and EPS of 180.17 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 182.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 132.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 102.04 cents and EPS of 204.39 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 197.3, implying annual growth of 8.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 128.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.28
Macquarie rates CTM as Outperform (1) -
After allowing for Centaurus Metals' 4Q results and altering the assumed equity raising for the Jaguar development to $350m at 24cps from $350m at 38cps, Macquarie's target falls to 70c from $1.00. The Outperform rating is maintained.
Management now expects to deliver its definitive feasibility study (DFS) during the March quarter. This represents a one quarter delay to allow the project's lead engineering group to complete capital and operating cost estimates, explains the analyst.
Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.42
If CTM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 150% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.90 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.10 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $26.98
Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -
With eligibility criteria for inclusion on the FTSE EPRA Nareit Global Real Estate Index having been updated, Citi sees strong potential for Goodman Group to soon be included.
The stock was last year excluded on the basis of a higher level of management fee income, but with eligibility criteria now allowing 50% of total earnings to be derived from traditional real estate activities, down from 75%, Citi expects the stock to be included.
Citi suggests inclusion on the index could drive strong potential buying from passive investors.
The Buy rating and target price of $25.50 are retained.
Target price is $25.50 Current Price is $26.98 Difference: minus $1.48 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $23.90, suggesting downside of -11.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 111.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 105.8, implying annual growth of 27.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.6. |
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 124.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.0, implying annual growth of 5.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $8.17
Macquarie rates GNC as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie anticipates an uplift for GrainCorp's 2024 summer crop output, by comparison to 2023, following recent rainfall. A better-than-expected east coast winter harvest is also expected to boost the company's Storage & Logistics business.
After also allowing for lower crush margins, the analyst raises the FY24-26 earnings forecasts by 1%, 5% and 1%, respectively.
The Outperform rating and target price of $9.70 are retained.
The company's AGM is due on Feb 14.
Target price is $9.70 Current Price is $8.17 Difference: $1.53
If GNC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.74, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 36.40 cents and EPS of 52.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.2, implying annual growth of -53.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 30.10 cents and EPS of 43.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.8, implying annual growth of -10.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.64
Morgan Stanley rates GPT as Equal-weight (3) -
Morgan Stanley has compared GPT Group's share price to a valuation implied by its peers over the last five years and found that post-2020, GPT has traded in a tight range of -12% to +1% versus peers, with any arbitrage closing within six months of GPT trading down to -10%.
Outperformance versus peers is typical in the second half of the calendar year, the broker notes, while GPT usually underperforms or trades sideways in first half.
Equal-weight and $4.60 target retained. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.64 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If GPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.88, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 31.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.3, implying annual growth of 27.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 25.30 cents and EPS of 31.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.0, implying annual growth of 2.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.65
Bell Potter rates IMD as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -
Bell Potter expects ongoing weakness in global exploration activity, in part due to waning junior exploration activity, and downgrades its rating for Imdex to Sell from Hold.
Ongoing price declines for lithium and nickel are not helping exploration activity by major and junior customers, explain the analysts, and could lead to lower near-term instrument demand.
The target falls to $1.50 from $1.60.
Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.65 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If IMD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.97, suggesting upside of 23.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 3.10 cents and EPS of 10.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.8, implying annual growth of 35.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY25:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 3.40 cents and EPS of 11.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.1, implying annual growth of 12.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.29
Macquarie rates LM8 as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie updates forecasts for Lunnon Metals for 2Q results and a change in equity raise assumption to $40m at 24cps from $40m at 55cps.
The company had $27.2m of cash at the end of Q2, and management aims to reducing monthly spending on exploration and corporate costs, in light of weak market conditions for nickel.
The target falls by -36% to 70c from $1.10. Outperform.
Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.29 Difference: $0.41
If LM8 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 141% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.80 cents. |
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.40 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.35
Citi rates NSR as Buy (1) -
National Storage REIT, earlier today, pre-released a market update ahead of interim results, scheduled for release on February 21.
Citi, upon first glance, believes today's update is in line with the broker's projections. Equally important, the broker believes the update yet again highlights positive structural growth across the self-storage sector.
National Storage REIT concluded no less than 13 acquisitions during the period (six months).
The REIT declared 1HFY24 underlying EPS of 5.6cps, while maintaining full year guidance of at-least 11.3cps. Target $2.60. Buy.
Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.35 Difference: $0.25
If NSR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.33, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 12.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.3, implying annual growth of -56.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7. |
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 12.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.8, implying annual growth of 4.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.66
Bell Potter rates NUF as Buy (1) -
Following management commentary at Nufarm's AGM, and updated acreage forecasts out of the UK and EU, along with updated planting data for Canada, Bell Potter adjusts its earnings forecasts.
The broker also highlights recent rainfall across the summer acreage in Australia has improved prospects for crop-input demand.
The Buy rating stays as the analysts note Nufarm trades at a discount to its global ag-chem peers, despite consistently stronger revenue growth rates and greater exposure to ESG-friendly products. The target rises to $6.35 from $6.30.
Target price is $6.35 Current Price is $5.66 Difference: $0.69
If NUF meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.10, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY24:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 30.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.9, implying annual growth of 29.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Forecast for FY25:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 40.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.2, implying annual growth of 30.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates NUF as Buy (1) -
In what Citi sees as a positive takeaway for Nufarm, competitor Corteva is anticipating a normalisation of channel inventory levels and renewed product uptake from farms by 2025.
Further, Corteva is expecting sequential margin improvement, driven by both increased volumes and pricing, and cost deflation, in what Citi considers a "clear indication of progressive improvement".
Corteva is guiding to 2% year-on-year revenue growth over 2024, and 6% earnings growth.
The Buy rating and target price of $5.60 are retained.
Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.66 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If NUF meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.10, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.9, implying annual growth of 29.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 44.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.2, implying annual growth of 30.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.80
Shaw and Partners rates PLY as Buy (1) -
Playside Studios has announced a third publishing deal with Fumi Games on new title Mouse, a first-person shooter game, and with 20m trailer views early demand signals appear strong.
As per Shaw and Partners, the title will build on Playside Studios' pipeline of upcoming larger PC and console game releases, and the broker estimates mid-case two-year revenues in the low double digit range, but with potential material upside.
The game is well progressed and expected to launch in 2025.
The Buy rating and target price of 90 cents are retained.
Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.80 Difference: $0.1
If PLY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.20 cents. |
Forecast for FY25:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.80 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PNI PINNACLE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $10.84
Morgans rates PNI as Add (1) -
Pinnacle Investment Management's 1H profit was in line with Morgans' forecast. Thanks to flows and a market uplift late in H1, starting funds under management for H2 is up around 8% on the H1 average, explains the analyst.
Funds under management rose by 9% over the half to $100.1bn.
The broker believes a step-up in FY25 and FY26 earnings will spring from a number of sources including improved flows and material operating leverage on improved FUM.
The target rises to $11.40 from $9.35 and the Add rating is maintained.
Target price is $11.40 Current Price is $10.84 Difference: $0.56
If PNI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.64, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 38.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.7, implying annual growth of 0.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.0. |
Forecast for FY25:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 47.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.8, implying annual growth of 22.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates PNI as Neutral (3) -
While 1H profit for Pinnacle Investment Management missed the consensus forecast by -7%, UBS notes strong revenue momentum at the end of the half.
Funds under management (FUM) of $100bn, was 9% higher than 1H average, explains the broker, and there were stronger net inflows in retail and international. Inflows related to Emerging Markets (Aikya), Alternatives (Coolabah) and Private Credit (Metrics).
While the group rises in the UBS order of preference in the space -GQG Partners ((GQG) most preferred- the analyst feels operating leverage will be restricted by increased spending by affiliates.
The Neutral rating is unchanged and the target price increases to $10.80 from $9.95.
Target price is $10.80 Current Price is $10.84 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If PNI meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $10.64, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 38.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.7, implying annual growth of 0.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.0. |
Forecast for FY25:
UBS forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 50.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.8, implying annual growth of 22.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
REA REA GROUP LIMITED
Online media & mobile platforms
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Overnight Price: $184.62
Morgan Stanley rates REA as Overweight (1) -
REA Group's shares are trading near all-time highs and are up some 20% since the August result, Morgan Stanley notes, as investors expect a strong recovery in listings and yield growth.
Given REA's premium trading multiple of some 50x, any deviation in the actual result versus consensus forecasts could lead to outsized share price moves, the broker warns.
Overweight and $200 target retained. Industry View: Attractive.
Target price is $200.00 Current Price is $184.62 Difference: $15.38
If REA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $162.50, suggesting downside of -11.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 211.90 cents and EPS of 378.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 351.7, implying annual growth of 30.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 202.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 52.0. |
Forecast for FY25:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 264.40 cents and EPS of 472.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 407.1, implying annual growth of 15.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 232.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.03
Bell Potter rates RRL as Buy (1) -
Regis Resources has exposure to South32's ((S32)) legal action against IGO Ltd ((IGO)) due to an indemnity agreement, which became effective on the sale of IGO’s 30% share of Tropicana to Regis on May 31, 2021, explains Bell Potter.
South32 claims IGO is liable to pay royalties (estimated at -$122.1m plus costs) to South32 on revenues from gold production at the Tropicana Gold Mine in Western Australia. IGO believes the portion of the claim covered by the Regis indemnity is between -$35-$40m.
The broker makes no changes to forecast earnings for Regis, and feels the development (while negative) is "not a deal-breaker". More negatively, the action may drag on the company's share price over the duration of extended legal proceedings.
The Buy rating and $2.60 target are unchanged.
Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.03 Difference: $0.57
If RRL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.08, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.8. |
Forecast for FY25:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 38.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.3, implying annual growth of 284.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $26.03
Morgan Stanley rates SEK as Overweight (1) -
Seek's first half results will be closely scrutinised, Morgan Stanley suggests, given a backdrop of a softer employment outlook in Australia for 2024, subdued business sentiment and higher interest rates.
On the other hand, the stock has significantly underperformed online classified peers, leading the broker to ask: could it be due for a catch-up?
Overweight retained, target $29. Industry View: Attractive.
Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $26.03 Difference: $2.97
If SEK meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $25.84, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 69.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.8, implying annual growth of -79.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.5. |
Forecast for FY25:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 89.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.8, implying annual growth of 21.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.40
Morgan Stanley rates SYR as Equal-weight (3) -
Morgan Stanley has reduced forecast 2024 production at Syrah Resources' Balama, with the mine expected to continue in "campaign" mode in the March quarter. The broker assumes an increase over 2024 as Vidalia ramps up.
The broker has delayed its final investment decison expectation for the Vidalia 45ktpa expansion to the second half, and assumes 45ktpa production from 2028 or later.
Syrah still requires a funding solution to progress Vidalia. Target falls to 40c from 60c, Equal-weight retained. Industry view: Attractive.
Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: $0.005
If SYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.90, suggesting upside of 114.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 12.11 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -13.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.57 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -10.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
WTC WISETECH GLOBAL LIMITED
Transportation & Logistics
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Overnight Price: $74.43
Morgan Stanley rates WTC as Overweight (1) -
The set-up to WiseTech Global's first half result is interesting, Morgan Stanley suggests, as this will be the first set of accounts with a full period of Blume and Envase.
The key debate is: can WiseTech deliver strong revenue growth and return to 50%-plus earnings margins by FY25?
The broker expects high share price volatility. Overweight and $85 target retained. Industry view: Attractive.
Target price is $85.00 Current Price is $74.43 Difference: $10.57
If WTC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $76.39, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 19.60 cents and EPS of 87.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.2, implying annual growth of 23.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 94.9. |
Forecast for FY25:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 28.10 cents and EPS of 124.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 108.3, implying annual growth of 35.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 70.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
BLD | Boral | $5.29 | Macquarie | 6.00 | 5.60 | 7.14% |
Morgan Stanley | 3.90 | 3.50 | 11.43% | |||
BSL | BlueScope Steel | $23.22 | Morgan Stanley | 21.00 | 18.00 | 16.67% |
CAR | CAR Group | $33.56 | Morgan Stanley | 30.00 | 26.50 | 13.21% |
CHN | Chalice Mining | $0.88 | Macquarie | 2.00 | 3.00 | -33.33% |
CIP | Centuria Industrial REIT | $3.26 | Macquarie | 3.58 | 3.41 | 4.99% |
CLW | Charter Hall Long WALE REIT | $3.70 | Macquarie | 3.54 | 3.56 | -0.56% |
CNB | Carnaby Resources | $0.66 | Macquarie | 1.10 | 1.15 | -4.35% |
CTM | Centaurus Metals | $0.28 | Macquarie | 0.70 | 1.00 | -30.00% |
DXI | Dexus Industria REIT | $2.75 | Macquarie | 2.87 | 3.04 | -5.59% |
IAG | Insurance Australia Group | $6.09 | Macquarie | 6.10 | 6.30 | -3.17% |
IMD | Imdex | $1.60 | Bell Potter | 1.50 | 1.60 | -6.25% |
LM8 | Lunnon Metals | $0.28 | Macquarie | 0.70 | 1.10 | -36.36% |
NUF | Nufarm | $5.64 | Bell Potter | 6.35 | 6.30 | 0.79% |
PNI | Pinnacle Investment Management | $10.71 | Morgans | 11.40 | 9.35 | 21.93% |
UBS | 10.80 | 8.50 | 27.06% | |||
RGN | Region Group | $2.25 | Macquarie | 2.23 | 2.28 | -2.19% |
SEK | Seek | $26.01 | Morgan Stanley | 29.00 | 29.50 | -1.69% |
SUN | Suncorp Group | $14.11 | Macquarie | 17.00 | 17.20 | -1.16% |
SYR | Syrah Resources | $0.42 | Morgan Stanley | 0.40 | 0.60 | -33.33% |
Summaries
ALU | Altium | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $51.85 |
ATA | Atturra | Buy - Shaw and Partners | Overnight Price $0.85 |
BLD | Boral | Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $5.31 |
BSL | BlueScope Steel | Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $23.36 |
BWP | BWP Trust | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $3.40 |
CAR | CAR Group | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $33.58 |
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $33.58 | ||
CBA | CommBank | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $115.81 |
CHN | Chalice Mining | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.94 |
CNB | Carnaby Resources | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.67 |
CPU | Computershare | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $24.76 |
CTM | Centaurus Metals | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.28 |
GMG | Goodman Group | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $26.98 |
GNC | GrainCorp | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $8.17 |
GPT | GPT Group | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $4.64 |
IMD | Imdex | Downgrade to Sell from Hold - Bell Potter | Overnight Price $1.65 |
LM8 | Lunnon Metals | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.29 |
NSR | National Storage REIT | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $2.35 |
NUF | Nufarm | Buy - Bell Potter | Overnight Price $5.66 |
Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $5.66 | ||
PLY | Playside Studios | Buy - Shaw and Partners | Overnight Price $0.80 |
PNI | Pinnacle Investment Management | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $10.84 |
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $10.84 | ||
REA | REA Group | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $184.62 |
RRL | Regis Resources | Buy - Bell Potter | Overnight Price $2.03 |
SEK | Seek | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $26.03 |
SYR | Syrah Resources | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $0.40 |
WTC | WiseTech Global | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $74.43 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 19 |
3. Hold | 4 |
5. Sell | 5 |
Monday 05 February 2024
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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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