Australian Broker Call
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May 22, 2019
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
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Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
ALQ - | ALS LIMITED | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | Citi |
Downgrade to Sell from Hold | Deutsche Bank | ||
AMP - | AMP | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | Citi |
CPU - | COMPUTERSHARE | Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform | Macquarie |
Upgrade to Hold from Lighten | Ord Minnett | ||
IFL - | IOOF HOLDINGS | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | UBS |
SGP - | STOCKLAND | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
TNE - | TECHNOLOGYONE | Downgrade to Lighten from Hold | Ord Minnett |
ACF ACROW FORMWORK AND CONSTRUCTION SERVICES LIMITED
Building Products & Services
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Overnight Price: $0.29
Morgans rates ACF as Add (1) -
The trading update was weaker than Morgans expected, with management guiding to second half operating earnings (EBITDA) to be slightly below the first half.
Nevertheless, the outlook for formwork linked to civil infrastructure and commercial construction remains strong, amid solid momentum being observed in Queensland and Victoria.
Morgans reduces estimates for FY19 by -20%, maintains an Add rating and lowers the target to $0.40 from $0.60.
Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.29 Difference: $0.11
If ACF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 1.70 cents and EPS of 4.60 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 1.90 cents and EPS of 5.70 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.20
Citi rates ALQ as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -
Citi found the FY19 results solid as margins in life sciences were better than expected and there was double-digit growth in commodities.
However, the broker downgrades to Neutral from Buy, maintaining concerns around the weak trends in geochemistry which is still the company's largest business and 44% of group earnings (EBIT).
The broker does not expect the second half margin improvement in life sciences to be repeated. Target is reduced to $8.25 from $8.60.
Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $7.20 Difference: $1.05
If ALQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.91, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 24.50 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.7, implying annual growth of 32.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 25.50 cents and EPS of 46.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.5, implying annual growth of 9.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates ALQ as Neutral (3) -
FY19 net profit was in line with Credit Suisse estimates. Revenue growth occurred across all segments and margins improved in life sciences for the first time in six years.
Nevertheless, as volumes in the geochemical business slowed in the second half management is cautious on the outlook. Management also expects volumes to be flat in the first half of FY20 and remains hopeful for growth in the second half.
Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $7.40 from $8.00.
Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $7.20 Difference: $0.2
If ALQ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.91, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 25.49 cents and EPS of 42.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.7, implying annual growth of 32.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 27.46 cents and EPS of 45.46 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.5, implying annual growth of 9.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates ALQ as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -
Deutsche Bank observes that, over the last few years, the company has benefited from a recovery in global minerals drilling expenditure. However, the rate of growth has slowed.
Geochemistry volume growth was flat in the second half. The broker downgrades to Sell from Hold and reduces the target to $6.57.
Target price is $6.57 Current Price is $7.20 Difference: minus $0.63 (current price is over target).
If ALQ meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.91, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.7, implying annual growth of 32.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.5, implying annual growth of 9.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates ALQ as Outperform (1) -
Underlying net profit was ahead of Macquarie's expectations. The broker forecasts 10% growth in earnings per share for the next two years, considered attractive in a broader growth-challenged market.
The mix is also changing, with life sciences becoming more influential. Macquarie considers the recovery in life sciences is timely, given the rate of earnings growth in commodities will slow from very strong levels. Outperform rating and $8.62 target.
Target price is $8.62 Current Price is $7.20 Difference: $1.42
If ALQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.91, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 24.60 cents and EPS of 40.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.7, implying annual growth of 32.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 26.20 cents and EPS of 44.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.5, implying annual growth of 9.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates ALQ as Hold (3) -
Underlying net profit of $181m in FY19 beat guidance but was in line with Morgan's forecasts. Geochemical volumes have moderated which has affected confidence, the broker notes.
While second half life sciences margins were stable the outlook in the US is still flat. The broker considers the stock less demanding, although estimates for earnings growth have moderated to 8% in FY20.
The broker maintains a Hold rating and reduces the target to $7.86 from $8.24.
Target price is $7.86 Current Price is $7.20 Difference: $0.66
If ALQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.91, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.7, implying annual growth of 32.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.5, implying annual growth of 9.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates ALQ as Neutral (3) -
FY19 net profit was ahead of UBS estimates because of better margins in life sciences. Commodities revenue was also ahead of expectations.
The company expects low double-digit revenue growth in commodities in FY20, consistent with UBS estimates of 10%. UBS maintains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $8.25 from $8.50.
Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $7.20 Difference: $1.05
If ALQ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.91, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.7, implying annual growth of 32.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 48.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.5, implying annual growth of 9.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $16.45
Deutsche Bank rates AMC as Buy (1) -
Deutsche Bank considers the proposed acquisition of Bemis positive and believes it will generate long-term value. The combined entity will become the global leader in consumer packaging.
Transaction and implementation costs of US$340m will be funded by capital expenditure in working capital synergies. Deutsche Bank retains a Buy rating and increases the target by 18% to $19.
Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $16.45 Difference: $2.55
If AMC meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.00, suggesting downside of -2.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.2, implying annual growth of 14.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates AMP as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -
Citi envisages material risk there will be minimal capital returns from AMP and the road to releasing value will be difficult. The broker believes the adviser industry is likely to transform to one dominated by salaried advisers and away from the aligned model that makes up 90% of the company's adviser base.
A new business model could require significant investment and take time to be profitable. Citi downgrades to Sell/High Risk from Neutral. Target is $1.90.
Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.17, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 22.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.4, implying annual growth of 1740.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 18.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of -8.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates AMP as Neutral (3) -
UBS suggests the company's view on wealth management is more bearish than most investors were expecting, particularly for the likely level of churn in legacy business as well as fee compression.
Australian wealth management pre-tax profits are forecast to decline by -25%, reaffirming the broker's concerns regarding the rapidly deteriorating fundamentals in what was once the company's flagship operation.
Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $2.15 from $2.30.
Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.17, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.4, implying annual growth of 1740.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of -8.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates ARF as Neutral (3) -
The company has acquired 11 properties for $62m at a 6.5% cap rate. The acquisitions are partly funded by a $50m institutional placement. Macquarie assesses a limited FY19 earnings impact, given the timing. The broker estimates the transaction to be 0.7% accretive in FY20.
Neutral rating maintained. Target rises to $2.74 from $2.69.
Target price is $2.74 Current Price is $2.68 Difference: $0.06
If ARF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.55, suggesting downside of -5.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 13.50 cents and EPS of 13.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.8, implying annual growth of -37.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 14.30 cents and EPS of 14.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.6, implying annual growth of 5.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $16.61
Citi rates CPU as Neutral (3) -
Citi believes the company has its work cut out in UK mortgage servicing and, while more optimistic about the growth in registry, this appears to be a long-dated strategy that will take time to have an impact.
The broker reduces estimates slightly, bringing margin income forecasts into line with its economists' current forecasts and factoring in the impact of revised UKAR disclosures.
Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $17.00 from $20.80.
Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $16.61 Difference: $0.39
If CPU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.10, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 42.82 cents and EPS of 99.21 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 44.06 cents and EPS of 99.76 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 106.1, implying annual growth of 4.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates CPU as Neutral (3) -
The company, in its investor briefing, has outlined a move to a global structure and away from a regional approach. Credit Suisse observes FY20 is likely to be a tough year for growth.
Nevertheless, the balance sheet is strong and some capital may be deployed to accelerate growth. FY19 guidance was reiterated for 12.5% growth in earnings per share.
Credit Suisse maintains a Neutral rating and lowers the target to $18.10 from $19.00.
Target price is $18.10 Current Price is $16.61 Difference: $1.49
If CPU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.10, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 62.14 cents and EPS of 97.92 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 63.74 cents and EPS of 99.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 106.1, implying annual growth of 4.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates CPU as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -
Macquarie notes most of the information in the investor briefing dealt with near-term implications of UK mortgage services. The broker anticipates consensus expectations, which were too optimistic on both margin income and UK mortgage services, will converge with its earnings forecasts.
Following delays in completing the migration of clients from the legacy UKAR platform the company has confirmed this will result in an additional $35m in costs in FY20. Following the response in the share price, Macquarie upgrades to Neutral from Underperform. Target is raised to $17.00 from $16.50.
Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $16.61 Difference: $0.39
If CPU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.10, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 44.19 cents and EPS of 94.28 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 46.83 cents and EPS of 98.52 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 106.1, implying annual growth of 4.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates CPU as Hold (3) -
The company has reaffirmed FY19 guidance but downgraded FY20 expectations because of a delay in UKAR client migrations. Morgans notes the investor briefing highlighted the opportunity in growing adjacent businesses although this is a medium-term story.
The mortgage servicing business in the US has reached its target of US$100bn UPB. Management has reaffirmed Equatex synergies and notes the technology has exceeded its expectations.
Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $17.92 from $19.21.
Target price is $17.92 Current Price is $16.61 Difference: $1.31
If CPU meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.10, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 61.11 cents and EPS of 98.52 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 64.85 cents and EPS of 101.98 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 106.1, implying annual growth of 4.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates CPU as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -
The company has maintained FY19 guidance at its investor briefing, although highlighted some risks from UK mortgage services. An improvement in the US mortgage servicing business is expected.
Ord Minnett considers guidance achievable and upgrades to Hold from Lighten. Target is steady at $16.50.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $16.61 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $17.10, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 44.34 cents and EPS of 96.99 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 47.11 cents and EPS of 98.38 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 106.1, implying annual growth of 4.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates CPU as Neutral (3) -
The company has reaffirmed FY19 constant currency guidance for growth of 12.5%. UBS notes that near-term headwinds surrounding UK mortgage services have overshadowed a stronger story in the US.
With better strategic growth prospects emerging elsewhere, the broker retains a Neutral rating. Target is lowered to $17.65 from $18.15.
Target price is $17.65 Current Price is $16.61 Difference: $1.04
If CPU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.10, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 63.74 cents and EPS of 98.38 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 69.28 cents and EPS of 101.15 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 106.1, implying annual growth of 4.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CTD CORPORATE TRAVEL MANAGEMENT LIMITED
Travel, Leisure & Tourism
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Overnight Price: $24.78
Credit Suisse rates CTD as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (1) -
The company has performed strongly since listing in 2010. The key factor has been its technology although that is not the only reason for success, Credit Suisse points out.
Acquisitions have featured prominently since listing, with both financial accretion and synergies. The broker expects double-digit earnings growth through to FY21 and mid-high single-digit growth thereafter.
Credit Suisse initiates coverage with an Outperform rating and $30 target.
Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $24.78 Difference: $5.22
If CTD meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.85, suggesting upside of 24.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 43.17 cents and EPS of 93.92 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 95.2, implying annual growth of 31.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 53.16 cents and EPS of 112.48 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.3, implying annual growth of 18.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
IFL IOOF HOLDINGS LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $5.37
UBS rates IFL as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -
UBS believes the structural shake-up has only just begun and, while IOOF continues to enjoy greater stability versus the rest of the sector, momentum is likely to come under increasing pressure if its elevated contemporary platform pricing is not addressed.
UBS acknowledges there is less reliance on higher-margin legacy products but believes platform earnings could compress by -25% over five years. Rating is downgraded to Sell from Neutral and the target lowered to $5.05 from $5.80.
Target price is $5.05 Current Price is $5.37 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If IFL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.63, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 57.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.2, implying annual growth of 109.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.4, implying annual growth of 2.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
JHX JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES N.V.
Building Products & Services
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Overnight Price: $18.90
Citi rates JHX as Buy (1) -
The company has reaffirmed FY20 targets and, given strong early traction in demand in exteriors, Citi is increasingly confident in the three-year outlook.
As US housing markets are stabilising and pulp prices are falling the broker believes the risks for earnings are to the upside.
Buy rating and $21 target maintained.
Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $18.90 Difference: $2.1
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $21.57, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 69.28 cents and EPS of 115.28 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 113.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 78.98 cents and EPS of 130.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 128.3, implying annual growth of 13.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates JHX as Outperform (1) -
FY19 net profit was in line with guidance. Credit Suisse remains confident but acknowledges it has taken longer than anticipated to return to the target for primary demand growth in the US, of 3-5% in the interim and 6% in the longer term.
The broker had been cautious on Fermacell, given the difficulty translating a strong position in Germany into sales growth in a diverse European market.
However, a consistent performance in FY19 has led to increases in growth forecasts, albeit still at the bottom of the 8-12% FY19-22 target. Outperform retained. Target rises to $23.00 from $21.50.
Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $18.90 Difference: $4.1
If JHX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $21.57, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 56.81 cents and EPS of 107.47 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 113.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 69.28 cents and EPS of 116.41 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 128.3, implying annual growth of 13.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates JHX as Buy (1) -
FY19 results were in line with Deutsche Bank's expectations. The broker was pleased management reiterated its FY20 primary demand growth guidance of 3-5%, albeit weighted to the second half.
North American earnings (EBIT) margins are expected to be in the top half of the 20-25% target range. The broker maintains a Buy rating and $20.50 target.
Target price is $20.50 Current Price is $18.90 Difference: $1.6
If JHX meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $21.57, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 113.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 128.3, implying annual growth of 13.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates JHX as Outperform (1) -
FY19 results were marginally below Macquarie's expectations. The outlook is for solid markets and lower costs. Management has pointed to modest market growth in the US, a slowing in Australia and slight growth in Europe.
Primary demand growth of 3-5% is expected in North America and Asia-Pacific. Margins are expected to improve to the upper end of the 20-25% range in the US. The broker retains an Outperform rating and lowers the target to $23.80 from $24.20.
Target price is $23.80 Current Price is $18.90 Difference: $4.9
If JHX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $21.57, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 54.04 cents and EPS of 107.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 113.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 76.21 cents and EPS of 126.92 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 128.3, implying annual growth of 13.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates JHX as Overweight (1) -
Results in FY19 were in line with Morgan Stanley's expectations. The broker expects relief on costs will drive improved margins and this should represent the next leg of upside for the stock.
Further improvement in US housing markets is expected amid a return to meaningful demand growth. Overweight rating reiterated. Target is raised to $21 from $20. Industry view is Cautious.
Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $18.90 Difference: $2.1
If JHX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $21.57, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 55.43 cents and EPS of 108.08 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 113.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 62.35 cents and EPS of 124.71 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 128.3, implying annual growth of 13.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates JHX as Accumulate (2) -
FY19 net profit was broadly in line with Ord Minnett's estimates and within the company's guidance range. The main disappointment was a -10% decline in interior volumes in the US in the fourth quarter.
The broker believes the stock is yet to recover from the sharp de-rating in the second half of 2018, despite market conditions and internal metrics moving in the right direction. Accumulate maintained. Target is raised to $22 from $21.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $18.90 Difference: $3.1
If JHX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $21.57, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 66.51 cents and EPS of 110.85 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 113.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 123.32 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 128.3, implying annual growth of 13.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates JHX as Neutral (3) -
UBS notes a marked turnaround since FY18 in primary demand growth. The broker suspects the company's aspirations in this regard are suffering from maturity challenges but also believes management has the right strategy to restore higher levels of growth in the longer term.
The broker expects underlying earnings (EBIT) growth of 4% in FY20. While the company is on track with its US$100m cost reduction program UBS expects the benefits to be reinvested.
Australia, which accounts for 70% of volumes, is expected to go backward. Neutral rating maintained. Target rises to $19.70 from $19.60.
Target price is $19.70 Current Price is $18.90 Difference: $0.8
If JHX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $21.57, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 65.12 cents and EPS of 98.38 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 113.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 72.05 cents and EPS of 112.24 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 128.3, implying annual growth of 13.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
LYC LYNAS CORPORATION LIMITED
Rare Earth Minerals
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Overnight Price: $2.42
UBS rates LYC as No Rating (-1) -
The company has outlined a restructure of the business in order to comply with the waste concerns of the Malaysian government and targeting a 50% expansion of production by 2025.
Specifically, the cracking and leaching process will move to Australia. This will mean that contentious waste will be generated and stored in Australia.
The broker is advising and is thus currently restricted from making a recommendation.
Current Price is $2.42. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. |
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.09
UBS rates MGR as Sell (5) -
UBS considers the removal of the serviceability floor by APRA a material surprise which reduces downside risk to housing activity. Along with official rate cuts and the "miracle" election win by the Coalition, the broker suspects a bottoming in the market in the second half of FY19 is being factored in.
While this is not a certainty, UBS lifts the target to $2.60 from $2.52 to reflect the lower probability of more downside. Sell rating maintained.
Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $3.09 Difference: minus $0.49 (current price is over target).
If MGR meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting downside of -13.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.60 cents and EPS of 16.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.5, implying annual growth of -43.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.20 cents and EPS of 17.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.8, implying annual growth of 7.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.60
Deutsche Bank rates OFX as Hold (3) -
The company reported solid top-line growth in FY19, driven by investment in North America, Asia and its corporate business. Deutsche Bank notes management has cut costs in the second half to deliver broadly flat operating earnings (EBITDA) margins.
Increasing competition is noted on the retail side of the business. Despite the weakness, the company's strategy is to focus on its higher LTV corporate customers. Hold rating and $1.75 target maintained.
Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.60 Difference: $0.15
If OFX meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates OFX as Neutral (3) -
Macquarie notes FY19 results were supported by lower-than-expected costs, depreciation and tax rates. Key operating metrics remain largely positive.
The broker retains a Neutral rating as the company is yet to demonstrate a performance that would drive a re-rating. Target is raised to $1.76 from $1.70.
Target price is $1.76 Current Price is $1.60 Difference: $0.16
If OFX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 5.90 cents and EPS of 7.80 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 6.30 cents and EPS of 8.50 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PME PRO MEDICUS LIMITED
Medical Equipment & Devices
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Overnight Price: $20.93
Morgans rates PME as Initiation of coverage with Add (1) -
Pro Medicus is a medical imaging software company, generating sales from its Visage product across North America and Europe as well as Asia-Pacific. The business generates revenue on a 'pay-per-click' basis, with guaranteed transaction minimums over contracts of five years or more.
Morgans forecast significant revenue growth, margin and dividend expansion over coming years. The broker initiates coverage with an Add rating and $23.69 target.
Target price is $23.69 Current Price is $20.93 Difference: $2.76
If PME meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.43
Macquarie rates SGP as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -
Despite the recent rally in the stock, Macquarie notes it is trading at a -30% discount to the A-REIT sector. While not expecting the spreads to close completely, the broker believes the stock is supported, given residential headwinds have largely passed.
Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral, as recent macro changes have led to a reduction in downside risks. Target is increased by 25% to $4.48.
Target price is $4.48 Current Price is $4.43 Difference: $0.05
If SGP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.94, suggesting downside of -11.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.50 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.1, implying annual growth of -17.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 28.60 cents and EPS of 32.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.7, implying annual growth of 1.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates SGP as Sell (5) -
UBS considers the removal of the serviceability floor by APRA a material surprise which reduces downside risk to housing activity. Along with official rate cuts and the "miracle" election win by the Coalition, the broker suspects a bottoming of the market in the second half of FY19 is being factored in.
While this is not a certainty, UBS lifts the target to $3.85 from $3.60 to reflect the lower probability of more downside. Sell rating maintained.
Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $4.43 Difference: minus $0.58 (current price is over target).
If SGP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.94, suggesting downside of -11.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.80 cents and EPS of 36.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.1, implying annual growth of -17.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 29.30 cents and EPS of 37.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.7, implying annual growth of 1.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.53
Credit Suisse rates SWM as Neutral (3) -
The company's trading update reflects a soft advertising market, which Credit Suisse notes has been a feature of commentary from peers over the past month.
The broker assesses Seven West Media is tracking higher on revenue share and delivering on cost reductions, but this is insufficient to offset weaker trends and the federal election spending failed to provide a meaningful boost to the TV market.
Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $0.50 from $0.55. The company has updated guidance for underlying earnings (EBIT) of $210-220m and continues to focus on debt reduction. The dividend is likely to remain suspended in FY19.
Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If SWM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.52, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.42 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.7, implying annual growth of -2.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 8.45 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.4, implying annual growth of -3.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates SWM as Neutral (3) -
The company has downgraded earnings expectations to $210-220m for FY19, primarily because of weaker advertising market conditions. The revision equates to an -11% downgrade to estimates.
Macquarie believes the company continues to face structural headwinds across media assets which have only been partially offset by cost reductions. Neutral rating maintained.
To become more positive Macquarie would need to witness an improvement in TV advertising market trends in FY20. Target is $0.53.
Target price is $0.53 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0
If SWM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.52, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 2.60 cents and EPS of 8.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.7, implying annual growth of -2.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 2.70 cents and EPS of 9.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.4, implying annual growth of -3.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates SWM as Buy (1) -
The company has downgraded estimates for earnings by around -15% at the mid point because a weak TV advertising market, although UBS suggests the update only confirmed what investors have already priced in from industry data.
The broker now assumes metro TV advertising declines -5% in FY19 and assumes a 38.7% market share. The broker maintains a Buy rating and reduces the target to $0.55 from $0.60.
Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.02
If SWM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.52, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.7, implying annual growth of -2.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.4, implying annual growth of -3.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.62
Macquarie rates TNE as Neutral (3) -
First half revenue growth was slightly below Macquarie's expectations but, given the typical second half skew and the growth levers available, it is expected to hit 10-15% over FY19.
The broker notes software as a service (SaaS) is growing strongly, with fees up 42%. While the transition is a drag to top-line growth SaaS continues to generate significant long-term value, in the broker's view.
Valuation is considered stretched and Macquarie maintains a Neutral rating. Target is up 36% to $7.80.
Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $7.62 Difference: $0.18
If TNE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.86, suggesting downside of -10.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.20 cents and EPS of 16.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of 8.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.50 cents and EPS of 18.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.5, implying annual growth of 11.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates TNE as Hold (3) -
First half results were messy because of the change to new accounting standards, Morgans observes. The key is that the board declared a 3.2c per share interim dividend, up 10%.
Growth in software-as-a-service was impressive and offset weakness elsewhere. Morgans adjust forecasts to allow for the changes but the net result is limited. Estimates for earnings per share are reduced by -5%.
The broker highlights the company is subject to more volatility in the share price, as it becomes increasingly compared to higher-growth global peers. Hold rating maintained. Target rises to $7.33 from $5.01.
Target price is $7.33 Current Price is $7.62 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If TNE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.86, suggesting downside of -10.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of 8.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.5, implying annual growth of 11.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates TNE as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -
First half results were in line with expectations and Ord Minnett notes momentum is clearly building across both software-as-a-service and in the UK. SaaS metrics were particularly strong and signal the company continues to enjoy larger customers migrating to its cloud offering.
The main drawback for the broker is cash flow, which likely reflects lower upfront cash payments from customers migrating to SaaS. Valuation is now considered stretched and the rating is downgraded to Lighten from Hold. Target is raised to $6.70 from $6.10.
Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $7.62 Difference: minus $0.92 (current price is over target).
If TNE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.86, suggesting downside of -10.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.80 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of 8.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.60 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.5, implying annual growth of 11.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates TNE as Neutral (3) -
The company has guided to FY19 pre-tax profit of $71.6-76.3m. While this represents 41-51% growth on a comparable basis UBS notes it represents 8-15% growth pre accounting changes.
The company expects profit margins to improve to 25% in the next few years. Guidance is slightly below UBS estimates. Neutral rating and $5.60 target maintained.
Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $7.62 Difference: minus $2.02 (current price is over target).
If TNE meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.86, suggesting downside of -10.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of 8.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.5, implying annual growth of 11.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $15.30
Credit Suisse rates WEB as Outperform (1) -
While Thomas Cook has experienced material earnings reductions and the share price is under pressure, Credit Suisse considers the exposure of Webjet is safe.
The broker currently forecasts $12m in earnings contribution in FY20 from sales to Thomas Cook customers, and believes downside risk to these earnings is limited as the issues for Thomas Cook are largely related to margin.
Outperform rating and $17 target maintained.
Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $15.30 Difference: $1.7
If WEB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.47, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 23.76 cents and EPS of 66.16 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.5, implying annual growth of 62.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 41.30 cents and EPS of 98.24 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.0, implying annual growth of 48.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
ACF | ACROW FORMWORK AND CONSTRUCTION | Morgans | 0.40 | 0.60 | -33.33% |
ALQ | ALS LIMITED | Citi | 8.25 | 8.60 | -4.07% |
Credit Suisse | 7.40 | 8.00 | -7.50% | ||
Deutsche Bank | 6.57 | 7.35 | -10.61% | ||
Macquarie | 8.62 | 8.76 | -1.60% | ||
Morgans | 7.86 | 8.24 | -4.61% | ||
UBS | 8.25 | 8.50 | -2.94% | ||
AMC | AMCOR | Deutsche Bank | 19.00 | 16.15 | 17.65% |
AMP | AMP | Citi | 1.90 | 2.30 | -17.39% |
UBS | 2.15 | 2.30 | -6.52% | ||
ARF | ARENA REIT | Macquarie | 2.74 | 2.69 | 1.86% |
CPU | COMPUTERSHARE | Citi | 17.00 | 20.80 | -18.27% |
Credit Suisse | 18.10 | 19.00 | -4.74% | ||
Macquarie | 17.00 | 16.50 | 3.03% | ||
Morgans | 17.92 | 19.76 | -9.31% | ||
UBS | 17.65 | 18.15 | -2.75% | ||
IFL | IOOF HOLDINGS | UBS | 5.05 | 5.80 | -12.93% |
JHX | JAMES HARDIE | Credit Suisse | 23.00 | 21.50 | 6.98% |
Deutsche Bank | 20.50 | 19.30 | 6.22% | ||
Macquarie | 23.80 | 24.20 | -1.65% | ||
Morgan Stanley | 21.00 | 20.00 | 5.00% | ||
Ord Minnett | 22.00 | 21.00 | 4.76% | ||
UBS | 19.70 | 19.60 | 0.51% | ||
MGR | MIRVAC | UBS | 2.60 | 2.52 | 3.17% |
OFX | OFX GROUP | Macquarie | 1.76 | 1.70 | 3.53% |
SGP | STOCKLAND | Macquarie | 4.48 | 3.59 | 24.79% |
UBS | 3.85 | 3.60 | 6.94% | ||
SWM | SEVEN WEST MEDIA | Credit Suisse | 0.50 | 0.55 | -9.09% |
Macquarie | 0.53 | 0.60 | -11.67% | ||
UBS | 0.55 | 0.60 | -8.33% | ||
TNE | TECHNOLOGYONE | Macquarie | 7.80 | 5.74 | 35.89% |
Morgans | 7.33 | 5.01 | 46.31% | ||
Ord Minnett | 6.70 | 6.10 | 9.84% |
Summaries
ACF | ACROW FORMWORK AND CONSTRUCTION | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.29 |
ALQ | ALS LIMITED | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $7.20 |
Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $7.20 | ||
Downgrade to Sell from Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $7.20 | ||
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $7.20 | ||
Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $7.20 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $7.20 | ||
AMC | AMCOR | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $16.45 |
AMP | AMP | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $2.21 |
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $2.21 | ||
ARF | ARENA REIT | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.68 |
CPU | COMPUTERSHARE | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $16.61 |
Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $16.61 | ||
Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $16.61 | ||
Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $16.61 | ||
Upgrade to Hold from Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $16.61 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $16.61 | ||
CTD | CORPORATE TRAVEL | Initiation of coverage with Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $24.78 |
IFL | IOOF HOLDINGS | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $5.37 |
JHX | JAMES HARDIE | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $18.90 |
Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $18.90 | ||
Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $18.90 | ||
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $18.90 | ||
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $18.90 | ||
Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $18.90 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $18.90 | ||
LYC | LYNAS CORP | No Rating - UBS | Overnight Price $2.42 |
MGR | MIRVAC | Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $3.09 |
OFX | OFX GROUP | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $1.60 |
Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.60 | ||
PME | PRO MEDICUS | Initiation of coverage with Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $20.93 |
SGP | STOCKLAND | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.43 |
Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $4.43 | ||
SWM | SEVEN WEST MEDIA | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $0.53 |
Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.53 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $0.53 | ||
TNE | TECHNOLOGYONE | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $7.62 |
Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $7.62 | ||
Downgrade to Lighten from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $7.62 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $7.62 | ||
WEB | WEBJET | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $15.30 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 13 |
2. Accumulate | 1 |
3. Hold | 20 |
4. Reduce | 1 |
5. Sell | 5 |
Wednesday 22 May 2019
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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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