Australian Broker Call

September 05, 2016

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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Last Updated: 11:20 AM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
AMC - AMCOR Upgrade to Buy from Neutral Citi
Upgrade to Buy from Hold Deutsche Bank
HUO - HUON AQUACULTURE Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Credit Suisse
ICQ - ICAR ASIA Upgrade to Add from Hold Morgans
OSH - OIL SEARCH Upgrade to Neutral from Sell Citi
PRY - PRIMARY HEALTH CARE Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight Morgan Stanley
SHL - SONIC HEALTHCARE Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight Morgan Stanley
SUL - SUPER RETAIL Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral Credit Suisse
WOW - WOOLWORTHS Downgrade to Hold from Add Morgans
AAD  ARDENT LEISURE GROUP

Consumer Services

Overnight Price: $2.55

UPDATED

Citi rates AAD as Buy (1) -

Citi analysts have added more colour to the Gold Coast battle for the Theme Parcs visitors and to date Ardent Leisure is winning, despite significant investments made by competitor Village Roadshow.

Citi does take the view that, given Village is outspending Ardent Leisure with the latter's focus predominantly on rolling out more Main Event centres in the USA, Village Roadshow is likely to take back the momentum on the Gold Coast in FY17.

An overall positive view on Gold Coast tourism supports a positive investment view for both.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.55 Difference: $0.5
If AAD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.98, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.50 cents and EPS of 14.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.50 cents and EPS of 16.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.5, implying annual growth of 29.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AMC  AMCOR LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $15.84

Citi rates AMC as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi analysts are supportive of the company's newest acquisition. It is their view the integration of Sonoco Specialty Containers translates into much needed scale for the group's diversified products. In addition, the add-on brings the non-PET substrate solutions the analysts believe are needed to support growth in this sector.

Estimates for FY18-19 move up by 2% & 3% respectively. Citi has been a long term supporter of this company and management's strategy, and this remains the case. Target lifts to $17.95 from $17.20. Neutral.

Target price is $17.95 Current Price is $15.84 Difference: $2.11
If AMC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.38, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 57.32 cents and EPS of 84.21 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 58.69 cents and EPS of 93.08 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.7, implying annual growth of 13.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Credit Suisse rates AMC as Outperform (1) -

Amcor has acquired Sonoco's diversified rigid plastics business for US$280m. The company expects to achieve $50m in EBIT by FY20 from the business.

Credit Suisse expects net debt will likely exceed management's range of 2.25-2.75 times EBITDA in the first half of FY17 but concludes it can de-leverage by FY20 to around 2.1 times.

Target is raised to $16.90 from $16.70. Outperform retained.

Target price is $16.90 Current Price is $15.84 Difference: $1.06
If AMC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.38, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 62.78 cents and EPS of 83.92 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 68.24 cents and EPS of 92.44 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.7, implying annual growth of 13.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Deutsche Bank rates AMC as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

The acquisition of Sonoco's diversified plastics business for US$280m is a positive in Deutsche Bank's view as it is expected to be accretive by 3.5% and generate a pre-tax return on capital of 16.6%.

Deutsche Bank believes the acquisition will enhance scale and capabilities and upgrades the stock to Buy from Hold. Target rises to $17.35 from $16.45.

Target price is $17.35 Current Price is $15.84 Difference: $1.51
If AMC meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.38, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 61.42 cents and EPS of 85.98 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 69.61 cents and EPS of 96.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.7, implying annual growth of 13.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates AMC as Outperform (1) -

Amcor will acquire the plastics moulding business of Sonoco in the US. The acquisition will accelerate Amcor's rigid plastics shift towards higher margin diversified products containers alongside beverages, the broker notes.

Strong synergies are expected. The broker retains its Outperform rating, which already reflected both the solidity and defensiveness of the business and M&A optionality, of which this is an example. Target rises to $17.20 from $16.95.

Target price is $17.20 Current Price is $15.84 Difference: $1.36
If AMC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.38, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 59.92 cents and EPS of 84.48 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 67.56 cents and EPS of 95.13 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.7, implying annual growth of 13.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates AMC as Underweight (5) -

The company will purchase Sonoco's North American rigid plastics business. Morgan Stanley believes the apparent aggressiveness of Amcor's actions could suggest deeper underlying issues and it may be taking risks to deliver on its value creation targets.

The acquisition may make strategic sense but, from a pure financial perspective, Morgan Stanley finds the argument less compelling. After three years the acquisition is expected to deliver a return of 17-18%, which is below the 20% three-year hurdle that Amcor has long used as a criterion.

Price target $12.20. Rating Underweight. Sector view is Cautious.

Target price is $12.20 Current Price is $15.84 Difference: minus $3.64 (current price is over target).
If AMC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.38, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 46.40 cents and EPS of 62.78 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 80.63 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.7, implying annual growth of 13.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates AMC as Hold (3) -

The company will acquire Sonoco's rigid plastics operations for US$280m. Assuming the transaction closes in the first half of FY17, Ord Minnett estimates the acquisition will be around 1% accretive in FY17.

Ord Minnett expects debt will temporarily breach the top end of the leverage range but is unlikely to become an issue.

Hold rating retained. Price target is raised to $15.00 from $14.50.

Target price is $15.50 Current Price is $15.84 Difference: minus $0.34 (current price is over target).
If AMC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.38, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 61.42 cents and EPS of 76.43 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 66.88 cents and EPS of 92.81 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.7, implying annual growth of 13.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AWC  ALUMINA LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $1.38

Citi rates AWC as Neutral (3) -

Alumina Ltd and AWAC JV partner Alcoa have decided to solve their disagreements outside court, in exchange for allowing Alcoa to split its operations into two separate entities.

Alumina is arguably receiving increased influence over the management of the JV, opine Citi analysts, including a higher guaranteed payout of earnings/cash flow and offtake rights in the event of a change in control.

The latter might be a presage to a change in control over Alumina Ltd, speculate the analysts. Neutral rating retained. Price target unchanged at $1.30.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: minus $0.075 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.39, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Citi forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 6.69 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 45.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.5.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 4.78 cents and EPS of 3.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.6, implying annual growth of 33.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Deutsche Bank rates AWC as Hold (3) -

The amendment to the AWAC joint venture will provide AWC with a greater say in future investment and financial decisions, Deutsche Bank concludes. It will lift the onerous exclusivity provisions for potential acquirers of AWC as well.

The broker believes the amendments appear to make a take over of AWC more attractive and notes CITIC Resources holds 18% of the stock.

Still, the immediate benefits are difficult to quantify and the broker remains cautious about the alumina price in the second half.  Hold rating and $1.35 target retained.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: minus $0.025 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.39, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 8.19 cents and EPS of 1.37 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 100.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.5.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 6.82 cents and EPS of 5.46 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.6, implying annual growth of 33.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Macquarie rates AWC as Underperform (5) -

Alumina Ltd has agreed to settle and terminate litigation related to the pending Alcoa demerger. Alumina Ltd will get more say in decision making for the AWAC JV but not until after the demerger is complete, the broker notes.

It's an incremental positive, the broker suggests, and it does open the possibility of corporate action given Alumina Ltd becomes more attractive as a strategic investment. The broker's Underperform rating nevertheless reflects a negative view on alumina, the commodity. Target unchanged at $1.00.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: minus $0.375 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.39, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 5.73 cents and EPS of 4.91 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.5.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 3.69 cents and EPS of 2.05 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 67.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.6, implying annual growth of 33.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates AWC as Overweight (1) -

The AWAC joint venture has revised its terms, providing clearer distribution, more input on decisions and removing hurdles for potential acquirers of AWC, Morgan Stanley notes.

The broker does not alter its view of the assets, valuation or cash flow but does believe the change allows for strategic options which would have been difficult previously.

Overweight rating retained. Target is $1.70. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: $0.325
If AWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.39, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 6.83 cents and EPS of 2.73 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 50.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.5.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 9.56 cents and EPS of 6.83 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.6, implying annual growth of 33.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates AWC as Accumulate (2) -

The AWAC joint venture has agreed to changes to its agreement. Ord Minnett observes corporate appeal for AWC is improved with increased control of decision making and greater predictability for distributions.

The changes do not affect cash flow and earnings in the short term and the broker views them as value neutral. Accumulate rating and price target of $1.60 maintained.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: $0.225
If AWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.39, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 8.19 cents and EPS of 1.37 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 100.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.5.

Forecast for FY17:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 6.82 cents and EPS of 5.46 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.6, implying annual growth of 33.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates AWC as Neutral (3) -

AWC and Alcoa have amended the AWAC joint venture agreement. Future alumina/bauxite off-take rights are enabled if there is a change of control and exclusivity provisions have been terminated. AWC now has more say over acquisitions and/or divestiture. The poison pill is also removed.

UBS suspects some takeover premium may return to the stock as a result. While the broker does not believe the change will have an immediate impact on the ownership of AWC it could well mean the market attributes more value to the stock.

Neutral rating and $1.45 target retained.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: $0.075
If AWC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.39, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

UBS forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 8.19 cents and EPS of 2.73 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 50.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.5.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 8.19 cents and EPS of 9.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.6, implying annual growth of 33.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AZJ  AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation

Overnight Price: $4.41

Citi rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

Andrew Harding, formerly of Rio Tinto iron ore fame, will become the new CEO from 1st December onwards. Citi believes his expertise, and track record, should serve the company well in this low growth environment that makes cost reductions essential.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.41 Difference: $0.19
If AZJ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.57, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.50 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.2, implying annual growth of 1.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GTY  GATEWAY LIFESTYLE GROUP

Real Estate

Overnight Price: $2.35

UBS rates GTY as Buy (1) -

The company will buy Rockhampton North Retirement Resort for $10.25m. The park is a purpose built, mature manufactured home estate completed in 2016 with 146 sites.

UBS estimates gearing will move to around 20% post the acquisition. The broker observes the big picture is positive for the company with potential in expansions and further acquisitions. Buy rating and $2.75 target retained.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.35 Difference: $0.4
If GTY meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.69.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.82.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HUO  HUON AQUACULTURE GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverage & Tobacco

Overnight Price: $3.21

UPDATED

Credit Suisse rates HUO as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

FY16 results were weak, as expected. Credit Suisse remains convinced that earnings, balance sheet and the share price are all at a low point.

The broker observes the company is leveraged to the domestic wholesale channel, where pricing is very strong and has the advantage of re-directing 30% of FY16 volumes that went into export into domestic channels.

Hence, earnings-per-share growth is expected to be very strong for the next three years. Credit Suisse upgrades to Outperform from Neutral and raises the target to $3.75 from $3.60.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.21 Difference: $0.54
If HUO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 20.78 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.45.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 31.21 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.29.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ICQ  ICAR ASIA LIMITED

Media

Overnight Price: $0.36

Morgans rates ICQ as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

The company has raised $17.5m in new capital through a placement, which is expected to be sufficient to take it to the point of cash flow being generated in FY19.

Morgans reduces its target to 45c from 57c, as a result of the dilution from the issue. Rating is upgraded to Add from Hold now that the capital position is sound.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.095
If ICQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.40.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.88.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JHX  JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES N.V.

Materials

Overnight Price: $21.37

UBS rates JHX as Re-initiating coverage with Buy rating (1) -

UBS returns to cover James Hardie with a Buy rating and $25 target. The broker is introducing EBIT forecasts that are broadly in line with consensus in FY17-19.

The broker's margin assumptions are supported by the favourable housing cycle backdrop, tighter capacity utilisation and a benign outlook for input costs near term. The relative value appears reasonable to UBS and upside risk is seen outweighing the downside.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $21.37 Difference: $3.63
If JHX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.91, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 83.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.9.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 60.05 cents and EPS of 132.39 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 98.5, implying annual growth of 20.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KCN  KINGSGATE CONSOLIDATED LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $0.41

Macquarie - Cessation of coverage

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MQG  MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED

Diversified Financials

Overnight Price: $80.61

Deutsche Bank rates MQG as Buy (1) -

The sell down of Macquarie Atlas ((MQA)) securities by Macquarie Group is likely to result in gains on sale of $140m, Deutsche Bank estimates, thereby providing support for current FY17 guidance.

While the strong share price performance recently has delivered a re-rating to valuation, the stock remains attractive to the broker because of its resilient earnings and inexpensive metrics versus diversified financial stocks. Buy rating retained. Target rises to $84.00 from $80.50.

Target price is $84.00 Current Price is $80.61 Difference: $3.39
If MQG meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $73.82, suggesting downside of -9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 420.00 cents and EPS of 613.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 607.0, implying annual growth of -7.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 401.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 440.00 cents and EPS of 639.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 631.2, implying annual growth of 4.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 430.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Equal-weight (3) -

A gain on the sale of a 10% stake in Macquarie Atlas ((MQA)) increases the probability of earnings over $1bn in the first half for Macquarie Group, Morgan Stanley asserts, keeping it on track to meet FY17 guidance.

The broker estimates Macquarie Group will make a gain of $190m on the transaction, ensuring there will be increased investment income in asset management division this year. 

Equal-weight rating and In-Line sector view retained. Target is $68.00.

Target price is $68.00 Current Price is $80.61 Difference: minus $12.61 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $73.82, suggesting downside of -9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 400.00 cents and EPS of 574.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 607.0, implying annual growth of -7.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 401.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 400.00 cents and EPS of 585.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 631.2, implying annual growth of 4.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 430.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MTS  METCASH LIMITED

Food & Staples Retailing

Overnight Price: $2.09

Macquarie rates MTS as Reinstate Coverage: Outperform (1) -

The broker had been advising on the Home Timber & Hardware acquisition but now has returned from restriction to reinstate an Outperform rating. It's a strategically important transaction for Metcash, the broker suggests, helping to broaden the earnings profile and underpin growth potential.

Metcash has also been prudent with its balance sheet, the broker suggests, in raising equity and delaying dividends to provide the funding. Target rises to $2.54 from a prior $2.51.

Target price is $2.54 Current Price is $2.09 Difference: $0.45
If MTS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.21, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 21.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.0, implying annual growth of 9.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OSH  OIL SEARCH LIMITED

Energy

Overnight Price: $6.69

Citi rates OSH as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

The Oil & Gas sector has gone through weaker times and Citi analysts have grabbed the opportunity to raise their rating for Oil Search in response; to Neutral from Sell. Target remains unchanged at $7.01.

Target price is $7.01 Current Price is $6.69 Difference: $0.32
If OSH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.94, suggesting upside of 18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Citi forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 4.09 cents and EPS of 12.42 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 53.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 56.1.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 13.65 cents and EPS of 28.25 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.4, implying annual growth of 120.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PRY  PRIMARY HEALTH CARE LIMITED

Health Care Equipment & Services

Overnight Price: $3.83

UPDATED

Morgan Stanley rates PRY as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -

While it's still too early to call an inflection, Morgan Stanley notes the balance sheet is being repaired. The medical centre division remains an ongoing concern, but the broker suspects the market will look through the issues given regulatory risk is turning more positive.

The broker finds the valuation now undemanding and this leads to an upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight. Price target is raised to $4.68 from $3.77. In-Line sector view retained.

Target price is $4.68 Current Price is $3.83 Difference: $0.85
If PRY meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.96, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.50 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.80 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.5, implying annual growth of 9.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RWC  RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORPORATION LIMITED

Capital Goods

Overnight Price: $2.99

UPDATED

Deutsche Bank rates RWC as Initiation of coverage with Hold (3) -

Deutsche Bank initiates coverage on the manufacturer and supplier of fittings, pipes and thermostatic products to the plumbing industry, both retail and wholesale.

The US business is considered to have the greatest growth opportunity in pipes and fittings and the volume drivers are new residential construction and repairs and renovations.

Deutsche Bank commences coverage with a Hold rating and $2.87 target, noting the stock is currently trading at a 53% premium to the Australian peer group and a 45% premium to the international peer group on FY17 forecasts.

Target price is $2.87 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If RWC meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.14, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.2.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.7, implying annual growth of 14.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SFX  SHEFFIELD RESOURCES LIMITED

Materials

Overnight Price: $0.64

Macquarie - Cessation of coverage

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHL  SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Health Care Equipment & Services

Overnight Price: $22.53

Morgan Stanley rates SHL as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

The stock has risen 30% in the year to date and Morgan Stanley downgrades to Equal-weight from Overweight. The valuation now looks full and the risk/reward less attractive, although the growth outlook remains the same.

Funding risks have been allayed or delayed to FY18 but the broker remains cautious. Target is raised to $24.05 from $22.10. In-Line industry view retained.

Target price is $24.05 Current Price is $22.53 Difference: $1.52
If SHL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.86, suggesting downside of -3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 81.00 cents and EPS of 104.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 108.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 77.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.8.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 87.30 cents and EPS of 112.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 116.7, implying annual growth of 7.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 83.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUL  SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED

Retailing

Overnight Price: $10.78

UPDATED

Credit Suisse rates SUL as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Credit Suisse upgrades FY17 forecasts and downgrades FY18 and FY19 in the wake of the FY16 result. The broker expects profit growth is likely to return in FY17.

Beyond FY17 the important drivers are the evaluation and improvement required from the new format stores. The broker includes no development costs beyond the current group of stores nor any closure costs.

Credit Suisse also suspects there are downside risks to the sports division resulting in change in the competitive environment and Rebel's cost structure leaves it more vulnerable to low-cost competition.

Rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral on share price appreciation. Target is raised to $9.77 from $8.90.

Target price is $9.77 Current Price is $10.78 Difference: minus $1.01 (current price is over target).
If SUL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.84, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 44.68 cents and EPS of 64.02 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 49.69 cents and EPS of 71.16 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.3, implying annual growth of 14.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPM  TPG TELECOM LIMITED

Telecommunication Services

Overnight Price: $12.32

Macquarie rates TPM as Neutral (3) -

The Singapore regulator has revealed TPG Telecom is one of three operators applying to become the fourth operator in the country. This surprises the broker given TPG's greater focus on fixed line than on mobiles, and it was assumed the company's first offshore foray would be to buy an NZ mobile operator.

So were TPG to win, it would represent a ramp-up in mobiles. It would also increase uncertainty given a mature and competitive market, but the broker notes management has a good track record in capital allocation. Neutral and $11.55 target retained.

Target price is $11.55 Current Price is $12.32 Difference: minus $0.77 (current price is over target).
If TPM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.95, suggesting downside of -11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY16:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 14.90 cents and EPS of 42.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.6, implying annual growth of 51.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.1.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 18.70 cents and EPS of 53.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.2, implying annual growth of 13.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TWE  TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED

Food, Beverage & Tobacco

Overnight Price: $11.31

UPDATED

Credit Suisse rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Acquisition accounting for the Diageo wine brands should help reduce the cost of goods sold (COGS) per case in the first half.

This explains why, Credit Suisse suggests, the company achieved a significantly lower COGS/case in the second half of FY16 than investors were expecting.

The broker makes no changes to FY17 estimates. Neutral rating and $10.65 target retained.

Target price is $10.65 Current Price is $11.31 Difference: minus $0.66 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.41, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 35.83 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.5.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 40.34 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.1, implying annual growth of 18.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VRL  VILLAGE ROADSHOW LIMITED

Media

Overnight Price: $4.49

Citi rates VRL as Buy (1) -

Citi analysts have added more colour to the Gold Coast battle of the Theme Parcs visitors and to date Ardent Leisure is winning, despite significant investments made by competitor Village Roadshow.

Citi does take the view that, given Village is outspending Ardent Leisure with the latter's focus predominantly on rolling out more Main Event centres in the USA, Village Roadshow is likely to take back the momentum on the Gold Coast in FY17.

An overall positive view on Gold Coast tourism supports a positive investment view for both.

Target price is $6.05 Current Price is $4.49 Difference: $1.56
If VRL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.49, suggesting upside of 21.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY17:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Forecast for FY18:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.8, implying annual growth of 12.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WOW  WOOLWORTHS LIMITED

Food & Staples Retailing

Overnight Price: $23.98

Morgans rates WOW as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

FY16 results were largely as Morgans expected. The broker suspects the stock is close to the bottom, with new strategies seen gaining traction with customers, although earnings are expected to be constrained for a period.

The broker does not envisage much valuation upside, as any gains are likely to be reinvested to keep abreast of the competitive environment.

The broker considers the new plan outlined by CEO has prospects for returning the company to profit growth from FY18 but some patience is required. Rating is downgraded to Hold from Add. Target is reduced to $24.79 from $25.00.

Target price is $24.79 Current Price is $23.98 Difference: $0.81
If WOW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.21, suggesting downside of -11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 82.00 cents and EPS of 120.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 114.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 80.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 88.00 cents and EPS of 130.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 121.5, implying annual growth of 5.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 84.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Summaries
AAD - ARDENT LEISURE Buy - Citi Overnight Price $2.55
AMC - AMCOR Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $15.84
Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $15.84
Upgrade to Buy from Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $15.84
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $15.84
Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $15.84
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $15.84
AWC - ALUMINA Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $1.38
Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $1.38
Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.38
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $1.38
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $1.38
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $1.38
AZJ - AURIZON HOLDINGS Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $4.41
GTY - GATEWAY LIFESTYLE Buy - UBS Overnight Price $2.35
HUO - HUON AQUACULTURE Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $3.21
ICQ - ICAR ASIA Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $0.36
JHX - JAMES HARDIE Re-initiating coverage with Buy rating - UBS Overnight Price $21.37
KCN - KINGSGATE CONSOLIDATED Cessation of coverage - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.41
MQG - MACQUARIE GROUP Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $80.61
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $80.61
MTS - METCASH Reinstate Coverage: Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.09
OSH - OIL SEARCH Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - Citi Overnight Price $6.69
PRY - PRIMARY HEALTH CARE Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $3.83
RWC - RELIANCE WORLDWIDE Initiation of coverage with Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $2.99
SFX - SHEFFIELD RESOURCES Cessation of coverage - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.64
SHL - SONIC HEALTHCARE Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $22.53
SUL - SUPER RETAIL Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $10.78
TPM - TPG TELECOM Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $12.32
TWE - TREASURY WINE ESTATES Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $11.31
VRL - VILLAGE ROADSHOW Buy - Citi Overnight Price $4.49
WOW - WOOLWORTHS Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans Overnight Price $23.98
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

13

2. Accumulate

1

3. Hold

13

5. Sell

3

Monday 05 September 2016

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.